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lightsaber
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:45 am

Bhadra wrote:
Hey guys, nice meeting you all - it's my very first post in here. I'm a financial analyst/fund manager by occupation and an aviation enthusiast. I've been following several forums in here for a while now and for most part, I'm impressed by the depth of information that you guys have - thanks for sharing, you have my sincere appreciation for that.

I do have a question for you guys though. There are close to a dozen references to the term 'hot money' by user 'BawliBooch' just on this page and most of it is with reference to the source of funding for Interglobe Aviation. Can someone tell me what it is?

Disclosure: As part of my work I've done extensive assessment of the financials of Interglobe Aviation and I'm of the opinion that it is one of well managed (financially and operationally) public companies in the country (not just in civil aviation industry).

Obviously, I'm a little surprised to find that someone has figured out a discrepancy in reported financials of the company that I haven't. Oh, please respond with facts only and spare me your inner voice. Thank you!

You will find there is disagreement on the quality of Interglobe's numbers. I am satisfied and see excellent performance in a challenging market. Going from memory, they did a small equity sale. They also bought NEOs in bulk at attractive pricing. They are able to sell the aircraft to leasing companies for more than their contract price. This is called a sale/leaseback. However, they are doing a mix of operating leases and purchase leases. For those not in the know, at the end of an opperations lease, the leasing company gets the aircraft and escrow account for maintenance. In a purchase lease, at the end Indigo owns the aircraft and maintenance escrow account.

Last quarter maintenance due cost more than the account (due to CEO lease extensions and I believe high Indian taxes).

But this is a Jet thread. The comparison is why Jet and other Indian Airlines are struggling while Indigo grows quickly.

There is angst on the quick growth. I believe quick aviation growth is stimulating the Indian economy. But the new passengers are frugal. Others believe there is too much competition. As someone who believes in economic growth and that air travel is an elastic market, I see continued fast growth. Others want to see a breather.

Since you are familiar with Indigo's numbers, you already know they made a small profit and slightly reduced their debt last quarter while improving their cash situation. You would also know they have pre-allocated much cash for future aircraft purchases. I speculate that they are keeping dollars/Euros and other currencies out of India as a hedge on further Rupee depreciation as they will spend that on aircraft anyway.

Lightsaber
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BawliBooch
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:14 am

behramjee wrote:
If I had to suggest, the cost cut backs on the network side of things I would implement for 9W are as follows:

1. Suspend YYZ and code share via AMS CDG with KL AF. 9W also currently code share with AC via LHR so they have their bases covered for Canada!

2. Defer MAN and SYD launches till W19

3. Defer all new aircraft deliveries in 2019 till 2021

4. Wet/Dry lease out 2 B77Ws to anyone interested

5. Suspend MAA-CDG

1. Is 9W loosing that much money on YYZ? One decent desi option to Canada! :(
3. They are retiring some aircraft as the new MAX's come onboard. So their net fleet strength remains the same.
4. Agree. They have too many 77W's - the figure I hear is 4 surplus 77W's. perhaps these could be leased out. The A330-300 is good enough for all of Jet's international ops.

Bhadra wrote:
Disclosure: As part of my work I've done extensive assessment of the financials of Interglobe Aviation and I'm of the opinion that it is one of well managed (financially and operationally) public companies in the country (not just in civil aviation industry).

Obviously, I'm a little surprised to find that someone has figured out a discrepancy in reported financials of the company that I haven't. Oh, please respond with facts only and spare me your inner voice. Thank you!

Welcome to forum Bhadra! I was quite expecting a new member to come in and join this interesting discussion. Welcome again!

As journalists, we are trained to spot discrepancies in reported financials and then go snooping around to see what is not reported. And in doing that, we often go by our inner voice. Its just what we do! :smile:

I am particularly focussed on finding the source of this limitless cash-supply that *some* Indian airlines have found. Every decade or so, one airline manages to find some such secret Santa, goes on to make an impact in the market, only to fall spectacularly when that source of cash moves on to another new star on the block.

One airline, Jet Airways kind of bucked this general trend. They survived this twice in the past and kept flying.

lightsaber wrote:
But this is a Jet thread. The comparison is why Jet and other Indian Airlines are struggling while Indigo grows quickly.

There is angst on the quick growth. I believe quick aviation growth is stimulating the Indian economy. But the new passengers are frugal. Others believe there is too much competition. As someone who believes in economic growth and that air travel is an elastic market, I see continued fast growth. Others want to see a breather.

I dont think there is "angst" @lightsaber. But the growth has to be real & sustainable. Not growth manufactured with statistical jugglery and hot money.
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juliuswong
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:15 am

It seems they are almost always at precarious position every now and then. Since their last credit crunch (lease out A330, B77W, defer and cancel order, closed down BRU etc) and now this, what have they done in between to correct the bad financial situation? How long will these US300-800 million will last them this time?
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Bhadra
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:42 am

lightsaber wrote:
Bhadra wrote:
Hey guys, nice meeting you all - it's my very first post in here. I'm a financial analyst/fund manager by occupation and an aviation enthusiast. I've been following several forums in here for a while now and for most part, I'm impressed by the depth of information that you guys have - thanks for sharing, you have my sincere appreciation for that.

I do have a question for you guys though. There are close to a dozen references to the term 'hot money' by user 'BawliBooch' just on this page and most of it is with reference to the source of funding for Interglobe Aviation. Can someone tell me what it is?

Disclosure: As part of my work I've done extensive assessment of the financials of Interglobe Aviation and I'm of the opinion that it is one of well managed (financially and operationally) public companies in the country (not just in civil aviation industry).

Obviously, I'm a little surprised to find that someone has figured out a discrepancy in reported financials of the company that I haven't. Oh, please respond with facts only and spare me your inner voice. Thank you!

You will find there is disagreement on the quality of Interglobe's numbers. I am satisfied and see excellent performance in a challenging market. Going from memory, they did a small equity sale. They also bought NEOs in bulk at attractive pricing. They are able to sell the aircraft to leasing companies for more than their contract price. This is called a sale/leaseback. However, they are doing a mix of operating leases and purchase leases. For those not in the know, at the end of an opperations lease, the leasing company gets the aircraft and escrow account for maintenance. In a purchase lease, at the end Indigo owns the aircraft and maintenance escrow account.

Last quarter maintenance due cost more than the account (due to CEO lease extensions and I believe high Indian taxes).

But this is a Jet thread. The comparison is why Jet and other Indian Airlines are struggling while Indigo grows quickly.

There is angst on the quick growth. I believe quick aviation growth is stimulating the Indian economy. But the new passengers are frugal. Others believe there is too much competition. As someone who believes in economic growth and that air travel is an elastic market, I see continued fast growth. Others want to see a breather.

Since you are familiar with Indigo's numbers, you already know they made a small profit and slightly reduced their debt last quarter while improving their cash situation. You would also know they have pre-allocated much cash for future aircraft purchases. I speculate that they are keeping dollars/Euros and other currencies out of India as a hedge on further Rupee depreciation as they will spend that on aircraft anyway.

Lightsaber


Thanks for a detailed reply. I couldn't agree more on everything that you've stated. As far as disagreement on the quality of declared/audited numbers is concerned, I wouldn't lose my sleep over it since there are no red flags that would make me doubt them.

Yes, they (promoters) sold minority stake in the market through OFS in CY17 to bring down their holdings to 75% (as required by regulation) and the money raised (a few thousand crores - if my memory is serving me correctly) was infused back into the company as equity.

This is a Jet thread and hence, without taking much space, if we're debating on why FSCs are struggling against well run LCCs in India, I'd suggest that the answer might be in competitive advantages that Interglobe (and SpiceJet to some extent) has over others. That might include (and not limited to) age of the fleet, fleet utilization (in comparison to Jet's domestic ops), cost of acquisition, operational efficiency, density of routes, duration of the expansion of fleet coinciding with the expansion of relevant market (of budget travellers), so on and so forth. Without taking anything away from Jet, it would appear that they're having significant disadvantages in all these areas (at the moment, at least).

Cheers!
 
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:51 am

juliuswong wrote:
It seems they are almost always at precarious position every now and then. Since their last credit crunch (lease out A330, B77W, defer and cancel order, closed down BRU etc) and now this, what have they done in between to correct the bad financial situation? How long will these US300-800 million will last them this time?


Given that they made a cash loss of ~USD150m last quarter, this money will last them for a couple of quarters. They should be able to monetise their FF program for a fair chunk of $$ by then. Profits are nowhere in their horizon though.
India: World's fastest growing major economy. World's fastest growing aviation market.
 
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Spiderguy252
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Aug 29, 2018 7:19 am

Is Jet's FFP really so valuable that a portion of it sells for hundreds of millions of dollars?
Vahroone
 
binayak
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:03 am

BawliBooch wrote:
1. Is 9W loosing that much money on YYZ? One decent desi option to Canada! :(
3. They are retiring some aircraft as the new MAX's come onboard. So their net fleet strength remains the same.
4. Agree. They have too many 77W's - the figure I hear is 4 surplus 77W's. perhaps these could be leased out. The A330-300 is good enough for all of Jet's international ops.
.

1. The equipment seems to be an issue there. Can be better served by a333. A 77W seems too much. KL already flies DEL AMS so downgauging that leg won't be much of an issue.

4. Sorry I disagree there. All their 77Ws are utilised currently. They no longer have any problems with them other than that F cabin. Sometimes the highest fare bucket for J is nearly equal to their F price. Still people are ready to pay for the J even at that price as evident.
Plus they'll sell and lease back all the 10 they have. After two years, after they are refurbished, jet will benefit a lot from them . International operations has been a prime source of revenue for them.
The current fleet is enough for few years. So the 5 a332s and 10 789s they have in order can be taken after 2020.
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:45 am

Spiderguy252 wrote:
Is Jet's FFP really so valuable that a portion of it sells for hundreds of millions of dollars?

I wouldn't think so. But NG has a reputation of being a tough negotiator so me might actually pull it off
India: World's fastest growing major economy. World's fastest growing aviation market.
 
CaliguyNYC
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:43 pm

binayak wrote:
BawliBooch wrote:
1. Is 9W loosing that much money on YYZ? One decent desi option to Canada! :(
3. They are retiring some aircraft as the new MAX's come onboard. So their net fleet strength remains the same.
4. Agree. They have too many 77W's - the figure I hear is 4 surplus 77W's. perhaps these could be leased out. The A330-300 is good enough for all of Jet's international ops.
.

1. The equipment seems to be an issue there. Can be better served by a333. A 77W seems too much. KL already flies DEL AMS so downgauging that leg won't be much of an issue.

4. Sorry I disagree there. All their 77Ws are utilised currently. They no longer have any problems with them other than that F cabin. Sometimes the highest fare bucket for J is nearly equal to their F price. Still people are ready to pay for the J even at that price as evident.
Plus they'll sell and lease back all the 10 they have. After two years, after they are refurbished, jet will benefit a lot from them . International operations has been a prime source of revenue for them.
The current fleet is enough for few years. So the 5 a332s and 10 789s they have in order can be taken after 2020.


I think the main issue is that they do not code share with KL/DL on YYZ-AMS. They need to start that asap. Also KLM/9W can probably go from three flights a day on the YYZ-AMS route to 2 (one by each airline). On equipment, I feel 9W needs to rip out First asap. Maybe add premium economy in the First cabin to make the change cheaper and then do a whole redesign later.
As far as delaying SYD, to me it all depends on who is behind the flight. If the flight will have a solid O&D base (which it should) plus AF/KL/VS feeding into it through both code shares and their own metal, I think the flight could really work well. 9W on their own, probably not. Maybe do a metal neutral JV Europe-OZ with 9W, AF,KL,VS. None of these airlines serve OZ. They have to decide where they want the OZ hub to be. BOM seems like a good a place as any especially if these airlines want to make India work.
 
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Fri Aug 31, 2018 4:54 am

Bangalore Aviation's analysis of Jet's Q2 results:
https://www.bangaloreaviation.com/2018/ ... lysis.html

I find the outlook summary interesting:
Jet’s promoter indicated that they completed 25 years and intend to be around for another 25. For that to happen, a recapitalization in the short term followed by cost reduction in the medium term are critical. Recapitalization plans are underway and everything will be explored including additional loans, the sale of privilege program, subleasing of ATRs and sale-and-leaseback of the 737s. Additional equity from a strategic partner may also be an option.

In the medium term, Jet has to address its unit cost economics. A negative RASK-CASK equation cannot hold for a long period of time. Thus either that CASK has to be reduced or the RASK increased (ideally both). To put it simply, Jet has to sell more, sell higher and ensure that its flying costs lower. These three things will take up most of its efforts in the quarters to come.


Oh and this is a well reasoned analysis not a #PRHatchetJob.
India: World's fastest growing major economy. World's fastest growing aviation market.
 
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Fri Aug 31, 2018 10:05 am

RoC has indeed confirmed that Jet Airways is under investigation. Not a #PRHatchetJob afterall.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 613364.cms
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:54 pm

Moody's India has downgraded Jet Airways' rating by a notch to BB with a negative outlook citing its deteriorating financial profile.
https://www.icra.in/Rationale/ShowRatio ... /?Id=72964

This is of course a #PRHatchetJob by Moody's analysts paid off by rival airlines flush with hot money. According to 'insider sources' all is well with the airline. Save this post!
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Flying-Tiger
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:47 pm

If true just another sign of things not being in order at Jet Airways:

Jet Airways (9W, Mumbai Int'l) has delayed payments of August wages to 15% of its staff, well over 2,000 employees, due to the looming cash crisis, the Financial Times has reported.

An airline spokesperson insisted that all staff members would "eventually" be paid, although he did not name any specific timeline.


https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/70595-indias-jet-airways-delays-payments-to-staff
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,...
 
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:17 pm

It is certainly not, but they seem to have made some headway into offloading their FFP. Things should settle down once that cash comes in.
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RobK
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:11 pm

Jet Airways (9W, Mumbai Int'l) has delayed payments of August wages to 15% of its staff, well over 2,000 employees, due to the looming cash crisis, the Financial Times has reported.

An airline spokesperson insisted that all staff members would "eventually" be paid, although he did not name any specific timeline.


Heading the same way as Kingfisher. I guess we'll be seeing a lot of white tails at Boeing Field soon. Who could pick up their 75 frame order?
 
binayak
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:36 pm

RobK wrote:
Jet Airways (9W, Mumbai Int'l) has delayed payments of August wages to 15% of its staff, well over 2,000 employees, due to the looming cash crisis, the Financial Times has reported.

An airline spokesperson insisted that all staff members would "eventually" be paid, although he did not name any specific timeline.


Heading the same way as Kingfisher. I guess we'll be seeing a lot of white tails at Boeing Field soon. Who could pick up their 75 frame order?


Kingfisher hadn't paid their employees for straight 6 months. Spot the difference?
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RobK
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:44 pm

binayak wrote:
Kingfisher hadn't paid their employees for straight 6 months. Spot the difference?


No smoke without fire.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:49 pm

Flying-Tiger wrote:
If true just another sign of things not being in order at Jet Airways:

Jet Airways (9W, Mumbai Int'l) has delayed payments of August wages to 15% of its staff, well over 2,000 employees, due to the looming cash crisis, the Financial Times has reported.

An airline spokesperson insisted that all staff members would "eventually" be paid, although he did not name any specific timeline.


https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/70595-indias-jet-airways-delays-payments-to-staff

What is it with Indian Airlines thinking it is OK to delay salary.

While all paid, for 5 months AI wasn't timely.

Now Jet. My employer jumped through hoops to ensure one paycheck was on time due to a bank switch. Paper checks had to be mailed to make the deadline (stamp cancellation is legal payday) instead of handout at work.

I do not get the we can pay you late attitude.

Serious question, does TIMELY in financing have a more LAX attitude in India? It is what our banking system is based on...
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whywhyzee
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:13 pm

I can’t understand why people seem to think reducing YYZ would be in any way a good idea. If anything, AMS-YYZ needs a significant upguages. Toronto is the 4th busiest long haul route out of AMS, and is one of the fastest growing routes out of Toronto, it should get close to 700 000 pax this year. Toronto- India is also a huge market, with AC flying 12x weekly non stops, and 9W operating via AMS. Anna Aero quoted earlier this year that in 2017, roughly 75 000 pax flew non direct routes to DEL from YYZ alone (not including 9W as far as I read, with it being a legal direct flight). There is a reason they cut all North America flying except for YYZ, and upguaged to the 77W from the A333, and there is a reason that KLM flies an average of nearly 600 daily seats each way for during the high season between March to November, and only drops to ~400 in the winter, on top of AC being daily and TS at varied frequency. That is just one piece of that route, let alone DEL which itself is a huge market from YYZ, looking at probably close to 400 000 pax annually with AC and 9W each daily and all of the non-direct options.
 
behramjee
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:01 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
I can’t understand why people seem to think reducing YYZ would be in any way a good idea. If anything, AMS-YYZ needs a significant upguages. Toronto is the 4th busiest long haul route out of AMS, and is one of the fastest growing routes out of Toronto, it should get close to 700 000 pax this year. Toronto- India is also a huge market, with AC flying 12x weekly non stops, and 9W operating via AMS. Anna Aero quoted earlier this year that in 2017, roughly 75 000 pax flew non direct routes to DEL from YYZ alone (not including 9W as far as I read, with it being a legal direct flight). There is a reason they cut all North America flying except for YYZ, and upguaged to the 77W from the A333, and there is a reason that KLM flies an average of nearly 600 daily seats each way for during the high season between March to November, and only drops to ~400 in the winter, on top of AC being daily and TS at varied frequency. That is just one piece of that route, let alone DEL which itself is a huge market from YYZ, looking at probably close to 400 000 pax annually with AC and 9W each daily and all of the non-direct options.


YYZ-AMS-YYZ 700,000 pax in one year? LOL ...fyi in 2017, P2P traffic between YYZ-AMS round trip was 182,000 pax !!!

LHR is the most sought after (demand wise) route to/from YYZ with 483,000 pax in 2017 full year.

YYZ-DEL-YYZ was 336,000 pax in 2017.

Again high demand for DEL from YYZ does not equate to net profits as you know its a combination of yield + demand volume.

On another point, like someone else wrote earlier on, 9W does not actually need the B77Ws any more as the long haul fleet can revolve around the A333s easily whilst NB around the B737MAX family. The only thing that the A333 cannot do is fly from DEL/BOM nonstop to MEL/BOM which would anyways bleed big money for 9W if they started that service.
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:15 pm

behramjee wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:
I can’t understand why people seem to think reducing YYZ would be in any way a good idea. If anything, AMS-YYZ needs a significant upguages. Toronto is the 4th busiest long haul route out of AMS, and is one of the fastest growing routes out of Toronto, it should get close to 700 000 pax this year. Toronto- India is also a huge market, with AC flying 12x weekly non stops, and 9W operating via AMS. Anna Aero quoted earlier this year that in 2017, roughly 75 000 pax flew non direct routes to DEL from YYZ alone (not including 9W as far as I read, with it being a legal direct flight). There is a reason they cut all North America flying except for YYZ, and upguaged to the 77W from the A333, and there is a reason that KLM flies an average of nearly 600 daily seats each way for during the high season between March to November, and only drops to ~400 in the winter, on top of AC being daily and TS at varied frequency. That is just one piece of that route, let alone DEL which itself is a huge market from YYZ, looking at probably close to 400 000 pax annually with AC and 9W each daily and all of the non-direct options.


YYZ-AMS-YYZ 700,000 pax in one year? LOL ...fyi in 2017, P2P traffic between YYZ-AMS round trip was 182,000 pax !!!

LHR is the most sought after (demand wise) route to/from YYZ with 483,000 pax in 2017 full year.

YYZ-DEL-YYZ was 336,000 pax in 2017.

Again high demand for DEL from YYZ does not equate to net profits as you know its a combination of yield + demand volume.

On another point, like someone else wrote earlier on, 9W does not actually need the B77Ws any more as the long haul fleet can revolve around the A333s easily whilst NB around the B737MAX family. The only thing that the A333 cannot do is fly from DEL/BOM nonstop to MEL/BOM which would anyways bleed big money for 9W if they started that service.


I am literally citing the actual reported numbers. It’s all published data...

YYZ-LHR-YYZ was over 1 million actual pax carried last year, YYZ-AMS-YYZ was 626 000 pax last year. While summer is generally a bad representation seeing as it’s pretty damn easy to fill flights, AC was oversold over a week in advance every time I checked booking loads (actual numbers sold, internal data). Wherever you are gathering your data is not representative of actual market conditions, of course there are connections, but the proof is in the numbers.
 
factsonly
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:52 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:
binayak wrote:
BawliBooch wrote:
1. Is 9W loosing that much money on YYZ? One decent desi option to Canada! :(



1. The equipment seems to be an issue there. Can be better served by a333. A 77W seems too much. KL already flies DEL AMS so downgauging that leg won't be much of an issue.



I think the main issue is that they do not code share with KL/DL on YYZ-AMS. They need to start that asap. Also KLM/9W can probably go from three flights a day on the YYZ-AMS route to 2 (one by each airline).


Don't forget that AMS is a scissor hub for 9W, Jet Airways operates daily B77W on YYZ-AMS as this flight:
- has local traffic rights YYZ-AMS,
- feeds three 9W flights AMS-India,
- feeds two KL AMS-India flights with 9W codeshare,

- YYZ 18:30 - AMS 07:55 9W 233 B77W daily - has local traffic rights, and feeds:
- AMS 10:50 - BLR 9W235 A333 daily
- AMS 11:25 - BOM 9W231 B77W daily
- AMS 11:40 - DEL 9W233 B77W daily
- AMS 14:25 - DEL KL871 B789 daily - 9W codeshare
- AMS 14:20 - BOM KL877 B789 3x/week - 9W codeshare

So a 346 seat B77W may not be such a surprising choice, for YYZ-AMS after all.
 
binayak
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:13 am

factsonly wrote:

Don't forget that AMS is a scissor hub for 9W, Jet Airways operates daily B77W on YYZ-AMS as this flight:
- has local traffic rights YYZ-AMS,
- feeds three 9W flights AMS-India,
- feeds two KL AMS-India flights with 9W codeshare,

- YYZ 18:30 - AMS 07:55 9W 233 B77W daily - has local traffic rights, and feeds:
- AMS 10:50 - BLR 9W235 A333 daily
- AMS 11:25 - BOM 9W231 B77W daily
- AMS 11:40 - DEL 9W233 B77W daily
- AMS 14:25 - DEL KL871 B789 daily - 9W codeshare
- AMS 14:20 - BOM KL877 B789 3x/week - 9W codeshare

So a 346 seat B77W may not be such a surprising choice, for YYZ-AMS after all.


Air Canada flies non stop YYZ BOM and YYZ DEL. Jet even code shares on those two non stop flights. This further reduces the reason for jet to have YYZ AMS.
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whywhyzee
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:52 am

binayak wrote:
factsonly wrote:

Don't forget that AMS is a scissor hub for 9W, Jet Airways operates daily B77W on YYZ-AMS as this flight:
- has local traffic rights YYZ-AMS,
- feeds three 9W flights AMS-India,
- feeds two KL AMS-India flights with 9W codeshare,

- YYZ 18:30 - AMS 07:55 9W 233 B77W daily - has local traffic rights, and feeds:
- AMS 10:50 - BLR 9W235 A333 daily
- AMS 11:25 - BOM 9W231 B77W daily
- AMS 11:40 - DEL 9W233 B77W daily
- AMS 14:25 - DEL KL871 B789 daily - 9W codeshare
- AMS 14:20 - BOM KL877 B789 3x/week - 9W codeshare

So a 346 seat B77W may not be such a surprising choice, for YYZ-AMS after all.


Air Canada flies non stop YYZ BOM and YYZ DEL. Jet even code shares on those two non stop flights. This further reduces the reason for jet to have YYZ AMS.


The AC services alone don’t convert the market demand, simple as that. There is a reason why this route still exists after all other North American services were cancelled.
 
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Thu Sep 27, 2018 1:55 am

The liquidity crisis at Jet shows no signs of abating. Salaries continue to be deferred:
https://www.financialexpress.com/indust ... f/1328367/
India: World's fastest growing major economy. World's fastest growing aviation market.
 
sibibom
Posts: 199
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Thu Sep 27, 2018 3:08 am

whywhyzee wrote:
binayak wrote:
factsonly wrote:

Don't forget that AMS is a scissor hub for 9W, Jet Airways operates daily B77W on YYZ-AMS as this flight:
- has local traffic rights YYZ-AMS,
- feeds three 9W flights AMS-India,
- feeds two KL AMS-India flights with 9W codeshare,

- YYZ 18:30 - AMS 07:55 9W 233 B77W daily - has local traffic rights, and feeds:
- AMS 10:50 - BLR 9W235 A333 daily
- AMS 11:25 - BOM 9W231 B77W daily
- AMS 11:40 - DEL 9W233 B77W daily
- AMS 14:25 - DEL KL871 B789 daily - 9W codeshare
- AMS 14:20 - BOM KL877 B789 3x/week - 9W codeshare

So a 346 seat B77W may not be such a surprising choice, for YYZ-AMS after all.


Air Canada flies non stop YYZ BOM and YYZ DEL. Jet even code shares on those two non stop flights. This further reduces the reason for jet to have YYZ AMS.


The AC services alone don’t convert the market demand, simple as that. There is a reason why this route still exists after all other North American services were cancelled.


There is little presence of ME3 in the Canadian market, hence they stick to it.
 
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piedmontf284000
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:23 am

For an airline that is having $$$ issues, this probably is not the best way to celebrate the Indian Cricket team tournament victory.

https://www.ndtv.com/business/jet-airwa ... ba-1924152
 
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:42 am

Jet has defaulted on lease payments:
https://www.financialexpress.com/indust ... n/1334786/

The future looks increasingly grim for Jet unless they raise cash quickly
India: World's fastest growing major economy. World's fastest growing aviation market.
 
sibibom
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:41 am

unrave wrote:
Jet has defaulted on lease payments:
https://www.financialexpress.com/indust ... n/1334786/

The future looks increasingly grim for Jet unless they raise cash quickly


DeltaJet India is becoming increasingly likely, it doesn't seem Jet will survive in its current form beyond winter. With falling Re and rising oil prices, I wouldn't be surprised if another airline GOes :p

The slots Jet holds in Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore etc will literally be the only value for the airline and any one wanting to gain a quick foothold in India may bid, perhaps Vistara or even Qatar, besides Delta-KLM-AF!
 
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Oct 03, 2018 5:35 am

There are several complications if Delta or any other airline were to acquire Jet. Since EY already owns 26% of Jet any acquisition would involve buying out EY's share, plus additional funds for equity infusion at the same time ensuring 49% FDI cap is not breached. Too much trouble for its worth.
India: World's fastest growing major economy. World's fastest growing aviation market.
 
sibibom
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Oct 03, 2018 5:42 am

EY is looking for cash too, Delta is sitting a pile of cash. If professionally run, an airline in India can do well. Anyways we should know it in 6 months max or even sooner the way things are going
 
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:44 am

Jet Airways has defaulted on salaries - again.
https://www.outlookindia.com/website/st ... ted/317617
India: World's fastest growing major economy. World's fastest growing aviation market.
 
YouGeeElWhy
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Oct 03, 2018 11:10 am

unrave wrote:
There are several complications if Delta or any other airline were to acquire Jet. Since EY already owns 26% of Jet any acquisition would involve buying out EY's share, plus additional funds for equity infusion at the same time ensuring 49% FDI cap is not breached. Too much trouble for its worth.
How can Delta acquire Jet? I thought only 49% could be owned by foreign entities for Indian airlines. Even if DL went for 49% they would have to broker a deal with Abu Dubai. Delta getting their money tangled up in this 9W/EY mess seems like the least Delta thing Delta could do.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Oct 03, 2018 11:45 am

unrave wrote:
Jet Airways has defaulted on salaries - again.
https://www.outlookindia.com/website/st ... ted/317617

I do not understand why in India it is accepted to be late with salary. For a US based company, they go to extremes to make payday. It is grounds to shut down a company in the USA as it violates basic labor law to not pay employees timely.


Related, did Air India pay salary on time this week? The prior 5 months they were a bit late (but paid within the month).

Lightsaber
You only have the first amendment with the 2nd. If you're not going to offend someone with what you say, you don't have the 1st.
 
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RobK
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:03 pm

Who will pick up their 75 frame Max order (or was it 150 frames?) ?

Sad to see them go. The broken fried egg livery will be missed.
 
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:11 pm

RobK wrote:
Who will pick up their 75 frame Max order (or was it 150 frames?) ?

225
India: World's fastest growing major economy. World's fastest growing aviation market.
 
Gr8Circle
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:14 pm

juliuswong wrote:
Haven't been following Jet Airways for past few years, weren't they in trouble few years ago with same issue, as a result Brussels scissor hub was eliminated, A330 and B77W were leased out to many airlines and order was truancated and ntu some B737 and a 77W which is now flying with UAE Amiri Flight? Well back then KF was still around but now their actual local competitor is AI, yet they can't turn around after all these years. What happened exactly? Can't be all the LCC killing their business right? ME 3 must be rubbing their hands gleefully. And didn't they formed deep JV with DL and AF-KLM in recent years. Didn't this resulted in better financial and operational improvement??

Something is missing somewhere....



Domestic competition is not only AI....there's Indigo, Go Air and Vistara too......all formidable competitors.....
 
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readytotaxi
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:29 pm

Their next problem will be their suppliers, they know that staff have not been paid, if they think they wont be getting monies owed Jets credit rating will drop. Cash only for fuel/ground services at international destinations would be a terrible blow.
you don't get a second chance to make a first impression!
Growing older, but not up.
 
CaliguyNYC
Posts: 474
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:16 pm

I think the GOI needs to do something. It makes no sense that Indian aviation should be in such a terrible state since it is growing so fast. Cut working capital interest rates for aviation and lower fuel taxes. Let the airlines make money and then tax their income or raise passenger taxes for actual tickets sold. The issue with fuel taxes is that the airline takes the same hit if the plane is full or empty or if they are super discounting the fare or changing a premium. And before people go there, just having Indigo as a functioning airline is not a proper aviation policy for a huge country like India. India needs a vibrant aviation industry for jobs, connectivity and HEALTHY price competition/service standards/flight timing options.
 
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:24 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:
I think the GOI needs to do something. It makes no sense that Indian aviation should be in such a terrible state since it is growing so fast. Cut working capital interest rates for aviation and lower fuel taxes. Let the airlines make money and then tax their income or raise passenger taxes for actual tickets sold. The issue with fuel taxes is that the airline takes the same hit if the plane is full or empty or if they are super discounting the fare or changing a premium. And before people go there, just having Indigo as a functioning airline is not a proper aviation policy for a huge country like India. India needs a vibrant aviation industry for jobs, connectivity and HEALTHY price competition/service standards/flight timing options.

Why does aviation deserve special treatment? Relatively high interest rates is a fact of doing business in India. All industries have to live with it. And I really don't think slashing taxes on ATF alone is justified when only a tiny sliver of the population is affected by it.
India: World's fastest growing major economy. World's fastest growing aviation market.
 
Exeiowa
Posts: 34
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:04 pm

Salaries delayed, now lease payments delayed, this probably only ends one way at this point unless someone steps in to backstop them. There is no way they can take on the additional debt of those 225 additional aircraft in an aggressive competition market that Indian aviation seems to be in. I give it 6 months.
 
binayak
Posts: 667
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:22 pm

unrave wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
I think the GOI needs to do something. It makes no sense that Indian aviation should be in such a terrible state since it is growing so fast. Cut working capital interest rates for aviation and lower fuel taxes. Let the airlines make money and then tax their income or raise passenger taxes for actual tickets sold. The issue with fuel taxes is that the airline takes the same hit if the plane is full or empty or if they are super discounting the fare or changing a premium. And before people go there, just having Indigo as a functioning airline is not a proper aviation policy for a huge country like India. India needs a vibrant aviation industry for jobs, connectivity and HEALTHY price competition/service standards/flight timing options.

Why does aviation deserve special treatment? Relatively high interest rates is a fact of doing business in India. All industries have to live with it. And I really don't think slashing taxes on ATF alone is justified when only a tiny sliver of the population is affected by it.

Because "aviation " is that industry that will take the country economically much ahead than many other things.
This isn't particularly about jet but something general and something which the govt should look into. Had aviation catering to only minute percent of population been a reason for not being concerned about the problems faced by airlines, then we should not even have anyone called aviation minister.
The best preparation for tomorrow is doing your best today
 
747megatop
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:53 pm

Kikko19 wrote:
Any Indian airline making money?

I would rephrase the question as "Is any Indian airline being allowed to make money by AI?"
 
zionite
Posts: 62
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2016 6:18 pm

Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Oct 03, 2018 5:16 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:
I think the GOI needs to do something. It makes no sense that Indian aviation should be in such a terrible state since it is growing so fast. Cut working capital interest rates for aviation and lower fuel taxes. Let the airlines make money and then tax their income or raise passenger taxes for actual tickets sold. The issue with fuel taxes is that the airline takes the same hit if the plane is full or empty or if they are super discounting the fare or changing a premium. And before people go there, just having Indigo as a functioning airline is not a proper aviation policy for a huge country like India. India needs a vibrant aviation industry for jobs, connectivity and HEALTHY price competition/service standards/flight timing options.

Interest rates are more or less same for everyone doing business in India. No need for any special treatment for the industry. There are enough protections for them. Its quite difficult for other businesses also due to Chinese competition - and with rising labour cost in China, the main advantages they have are very low taxation and cheap source of funds.

Its up to the airlines operating in India to form a cartel and charge tickets. There's a competition between airlines to announce a "sale" every week and offer 10% discount and everyone slashes their fares to match each others fares.

Its much more important to connect Tier 2 and Tier 3 airports to come online and have domestic connectivity. A subsidy like UDAN scheme is good. If anything that GoI can help, help 9W sell off their WB and buy more ATR and give them loans to fly domestic routes only.

For international flights, it would be better to use subsidy from Middle East instead of subsidy from India - many on A.net claim ME3 are subsidized and ME3 are unofficial national carrier of India.
 
zionite
Posts: 62
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2016 6:18 pm

Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Wed Oct 03, 2018 5:31 pm

lightsaber wrote:
unrave wrote:
Jet Airways has defaulted on salaries - again.
https://www.outlookindia.com/website/st ... ted/317617

I do not understand why in India it is accepted to be late with salary. For a US based company, they go to extremes to make payday. It is grounds to shut down a company in the USA as it violates basic labor law to not pay employees timely.


Related, did Air India pay salary on time this week? The prior 5 months they were a bit late (but paid within the month).

Lightsaber

Its quite normal for smaller businesses to pay salary between 3rd to 10th day of next month with delay of couple of days acceptable. This is usually taken for granted and also informed to the employee at time of joining.

For my business having close around 200 employees, this is the time taken to manually calculate attendance of each employee, adjust their overtimes against their absence, calculate productivity incentives, deduct loan installments for loans taken from the company (unsecured & interest free) etc. My observation is that employees working in a smaller business are much more cooperative than employees working in corporate industry.
 
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unrave
Posts: 1334
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:11 am

Things at Jet are unravelling fast. Late evening yesterday ICRA downgraded Jet's borrowings - for the third time this year - to B. Essentially means Jet's debt instruments are junk and barely above default. Remember they have to repay Rs. 3100 crore this year, on top of funding their substantial losses (Rs. 14 crore a day in the last quarter).
https://www.icra.in/Rationale/ShowRatio ... /?Id=73861

The time is ripe to redeem your JetPrivilege Miles before it becomes too late.
India: World's fastest growing major economy. World's fastest growing aviation market.
 
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:52 am

Jet assures pilots of clearing their salary dues by October 9. Which means September salaries will be delayed further
India: World's fastest growing major economy. World's fastest growing aviation market.
 
CaliguyNYC
Posts: 474
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:27 pm

Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:13 am

zionite wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
I think the GOI needs to do something. It makes no sense that Indian aviation should be in such a terrible state since it is growing so fast. Cut working capital interest rates for aviation and lower fuel taxes. Let the airlines make money and then tax their income or raise passenger taxes for actual tickets sold. The issue with fuel taxes is that the airline takes the same hit if the plane is full or empty or if they are super discounting the fare or changing a premium. And before people go there, just having Indigo as a functioning airline is not a proper aviation policy for a huge country like India. India needs a vibrant aviation industry for jobs, connectivity and HEALTHY price competition/service standards/flight timing options.

Interest rates are more or less same for everyone doing business in India. No need for any special treatment for the industry. There are enough protections for them. Its quite difficult for other businesses also due to Chinese competition - and with rising labour cost in China, the main advantages they have are very low taxation and cheap source of funds.

Its up to the airlines operating in India to form a cartel and charge tickets. There's a competition between airlines to announce a "sale" every week and offer 10% discount and everyone slashes their fares to match each others fares.

Its much more important to connect Tier 2 and Tier 3 airports to come online and have domestic connectivity. A subsidy like UDAN scheme is good. If anything that GoI can help, help 9W sell off their WB and buy more ATR and give them loans to fly domestic routes only.

For international flights, it would be better to use subsidy from Middle East instead of subsidy from India - many on A.net claim ME3 are subsidized and ME3 are unofficial national carrier of India.


I’m the opposite on this. I feel India should protect international competition to all fares to rise there to subsidize domestic flying. Having cheap international flights and high domestic does not help india too much (especially since there is more outbound tourism then inbound). Net net aviation in india is screwed up and it is not because of mismanagement alone. The GOI has contributed a huge amount as have these sale fares. Maybe the GOI brings back min fares no lower than 10% of cost (taking some average cost)?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Sat Oct 06, 2018 5:20 pm

zionite wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
unrave wrote:
Jet Airways has defaulted on salaries - again.
https://www.outlookindia.com/website/st ... ted/317617

I do not understand why in India it is accepted to be late with salary. For a US based company, they go to extremes to make payday. It is grounds to shut down a company in the USA as it violates basic labor law to not pay employees timely.


Related, did Air India pay salary on time this week? The prior 5 months they were a bit late (but paid within the month).

Lightsaber

Its quite normal for smaller businesses to pay salary between 3rd to 10th day of next month with delay of couple of days acceptable. This is usually taken for granted and also informed to the employee at time of joining.

For my business having close around 200 employees, this is the time taken to manually calculate attendance of each employee, adjust their overtimes against their absence, calculate productivity incentives, deduct loan installments for loans taken from the company (unsecured & interest free) etc. My observation is that employees working in a smaller business are much more cooperative than employees working in corporate industry.

My salary is always paid on time. Overtime is delayed two weeks later than salary which is paid two weeks after the work hour reporting period ends. So there is no need for delays.

Computers made this easy in the 1980s. For large companies, it was earlier. Login to the home page and click the timecard box... Input time. Every week you boss must Audit on Wednesday to ensure you are putting in time.

There is no reason to be late today. It is only a sign of financial distress. Airlines work on global process, there is just no excuse for not having a modern timecard system. Heck RFID scanners on tablets are cheap. They are a great way to do timecards. They (or a computer with a badge swiper) have been standard at exits for 20 years. I've seen 40 people do their daily time in 5 minutes off one reader! I cannot believe any airline is that far behind manufacturing.

Time to treat employees right, which is pay salary punctual. It is such a red flag for horrid cash flow management...

Set a day and pay! (E.g., by 5th of month, or two weeks after filling out a time card on the Friday..., have Holiday expectations, e.g., final paycheck last Friday of the year or Thursday if the Friday is 12/31).

I've never be paid late in a long career. I've had small businesses short me in my youth, but never late.

Lightsaber
You only have the first amendment with the 2nd. If you're not going to offend someone with what you say, you don't have the 1st.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Sat Oct 06, 2018 5:22 pm

unrave wrote:
Things at Jet are unravelling fast. Late evening yesterday ICRA downgraded Jet's borrowings - for the third time this year - to B. Essentially means Jet's debt instruments are junk and barely above default. Remember they have to repay Rs. 3100 crore this year, on top of funding their substantial losses (Rs. 14 crore a day in the last quarter).
https://www.icra.in/Rationale/ShowRatio ... /?Id=73861

The time is ripe to redeem your JetPrivilege Miles before it becomes too late.

Late salaries are a sign of the endgame. I hope Jet sells enough to survive. This isn't AI that gets billions in subsidies, loan forgiveness, or grant whenever the kitty runs dry.

Lightsaber
You only have the first amendment with the 2nd. If you're not going to offend someone with what you say, you don't have the 1st.
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