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EarlyLateORD
Topic Author
Posts: 127
Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:34 pm

DCA to the world

Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:47 pm

I have a few questions regarding DCA and its status as an AA Hub

DCA currently doesn't have CBP services and any intl carriers that serve it pre clear their customers. DCA also has well known range limits.

Up until recently DL operated a 757 DCA-ATL-BSB(Brasilia) and return, offering a Capitol to Capitol service.

With the 757 fleet and possible future A321LR purchases, could AA offer some degree of intl service from DCA by doing DCA-(Bangor?-Gas n Go) LHR/AMS/DUB? On the return clear customs in Bangor or a similar uncongested airport?

I know that AA's model is to drive all traffic through PHL/JFK, but this could be a successful option especially with Intl narrow body aircraft that avoids the congested nearby hubs.

Adam
 
sagechan
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Re: DCA to the world

Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:52 pm

AA builds 99% of its flights to touch a hub. They already sp what you say via flights to there international gateway hubs in PHL/MIA/DFW/LAX, with JFK/ORD/CLT as options as well. DCA can reach any city AA flies to in 1 connection
717, 733, 734, 738, 739, 744, 752, 763, 772, 77W, 789, A319, A320, A321, A332, A333, A359, MD88, CRJ, CR7, CR9, DH1, DH2, DH3, S340, ER4, E170, E175, E190/CO, NW, US, AC, NH, AA, UA, DL, WN, WS, SK, VY, LA, QF, AR, AV, MH, KA, AS
 
masseybrown
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Re: DCA to the world

Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:58 pm

I used AA at DCA the other day and it's gratifying finally to see visible progress on the north extension of C. I think AA will rethink DCA's role looking to the time when that work is done. Gate 35X is always over crowded and a huge bottleneck. I don't know how much more traffic they can comfortably run through the place in the meantime. Of course, comfort isn't a priority any more.
 
EarlyLateORD
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Re: DCA to the world

Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:05 pm

sagechan wrote:
AA builds 99% of its flights to touch a hub. They already sp what you say via flights to there international gateway hubs in PHL/MIA/DFW/LAX, with JFK/ORD/CLT as options as well. DCA can reach any city AA flies to in 1 connection


I completely understand your argument. However DCA is essentially a hub in amongst itself (albeit with a variety of limiting rules) and has a very loyal following. I think there is an argument to be made for one or two (Gas n Go) nonstops to Europe.

Adam
 
a340crew
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Re: DCA to the world

Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:06 pm

Why, if you really want a non stop that bad you go 45 minutes south to Dulles, where you can get almost anywhere you need to go.

Otherwise if you want to fly out of DCA, AA/UA/DL (and AC) offer multiple one stop connections to get you worldwide.
 
ScottB
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Re: DCA to the world

Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:11 pm

EarlyLateORD wrote:
With the 757 fleet and possible future A321LR purchases, could AA offer some degree of intl service from DCA by doing DCA-(Bangor?-Gas n Go) LHR/AMS/DUB? On the return clear customs in Bangor or a similar uncongested airport?


It's possible technically, but I doubt it would be really all that competitive with the non-stops from IAD. The extra stop in, say, BGR would add an hour eastbound and probably close to two westbound; CBP isn't going to staff up to process all 150-175 passengers in 15 minutes. Plus there would be the time needed to offload and reload all the bags & passengers. They can already offer connections at PHL for folks who don't want to trek out to IAD.
 
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chunhimlai
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Re: DCA to the world

Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:45 pm

DCA-PEK , DCA-HND , DCA-LHR , DCA-BRU , DCA-CDG , DCA-BER , anything else?

In order to archive that DCA needs massive expansion
Runway 15/33 expand northwestward and pass through the Pentagon and Arlington
Runway 1/19 and 4/22 expand northward to cross Potomac River
The new ATC tower will be built on the top of Jefferson Memorial
New multi store car park will be built under the Potomac Park and the Lincoln Memorial will be modified to be the entrance
 
MIflyer12
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Re: DCA to the world

Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:15 pm

EarlyLateORD wrote:

With the 757 fleet and possible future A321LR purchases, could AA offer some degree of intl service from DCA by doing DCA-(Bangor?-Gas n Go) LHR/AMS/DUB? On the return clear customs in Bangor or a similar uncongested airport?


I have used Bangor Airport. I've got nothing against Bangor. But if you have to stop and get off the plane to clear Customs why wouldn't anybody use a real airport with more connecting destinations and more frequencies? (Or just fly from IAD?)
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: DCA to the world

Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:33 pm

AA in DC runs into the same problem that US used to have at LGA...they dont have the long haul/international operation at IAD to go hand and hand with the restricted, close in airport.

United in DC has the opposite problem.

Or maybe it isnt a problem at all...maybe they both print money doing what they are doing.

Given the growth of the area, looking to the future...Advantage United with a hub at a large, empty airport.
 
e38
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Joined: Sun May 04, 2008 10:09 pm

Re: DCA to the world

Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:36 pm

this type of service already exists:

Delta’s flights 150/151 operate daily service Washington D.C. - Atlanta - Lima, Peru and v.v. using Airbus A-321 DCA - ATL and Boeing 767-400 ATL - LIM.

e38
 
blockski
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Re: DCA to the world

Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:58 pm

Why would AA want to do this?

Plus, AA already has transatlantic joint venture partners who offer direct flights from the DC area via both IAD and BWI.
 
EarlyLateORD
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Re: DCA to the world

Tue Aug 07, 2018 6:21 pm

The thought came from BA's LCY-JFK service. I understand the advantage there is the location of LCY as well as the pre clearance arrival.

Adam
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: DCA to the world

Tue Aug 07, 2018 6:25 pm

The stop in BGR would be extremely expensive..stop and going again will use a massive amount of fuel and crew time.
For connecting passengers, it becomes a 2 stop, who would take that?
I am not sure if a tech stop in BGR would be considered within the perimeter rule, it might or might not..probably no one would object because it is such a bad idea
 
ScottB
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Re: DCA to the world

Tue Aug 07, 2018 6:40 pm

EarlyLateORD wrote:
The thought came from BA's LCY-JFK service. I understand the advantage there is the location of LCY as well as the pre clearance arrival.


Except that...

* LCY-JFK can operate non-stop in one direction.
* It's very tightly targeted at a specific industry, finance, which is willing to pay for business class tickets and which is large at both ends (LON & NYC).
* It started with two daily round-trips and was later pared to one. And it doesn't seem to have operated since August 3, nor does it seem to be bookable at all. Has this route been quietly cancelled?
 
neutronstar73
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Re: DCA to the world

Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:47 am

jfklganyc wrote:
AA in DC runs into the same problem that US used to have at LGA...they dont have the long haul/international operation at IAD to go hand and hand with the restricted, close in airport.

United in DC has the opposite problem.

Or maybe it isnt a problem at all...maybe they both print money doing what they are doing.

Given the growth of the area, looking to the future...Advantage United with a hub at a large, empty airport.


I agree. I think United has a huge advantage going forward in the DC area, especially when the Metro is completed and will link Dulles to DC proper. They have a huge airport that can handle anything, and, given that people have avoided Dulles because it required a drive into the city, that excuse goes away when the Metro Silver Line expansion is complete. I certainly preferred Dulles over DCA, due to the fact I could leave DC and get home nonstop.
 
RJNUT
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Re: DCA to the world

Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:55 pm

My cousin lives in old town Alexandria and will ALWAYS fly from DCA, even to go abroad involving a connection, rather than trek to IAD. She has , however, tried BWI a few times, though.
 
ScottB
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Re: DCA to the world

Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:27 pm

neutronstar73 wrote:
I think United has a huge advantage going forward in the DC area, especially when the Metro is completed and will link Dulles to DC proper. They have a huge airport that can handle anything, and, given that people have avoided Dulles because it required a drive into the city, that excuse goes away when the Metro Silver Line expansion is complete.


Again, the Silver Line will change little because it's designed to get commuters around, not to get passengers from the District to IAD. One CAN travel from the city to Dulles, but the ride will be roughly an hour with just under 20 stops from Metro Center, and the train will stop a quarter mile from the terminal. The Silver Line to Dulles will be slower than the preexisting bus in all but the worst traffic conditions. An hour-long train ride each way isn't going to attract high-value customers to Washington Mirabel.
 
iadadd
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Re: DCA to the world

Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:24 pm

RJNUT wrote:
My cousin lives in old town Alexandria and will ALWAYS fly from DCA, even to go abroad involving a connection, rather than trek to IAD. She has , however, tried BWI a few times, though.



Dulles is closer to Alexandria than BWI. So unless she's chasing the cheaper fare, the distance to BWI from Alexandria likely take an 1 hour, more of a 'trek". Plus, DCA-xxx-International tend to be way more expensive than IAD-International
 
blockski
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Re: DCA to the world

Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:10 pm

ScottB wrote:
neutronstar73 wrote:
I think United has a huge advantage going forward in the DC area, especially when the Metro is completed and will link Dulles to DC proper. They have a huge airport that can handle anything, and, given that people have avoided Dulles because it required a drive into the city, that excuse goes away when the Metro Silver Line expansion is complete.


Again, the Silver Line will change little because it's designed to get commuters around, not to get passengers from the District to IAD. One CAN travel from the city to Dulles, but the ride will be roughly an hour with just under 20 stops from Metro Center, and the train will stop a quarter mile from the terminal. The Silver Line to Dulles will be slower than the preexisting bus in all but the worst traffic conditions. An hour-long train ride each way isn't going to attract high-value customers to Washington Mirabel.


The Silver Line will not be slower than the 5A bus. The EIS shows it will be substantially faster, and it will have a much larger catchment area because it serves more stops. It's a huge improvement over the existing bus options.

That also misses the most important element of any transit service - frequency. Silver Line trains will be far more frequent and run for a much longer span of service than the existing 5A buses, which only come every 30 minutes at best on weekdays and just once an hour on weekends.

Are high-value customers going to ride the Metro to Dulles? No. But that's not the point.
 
FF630
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Re: DCA to the world

Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:19 pm

DCA is already constrained with domestic flights. IAD or BWI can handle both domestic and international. Granted IAD needs to improve their facilities since DC is our nation's capital, the airport should be the number 1 international facility in the world. Trump can start his infastrcture progam at IAD and make it a world class facility.
 
ScottB
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Re: DCA to the world

Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:23 pm

blockski wrote:
The Silver Line will not be slower than the 5A bus. The EIS shows it will be substantially faster, and it will have a much larger catchment area because it serves more stops. It's a huge improvement over the existing bus options.


It absolutely will be slower. Just to compare apples-to-apples, the 5A is scheduled to take anywhere from 42 minutes (late night inbound) to 71 minutes (rush hour outbound) from L'Enfant Plaza to Dulles -- and the bus stops at the terminal. Most trips take 50 to 55 minutes, outside of rush hour. Right now, the Silver Line from L'Enfant Plaza to Wiehle-Reston East takes 46 minutes -- and Dulles will be yet another 4 stations further, so tack on another 10-15 minutes, plus the 5-minute walk to & from the terminal. Outside of rush hour (worst traffic conditions) the Silver Line will be slower and the schlep to the terminal will be inconvenient.

Take anything you read in an EIS with a grain of salt because there's an agenda involved with getting the project approved.

It might draw some passengers from the Tysons area who can walk to a station, but the parking along the Silver Line is set up to serve commuters, not air travelers taking multi-day trips from IAD. And people along the Silver Line route were probably already using Dulles because it is closer. By the time you get as far in as Falls Church total travel time is probably going to tip in favor of DCA.

blockski wrote:
That also misses the most important element of any transit service - frequency. Silver Line trains will be far more frequent and run for a much longer span of service than the existing 5A buses, which only come every 30 minutes at best on weekdays and just once an hour on weekends.


More frequency on the 5A wouldn't require $7 billion. And no, the span of service for the trains on most weekdays is not longer than for the 5A; the first bus to IAD leaves at 0450 and the last bus from IAD departs at 2335; compare that to the rail operating hours of 0500 to 2330.
 
TangoandCash
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Re: DCA to the world

Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:51 pm

masseybrown wrote:
Gate 35X is always over crowded and a huge bottleneck. I don't know how much more traffic they can comfortably run through the place in the meantime. Of course, comfort isn't a priority any more.



This. All of DCA is an overrun, overcrowded madhouse. DCA was a very pleasant airport until AA decided to use it as a hub, which is the farthest from what it's capable of handling and designed for. Now it's standing room only. Of course, comfort isn't a priority any more.
 
blockski
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Re: DCA to the world

Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:52 pm

ScottB wrote:
blockski wrote:
The Silver Line will not be slower than the 5A bus. The EIS shows it will be substantially faster, and it will have a much larger catchment area because it serves more stops. It's a huge improvement over the existing bus options.


It absolutely will be slower. Just to compare apples-to-apples, the 5A is scheduled to take anywhere from 42 minutes (late night inbound) to 71 minutes (rush hour outbound) from L'Enfant Plaza to Dulles -- and the bus stops at the terminal. Most trips take 50 to 55 minutes, outside of rush hour. Right now, the Silver Line from L'Enfant Plaza to Wiehle-Reston East takes 46 minutes -- and Dulles will be yet another 4 stations further, so tack on another 10-15 minutes, plus the 5-minute walk to & from the terminal. Outside of rush hour (worst traffic conditions) the Silver Line will be slower and the schlep to the terminal will be inconvenient.

Take anything you read in an EIS with a grain of salt because there's an agenda involved with getting the project approved.

It might draw some passengers from the Tysons area who can walk to a station, but the parking along the Silver Line is set up to serve commuters, not air travelers taking multi-day trips from IAD. And people along the Silver Line route were probably already using Dulles because it is closer. By the time you get as far in as Falls Church total travel time is probably going to tip in favor of DCA.


Rush hours are the most important travel times of the day! The Silver Line will be faster in an absolute sense for most trips, and certainly a faster overall journey (due to the dramatically increased frequency) for most riders to IAD. The EIS says 43 minutes from Rosslyn to Dulles; the 5A travel times in the schedule are comparable. Which is impressive, given that a rail line with lots of stops is just as fast as a non-stop bus.

There's also absolutely no basis for the assertion that the transit travel times in the EIS are wrong. In fact, the phase 1 trips are faster! The EIS called for 38 minutes between Tysons West (now Spring Hill Road) and Metro Center - the actual travel time is 34 minutes.

The fact that the Silver Line can make the trip that fast with all of the stops is a feature, not a bug. It means that all of the people who live near the orange or silver lines can easily consider just riding Metro to the airport - that's a much larger potential market than today's 5A bus.

More frequency on the 5A wouldn't require $7 billion. And no, the span of service for the trains on most weekdays is not longer than for the 5A; the first bus to IAD leaves at 0450 and the last bus from IAD departs at 2335; compare that to the rail operating hours of 0500 to 2330.


They didn't build the Silver Line solely to get to and from the airport. It's undeniable that the combination of speed, frequency, and reliability for the Silver Line will be dramatically superior to the 5A bus.

Back to the topic at hand - lots of people like to complain about getting to Dulles in the DC area, but it's really not that hard - particularly if you're looking for an international flight. The Silver Line will only make that journey easier.

Likewise, the case for international service that stops to pre-clear at some location that can offer that service and is within the DCA perimeter makes no operational sense. There's functionally no difference for a passenger between this an a connection at another hub (JFK or PHL for AA); and anyone looking for a direct flight to, say, LHR can make use of AA's JV partner flights at BWI and IAD.
 
blockski
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Re: DCA to the world

Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:59 pm

TangoandCash wrote:
masseybrown wrote:
Gate 35X is always over crowded and a huge bottleneck. I don't know how much more traffic they can comfortably run through the place in the meantime. Of course, comfort isn't a priority any more.



This. All of DCA is an overrun, overcrowded madhouse. DCA was a very pleasant airport until AA decided to use it as a hub, which is the farthest from what it's capable of handling and designed for. Now it's standing room only. Of course, comfort isn't a priority any more.


Note that there are projects underway specifically to address this. The New North Concourse will take the Gate 35X remote gates and give them jetbridges; the new security checkpoints will put National Hall behind security and free up movement between the piers (as well as provide more space for passenger circulation, retail, bathrooms, etc.
 
ScottB
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Re: DCA to the world

Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:34 pm

blockski wrote:
Rush hours are the most important travel times of the day! The Silver Line will be faster in an absolute sense for most trips, and certainly a faster overall journey (due to the dramatically increased frequency) for most riders to IAD. The EIS says 43 minutes from Rosslyn to Dulles; the 5A travel times in the schedule are comparable. Which is impressive, given that a rail line with lots of stops is just as fast as a non-stop bus.


Rush hour is the most important time of the day for commuters, but not necessarily so much for air travelers. Much of peak air travel demand occurs outside commuter rush hours or involves ground travel in the opposite direction of rush hour traffic.

It's not impressive at all that the rail line is comparable in speed with the stops because the rail line has the huge advantage of a dedicated right of way. Likely close to half the time required for the bus trip is spent navigating city streets to and from the stations, including plenty of time sitting at traffic lights. And again, frequency of the 5A bus is solely a function of the resources WMATA is willing to devote to the route. Nothing prevents them from running with the same frequency as the Silver Line outside of low ridership.

If WMATA had really wanted to improve the connectivity to Dulles, they would have built in the option for express trains (stopping at Metro Center, Rosslyn, East Falls Church, Tysons, and IAD); that would have cut 20-30 minutes off travel times and also have been helpful in improving travel times for commuters farther out.

blockski wrote:
It means that all of the people who live near the orange or silver lines can easily consider just riding Metro to the airport - that's a much larger potential market than today's 5A bus.


But... in the suburbs, getting to the station without a car is inconvenient and station parking isn't intended for multi-day stays. Plus MWAA really doesn't want too many passengers taking transit to the airport because that will cut into parking and rental car surcharge revenues.

There will be a handful who take the Silver Line to/from IAD -- tourists, price-sensitive leisure passengers, and airport workers mostly. It really will draw few, if any, from DCA because the long ride out to the airport will still be inconvenient. JFK Airtrain still doesn't make JFK competitive with LGA (outside of price-sensitive passengers) and the Silver Line will fail to do the same for IAD vs. DCA.
 
masseybrown
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Re: DCA to the world

Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:48 pm

blockski wrote:
TangoandCash wrote:
masseybrown wrote:
Gate 35X is always over crowded and a huge bottleneck. I don't know how much more traffic they can comfortably run through the place in the meantime. Of course, comfort isn't a priority any more.



This. All of DCA is an overrun, overcrowded madhouse. DCA was a very pleasant airport until AA decided to use it as a hub, which is the farthest from what it's capable of handling and designed for. Now it's standing room only. Of course, comfort isn't a priority any more.


Note that there are projects underway specifically to address this. The New North Concourse will take the Gate 35X remote gates and give them jetbridges; the new security checkpoints will put National Hall behind security and free up movement between the piers (as well as provide more space for passenger circulation, retail, bathrooms, etc.


I landed at DCA on Sunday and noticed (for the first time) visible progress on the northern extension of Terminal C. We're still years away from completion though.
 
blockski
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Re: DCA to the world

Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:52 pm

ScottB wrote:
blockski wrote:
Rush hours are the most important travel times of the day! The Silver Line will be faster in an absolute sense for most trips, and certainly a faster overall journey (due to the dramatically increased frequency) for most riders to IAD. The EIS says 43 minutes from Rosslyn to Dulles; the 5A travel times in the schedule are comparable. Which is impressive, given that a rail line with lots of stops is just as fast as a non-stop bus.


Rush hour is the most important time of the day for commuters, but not necessarily so much for air travelers. Much of peak air travel demand occurs outside commuter rush hours or involves ground travel in the opposite direction of rush hour traffic.

It's not impressive at all that the rail line is comparable in speed with the stops because the rail line has the huge advantage of a dedicated right of way. Likely close to half the time required for the bus trip is spent navigating city streets to and from the stations, including plenty of time sitting at traffic lights. And again, frequency of the 5A bus is solely a function of the resources WMATA is willing to devote to the route. Nothing prevents them from running with the same frequency as the Silver Line outside of low ridership.

If WMATA had really wanted to improve the connectivity to Dulles, they would have built in the option for express trains (stopping at Metro Center, Rosslyn, East Falls Church, Tysons, and IAD); that would have cut 20-30 minutes off travel times and also have been helpful in improving travel times for commuters farther out.


Again, WMATA was not solely trying to improve travel times to Dulles. That was never the purpose of the project. And the entire reason for building this kind of rail line is precisely to avoid the traffic lights and take advantage of the dedicated right of way.

It's also not simply a matter of resources to increase frequency. There's also the matter of cost-effectiveness - running a long-distance non-stop bus line with no dedicated lanes and rail-like frequency is a fun thought experiment but not a realistic operating plan. And of course, that doesn't meet any of the region's long-term goals (which is why they picked a rail extension for the Silver Line in the first place).

Building in an express bypass of Tysons would've been very expensive and frankly of limited use. Any time you branch a transit line, you divide the potential frequency (and thus the potential market of riders). And it's true that rail rush hours and airport rush hours seldom match, but that's not necessarily true at Dulles. The busiest time is in the mid-afternoon bank of flights that coincides with the PM rush.

blockski wrote:
It means that all of the people who live near the orange or silver lines can easily consider just riding Metro to the airport - that's a much larger potential market than today's 5A bus.


But... in the suburbs, getting to the station without a car is inconvenient and station parking isn't intended for multi-day stays. Plus MWAA really doesn't want too many passengers taking transit to the airport because that will cut into parking and rental car surcharge revenues.

There will be a handful who take the Silver Line to/from IAD -- tourists, price-sensitive leisure passengers, and airport workers mostly. It really will draw few, if any, from DCA because the long ride out to the airport will still be inconvenient. JFK Airtrain still doesn't make JFK competitive with LGA (outside of price-sensitive passengers) and the Silver Line will fail to do the same for IAD vs. DCA.


MWAA absolutely wants more people using IAD, and on net - that's what the Silver Line can do. There's a reason they've prioritized this - they're not worried about parking revenues because of transit riders. The transit riders are a different market, as you note.

If all you're saying is that the Silver Line won't be a Silver Bullet, that's fine. But that's a completely banal and empty observation. That doesn't really say anything about the benefits of Metro to Dulles. Making it easier for tourists, leisure travelers, and workers to get to IAD is an unequivocally good thing. It will improve IAD's position on the margins.
 
global2
Posts: 517
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:50 am

Re: DCA to the world

Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:01 pm

ScottB wrote:
blockski wrote:

There will be a handful who take the Silver Line to/from IAD -- tourists, price-sensitive leisure passengers, and airport workers mostly. It really will draw few, if any, from DCA because the long ride out to the airport will still be inconvenient. JFK Airtrain still doesn't make JFK competitive with LGA (outside of price-sensitive passengers) and the Silver Line will fail to do the same for IAD vs. DCA.


The JFK Airtrain only takes you to either the Jamaica LIRR station or Howard Beach on the A Train, requiring a transfer. The Silver Line goes directly into the heart of DC. I would think that would make it rather attractive--particularly more so than a bus.
Regarding the station at Dulles, will there be any sort of moving sidewalks installed to cover the distance to the terminal from the station?
 
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asuflyer05
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Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 8:53 am

Re: DCA to the world

Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:24 pm

global2 wrote:
ScottB wrote:
blockski wrote:
Regarding the station at Dulles, will there be any sort of moving sidewalks installed to cover the distance to the terminal from the station?


There is an underground tunnel with a moving walkway from the terminal to Garage 1 already in place. The metro station sits just in front of Garage 1.
 
ScottB
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Re: DCA to the world

Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:46 pm

global2 wrote:
The JFK Airtrain only takes you to either the Jamaica LIRR station or Howard Beach on the A Train, requiring a transfer. The Silver Line goes directly into the heart of DC. I would think that would make it rather attractive--particularly more so than a bus.


Apologies for going off-topic, but the transit option from LGA that takes one right into the heart of Manhattan is what? DCA is still going to be 30+ minutes closer to anywhere in DC via transit.

blockski wrote:
If all you're saying is that the Silver Line won't be a Silver Bullet, that's fine. But that's a completely banal and empty observation. That doesn't really say anything about the benefits of Metro to Dulles. Making it easier for tourists, leisure travelers, and workers to get to IAD is an unequivocally good thing. It will improve IAD's position on the margins.


No, the point is that the Silver Line isn't the game changer for IAD which boosters claim it will be. Spending hundreds of millions of dollars (the incremental cost of the detour into the airport) probably isn't worthwhile compared with the bus which offers comparable travel times today, at lower frequency, but which drops passengers at the terminal rather than a five minute walk away. And while sitting on a bus in traffic isn't fun, neither is dealing with suitcases on a subway train full of commuters.

neutronstar73 wrote:
given that people have avoided Dulles because it required a drive into the city, that excuse goes away when the Metro Silver Line expansion is complete.


People that "have avoided Dulles because it required a drive into the city" aren't going to choose Dulles when the replacement is an hour-long train ride.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: DCA to the world

Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:01 pm

Dont worry silver line fans...we heard the same BS about Airtrain JFK when it was going up.

Meanwhile, it is one of the busiest, if not busiest airport rail link in the country, operates 24/7 and JFK has gone from 30 mil to 60 mil pax a year since it opened while LGA has been pretty stagnant.

It will do wonders for IAD...no one likes a bus.
 
masseybrown
Posts: 5546
Joined: Wed Dec 11, 2002 2:40 pm

Re: DCA to the world

Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:21 pm

blockski wrote:
If all you're saying is that the Silver Line won't be a Silver Bullet, that's fine.


I've taken the regular underground, not the Heathrow Express, from Heathrow into London. It doesn't take *that* much longer (20-25 minutes?); you see more interesting people; and it's much cheaper.

This may be wildly optimistic, but I think that eventually WMATA will decide they need an express line (costing billions) for at least half the trip and Silver will become speedier.
 
N292UX
Posts: 573
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Re: DCA to the world

Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:30 pm

DCA is already nearly at capacity and as long as the perimeter rule is there, there won't be any TATL service. The runway is also way to short to support any heavies that airlines like AA,BA,Etc. would send. DCA's role in the DC area is as the main domestic airport and serves a lot of O&D traffic. Plus there's plenty of TATL flights out of Dulles which is not that far away.
 
blockski
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Re: DCA to the world

Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:31 pm

ScottB wrote:
No, the point is that the Silver Line isn't the game changer for IAD which boosters claim it will be. Spending hundreds of millions of dollars (the incremental cost of the detour into the airport) probably isn't worthwhile compared with the bus which offers comparable travel times today, at lower frequency, but which drops passengers at the terminal rather than a five minute walk away. And while sitting on a bus in traffic isn't fun, neither is dealing with suitcases on a subway train full of commuters.


Right - it's not going to be a 'game changer' - that's exactly what I said. But it is still going to be a good thing for the airport, the region, and the airlines that serve IAD.

Also, they're not spending millions on a 'detour' to the airport. The airport is a key destination for the entire line! It would be transit planning malpractice to build this kind of a line that would go right by a major airport and not find a way to serve that kind of a major destination.
 
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Pellegrine
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Re: DCA to the world

Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:49 pm

DCA is going to remain domestic...but it certainly would be cool to have LHR/AMS/CDG as nonstops...not gonna happen though.

iadadd wrote:
RJNUT wrote:
My cousin lives in old town Alexandria and will ALWAYS fly from DCA, even to go abroad involving a connection, rather than trek to IAD. She has , however, tried BWI a few times, though.



Dulles is closer to Alexandria than BWI. So unless she's chasing the cheaper fare, the distance to BWI from Alexandria likely take an 1 hour, more of a 'trek". Plus, DCA-xxx-International tend to be way more expensive than IAD-International


DCA is more expensive, sometimes markedly so, than IAD domestically too. I live in DC proper and I use DCA for ALL domestic travel, connect from DCA for some international, and sometimes IAD for international.
We fly JETS, we don't fly donkeys.
 
toxtethogrady
Posts: 1861
Joined: Sat Dec 23, 2000 12:33 pm

Re: DCA to the world

Thu Aug 09, 2018 3:02 pm

chunhimlai wrote:
DCA-PEK , DCA-HND , DCA-LHR , DCA-BRU , DCA-CDG , DCA-BER , anything else?

In order to archive that DCA needs massive expansion
Runway 15/33 expand northwestward and pass through the Pentagon and Arlington
Runway 1/19 and 4/22 expand northward to cross Potomac River
The new ATC tower will be built on the top of Jefferson Memorial
New multi store car park will be built under the Potomac Park and the Lincoln Memorial will be modified to be the entrance


From beyond the grave, John Hechinger was seen to shake his fist...
 
toxtethogrady
Posts: 1861
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Re: DCA to the world

Thu Aug 09, 2018 3:09 pm

ScottB wrote:
No, the point is that the Silver Line isn't the game changer for IAD which boosters claim it will be. Spending hundreds of millions of dollars (the incremental cost of the detour into the airport) probably isn't worthwhile compared with the bus which offers comparable travel times today, at lower frequency, but which drops passengers at the terminal rather than a five minute walk away. And while sitting on a bus in traffic isn't fun, neither is dealing with suitcases on a subway train full of commuters.


Whatever the expense, the Silver Line is well underway and will get to Dulles within a couple of years. As for the detour, the rail is supposed to be under the arrivals/departures curbs, so it's closer than the garages.
 
AEROFAN
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Re: DCA to the world

Thu Aug 09, 2018 3:21 pm

chunhimlai wrote:
DCA-PEK , DCA-HND , DCA-LHR , DCA-BRU , DCA-CDG , DCA-BER , anything else?

In order to archive that DCA needs massive expansion
Runway 15/33 expand northwestward and pass through the Pentagon and Arlington
Runway 1/19 and 4/22 expand northward to cross Potomac River
The new ATC tower will be built on the top of Jefferson Memorial
New multi store car park will be built under the Potomac Park and the Lincoln Memorial will be modified to be the entrance


LOL. This is funny :D.. I think you meant to write achieve, though...
“You are not entitled to your opinion. You are entitled to your informed opinion. No one is entitled to be ignorant.” ~Harlan Ellison~
 
izbtmnhd
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Re: DCA to the world

Thu Aug 09, 2018 3:24 pm

blockski wrote:
ScottB wrote:
neutronstar73 wrote:
I think United has a huge advantage going forward in the DC area, especially when the Metro is completed and will link Dulles to DC proper. They have a huge airport that can handle anything, and, given that people have avoided Dulles because it required a drive into the city, that excuse goes away when the Metro Silver Line expansion is complete.


Again, the Silver Line will change little because it's designed to get commuters around, not to get passengers from the District to IAD. One CAN travel from the city to Dulles, but the ride will be roughly an hour with just under 20 stops from Metro Center, and the train will stop a quarter mile from the terminal. The Silver Line to Dulles will be slower than the preexisting bus in all but the worst traffic conditions. An hour-long train ride each way isn't going to attract high-value customers to Washington Mirabel.


The Silver Line will not be slower than the 5A bus. The EIS shows it will be substantially faster, and it will have a much larger catchment area because it serves more stops. It's a huge improvement over the existing bus options.

That also misses the most important element of any transit service - frequency. Silver Line trains will be far more frequent and run for a much longer span of service than the existing 5A buses, which only come every 30 minutes at best on weekdays and just once an hour on weekends.

Are high-value customers going to ride the Metro to Dulles? No. But that's not the point.


The Silver Line will be slow due to fact that it still shares a track with the Blue and Orange lines, especially off-peak. Not to mention never ending system delays. Will it be better than 5A? Sure. Will it be a game changer for people inside the Beltway? Not really.

Remember at DCA you're literally almost at your gate from the Metro station. For IAD you have to walk under hourly parking and the larger terminal then go board another train or a mobile lounge. Not to mention the walkback tunnel if you are travelling out of C. So, so much slower.
 
FlyPNS1
Posts: 5506
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Re: DCA to the world

Thu Aug 09, 2018 3:43 pm

This whole debate between DCA and IAD is kind of pointless. Sure, DCA is the preferred airport. However, DCA is pretty much at capacity NOW. Most of the future growth has to go to IAD (or BWI).

Note, for the first five months of 2018, DCA traffic has declined 2.3%, while IAD is up 4.5%.

The Silver Line will help with that long-term plan. The Silver Line is also enabling a lot of population growth in places like Reston/Tysons Corner and those future residents are likely to prefer IAD.
 
ScottB
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Re: DCA to the world

Thu Aug 09, 2018 4:20 pm

blockski wrote:
Also, they're not spending millions on a 'detour' to the airport. The airport is a key destination for the entire line! It would be transit planning malpractice to build this kind of a line that would go right by a major airport and not find a way to serve that kind of a major destination.


The detour to get to a quarter-mile from the terminal is about a mile-and-a-half versus continuing in the median of the access road/tollway (both stops on either side of Dulles are in the median). That's lame for commuters further out on the Silver Line and expensive. Phase 2 is estimated to cost $4.1 billion for 11.5 miles so a mile-and-a-half would cost about a half billion, give or take. Access to the airport could be provided by a dedicated people mover from the Innovation Center station or by a shuttle bus; at least the latter would drop passengers at the terminal. If MWAA hadn't so grossly overspent on other projects, a consolidated rental car center combined with a Silver Line station/transit center/long term garage east of the Green Lot, linked to the terminal by people mover, would have been ideal.

toxtethogrady wrote:
the rail is supposed to be under the arrivals/departures curbs, so it's closer than the garages.


It's in front of Garage 1, so maybe 100 feet closer?
 
UA772IAD
Posts: 1343
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Re: DCA to the world

Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:09 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Dont worry silver line fans...we heard the same BS about Airtrain JFK when it was going up.

Meanwhile, it is one of the busiest, if not busiest airport rail link in the country, operates 24/7 and JFK has gone from 30 mil to 60 mil pax a year since it opened while LGA has been pretty stagnant.

It will do wonders for IAD...no one likes a bus.


I don't dispute what you're saying (particularly the last part), but I don't think you can compare the two.

I'm a proponent for public transportation but I don't think this a fair comparison. NY has always embraced public transportation as a viable means to getting around the city. How many New Yorkers own cars v. those that don't? The subway is viable, and often quicker way of getting around New York- particularly Manhattan, and is embraced. Metro, in D.C., I feel is largely begrudgingly used by those who don't have a car, who live near a station, or who may not have parking privileges at work- especially in light of the system's service reductions, fare increases and reliability issues over the past several years. Metro doesn't run 24/7 - and the real benefactors of a direct rail link to IAD are airport employees without a car or ride to work, and even their usage will be limited to service schedule.

There are two repeated untruths that always come into play with DC Aviation threads- 1) that IAD is "unprofitable" and "undesirable." / That everyone traveling to WAS is going downtown / that no one likes "trekking all the way out" to IAD. 2) A Transit Rail link will compel more travelers to use the airport (or any airport with a rail link).

To that I say, 1) IAD continues to hold its own; UA remains committed to its operation there and in addition, the portfolio of foreign carriers offering service is substantial is contrary to the arguments that the airport is undesirable or unprofitable. 2) Ride-sharing services like Uber and Lyft have dramatically impacted the practicality and profitability of offering transit connections to the airport (not saying they shouldn't exist- but their importance in providing seamless and attractive access to the region has been shattered by the likes of Uber and Lyft).
 
izbtmnhd
Posts: 944
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:06 pm

Re: DCA to the world

Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:29 pm

FlyPNS1 wrote:
This whole debate between DCA and IAD is kind of pointless. Sure, DCA is the preferred airport. However, DCA is pretty much at capacity NOW. Most of the future growth has to go to IAD (or BWI).

Note, for the first five months of 2018, DCA traffic has declined 2.3%, while IAD is up 4.5%.

The Silver Line will help with that long-term plan. The Silver Line is also enabling a lot of population growth in places like Reston/Tysons Corner and those future residents are likely to prefer IAD.


Not true. Fairfax County's population growth has slowed to a crawl since the Silver Line was built.

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tab ... tml?src=CF

Looks like the link won't stick. You can query Fairfax County and see for yourself
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 5198
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Re: DCA to the world

Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:44 pm

EarlyLateORD wrote:
I have a few questions regarding DCA and its status as an AA Hub

DCA currently doesn't have CBP services and any intl carriers that serve it pre clear their customers. DCA also has well known range limits.

Up until recently DL operated a 757 DCA-ATL-BSB(Brasilia) and return, offering a Capitol to Capitol service.

With the 757 fleet and possible future A321LR purchases, could AA offer some degree of intl service from DCA by doing DCA-(Bangor?-Gas n Go) LHR/AMS/DUB? On the return clear customs in Bangor or a similar uncongested airport?

I know that AA's model is to drive all traffic through PHL/JFK, but this could be a successful option especially with Intl narrow body aircraft that avoids the congested nearby hubs.

Adam


e38 wrote:
this type of service already exists:

Delta’s flights 150/151 operate daily service Washington D.C. - Atlanta - Lima, Peru and v.v. using Airbus A-321 DCA - ATL and Boeing 767-400 ATL - LIM.

e38


DL 105 also did this with DCA-ATL-GRU. It was an MD-88 to ATL connecting to a 767 onward.

US may have done it as well, as I flew US 750 DCA-PHL on an A319 years ago and post-HP merger 700s flights were typically TATL.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
AEROFAN
Posts: 1868
Joined: Wed Aug 04, 2004 9:47 am

Re: DCA to the world

Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:38 pm

ScottB wrote:
global2 wrote:
The JFK Airtrain only takes you to either the Jamaica LIRR station or Howard Beach on the A Train, requiring a transfer. The Silver Line goes directly into the heart of DC. I would think that would make it rather attractive--particularly more so than a bus.


Apologies for going off-topic, but the transit option from LGA that takes one right into the heart of Manhattan is what? DCA is still going to be 30+ minutes closer to anywhere in DC via transit.

blockski wrote:
If all you're saying is that the Silver Line won't be a Silver Bullet, that's fine. But that's a completely banal and empty observation. That doesn't really say anything about the benefits of Metro to Dulles. Making it easier for tourists, leisure travelers, and workers to get to IAD is an unequivocally good thing. It will improve IAD's position on the margins.


No, the point is that the Silver Line isn't the game changer for IAD which boosters claim it will be. Spending hundreds of millions of dollars (the incremental cost of the detour into the airport) probably isn't worthwhile compared with the bus which offers comparable travel times today, at lower frequency, but which drops passengers at the terminal rather than a five minute walk away. And while sitting on a bus in traffic isn't fun, neither is dealing with suitcases on a subway train full of commuters.

neutronstar73 wrote:
given that people have avoided Dulles because it required a drive into the city, that excuse goes away when the Metro Silver Line expansion is complete.


People that "have avoided Dulles because it required a drive into the city" aren't going to choose Dulles when the replacement is an hour-long train ride.


How do you know this Scott? I live in DC and I look to being able to take a train directly to the airport. I suspect that old cliche ... build it and they will come...will go into effect once it is up and running.
“You are not entitled to your opinion. You are entitled to your informed opinion. No one is entitled to be ignorant.” ~Harlan Ellison~
 
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American 767
Posts: 4529
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Re: DCA to the world

Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:39 pm

Could AA make DCA-DUB work on the A321NEO? I'm pretty sure this leg nonstop is within the range of the airplane, even with the headwinds westbound. No need to have CBP at DCA for this flight since passengers already clear US immigration in Ireland when flying to the US. Yes true there is the perimeter rule at DCA.
Ben Soriano
 
JonNYC
Posts: 97
Joined: Tue Mar 27, 2018 1:26 pm

Re: DCA to the world

Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:24 pm

AA IAD-LHR. You heard it here first.
 
ScottB
Posts: 7064
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: DCA to the world

Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:33 pm

AEROFAN wrote:
How do you know this Scott? I live in DC and I look to being able to take a train directly to the airport. I suspect that old cliche ... build it and they will come...will go into effect once it is up and running.


Because the utility of an airport link isn't just about its existence; it's also about actual convenience. I am not claiming no one will use Metro to Dulles; it's just that the set of passengers who will are going to be overwhelmingly price-sensitive and leisure-oriented. They're the ones who will be willing to spend an extra hour door-to-gate versus using DCA if coming from the District. Even coming from Faifax, Loudoun, or Prince William Counties, for the Silver Line to be useful for IAD access, you have to live/work near a station or get a ride to the station; the parking at the stations isn't intended for multiple-day use (i.e. Wiehle-Reston East has 10 spaces out of 2,300 designated for multiple-day use).

Silver Line just doesn't change the equation with respect to convenience in the region, so it's not going to move the needle much on passenger traffic.
 
winstonavgeek
Posts: 40
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:00 pm

Re: DCA to the world

Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:35 pm

In my opinion, the only new routes that I see that could be granted past the exception are AA DCA-SAT and WN DCA-DEN.
 
soflaflyer
Posts: 173
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2008 10:35 pm

Re: DCA to the world

Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:32 pm

JonNYC wrote:
AA IAD-LHR. You heard it here first.


Additive or replacing one of BAs flights?

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