This bird has seen better days

PC: Ameya

edealinfo wrote:

TATA's are back in the fray and Singapore Airlines is assisting with the bid!

https://www.thehindu.com/business/Indus ... 750312.ece

This is just speculation for the time being and to be taken with a grain of salt.

Remember the last two Indian carriers who bought a competitor collapsed ie IT and 9W now.

edealinfo wrote:

TATA's are back in the fray and Singapore Airlines is assisting with the bid!

https://www.thehindu.com/business/Indus ... 750312.ece

What is telling:
“The last six months has been damaging for Jet Airways. The delay has eaten away the company. Six months back, the valuation could have been better. Now, it is up to the banks on how much haircut they can accept,” said Ansuman Deb, aviation analyst, ICICI Securities.

I estimate Jet was worth six times more six months ago. Waiting so long was stupid. Unfortunately, the banks and employees will bear the cost.

Lightsaber

unrave wrote:

This bird has seen better days

PC: Ameya

Isn't that a MAX? Looks so old

Emergency funding put on hold:
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 1.html/amp

This means the 1,500 crore infusion is not happening. Some wise bankers resisted politics and did their fidiciary duty to determine if a loan should proceed.

This never should have gone this long. Goyal should be prosecuted. Now remember, minority stockholders only put at risk their investment. It is the majority stockholder who controls the company.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

Emergency funding put on hold:
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 1.html/amp

This means the 1,500 crore infusion is not happening. Some wise bankers resisted politics and did their fidiciary duty to determine if a loan should proceed.

Somebody please tell me why we shouldn't call Game Over now.

lightsaber wrote:

Emergency funding put on hold:
Goyal should be prosecuted. Now remember, minority stockholders only put at risk their investment. It is the majority stockholder who controls the company.

Lightsaber

I disagree. He did nothing "legally wrong" although he didn't manage the business situation well. He just used the rights currently available to majority stockholders to run the company as he pleased. If there is something wrong, then the "system"/laws need to be changed.

Spiderguy252 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Emergency funding put on hold:
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 1.html/amp

This means the 1,500 crore infusion is not happening. Some wise bankers resisted politics and did their fidiciary duty to determine if a loan should proceed.

Somebody please tell me why we shouldn't call Game Over now.

Because the elections are not over. Let's be realistic, Modi wouldn't want 16,000 employees to be on the street. I am glad the banks understand their fiduciary responsibility but in the grand scheme of things they should release funds for fuel, airport charges and other essentials so that the airline can operate till the elections are over after which Modi can take the bold decision to pull the plug. The danger is if Congress wins, they won't have the courage to pull the plug and Jet Airways will join the vast sinkhole of public funds along with Air India. I am not trying to take partisan stands on politics .....just reflecting political realities.

behramjee wrote:

edealinfo wrote:

TATA's are back in the fray and Singapore Airlines is assisting with the bid!

https://www.thehindu.com/business/Indus ... 750312.ece

This is just speculation for the time being and to be taken with a grain of salt.

Remember the last two Indian carriers who bought a competitor collapsed ie IT and 9W now.

The Hindu is a respected newspaper so i wouldn't say its all speculation. Maybe things have been hyped -- for instance, tata's and Singapore are probably doing due diligence but have zero intention to bid and maybe the reporter assumed that research by the airlines implied a possible bid.

Are the Banks' Expressions of Interest document public?

unrave wrote:

This bird has seen better days

PC: Ameya

Well since that's a MAX, better caption can be
" The bird ought to have seen better days "

Oil companies stop fuel supply two days in a row and then re-start supply (they shouldn't bother, until the elections are over, the calls to restart will keep coming in)

https://indianexpress.com/article/busin ... e-5661513/

Bad reviews on Jet service (largely due to the cancellations) are starting to hit web pages with a vengence (since this is on the SKYTRAX site, i can see a downgrade coming fairly soon but will it come after the airline is already grounded?):
https://www.airlinequality.com/airline- ... t-airways/

edealinfo wrote:

Bad reviews on Jet service (largely due to the cancellations) are starting to hit web pages with a vengence (since this is on the SKYTRAX site, i can see a downgrade coming fairly soon but will it come after the airline is already grounded?):
https://www.airlinequality.com/airline- ... t-airways/

I wouldn't count on it, when they retained their 5-star rating for Kingfisher when they were in a similar state.

Nobody cares about SkyTrax anyway. 9W cancellations are bad news because they are cancellations, not because they are reported on some .com.

CaliguyNYC wrote:

vadodara wrote:

edealinfo wrote:

Moneycontrol.com is reporting that in a dramatic turn of events, Etihad met with SBI to pursue its interest in Jet and that Kramer ball, the former Jet CE O was at this meeting. The paper quoting others Sri’s that Jet was needed to feed Etihad’s hub and with Natesh Goyal our of the picture , and Modi getting the Zayed award, things are looking better. So it is a mutually beneficial realayionsjop with the Zayed award carrying the day

Notwithstanding the Zayed award, it is true that EY needs the India feed to be viable. So does the expansion of Abu Dhabi airport.

Considering that 9W has only 777's remaining, EY has a tall order indeed to ramp the bus to Abu Dhabi. From Indian perspective, it is even better. It would mean that the BOM slots are of no consequence and EY will replenish 9W's narrow body fleet either by its on aircraft transfer or purchase of new aircraft.

I think you are making a big leap on the BOM slots. EY needs a strong Jet to feed higher value pax through AUH. EY knows full well flying people from US to India for $800 is not a business

How many 777's would one need to fly all the Class F & J to Abu Dhabi?

lightsaber wrote:

This never should have gone this long. Goyal should be prosecuted.
Lightsaber

What are they going to charge him with? Being an egotistical megalomaniac? Unless banks find grounds to brand him a "willful defaulter" like Mallya, which I don't see happening here.

edealinfo wrote:

Because the elections are not over. Let's be realistic, Modi wouldn't want 16,000 employees to be on the street. I am glad the banks understand their fiduciary responsibility but in the grand scheme of things they should release funds for fuel, airport charges and other essentials so that the airline can operate till the elections are over after which Modi can take the bold decision to pull the plug. The danger is if Congress wins, they won't have the courage to pull the plug and Jet Airways will join the vast sinkhole of public funds along with Air India. I am not trying to take partisan stands on politics .....just reflecting political realities.

Modi will not lose this election because Jet went under. He is way past that in terms of the general election. There are bigger political fish to fry. Which begs the question: WTH is going on!? I have a sneaking suspicion that somehow EY is going to walk away with a really sweet deal on 9W. The timing of the Zayed Award, the news about the BAPS shilanyas ceremony, I wonder if there's more to it than meets they eye.....

A deal with the devil except that the devil was the bank (s) and not Naresh Goyal

"When the last Board meeting of Jet Airways was held on 25 March, 2019, the airline effectively made a barter, where in exchange for the Chairman stepping down, it was to receive an emergency funding of Rs 1,500 crore from the banks, who would effectively become a 50.5 percent plus owner of the airline when the restructuring goes through. The money never came."

https://www.firstpost.com/business/jet- ... 85011.html

VTORD wrote:

I wonder if there's more to it than meets they eye.....

Very good reading between the lines

VTORD wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Modi will not lose this election because Jet went under.

And, does his party and his organizational people know that? No one wants to take any risks at this time. Because, if they did, and he loses, that's where the blame finger will point as the trigger for the loss, never mind the real reason for any potential loss.

VTORD wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

This never should have gone this long. Goyal should be prosecuted.
Lightsaber

What are they going to charge him with? Being an egotistical megalomaniac? Unless banks find grounds to brand him a "willful defaulter" like Mallya, which I don't see happening here.

edealinfo wrote:

Because the elections are not over. Let's be realistic, Modi wouldn't want 16,000 employees to be on the street. I am glad the banks understand their fiduciary responsibility but in the grand scheme of things they should release funds for fuel, airport charges and other essentials so that the airline can operate till the elections are over after which Modi can take the bold decision to pull the plug. The danger is if Congress wins, they won't have the courage to pull the plug and Jet Airways will join the vast sinkhole of public funds along with Air India. I am not trying to take partisan stands on politics .....just reflecting political realities.

Modi will not lose this election because Jet went under. He is way past that in terms of the general election. There are bigger political fish to fry. Which begs the question: WTH is going on!? I have a sneaking suspicion that somehow EY is going to walk away with a really sweet deal on 9W. The timing of the Zayed Award, the news about the BAPS shilanyas ceremony, I wonder if there's more to it than meets they eye.....

Securities fraud. The Indian stock market will be impacted by this bankruptcy.

For the cost, why would EY be interested. 9W was an interesting strategic partner six months ago. Not so much today.

Lightsaber

edealinfo wrote:

A deal with the devil except that the devil was the bank (s) and not Naresh Goyal

"When the last Board meeting of Jet Airways was held on 25 March, 2019, the airline effectively made a barter, where in exchange for the Chairman stepping down, it was to receive an emergency funding of Rs 1,500 crore from the banks, who would effectively become a 50.5 percent plus owner of the airline when the restructuring goes through. The money never came."

https://www.firstpost.com/business/jet- ... 85011.html

I thought this was because of the court case that although Jet was nothing to do with the decision did apply to them, pushing us back to square one with Goyal still with ownership and the banks having to wait longer to seize control. Under that circumstance it seems logical they had not ponied up yet. Loans are given with the expectation of getting the money back, banks are not about handing out money without no expectation. If the government believes it to be important to save Jet it should be honest and do it openly and let the chips fall where they may. You can always tell if someone really believes in something, they will let it happen when its detrimental to themselves, otherwise its only about imposing there will.

Exeiowa wrote:

edealinfo wrote:

A deal with the devil except that the devil was the bank (s) and not Naresh Goyal
I thought this was because of the court case that although Jet was nothing to do with the decision did apply to them, pushing us back to square one with Goyal still with ownership and the banks having to wait longer to seize control. Under that circumstance it seems logical they had not ponied up yet. Loans are given with the expectation of getting the money back, banks are not about handing out money without no expectation. If the government believes it to be important to save Jet it should be honest and do it openly and let the chips fall where they may. You can always tell if someone really believes in something, they will let it happen when its detrimental to themselves, otherwise its only about imposing there will.

The court case came much later. The deal was stuck on March 24 with the loan to be released in a couple of days. But then, banks realized that Goyal had the better part of the bargain so they dilly dallied and time worked on their side in the sense that subsequently, almost 10 days later, the court decision conveniently came along giving them an official "out". The very fact that Goyal resigned from the Board the deal was stuck tells you that at least he stuck to the terms of the deal. The problem with banks is that the person who approved the deal isn't the one who gets all the approvals required for the deal. In Indian bureaucracy, there are a million voices and the voice that suits them best, carries the day in the ever changing continuum of time.

lightsaber wrote:

VTORD wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Securities fraud. The Indian stock market will be impacted by this bankruptcy.

Lightsaber

That's a major stretch. If that's the case, Indian prisons would be full.

UAE upset as India drags feet on air services deal

This adds to the discussion mix.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 757868.ece

UPDATE AND HOT OFF THE PRESS:

1. Expression of Interest (EOI) Which was Supposed to be Released Today is Delayed (Pending New Rules to be Made by RBI)
[You have to give India the #1 award for the most bureaucratic, rigmarole, dog chasing its tail, merry-go-around in the world]

2. Food vendors threaten to cut supplies

3. Jet Executive states "Without funding, the airline will have to shut operations by April 12”

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 822_1.html

I am surprised the lessors have constantly held on to hopes that something would materialize. It is always like there is light just around the corner and they should wait just a few day more before pulling the rug.......it has always been a few more days, a few more days, a few more days, a few more days in a constant cycle for now almost a month. How much longer will they take the thread?

With almost all the planes grounded and fuel being switched on and off I can't imagine they are getting any forward bookings - just not worth the risk.

When the bookings dry up you are pretty much done.

edealinfo wrote:

UAE upset as India drags feet on air services deal

This adds to the discussion mix.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 757868.ece

I think the UAE has moved on from Jet.
It looks like the industry has too.

It will be an interesting mess to sort out. But so was Kingfisher. India pledged to abide by the Cape Town convention. That will now be tested.

For myself, Jet isn't flying enough people to be taken as a serious player anymore. Indian law is showing how complicated a rescue package that doesn't make everyone whole can be.

It isn't possible to make everyone whole even if the banks are scalped and I assume leasing companies get nothing. This went on far too long.

I feel for employees and vendor employees.

Lightsaber

India clearly learnt bureaucracy from the British and then multiplied by the number of people available to make something truly awesome.

It almost feels like bureaucracy created this mess, and bureaucracy is what is keeping the thing alive this long.

Once no one trusts to get paid, and services are withdrawn it will be over pretty quickly. Then they can final auction off the assets which will probably be only the name at that point, which will be a bit tarnished.

Should have done more back in October instead of hiring people to harangue us here which I still think is the stupidest idea. What does it matter what any of us think.

Exeiowa wrote:

It almost feels like bureaucracy created this mess, and bureaucracy is what is keeping the thing alive this long.

NEWS UPDATE:

1. Banks tell Supreme Court to take a hike and will do it their way since the banks' approach makes more sense.
2. Banks have "already decided" to provide interim funding support of Rs 1,500 crore. (My reading of this is -- "we have an election coming up so we already decided on what we believe is a reasonable approach for the banks which will also ensure that there is no ruckus during the elections")
3. Despite the Court's ruling, if there is no solution soon, banks will use the 180-day rule, and refer the case to NCLT on June 30, 2018 after which there is a further 180 cool off period and another 90 days grace period, which means on this schedule Jet's liquidation won't occur for at least a year (June 30, 2018 + 180 days + 90 days).
4. Contradicting another news report, this report says that EOIs were invited on Saturday, April 6.
5. The first tranche of the 1,500 crore will be released in a day or two. (Perhaps they are waiting to see if there is an official bid for the EOI, or were they going to lend the money anyway? My reading of the report indicates the latter but I could be wrong. Could anyone else interpret?

ALL I CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS "O'BROTHER"! The only thing certain at this point is that the circus continues and this thread will likely be the longest in aviation.net history of any potential bankruptcy.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 762020.cms

edealinfo wrote:

NEWS UPDATE:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 762020.cms

This is a feed from IANS which is not a very reliable source. I am certain that the EoI has not been issued.

FB330 wrote:

Jet Airways was always my airline of choice when flying domestically in India.

One of the things that upsets me is that I can still go onto their website and book domestic flights as if nothing is wrong. Flights are still bookable (for departure in April) that haven't actually flown for days or weeks. As a reader of the market and this site, I would know not to book it but outside of India (and our internet group), who else would?

I worry that many people are still booking inadvertently without knowing the facts. I accept that if Jet have big banners over the website announcing their troubles, they won't get any bookings, but at least take things off sale that won't happen. In fact, is what they're doing even legal?

Even the fleet page is not updated. Sad

edealinfo wrote:

Exeiowa wrote:

It almost feels like bureaucracy created this mess, and bureaucracy is what is keeping the thing alive this long.

NEWS UPDATE:

1. Banks tell Supreme Court to take a hike and will do it their way since the banks' approach makes more sense.
2. Banks have "already decided" to provide interim funding support of Rs 1,500 crore. (My reading of this is -- "we have an election coming up so we already decided on what we believe is a reasonable approach for the banks which will also ensure that there is no ruckus during the elections")
3. Despite the Court's ruling, if there is no solution soon, banks will use the 180-day rule, and refer the case to NCLT on June 30, 2018 after which there is a further 180 cool off period and another 90 days grace period, which means on this schedule Jet's liquidation won't occur for at least a year (June 30, 2018 + 180 days + 90 days).
4. Contradicting another news report, this report says that EOIs were invited on Saturday, April 6.
5. The first tranche of the 1,500 crore will be released in a day or two. (Perhaps they are waiting to see if there is an official bid for the EOI, or were they going to lend the money anyway? My reading of the report indicates the latter but I could be wrong. Could anyone else interpret?

ALL I CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS "O'BROTHER"! The only thing certain at this point is that the circus continues and this thread will likely be the longest in aviation.net history of any potential bankruptcy.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 762020.cms

This can go on for another 18 months without any resolution. Load your own bags, bring your own food and volunteer FAs.
Meanwhile, NG(if still itching to burn himself in civil aviation) can start another company called WindTails with 700Cr using a parked AOC like AirCosta which is pan India as AirJet.

dtw2hyd wrote:

Meanwhile, NG(if still itching to burn himself in civil aviation) can start another company called WindTails with 700Cr using a parked AOC like AirCosta which is pan India as AirJet.

Narrator: He can't.

I think the banks are smart to plan to only release the 1,600 crore in tranches rather than releasing all the funds upfront. Why? Otherwise, the employees, using a strike threat would demand all their back pay to be paid first from the 1,600, before anything is left over for lease rentals or anything else......... which means that the airline couldn't use the loan to generate revenue. Receiving the loan in tranches gives the airline some control and leverage, and allows them to allocate some money to back pay, some to operations, etc.

[*]

unrave wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

Meanwhile, NG(if still itching to burn himself in civil aviation) can start another company called WindTails with 700Cr using a parked AOC like AirCosta which is pan India as AirJet.

Narrator: He can't.

Why not? He has not signed any non-compete clause, or has he?

Exeiowa wrote:

India clearly learnt bureaucracy from the British and then multiplied by the number of people available to make something truly awesome.

Er yeh it's the British to blame then. Nice one, thanks for your contribution.

edealinfo wrote:

Why not? He has not signed any non-compete clause, or has he?

AoC is not something you buy at the supermarket

EOI to be released on April 8 with bidding to end on April 10. Coincidentally without the 1,500 bank loan, the airline would run out of money on April 10. However other reports indicate that the first tranche of loan will be released "in a day or two" from today.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 763960.cms

edealinfo wrote:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 763960.cms

"likely to be released"
"a source said"
We have seen so many speculative articles like this over the months

edealinfo wrote:

[*]...
Why not? He has not signed any non-compete clause, or has he?

He absolutely can directly or indirectly. There are tons on AOCs which can be dusted off quickly. Right plams at DGCA need to be greased.

Keep in mind aviation is not a profitable business in India, but money laundering is. Only airlines which can make more money washing others money at a lucrative rate will be profitable.

Read quickly before this fact gets deleted.

unrave wrote:

edealinfo wrote:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 763960.cms

"likely to be released"
"a source said"
We have seen so many speculative articles like this over the months

Yup. there has been no dearth of various rumours, speculations, resolution plans outlining various ways lenders, promoters, NIIF, Tata, Delta and bunch of others will put into Jet. The plans change everyday. Only a naive juvenile viewer will look at each article everyday and think its a breaking news and a silver bullet ending Jet's woes If we go by such articles, Jet's problems would have ended six months back

Jet will stumble along for 6-8 more weeks till elections are over. The real drama will start after that.

As for the 90/180 day rule, it no longer applies. BUT the banks are at total freedom to determine the next steps and when they want to take the company to NCLT.

dtw2hyd wrote:

Only airlines which can make more money washing others money at a lucrative rate will be profitable.

Only airlines that make more money flying than it costs them to fly will be profitable. No wonder Jet is on its deathbed.

dtw2hyd wrote:

Keep in mind aviation is not a profitable business in India, but money laundering is. Only airlines which can make more money washing others money at a lucrative rate will be profitable.

Read quickly before this fact gets deleted.

Oh c’mon. I disagree

It’s not only in India but around the globe.

In 180 days struggle to see if there will be a business left to save

What happens to the 777s post eventual grounding? Do they get the get the literal axe or do they get sold off to someone?

My guess - the banks really really don't want to throw good money after bad, but need to play ball with politics. So lots of talk, nice stories in the papers, but no hard cash. They will look for an excuse for no cash - i.e. EOI shows no interest from bidders, so so sorry, no interim cash

JOYA380B747 wrote:

What happens to the 777s post eventual grounding? Do they get the get the literal axe or do they get sold off to someone?

Sold off to highest bidder. That may be for spare parts...

Jet delays bank payment on its owned B777 aircraft

Payment was due end March.
Is within the "cure period".
After the cure period ends, Citibank could claim default in which case the US Exim Bank is on the hook, which in turn could apply to de-register the aircraft.

Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/68770177.cms?

Jet Privilege clocks 35 billion miles, may help save airline

Interesting fact from the article. Jet Privileged is now NOT exclusively tied to Jet airways for redemptions.
" JPPL, around 10 days ago, tied-up with SpiceJet, Air India, GoAir and Vistara to enable existing Jet Privilege members to use their air miles on these airlines for domestic travel. This, the airline said, will ensure customers are not stuck with unused JP Miles while flying within India, especially against the backdrop of Jet Airways grounding 75% of its aircraft in the past five months. Previously, JP members could redeem their JPMiles to fly only Jet Airways within India. IndiGo, India’s top domestic carrier, is not part of this pact."

"Customer base swell from 7.3 million to 9 million in the past year. Reward-point sales have risen 20% to 35 billion JPMiles during the period, improving opportunities for the carrier’s shareholders to monetize their value."

https://www.livemint.com/companies/news ... 39496.html

Intresting the 777s are double pledged or to be pledged (wasn't quite sure what the article was saying) would mean if things go down ( lets be optomistic today for fun) they get to have a legal tug of war over the frames with other lien holders. That suggests to me that they would move quickly to repossess, asking for patience would be accepting getting in the back of the line. This might be the final act, or the spur to actually get it together. However the zombie just keeps moving but I think we just got a few days left.