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gzm
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:08 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
And that's why I think this idea that someone intended to fly the thing undetected into the Indian Ocean is unlikely. Quite apart from the fact that you should *expect* to be detected passing back past Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia...

THIS! You have a clear mind,TLS. So,I will tell you what I believe: It must have been its mission (just like the Korean 747) either to cause electronic reception (spotting of radar sites) or,provoke in such a way as to raise the alarm so that its fate would be sealed. It was a suicidal mission,yes, and now I am also addressing "Hincley". The problem is,as one pilot put it on YouTube two weeks after the disappearance, "You need not incapacitate your wireless,you may still need to communicate". In other words there are two hijackers on board on a mission. You know who I have in mind.
 
hinckley
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Tue Aug 14, 2018 5:39 pm

gzm wrote:
THIS! You have a clear mind,TLS. So,I will tell you what I believe: It must have been its mission (just like the Korean 747) either to cause electronic reception (spotting of radar sites) or,provoke in such a way as to raise the alarm so that its fate would be sealed. It was a suicidal mission,yes, and now I am also addressing "Hincley". The problem is,as one pilot put it on YouTube two weeks after the disappearance, "You need not incapacitate your wireless,you may still need to communicate". In other words there are two hijackers on board on a mission. You know who I have in mind.


I'm not as familiar with all the different theories, so I don't know who you have in mind. But two outsiders would have had to get thru the cockpit door (something that I don't believe has been done before) just as the plane was crossing from KUL to SGN ATC to disable the transponder. Or are you suggesting two pilots working together?
 
gzm
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:34 pm

I am suggesting the two Iranians with false passports. I am sure about that because I understand the breach in security as I am a former gate agent. Getting through the cockpit door should not have been a problem because the two pilots used to let passengers visit the cockpit and take pictures...
 
rigo
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:01 pm

Good news but I'm not holding my breath. Yes, the French BEA investigators are certainly among the best in the world, but ultimately if there is no conclusive data to make final conclusions, you need to accept that. You can also only probe the bottom of the ocean for so long. Although it's true that it eventually paid off in the AF447 case.
 
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777Jet
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:39 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
There is a total lack of any statement at all in the actions taken during MH370. If there was then we woudln't still be arguing about it! This is the fact that you never seem to accept...


The fact that you (and some others) never seem to accept is that the lack of a statement (clear statement) is irrelevant. You wrongly assume that all humans are going to be sloppy and leave behind obvious answers - there are over 7 billion different individuals on this planet. Others can see a motive (and draw a statement from that) by connecting the dots between the past Facebook posts / political interests / the guilty Anwar verdict just hours before the flight / etc. Captain gets called in to come to work that night and is lucky to have nobody else other than the most junior 777 MH pilot next to him in the cockpit. Perfect opportunity to do what he did (and later deleted) on his home flight sim just six weeks earlier. As I have said, I believe it was done to somehow undermine the government that he clearly did not like and make them look like fools - and that is indeed what they ended up looking like. Malaysia lost a 777 with 239 SOB. Anyway, that government is now gone and his beloved opposition is now in power regardless of any impact MH370 might have had on that. No need to leave behind an obvious statement because that would cast a shadow over the party he supported which would in turn undermine his cause as well leave negative impacts on his family. Was politics a good enough motive? It only matters to the unique individual who did it! Just like some debt and being taken of international flights was apparently all it took for Tsu and Gamil to crash their planes and murder their pax. It was good enough motive for them and that's all that matters - what we think of the motive and/or statement is irrelevant. It's perfectly fine that we disagree about this though.

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Again, I will put out the disclaimer that I'm not ruling out that it was some bizarre intentional act - but there is literally no point in performing such a complicated action for some political cause unless the reasons are obvious to the general public.

That, for me, makes it almost certain that something went wrong somewhere - either during normal operations or during some kind of stunt being undertaken for a political cause. In my opinion there's almost zero chance the entire set of events was planned exactly as they played out.

And that's why I think this idea that someone intended to fly the thing undetected into the Indian Ocean is unlikely.


I think the end of the plan was to make the plane as difficult to find as possible. If so, it worked! One would hope to remain undetected if doing such ;)

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Quite apart from the fact that you should *expect* to be detected passing back past Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia...


By flying along the FIR boundaries or directly over land boundaries, as 9M-MRO allegedly did, it apparently reduces the risk of drawing attention to yourself as one region assumes the other is looking after you and hence leaves you alone. This has been discussed many times. There are articles written by aviation experts on this. Google is your friend. And... it worked! No red flag was raised and 9M-MRO got away. Nobody bothered it. To get to the SIO from the SCS, in the rough area where the pings and the Captains home flight sim waypoints lead, it had to have flown a route in which detection was possible anyway - it just flew the safest / least likely route for detection and ended up getting away anyway. Mission accomplished! If something was wrong with the plane and they really wanted to be detected they would have put it in a holding pattern somewhere just off the coast. This plane was not to be found though.
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TedToToe
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:44 pm

Sorry, but this smacks of the French government being seen to do something to appease its citizens. Without finding the hull itself, the most compelling theory is that the captain set its course knowing how much fuel remained and, thus, sealing the sad fate of all those onboard!
 
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:27 am

hinckley wrote:
The MH370 investigations are riddled with these dark, deep-state mysteries. We'll never know the truth.

You've been talking to Spyhunter, haven't you? ;)
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gzm
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:29 am

Moose135 wrote:
hinckley wrote:
The MH370 investigations are riddled with these dark, deep-state mysteries. We'll never know the truth.

You've been talking to Spyhunter, haven't you? ;)

MH370 is the kind of mystery that people will be talking about fifty years from now like the assassination of Kennedy. A lot of factors conspired, it was not the doing of one man. And by the time the truth is known, none of us will be alive anyway. Now, since you mentioned Spyhunter, who is only advertising himself and I must admit, I am amazed by his intelligence, he is also lying when he says China shot down the plane. So you grab this comment and you throw out all his theorizing. China did not shoot down the plane for the very simple reason that there were 153 Chinese on board. On the other hand I am sure she is behind the shooting down of the second plane, MH17. That was the revenge of China, I think nobody will have any trouble accepting that...
 
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:43 am

I was surprised with the article so checked a French source, and as I thought there was no reopening of the case as it was never closed. Rather a new approach is being taken now that there is an official report.

Also unlike in Malaysia or China French justice is independent, so this is really the work of investigative judges assisted by investigative police, not some state/governmental/diplomatic affair. The state can of course assist in trying to get other countries to cooperate.
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:29 am

gzm wrote:
Moose135 wrote:
hinckley wrote:
The MH370 investigations are riddled with these dark, deep-state mysteries. We'll never know the truth.

You've been talking to Spyhunter, haven't you? ;)

MH370 is the kind of mystery that people will be talking about fifty years from now like the assassination of Kennedy. A lot of factors conspired, it was not the doing of one man. And by the time the truth is known, none of us will be alive anyway. Now, since you mentioned Spyhunter, who is only advertising himself and I must admit, I am amazed by his intelligence, he is also lying when he says China shot down the plane. So you grab this comment and you throw out all his theorizing. China did not shoot down the plane for the very simple reason that there were 153 Chinese on board. On the other hand I am sure she is behind the shooting down of the second plane, MH17. That was the revenge of China, I think nobody will have any trouble accepting that...

Hmm.. I have. And honestly, with all due respect, I do have problems to read such conspiracy theories here on my favorite forum. There is a dedicated conspiracy theorist thread for that purpose in the non-aviation-section. Please use it.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:44 am

777Jet wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
There is a total lack of any statement at all in the actions taken during MH370. If there was then we woudln't still be arguing about it! This is the fact that you never seem to accept...


The fact that you (and some others) never seem to accept is that the lack of a statement (clear statement) is irrelevant. You wrongly assume that all humans are going to be sloppy and leave behind obvious answers - there are over 7 billion different individuals on this planet. Others can see a motive (and draw a statement from that) by connecting the dots between the past Facebook posts / political interests / the guilty Anwar verdict


Stop right there. I never mentioned motive - I said if it was a political act IT MUST MAKE A CLEAR AND UNAMBIGUOUS STATEMENT. A handful of conspiracy theorists drawing conclusions from obscure and unconnected circumstantial evidence is not that.

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
And that's why I think this idea that someone intended to fly the thing undetected into the Indian Ocean is unlikely.


I think the end of the plan was to make the plane as difficult to find as possible. If so, it worked! One would hope to remain undetected if doing such ;)


But...

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Quite apart from the fact that you should *expect* to be detected passing back past Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia...


By flying along the FIR boundaries or directly over land boundaries, as 9M-MRO allegedly did, it apparently reduces the risk of drawing attention to yourself as one region assumes the other is looking after you and hence leaves you alone.


But that is REALLY clutching at straws to make the evidence match the (wild) theory. That idea presupposes that a) *more* people seeing you on their radar systems means *NO-ONE* takes any notice and b) someone has to be *SO CERTAIN* of that that they're willing to risk their entire, vastly complex disappearance plan on this alone.

This has been discussed many times. There are articles written by aviation experts on this.


A small handful of people believing in it with a religious fervour doesn't make it the slightest bit convincing. Tiny chance a) multiplied by tiny chance b) makes for near-zero odds that someone would actually be planning for this.

Google is your friend.


Sarcasm, nice.
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:56 am

Look, basically what I have an issue with is this:

Supposing the pilot (and it's always the pilot for some reason) actually did have suicidal tendencies, despite all evidence to the contrary, and supposing that he really was so cut up about the Anwar verdict that he would actually want to murder a planeload of innocents to make some kind of statement...

... why not just leave a note, say something on the radio, crash into the Petronas Towers, etc. etc. etc.?

It just makes no sense to do such an elaborate, difficult and complex stunt - with SO MANY CHANCES OF FAILURE, and not even make that political statement that's supposed to be behind it all!
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:42 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Look, basically what I have an issue with is this:

Supposing the pilot (and it's always the pilot for some reason) actually did have suicidal tendencies, despite all evidence to the contrary, and supposing that he really was so cut up about the Anwar verdict that he would actually want to murder a planeload of innocents to make some kind of statement...

... why not just leave a note, say something on the radio, crash into the Petronas Towers, etc. etc. etc.?

It just makes no sense to do such an elaborate, difficult and complex stunt - with SO MANY CHANCES OF FAILURE, and not even make that political statement that's supposed to be behind it all!



Perhaps because he knew a recovery effort would be extremely difficult and exhaustive? How many crashes remain relevant 5 years later? Perhaps a more devastating crash into the petronas towers as you suggested may, but we'll never know the true intentions.

Since we really have no idea of what happened I'm not really going to speculate further.
 
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enilria
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:43 pm

hinckley wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
The statement in Utah was obvious. The statement in Seattle was obvious. The Germanwings statement was obvious.... There is a total lack of any statement at all in the actions taken during MH370. If there was then we woudln't still be arguing about it! ...


TLS, we have nothing but educated speculation regarding MH370, and your educated speculation is as valid as anyone's. But just consider this ...

There was a philosophical theory back in the 90s that is commonly referred to as "the end of history". It postulated that everything that can happen has happened. I (and may others) have always rejected that concept. There will never be an end to first time events imo. And I think it's almost (totally?) impossible to understand what's going on inside the head of any suicidal person. My educated speculation is that it was pilot suicide. I believe that the pilot wanted to become legend by being the first to make a modern airliner disappear. I think he wanted to become the modern Amelia Earhart mystery. If that was his intent, he certainly succeeded.

I believe the plane was remotely controlled, probably by a passenger in the cabin, although I'm not sure we can completely rule out it was done from the ground either.
 
gzm
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:11 pm

enilria wrote:
I believe the plane was remotely controlled, probably by a passenger in the cabin, although I'm not sure we can completely rule out it was done from the ground either.

Well yes, you are getting close, awfully close. But from which station on the ground do you mean? What do you have in mind? Now try to be more specific! Personally I do not want to be accused of being conspiratorial again!
 
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enilria
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:07 pm

gzm wrote:
enilria wrote:
I believe the plane was remotely controlled, probably by a passenger in the cabin, although I'm not sure we can completely rule out it was done from the ground either.

Well yes, you are getting close, awfully close. But from which station on the ground do you mean? What do you have in mind? Now try to be more specific! Personally I do not want to be accused of being conspiratorial again!

I don't have those sorts of details. I just see that the tech is there to hack in from other news reporting on Boeing jets and hackers. I would expect if my theory is correct it would be a State Actor testing this ability and not a hacker with a deathwish.
 
gzm
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:32 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Look, basically what I have an issue with is this:

Supposing the pilot (and it's always the pilot for some reason) actually did have suicidal tendencies, despite all evidence to the contrary, and supposing that he really was so cut up about the Anwar verdict that he would actually want to murder a planeload of innocents to make some kind of statement...

... why not just leave a note, say something on the radio, crash into the Petronas Towers, etc. etc. etc.?

It just makes no sense to do such an elaborate, difficult and complex stunt - with SO MANY CHANCES OF FAILURE, and not even make that political statement that's supposed to be behind it all!

TLS,your posts are of utmost correctness. Straight to the point. Thank you! I appreciate it!
 
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777Jet
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:26 am

gzm wrote:
I am sure she is behind the shooting down of the second plane, MH17. That was the revenge of China, I think nobody will have any trouble accepting that...


That could be your most nonsense statement to date :roll:
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:44 am

Huh, until new information arises I still think the most plausible theory is the pallet of lithium ion batteries having a thermal runaway, starting a fire in the cargo hold, damaging some electrical systems and depleting oxygen- which would cause hypoxia for humans and self-extinguish at that point. Haven't we seen how fires can create completely confusing evidence until we find black boxes to explain it all? It's just with this we never figured out its final resting place, and thus no black boxes.
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777Jet
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:53 am

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Supposing the pilot (and it's always the pilot for some reason) actually did have suicidal tendencies, despite all evidence to the contrary


What is "all the evidence" to the contrary? The statement about his normal behavior by the Malaysian Authorities doesn't really count for much because they have lied and obfuscated things from the beginning. Also, as if they know everything that was going on with him. Maybe something, or a cumulation of things, pushed him over the edge that evening and then he was presented with the perfect opportunity to do something big?

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
... why not just leave a note, say something on the radio, crash into the Petronas Towers, etc. etc. etc.?


I don't know why anybody going to leave a family behind would do that, especially if they had the chance to possibly do something like this in which it would be extremely difficult to be found guilty of to begin with. There would be no mystery if he left a note behind. His actions would haunt his family. As it stands, the aircraft hasn't been found and all some people (including myself) can say is "I think the Captain most likely did it".

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
It just makes no sense to do such an elaborate, difficult and complex stunt - with SO MANY CHANCES OF FAILURE, and not even make that political statement that's supposed to be behind it all!


I don't think it was difficult at all. Maybe it wasn't even planned thoroughly? Who knows. The reason I think something similar (to just vanish in the end with the plane) was planned is because of the deleted waypoints from the single flight session on his home sim hard drive that very closely matched the route that Inmrasat suggests the plane flew. I can't see how there were many risks either. He was guaranteed to eventually be alone in a fueled plane with one other pilot. All he had to do was take care of the other pilot and depressurize the plane. Then head to where ever he decided. What was really complex? Get the most junior 777 FO in the company out of the cockpit and then depressurize the plane? Easy. Turn the plane around and fly through a region you know very, very well for an hour or so, in the dark of night, before reaching the open vastness of the Indian Ocean? Easy. It doesn't seem too difficult and complex to me, even for a less experienced pilot. He just needed to know where he wanted to take the plane and at that time of night he was pretty much guaranteed success. I suspect he knew that those who could see him on the radar would do nothing, and if a fighter jet was sent up, how easily could 9M-MRO have been found in the dark? All I'm saying is that I don't think what I think happened would be too difficult to pull off at all (at that time when unprecedented). Maybe nowadays an unidentified blip would be taken more seriously in that area. I don't think there were many chances of failure at all on that night. Would have been too easy IMHO...
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:45 am

777Jet has best applied Occam's razor here.
 
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777Jet
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:41 pm

groundbird wrote:
777Jet has best applied Occam's razor here.


Thank you.

Jouhou wrote:
Huh, until new information arises I still think the most plausible theory is the pallet of lithium ion batteries having a thermal runaway, starting a fire in the cargo hold, damaging some electrical systems and depleting oxygen- which would cause hypoxia for humans and self-extinguish at that point. Haven't we seen how fires can create completely confusing evidence until we find black boxes to explain it all? It's just with this we never figured out its final resting place, and thus no black boxes.


Consider the lithium battery fire on UPS6. That plane flew for some time and almost landed. One pilot remained coherent enough to almost land and was talking to ATC (also relaying ATC messages via another aircraft) for the entire flight. Eventually the smoke took its toll and the plane went down. But how long do you think that plane would have been able to fly if it was on auto pilot? Would fire have not eventually crippled it? Also, consider the fire on SR111. Those pilots were also able to fly for quite some time and communicated to ATC the entire time before fire crippled that plane. With MH370, you have a very routine ATC sign off without any mention of a single problem and then just minutes later the plane goes silent and does a U-turn. Also, the plane ended up flying for an amount of time very consistent with what the alleged fuel load would allow. The normal ATC sign off, the plane then going silent almost immediately and doing a U-turn, the heading changes and route flown, just the Sat-Com coming back online, the flight duration, etc., when combined, pretty much rule out fire IMHO.

Question: How do you view the actual route flown according to the Inmarsat data very closely matching the (deleted) waypoints from a single flight flown in the Captain's home flight sim about six weeks earlier? What are the odds of that being just a coincidence?
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:06 pm

Oh good, here we go again. I bet nothing beneficial comes of it before they turn it back into a cold case, and there are plenty of more constructive things France could be occupying their time with. They still don't have the key pieces of wreckage, they don't have the cause or any real evidence to speak of, therefore, they can't say anything conclusive so they go down the conspiracy track as justification for not finding out the cause rather than just admit they don't know. I daresay nothing will happen until the next tsunami churns a hulking chunk of fuselage up from the depths on a beach somewhere in the Indian Ocean
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:33 pm

groundbird wrote:
777Jet has best applied Occam's razor here.


Seriously?!?
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Jouhou
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:50 pm

777Jet wrote:
groundbird wrote:
777Jet has best applied Occam's razor here.


Thank you.

Jouhou wrote:
Huh, until new information arises I still think the most plausible theory is the pallet of lithium ion batteries having a thermal runaway, starting a fire in the cargo hold, damaging some electrical systems and depleting oxygen- which would cause hypoxia for humans and self-extinguish at that point. Haven't we seen how fires can create completely confusing evidence until we find black boxes to explain it all? It's just with this we never figured out its final resting place, and thus no black boxes.


Consider the lithium battery fire on UPS6. That plane flew for some time and almost landed. One pilot remained coherent enough to almost land and was talking to ATC (also relaying ATC messages via another aircraft) for the entire flight. Eventually the smoke took its toll and the plane went down. But how long do you think that plane would have been able to fly if it was on auto pilot? Would fire have not eventually crippled it? Also, consider the fire on SR111. Those pilots were also able to fly for quite some time and communicated to ATC the entire time before fire crippled that plane. With MH370, you have a very routine ATC sign off without any mention of a single problem and then just minutes later the plane goes silent and does a U-turn. Also, the plane ended up flying for an amount of time very consistent with what the alleged fuel load would allow. The normal ATC sign off, the plane then going silent almost immediately and doing a U-turn, the heading changes and route flown, just the Sat-Com coming back online, the flight duration, etc., when combined, pretty much rule out fire IMHO.

Question: How do you view the actual route flown according to the Inmarsat data very closely matching the (deleted) waypoints from a single flight flown in the Captain's home flight sim about six weeks earlier? What are the odds of that being just a coincidence?


Y'all keep forgetting there was complete silence from the passengers too. Didn't that plane have satellite phones?
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smaragdz
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:09 pm

777Jet wrote:
The reason I think something similar (to just vanish in the end with the plane) was planned is because of the deleted waypoints from the single flight session on his home sim hard drive that very closely matched the route that Inmrasat suggests the plane flew..


Can you please show us the report which states that there were "deleted waypoints" that "very closely matched the route that Inmrasat suggests the plane flew"

From your own comment (#40 in this thread):
: “In the six weeks before the accident flight, the pilot in command had used his simulator to fly a route similar to part of the route flown by MH370 up the Strait of Malacca, with a left-hand turn and track into the southern Indian Ocean.”

That is hardly 'closely matching' the calculated route from inmarasat. And indeed, there are contradictory statements as to what exactly was found on the hard drive. So for now we cannot conclude anything from the simulator data. As nobody, be it the official investigators or those claiming a coverup(including the 'industry sources' in comment #40) have provided any details on what exactly was found ('waypoint' location and flight session) then there is no way we can use this information to form any type of argument. Doing so, and embellishing the details ('very closely matched') only erodes credibility.

At this stage what we need is the raw data of what they found, showing the wapypoints/flight path and the session. The sources who claim to know more details should be able to provide at least some evidence or details to back up their claims.
 
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:26 pm

Jouhou wrote:

Y'all keep forgetting there was complete silence from the passengers too. Didn't that plane have satellite phones?


Almost as easily disabled from the cockpit as the transponder. Probably part of the “What to do when I’m the only one in charge of the airplane” checklist.
 
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Fri Aug 17, 2018 5:46 am

7BOEING7 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

Y'all keep forgetting there was complete silence from the passengers too. Didn't that plane have satellite phones?


Almost as easily disabled from the cockpit as the transponder. Probably part of the “What to do when I’m the only one in charge of the airplane” checklist.


Eh, I know it's more fun to weave a story around human drama. When it happened I was suspicious of the fact that it happened right after the invasion of Ukraine, there were 2 Ukrainians and 1 Russian pax, both Ukraine and Russia were the last to confirm their own citizens, and rumors of Russia in negotiations to use Vietnamese airfields. However, I did find the Australian report to be convincing enough to rain on my parade.

Also MH 17 happened. I really don't think Russia has a secret grudge against Malaysian Airlines.
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Fri Aug 17, 2018 6:05 am

hinckley wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
The statement in Utah was obvious. The statement in Seattle was obvious. The Germanwings statement was obvious.... There is a total lack of any statement at all in the actions taken during MH370. If there was then we woudln't still be arguing about it! ...


TLS, we have nothing but educated speculation regarding MH370, and your educated speculation is as valid as anyone's. But just consider this ...

There was a philosophical theory back in the 90s that is commonly referred to as "the end of history". It postulated that everything that can happen has happened. I (and may others) have always rejected that concept. There will never be an end to first time events imo. And I think it's almost (totally?) impossible to understand what's going on inside the head of any suicidal person. My educated speculation is that it was pilot suicide. I believe that the pilot wanted to become legend by being the first to make a modern airliner disappear. I think he wanted to become the modern Amelia Earhart mystery. If that was his intent, he certainly succeeded.


I'm kind of convinced that one of the pilots committed murder-suicide, too. Probably the captain, because of the simulator data, but until we find the plane, it could have been both of them. No need to speculate.

But I would not want to say he "wanted to do something first in history and make an airplane disappear". Too many have disappeared for that in the past over the oceans of this world, mainly a few decades back when technology wasn't as powerful as today (no satelites etc.). It is far more likely that his suicide would result in no insurance payment to his family or that the personal shame on him as a person would be too big. So he thought of a way to make the airplane disappear inlcuding any proof that we are dealing with a murder-suicide.
 
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:16 am

CARST wrote:
It is far more likely that his suicide would result in no insurance payment to his family or that the personal shame on him as a person would be too big. So he thought of a way to make the airplane disappear inlcuding any proof that we are dealing with a murder-suicide.


As well as the shame on his family ('face' is very important in that region). And these are some of the reasons why it would make no sense at all to leave a suicide note or anything that would make it easy to establish one's guilt. Yet some people continue to not accept this and continue to use the lack of a suicide note or 'statement' to clear the pilots.

FWIW it did state the following about the PIC in the recent Malaysian report "There is no record of him having secured a life insurance policy".

Jouhou wrote:
Y'all keep forgetting there was complete silence from the passengers too. Didn't that plane have satellite phones?


I'm pretty certain that dead people would not be able to use phones ;)
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smaragdz
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Fri Aug 17, 2018 12:32 pm

777Jet wrote:
And these are some of the reasons why it would make no sense at all to leave a suicide note or anything that would make it easy to establish one's guilt. Yet some people continue to not accept this and continue to use the lack of a suicide note or 'statement' to clear the pilots.


Are you actually vilifying people for thinking objectively and raising a very good point? It doesn't work both ways. You can't pick a story (the pilot did it) and cherry pick unverified statements (sim data resembling the flight path calculated by inmarasat) and then vilify people who have opposing views based on other findings.
 
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:30 pm

777Jet wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Supposing the pilot (and it's always the pilot for some reason) actually did have suicidal tendencies, despite all evidence to the contrary


What is "all the evidence" to the contrary?


Testimony from friends and family plus ZERO evidence that he was in fact suicidal.

Maybe something, or a cumulation of things, pushed him over the edge that evening and then he was presented with the perfect opportunity to do something big?


You can't use "maybe" to argue that he 100% did something and at the same time dispute me when I have doubts due to a lack of evidence! That is a failure of rational thinking.

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
... why not just leave a note, say something on the radio, crash into the Petronas Towers, etc. etc. etc.?


I don't know why anybody going to leave a family behind would do that,


And again, you can't logically argue that he is 100% doing this to make a political statement, yet at the same time argue that he wants no-one to know about it for his family's sake. If he is doing this for a cause then BY DEFINITION he values that cause above his own life and those of all his passengers, so by extension the cause must also be more important than some extra money for his family (who are still alive, after all).

You are holding on to mutually exclusive concepts in your efforts to prove a marginally plausible theory while at the same time, and rather bafflingly, claiming that any other more rational possibility makes no sense.

[cut the rest of your post which again had lots of "maybe"s and "who knows" proving your pet theory yet dismissing everything else]
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gzm
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:46 pm

Jouhou wrote:
Also MH 17 happened. I really don't think Russia has a secret grudge against Malaysian Airlines.

Not at all my friend, why should they? A Malaysian plane was used for (as yet) dark purposes.It is China that has every right to hold a grudge against them,no?

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 80):
FWIW it did state the following about the PIC in the recent Malaysian report: " There is no record of him having secured a life-insurance policy"

You understand that this contradicts your arguments, don't you?
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Fri Aug 17, 2018 2:01 pm

gzm wrote:
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 80):
FWIW it did state the following about the PIC in the recent Malaysian report: " There is no record of him having secured a life-insurance policy"

You understand that this contradicts your arguments, don't you?


Thanks, I forgot to mention that.
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Starglider
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Fri Aug 17, 2018 4:13 pm

In the currently unknown scheme of things that occurred during this flight and referring to the Malaysian Safety Investigation Report issued 02 July 2018:
I would have expected more explanation or a correcting statement to the Deferred Defect No. 3, dated 7 Nov. 2013:

" From Daily Engineering Operations Report (DEOR)
- Right engine consumes average 1.5T more fuel per/hour compared to left engine"


The above was also published in the factual information report, issued on the 8th of March 2015. I first thought this must have been a typo to be corrected in a final report due to the exorbitant difference but it has not been changed in the 02 July '18 report. No further technical explanation was given about the nature of this complaint (Indication issue instead of a real consumption issue?) . If this is indeed factual information, how in the world would such a complaint remain open for 4 months? This, in my perception of airline maintenance / operation, would have required immediate action or at least at very short notice.

An actual difference of 1.5T per hour may just be one of the holes in the "Swiss Cheese" in a scenario of other unknown factors resulting in an incapacitated crew. If fuel management were to be left unattended, the RH engine would have flamed out much sooner than currently published, opening up a completely different scenario of where the aircraft came to rest.Something to investigate when the SSFDR has been found and recovered some day.
 
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777Jet
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Sat Aug 18, 2018 12:41 pm

smaragdz wrote:
777Jet wrote:
And these are some of the reasons why it would make no sense at all to leave a suicide note or anything that would make it easy to establish one's guilt. Yet some people continue to not accept this and continue to use the lack of a suicide note or 'statement' to clear the pilots.


Are you actually vilifying people for thinking objectively and raising a very good point? It doesn't work both ways. You can't pick a story (the pilot did it) and cherry pick unverified statements (sim data resembling the flight path calculated by inmarasat) and then vilify people who have opposing views based on other findings.


I am not "vilifying" anybody. I am just replying to people in the same manner that they reply, which is obviously how they expect to be replied to anyway. Replying to others in the same manner that they reply does indeed work both ways. I treat others' opposing views the same way they treat mine.

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
This is the fact that you never seem to accept...

...
smaragdz wrote:
You can't pick a story (the pilot did it) and cherry pick unverified statements (sim data resembling the flight path calculated by inmarasat)


I have written out my version of what I think happened from start to finish, several times. Search for it if you wish. I have not cherry picked unverified statements; I have used the various parts of the flight (and relevant events) that is known about and put it all together so others can see how I think things unfolded. The flight sim data is just one piece of the puzzle. From the change in pilots speaking to ATC, the routine ATC sign off with no mention of any issue, the plane going silent and turning back 3 minutes later, the alleged route flown over FIR / land boundaries, the turn past Penang up the Strait of Malacca, the turn around the tip of Indonesia, just the SatCom coming back online out of all other systems that went offline at IGARI, the flight to nowhere... etc... The earlier FB posts, the Anwar verdict hours before the flight, the opportunity to fly that night, having the most junior MH 777 FO next to you in the cockpit, being on the longest MH 2 crew sector (in terms of fuel)... etc... The deleted flight sim data is just one piece of the puzzle... You can consider the single flight waypoints from 6 weeks earlier / Inmarsat suggested route similarities however you like. Have a good weekend!
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Sat Aug 18, 2018 1:13 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Testimony from friends and family plus ZERO evidence that he was in fact suicidal.


What evidence was there that the EgyptAir990 pilot was suicidal? I'm sure that you will argue that him losing his rights to fly international flights in the future due to inappropriate behavior towards women in hotels on layovers wouldn't make one suicidal? Just because there is not a trail of suicidal tendencies doesn't mean that somebody might not commit suicide at any point. What you seem to forget is that the reason and actions only matter to the individual, not anybody else. It doesn't matter what any of us think. If the one individual has decided to do something for whatever reason, that's all that matters.

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
You can't use "maybe" to argue that he 100% did something and at the same time dispute me when I have doubts due to a lack of evidence! That is a failure of rational thinking.


I have never said that I am 100% certain that the Captain did it. Although I believe that is the most likely scenario by a very long shot. As for the motive, I can only guess based on what is known about him and seeing if things can be linked together - and the Anwar verdict on the evening of the flight combined with his political views expressed on his FB page make me lean towards a political motive. When I said "Maybe something, or a cumulation of things" pushed him over the edge that evening you know very well the maybe something I was referring to was the Anwar verdict, and the culmination of things could have been other issues such as family or whatever culminating with the Anwar verdict.

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
You are holding on to mutually exclusive concepts in your efforts to prove a marginally plausible theory while at the same time, and rather bafflingly, claiming that any other more rational possibility makes no sense.

[cut the rest of your post which again had lots of "maybe"s and "who knows" proving your pet theory yet dismissing everything else]


There is where we will keep disagreeing for now, until at least new information emerges, and that's okay.

IMHO the Captain doing it theory is not a "a marginally plausible theory" and I am not "claiming that any other more rational possibility makes no sense". IMHO the Captain doing it scenario is the most rational scenario - all the other scenarios are "marginally plausible". That is why I offer reason as to why others scenarios don't tick as many boxes IMHO - take the fire scenario for instance - I used some other fire flights such as SR111 and UPS6 as examples of why I think a fire flight was unlikely, or, at least, less likely than the Captain doing it.

I have asked you before; provide your scenario that fits in with what is known about MH370. Go on, offer your scenario that is a "more rational possibility" than the Captain doing it in your opinion. Go on, stop sitting on the fence and just attempting to shoot down other theories. Offer your scenario, otherwise you are just sidetracking this discussion and wasting time.
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Sat Aug 18, 2018 1:30 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
gzm wrote:
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 80):
FWIW it did state the following about the PIC in the recent Malaysian report: " There is no record of him having secured a life-insurance policy"

You understand that this contradicts your arguments, don't you?


Thanks, I forgot to mention that.


My arguments don't contradict each other. The other poster mentioned the possibility of not leaving a suicide note as to not affect an insurance payout to family. And in general, that is a very, very good reason to not leave a suicide note (suicide does indeed void some life insurance payouts). However, that is not a reason for not leaving a suicide note in this particular case as the Captain did not apparently have life insurance. I think the shame on the family was the reason to not leave a note so the life insurance policy or not is irrelevant in this case IMHO (I find it odd that an airline Captain with a family would not have a life insurance policy for his family though?). This was clearly not a 'life insurance job', unlike FedEx 705. I quoted that because it was in the report and as life insurance was discussed, that might as well be known. It doesn't affect the no suicide note reason in my version (the shame to family) regardless. There are also things that do indeed undermine the Captain doing it scenario, such as the SatCom coming back online, but I still discuss that and I will hopefully have more on that soon after a planned meeting very soon. MH370 is important to me and I will discuss anything rational regardless of what scenario it supports or undermines. Like most of you, I just want to know what happened, but I feel the plane will never be found and we will never really get to know what happened with certainty.
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Sat Aug 18, 2018 2:27 pm

777Jet wrote:
My arguments don't contradict each other. (..,,.) However, that is not a reason for not leaving a suicide note in this particular case as the Captain did not apparently have life insurance. I think the shame on the family was the reason to not leave a note so the life insurance policy or not is irrelevant in this case IMHO (I find it odd that an airline Captain with a family would not have a life insurance policy for his family though?). This was clearly not a 'life insurance job', unlike FedEx 705.

My dear friend 777Jet,what more do you need to understand that this man could not imagine that he was destined to die on that fateful flight? I mean he provoked the government, he wore T-shirts with a political message and yet did not fear for his life. He thought he was invulnerable. He must have been a very outgoing and optimistic person and the thought never crossed his mind to take a life insurance...
 
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Sun Aug 19, 2018 3:00 am

Oh gzm, what more do you need to understand that MH370 is far less complicated than you think.

Maybe this thorough article, that pretty much paints a full picture, can help you:

'MH370 pilot’s emotional final farewell?'
By Mike Keane, August 18, 2018
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/i ... ccd059c12f
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gzm
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Sun Aug 19, 2018 6:43 am

Oh 777Jet, why after four years and a half you believe in a theory that has run its circle, and has the flaw that it is so convenient in that it exonerates everybody else and blames it all on one (dead) person? Let's move on!
 
FlyDeltaJetsATL
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Mon Aug 20, 2018 3:22 am

Hi gzm!

gzm wrote:
you believe in a theory that has run its circle, and has the flaw that it is so convenient in that it exonerates everybody else and blames it all on one (dead) person?


Now you are arguing that the theory the provides the most likely and the most rational assessment of what happened based on what is known is 'flawed' because it is "convenient" and indicates a simple probable cause such as 'pilot suicide'? Really? Well, Occam's razor would disagree.

You also just claimed that China is behind the shooting down of MH17. Seriously?

gzm wrote:
Let's move on!


I think that is exactly what you should do, in the direction of the SPYHUNTER thread where conspiracy theories are welcome!

Jesse
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keithball288
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Mon Aug 20, 2018 3:52 am

In my mind I still think it is a pilot suicide because didn't they not long back find the same flight on the pilots flight simulator.
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Mon Aug 20, 2018 12:10 pm

keithball288 wrote:
In my mind I still think it is a pilot suicide because didn't they not long back find the same flight on the pilots flight simulator.


Oh for goodness' sake...
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gzm
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Mon Aug 20, 2018 3:51 pm

FlyDeltaJetsATL wrote:
Now you are arguing that the theory the provides the most likely and the most rational assessment of what happened based on what is known is 'flawed' because it is "convenient" and indicates a simple probable cause such as 'pilot suicide'?

Well, the title of the thread says it all: "France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup". Have you read the title? Why not give it some thought! It means they are not satisfied with simplistic explanations. So,why don't you address your objections to the French instead. If you have nothing to contribute to the conversation you can remain silent.
 
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:32 am

Here is some recent analysis/hypothesis of the last moments of the flight. Apologies if it has already been posted. Let's hope there is a new search soon.

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/new ... -location/
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:21 pm

BirdBrain wrote:
Here is some recent analysis/hypothesis of the last moments of the flight. Apologies if it has already been posted. Let's hope there is a new search soon.

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/new ... -location/


Thanks for that. Although it only seems to say that Boeing's flightpath simulations indicate it may be a little north of the searched area while the University of Western Australia's drift analysis indicates it may be a little south... so not much help really.
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:43 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
BirdBrain wrote:
Here is some recent analysis/hypothesis of the last moments of the flight. Apologies if it has already been posted. Let's hope there is a new search soon.

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/new ... -location/


Thanks for that. Although it only seems to say that Boeing's flightpath simulations indicate it may be a little north of the searched area while the University of Western Australia's drift analysis indicates it may be a little south... so not much help really.

Would be great to have a map to show the "old" searched area and these two new proposals. This is the map presented within the article but it doesn't help much in isolation.

Image

From that article:
Recently one of the world’s most respected oceanographers the University of Western Australia’s Professor Charitha Pattiaratchi emphatically said that MH370 is lying just outside the area that has been searched.

Wow, what a revelation! Is there a scientific definition for "just outside"? :scratchchin:
 
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Erebus
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:53 pm

N14AZ wrote:
From that article:
Recently one of the world’s most respected oceanographers the University of Western Australia’s Professor Charitha Pattiaratchi emphatically said that MH370 is lying just outside the area that has been searched.

Wow, what a revelation! Is there a scientific definition for "just outside"? :scratchchin:


I will say that the chances of finding the wreck outside of the searched area is now 100%. Never had any formal education in oceanography, however. :white:
 
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777Jet
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Re: France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup

Wed Aug 22, 2018 4:21 am

gzm wrote:
FlyDeltaJetsATL wrote:
Now you are arguing that the theory the provides the most likely and the most rational assessment of what happened based on what is known is 'flawed' because it is "convenient" and indicates a simple probable cause such as 'pilot suicide'?

Well, the title of the thread says it all: "France re-opens MH370 investigation amid claims of a Malaysian coverup". Have you read the title? Why not give it some thought! It means they are not satisfied with simplistic explanations.


More likely it means that they are not satisfied with a report that basically dismisses the most likely cause without giving it much consideration. A report in which certain parts contradict each other. This report is almost as bad (or worse?) than Egypt's response to the NTSB's report into EgyptAir 990; Egypt trying to blame the plane and insisting that Egyptians / Muslims don't commit suicide - doing whatever they can to save face. Given that 9M-MRO is still not found, and the data might not be retrievable / usable anyway, Malaysia has no interest in considering any cause that would bring shame to Malaysia / Malaysians / Malaysia Airliners. Why don't you take a trip to KL and see how things work around there?
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