lightsaber & unraveled - you quotes above - "they are done", "Jet will be history" - Why don't you wait and see the restructuring plan. Also per edealinfo - "Martin, of Marin Consulting believes there will be good interest in Jet" so let's see. Maybe they are worthy of being saved or maybe not. No one on this board has enough info.
As far as the forensic audit - why in god's name would they EVER release that??? SBI and the banks want to SAVE Jet not ruin their reputation or release confidential info.
A forensic audit, in quarterly report form would instill confidence that, combined with a good plan, that Jet can be saved. It had been promised before to release a summary. My experience is that no report is a sign of further problems that haven't been yet discussed.
If releasing a summary would ruin Jet, they are in really bad shape.
As to why not wait:
I have been patiently waiting since October. I didn't turn really negative until recently. I believe Jet has gone too long. I do not believe Jet is in control of it's fate anymore within a plausible bail out package. Tata's board rejected prior bailouts. I believe any buy out would have
We have gone through many bailout discussions. It is my belief that 1,500 crore cannot even clear unpaid monies owed to workers. Recall in January, pilots and engineers were paid 12% of what was owed for December. Jet now owes January, February, and in 6 days March payments.
Leasing companies will place aircraft. Pilots will leave. Jet is not the company they were in September.
The competition has recovered nicely thanks to current fares in India. I was worried about Indigo cancelling flights, but now I just wonder how good their profit will be.
SpiceJet would have been hurt from the MAX grounding, but I believe fares are high enough.
GoAir will thrive.
Air India is fine thanks to government money. I even estimate that the January through March quarter will make money.
I see no way to reform Jet at this point. For October, November, December, and January I could see a recovery path.
How would you undue the fact leasors will find new airlines to operate the 737NGs in this environment?
How many pilots have left? How many remain?
With Indian rules, I keep seeing that the buyer would be responsible for so much debt that I cannot calculate a positive ROI, much less a business case.
The banks have made promises I do not believe they understand. The restructuring plan was needed 2 to 5 months ago before so many customers were abandoned.
When there are no numbers, the hidden values are scary.
How much does Jet owe MROs? How many aircraft will be out due to differed work? How much is that?
How much is the unpaid fuel bill?
How much is owed to employees.
I estimate the first 6,000 crore (about a billion USD) is already gone. Please provide better numbers. It is scary I cannot estimate within a few hundred million.
Another 4,000 crore is the absolute minimum I see needed to restructure Jet into a much smaller airline. But what changes? India is an obvious market for ULCCs. I can see Jet transforming into Y as ULCC with a small domestic first, but how to get there.
Another 3,000 to more likely 4,000 crore of debt forgiveness is required.
Feel free to read my early posts. Everything's is now a stay of execution to get past the election. Far too much money is needed to save a now small airline that must gut it's costs.
Winter is coming.