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lightsaber
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:05 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

Different POV. SpiceJet is being force-fed for potential winter hibernation. If Modi is not next PM, SpiceJet is toast. SG will face the same fate as 9W.

What SG trying to do is make itself relevant.

SpiceJet seems to be profitable now:
https://m.moneycontrol.com/stock/SJ01/f ... /quarterly

Last quarter was a tough quarter yet they made money. If you mean by relevant is to increase economy of scale, I agree. Advertising is a fixed cost for a fleet of 20 or 200. So growing at an opportunity is key.

Jet's failure made this quarter and next quarter easy moneymakers. Then a set of traditionally profitable quarters. So I think SpiceJet is on the right track.

India needs more low cost transit. This is an opportunity to expand. There are suddenly 1,600 pilots, many 737 pilots, in need of work. Indigo botched their pilot quantity and will need six months to 9 months to recover. Who else will expand quickly? I hope GoAir (I'm a Pratt fan), AirAsia, and Vistara too.

I'm in R&D, so I'm trained to think long term. The MAX and NEO open up so much international expansion opportunities for SpiceJet and Indigo. Those two have the cost structure to expand. Indigo has the cash, but not the pilots. (Oops).

India has gone from over served to under served. I believe the market is about 8% under-served today. I also believe the market is growing 15% to 20%. So there is opportunity for profits. Airlines with low costs will sail through the next over-supplied timeframe. I predict that over-supplied condition is 15 to 24 months out (dependent on growth rates of India's economy as well as airlines).

So yes, POV. Now is the time to make hay.

Lightsaber

Late edit:. Indigo was going to have 50% of their growth international in 2019. I wonder how Jet's failure impacts domestic vs. international growth. Obviously certain routes that were at their seat caps are key.

Does anyone have a list of the seats/week Jet abandoned? I'm only interested in capped markets.

It will be very interesting as to what EY does with the LHR slots that were Jet's.


Lightsaber - I don't get it. You say India had overcapacity before. Now that Jet is in trouble, instead of allowing the market to stabilize to the right size, you are advocating a mad dash to grab slots on the first come first serve basis (despite the govt saying it was temporary). How does this build a good process for aviation? You also threw in DXB slots. It doesn't need to be a mad dash and the smaller airlines should absolutely be given slots. Also the govt, with the govt banks, are still trying to save Jet or create a new Jet. Why would the govt be going through that process and at the same time dismantle all the value Jet has??? I have to say, I am really confused by your and edealinfo's posts. If your opinion is just kill Jet and let the banks not get anything for their debt own and have indigo be a bigger force in aviation, then your plan works best. Btw IMHO India needs as affordable air travel that is sustainable. Below cost airfare is destructive. The lowest tier of traffic that might be lost if fares rise say 5%, will travel via train. Business and tourists need stability in air travel. Employees want stable jobs as well.

Without air service, India's economy is going to grow slower. You cannot delay growth. If it happens, you multiply off it.

Right now I estimate India is short the capacity of about 50 to 70 aircraft. If those missed opportunities are not made up quickly, India will grow slower economically. There must be, as you called it, a mad dash to relate these aircraft. Jet has removed about 120 aircraft from service. So the oversupply is gone and we are in shortage.

If those aircraft are replaced timely, economic growth over the next 12 months creates a demand for another 100 to 150 aircraft.

Jet has no value in my opinion. If I am wrong, some of what they were will be saved. Customer loyalty is forever reduced. The fleet, even if restarted I'll be small.

Damage is being done to the Indian economy by not meeting customer demands:
How is hotel occupancy?
How is the pace of new business contracts?
Tourism spending?

There is more, but aviation enables business. Passenger air travel is a small part of the economy that enables much other growth.

I believe SpiceJet and Indigo are both sustainable. Both made profits during the worst.

Indigo will add 30% more capacity over the next 12 months no matter my opinion. They have the profits and means to do so. I believe 50 aircraft, but larger gauge.

SpiceJet will add the NGs (was it 15:or 26?) plus resume MAX deliveries soon. So a growth of what, 45 to 50 aircraft in 12 months?

GoAir will add NEOs. 8 to 15 over that time.
Vistara will grow.
AirAsia will grow.
Jet might return, but with how many aircraft?

So the market needs 50 to 70 aircraft NOW!
There will be economic growth for 100 to 150 more.

So I add up about 130 aircraft in 12 months out of a need for 150 to 220. Hence why I predict it will take 15 to 24 months to go back to over-supplied.

The market hasn't stabilized. It went from over-supplied to under-served. That is what happens when about 120 aircraft are suddenly withdrawn from service. Stabilization would be for me to snap my fingers and put 50 to 70 aircraft in service. That won't happen under any scenario.

I believe you are not understanding the nature of exponential economic growth. It is either enabled or doesn't happen. I believe India is approaching the steep portion of the S curve of economic growth. To achieve that they need transportation, electricity, education, clean water, and sewers.

Jet was one little part of the big picture, 14% of domestic travel and about the same international, perhaps a wee bit more.

So I believe my post is correct. The GoI had 8+ months to solve this problem.

I agree with stability is needed. But also markets need growth as demand asks for it. I believe Indigo, SpiceJet, and GoAir will provide that stability. The market is working.

Lightsaber
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behramjee
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:03 pm

https://m.economictimes.com/markets/sto ... 881923.cms

A good read on why the 9W stock price has not yet crashed as logicially it should have last week !
 
edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 15, 2019 11:34 pm

behramjee wrote:
https://m.economictimes.com/markets/stocks/news/why-the-jet-air-stock-doesnt-reflect-its-existential-crisis/articleshow/68881923.cms

A good read on why the 9W stock price has not yet crashed as logicially it should have last week !


Not a good read in my opinion as it makes no sense.

1. "The biggest factor undergirding the airline’s stock price is the assumption that lenders converted their debt to 11.2 crore new shares at a hypothetical conversion price of Rs 250 per share. "

2. "Potential suitors are likely to explore investing in Jet when its lenders might have to agree to a 100 per cent haircut given the airline’s high accumulated losses, other payable liabilities and bloated costs."

The above are impossible assumptions! How can any sane investor consider those assumption unless you are saying that Indian investors are a bunch of idiots.
 
edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 15, 2019 11:50 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:

edealinfo - I know you are very confident that Spice's bet will 100% payoff. Maybe you are right. But you keep asking why the press is not slanting the story to you pov. Perhaps the press feels that those airlines are being responsible for not wasting money on rash airplane leases for temporary slots. When an airline only has 20 aircraft, the cost of ramping up 10 more aircraft to only then lose those slots 3-6 months from now, might not be worth it. That's really it. I don't think it is anymore complicated than that. No conspiracy. I think most of us on this board want the GOI to use an ordered approach in either saving Jet or reallocating the slots. The crony capitalism and lack of real rules has destroyed Indian aviation. Hence why most of us aren't rooting for your first come first serve approach after the govt publicly said they were temporary.


>> I know you are very confident that Spice's bet will 100% payoff.
I am not but I give them credit for having the kahunas to take that gamble. Risk is proportionate to reward. Perhaps they could hit it big (or lose their shirt). Fortune favors the brave.

>>>> Perhaps the press feels that those airlines are being responsible for not wasting money on rash airplane leases for temporary slots. When an airline only has 20 aircraft, the cost of ramping up 10 more aircraft to only then lose those slots 3-6 months from now, might not be worth it. That's really it. I don't think it is anymore complicated than that.

As an analogy, let's say LHR had 30 available slots that they were giving up for free on a first come first served basis. What would you do as an airline executive? Would you, like Vistara, say you had planned, over a year ago, to get aircraft only 4 month from now, so you are going to pass on the LHR slots? Or, would you work with lessors or your parent company (e..e, Singapore Airlines) to try to get aircraft to secure the slots which could in the years ahead become the lifeblood for your network. Now substitute LHR with BOM and replace 30 slots with a lot more slots.

Note that the main reason that Tata was previously interested in Jet was for their BOM slots. Now, when it available for free , in a short window, on a first come first serve basis, they make little effort to go after it. How do they intend for BOM to ever become their hub? Why don't the journalists ask Vistara these questions?

Separately, I am not advocating for a first come first serve basis to be policy. I am only saying that it is the reality.

Separately, you indicate that the government should protect the slots, to preserve Jet's value. I think we are well beyond the stage before any meaningful value can be extracted from Jet. Even the banks know that which is why they refused even the 1,000 crore loan. No more throwing good money after bad.
 
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 15, 2019 11:54 pm

Building on my estimate the current shortfall is 50 to 70 aircraft.

SpiceJet and Indigo plan to add almost 50 aircraft by summer end.

I expect economic growth to need 8 to 14 more aircraft every month, but stalled due to the shock down. e.g., Spring break has started for more US students. If a family missed a trip to India, a hotel, restaurants, and tourist destinations didn't do business. I know a broker who didn't make it to India, so a few hundred people won't get overtime until he (more importantly his wife) flies to India. Hence why restarting is important.

By end of summer, it looks like mostly back to normal.

https://wap.business-standard.com/artic ... 793_1.html

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lutfi
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:05 am

Also - SQ are very protective of their brand. Adding 50% to an airlines size in a matter of weeks - do you have time to properly assess the cabin crew, Pilots and Engineers you need to hire? Is it acceptable to have LCC configuration on leased A320 when your brand has been 3 class? Retraining Jet Pilots to A320 will take time anyway

SQ has always acted deliberately and with a long term plan - why expect a leopard to change its spots?

Vistara operation is already got a lot to deal with (international flights, delivery of B787). Suddenly trying to increase airline size 50-100% is very risky on top of that. They’ll pick up plenty of slots anyway, and can shift some flying from DEL to BOM if need be
 
edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:15 am

lutfi wrote:
Also - SQ are very protective of their brand. Adding 50% to an airlines size in a matter of weeks - do you have time to properly assess the cabin crew, Pilots and Engineers you need to hire? Is it acceptable to have LCC configuration on leased A320 when your brand has been 3 class? Retraining Jet Pilots to A320 will take time anyway

SQ has always acted deliberately and with a long term plan - why expect a leopard to change its spots?

Vistara operation is already got a lot to deal with (international flights, delivery of B787). Suddenly trying to increase airline size 50-100% is very risky on top of that. They’ll pick up plenty of slots anyway, and can shift some flying from DEL to BOM if need be


Vistara's 787 don't come until March of next year (2020) at the very earliest. Probably even the crumbs won't be available at that time.

No one is asking Vistara to increase its fleet by 50 to 100%. If it brought in 3 aircraft, it could take its pick of prime time slots. Using the 3 aircraft to do roundtrips with 1 segment covering BOM in each round trip would mean that they would take a minimum 40 departing slots or 20 slot pairs in a single day. Getting 3 planes on a base of 22 aircraft would mean a 13.6% increase in capacity, very quickly, on routes that actually bring in the moolah. Singapore Airlines with its vast experience (and good access to lessors) could have easily managed to bring in those aircraft for Vistara.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:18 am

lightsaber wrote:
...

SpiceJet and Indigo plan to add almost 50 aircraft by summer end.
...
I expect economic growth to need 8 to 14 more aircraft every month, but stalled due to the shock down. e.g., Spring break has started for more US students. If a family missed a trip to India, a hotel, restaurants, and tourist destinations didn't do business. I know a broker who didn't make it to India, so a few hundred people won't get overtime until he (more importantly his wife) flies to India. Hence why restarting is important.
...
Lightsaber


Unless the demography you described in the second para is self-connecting type(which I sincerely doubt), SG and 6E have no role to play. The premium legacies still have to transfer their passengers to UK or AI at Delhi/Mumbai (or) go direct to secondary cities.

Changi may see increased India traffic as FSC/LCC integration is better at that hub. Even Dubai International may see FSC/LCC transfers thru Merhaba self-connect.

Indian LCCs are an upgrade to travellers generally prefer surface transport, not a substitute to premium legacies. They will never be.
 
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:50 am

lightsaber wrote:
I believe you are not understanding the nature of exponential economic growth. It is either enabled or doesn't happen. I believe India is approaching the steep portion of the S curve of economic growth. To achieve that they need transportation, electricity, education, clean water, and sewers.


When one lives with clean water, electricity, good transportation, and good supermarkets there we take it for granted, only with a storm do we realize how much harder life is, and how much less gets done. In my life we have seen Venezuela crater from a rich country to a crisis, lots of it caused by parts of the system crumbling. They are rich in oil but can't pump it to be able to export. Jet as a company has been crashing in a similar manner.

The Bremerton Rotary Clubs donated the money to change 3 villages in Africa, arranged to have wells drilled for a total cost of $ 20K, Over 1,000 in the villages but that sum was beyond imagine to them. Half of the women in the village would walk miles to the lake, wade far out hoping to not be eaten by crocs to fill the jugs, wash the clothes on the bank, then walk home with the village water. The deep hand pumped well saved over 2 hours of every villagers day and reduced greatly illnesses, causing great growth.
 
juliuswong
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:51 am

Update 16th April 2019:
B737-85R 34797 2007 OE-IBV Avolon regd 11 April 2019, parked at BDQ (+ 34798/1920 OE-IBX ex VT-JGP) ex VT-JGQ
Source: https://www.skyliner-aviation.de/regdb. ... av4&page=3
- Life is a journey, travel it well -
 
edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:02 am

juliuswong wrote:
Update 16th April 2019:
B737-85R 34797 2007 OE-IBV Avolon regd 11 April 2019, parked at BDQ (+ 34798/1920 OE-IBX ex VT-JGP) ex VT-JGQ
Source: https://www.skyliner-aviation.de/regdb. ... av4&page=3


Can you explain what you post means, in English?
 
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SQ789
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:04 am

edealinfo wrote:
juliuswong wrote:
Update 16th April 2019:
B737-85R 34797 2007 OE-IBV Avolon regd 11 April 2019, parked at BDQ (+ 34798/1920 OE-IBX ex VT-JGP) ex VT-JGQ
Source: https://www.skyliner-aviation.de/regdb. ... av4&page=3


Can you explain what you post means, in English?

Means those planes are returning back to lessors. In addition, I heard only 5 planes remain including 1 737's and 4 ATR 72's. All the flights that are airborne now is an ATR planes.
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:22 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
...

SpiceJet and Indigo plan to add almost 50 aircraft by summer end.
...
I expect economic growth to need 8 to 14 more aircraft every month, but stalled due to the shock down. e.g., Spring break has started for more US students. If a family missed a trip to India, a hotel, restaurants, and tourist destinations didn't do business. I know a broker who didn't make it to India, so a few hundred people won't get overtime until he (more importantly his wife) flies to India. Hence why restarting is important.
...
Lightsaber


Unless the demography you described in the second para is self-connecting type(which I sincerely doubt), SG and 6E have no role to play. The premium legacies still have to transfer their passengers to UK or AI at Delhi/Mumbai (or) go direct to secondary cities.

Changi may see increased India traffic as FSC/LCC integration is better at that hub. Even Dubai International may see FSC/LCC transfers thru Merhaba self-connect.

Indian LCCs are an upgrade to travellers generally prefer surface transport, not a substitute to premium legacies. They will never be.

If SG sends business class seats from the ex-Jet 738s to Dubai, it helps meet demand.

What matters is to kick start transportation. The person I know who influences the mist jobs in India usually flies coach all the way from LAX.

Transportation needs to restart at the market needs.

Premium was the worst over-supplied prior to Jet failure. It too is now under supplied. I agree 6E won't meet those needs. But the reality is Jet had too premium a configuration for what people would pay. Some J is needed, but half of what was offered.

Premium is more than a seat. It is more service, in my opinion. For example, their are LCCs I prefer over business class as the service is that much better. Of course I prefer if someone else pays for a good business class.

Jet offered too much. The people I described would happily fly DXB to their Indian destination in ULCC. Then again, one was homeless for about 18 months and will never forget the value of money because of it.

Lightsaber
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edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:31 am

Naresh Goyal first planned to bid for Jet Airways in January
https://www.livemint.com/companies/news ... 17960.html
 
juliuswong
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:35 am

anshabhi wrote:
unrave wrote:
juliuswong wrote:
All seriousness aside, this thread started eight months ago, a lot of us saw the writings on the wall. But there were few staunch 9W supporters who denied every possible going under scenario, some even stated all these bad news were staged by 9W competitors... Well it imploded by itself. Wonder where are all these members now? "Hot slush fund by 6E" was hotly used I remember....hmmm

Are they still reading this thread? Wonder what would be their defence now?


It's possible that they were somehow going to be directly affected by 9W's meltdown and wanted things to be nice.

There's a school friend of mine who joined 9W as a FA just 8 months ago , went around to many countries and was quite happy and is now staring at an uncertain future ....

@anshabhi Sorry to hear about your friend. I hope s/he can find a new job soon. God bless all the hardworking staff, both 9W and KF. I can't imagine what the staff is going through at the moment, especially those ex-KF who have joined 9W after the previous collapsed.

@unrave, yes, I can't think for reason why certain posters here think that all of the players in India must/ need to jack up their current operation just to fill up the void left by 9W. Each airline has their own priority, and to add capacity overnight is not an easy tasks, the manpower, infrastructure, logistics, operation etc. Moreover, not all airlines are opportunists, some prefer to grow organically in line with their annual strategy plan. Yes, the 9W void is lucrative, however it comes with its downside as well, some airlines are just threading the Indian aviation industry cautiously. God knows how much red tape and obstacle they will encounter when they stack up their operation massively overnight.
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:35 am

edealinfo wrote:
Indian investors are a bunch of idiots.

They are
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edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:47 am

1. Lenders fail to reach consensus over emergency refuelling of Jet Airways
2. Some banks demand more pledged shares of Goyal and planes owned by Jet as collateral for releasing loans.
3. Bidders will be given until May 10 to submit a bid as they need 3 weeks to prepare a bid.
4. Goyal had pledged 31% to banks and has agreed to pledge more, totalling 41.1% of Jet’s shares but hasn’t formally done so yet.
5. The finance lease or EMIs on some 777s are supposed to be completed this year. {yikes, they are so close to being fully paid off!!!}

Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/68898011.cms?
Last edited by edealinfo on Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
DTWLAX
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:48 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Different POV. SpiceJet is being force-fed for potential winter hibernation. If Modi is not next PM, SpiceJet is toast. SG will face the same fate as 9W.

What SG trying to do is make itself relevant.

What has Modi got to do with SG? What is the connection?
And if Modi does become the PM again, is he planning to keep funding SG for the next 5 years?
 
edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:49 am

DTWLAX wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

What has Modi got to do with SG?


He is credited with conjuring the 'ab ki baar Modi sarkar' that the Congress thinks helped Modi win the 2014 elections.
Last edited by edealinfo on Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:04 am, edited 4 times in total.
 
VTORD
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:57 am

DTWLAX wrote:
What has Modi got to do with SG? What is the connection?
And if Modi does become the PM again, is he planning to keep funding SG for the next 5 years?

The "reasoning" is that the promoter of SpiceJet Ajay Singh is close to the PM (he coined the campaign slogan for him the last time around) so SG got all sorts of favors when they went through a similar patch and their luck might just run out with a change in power.
 
edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:59 am

VTORD wrote:
DTWLAX wrote:
What has Modi got to do with SG? What is the connection?
And if Modi does become the PM again, is he planning to keep funding SG for the next 5 years?

The "reasoning" is that the promoter of SpiceJet Ajay Singh is close to the PM (he coined the campaign slogan for him the last time around) so SG got all sorts of favors when they went through a similar patch and their luck might just run out with a change in power.


You summed it all very well. But want exactly does, "ab ki baar Modi sarkar", mean, in English?
 
juliuswong
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:05 am

Out of concern, Boeing will soon need to find takers for Jet Airways's 225 737max order (8 delivered, 2 in final assembly line). If Spicejet is to take over most 9W's capacity as rumoured, they might need to jack their order for 206 (13 delivered).
- Life is a journey, travel it well -
 
CaliguyNYC
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:45 am

Edealinfo said - “Separately, I am not advocating for a first come first serve basis to be policy. I am only saying that it is the reality”

Remember you are wondering why the press isn’t agreeing with you. It is not a reality that the slots are perminant. You are trying to make it a reality. Maybe you work for Spice or just love them. Either way, I think it is wrong for the GOI to say they are temporary as a ruse to then make them permanent.. there is nothing stopping them from being open and saying they are permanent. What you are arguing for leads to a horrible net outcome for indian aviation. Rule of law is what they need. The good news is what ever we say here has zero affect. I always laugh when people say there are paid blogggers here. Why would anyone pay to influence this board. Plus it is obvious to most of us all the commments not anchored in real business norms.
 
behramjee
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 3:16 am

edealinfo wrote:
1. Lenders fail to reach consensus over emergency refuelling of Jet Airways
2. Some banks demand more pledged shares of Goyal and planes owned by Jet as collateral for releasing loans.
3. Bidders will be given until May 10 to submit a bid as they need 3 weeks to prepare a bid.
4. Goyal had pledged 31% to banks and has agreed to pledge more, totalling 41.1% of Jet’s shares but hasn’t formally done so yet.
5. The finance lease or EMIs on some 777s are supposed to be completed this year. {yikes, they are so close to being fully paid off!!!}

Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/68898011.cms?


As far as point 3 is concerned, if by 15MAY, 9W does not resume a near full schedule, it will lose numerous slots (legally) at many slot constrained airports worldwide and in India itself due to the 80/20 utilization rule.

Also with regards to the article I had previously posted on 9W stock, just to be clear I do not agree with it nor do I understand why the price hasnt dropped to Rs 20 range. But this was the only article I've read which offered some explanations for it which again I find very hard to believe.
 
vadodara
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 3:21 am

CaliguyNYC wrote:
I am going to give the Jet unions the benefit of the doubt. I think they have behaved very responsibly through all this drama. Sad thing is because they didn’t go nuclear, the govt did nothing. Such a sad state of Indian affairs. Looks like the French/AF union approach is better suited for india rather than Southwest (meaning a responsible holistic big picture view of not hurting your employer while still fighting the fight)


I thought u were an investment banker.

Why is it the govt’s job to bail 9W or ensure there are ‘F’ or ‘J’ seats out of Bombay?

Actually Modi sarkar is ensuring that no fat cats get bailed out.
 
Sydscott
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 3:25 am

It looks like it is goodbye to Jet Airways. While that is sad for all involved it means opportunities for Jet employee's at other carriers that are hopefully more stable with a competitor gone. And witht eh order books of Indian Carriers being what they are this will be a temporary blip.
 
bennett123
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:41 am

IMO, it would be reckless of other carriers to expand to take up slots on a temporary basis and could lead to further failures.

GOI needs to decide which is the priority, connectivity to and within India or NG.
 
avier
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:55 am

Etihad Airways, National Investment and Infrastructure Fund (NIIF) and private equity firms TPG Capital and Indigo Partners were shortlisted on Monday to place binding bids.

https://www.cnbctv18.com/aviation/jet-airways-lenders-shortlist-etihad-niif-2-private-equity-firms-for-binding-bids-report-2967141.htm
 
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 5:08 am

behramjee wrote:

As far as point 3 is concerned, if by 15MAY, 9W does not resume a near full schedule, it will lose numerous slots (legally) at many slot constrained airports worldwide and in India itself due to the 80/20 utilization rule.


I'm afraid India will lose access to several slot constrained airports. LHR is gone. Looks like HKG is gone and no new slots will open up there until at east 2023.
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lutfi
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:34 am

Don't Indigo already have slots for HK?
 
DIJKKIJK
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:03 am

Saw a 9W 77W parked in the KLM maintenance area in AMS a couple of days ago. They had ceased international ops a day earlier. Impounding for non-payment of dues??
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:07 am

lutfi wrote:
Don't Indigo already have slots for HK?

6E and SG have one slot pair each. Jet held multiple slots which will be lost if it goes down
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Sydscott
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:15 am

unrave wrote:
lutfi wrote:
Don't Indigo already have slots for HK?

6E and SG have one slot pair each. Jet held multiple slots which will be lost if it goes down


Looks like Air India also has 2 slot pairs at HKG. One of which they use for an onward flight to KIX or ICN so they could potentially untag those and add a frequency to an Indian City if required.
 
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:21 am

Sydscott wrote:
Looks like Air India also has 2 slot pairs at HKG. One of which they use for an onward flight to KIX or ICN so they could potentially untag those and add a frequency to an Indian City if required.

Yes that is an absolute waste of a very valuable slot. But you can't expect Air India to take rational commercial decisions.
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juliuswong
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:26 am

DIJKKIJK wrote:
Saw a 9W 77W parked in the KLM maintenance area in AMS a couple of days ago. They had ceased international ops a day earlier. Impounding for non-payment of dues??

Yes, more specifically it is VT-JEW.

https://blueswandaily.com/wfs-seizes-bo ... ling-fees/

https://www.businesstoday.in/sectors/av ... 36052.html
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juliuswong
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:29 am

Additional note, mentioned before here. 9W's LHR 3x daily slot (2x BOM, 1x DEL) are now permanently swapped to Etihad.

https://twitter.com/LondonAirTravel/sta ... olvency%2F
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:36 am

Management is likely to announce suspension of all operations soon.
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anshabhi
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:37 am

9W stock finally cracking today -- 10% down so far and market is open for another 2 hours.

Seems traders were actually waiting for final clarity on banks stance on giving loans
 
Asiaflyer
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:50 am

9W stock was down more than -17% at one stage but recovering to -10% again.. Finally market also believes that 9W is in too bad shape to be bailed out.
SQ,MI,MH,CX,KA,CA,CZ,MU,KE,OZ,QF,NZ,FD,JQ,3K,5J,IT,AI,IC,QR,SK,LF,KL,AF,LH,LX,OS,SR,BA,SN,FR,WF,1I,5T,VZ,VX,AC,NW,UA,US,
 
rlwynn
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:51 am

What is this. They just now noticed the problems? From today.

"Directed Secretary @MoCA_GoI to review issues related to Jet Airways, especially increasing fares, flight cancellations etc. Asked him to take necessary steps to protect passenger rights and safety; and to work with all stakeholders for their well being."
Last edited by rlwynn on Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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juliuswong
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:51 am

How it all started.

Image
FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL Issue Date: 26 May - I June. 1993

Image
FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL Issue Date: 24 - 30 November.
- Life is a journey, travel it well -
 
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:28 am

juliuswong wrote:
How it all started.

Image
FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL Issue Date: 26 May - I June. 1993

Image
FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL Issue Date: 24 - 30 November.

The images don't load
Denial of racism is as egregious as racism itself
 
Asiaflyer
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:29 am

Latest news on Reuters:
"The management of India's Jet Airways has proposed to suspend all operations of the debt-laden Indian airline at its board meeting, sources told ET Now on Tuesday.
Sources also told ET Now that former Chairman Naresh Goyal had withdrawn from making a bid for a stake in the company.
Jet Airways did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment."
SQ,MI,MH,CX,KA,CA,CZ,MU,KE,OZ,QF,NZ,FD,JQ,3K,5J,IT,AI,IC,QR,SK,LF,KL,AF,LH,LX,OS,SR,BA,SN,FR,WF,1I,5T,VZ,VX,AC,NW,UA,US,
 
Asiaflyer
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:31 am

More news coming out, although not confirmed yet:

16-Apr-2019 12:28:28 - RPT-U.S. EXIM BANK RECALLS ENTIRE 20 BLN RUPEES LOANS EXTENDED TO JET AIRWAYS TO RECOVER ALL OUTSTANDING DUES-ET NOW CITING SOURCES
16-Apr-2019 12:28:30 - REFILE-U.S. EXIM BANK WANTS TO TAKE POSSESSION OF ALL JET AIRCRAFT FUNDED BY THEM - ET NOW, CITING SOURCES (REMOVES EXTRANEOUS WORDS)
SQ,MI,MH,CX,KA,CA,CZ,MU,KE,OZ,QF,NZ,FD,JQ,3K,5J,IT,AI,IC,QR,SK,LF,KL,AF,LH,LX,OS,SR,BA,SN,FR,WF,1I,5T,VZ,VX,AC,NW,UA,US,
 
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:01 am

IDERAs have been issued to deregister 7 more aircraft operated by Jet bringing the total number to 38
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bennett123
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:08 am

How many are EXIM funded.
 
anshabhi
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:20 am

unrave wrote:
juliuswong wrote:
How it all started.

Image
FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL Issue Date: 26 May - I June. 1993

Image
FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL Issue Date: 24 - 30 November.

The images don't load

Right click on image icons and open in new tab. They don't load because of cloudfare.
Asiaflyer wrote:
More news coming out, although not confirmed yet:

16-Apr-2019 12:28:28 - RPT-U.S. EXIM BANK RECALLS ENTIRE 20 BLN RUPEES LOANS EXTENDED TO JET AIRWAYS TO RECOVER ALL OUTSTANDING DUES-ET NOW CITING SOURCES
16-Apr-2019 12:28:30 - REFILE-U.S. EXIM BANK WANTS TO TAKE POSSESSION OF ALL JET AIRCRAFT FUNDED BY THEM - ET NOW, CITING SOURCES (REMOVES EXTRANEOUS WORDS)

So basically 9W doesn't own a single asset at all
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:23 am

Asiaflyer wrote:
More news coming out, although not confirmed yet:

16-Apr-2019 12:28:28 - RPT-U.S. EXIM BANK RECALLS ENTIRE 20 BLN RUPEES LOANS EXTENDED TO JET AIRWAYS TO RECOVER ALL OUTSTANDING DUES-ET NOW CITING SOURCES
16-Apr-2019 12:28:30 - REFILE-U.S. EXIM BANK WANTS TO TAKE POSSESSION OF ALL JET AIRCRAFT FUNDED BY THEM - ET NOW, CITING SOURCES (REMOVES EXTRANEOUS WORDS)


Either this is fake news or a lot of details are missing.

1) EXIM gives guarantees on brand new sales. It doesn't give loans.
2) 10-12 year after the sale, multiple refinances, secondary liens later, I sincerely doubt EXIM has any interest left on these.
3) Commercial Banks which actually own these assets may very well want to repossess, but I think ET is just trying to spice up the story by throwing EXIM there.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:34 am

unrave wrote:
Management is likely to announce suspension of all operations soon.

That just ended their forward bookings:

A source for the temporary .grounding:

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1RS0KL

Lightsaber
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways Latest Developments Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:36 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
1) EXIM gives guarantees on brand new sales. It doesn't give loans.

This first statement is FALSE to begin with. US-EXIM absolutely finances exports
Fails the factcheck right away.
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