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New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 01, 2018 10:31 am

Welcome to New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018, please add your comments below

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planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:57 am

From last month's thread:

aerokiwi wrote:
I've discovered just how crappy Airpoints really is ...

Actually, I think that there are quite a few strengths to NZ's FFP scheme, relative to other programs, including:

- No capacity controls on award flights as you can use your Airpoints Dollars to buy any seat on any service.
- Earning points based on spend, and not miles flown (if only points were awarded more generously though).
- Airpoints Dollars can be used to pay taxes and fees on flights domestically (unlike with JQ using QF points).

However, NZ's status recognition thresholds are, IMHO, atrocious. To achieve 'Silver', I would need to make:

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

1. Case study 1: AKL - SYD

Economy
- 12 ow trips on QF (with Y earning 25 status points ow, and 300 status points needed)
- At least 15 and at most 38 ow trips on NZ (with 'Works' earning 12-30 status points ow, and 450 status points needed)

*Note - I equated NZ's 'Works - Smart Saver' with QF's 'Economy' - NZ's 'Works - Flexi' is akin to QF's 'Flexible Economy'

Business
- 4 ow trips on QF (with J earning 85 status points ow, and 300 status points needed)
- At least 5 and at most 8 ow trips on NZ (with J earning 60-107 status points ow, and 450 status points needed)

2. Case study 2: AKL - SIN

Economy
- At least 5 and at most 10 ow trips on SQ (with Y earning 2,614-5,227 points ow, and 25,000 points needed)
- At least 5 and at most 16 ow trips on NZ (with Y earning 29-100 status points ow, and 450 status points needed)

Business
- 4 ow trips on SQ (with J earning 6,534-7,841 points ow, and 25,000 points needed)
- At least 2 and at most 3 ow trips on NZ (with J earning 178-230 status points ow, and 450 status points needed)

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

In most categories, NZ's FFP performs poor, but interestingly, it does do better for premium classes, long-haul.

They don't seem to use the FFP to attract repeat Y business so much? Relying on strong branding, instead?

I think it'd be interesting if QF were more aggressive with their FFP push here, particularly through credit cards.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:20 pm

From last month's thread:

tullamarine wrote:
NZ ... at some point, you'd expect them to announce a revamp of their Tasman products.

While I would love for NZ to follow in VA's footsteps and upgrade its offering, the simple fact of the matter is that it won't, because it doesn't have to. Typically, around 60% of NZ customers don't opt for a fare including a meal on Australian flights, and depending on the route and day of the week, up to around 40% don't opt for an included bag. At the same time, NZ's numbers are booming - RPM's for the Tasman/Pacific are up more than 8% in the Financial YTD.

See:
- https://traveltalk.nz/news-opinion/airl ... -offering/.
- http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-a ... 283581.pdf.

I just don't see VA's latest move as being that big of a threat to NZ, so as to make NZ change. Remember, VA's fares will likely increase, in order to cover the costs of these extra services. Therefore, it'll arguably be harder for them to get volumes. So, VA will try to go premium, but it'll still face many of the issues it already does, including almost zero advertising and marketing here, as well as, post-October, a poorer quality AKL lounge (if they even offer lounge access at all).

Interesting times. :spin:

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:47 pm

VA is giving itself 12-18 months to analyze and consider whether Tiger will be introduced to New Zealand.

It's interesting, as VA are going in the opposite direction of Tiger, with free food, internet and other perks.

Perhaps this premium-isation of VA here is a test and if the market responds poorly, then Tiger will come?

See: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business-vid ... _id=196466.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:53 pm

VA still operates to TBU and RAR from AKL - does anyone know if these flights will see a changed product offering too?

IMO, it makes sense for VA to standardize its product at AKL across all routes - the cost of doing so would be minimal.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 01, 2018 1:02 pm

3C will operate a series of WAG - CHT and TEU - CHT charter flights later this year and in early 2019.

Pretty cool to see TEU - CHT flights - I do wonder why they operate from TEU, and not ZQN or DUD?

See: https://www.facebook.com/Mervs-Chatham- ... 529220362/.

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:16 pm

From last month's thread:

tullamarine wrote:
The reasonable question is why NZ launched the 789 with what was, by that stage, a dated product? Herringbone seating had by then had its day with only NZ and VS clinging to it even though it was generally accepted to not have the comfort or privacy offered by the Thomson and Zodiac staggered and reverse herringbone seats. By the time the 787 came along, they had already realised the mistake they'd made with the SpaceSeat in W and corrected this error (very well by the way) but they didn't do J class. It's not as if they had to design from scratch; these seats are largely off-the-shelf but can be personalised for the individual airline ( for example CX, AA and VA all use the same J seat model but each has customised it just enough to reflect their brand).


Firstly SpaceSeat is not J product so let's confuse the debate.

Secondly, to your point regarding the deployment of the 787 with the current J products, this is simple economics. The option was available to NZ as the 77W were going through their refit program at a similar time however it comes down to economic return on any investment. While against best practice globally the product is dated, product satisfaction within NZ's customer base and desired markets is still tracking high and anticipated to be acceptable over the next 5-8 years.

So a decision was made, spend X million to retrofit the 77W's and utilise the existing contracts and hard seat products on the 787's and start to upgrade the product when the 772's are replaced in the early 2020's.

You need to remember, having the best seat product in the world isn't a certainty in a higher airfare return.

In simple terms, you'll still charge the same for your airfares and you'll still see the same load factor and demand. So replacing the product too soon is an unnecessary investment. Not what an airline buff wants to read or someone who enjoys the best in things but exactly what the financial controllers and bankers want to see.

To put this in context to upgrade NZ's hard J product across the entire fleet you're looking and millions, in fact, hundreds of millions. Do it now, you'll be out of date again mid-2020's, do you do it again then? what is your expected and acceptable lifespan of any product? Ideally, you only want to refit an aircraft once in its lifetime.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:29 pm

From last month's thread:

aerokiwi wrote:
NZ6 - yup S2S is bloody terrible. Always hated it. It's why I went with Qantas and EK on the Tasman with a better offering and similar/same fares. Seat 2 Suit don't suit my needs at all.

If you're going to do Seats 2 Suit then go the full hog and give me true choice and prices that reflect that. Not this half-pregnant approach that just turns me off NZ altogether. And to then stick it on leisure longhaul. Ha! Gimme EK to Bali or HA to Hawaii any day.

Since joining QF and VA frequent flyer programmes I've discovered just how crappy Airpoints really is. I suspect it's only survived in its current form because of the dominance in the domestic market and QF's retreat from NZ in recent years, as well as the Flybuys tie in. Big achievement in a near minopoly. And the atrocious Onesmart card - I'll stick with Qantas Cash thanks.

And yes the onboard hard product is dated - they've milked that puppy. Had the option of a via AKL to LAX on an NZ 777 or direct on VA on their 777 for slightly more. Was tempted to give NZ a go to keep the Airpoints current but then I remembered, 10 abreast Y, and that godawful herringbone if I splurge and go J. So I'm VA Y 9 abreast one way upgraded to J on the longer return leg. That "laid back kiwi style" is exactly the same as I find on VA and to a lesser extent QF. Minus the "mates". It really is a crutch of an excuse for not investing in the hard product.

So yeah. NZ rejuvinated post collapse and bubbled along nicely there for a while. Appears to have rested on its laurels under Luxon. Maybe it needs a more challenging internal culture. Dunno. Don't care.


Firstly, you're welcome to choose your preferred carrier and I can't and won't say your wrong for the reasons you prefer them. I love what QF offer, I'm also a Frequent Flyer member with them.

Having said this, to be anti NZ and state they lack choice is confusing, QF offer AKL-SYD twice a day with a 738? while NZ is up to 5 times a day and uses wide-body aircraft. QF you get full service and no alternatives while NZ you can have 6 different options ranging from seat only up to Business Class. While you can't mix and match on every detail, it's bundled in a way which suits most market types and entices the customer to upgrade to The Works.

At the end of the day, everyone is a consumer and has the right to choose what they perceive as value for money.

If Bali on EK suits or HNL on HA is preferable then great. Personally, I've done HNL-AKL on HA and was given a sandwich (wrapped in glad wrap) for lunch. It wasn't even on a tray table.

I don't want and I don't expect everyone to fly or even like NZ, it's just interesting how you can be so anti an airline because the product doesn't suit their individual needs. Is this like being Anti Countdown because they don't stock a particular grocery item?
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 01, 2018 10:07 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
VA is giving itself 12-18 months to analyze and consider whether Tiger will be introduced to New Zealand.

It's interesting, as VA are going in the opposite direction of Tiger, with free food, internet and other perks.

Perhaps this premium-isation of VA here is a test and if the market responds poorly, then Tiger will come?

See: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business-vid ... _id=196466.

Cheers,

C.


That's exactly what I was expecting by way of announcement, I still stand by my comments or agreeance with it being tacky. It's a critical announcement and has been pinned against a dig at NZ and focused only in AKL. I would have liked to see VA go out alone and make a bigger bang and do something across all New Zealand centres they operate from.

However, I'm actually excited to see how VA develops here. They clearly see themselves as a full-service carrier and will remain as that for the foreseeable future.

If they can strengthen NZ and if they keep their long-haul arm will they be the next carrier to open North America from New Zealand?
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:44 am

For all you AvGeeks out there keen to try out NZ's leased BR 77W, it will be flying AKL - CHC on 26 and 29 August!

This is on top of the odd AKL - SYD and AKL - NAN flight, before it goes on AKL - HNL from 4 September onwards.

See: https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -aug-2018/.

Cheers,

C.
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 9:24 am

planemanofnz wrote:
For all you AvGeeks out there keen to try out NZ's leased BR 77W, it will be flying AKL - CHC on 26 and 29 August!

This is on top of the odd AKL - SYD and AKL - NAN flight, before it goes on AKL - HNL from 4 September onwards.

See: https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -aug-2018/.

Cheers,

C.


Understood it will also be doing AKL-YVR We Fr Su for the two weeks 22 Aug to 02 Sep.

PA515
 
deconz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:08 am

NZ6 wrote:
... QF offer AKL-SYD twice a day with a 738? while NZ is up to 5 times a day and uses wide-body aircraft. ...


Tomorrow (Fri 03AUG) QF fly AKL/SYD 5 times ... twice with the A330 and three times with the 738. Five on Saturday, four on Sunday and then five again on Monday.
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:50 am

QF will typically be 5 x a day AKL-SYD and v/v
Plane mad!
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:30 am

After boosting AKL - ZQN and AKL - DUD flights, NZ will boost AKL - NPE flights too - it will put on an extra 12 one-way flights between the centres from the end of October. The Q300 services are going to leave AKL at 5:50 pm, and be catered to NPE's business community.

We often bag NZ on here for exiting places like PPQ, but it has to be said that it's great to see them boosting capacity to regional New Zealand like this. That being said, with the growing pessimism about the domestic economy, I hope that such growth can be sustained.

See: https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/10595984 ... d-auckland.

Cheers,

C.
Last edited by planemanofnz on Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:41 am

NZ321 wrote:
QF will typically be 5 x a day AKL-SYD and v/v

When you add the LA (1x daily) and JQ (1x daily) services, the overall offering is up to 7x daily. NZ's offering is currently up to 5x daily on NZ metal, and up to 2x daily on VA metal, for an overall offering of up to 7x daily (for example, tomorrow, on 3 August). After the VA alliance ends, this will go up to up to 6x daily on NZ metal (but with an overall offering reduced to up to 6x daily).

On a side note, I'm really surprised that LA continues to fly SCL - AKL - SYD, and is yet to de-tag AKL and SYD. Why does LA not fly to SYD non-stop? I could see SCL - SYD working 4x weekly non-stop (on the days the QF non-stop flight doesn't operate), and SCL - AKL working 3x weekly in its own right (potentially with a tag to BNE, instead of SYD, if need be). Is this a possibility?

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:55 am

JQ this week said that its 321NEO's could be used on flights other than to DPS.

“Our network people are having a field day trying to work out where the opportunities are and they’ve got a few ideas as well.”

AKL is one of JQ's hubs, so I wonder if it could play host to a 321NEO service?

Some options:

1. AKL - PPT: with new LCC's like BF entering PPT, JQ may give it a go too.
2. AKL - DPS: if EK moves its DPS stop, JQ may step in, as it's huge at DPS.
3. AKL - PER: QF seems to have hard luck on this, so an LCC may be better.
4. AKL - DRW: IMO, this is unlikely, but seasonal tourism could be stimulated.

All of these, AFAIK, cannot be done with 320's. Does anyone have other ideas?

See: http://australianaviation.com.au/2018/0 ... ew-routes/.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:59 am

This is a neat initiative on sustainability from NZ - instead of using big Auxiliary Power Units in their tails, NZ jets are running off mains power to run on-board lighting, air conditioning and mechanical systems at the gate, when the main engines are off. As a result, NZ saved 2.5 million litres of fuel in the past year.

See: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new ... d=12097653.

Cheers,

C.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:02 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
QF will typically be 5 x a day AKL-SYD and v/v

When you add the LA (1x daily) and JQ (1x daily) services, the overall offering is up to 7x daily. NZ's offering is currently up to 5x daily on NZ metal, and up to 2x daily on VA metal, for an overall offering of up to 7x daily (for example, tomorrow, on 3 August). After the VA alliance ends, this will go up to up to 6x daily on NZ metal (but with an overall offering reduced to up to 6x daily).
.


From sometime in December on NZ AKL-SYD will be going 5x Daily 77E/77W, with an evening A320 service too.

5x 777/day is an pretty impressive amount of seats from an single airline on that route.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:10 pm

zkncj wrote:
From sometime in December on NZ AKL-SYD will be going 5x Daily 77E/77W, with an evening A320 service too. 5x 777/day is an pretty impressive amount of seats from an single airline on that route.

It is indeed, though two points:

1. AFAIK, NZ's frequency offering will fall slightly behind that of QF's (when LA and JQ flights are added).
2. I wonder whether the additional capacity is going to be sustainable, particularly with VA's new flight too.

Cheers,

C.
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
Posts: 759
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:37 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
This is a neat initiative on sustainability from NZ - instead of using big Auxiliary Power Units in their tails, NZ jets are running off mains power to run on-board lighting, air conditioning and mechanical systems at the gate, when the main engines are off. As a result, NZ saved 2.5 million litres of fuel in the past year.

See: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new ... d=12097653.

Cheers,

C.


This is something that confused me at first when I moved to the UK. Pretty much all planes hook up to ground power at the gate in Europe. From your biggest widebody down to your smallest LCC narrowbody.

If anything I think NZ is way behind the curve on this and the article doesn't really point out they're playing catchup to what's already standard operating procedure elsewhere.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:50 pm

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
This is something that confused me at first when I moved to the UK. Pretty much all planes hook up to ground power at the gate in Europe. From your biggest widebody down to your smallest LCC narrowbody. If anything I think NZ is way behind the curve on this and the article doesn't really point out they're playing catchup to what's already standard operating procedure elsewhere.

While it is common across Europe, many airports there of a similar size to AKL only recently introduced it (for example, at NCE, where it was only introduced in 2014). Irregardless, I think it's a positive development for NZ (be it being ahead or behind of the curve).

See: https://aviationbenefits.org/case-studi ... und-power/.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 1:04 pm

One topic that I hope can generate some discussion on here is that of TEU (Te Anau Airport), and its potential. TEU could arguably be the gateway to Fiordland, and Fiordland itself is in a tourism boom:

"People are pushing further down the region, and are also being pushed out of those major centres such as Queenstown, which are full and are pretty much price-gouging when it comes to accommodation."

Some context:

Facilities
- The terminal at TEU is in very good condition, having only been built in 2009. It has very low wear and tear to it.
- I've found conflicting reports on runway length at TEU, but it's at least ~1,600 m (enough for Q300's / ATR-72's).

Traffic
- A jet first landed at TEU in 2011, after TEU widened its runway strip area and installed an approach light system.
- Since then, Air Milford, based in ZQN, launched a ZQN - TEU flight earlier this year, based on growing demand.

Supposedly, NZ considered resuming TEU flights before the Christchurch earthquakes, and then again in 2013, from ZQN. Kiwi Regional also considered serving TEU back in 2015 (before its later sale to 3C).

Some queries:

1. How likely is it that TEU could entice NZ and/or 3C for scheduled flights, and which of the two is more likely?
2. Which flight would make the most sense out of AKL - TEU, CHC - TEU or ZQN - TEU? Perhaps the former?

Image

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 2:01 pm

With the big 4 Australian airports having posted their traffic figures for the year to June 2018, it's interesting to compare their international traffic figures with AKL's (given that AKL often competes with these airports for new international flights, to Asia and the Americas).

1. SYD: 16,372,000 (+5.9%)
2. MEL: 10,866,000 (+ 9.4%)
3. AKL: 10,202,526 (+4.7%)
4. BNE: 5,930,000 (+5.1%)
5. PER: 4,364,573 (-0.9%)

AKL is growing at a slower rate, with MEL widening its lead on AKL, and BNE closing the gap. I wonder if AKL will continue to lag behind the others? We are at a geographic disadvantage for attracting Asian flights, but have a geographic advantage for Americas flights.

There were some other interesting points from AKL's data release:

- Transits were down 1.2% in the year to June 2018 - what's behind this? Is NZ's AKL hub to the Americas strategy losing steam?
- Of the top 10 markets for passenger traffic, India (~+17%) and Korea (~+12%) were the fastest growing - scope for new flights?
- Domestic traffic is booming, up 7.7% - if sustained, we could see domestic passenger figures soon overtaking international ones.

See: https://corporate.aucklandairport.co.nz ... ic-updates.

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 2:22 pm

Well it's not surprising that AKL is feeling the pressure is it? Look at the facilities and the transfer experience once out of customs. A lot of work to do to bring things up to spec. A few unharnessed opportunities IMHO - if only we had the infrastructure to make it a reality. Interesting to see Korea and India growing so aggressively yet little obvious capacity increase..
Plane mad!
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 2:40 pm

NZ321 wrote:
Interesting to see Korea and India growing so aggressively yet little obvious capacity increase..

Actually, there'll be a capacity decrease to Korea soon - KE is only using the 77W this NW season, instead of the usual 748.

The growth out of Korea has been not only remarkable for being in the double digits, but for this being sustained for a while:

+12.2% in year to June 2018
+11.9% in year to June 2017
+22.5% in year to June 2016
+14.1% in year to June 2015

In contrast, India hasn't sustained this sort of double digit growth. I know I harp on re ICN, but I do hope NZ reconsiders it.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 2:42 pm

NZ321 wrote:
Well it's not surprising that AKL is feeling the pressure is it? Look at the facilities and the transfer experience once out of customs. A lot of work to do to bring things up to spec. A few unharnessed opportunities IMHO - if only we had the infrastructure to make it a reality.

So true. In particular, with the level of domestic growth, AKL really needs to get started on the domestic jet pier.

Cheers,

C.
 
downdata
Posts: 450
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 2:54 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
Interesting to see Korea and India growing so aggressively yet little obvious capacity increase..

Actually, there'll be a capacity decrease to Korea soon - KE is only using the 77W this NW season, instead of the usual 748.

The growth out of Korea has been not only remarkable for being in the double digits, but for this being sustained for a while:

+12.2% in year to June 2018
+11.9% in year to June 2017
+22.5% in year to June 2016
+14.1% in year to June 2015

In contrast, India hasn't sustained this sort of double digit growth. I know I harp on re ICN, but I do hope NZ reconsiders it.

Cheers,

C.


Ok but how do you square a sequential passenger growth with little to no capacity growth? I dont think they were flying empty planes back in 2015
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 2:57 pm

downdata wrote:
Ok but how do you square a sequential passenger growth with little to no capacity growth? I dont think they were flying empty planes back in 2015

The traffic is obviously filtered not just through KE, but one-stop options too, with one-stop capacity growth having surged since 2014.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 2:58 pm

The new BITRE figures shed light on SQ's WLG flight, with May being the first month of the new MEL stop:

- SQ's load factor on Trans-Tasman flights in May 2018 averaged 67.7% versus 45.5% in May 2017.
- SQ flew 72% more passengers and 18.9% more freight on Trans-Tasman flights from May 2017-18.

I know this doesn't account for yield, but all up, this is quite promising for the sustaining of SQ's WLG flight.

I wonder if they will do some seasonal upgrades in the coming years during NW, as they do at AKL / CHC.

See:
- https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoi ... y_1805.pdf.
- https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoi ... y_1705.pdf.

Cheers,

C.
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:14 pm

Now we just need to hear the results of Airbus' WLG testing. Who knows. Maybe the performance is good enough that the smaller runway extension or none at all is needed.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:57 pm

The new BITRE figures also show a drop in EK's Trans-Tasman loads, relative to previous months:

- May - 50.6%
- Apr - 84.3%
- Mar - 86.9%
- Feb - 82.0%
- Jan - 91.6%
- Dec - 86.6%

EK's AKL Trans-Tasman flights stopped in March, so April and May should reflect SYD - CHC only.

I know we can't read much into one month's decline, so let's wait and see whether this will continue.

See: https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoi ... tions.aspx.

Cheers,

C.
 
a7ala
Posts: 189
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:32 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
The new BITRE figures also show a drop in EK's Trans-Tasman loads, relative to previous months:

- May - 50.6%
- Apr - 84.3%
- Mar - 86.9%
- Feb - 82.0%
- Jan - 91.6%
- Dec - 86.6%

EK's AKL Trans-Tasman flights stopped in March, so April and May should reflect SYD - CHC only.


But in May last year it was also 51% - so more of a seasonal variation than a CHC-SYD impact?
 
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LamboAston
Posts: 589
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:01 am

planemanofnz wrote:
One topic that I hope can generate some discussion on here is that of TEU (Te Anau Airport), and its potential. TEU could arguably be the gateway to Fiordland, and Fiordland itself is in a tourism boom:

"People are pushing further down the region, and are also being pushed out of those major centres such as Queenstown, which are full and are pretty much price-gouging when it comes to accommodation."

Some context:

Facilities
- The terminal at TEU is in very good condition, having only been built in 2009. It has very low wear and tear to it.
- I've found conflicting reports on runway length at TEU, but it's at least ~1,600 m (enough for Q300's / ATR-72's).

Traffic
- A jet first landed at TEU in 2011, after TEU widened its runway strip area and installed an approach light system.
- Since then, Air Milford, based in ZQN, launched a ZQN - TEU flight earlier this year, based on growing demand.

Supposedly, NZ considered resuming TEU flights before the Christchurch earthquakes, and then again in 2013, from ZQN. Kiwi Regional also considered serving TEU back in 2015 (before its later sale to 3C).

Some queries:

1. How likely is it that TEU could entice NZ and/or 3C for scheduled flights, and which of the two is more likely?
2. Which flight would make the most sense out of AKL - TEU, CHC - TEU or ZQN - TEU? Perhaps the former?

Image

Cheers,

C.

I'd like to think that 3C could make a go of TEU-AKL flights, but it is a very long prop time, well over two hours probably. Prices would also probably need to start lower as it's a new market.
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tealnz
Posts: 261
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:31 am

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
Now we just need to hear the results of Airbus' WLG testing. Who knows. Maybe the performance is good enough that the smaller runway extension or none at all is needed.

Yeah someone must know. Please tell 8-)
A non-stop SQ WLG-SIN A350 service would be transformational.
 
PA515
Posts: 1352
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 03, 2018 6:42 am

LamboAston wrote:
I'd like to think that 3C could make a go of TEU-AKL flights, but it is a very long prop time, well over two hours probably. Prices would also probably need to start lower as it's a new market.

I believe TEU might only be viable on a charter basis by a tour operator for a Milford daytrip. Thought this might happen a few years ago when ZQN had a shortage of hotel rooms and an early morning CHC-TEU-IVC could return as the second IVC-CHC. However the IVC-CHC schedule changed two years ago and now has an early morning CHC-IVC that returns as the second IVC-CHC.

AKL-TEU would be 2hrs 35min and TEU-AKL 2hrs 30min. Based this on AKL-ZQN NZ5903 2hrs 25min and NZ5924 ZQN-AKL 2hrs 20min by ZK-MCP 04 Sep 2013, which diverted to IVC. The RNP capable ATR 72-600s should not need to divert.

PA515
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3931
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 03, 2018 10:59 am

LamboAston wrote:
I'd like to think that 3C could make a go of TEU-AKL flights, but it is a very long prop time, well over two hours probably.

They are very familiar with flights of this length - for comparison:

AKL - CHT: 658 mi
AKL - NLK: 678 mi
AKL - TEU: 695 mi

Image

LamboAston wrote:
Prices would also probably need to start lower as it's a new market.

Could they not actually get a premium for offering a niche route?

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3931
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:18 am

PA515 wrote:
I believe TEU might only be viable on a charter basis by a tour operator for a Milford daytrip.

Air Milford supposedly launched regular ZQN - TEU flights in January 2017 (see article below), but on their website, I can't find further details or a schedule - does anyone have more information on this? I saw a screenshot of a schedule from last year, but can't see anything since then. Perhaps it wasn't successful and was then canned?

See:
- https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/886 ... st-tourism.
- https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-15VmWZ8OCqA/ ... ebsite.jpg.

Separately, to your point about charter flights, Tauck Tours supposedly does these each year for foreign visitors, as part of a New Zealand-wide tour. The flights operate from BHE using a QQ Fokker. QQ supposedly replaced 3C as the air service provider for the tour company. QQ also flies TEU - AKL and TEU - ZQN, and 3C flies TEU - CHT.

See:
- http://www.tauck.co.nz/tours/australia- ... =Itinerary.
- http://www.allianceairlines.com.au/where-we-fly.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3931
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:29 am

Some expansion by OG! They're launching new flights from 28 September, including:

- NPE - PMR - NSN
- NPE - NPL - NSN

See: https://www.facebook.com/Originair/post ... 8213023031.

These come on the back of NZ just announcing a boost to its AKL - NPE flights too.

See: https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/10595984 ... d-auckland.

NPE will also get a new terminal, double the size of the current one, opening in 2019.

See: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new ... d=11959434.

All of this growth is great to see for regional New Zealand. Long may it continue here!

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3931
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:37 am

a7ala wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
The new BITRE figures also show a drop in EK's Trans-Tasman loads, relative to previous months:

- May - 50.6%
- Apr - 84.3%
- Mar - 86.9%
- Feb - 82.0%
- Jan - 91.6%
- Dec - 86.6%

EK's AKL Trans-Tasman flights stopped in March, so April and May should reflect SYD - CHC only.


But in May last year it was also 51% - so more of a seasonal variation than a CHC-SYD impact?

Valid point. The seasonality does make you wonder why EK doesn't vary its capacity over the NW / NS seasons, like most other foreign carriers do. It'll be interesting to see if EK replaces its current 388 CHC flights with a lower frequency non-stop flight, or a lower capacity Australian (or Asian) tag. QF could then deploy 332/333's to CHC, to make up the difference under the ACCC requirements.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3931
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:12 pm

There are some interesting stats from an anna.aero OAG analysis of NZ's AKL operations:

- Though NSN is the country's busiest regional airport, NPE is NZ's biggest regional destination ex-AKL.
- NZ's market share for all departing seats from AKL has increased from 57% last year to 58% this year.

See: https://www.anna.aero/2018/08/02/air-ne ... -4-3-2018/.

If NPE keeps growing (NZ has announced new flights), it may overtake LAX, capacity-wise.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3931
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:18 pm

JB yesterday said at a CAPA event that NZ actually "held back" VA to a degree, with its product offering.

If VA really wanted to offer free food, could it not have forced all NZ sales of its flights to be 'Works' only?

Again, I think JB and VA need to stop with the jabs against NZ, and start a more uplifting campaign here.

See: http://www.travelweekly.com.au/article/ ... he-tasman/.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3931
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:24 pm

TT's CEO said at the same CAPA event mentioned above, that "any new international venture was more likely to involve New Zealand than Indonesia," but that "there are no plans at the moment, because there's plenty of room to optimise and improve our domestic operation."

She indicated that TT would reconsider its international plans in 12 months. As said before, this makes sense - give the new upmarket VA offering, as well as new seasonal VA capacity like AKL - NTL a chance over the coming year, and if it all fails, then deploy TT as the plan B.

See: https://issuu.com/queenslandairports.co ... august2018.

Cheers,

C.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1201
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Sat Aug 04, 2018 1:35 am

Just as an aside, didn't Air Chats run charters to the Chathams from TEU also last year or the year before?
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
NZ6
Posts: 521
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:16 am

planemanofnz wrote:
LamboAston wrote:
I'd like to think that 3C could make a go of TEU-AKL flights, but it is a very long prop time, well over two hours probably.

They are very familiar with flights of this length - for comparison:

AKL - CHT: 658 mi
AKL - NLK: 678 mi
AKL - TEU: 695 mi

Image

LamboAston wrote:
Prices would also probably need to start lower as it's a new market.

Could they not actually get a premium for offering a niche route?

Cheers,

C.


I don't think sector length is the issue here. If the aircraft is capable which it is then great it again comes down to knowing your market and who is going to use it.

It's a tourist market and largely international tourists at the premium end of the market.

Your European backpacker market is not as time-sensitive and instead focus on cost so therefore will travel via ground. You're Japanese and Chinese market typically travel via organised tour so any operator needs to connect in with offshore tour operators.

To me, there is a market for someone like 3C here, I would personally run it ex CHC and tap into the market of those who visit NZ but don't have the time to venture South enough to ZQN/WKA but want to explore one of NZ's top spots.

CHC-TEU - TEU-ZQN - ZQN-CHC

Imagine something like this as a $599 day trip, see the Milford sound, cruise Lake Wakatipu followed by a cultural show and dinner at Skyline before a 8pm departure from ZQN (In summer)
 
zkncj
Posts: 2979
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:22 am

planemanofnz wrote:
JQ this week said that its 321NEO's could be used on flights other than to DPS.

“Our network people are having a field day trying to work out where the opportunities are and they’ve got a few ideas as well.”

AKL is one of JQ's hubs, so I wonder if it could play host to a 321NEO service?

Some options:

1. AKL - PPT: with new LCC's like BF entering PPT, JQ may give it a go too.
2. AKL - DPS: if EK moves its DPS stop, JQ may step in, as it's huge at DPS.
3. AKL - PER: QF seems to have hard luck on this, so an LCC may be better.
4. AKL - DRW: IMO, this is unlikely, but seasonal tourism could be stimulated.

All of these, AFAIK, cannot be done with 320's. Does anyone have other ideas?

See: http://australianaviation.com.au/2018/0 ... ew-routes/.

Cheers,

C.


Does JQ (Australian based airlines) have rights to fly AKL-PPT and AKL-DPS? with New Zealand they will, but it still also requires to the third country involved. For example VA had to stop flying AKL-APW as Australia doesn't have the air rights too make it happen.

Not sure about AKL-PPT, maybe AKL-HNL would be better off to an more price sensitive market. Tahiti is extremely expensive on the ground, and add to that your paying for everything in Euros.
 
planemanofnz
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Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:40 am

NZ6 wrote:
To me, there is a market for someone like 3C here, I would personally run it ex CHC and tap into the market of those who visit NZ but don't have the time to venture South enough to ZQN/WKA but want to explore one of NZ's top spots.

I agree with CHC - TEU being the most logical option.

Separately, I also wonder if 3C would consider WKA?

Cheers,

C.
 
User avatar
eta unknown
Posts: 2111
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2001 5:03 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Sat Aug 04, 2018 5:29 am

C.[/quote]

Does JQ (Australian based airlines) have rights to fly AKL-PPT and AKL-DPS? with New Zealand they will, but it still also requires to the third country involved. For example VA had to stop flying AKL-APW as Australia doesn't have the air rights too make it happen. [/quote]
QF used to fly SYD-AKL-PPT-LAX, then later SYD-AKL-PPT with a 767 terminator, so yes the rights exist.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1201
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Sat Aug 04, 2018 5:57 am

eta unknown wrote:
QF used to fly SYD-AKL-PPT-LAX, then later SYD-AKL-PPT with a 767 terminator, so yes the rights exist.

And many, many years ago, QF used to fly SYD-AKL/NAN-PPT-ACA-MEX-NAS-BDA-LHR with 707s, and carried pax to and from PPT then, though IIRC the weekly flight via AKL was a MEX terminator and AKL was a tech stop. The other weekly flight went via NAN and carried on all the way to LHR. This was their so-called "Fiesta Route".
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6255
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:20 am

zkncj wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
JQ this week said that its 321NEO's could be used on flights other than to DPS.

“Our network people are having a field day trying to work out where the opportunities are and they’ve got a few ideas as well.”

AKL is one of JQ's hubs, so I wonder if it could play host to a 321NEO service?

Some options:

1. AKL - PPT: with new LCC's like BF entering PPT, JQ may give it a go too.
2. AKL - DPS: if EK moves its DPS stop, JQ may step in, as it's huge at DPS.
3. AKL - PER: QF seems to have hard luck on this, so an LCC may be better.
4. AKL - DRW: IMO, this is unlikely, but seasonal tourism could be stimulated.

All of these, AFAIK, cannot be done with 320's. Does anyone have other ideas?

See: http://australianaviation.com.au/2018/0 ... ew-routes/.

Cheers,

C.


Does JQ (Australian based airlines) have rights to fly AKL-PPT and AKL-DPS? with New Zealand they will, but it still also requires to the third country involved. For example VA had to stop flying AKL-APW as Australia doesn't have the air rights too make it happen.

Not sure about AKL-PPT, maybe AKL-HNL would be better off to an more price sensitive market. Tahiti is extremely expensive on the ground, and add to that your paying for everything in Euros.


It was Samoa trying to protect their new airline wasn’t it that kicked up a stink and changed the laws on VA wasn’t it?

JQ flew AKL-SIN for a while, not sure they would be interested in AKL-DPS, seasonal at best but a stretch imo.

QF haven’t loaded AKL-PER yet for this year unless there is a pending announcement about a year round service?

planemanofnz wrote:
zkncj wrote:
From sometime in December on NZ AKL-SYD will be going 5x Daily 77E/77W, with an evening A320 service too. 5x 777/day is an pretty impressive amount of seats from an single airline on that route.

It is indeed, though two points:

1. AFAIK, NZ's frequency offering will fall slightly behind that of QF's (when LA and JQ flights are added).
2. I wonder whether the additional capacity is going to be sustainable, particularly with VA's new flight too.

Cheers,

C.


LA’s flight has always been there but most PAX are said to be SCL-SYD although then like you say why don’t they add non stop SCL-SYD? And a few weekly AKL terminator?
So I wouldn’t count LA really but you can add JQ in there and the previous EK/QF Tasman flights. NZ/VA combined count for now, however remember NZ haven’t yet announced where the A321NEO will go so some of those 777’s on AKL-SYD could be placeholders although with the first few I expect MEL/BNE/NAN/TBU etc to get A321’s first.
 
PA515
Posts: 1352
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2018

Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:38 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ haven’t yet announced where the A321NEO will go so some of those 777’s on AKL-SYD could be placeholders although with the first few I expect MEL/BNE/NAN/TBU etc to get A321’s first.


So far Air NZ has mentioned SYD, MEL, NAN and RAR for the A321NEO, but no schedule details.

PA515

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