The JAX population in the MSA is now 1,631,000 but there is not any nonstop service to LAX or SFO. Ten years ago Delta had a nonstop flight departing LA at 11pm and returning at 7:30AM. How can a city this size not have direct service to LA and perhaps SF ? Of course Delta has 12 to 13 flights daily to ATL and its megahub. The airport authority estimates there are 150 to 200 passengers a day flying to LA from JAX, yet no direct flight.
Nonstop service to the west extends only as far as Denver via WN, Frontier and UAL, Frontier will begin nonstop service to Las Vegas soon. Obviously, Delta directs everything thru ATL, American thru DFW , WN thru HOU or Denver and UAL thru Denver. Guess the yield must be too low to devote one A319 or 737 for LAX. Very annoying to those of us who travel frequently to the LA area and would be happy to pay a premium for nonstop service.

I wouldn't be surprised to see an ULCC, such as Frontier pick up the service one day. They will start LAS pretty soon.

FF630 wrote:

The JAX population in the MSA is now 1,631,000 but there is not any nonstop service to LAX or SFO. Ten years ago Delta had a nonstop flight departing LA at 11pm and returning at 7:30AM. How can a city this size not have direct service to LA and perhaps SF ? Of course Delta has 12 to 13 flights daily to ATL and its megahub. The airport authority estimates there are 150 to 200 passengers a day flying to LA from JAX, yet no direct flight.
Nonstop service to the west extends only as far as Denver via WN, Frontier and UAL, Frontier will begin nonstop service to Las Vegas soon. Obviously, Delta directs everything thru ATL, American thru DFW , WN thru HOU or Denver and UAL thru Denver. Guess the yield must be too low to devote one A319 or 737 for LAX. Very annoying to those of us who travel frequently to the LA area and would be happy to pay a premium for nonstop service.

The business in J'ville is largely regional or state-oriented. I'm not sure a nonstop to the west coast is needed by the local business community. Now as far as casual O&D tourist types going from the area to LA or the Bay Area, maybe Frontier will give it a shot one of these days? I can't see a legacy or Alaska ever trying.

150-200 PAX per day, split between how many carriers? Even if a non-stop was offered, it would still have to compete on price, and the hub carriers would match or beat it. Maybe DL will try it some day with the A220, but the numbers just aren't there right now.

Cubsrule wrote:

What is it, a 200 PDEW market? A single nonstop will capture far less than half of that. That’s the issue.

And JAX isn't far from ATL. DL could capture most of the market with frequencies to ATL plus connections.

Would JAX get it wish with a red-eyes UA SFO-JAX? Since UA LAX-JAX doesn't seem to stand a chance.
How about WN OAK-JAX and/or ONT-JAX?

Because...

FF630 wrote:

Delta has 12 to 13 flights daily to ATL

From ATL you can go almost anywhere. Like others have said, there is not enough traffic between JAX and the west coast to justify a nonstop.

Delta flew JAX-LAX ~10 years ago on the 737-800. It was a non-rev dream to get between the coasts. I think we'll see that route return eventually.

flyingclrs727 wrote:

Cubsrule wrote:

What is it, a 200 PDEW market? A single nonstop will capture far less than half of that. That’s the issue.

And JAX isn't far from ATL. DL could capture most of the market with frequencies to ATL plus connections.

Same thing I was thinking ....today 8/6 DL flies the route 14x/day and WN 3x/day..just shy of an hour actual flight time

Forgive my lack of understanding of how PDEW data is gathered, but does it factor in "bleed" to surrounding airports? I'm assuming there's a lot of it to MCO from JAX.

Also... PDEW data is very tricky and complicated. 150-200 could theoretically easily sustain a nonstop, but it could also go belly up quickly. It's all about current routings and fares that those 150-200 are already using. And could you get more than 150-200 by offering connections via LA/SFO

Great examples are F9 and UA out of DEN: tons of recent route additions like PWM and RIC (and ALB, etc.) had PDEW bases of ~50-60. Now you've got 2x Daily on RIC and F9's flights in and out of PWM are packed full - would not be surprised to see UA pick this one up going forward. It's all about moving total traffic demand out of the "outstation" airport around and shifting capacity between routes to work.

Tradewinds71 wrote:

Forgive my lack of understanding of how PDEW data is gathered, but does it factor in "bleed" to surrounding airports? I'm assuming there's a lot of it to MCO from JAX.

They are 150 miles apart and JAX is well served. There's probably barely any.

If we're talking Delta, their service at JAX is mainline to ATL, RJs to NYC, and very little capacity to any other hub. I think even DTW and MSP get the bare minimum to JAX. The total flight time from JAX-ATL is 45-50 minutes take off to touch down. From ATL they have a plethora of flights to the west coast, and they really have their pick at flight times considering 12-13x flights to ATL which is basically like a shuttle flight and a multitude of departures to LAX, SAN, SFO, and SEA with additional flights to the secondaries like SNA for LA and SJC and OAK for SF (yes, DL is currently running ATL-OAK). What's the need for a nonstop? Everyone is served adequately.

FA9295 wrote:

I wouldn't be surprised to see an ULCC, such as Frontier pick up the service one day. They will start LAS pretty soon.

JAX-LAS will be a leisure market. Leisure travelers may tolerate low frequency. LAX business travelers wouldn't be well served by a 1x daily, 3x weekly Frontier flight. They'll connect in ATL, IAH or DFW. Frontier wouldn't get a 1/3 of the traffic.

Facilities are so constrained at LAX and even SFO. I could maybe see PHX on F9 or WN coming at some point and maybe WN adding LAS to match F9.

How do numbers between PBI and JAX compare? AA tried LAX-PBI for awhile but that didn't work. Even TPA struggles to hold onto many west coast non-stops.

KICT wrote:

Delta flew JAX-LAX ~10 years ago on the 737-800. It was a non-rev dream to get between the coasts. I think we'll see that route return eventually.

By "non-rev dream" are you saying the flight was always empty?

MIflyer12 wrote:

FA9295 wrote:

I wouldn't be surprised to see an ULCC, such as Frontier pick up the service one day. They will start LAS pretty soon.

JAX-LAS will be a leisure market. Leisure travelers may tolerate low frequency. LAX business travelers wouldn't be well served by a 1x daily, 3x weekly Frontier flight. They'll connect in ATL, IAH or DFW. Frontier wouldn't get a 1/3 of the traffic.

I'm pretty sure that JAX-LAS is going to be daily.

FA9295 wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

FA9295 wrote:

I wouldn't be surprised to see an ULCC, such as Frontier pick up the service one day. They will start LAS pretty soon.

JAX-LAS will be a leisure market. Leisure travelers may tolerate low frequency. LAX business travelers wouldn't be well served by a 1x daily, 3x weekly Frontier flight. They'll connect in ATL, IAH or DFW. Frontier wouldn't get a 1/3 of the traffic.

I'm pretty sure that JAX-LAS is going to be daily.

Yes, JAX-LAS will be daily on an A320

JAX is the XNA of FL, for all the XNA Fanboy anetters who complain about "why not more service, we're a growing, MSA". JAX is similarly too close to another airport that overshadows.... in this case it's ATL, the world's busiest and can take you anywhere you need to go with an extra 45 minute flight to JAX. the population statistics of Jacksonville itself are really irrelevant. It's well served already.

LovePrunesAnet wrote:

JAX is similarly too close to another airport that overshadows.... in this case it's ATL, the world's busiest and can take you anywhere you need to go with an extra 45 minute flight to JAX. the population statistics of Jacksonville itself are really irrelevant. It's well served already.

You could say the same thing about IND, given how close it is ORD, and how similar in size Jacksonville and Chicago are.

MAH4546 wrote:

Tradewinds71 wrote:

Forgive my lack of understanding of how PDEW data is gathered, but does it factor in "bleed" to surrounding airports? I'm assuming there's a lot of it to MCO from JAX.

They are 150 miles apart and JAX is well served. There's probably barely any.

Jacksonville is the largest US city in terms of land and JAX is almost on the GA state line 15 miles north of downtown. A lot of the resort and more affluent areas are south, for example St. Augustine is 50 miles from JAX and only 120 miles from MCO. There are four airlines flying 10 nonstops per day MCO-LAX with fares as low as $112 (AA, B6, DL, UA).

abauds201 wrote:

KICT wrote:

Delta flew JAX-LAX ~10 years ago on the 737-800. It was a non-rev dream to get between the coasts. I think we'll see that route return eventually.

By "non-rev dream" are you saying the flight was always empty?

Basically yes.

KICT wrote:

abauds201 wrote:

KICT wrote:

Delta flew JAX-LAX ~10 years ago on the 737-800. It was a non-rev dream to get between the coasts. I think we'll see that route return eventually.

By "non-rev dream" are you saying the flight was always empty?

Basically yes.

In there lies the reason it was gone!

Midwestindy wrote:

LovePrunesAnet wrote:

JAX is similarly too close to another airport that overshadows.... in this case it's ATL, the world's busiest and can take you anywhere you need to go with an extra 45 minute flight to JAX. the population statistics of Jacksonville itself are really irrelevant. It's well served already.

You could say the same thing about IND, given how close it is ORD, and how similar in size Jacksonville and Chicago are.

but Indy has enough individual quality of life things drawing it, and an EXTREMELY well run airport, such that it gets a lot of attention from various airlines with good service being added, unlike JAX, XNA, which just stay kind of stagnant despite population numbers. So yeah, similar geography, but IND has much more going for it than JAX as an airport, in my opinion. I don't live near either one, I'm just always amused at people throwing around census data and arguments like "they can't ignore us, we're growing" kind of nonsense.

It's like PHX. Tons of people, but they're not all buying tickets to get on airplanes. Cheap golf and 4pm early bird specials and waiting for the inevitable. But I digress.

xdlx wrote:

KICT wrote:

abauds201 wrote:

By "non-rev dream" are you saying the flight was always empty?

Basically yes.

In there lies the reason it was gone!

Haha reminds me of DL’s non rev express guaranteed way to get home from europe LHR-PHL before it finally got axed

Could Delta fly a CS100 on JAX-LAX would good flying times, i.e. 8 am departure from LAX 5:30 departure from JAX? Yeah, sure and it fill the plane. Possible the CS300 could be an eventual upgauge. But did Delta buy the CSeries to fly LAX-JAX? No. I will say it is far and away more likely to see a return of JAX-West Coast than say someone starting RSW-West Coast. Slightly off topic here, Delta may consider RSW-SLC with the CSeries. Southwest Florida doesn't have a nonstop west of Dallas. Again may doesn't mean yes it will happen. There have been times Delta has flown the domestic 767s on MSP-RSW. But as almost anything with Florida it seems, any city wanting a nonstop to a non-hub or west of the Mississippi that isn't a hub, look for Delta.

DeSpringbokke wrote:

Southwest Florida doesn't have a nonstop west of Dallas.

Aren't there 3 airlines that fly RSW-DEN?

Granted....baffles me !

727LOVER wrote:

DeSpringbokke wrote:

Southwest Florida doesn't have a nonstop west of Dallas.

Aren't there 3 airlines that fly RSW-DEN?

Granted....baffles me !

United and Southwest doesn't fly RSW-DEN nonstop year-round. That may change in the future. Frontier, completely forgot and ignored them. It took TPA a while to gain a few nonstops to LAX/SFO. That should be the indication of how RSW-West Coast should go. Hell, it wasn't so long ago my second home town airport SRQ had ATL, yes ATL, as its furthest west destination. Then UA added ORD and now AA is doing seasonal ORD/DFW. I hope both become year round as UA is flying ORD-SRQ year round now, alternating between UAX and mainline.

Here we go again.

Simply put demand. The demand just isnt there. If it was there would be a non stop. Yes jax has a lot of people but most of it is really spread out and is basically in thr middle of nowhere.

I have nothing against jax, i worked tdy several occasions up there in my FL days. Most pax were headed north not west

DeSpringbokke wrote:

727LOVER wrote:

DeSpringbokke wrote:

Southwest Florida doesn't have a nonstop west of Dallas.

Aren't there 3 airlines that fly RSW-DEN?

Granted....baffles me !

United and Southwest doesn't fly RSW-DEN nonstop year-round. That may change in the future. Frontier, completely forgot and ignored them. It took TPA a while to gain a few nonstops to LAX/SFO. That should be the indication of how RSW-West Coast should go. Hell, it wasn't so long ago my second home town airport SRQ had ATL, yes ATL, as its furthest west destination. Then UA added ORD and now AA is doing seasonal ORD/DFW. I hope both become year round as UA is flying ORD-SRQ year round now, alternating between UAX and mainline.

TPA-LAX has been served continuously for decades.

Midwestindy wrote:

LovePrunesAnet wrote:

JAX is similarly too close to another airport that overshadows.... in this case it's ATL, the world's busiest and can take you anywhere you need to go with an extra 45 minute flight to JAX. the population statistics of Jacksonville itself are really irrelevant. It's well served already.

You could say the same thing about IND, given how close it is ORD, and how similar in size Jacksonville and Chicago are.

I don't think you can compare the two. IND has coast to coast service on multiple airlines, so unless you reallllly want a nonstop international flight, there is not much of a need to drive 3 hours+ and deal with the Chicago traffic and mess of ORD when IND is one of the easiest and nicest airports to fly in/out of. Especially for those who live south of Indy, you'll find them drive to CVG before they even consider flying out of ORD.

Cubsrule wrote:

What is it, a 200 PDEW market? A single nonstop will capture far less than half of that. That’s the issue.

I believe the A220-100 or -300 could profitably serve the market. But not today's more expensive per flight 150+ seat planes.

Direct flights have a history of stimulating a market. However, due to Market presence, I doubt anyone besides DL could make this work. So there is zero pressure to start the service.

Lightsaber

FLIHGH wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

LovePrunesAnet wrote:

JAX is similarly too close to another airport that overshadows.... in this case it's ATL, the world's busiest and can take you anywhere you need to go with an extra 45 minute flight to JAX. the population statistics of Jacksonville itself are really irrelevant. It's well served already.

You could say the same thing about IND, given how close it is ORD, and how similar in size Jacksonville and Chicago are.

I don't think you can compare the two. IND has coast to coast service on multiple airlines, so unless you reallllly want a nonstop international flight, there is not much of a need to drive 3 hours+ and deal with the Chicago traffic and mess of ORD when IND is one of the easiest and nicest airports to fly in/out of. Especially for those who live south of Indy, you'll find them drive to CVG before they even consider flying out of ORD.

The point was that you can take a .5-1 hour flight from both cities and you have flights to almost anywhere you need to go, and both cities are equal in size so in theory they should both have similar levels of air service

FF630 wrote:

The JAX population in the MSA is now 1,631,000 but there is not any nonstop service to LAX or SFO. Ten years ago Delta had a nonstop flight departing LA at 11pm and returning at 7:30AM. How can a city this size not have direct service to LA and perhaps SF ? Of course Delta has 12 to 13 flights daily to ATL and its megahub. The airport authority estimates there are 150 to 200 passengers a day flying to LA from JAX, yet no direct flight.
Nonstop service to the west extends only as far as Denver via WN, Frontier and UAL, Frontier will begin nonstop service to Las Vegas soon. Obviously, Delta directs everything thru ATL, American thru DFW , WN thru HOU or Denver and UAL thru Denver. Guess the yield must be too low to devote one A319 or 737 for LAX. Very annoying to those of us who travel frequently to the LA area and would be happy to pay a premium for nonstop service.

A lot of the JAX-West Coast traffic is getting routed through BNA and HOU. The lack of demand on both ends likely keep JAX from seeing any n/s flights to the west.

Part of the issue might be that unlike some of the mega airports in Florida and despite the population growth in the Jax area, pax numbers in JAX in recent years have been stagnant or falling. Only in literally the past few months have pax numbers started moving up in significant percentages. If this trend continues perhaps it will bring with it increased service from non-ULCCs (which have been the ones making recent moves in JAX; F9 has just added a bunch of destinations and there are rumors that G4 might base some aircraft in JAX after they get their fleet issues sorted out).

Any market to the west coast will be mopped up by DL via ATL, United via IAH and American Via Charlotte. Why bother sending a direct route when it will be less profitable than filling up a connection flight to many other high yielding flights?