User avatar
qf789
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 9298
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:42 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 6:00 am

Former CX CEO Tony Tyler has been named a Qantas Board member

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... rd-member/
Forum Moderator
 
User avatar
qf789
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 9298
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:42 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 6:10 am

A couple of names have been mentioned for candidates of VA CEO

https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 500jp.html
Forum Moderator
 
User avatar
qf789
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 9298
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:42 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 6:13 am

ATSB has released interim report into MH pitot tube incident at BNE

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/inv ... -incident/
Forum Moderator
 
getluv
Posts: 549
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:11 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 6:58 am

qf789 wrote:
Some of the suggestions and commentary on VA are frankly getting a bit ridiculous

PER-HNL, AKL-LAX, SYD-SEA none of these are going to happen. I suggest you think about it a bit more carefully before throwing out routes here and there. VA's A332's are configured at 20J and 255Y so whatever routes they use them on in theory need to generate a return.

In regards to LAX - both MEL and BNE are at the right frequencies, SYD should be less than daily

In regards to HKG, go back to to why they started flying to HKG, it starts with a C. Their justification for this has been somewhat effective even though load factors could be better.

Domestically there is still a role for the A332's.

I am a strong believer that VA needs something in between the 737 and A332. The 737MAX10 is a good start but also think that the lower end of the NMA should be considered for the future. I would say that the 737MAX10 will primarily be used for trans con plus SYD-MEL. The 737MAX8 has the opportunity for new routes plus help improve operational performance on existing ones, BNE-PER comes to mind.

VA is starting to think out the box, recently with announced flights for NTL-AKL and PER-HBA. More routes should hopefully follow in time.

A332 utilisation is getting better since the launch of SYD-HKG.

738 utilisation will also increase with one particluar area of the domestic market to see an increase in activity in due course


Judging by their LFs, the frequencies to BNE and MEL are not ideal at all. Either they stick to a daily flight or ditch the planes altogether. They've taken QF on in terms of cabin interiors but not on scheduling.

A332 utilisation would be great if they were making money. The whole HKG exercise just reeks of two companies who were desperate. HNA trying to get around the AU-HKG bilateral and VA needing the cash.

I wouldn't call NTL-AKL and PER-HBA outside the box . They've basically taken money upfront from the State Government/Airport operators in order to start these routes.
I'm that bad type.
 
Qantas16
Posts: 711
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2016 3:51 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:13 am

getluv wrote:
Judging by their LFs, the frequencies to BNE and MEL are not ideal at all. Either they stick to a daily flight or ditch the planes altogether. They've taken QF on in terms of cabin interiors but not on scheduling.

A332 utilisation would be great if they were making money. The whole HKG exercise just reeks of two companies who were desperate. HNA trying to get around the AU-HKG bilateral and VA needing the cash.

I wouldn't call NTL-AKL and PER-HBA outside the box . They've basically taken money upfront from the State Government/Airport operators in order to start these routes.


I agree. They should revert to daily BNE-LAX, SYD-LAX and with the 5th frame they can add an extra 3x frequencies on SYD-LAX (this makes it easier if they have a frame in MX to cut back to just the daily BNE/SYD-LAX flights. I'm not sure on the A332 AKL-LAX idea but if it was to be operated, it could then be done as a MEL-AKL-LAX flight (therefore still offering MEL-LAX, although with one-stop). I agree with the other poster that this route would do OK given the DL passengers who would utilise it and would focus VA on that LAX hub for their international operations.

VA is never going to make money if their international network is designed to feed partner carriers. Whilst having some feed will certainly help them, they are better off focusing on markets that have significant O&D (like LAX). SEA is creative but the 77W is too big for them and would be better suited to a 787.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7052
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:16 am

tullamarine wrote:
Internationally, there are limited options availabke for them. They tried the virtual network, with partners doing much of the flying, but that increases the risks if those partnerships falter. They had next to no brand awareness in many of those international markets, which makes it hard to find ways to enter what are often crowded competitive environments already.

The reality is that I struggle to see what VA can do next on the international front. The LAX and HKG focus will likely be all it can do, given the investments in each market so far.

Even with the 77W not being the ideal plane for their needs these days, the reality is that getting a new long haul fleet though is likely a no-go given their financial position. This need to be more fiscally conservative was even seen as a deal breaker for the MAX fleet introduction by some of their investors and leadership team. Maximising the existing fleet was seen as a better overall strategy by a few, reducing leasing costs as the new fleet would likely not be cost effective.

International operations are hard for a new entrant because in the major markets the long time incumbent, in this case Qantas who received most of its rights way back when it was the national flag carrier, uses all of the existing rights on the prestigious routes. VA has to wait for new rights to open up under the various bilaterals and then has to potentially negotiate a way through finding suitable slots etc. Of course, there are unused rights under various bilaterals but that tends to be because there isn't currently sufficient demand to justify launching such services. These days there are new open markets particularly into China but the cost-base of competing Chinese carriers means AU airlines will only ever operate to a few of these destinations.

LAX and HKG are probably all they should attempt in the medium to long range market for the time being. Their codeshares with SQ and EY offer a good option into Europe and Asia even though they need to work out their lounge offering a bit better.

The 77W is not ideal but, as has been pointed out, 11 years ago when they were ordered the 77W and A346 were the main games in town. The 744 was already past its best (and was even more unsuited than the 777) and the 787 and A350 were still basically paper airplanes years away from release. Of course, there were the smaller A345 and 77L but these both had trip costs pretty much the same as their larger brethren without the capacity upside.


I was thinking about the long haul fleet and do wonder if they would have been better to lease in the short term back in 2007 a few cheap leases 744’s, fuel did go up but knowing the 787/350 were only a few years off. There weren’t to many 77E’s on the second hand market then, They did I believe consider the 77L but decided 77W operating costs justified the larger frame. Maybe 343’s there might have been a small number on the second hand market then? 346’s were a bit big probably.
 
User avatar
qf789
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 9298
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:42 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:53 am

REX posts 34% lift in full year profits

http://australianaviation.com.au/2018/0 ... ar-profit/
Forum Moderator
 
User avatar
eta unknown
Posts: 2462
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2001 5:03 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:06 am

I had a chuckle reading that losses were attributed to the operational start up costs of the resumed MEL-LAX... gee... doesn't VA already have facilities in place already at LAX & MEL?!? But hey, a good enough excuse to show a loss...
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4304
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:06 am

Qantas16 wrote:
They should revert to daily BNE-LAX, SYD-LAX and with the 5th frame they can add an extra 3x frequencies on SYD-LAX (this makes it easier if they have a frame in MX to cut back to just the daily BNE/SYD-LAX flights).

I doubt SYD - LAX needs to be boosted from 14x to 17x weekly in the DL-VA JV - 14x weekly should be more than enough to capture that market? This is particularly so, when QF and AA only fly the route 7x weekly each.

Qantas16 wrote:
SEA is creative but the 77W is too big ...

A 789 or 359 would be better, I agree, but the 77W isn't a death warrant for the route's viability, IMO - remember, there'd be some big transfer corridors through SEA not possible through LAX on DL, like IAD/ORD/YVR.

Cheers,

C.
 
TasFlyer
Posts: 181
Joined: Sat Mar 17, 2018 4:55 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:14 am

planemanofnz wrote:
Ryanair01 wrote:
Tiger losses +50% to $36m

Yikes - what can they do to turn Tiger around?

Cheers,

C.


Well, they've just added a third HBA-MEL flight on peak days over Christmas/New Year, so it looks like they're at least attempting to optimise their network according to seasonal demand.
 
TasFlyer
Posts: 181
Joined: Sat Mar 17, 2018 4:55 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:23 am

getluv wrote:

I wouldn't call NTL-AKL and PER-HBA outside the box . They've basically taken money upfront from the State Government/Airport operators in order to start these routes.


Well, VA has already added extra flights on PER-HBA despite it being yet to launch, so they are clearly on a winner with this one.
 
TasFlyer
Posts: 181
Joined: Sat Mar 17, 2018 4:55 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:30 am

qf789 wrote:
Qantas announces major lounge investment program

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... t-program/


Some rumors regarding the above HBA lounge upgrade: apparently the terminal is being extended which will allow QF's HBA lounge to triple in size. There is no word yet on whether space for a VA lounge, which was promised years ago, will be found as part of this extension. Also at HBA there are significant earthworks being undertaken which appear to be an extension of the apron thus allowing the accommodation of more jets.
 
User avatar
qf789
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 9298
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:42 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:17 am

getluv wrote:

Judging by their LFs, the frequencies to BNE and MEL are not ideal at all. Either they stick to a daily flight or ditch the planes altogether. They've taken QF on in terms of cabin interiors but not on scheduling.

A332 utilisation would be great if they were making money. The whole HKG exercise just reeks of two companies who were desperate. HNA trying to get around the AU-HKG bilateral and VA needing the cash.

I wouldn't call NTL-AKL and PER-HBA outside the box . They've basically taken money upfront from the State Government/Airport operators in order to start these routes.


Having actually seen their LF's on the individual routes on a daily basis BNE and MEL are not the ones with the poor load factor, its SYD that is the problem. As I originally stated SYD needs to be reduced and it definitely does not need to be increased. The other option is to get rid of the 77W's and get something smaller, something such as a 789.

I also dont buy the argument that it needs to be daily or nothing. Airlines such as QF operate flights less than daily that are profitable, I dont see why VA cant do something similar, in the past it has not been executed properly by VA.
Forum Moderator
 
Qantas16
Posts: 711
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2016 3:51 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:29 am

planemanofnz wrote:
Qantas16 wrote:
They should revert to daily BNE-LAX, SYD-LAX and with the 5th frame they can add an extra 3x frequencies on SYD-LAX (this makes it easier if they have a frame in MX to cut back to just the daily BNE/SYD-LAX flights).

I doubt SYD - LAX needs to be boosted from 14x to 17x weekly in the DL-VA JV - 14x weekly should be more than enough to capture that market? This is particularly so, when QF and AA only fly the route 7x weekly each.

Qantas16 wrote:
SEA is creative but the 77W is too big ...

A 789 or 359 would be better, I agree, but the 77W isn't a death warrant for the route's viability, IMO - remember, there'd be some big transfer corridors through SEA not possible through LAX on DL, like IAD/ORD/YVR.

Cheers,

C.


Fair, maybe SYD-LAX doesn't need the capacity but given they only have 5 aircraft and BNE/SYD-LAX requires 2 aircraft each to operate daily, what do they do with the 5th? They could take over some of DL's flights so DL operate 4x weekly and VA operates 10x weekly or something like.

I just dont see it for SEA. The 77W seems to big for them on their LAX flights so why would it be ideal for SEA which has a lot less O&D and I'm not sure the transfer traffic makes up for that.
 
QF742
Posts: 171
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2018 1:00 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:10 am

qf789 wrote:
getluv wrote:

Judging by their LFs, the frequencies to BNE and MEL are not ideal at all. Either they stick to a daily flight or ditch the planes altogether. They've taken QF on in terms of cabin interiors but not on scheduling.

A332 utilisation would be great if they were making money. The whole HKG exercise just reeks of two companies who were desperate. HNA trying to get around the AU-HKG bilateral and VA needing the cash.

I wouldn't call NTL-AKL and PER-HBA outside the box . They've basically taken money upfront from the State Government/Airport operators in order to start these routes.


Having actually seen their LF's on the individual routes on a daily basis BNE and MEL are not the ones with the poor load factor, its SYD that is the problem. As I originally stated SYD needs to be reduced and it definitely does not need to be increased. The other option is to get rid of the 77W's and get something smaller, something such as a 789.

I also dont buy the argument that it needs to be daily or nothing. Airlines such as QF operate flights less than daily that are profitable, I dont see why VA cant do something similar, in the past it has not been executed properly by VA.


What is the reason then to keep SYD-LAX at daily? They could leverage the DL JV to collectively offer daily flights from BNE, MEL and SYD (with VA offering 4 weekly out of SYD as well?).

Perhaps yield on the SYD flight is higher despite the lower LF. Any idea on how full J class goes out on the LAX flights?
 
VHZNE
Posts: 73
Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:56 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:18 am

Evening all.

Just wondering if anyone has the schedule/dates that QF55/56, BNE-SYD or SYD-BNE is running domestically with the 747?

Thanks.
 
xiaotung
Posts: 1016
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2006 7:58 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:44 am

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... s-interest

This is the first article I have seen to indicate that HNA may be selling their VA stakes. What the article fails to mention is neither SQ nor Nanshan can buy HNA's stakes without launching a take over bid.
Last edited by xiaotung on Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4304
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:46 am

Qantas16 wrote:
SEA ... which has a lot less O&D and I'm not sure the transfer traffic makes up for that.

Once LAX's O&D is divided up between all the carriers, the differential with SEA's O&D for VA would be less. Add to that, SEA offers a lot of chunky DL connection markets that LAX simply doesn't, including ORD, IAD and YVR, on top of many niche ones, like ANC, YEG and YYC.

VA could mitigate the risk around SEA in a number of ways, including 1) starting at just 3x weekly (which they can, as it's not as frequency-sensitive as LAX), and 2) making it seasonal, as a way to free up LAX capacity during peak season. DL could even operate it, for part of the year.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4304
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:47 am

qf789 wrote:
Having actually seen their LF's on the individual routes on a daily basis BNE and MEL are not the ones with the poor load factor, its SYD that is the problem. As I originally stated SYD needs to be reduced and it definitely does not need to be increased.

qf789 wrote:
I also dont buy the argument that it needs to be daily or nothing.

SYD is by far the most business-focused and premium of the markets, which means 1) it doesn't necessarily need a load factor higher than the others, as its yield (both passenger and cargo) is likely greater, and 2) the market is much more frequency-sensitive, requiring the daily offering.

Cheers,

C.
Last edited by planemanofnz on Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
QF744ER
Posts: 395
Joined: Mon Jun 21, 2004 7:59 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:49 am

There was talk not too long back about VA looking to lease/acquire some additional A330's think it was A332's sourced from EY or A333's sourced from a Chinese carrier guessing the HNA group.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4304
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:20 pm

QF744ER wrote:
There was talk not too long back about VA looking to lease/acquire some additional A330's ...

There's been a lot of 'talk' from VA about various expansion plans, with much of this not followed through - for example, another suggestion was that VA was going to expand to PEK after HKG, but AFAIK, we still haven't heard anything about that? Slot restrictions?

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4304
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:22 pm

xiaotung wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-30/hna-s-virgin-australia-stake-is-said-to-draw-bidders-interest

This is the first article I have seen to indicate that HNA may be selling their VA stakes. What the article fails to mention is neither SQ nor Nanshan can buy HNA's stakes without launching a take over bid.

... and to think VA said this only a year ago about its HNA investment:

"The strength of the Chinese is that they're long term investors; they're financial investors that believe they'll get a very good financial return from investing in a growth story" ...

:lol:

See: https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... wl6oc.html.

Cheers,

C.
 
Obzerva
Posts: 424
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:48 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:24 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
QF744ER wrote:
There was talk not too long back about VA looking to lease/acquire some additional A330's ...

There's been a lot of 'talk' from VA about various expansion plans, with much of this not followed through - for example, another suggestion was that VA was going to expand to PEK after HKG, but AFAIK, we still haven't heard anything about that? Slot restrictions?

Cheers,

C.


Well if they wait another year on that one, Daxing will be opening, so I’d imagine slots would not be an issue then.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4304
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:29 pm

Obzerva wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
QF744ER wrote:
There was talk not too long back about VA looking to lease/acquire some additional A330's ...

There's been a lot of 'talk' from VA about various expansion plans, with much of this not followed through - for example, another suggestion was that VA was going to expand to PEK after HKG, but AFAIK, we still haven't heard anything about that? Slot restrictions?

Cheers,

C.


Well if they wait another year on that one, Daxing will be opening, so I’d imagine slots would not be an issue then.

AFAIK, it's unclear whether HU will relocate there from PEK or not. I really only see Beijing happening for VA if HNA remains a shareholder, in which case VA would have to fly to whichever airport HU is at. Would they have any spare 332 capacity for this?

Cheers,

C.
 
timtam
Posts: 250
Joined: Tue Nov 19, 2013 2:02 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:41 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
Beyond moving to JVs and picking up more flying and revenue of their own (which their own, doubtful their owners would be keen) what else can they do?

The HNA Group plans to divest its HX stake (though, this is being delayed by the death of one of HNA's top executives). As such, I wouldn't be surprised if VA shifts their Asia focus from HKG to SIN in the coming years. SIN is closer to Australia, so VA could feasibly use MAX's to supplement or take-over existing SQ routes, like CBR - SIN, and/or to launch new ones, like NTL - SIN or TSV - SIN. In turn, their 332's could be used to supplement SQ's capacity at SYD, MEL, BNE and PER (VA's SQ European demand might get a boost if VA's EY European demand dies down, given EY's cuts), and/or relieve some SQ wide-bodies for deployment to other markets. SQ has shown that it's willing to give up some of its frequencies to JV partners and have product differentiation on a route - for example, on AKL - SIN with NZ, which has been successful and is being boosted from 2x to 3x daily flights. SQ's NZ model could equally be applied to VA, no? From HNA's perspective, it could channel its Chinese passengers through SIN to VA, if need be, still getting that Australian connectivity.

Cheers,

C.


In another thread it was noted that QF was one of the parties that was evaluating purchasing HX from the HNA Group.
 
timtam
Posts: 250
Joined: Tue Nov 19, 2013 2:02 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:49 pm

Good article in the Australian Financial Review about Qantas and Project Sunrise. It is behind a paywall but here is the link anyway:

https://www.afr.com/business/transport/aviation/the-20hour-flight-is-coming-qantas-ceo-says-plane-makers-have-succeeded-20180829-h14pl7

Quick summary:

A year after Qantas chief executive officer Alan Joyce publicly challenged Boeing and Airbus to design a plane capable of making a viable direct flight from Sydney to London or New York, he says the manufacturers have succeeded.

"We're now comfortable that we think we have vehicles that could do it," Joyce said in an interview in Qantas's central Sydney offices.
.....

"We're challenging ourselves to think outside the box," he said. "Would you have the space used for other activities - exercise, bar, creche, sleeping areas and berths? Boeing and Airbus have been actually quite creative in coming up with ideas."
Qantas is sizing up the long-range Airbus A350 against Boeing's 777X and executives from both manufacturers flew to Sydney to make presentations. Joyce plans to place an order next year and says neither supplier has its nose in front.
......
The routes are so long that Qantas needs sign-off from regulators and a new agreement with pilots. Joyce isn't deterred.

"I'm actually confident that it will get there and we will have aircraft in 2022," he said.
 
HM7
Posts: 116
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:01 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 2:12 pm

Anyone know why QF16 diverted HNL?
CRJ200, Q400, E175, E195, MD88, MD90, A320, A332, A380, B717, B734, B738, B739, B752, B762, B763ER, B789, B744, B744ER
 
getluv
Posts: 549
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:11 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 2:14 pm

Qantas16 wrote:
getluv wrote:
Judging by their LFs, the frequencies to BNE and MEL are not ideal at all. Either they stick to a daily flight or ditch the planes altogether. They've taken QF on in terms of cabin interiors but not on scheduling.

A332 utilisation would be great if they were making money. The whole HKG exercise just reeks of two companies who were desperate. HNA trying to get around the AU-HKG bilateral and VA needing the cash.

I wouldn't call NTL-AKL and PER-HBA outside the box . They've basically taken money upfront from the State Government/Airport operators in order to start these routes.


I agree. They should revert to daily BNE-LAX, SYD-LAX and with the 5th frame they can add an extra 3x frequencies on SYD-LAX (this makes it easier if they have a frame in MX to cut back to just the daily BNE/SYD-LAX flights. I'm not sure on the A332 AKL-LAX idea but if it was to be operated, it could then be done as a MEL-AKL-LAX flight (therefore still offering MEL-LAX, although with one-stop). I agree with the other poster that this route would do OK given the DL passengers who would utilise it and would focus VA on that LAX hub for their international operations.

VA is never going to make money if their international network is designed to feed partner carriers. Whilst having some feed will certainly help them, they are better off focusing on markets that have significant O&D (like LAX). SEA is creative but the 77W is too big for them and would be better suited to a 787.


Until VA can do the basics right, they should just let the big boys play. VA operate in a virtual duopoly and can't make a cent.

qf789 wrote:
getluv wrote:

Judging by their LFs, the frequencies to BNE and MEL are not ideal at all. Either they stick to a daily flight or ditch the planes altogether. They've taken QF on in terms of cabin interiors but not on scheduling.

A332 utilisation would be great if they were making money. The whole HKG exercise just reeks of two companies who were desperate. HNA trying to get around the AU-HKG bilateral and VA needing the cash.

I wouldn't call NTL-AKL and PER-HBA outside the box . They've basically taken money upfront from the State Government/Airport operators in order to start these routes.


Having actually seen their LF's on the individual routes on a daily basis BNE and MEL are not the ones with the poor load factor, its SYD that is the problem. As I originally stated SYD needs to be reduced and it definitely does not need to be increased. The other option is to get rid of the 77W's and get something smaller, something such as a 789.

I also dont buy the argument that it needs to be daily or nothing. Airlines such as QF operate flights less than daily that are profitable, I dont see why VA cant do something similar, in the past it has not been executed properly by VA.


To get an average of 65% LF between Australia-LAX, the SYD route must be flying sub-50% if MEL/BNE-LAX are 80-90% full. Sorry, I highly doubt that. If that was the case they would have canned SYD flights by now and made BNE and MEL daily on their own, while DL flew the rest.

The non-daily flights offered by QF are mostly leisure destinations. Even then most of the destinations they've slowly built frequencies over the past few years. Look at SYD-MNL for instance.

TasFlyer wrote:
getluv wrote:

I wouldn't call NTL-AKL and PER-HBA outside the box . They've basically taken money upfront from the State Government/Airport operators in order to start these routes.


Well, VA has already added extra flights on PER-HBA despite it being yet to launch, so they are clearly on a winner with this one.


Even though seasonal increases are nothing special, I hope it is a winner especially after the whole NZ debacle.
I'm that bad type.
 
ZuluAlpha
Posts: 327
Joined: Sun Mar 21, 2010 7:22 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:19 pm

HM7 wrote:
Anyone know why QF16 diverted HNL?


Medical
Flown on:_CRJ, CR7 D10 DHT DH8, DH2, DH3, DH4, EMB, E45, E75, E90, F28 J32 M80 SH6 320, 32B, 332, 333, 380, 717, 732, 733, 734, 73H, 743, 744, 752 762, 763, 772, 77W
 
Obzerva
Posts: 424
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:48 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:02 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
Obzerva wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
There's been a lot of 'talk' from VA about various expansion plans, with much of this not followed through - for example, another suggestion was that VA was going to expand to PEK after HKG, but AFAIK, we still haven't heard anything about that? Slot restrictions?

Cheers,

C.


Well if they wait another year on that one, Daxing will be opening, so I’d imagine slots would not be an issue then.

AFAIK, it's unclear whether HU will relocate there from PEK or not. I really only see Beijing happening for VA if HNA remains a shareholder, in which case VA would have to fly to whichever airport HU is at. Would they have any spare 332 capacity for this?

Cheers,

C.


Sorry should have made myself clearer, agree that VA need to fly wherever HU is, however I was thinking whether that’s PEK or Daxing, with other airlines moving over to Daxing, slot availability should open up at PEK.

As far as A330s, they’ll either need to lease a few more frames, or Trans con flying will lose a number of A330s.
When’s the new J seat arrive for the 737s for PER? Similar timing as the first of the MAX’s? Which is late 2019, around when Daxing opens. There could be a few things lining up there unless I have my dates wrong (which I could do)
 
undertheradar
Posts: 405
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 1:02 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:13 pm

TasFlyer wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Qantas announces major lounge investment program

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... t-program/


Some rumors regarding the above HBA lounge upgrade: apparently the terminal is being extended which will allow QF's HBA lounge to triple in size. There is no word yet on whether space for a VA lounge, which was promised years ago, will be found as part of this extension. Also at HBA there are significant earthworks being undertaken which appear to be an extension of the apron thus allowing the accommodation of more jets.


Great extra info TasFlyer :) Looks like airport 'owners' finally opening their wallets/committing. . Tasmania is a gem of Australia and the lack spending on (tourism) infrastructure is stunting its growth. I hope HBA becomes an INTERNATIONAL port for passenger flights too. You guys down there deserve a larger piece of the 'tourism pie' (and more govt support/investment for services in Tasmania..but thats another issue not for this forum)
 
User avatar
CraigAnderson
Posts: 319
Joined: Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:28 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:55 am

"Singapore Airlines is believed to be eyeing an increased stake in Virgin Australia through a bid for the 19.8% shareholding of China's HNA Group"

https://www.ausbt.com.au/singapore-airl ... -australia

SQ has 20% already, if it buys the HNA stake it would be almost 40%, isn't there some point at which a dramatically increased shareholding triggers some take-over clause?
 
User avatar
CraigAnderson
Posts: 319
Joined: Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:28 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:57 am

qf789 wrote:
Former CX CEO Tony Tyler has been named a Qantas Board member

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... rd-member/


Really smart move, going to really help open us Asia for Qantas but also bring a lot of extra aviation business experience to the board.
 
User avatar
qf789
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 9298
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:42 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:57 am

Here is the first look at ADL's new airport hotel

https://twitter.com/7NewsSydney/status/ ... 8247245824
Forum Moderator
 
aryonoco
Posts: 677
Joined: Fri May 11, 2012 1:51 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:00 am

Qantas16 wrote:
I just dont see it for SEA.



VA needs to do something different, and I think SEA might very well be it.

There is one factor that changes SEA in the medium term, and that is Amazon. It's a nearly trillion dollar company, the world's biggest retailer, and as we know setting up its own freight network in the US.

Amazon starts slow in a market and gradually builds up, so for now their Australian presence is rather tiny, but history shows that this won't last long. The C-suits will of course fly private, but there is going to be a lot of higher level managers who will now be making a lot more trips to Australia. That should provide a solid basis for the front of the plane, and the increasing cargo demand with their warehouses in Sydney and Melbourne may very well take care of the belly of the plane. Combine that with DL's network on the other side for Y passengers for the rest of the US, and suddenly the proposition isn't so ridiculous anymore.

I personally know two friends in the IT sector who have taken up jobs with Amazon (in its AWS division) and have moved to Seattle in the last 12 months. Amazon has contracts with multiple recruiting agencies here and is actively headhunting Aussie software engineers and system admins. I know this is just anecdotal, but when I add it all up, I think the case for SEA is stronger than many people assume here.
 
User avatar
qf789
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 9298
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:42 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:11 am

Today marks 18 years since Virgin first started services in Australia, the first being BNE-SYD

https://twitter.com/BrisbaneAirport/sta ... 6503257088
Forum Moderator
 
Gemuser
Posts: 5026
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 31, 2018 4:25 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
"Singapore Airlines is believed to be eyeing an increased stake in Virgin Australia through a bid for the 19.8% shareholding of China's HNA Group"

https://www.ausbt.com.au/singapore-airl ... -australia

SQ has 20% already, if it buys the HNA stake it would be almost 40%, isn't there some point at which a dramatically increased shareholding triggers some take-over clause?

SQ owns no more than 19.99% of VA becase 20% is the take over threshold. If you go over that you have to bid for the rest of the share, there are different ways to do that.

Gemuser
 
qf002
Posts: 3595
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 11:14 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:07 am

aryonoco wrote:
suddenly the proposition isn't so ridiculous anymore.


I’m all aboard with a SYD-SEA service but VA doesn’t have a snowflakes chance in hell of being the ones to pull it off. They can’t even fill flights to LAX and you think they’ll be able to sell 300+ seats a day into SEA?

It’s a route for a QF 789 or a DL A359.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3308
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:22 am

Gemuser wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
"Singapore Airlines is believed to be eyeing an increased stake in Virgin Australia through a bid for the 19.8% shareholding of China's HNA Group"

https://www.ausbt.com.au/singapore-airl ... -australia

SQ has 20% already, if it buys the HNA stake it would be almost 40%, isn't there some point at which a dramatically increased shareholding triggers some take-over clause?

SQ owns no more than 19.99% of VA becase 20% is the take over threshold. If you go over that you have to bid for the rest of the share, there are different ways to do that.

Gemuser


What is the limit of VA is SQ allowed to own? Or does Australia allow an domestic airline to be fully foreign owned?
 
NTLDaz
Posts: 391
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:56 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:25 am

zkncj wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
"Singapore Airlines is believed to be eyeing an increased stake in Virgin Australia through a bid for the 19.8% shareholding of China's HNA Group"

https://www.ausbt.com.au/singapore-airl ... -australia

SQ has 20% already, if it buys the HNA stake it would be almost 40%, isn't there some point at which a dramatically increased shareholding triggers some take-over clause?

SQ owns no more than 19.99% of VA becase 20% is the take over threshold. If you go over that you have to bid for the rest of the share, there are different ways to do that.

Gemuser


What is the limit of VA is SQ allowed to own? Or does Australia allow an domestic airline to be fully foreign owned?


Fully foreign owned. Tiger started off 100% Singaporean and VA is virtually fully foreign owned. They have a structure in place to get around this for international flights.
 
smi0006
Posts: 2406
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:27 am

I’ve seen a couple of posts around QF being interested for QF to purchase HX I think it is. Any ideas where this rumour started circulating? Would be curious to see how they could if they couldn’t get JQ HKG off the ground? Rebrand it as JQ, or QFs red roo was it? Asian full service venture? That would really kill the CX-QF relationship.
 
aryonoco
Posts: 677
Joined: Fri May 11, 2012 1:51 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:32 am

qf002 wrote:
aryonoco wrote:
suddenly the proposition isn't so ridiculous anymore.


I’m all aboard with a SYD-SEA service but VA doesn’t have a snowflakes chance in hell of being the ones to pull it off. They can’t even fill flights to LAX and you think they’ll be able to sell 300+ seats a day into SEA?

It’s a route for a QF 789 or a DL A359.


I don't think SEA would work without a partner on the other side. And QF would be better off sending its aircraft to AA fortress hubs, SYD-ORD and MEL-DFW would surely be higher priorities.

DL could do it, but Pacific is not a focus for them. This really is VA's opportunity I think. How they can do it with their current aircraft I have no idea, this is where a little bit of creative thinking/accounting might be required. Can a A332 do SYD-SEA? Maybe sell one of the 77W's and get a couple of A332.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3308
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:25 am

aryonoco wrote:

DL could do it, but Pacific is not a focus for them. This really is VA's opportunity I think. How they can do it with their current aircraft I have no idea, this is where a little bit of creative thinking/accounting might be required. Can a A332 do SYD-SEA? Maybe sell one of the 77W's and get a couple of A332.


An a332 can't do SYD-LAX, so it wont be able todo SYD-SEA (well with an profitable load) or running out of gas half between HNL and SEA.
 
ArtV
Posts: 78
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 2:29 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:26 am

Gemuser wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
"Singapore Airlines is believed to be eyeing an increased stake in Virgin Australia through a bid for the 19.8% shareholding of China's HNA Group"

https://www.ausbt.com.au/singapore-airl ... -australia

SQ has 20% already, if it buys the HNA stake it would be almost 40%, isn't there some point at which a dramatically increased shareholding triggers some take-over clause?

SQ owns no more than 19.99% of VA becase 20% is the take over threshold. If you go over that you have to bid for the rest of the share, there are different ways to do that.

Gemuser


Shareholders can "creep" above the 20% threshold slowly - up to 3% per year or similar - without making a takeover offer.
 
User avatar
RyanairGuru
Posts: 8046
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:48 am

aryonoco wrote:
qf002 wrote:
aryonoco wrote:
suddenly the proposition isn't so ridiculous anymore.


I’m all aboard with a SYD-SEA service but VA doesn’t have a snowflakes chance in hell of being the ones to pull it off. They can’t even fill flights to LAX and you think they’ll be able to sell 300+ seats a day into SEA?

It’s a route for a QF 789 or a DL A359.


I don't think SEA would work without a partner on the other side. And QF would be better off sending its aircraft to AA fortress hubs, SYD-ORD and MEL-DFW would surely be higher priorities.

DL could do it, but Pacific is not a focus for them. This really is VA's opportunity I think. How they can do it with their current aircraft I have no idea, this is where a little bit of creative thinking/accounting might be required. Can a A332 do SYD-SEA? Maybe sell one of the 77W's and get a couple of A332.


With Alaska Airlines on board QF could make it work. If the AA JV isn’t approved I could see it happening on a QF 787. It would be less risky IMHO than ORD if he JV isn’t in place. QF and AS already have a large codeshare partnership.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
qf002
Posts: 3595
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 11:14 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:07 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
[With Alaska Airlines on board QF could make it work. If the AA JV isn’t approved I could see it happening on a QF 787. It would be less risky IMHO than ORD if he JV isn’t in place. QF and AS already have a large codeshare partnership.


Alan Joyce confirmed as much last week, if the JV doesn’t get approval then they will drop plans for ORD and go to SEA instead.

As for VA, you do not build an airline on one route. They need to take a big picture view of their long-haul operations and find a new niche or strategy that has a pathway to growth. The 77W operation across the Pacific isn’t headed anywhere anytime soon and the A330 operation to HKG isn’t either given the bloodbath that is China these days.

Move to a fleet of 20J/20W/260Y 789s and fly them at lower frequency to cities with premium leisure demand, ie YVR, LAS, HNL, CTS, HKT, SFO, DEN, CPT etc (all hypothetical examples!) as well as the daily service to core cities like LAX and HKG. There is a space in the market for a carrier that doesn’t just pander to corporate contracts at every turn and is agile with moving capacity around the network in response to seasonal demand and forward bookings.
 
TasFlyer
Posts: 181
Joined: Sat Mar 17, 2018 4:55 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:45 pm

undertheradar wrote:
TasFlyer wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Qantas announces major lounge investment program

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... t-program/


Some rumors regarding the above HBA lounge upgrade: apparently the terminal is being extended which will allow QF's HBA lounge to triple in size. There is no word yet on whether space for a VA lounge, which was promised years ago, will be found as part of this extension. Also at HBA there are significant earthworks being undertaken which appear to be an extension of the apron thus allowing the accommodation of more jets.


Great extra info TasFlyer :) Looks like airport 'owners' finally opening their wallets/committing. . Tasmania is a gem of Australia and the lack spending on (tourism) infrastructure is stunting its growth. I hope HBA becomes an INTERNATIONAL port for passenger flights too. You guys down there deserve a larger piece of the 'tourism pie' (and more govt support/investment for services in Tasmania..but thats another issue not for this forum)


Yes, for a while there growth was limited by a shortage of hotel rooms; that has now been addressed and the bottleneck has shifted to the number of jets HBA can handle. Hopefully the expanded apron will be ready for peak season. It will be interesting to see what HBA's revised master plan has in store. Growth is ongoing with VA and TT especially being rather aggressive in scheduling extra flights. So far the QF group is yet to respond, but with their 717 and 737 issues maybe they are hamstrung? Or maybe they require the completion of additional bays before they commit to more flights? The QF group schedule for NW18-19 looks lighter than previous years, but perhaps it hasn't been updated yet? If they keep the last JQ MEL-HBA flight departing at 4PM then they will surely cede market share to VA group.
 
downdata
Posts: 570
Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2016 2:38 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:42 pm

qf002 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
[With Alaska Airlines on board QF could make it work. If the AA JV isn’t approved I could see it happening on a QF 787. It would be less risky IMHO than ORD if he JV isn’t in place. QF and AS already have a large codeshare partnership.


Move to a fleet of 20J/20W/260Y 789s and fly them at lower frequency to cities with premium leisure demand, ie YVR, LAS, HNL, CTS, HKT, SFO, DEN, CPT etc (all hypothetical examples!) as well as the daily service to core cities like LAX and HKG. There is a space in the market for a carrier that doesn’t just pander to corporate contracts at every turn and is agile with moving capacity around the network in response to seasonal demand and forward bookings.


I presume you are going to fund the couple of billions to acquire said fleet after they spent all their free cash on stock repurchases?
 
qf002
Posts: 3595
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 11:14 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 31, 2018 3:13 pm

downdata wrote:
I presume you are going to fund the couple of billions to acquire said fleet after they spent all their free cash on stock repurchases?


Well I figured they could just find another gullible state-backed international airline and pull the same scam that they’ve spent a decade perfecting.
 
aerokiwi
Posts: 2687
Joined: Sun Jul 30, 2000 1:17 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:32 pm

qf002 wrote:
downdata wrote:
I presume you are going to fund the couple of billions to acquire said fleet after they spent all their free cash on stock repurchases?


Well I figured they could just find another gullible state-backed international airline and pull the same scam that they’ve spent a decade perfecting.


Well that puts a fullstop on any sensible analysis on this topic. A shame because there are some interesting angles above.

Are we absolutely certain that any shareholding over 20% triggers a full blown takeover or is this one of those Anet "truths" that become gospel?

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos