Lightsabre obviously is a ver knowledgable guy (or gal). A fact that he/she seems to miss is that the Indian market is growing thru the 2nd and 3rd tier cities. 9W makes no difference to it.
First, thank you for the compliment. My profile is accurate, I'm a dude.
Growth in those 3rd tier cities is mostly to 1st tier. I believe the 9W ATRs made a difference there. I also believe between SpiceJet and Indigo's ATR expansion that the market will be adequately served.
I fully admit to focusing on 1st tier markets. I believe in the mega urbanization trend and that in India the new airports at Mumbai and Delhi will add far more traffic over their first decade than all the new airports and existing 3rd tier airports.
India aviation has an exciting future ahead. It will help India's economy grow. What is needed is large hubs.
9W played an important role in the hubbing. The issue was their unit costs were above revenue. Since the replacement unit costs are about 70% of what Jet's were, this will allow faster growth at a profit.
As I posted before, but I shall word differently, it simply isn't possible to replace the lost Jet capacity fast enough to bring fares back down to the over supplied prices for 15 months even if Jet restarts. Because of that, the airlines that grab the high premium markets, which is always tier 1, will make exceptional profits.
Airlines had better keep costs in check as within 24 months I forsee the market returning to over supplied. It will then be over supplied with the two lowest cost providers healthier financially and expanded substantially. Heck, GoAir has enough time to reorganize properly.
3rd tier cities are interesting, but might be 10% of the growth.
Winter is coming.