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planecane
Posts: 1585
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: Southwest grounding many airplanes.

Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:01 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
WN has openly stated that ~35% of its pax are business folks. Is that number horrible? No, absolutely not. But it is well below their competitors...and there's a simple reason.

WN has an on-time problem. Sorry, that's an obvious one. The problem starts with scheduling far less time on the ground than their peers - and F9 is finding out the same thing. WN has at least gotten somewhat good at turning their planes around in 30-45 minutes (F9 has not at all) but the problem is when you schedule so little time, problems pile up.


Is WN markedly worse than the legacies when regional operations are included? That does not seem to be the case generally.

And, WN often has nonstops where other carriers do not. If I take a nonstop that is 70 percent likely to be on time, I have a 70 percent chance of arriving on time. If I take a connecting flight on which both halves of the itinerary are 80 percent likely to be on time and the outcomes are independent of each other (a bit of a questionable assumption, I realize), I only have a 64 percent chance of arriving on time.


As far as connecting goes, the first flight can be late and not effect your arrival time as long as you make the connection. If both flights are 80% on time but 95% of the time you can make the connection even if the first flight is late, then you'll have a 76% chance to arrive on time at the destination.

I'd much rather take a nonstop that is an hour late 90% of the time vs. connecting where there is a risk of missing the connection and either having to take a much later flight or not being able to continue until the next day.
 
airzona11
Posts: 1784
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:44 am

Re: Southwest grounding many airplanes.

Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:06 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
But as I said in the follow up post, it doesn't matter. Like you said, they make their money through their niche and have a great % of leisure travel. But does that mean I don't think their operation is a circus? Not at all


Niche? They are the largest domestic airline in the largest domestic market in the world. A decent percent of all business travelers that fly, fly Southwest. Not sure where the circus art comes in.
 
gwrudolph
Posts: 438
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2008 3:46 pm

Re: Southwest grounding many airplanes.

Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:19 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:

^^THIS exactly. And yet somehow the cult following of “I need my 2 bags” folks keeps flying them because they only do it 1-3x a year, so I guess they don’t really care.

Until they improve the circus, the number of business folks who fly them will still remain low.


But this was an event that happened in the past, and we are learning about it now. To comment as fact that business flyers do not fly WN is a joke. Have you read their financial performance? Have you flown on a WN flight? It wasn't even accurate hyperbole 10 years ago, let alone today.

Read the article, this happened a week ago, no one noticed, on a site like this where people split hairs to flame airlines they don't like. I would describe that as a well run operation.


WN has openly stated that ~35% of its pax are business folks. Is that number horrible? No, absolutely not. But it is well below their competitors...and there's a simple reason.

WN has an on-time problem. Sorry, that's an obvious one. The problem starts with scheduling far less time on the ground than their peers - and F9 is finding out the same thing. WN has at least gotten somewhat good at turning their planes around in 30-45 minutes (F9 has not at all) but the problem is when you schedule so little time, problems pile up.

Have you looked at WN block times in comparison to others on the same routes? It's insanity on some routes: BNA-MDW is blocked at 90 minutes gate to gate, when most every flight on FlightAware shows the gate to gate time is rarely under 90 minutes. Sure there are a few instances it's down at 80 or at like 87, but there isn't any slack at all. So what does that mean? Again, the problems begin to compound throughout the day. Add that in with the unrealistic turnaround times scheduled and voila! - on time performance drops. It also means when I'm making a connection on WN I'm usually sprinting to the next gate not only because of their boarding process, but because of the inevitable delays I usually come across.

Management has made it clear they have no choice. With the amount of flights they add, adding just a few minutes to block time and turnaround time would require dozens more aircraft, something WN can't do at the moment. They're in between a rock and a hard place and the problem won't be solving itself any time soon.

I stopped flying WN for the very reason I found their operation to be a giant circus, just as the other poster said. You're free to disagree - but yes, I've flown WN quite a bit, and refuse to do it later in the day, precisely because their on-time performance is a spectacle in itself.

But as I said in the follow up post, it doesn't matter. Like you said, they make their money through their niche and have a great % of leisure travel. But does that mean I don't think their operation is a circus? Not at all


And everyone wonders why their CASM is so low :-)
 
Caspian27
Posts: 230
Joined: Fri Mar 25, 2005 3:48 am

Re: Southwest grounding many airplanes.

Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:19 pm

I for one have always wondered how they were doing their weight and balance with regard to the passenger cabin considering all the pilots received from the FAs was a total pax count written on a napkin. On the 737 at my airline, the weight and balance is centralized and the performance is uplinked to the FMC after the weights in the pits and the passenger seat map is finalized. Other aircraft I’ve flown have had 4-6 passenger zones for their weight and balance where number of pax is tallied in each zone. I don’t see how southwest really “knew” where the pax were located in their airplanes since the only thing the pilots would get is a total count. Is it all balanced by cargo weight?

This issue sound more like a possible BOW issue. I’ve seen it before when planes get repainted and the BOW weight changed because the paint is now heavier/lighter but the BOW never got updated in the dispatch system.
Meanwhile, somewhere 35,000 ft above your head...
 
Adispatcher
Posts: 183
Joined: Sun Dec 11, 2016 11:52 pm

Re: Southwest grounding many airplanes.

Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:36 pm

Caspian27 wrote:
I for one have always wondered how they were doing their weight and balance with regard to the passenger cabin considering all the pilots received from the FAs was a total pax count written on a napkin. On the 737 at my airline, the weight and balance is centralized and the performance is uplinked to the FMC after the weights in the pits and the passenger seat map is finalized. Other aircraft I’ve flown have had 4-6 passenger zones for their weight and balance where number of pax is tallied in each zone. I don’t see how southwest really “knew” where the pax were located in their airplanes since the only thing the pilots would get is a total count. Is it all balanced by cargo weight?

This issue sound more like a possible BOW issue. I’ve seen it before when planes get repainted and the BOW weight changed because the paint is now heavier/lighter but the BOW never got updated in the dispatch system.


I'm curious how you know that is how they get the pax info? Is it not entered by the station, as well? I would assume they do it similar to where I am at, which is how you describe it. We also have it broken down by cabin, but they really only have one that is a free-for-all, so who knows...
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 2283
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

Re: Southwest grounding many airplanes.

Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:13 pm

[list=][/list]
sccutler wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
Sloppy….what else will be coming out? They didn't inspect their fan blades until forced to by the FAA.


Utterly bullshit.



So why did it take TWO incidents of a cracked fan blade for the FAA to finally order an inspection of all CFM engines on 737's? You'd think that WN might have done this on their own after the evidence of the first incident pointed to a cracked fan blade. They could have been pro-active but no...it took a second incident on the same airline and someone dying for the FAA to step in and force them (and others) to do it. You can bet that AS greased the shit out of tail screws after 261 and AF made sure their pitot tubes didn't freeze up after 447..

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/sou ... ing-public
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4850
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: Southwest grounding many airplanes.

Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:46 pm

Peak is over, it's way before labor day. People want a gap between their trips and back to school shopping etc. Some schools have even started up in places.

Labor day is def a little boost weekend for demand but the weeks before the demand is much lower. Ie right now is after peak no question. Labor day weekend isn't even that busy flying wise random dates in July are way way busier in peak summer.

Southwest does have some slack now that peak summer is over both demandwise and their own scheduling.
 
User avatar
aeromoe
Posts: 1344
Joined: Fri Dec 08, 2006 8:34 am

Re: Southwest grounding many airplanes.

Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:08 pm

Would this grounding be the reason I saw ~ 15-20 WN aircraft parked nose-north north of C-concourse at DEN on Wednesday last week (8 Aug). I only noticed them after looking at photos I snapped of DEN while on downwind arriving to the north from PHX.
Last edited by aeromoe on Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Since 60s: AA AC AS BA BD BF BN BR(85) BY B6 CO CZ(16) DG DL EA EI EN FI FL FT F9 HA HP ICX JI JQ J7 KE KL KS LH MC NW OC OO OZ(87) OZ(88) PA PI PN(97) PT QF QQ RM RO RV(99) RV(16) RW SK SM SQ S4 TI TS TW UA UK US UZ VS VX WA WN WS W7 XV YV YX(13) ZZ 9K
 
WN732
Posts: 824
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2011 12:49 am

Re: Southwest grounding many airplanes.

Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:20 pm

aeromoe wrote:
Would this grounding be the reason I saw ~ 15-20 WN aircraft parked nose-north north of C-councourse at DEN on Wednesday last week (8 Aug). I only noticed them after looking at photos I snapped of DEN while on downwind arriving to the north from PHX.


DEN had a freak hailstorm last week. That might have been why.
 
User avatar
aeromoe
Posts: 1344
Joined: Fri Dec 08, 2006 8:34 am

Re: Southwest grounding many airplanes.

Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:26 pm

WN732 wrote:
DEN had a freak hailstorm last week. That might have been why.


Copy..thanks
Since 60s: AA AC AS BA BD BF BN BR(85) BY B6 CO CZ(16) DG DL EA EI EN FI FL FT F9 HA HP ICX JI JQ J7 KE KL KS LH MC NW OC OO OZ(87) OZ(88) PA PI PN(97) PT QF QQ RM RO RV(99) RV(16) RW SK SM SQ S4 TI TS TW UA UK US UZ VS VX WA WN WS W7 XV YV YX(13) ZZ 9K
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14629
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Southwest grounding many airplanes.

Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:34 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
[list=][/list]
sccutler wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
Sloppy….what else will be coming out? They didn't inspect their fan blades until forced to by the FAA.


Utterly bullshit.



So why did it take TWO incidents of a cracked fan blade for the FAA to finally order an inspection of all CFM engines on 737's? You'd think that WN might have done this on their own after the evidence of the first incident pointed to a cracked fan blade. They could have been pro-active but no...it took a second incident on the same airline and someone dying for the FAA to step in and force them (and others) to do it. You can bet that AS greased the shit out of tail screws after 261 and AF made sure their pitot tubes didn't freeze up after 447..

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/sou ... ing-public


Do we know that WN didn’t have a good reason to believe that the first incident was a one-off?
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
Aptivaboy
Posts: 948
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2016 3:32 pm

Re: Southwest grounding many airplanes.

Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:59 pm

With the advent of the "NO CHILD LEFT BEHIND ACT" in 2002, standardized testing has been put in place in public schools across the country. So schools are looking to maximize the number of instructional days before the testing. Voila..early to mid-August school starts.


Very close! History and Econ teacher here. Much of MCLB is slowly going away, and a lot of the useless standardized testing is gone, too. Many states realized that the only people benefiting from the tests were the test writing and grading companies who were making bank on these (often) useless tests. Some testing remains or has been reinstated, but its nowhere near the level of a decade or so, ago.

Today, we start early for testing more to give the kids more time for AP testing, SATs and ACTs. The shorter summer means that there is often more time in the athletic schedule for practices during the school year before league games begin, which sports hungry parents actually prefer. After all, we all know what really drives the schools - athletics, not academics. Its a sad commentary, but true.

Anyway, yes, you were totally right as of a few years ago and are still mostly right, its just that the focus and type of said testing has changed. My school goes back next Friday and ends around June 15th. 'Til then, I'm enjoying my post-summer school Maui vacation. As an aside, flying Hawaiian first class, even on an old 767, was pure Heaven. I"m sure the trip back first class on a brand new A321 will be even better!
 
flyguy84
Posts: 770
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2016 7:26 pm

Re: Southwest grounding many airplanes.

Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:06 am

airzona11 wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
flyguy84 wrote:
The entire Southwest operation has been a complete circus for the longest time...they can't get flights out on-time, many cancellations... They have become very unreliable. This is just another notch in their belt...


^^THIS exactly. And yet somehow the cult following of “I need my 2 bags” folks keeps flying them because they only do it 1-3x a year, so I guess they don’t really care.

Until they improve the circus, the number of business folks who fly them will still remain low.


But this was an event that happened in the past, and we are learning about it now. To comment as fact that business flyers do not fly WN is a joke. Have you read their financial performance? Have you flown on a WN flight? It wasn't even accurate hyperbole 10 years ago, let alone today.

Read the article, this happened a week ago, no one noticed, on a site like this where people split hairs to flame airlines they don't like. I would describe that as a well run operation.

Less than 45% of their flights departing on-time so far this month. If that’s “well run” to you, well.....
SFO
 
swacle
Posts: 532
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2003 1:41 pm

Re: Southwest grounding many airplanes.

Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:27 am

flyguy84 wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:

^^THIS exactly. And yet somehow the cult following of “I need my 2 bags” folks keeps flying them because they only do it 1-3x a year, so I guess they don’t really care.

Until they improve the circus, the number of business folks who fly them will still remain low.


But this was an event that happened in the past, and we are learning about it now. To comment as fact that business flyers do not fly WN is a joke. Have you read their financial performance? Have you flown on a WN flight? It wasn't even accurate hyperbole 10 years ago, let alone today.

Read the article, this happened a week ago, no one noticed, on a site like this where people split hairs to flame airlines they don't like. I would describe that as a well run operation.

Less than 45% of their flights departing on-time so far this month. If that’s “well run” to you, well.....


Show me data for DL, AA, and UA, too. In case you missed it, the weather East of Indiana has been consistently terrible for the last 3 weeks. There have been daily flow control issues to anywhere east of Pittsburgh. I refuse to believe that only WN is affected by this, especially since DL, AA, and UA all have large operations in the Northeast and Southeast......
Aircraft Flown: SF3 DH8 DH4 328 ERJ CRJ CR7 CR9 E70 E75 D9S M80 712 72S 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 739ER 752 318 319 32
 
0newair0
Posts: 436
Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2007 12:21 am

Re: Southwest grounding many airplanes.

Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:28 am

Chemist wrote:
lavalampluva wrote:
We haven't hit Labor Day yet. Summer is still peaking.


I don't think so.
When I was a kid in the 60's and 70's, I never was in public school before mid Sept. Somehow since then, although summer doesn't end until 9/21, the start date of schools in the US has crept earlier, now to mid-late August. So lots of families are no longer traveling even though it (celestially) is still mid-summer.

I have no idea why this bizarre change has occurred.


Peak flying is over around August 17th (+/-) for most carriers.
That's not how this works! That's not how any of this works!
 
GatorClark
Posts: 104
Joined: Tue Aug 18, 2015 6:34 am

Re: Southwest grounding many airplanes.

Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:31 am

flyguy84 wrote:
The entire Southwest operation has been a complete circus for the longest time...they can't get flights out on-time, many cancellations... They have become very unreliable. This is just another notch in their belt...


Not sure where you get that assumption from. I consistently fly through several of their focus cities (hubs for all intents and purposes but Southwest doesn't like the term "Hubs") and my flights have been on-time arriving to the gate, boarding on time, and departing on time CONSISTENTLY. And if you're wondering, the hubs I fly through are MDW, BWI, MCO & occasionally FLL. I don't know how you determine "unreliable" but from MY experience on WN, they are EXTREMELY reliable. More so than any other carrier I fly and I usually choose to fly DL when I dont choose WN.
 
lowfareair
Posts: 321
Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2016 4:40 pm

Re: Southwest grounding many airplanes.

Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:35 am

SonaSounds wrote:
afcjets wrote:
I didn’t realize WN or any major US airline reduced their schedule during slow months.


For all flights originating and/or arriving in the United States, the high and low months of 2018:

February - 731,248 scheduled passenger operations
July - 911,533 scheduled passenger operations

A difference of 24.7% from high to low season


July has ~11% more days than February. Dividing it into flights per day, it's 26116/day in February and 29404/day in July. Still a large gap (February has 11% fewer average daily flights than July) , just nowhere near 25%.
 
mwmav8r01
Posts: 70
Joined: Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:22 pm

Re: Southwest grounding many airplanes.

Wed Aug 15, 2018 1:09 am

hiflyeras wrote:
Sloppy….what else will be coming out? They didn't inspect their fan blades until forced to by the FAA.


I dont get the SWA hate here. Largest domestic carrier.... If you dont like it... Dont fly em... Why the hatorade?
 
baqnav
Posts: 50
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 4:08 am

Re: Southwest grounding many airplanes.

Wed Aug 15, 2018 1:22 am

Search the first five posters profiles. Search their previous posts on airliners. You’ll see a few in that sample,who have an agenda and are remarkably good at promoting it. It used to be said good goes around. Be safe and blue skies all.
My opions are mine, not my employers
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9524
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: Southwest grounding many airplanes.

Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:12 am

hiflyeras wrote:
[list=][/list]
sccutler wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
Sloppy….what else will be coming out? They didn't inspect their fan blades until forced to by the FAA.


Utterly bullshit.



So why did it take TWO incidents of a cracked fan blade for the FAA to finally order an inspection of all CFM engines on 737's? You'd think that WN might have done this on their own after the evidence of the first incident pointed to a cracked fan blade. They could have been pro-active but no...it took a second incident on the same airline and someone dying for the FAA to step in and force them (and others) to do it. You can bet that AS greased the shit out of tail screws after 261 and AF made sure their pitot tubes didn't freeze up after 447..

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/sou ... ing-public


You’re assuming AS never had a close call or maintenance failure with the jack screw before 261? Ditto with AF. IIRC, there was quite a bit of talk back then about pressure within AS to push the limits a bit, at least in OAK.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
jetmechanicdave
Head Support
Posts: 235
Joined: Thu May 17, 2012 4:27 pm

Re: Southwest grounding many airplanes.

Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:44 am

This has been resolved and the thread is being locked.
Aircraft Mechanic and Airliners.net Forum Moderator
 
jetmechanicdave
Head Support
Posts: 235
Joined: Thu May 17, 2012 4:27 pm

Re: Southwest grounding many airplanes.

Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:50 am

7673mech wrote:
Did any of you read the article?
It apparently happened last week and the planes were cleared to fly after an overnight investigation.
Though I do agree they are a mess. I am interested to see what happens with their ETOPs program.


Exactly, thank you for being one of few that actually read the whole story.
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