master14225
Topic Author
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Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:12 am

Are there any routes that Air Canada or WestJet could do in the future out of YYZ? Domestic, Transborder, and International? What about the idea of other international carriers coming to YYZ in the near future?
 
YYZatcboy
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:25 am

I wouldn't look at too many new routes for AC/WS. Both have recently said that they are going to be taking capacity out of the market. I would look for route cuts and optimization. Perhaps some flying shifted around. I don't know AC that well but for WS the only things I would be looking for are a capacity purchase and more flights to existing markets to make connections through YYZ vs point to point from smaller stations. (I just read the Q2 WS transcript today and that is basically what they were discussing).
DH1/3/4 MD11/88 L1011 A319/20/21/30/50/80 717 727 735/6/7/8/9 744 762/3 77E/W E40/75/90 CRJ/700/705 CC150
J/S DH8D 736/7/8 763
 
RainerBoeing777
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:44 am

Rio de Janeiro (GIG)
Düsseldorf (DUS)
Tokyo Narita (NRT)
Stockholm (ARN)
Oslo (OSL)
Helsinki (HEL)
Auckland (AKL)
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
williamenglish
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:47 am

First thing that comes to mind, Saudia resuming operations amidst this immature cyber feud.

Could also see Qatar Airways if the bilateral agreement gets amended.

Delta commencing SEA-YYZ could happen to compete with AC.

I'd like see some additional Nordic destinations, whether that be through Rouge or SAS, I think Stockholm ARN and Oslo OSL, one of the two could be good adds as both markets are fairly large and unserved.
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:12 am

The next likely additions are BEG on air Serbia (which they have already applied for, just awaiting the official announcement) and Hong Kong airlines to HKG, which was originally slated to start at the end of October, but is currently up in the air due to the HNA groups financial problems.

Beyond that, WS is slated to announce their winter schedule on Monday, expect nothing crazy, few cuts, few additions, but nothing really earth shattering. The big news from WS will be the 789 coming in early 2019. There will likely be a lot of YYZ flying, WS strategy right now is to consolidate a lot of international flying at YYZ, they generate more revenue there than the rest of the country try combined.

AC's long haul expansion is slowing, I have heard JNB/LOS are being considered, but beyond that, unless they get more planes, which will come, but not immediately, there won't be much, just gradual consolidation. As it stands, their LFs are really strong and yield is consistently increasing. They are doing well to keep the expansion moderated and work on really developing what routes they have and adding in more codeshare a where necessary. Big growth area this year has been Germany, especially FRA. Could potentially see either a LH upguage, or AC go to 2x daily 77W (currently is 1x 77w and 1x 789/77L). Flights over the next week are heavily oversold. Also wouldn't surprise me to see BOM go daily year round, and DEL upguage. DEL-YYZ is one of the largest NA-India routes, last year, aside from ACs daily 789 and 9Ws daily 77W, 77000 pax took indirect routes (EK, LH...).
 
SyracuseAvGeek
Posts: 442
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:02 pm

Would be surprised to see YYZ-GRR with either the Beech1900D or a CRJ
Last edited by SyracuseAvGeek on Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"I haven't been everywhere yet, but it's on my list."
 
SyracuseAvGeek
Posts: 442
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:37 pm

Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:02 pm

Wouldn't be surprised to see YYZ-GRR with either the Beech1900D or a CRJ
"I haven't been everywhere yet, but it's on my list."
 
DobboDobbo
Posts: 853
Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2016 1:02 am

Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:06 pm

I'm surprised there is no apparent move to AC mainline between YYZ-MAN. There is currently a seasonal Rouge service, which would presumably be redeployed, and there is competition from TS all year. The main question is whether the market is there in the winter months, and if not whether AC would consider a flexible schedule to cater for this.
 
a350lover
Posts: 715
Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2017 11:21 am

Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:45 pm

Iberia to Madrid at some point maybe?
Canada seems to be on the radar of the Spanish carrier, and YYZ seems option number 1;)
 
opticalilyushin
Posts: 678
Joined: Tue Oct 22, 2013 6:35 pm

Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 1:38 pm

Belfast on either an AC/Westjet 737 or Transat A321
 
sixtyseven
Posts: 807
Joined: Thu Nov 16, 2006 9:42 am

Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 1:49 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
The next likely additions are BEG on air Serbia (which they have already applied for, just awaiting the official announcement) and Hong Kong airlines to HKG, which was originally slated to start at the end of October, but is currently up in the air due to the HNA groups financial problems.

Beyond that, WS is slated to announce their winter schedule on Monday, expect nothing crazy, few cuts, few additions, but nothing really earth shattering. The big news from WS will be the 789 coming in early 2019. There will likely be a lot of YYZ flying, WS strategy right now is to consolidate a lot of international flying at YYZ, they generate more revenue there than the rest of the country try combined.

AC's long haul expansion is slowing, I have heard JNB/LOS are being considered, but beyond that, unless they get more planes, which will come, but not immediately, there won't be much, just gradual consolidation. As it stands, their LFs are really strong and yield is consistently increasing. They are doing well to keep the expansion moderated and work on really developing what routes they have and adding in more codeshare a where necessary. Big growth area this year has been Germany, especially FRA. Could potentially see either a LH upguage, or AC go to 2x daily 77W (currently is 1x 77w and 1x 789/77L). Flights over the next week are heavily oversold. Also wouldn't surprise me to see BOM go daily year round, and DEL upguage. DEL-YYZ is one of the largest NA-India routes, last year, aside from ACs daily 789 and 9Ws daily 77W, 77000 pax took indirect routes (EK, LH...).



JNB? That’s been imminent since 1992. Won’t happen.

No offence to you meant at all but what’s with the hard on for JNB? Who goes there? People have been pumping this stock for decades. I figure if it’s such a huge destination, more carriers would go there, no little ole AC.

The rest of your AC predictions seem bang on. Their expansion was large, fast, successful. I think we’re now looking at a tinkering, perfecting model now.
Stand-by for new ATIS message......
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 1:59 pm

DobboDobbo wrote:
I'm surprised there is no apparent move to AC mainline between YYZ-MAN. There is currently a seasonal Rouge service, which would presumably be redeployed, and there is competition from TS all year. The main question is whether the market is there in the winter months, and if not whether AC would consider a flexible schedule to cater for this.


I could see something like that happening if they order A321NeoLR or the eventual 797. Their biggest problem going forward beyond 2019 is their smallest widebody is 250 seats, which is still a lot to fill. I don't know that MAN has the demand to YYZ to support that.
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 2:03 pm

a350lover wrote:
Iberia to Madrid at some point maybe?
Canada seems to be on the radar of the Spanish carrier, and YYZ seems option number 1;)


They actually announced YYZ when they announced SFO, but for whatever reason, never started.
 
raylee67
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 2:24 pm

AC and AC Rouge seem to be doing a quite successful push to Europe, with even Bucharest and Zagreb being served starting this summer. So may be we will see them venturing into Kyiv? And what about Barcelona? Seems BCN is a large and popular tourist destination missing in the network. Any chance of Athens? There is a large Greek population in Toronto and it is probably viable at least as a summer seasonal.

Don't see much happening in Asia from YYZ for AC. Manila and Ho Chi Minh probably have enough passengers but both would be low yielding. Unless AC transfers a pair of 788 to Rouge, I don't see those destinations working out from YYZ direct with AC.
319/20/21 332/33 342/43/45 351 388 707 717 732/36/3G/38/39 74R/42/43/44/4E/48 757 762/63 772/7L/73/7W 788/89 D10 M80 135/40/45 175/90 DH1/4 CRJ/R7 L10
AY LH OU SR BA FI
AA DL UA NW AC CP WS FL NK PD
CI NH SQ KA CX JL BR OZ TG KE CA CZ NZ JQ RS
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 2:31 pm

raylee67 wrote:
AC and AC Rouge seem to be doing a quite successful push to Europe, with even Bucharest and Zagreb being served starting this summer. So may be we will see them venturing into Kyiv? And what about Barcelona? Seems BCN is a large and popular tourist destination missing in the network. Any chance of Athens? There is a large Greek population in Toronto and it is probably viable at least as a summer seasonal.

Don't see much happening in Asia from YYZ for AC. Manila and Ho Chi Minh probably have enough passengers but both would be low yielding. Unless AC transfers a pair of 788 to Rouge, I don't see those destinations working out from YYZ direct with AC.


Most of the routes you mentionned are already flown.

Rouge already flies YYZ-BCN and YYZ-ATH (up to daily Rouge 767)

UIA already flies YYZ-KBP (KYIV) (2-3x weekly 767)

PAL already flies YYZ-MNL (5x weekly 77W)
 
timberwolf24
Posts: 506
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 2:36 pm

If WN ever starts service to Canada, I could see YYZ-MDW.
Living in LA, ORD/MDW will always be home!
 
behramjee
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 2:52 pm

LOS and ACC combined in 2017 saw 52,000 passengers fly to/from YYZ but I doubt AC would experiment with that region until the outcome of the Nigerian federal elections in Feb 2019.

Average fare YYZ LOS is higher than DEL plus it’s 3-4 hours shorter flight but market demand is 10 times smaller !

As far as JNB goes it cannot be flown nonstop both ways hence the only viable options are via ACC or LOS provided the bilaterals allow it. Other out of the box options for JNB can be via GVA/CPH/BRU.
 
mpsrent
Posts: 123
Joined: Thu Apr 27, 2006 3:49 am

Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 2:53 pm

DobboDobbo wrote:
I'm surprised there is no apparent move to AC mainline between YYZ-MAN. There is currently a seasonal Rouge service, which would presumably be redeployed, and there is competition from TS all year. The main question is whether the market is there in the winter months, and if not whether AC would consider a flexible schedule to cater for this.


I agree. Other than Rouge and TS, to get a mainline carrier you must fly indirect i.e. BA through Heathrow.
 
sixtyseven
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:31 pm

behramjee wrote:
LOS and ACC combined in 2017 saw 52,000 passengers fly to/from YYZ but I doubt AC would experiment with that region until the outcome of the Nigerian federal elections in Feb 2019.

Average fare YYZ LOS is higher than DEL plus it’s 3-4 hours shorter flight but market demand is 10 times smaller !

As far as JNB goes it cannot be flown nonstop both ways hence the only viable options are via ACC or LOS provided the bilaterals allow it. Other out of the box options for JNB can be via GVA/CPH/BRU.


ACC and LOS were potential markets that AC mentioned as possibilities prior to the 787 EIS. They have not been mentioned since which makes me think they have been shelved or fallen down the depth chart of possibilities. They also mentioned Moscow, Manila, and I think even Bangkok at the time. Those also seem to have fallen by the wayside.
Stand-by for new ATIS message......
 
SCQ83
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:39 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
a350lover wrote:
Iberia to Madrid at some point maybe?
Canada seems to be on the radar of the Spanish carrier, and YYZ seems option number 1;)


They actually announced YYZ when they announced SFO, but for whatever reason, never started.


Iberia never announced YYZ.

They announced back in 2014 intentions to serve (among others) YYZ, YUL and PHL.

http://aviacionaldia.com/2014/05/iberia ... nto-y.html

That was at the time of the launch of the "new Iberia". Ever since they have resumed some long-haul routes they chopped during the IB/Spanish crisis (such as MVD or SDQ, like the article mentions), opened new routes (like NRT, SFO or PVG), increased frequencies in well established routes (like SCL, EZE or MEX) and started the LEVEL experiment in BCN with Iberia planes.

Iberia has received a few long-haul planes (including the first A350) but their resources are not infinite. I reckon YYZ (and YUL) will come in due time; it is just a question of priorities. I.e. better start PVG (which started the same season as China Eastern), NRT (unserved) or SFO (to avoid Norwegian starting MAD-OAK). Air Canada has been serving MAD for quite a while with limited number of frequencies, so probably Canada can wait.
 
NCAD95
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:46 pm

WS on YQG-YYZ
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:58 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:
a350lover wrote:
Iberia to Madrid at some point maybe?
Canada seems to be on the radar of the Spanish carrier, and YYZ seems option number 1;)


They actually announced YYZ when they announced SFO, but for whatever reason, never started.


Iberia never announced YYZ.

They announced back in 2014 intentions to serve (among others) YYZ, YUL and PHL.

http://aviacionaldia.com/2014/05/iberia ... nto-y.html

That was at the time of the launch of the "new Iberia". Ever since they have resumed some long-haul routes they chopped during the IB/Spanish crisis (such as MVD or SDQ, like the article mentions), opened new routes (like NRT, SFO or PVG), increased frequencies in well established routes (like SCL, EZE or MEX) and started the LEVEL experiment in BCN with Iberia planes.

Iberia has received a few long-haul planes (including the first A350) but their resources are not infinite. I reckon YYZ (and YUL) will come in due time; it is just a question of priorities. I.e. better start PVG (which started the same season as China Eastern), NRT (unserved) or SFO (to avoid Norwegian starting MAD-OAK). Air Canada has been serving MAD for quite a while with limited number of frequencies, so probably Canada can wait.


There was a subsequent announcement of intention to this one, probably circa 2016 if memory serves me correctly.

Regardless, I honestly can’t see it at this point, AC seems to have the market covered, and with WS gravitating towards SkyTeam, and away from IAG/Oneworld, it’ll be harder to fill. That, I’m addition to BCN which has a ton of YYZ service means that a huge source of connection opportunities is not really valid.
 
hynithuchi
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:10 pm

behramjee wrote:
LOS and ACC combined in 2017 saw 52,000 passengers fly to/from YYZ but I doubt AC would experiment with that region until the outcome of the Nigerian federal elections in Feb 2019.

Average fare YYZ LOS is higher than DEL plus it’s 3-4 hours shorter flight but market demand is 10 times smaller !

As far as JNB goes it cannot be flown nonstop both ways hence the only viable options are via ACC or LOS provided the bilaterals allow it. Other out of the box options for JNB can be via GVA/CPH/BRU.

I guess you mean ZRH instead of GVA as GVAa hasn't had flights to South Africa since 1996 I I don't expect to see any even in a medium term future.
 
SCQ83
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:13 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
There was a subsequent announcement of intention to this one, probably circa 2016 if memory serves me correctly.

Regardless, I honestly can’t see it at this point, AC seems to have the market covered, and with WS gravitating towards SkyTeam, and away from IAG/Oneworld, it’ll be harder to fill. That, I’m addition to BCN which has a ton of YYZ service means that a huge source of connection opportunities is not really valid.


BCN is not a traditional hub other than Vueling. I don't get your point.

I imagine Iberia thought about YYZ (and YUL) for connections to Southern European / Northern African countries with major VFR links to Canada: Morocco, Algeria, France or Portugal. And of course to funnel Canadian tourists to places like Italy, Greece or Israel.

I am a bit sceptical about two carriers on MAD-YYZ because Spain and Canada do not have a lot of links other than tourism on both directions (I also reckon AC gets quite a few Spain-US connections). It just doesn't have the business or VFR links that nearby countries have. On the other hand, for instance Air Transat even flies YUL-AGP, so there must Canadians travelling to holiday destinations in Spain (SVQ, VLC, ALC, IBZ, PMI, LPA, TFN, BIO, SCQ...) other than AGP or BCN and Iberia would be useful for that. Also Iberia has the advantage of being part of IAG, so they could always fill seats with "leftovers" from BA on LHR-YYZ / LHR-YUL.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:17 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Auckland (AKL)

That would be very interesting, particularly if done in a JV with NZ.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:18 pm

With new AC routes to DUB and SNN, what about BFS too?

Cheers,

C.
 
raylee67
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:29 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
raylee67 wrote:
AC and AC Rouge seem to be doing a quite successful push to Europe, with even Bucharest and Zagreb being served starting this summer. So may be we will see them venturing into Kyiv? And what about Barcelona? Seems BCN is a large and popular tourist destination missing in the network. Any chance of Athens? There is a large Greek population in Toronto and it is probably viable at least as a summer seasonal.

Don't see much happening in Asia from YYZ for AC. Manila and Ho Chi Minh probably have enough passengers but both would be low yielding. Unless AC transfers a pair of 788 to Rouge, I don't see those destinations working out from YYZ direct with AC.


Most of the routes you mentionned are already flown.

Rouge already flies YYZ-BCN and YYZ-ATH (up to daily Rouge 767)

UIA already flies YYZ-KBP (KYIV) (2-3x weekly 767)

PAL already flies YYZ-MNL (5x weekly 77W)


Yes, I am aware of UIA and PAL on KBP and MNL, but the original post was asking about AC and WS specifically. So I was referring to that. Didn't know AC Rouge is already flying to BCN and ATH though.

Note the question "Are there any routes that Air Canada or WestJet could do in the future out of YYZ?"
319/20/21 332/33 342/43/45 351 388 707 717 732/36/3G/38/39 74R/42/43/44/4E/48 757 762/63 772/7L/73/7W 788/89 D10 M80 135/40/45 175/90 DH1/4 CRJ/R7 L10
AY LH OU SR BA FI
AA DL UA NW AC CP WS FL NK PD
CI NH SQ KA CX JL BR OZ TG KE CA CZ NZ JQ RS
 
Thenoflyzone
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:34 pm

raylee67 wrote:
AC and AC Rouge seem to be doing a quite successful push to Europe, with even Bucharest and Zagreb being served starting this summer. So may be we will see them venturing into Kyiv? And what about Barcelona? Seems BCN is a large and popular tourist destination missing in the network. Any chance of Athens? There is a large Greek population in Toronto and it is probably viable at least as a summer seasonal.


Do you live in a cave? ATH and BCN were literally some of the first European destinations of Rouge. Both are served from YYZ and YUL.
us Air Traffic Controllers have a good record, we haven't left one up there yet !!
 
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jbpdx
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:41 pm

How about year round to Portland instead of just May-October?
 
bmacleod
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 5:20 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Tokyo Narita (NRT)
Rio De Janeiro (GIG)


As far as I know, AC currently operates this route YYZ-NRT unless it's been recently cancelled.

AC previously operated YYZ- GIG now codeshares through UA and CM.
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus
 
FlyAA
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 5:45 pm

How about RJ service to OKC and TUL?
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 5:51 pm

bmacleod wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Tokyo Narita (NRT)
Rio De Janeiro (GIG)


As far as I know, AC currently operates this route YYZ-NRT unless it's been recently cancelled.

AC previously operated YYZ- GIG now codeshares through UA and CM.


The route became YYZ-YYC-NRT after they opened YUL-NRT. YYZ-HND remains however.
 
bmacleod
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:05 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
bmacleod wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Tokyo Narita (NRT)
Rio De Janeiro (GIG)


As far as I know, AC currently operates this route YYZ-NRT unless it's been recently cancelled.

AC previously operated YYZ- GIG now codeshares through UA and CM.


The route became YYZ-YYC-NRT after they opened YUL-NRT. YYZ-HND remains however.


The wiki page for YYZ has YYZ-NRT but does not specify it as 1 stopover.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto_Pearson_International_Airport#Airlines_and_destinations

Still market demand must be very strong for AC to fly from YYZ to both airports in Tokyo...
Last edited by bmacleod on Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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N592NW
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:06 pm

SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
Wouldn't be surprised to see YYZ-GRR with either the Beech1900D or a CRJ
FlyAA wrote:
How about RJ service to OKC and TUL?
These three cities all have similar metropolitan populations, but GRR is a lot closer. YYZ-GRR was served 2008-2013 twice daily with beech1900s. With the better economy, GRR service could return, but I doubt service to Oklahoma would happen anytime soon. It really depends if AC makes a push into medium sized US cities again.
 
YangFeng
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:08 pm

What about CA PEK-YYZ?
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:29 pm

YangFeng wrote:
What about CA PEK-YYZ?


HU flies PEK-YYZ, under the one carrier per route policy in China, CA cannot serve the route.
 
LH658
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:47 pm

If Air Canada Rouge has some 787, I could see them flying to Islamabad or Lahore.
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:00 pm

LH658 wrote:
If Air Canada Rouge has some 787, I could see them flying to Islamabad or Lahore.

With Saudia gone, PIA might benefit from reduced competition, I know Saudia was a popular route people took to Pakistan. PIA can easily go to the 77W to make up for it. Not sure AC or any Canadian carrier would try though given the security concerns.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:07 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:
I'm surprised there is no apparent move to AC mainline between YYZ-MAN. There is currently a seasonal Rouge service, which would presumably be redeployed, and there is competition from TS all year. The main question is whether the market is there in the winter months, and if not whether AC would consider a flexible schedule to cater for this.


I could see something like that happening if they order A321NeoLR or the eventual 797. Their biggest problem going forward beyond 2019 is their smallest widebody is 250 seats, which is still a lot to fill. I don't know that MAN has the demand to YYZ to support that.


I believe there is the volume, certainly in the summer months (17,630 passengers in June 2018 - almost 300 ppdew) the question is whether AC mainline would fill the premium cabin.

The other issue is whether AC would be interested in a route which has seasonal fluctuations - this may be where an A321 / MoM type aircraft could help (if AC were not confident about market stimulation, ongoing connections etc).
 
LH658
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:52 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
LH658 wrote:
If Air Canada Rouge has some 787, I could see them flying to Islamabad or Lahore.

With Saudia gone, PIA might benefit from reduced competition, I know Saudia was a popular route people took to Pakistan. PIA can easily go to the 77W to make up for it. Not sure AC or any Canadian carrier would try though given the security concerns.


I wonder how long they will be gone for, they will pause the route on August 13th, Yes PIA actually does well in YYZ, i believe they are 5 to 6 times a week. Then again EK and Etihad filled some of the gap by now able to fly to 5 times a week. Though I can see Rouge flying to Islamabad, or Lahore, Primarily Islamabad, it much safer, and they have new modern airport.
 
Skyblue39
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:54 pm

DobboDobbo wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:
I'm surprised there is no apparent move to AC mainline between YYZ-MAN. There is currently a seasonal Rouge service, which would presumably be redeployed, and there is competition from TS all year. The main question is whether the market is there in the winter months, and if not whether AC would consider a flexible schedule to cater for this.


I could see something like that happening if they order A321NeoLR or the eventual 797. Their biggest problem going forward beyond 2019 is their smallest widebody is 250 seats, which is still a lot to fill. I don't know that MAN has the demand to YYZ to support that.


I believe there is the volume, certainly in the summer months (17,630 passengers in June 2018 - almost 300 ppdew) the question is whether AC mainline would fill the premium cabin.

The other issue is whether AC would be interested in a route which has seasonal fluctuations - this may be where an A321 / MoM type aircraft could help (if AC were not confident about market stimulation, ongoing connections etc).


Before AC will consider going mainline on YYZ-MAN, they will have to try going year round on the route first with Rouge.
 
master14225
Topic Author
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 9:10 pm

I have a feeling that ANA might come w NRT-YYZ once they get the additional slots at NRT in 2020 since AC serves YYZ-HND. With the ANA route, they can connect on AC flights to Eastern Canada and US Transborder destinations. Similar to what they do on NRT-ORD & HND-ORD with UA.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Sat Aug 11, 2018 9:29 pm

Skyblue39 wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:

I could see something like that happening if they order A321NeoLR or the eventual 797. Their biggest problem going forward beyond 2019 is their smallest widebody is 250 seats, which is still a lot to fill. I don't know that MAN has the demand to YYZ to support that.


I believe there is the volume, certainly in the summer months (17,630 passengers in June 2018 - almost 300 ppdew) the question is whether AC mainline would fill the premium cabin.

The other issue is whether AC would be interested in a route which has seasonal fluctuations - this may be where an A321 / MoM type aircraft could help (if AC were not confident about market stimulation, ongoing connections etc).


Before AC will consider going mainline on YYZ-MAN, they will have to try going year round on the route first with Rouge.


You may well be right - but isn't that against the concept of Rouge? You'll know better than I - what was AC's development trajectory at DUB?
 
YKF
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:36 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
The next likely additions are BEG on air Serbia (which they have already applied for, just awaiting the official announcement) and Hong Kong airlines to HKG, which was originally slated to start at the end of October, but is currently up in the air due to the HNA groups financial problems.

Beyond that, WS is slated to announce their winter schedule on Monday, expect nothing crazy, few cuts, few additions, but nothing really earth shattering. The big news from WS will be the 789 coming in early 2019. There will likely be a lot of YYZ flying, WS strategy right now is to consolidate a lot of international flying at YYZ, they generate more revenue there than the rest of the country try combined.

AC's long haul expansion is slowing, I have heard JNB/LOS are being considered, but beyond that, unless they get more planes, which will come, but not immediately, there won't be much, just gradual consolidation. As it stands, their LFs are really strong and yield is consistently increasing. They are doing well to keep the expansion moderated and work on really developing what routes they have and adding in more codeshare a where necessary. Big growth area this year has been Germany, especially FRA. Could potentially see either a LH upguage, or AC go to 2x daily 77W (currently is 1x 77w and 1x 789/77L). Flights over the next week are heavily oversold. Also wouldn't surprise me to see BOM go daily year round, and DEL upguage. DEL-YYZ is one of the largest NA-India routes, last year, aside from ACs daily 789 and 9Ws daily 77W, 77000 pax took indirect routes (EK, LH...).


What would constitute the most likely upguage between YYZ and FRA? Could we see LH send over a 748 or 388 ( or even replace their 1x daily 744 with 2x daily a333), or would AC send 2x daily 77Ws (instead of the current 1x daily 77W and 1x daily 789/77L)? I'm also wondering whether LH will make their YYZ-MUC service year-round.
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:22 am

YKF wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:
The next likely additions are BEG on air Serbia (which they have already applied for, just awaiting the official announcement) and Hong Kong airlines to HKG, which was originally slated to start at the end of October, but is currently up in the air due to the HNA groups financial problems.

Beyond that, WS is slated to announce their winter schedule on Monday, expect nothing crazy, few cuts, few additions, but nothing really earth shattering. The big news from WS will be the 789 coming in early 2019. There will likely be a lot of YYZ flying, WS strategy right now is to consolidate a lot of international flying at YYZ, they generate more revenue there than the rest of the country try combined.

AC's long haul expansion is slowing, I have heard JNB/LOS are being considered, but beyond that, unless they get more planes, which will come, but not immediately, there won't be much, just gradual consolidation. As it stands, their LFs are really strong and yield is consistently increasing. They are doing well to keep the expansion moderated and work on really developing what routes they have and adding in more codeshare a where necessary. Big growth area this year has been Germany, especially FRA. Could potentially see either a LH upguage, or AC go to 2x daily 77W (currently is 1x 77w and 1x 789/77L). Flights over the next week are heavily oversold. Also wouldn't surprise me to see BOM go daily year round, and DEL upguage. DEL-YYZ is one of the largest NA-India routes, last year, aside from ACs daily 789 and 9Ws daily 77W, 77000 pax took indirect routes (EK, LH...).


What would constitute the most likely upguage between YYZ and FRA? Could we see LH send over a 748 or 388 ( or even replace their 1x daily 744 with 2x daily a333), or would AC send 2x daily 77Ws (instead of the current 1x daily 77W and 1x daily 789/77L)? I'm also wondering whether LH will make their YYZ-MUC service year-round.


The answer to that question, if it exists, is well above my pay grade. Let's break it down for speculative purposes:

The 748 and 744 have very similar seat counts, so that wouldn't really translate to much change. The A380 would be the logical upguage.

2x A333 from LH would run into the issue of gate slots, not extremely practical either.

AC could bump up to 2x 77W on the route, which would boost Y seats available, but not premium seats, so while a reasonable option, there could probably stand to be a few more premium seats available, especially given Saudia's abrupt ending of service, which has already had a huge effect, and Air Berlin going bankrupt, when this year's schedules were built, that was not expected.

Further, the issue becomes sourcing a 77W, which aren't in high supply at the moment. The only potential route I could see it moving off of would be Zurich (from my observations of loads based on random sample days, the lowest LF 77W route), though even then, that route needs at least a 77L (J has been essentially full every time I have checked) which probably won't be available either (YYZ-YVR-SYD, YYZ-HKG and YYZ-BOM will likely take them all, provided my suspecton that BOM goes daily occurs). So where we stand, it's going to be a challenge.

So that leaves us with only one apparent solution, LH 380. The question now is does YYZ justify it vs any other route it currently serves. As it stands, YYZ-MUC is slated to bump up to the A359 next summer as far as I know, though of course that can change. That is still raindrops in the ocean, but it's a start.

Final dark horse, eurowings. They could use a DUS-YYZ to help alleviate the strain. 3x weekly A333/343 service would provide an additional 900 weekly seats which would certainly do the trick. Even a 2x weekly service could probably do the trick. DUS-YYZ is a market that could probably support a service alone on O/D as it once did. The connections both air and land based would fill the back end, and Eurowings low cost base would make it easier to sustain on lower yeilds, and finally, for business travellers, it is still an improvement over the current system, any additional cities served, even if infrequently means avoiding a possible connection, even if only one way on the trip. Win-win.
 
bunumuring
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:54 am

Hey guys,
A nonstop YYZ-SYD service would require a Project Sunrise-type airliner, wouldn't it? I can't see there being enough demand for such a service and think that flights via Vancouver would be sufficient to satiate the market.
But it would be a cool connection to have : eastern Canada to eastern Australia nonstop! And the two Canadian families I know living near me would definitely use it as they are from the Ontario area and hate transiting Vancouver!
Cheers
Bunumuring
I just wanna live while I'm alive!
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:07 am

In terms of sourcing 777s for Air Canada, there are three B77Ls that will soon become available for lease once Etihad completes the sale of A6-LRA/B/C to lessor Altavair AirFinance. Granted, they probably wouldn't be ready until spring 2019, but at 12 years old and not many customers, I can't see these lease rates being that high. There may be some B77Ws becoming available used next year, once CX begins to return early sale-leasebacks to lessors, as well as some EK and BR examples. Air Lease Corporation may also have a few end-of-the-line B77Ws on its order book awaiting placement.

As for routes...with B789s coming online for AT, although I'm not sure if they're B763 replacements, I have to wonder if they'll try YYZ-CMN with a B763 to start with the possibility of an up-gauge to a B788. (AT serves YUL daily.) As for ET, I have to wonder if they could reroute their ADD flights via LFW, transporting oil industry people (they have a codeshare with Air Canada). Currently, their westbound flight operates via a tech stop in Dublin, while the return is nonstop. The idea is that executives from the prairies could connect in YYZ (from YYC, Air Canada operates a veritable hourly shuttle) and access western Africa to help the oil industry.
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:27 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
In terms of sourcing 777s for Air Canada, there are three B77Ls that will soon become available for lease once Etihad completes the sale of A6-LRA/B/C to lessor Altavair AirFinance. Granted, they probably wouldn't be ready until spring 2019, but at 12 years old and not many customers, I can't see these lease rates being that high. There may be some B77Ws becoming available used next year, once CX begins to return early sale-leasebacks to lessors, as well as some EK and BR examples. Air Lease Corporation may also have a few end-of-the-line B77Ws on its order book awaiting placement.

As for routes...with B789s coming online for AT, although I'm not sure if they're B763 replacements, I have to wonder if they'll try YYZ-CMN with a B763 to start with the possibility of an up-gauge to a B788. (AT serves YUL daily.) As for ET, I have to wonder if they could reroute their ADD flights via LFW, transporting oil industry people (they have a codeshare with Air Canada). Currently, their westbound flight operates via a tech stop in Dublin, while the return is nonstop. The idea is that executives from the prairies could connect in YYZ (from YYC, Air Canada operates a veritable hourly shuttle) and access western Africa to help the oil industry.


No doubt there are options moving forward, but nothing that will be available for their timeline, but we will see. AC certainly has strained themselves recently in terms of fleet expansion, and there is only so much capital to continue down this path. They have 6 new widebodies and 19 new narrow bodies arriving next year, and are replacing the final 5 767s. So that puts us at +1 widebody, (2 789s and 4 A333s are coming). That leaves potential for another route or two, or frequency increases. There aren't many routes that are less than daily, so the frequency addition seems logical. One additional frame should give them the ability to move another couple routes to daily.

Moving into 2020, I could see another 77W or two coming, realistically, they could definately use another 400 seater, there are a couple routes that could stand to be upguage. Of course, I am an optimist and a believer in consistent growth and market coverage, so I definately am looking for reasons for them to make these moves, not that they don't exist, but I will admit that I bias my personal analysis on looking for justifications.

As for AT, they are moving to double daily to YUL next year, not sure if they have the slack.

ET was supposed to go non stop both ways to YYZ, not sure what the status of that is at this point.

Generally speaking however, it should be a really interesting end to the year, with a number of significant long haul expansions coming this winter, and the giant potential of WestJet 787 routes from YYZ to be announced in October. Wouldn't surprise me if we cracked 10% international traffic growth YoY, or at least got pretty close, and repeat it next year. I can see YYZ passing JFK for the highest international pax traffic number in the Americas within the next 5 years. While YYZ certainly doesn't have nearly the same impact EWR and LGA have, I still think that would be one hell of an achievement for an airport not located in the center of the world (read USA).
 
KLSMB
Posts: 79
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Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:40 am

Probably daydreaming here, but I would like to see AC start YYZ-YFB.

In 2010, AC had daily YUL-YOW-YFB service, but it was discontinued after just over a year. At the time, the Iqaluit airport terminal was inadequately small, and AC faced tough competition from 5T and 7F, who were both flying YOW-YFB as well. Since then, 5T and 7F are merging into a single airline, Iqaluit has opened a brand new (and much bigger) airport terminal, and YYZ has grown immensely. It's a specialized market, but I think AC could do very well with the connections available at YYZ as well as freight heading up to YFB. AC stated in news reports at the time the YUL-YOW-YFB route was cancelled that they would consider launching service to YFB again in the future. I think a 3 or 4-weekly YYZ-YFB on a CRJ-900 would be a great add for them, and would be able to carry considerable freight.

I would also like to see AC mainline service resume on YYZ-MEX. They recently moved YVR-MEX back to mainline service, and I'm hoping that it's just a matter of time until YYZ mainline service comes back on the route. MEX is a market that I think AC could aggressively target for international connecting traffic through YYZ. MEX is one of the few markets that the ME3 are unable to exploit because of it's geographic location and elevation, and there must be more than just holiday travellers on the route given that NH, CZ, and HU have all recently added service to MEX. I don't have access to the numbers, but I've always thought that MEX seems out of place on the Rouge route map.

A few other possibilities :
YYZ-ARN (AC or possibly SK)
YYZ-NRT (NH, possibly WS with the 787)
YYZ-GEO (Rouge)
Last edited by KLSMB on Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:56 am, edited 3 times in total.
 
whywhyzee
Posts: 1014
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2016 3:12 am

Re: Future Toronto Pearson YYZ Routes

Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:51 am

KLSMB wrote:
Probably daydreaming here, but I would like to see AC start YYZ-YFB.

In 2010, AC had daily YUL-YOW-YFB service, but it was discontinued after just over a year. At the time, the Iqaluit airport terminal was inadequately small, and AC faced tough competition from 5T and 7F, who were both flying YOW-YFB as well. Since then, 5T and 7F are merging into a single airline, Iqaluit has opened a brand new (and much bigger) airport terminal, and YYZ has grown immensely. It's a specialized market, but I think AC could do very well with the connections available at YYZ as well as freight heading up to YFB. AC stated in news reports at the time the YUL-YOW-YFB route was cancelled that they would consider launching service to YFB again in the future. I think a 3 or 4-weekly YYZ-YFB on a CRJ-900 would be a great add for them, and would be able to carry considerable freight.

I would also like to see AC mainline service resume on YYZ-MEX. They recently moved YVR-MEX back to mainline service, and I'm hoping that it's just a matter of time until YYZ mainline service comes back on the route. MEX is a market that I think AC could aggressively target for international connecting traffic through YYZ. MEX is one of the few markets that the ME3 are unable to exploit because of it's geographic location and elevation, and there must be more than just holiday travellers on the route given that NH, CZ, and HU have all recently added service to MEX. I don't have access to the numbers, but I've always thought that MEX seems out of place on the Rouge route map.

A few other possibilities :
YYZ-ARN (AC or possibly SK)
YYZ-NRT (NH, possibly WS with the 787)
YYZ-GEO (Rouge)


All very good points, though YYZ-GEO already exists, fly Jamaica runs it with 763s.

Only other things I see are YFB being a challenge due to the lack of the right airplane. There aren't any CRJ 900s based out of YYZ currently, and that would likely be too long for a Q400. E175 may make it, but rumour has it they aren't great in the cold, which is definately an issue for YFB.

While MEX probably justifies mainline service, I don't think they have the right mainline type right now. It's currently a daily 763 and a daily A319. Peak times, I have seen it usually operating as a daily 763 and daily A321. To replace the 763 expeciakly would be quite a challenge, even 2x mainline A321s wouldn't have the same capacity, which could prove a challenge, especially considering how fast that market is growing. I also don't know if a mainline 787 or A330 is the right product either, that is a lot of plane for a 4 and a half hour route, unless they can get a third daily, I'm not sure it'll change any time soon.

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