n471wn
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Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:19 pm

While a lot of airlines are saying goodbye to this grand lady of the skies, it is good to note that 1/2 of the 554 built are still flying—276 to be exact. She has many years of flying left and that gives us comfort.
 
727LOVER
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:22 pm

Does 554 include cargo?
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Polot
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:23 pm

727LOVER wrote:
Does 554 include cargo?

Not sure because fewer than 554 pax 744s were built but more than 554 including cargo were built...
 
george77300
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:39 pm

n471wn wrote:
While a lot of airlines are saying goodbye to this grand lady of the skies, it is good to note that 1/2 of the 554 built are still flying—276 to be exact. She has many years of flying left and that gives us comfort.


Precisely. BA have them for 6 more years. I’d imagine LHs stay around for a while too among others. It would be interesting to know where the last -400 will fly.
 
n471wn
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:46 pm

554 is the TOTAL build (all models) of the 400 series
 
727LOVER
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:51 pm

I don't think anyone was ever saying the CARGO version of the 744 was dead
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Polot
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:59 pm

n471wn wrote:
554 is the TOTAL build (all models) of the 400 series

No it isn’t, 694 -400s across all models (-400/F/ER/ERF/M/D) were built.
Last edited by Polot on Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:59 pm

n471wn wrote:
554 is the TOTAL build (all models) of the 400 series


Umm. Even wikipedia disagrees: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_747-400
 
evanb
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:30 pm

george77300 wrote:
Precisely. BA have them for 6 more years. I’d imagine LHs stay around for a while too among others. It would be interesting to know where the last -400 will fly.


With the way oil prices have gone in the last year or so BA and LH could well accelerate retirements.
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:44 pm

How many of the ones still flying are PAX? Chances of people actually flying a 744 is getting slimmer, no doubt.
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:46 am

My data says that there are only 142 passenger 744s in service (including two Combis and Qantas's six -400ERs) and 49 in storage, while 205 have been retired and six written-off. Qantas will be out of 747s by 2020, KLM is drawing down its fleet, really only leaving CI, KE, BA and LH as major operators. I predict that fuel and age will see a number of those carriers bring forth retirement plans in the next two years.
 
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:50 am

EBT wrote:
My data says that there are only 142 passenger 744s in service (including two Combis and Qantas's six -400ERs) and 49 in storage, while 205 have been retired and six written-off. Qantas will be out of 747s by 2020, KLM is drawing down its fleet, really only leaving CI, KE, BA and LH as major operators. I predict that fuel and age will see a number of those carriers bring forth retirement plans in the next two years.

While 2020 IS the announced date I wouldn't bet heavily on it happening on schedule, particularly the ERs

Gemuser
 
n471wn
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:03 am

Polot wrote:
n471wn wrote:
554 is the TOTAL build (all models) of the 400 series

No it isn’t, 694 -400s across all models (-400/F/ER/ERF/M/D) were built.


You are correct—I made a math error so 276 out of 694 are still active
 
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:34 am

evanb wrote:
george77300 wrote:
Precisely. BA have them for 6 more years. I’d imagine LHs stay around for a while too among others. It would be interesting to know where the last -400 will fly.


With the way oil prices have gone in the last year or so BA and LH could well accelerate retirements.


I can’t comment on other airlines but BA is highly unlikely. They know which frame is retiring in which month with all fleet plans and replacements sorted up until February 2024 when the last 747s go. IAG do this a lot and in the future they’ll pick another date and plan all orders and deliveries. Basically all BAs orders up until 2024 are done and all predicted retirements are sorted. (No orders or retirements beyond that yet).

If anything there is more chance of them keeping some longer if the B78J and A35K are delayed in any way or I guess if they have a hull loss it could affect it but other than that I don’t see BA changing it’s mind lightly.
 
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:19 am

Gemuser wrote:
EBT wrote:
My data says that there are only 142 passenger 744s in service (including two Combis and Qantas's six -400ERs) and 49 in storage, while 205 have been retired and six written-off. Qantas will be out of 747s by 2020, KLM is drawing down its fleet, really only leaving CI, KE, BA and LH as major operators. I predict that fuel and age will see a number of those carriers bring forth retirement plans in the next two years.

While 2020 IS the announced date I wouldn't bet heavily on it happening on schedule, particularly the ERs

Gemuser


Why's that? They will have the 787-9s that are replacing them in the fleet by then, and will be looking beyond that to the Sunrise aircraft for future expansion. Alan Joyce is no fan of quads, so it would have to be a pretty compelling case to keep them on longer than 2020.
 
smi0006
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:27 am

Is their a mandated fuel take, and fuel system modification coming up? Requiring an expensive investment, won’t this artificially limit the life of many frames? I’m sure I’ve read it on here, but can never find a reference when googling!
 
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:47 am

The FAA has mandated that passenger 744s be fitted with a fuel tank inerting system by the end of this year. That affects only US-registered airlines and planes, but EASA and other major national safety bodies have adopted it too.
The need for the inerting system is one reason for the timing of the retirement of DL and UA's 744s - they were not going to spend the large amount needed for just a short remaining operational life. European airlines have already modified, or will modify by the year end, any planes they intend to operate in 2019 or later. Not sure exactly which other jurisdictions apart from EASA have adopted the FAA directive into their own directives, you'd certainly expect Australia to have, for instance.
 
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:55 am

I’d be interested to see how long the -8 PAX version lasts in comparison the to the -400.

My guess would be it’s not in service for half the time of the -400.

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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:05 am

george77300 wrote:
I can’t comment on other airlines but BA is highly unlikely. They know which frame is retiring in which month with all fleet plans and replacements sorted up until February 2024 when the last 747s go. IAG do this a lot and in the future they’ll pick another date and plan all orders and deliveries. Basically all BAs orders up until 2024 are done and all predicted retirements are sorted. (No orders or retirements beyond that yet).


Plans are just that, plans. They're great the day they're drawn up, but if circumstances change, the plan might need to change. I imagine fuel prices are already a lot higher than when this plan was put together. If they go much higher, the plan will probably need to be adjusted.
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:13 am

n471wn wrote:
Polot wrote:
n471wn wrote:
554 is the TOTAL build (all models) of the 400 series

No it isn’t, 694 -400s across all models (-400/F/ER/ERF/M/D) were built.


You are correct—I made a math error so 276 out of 694 are still active


Wikipedia makes it 376 in use in July 2018, 216 freighters leave 163 passenger frames.

If we look at all frames flying or having flown passengers:

442 747-400
21 747-400D
6 747-400ER
63 747-400M

That makes it 532, of those 163 are still in use. This number of 747-400 used for passengers is going down fast month per month. I think all of the D are gone and most of the M with KLM still flying a few.
 
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:16 am

FedEx is still flying DC-10s from 1973. The DC-10 as a passenger type has been obsolete for a long, long time. When was the last order for a new operator of a 744 or 748? Dead, dead, dead.
 
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:19 am

EBT wrote:
My data says that there are only 142 passenger 744s in service (including two Combis and Qantas's six -400ERs) and 49 in storage, while 205 have been retired and six written-off. Qantas will be out of 747s by 2020, KLM is drawing down its fleet, really only leaving CI, KE, BA and LH as major operators. I predict that fuel and age will see a number of those carriers bring forth retirement plans in the next two years.


There are definitely more than two combi's - KLM alone has eight in service.
KE will retire its last 744 this year - and looks like BA and LH will be left only two major 744 operators into 2020s.
 
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:03 pm

EBT wrote:
Why's that? They will have the 787-9s that are replacing them in the fleet by then, and will be looking beyond that to the Sunrise aircraft for future expansion. Alan Joyce is no fan of quads, so it would have to be a pretty compelling case to keep them on longer than 2020.


Simply, I am skeptical of QF keeping to the plan. I suppose IF everything goes as expected then it will happen, will everything go to plan? Who knows!
The B744ERs will be less than 20 years old. Be very unusual for QF to retire an aircraft before 20 - 25 years old, especially given their capex problems.
I suspect that the B789s can be more profitably used elsewhere than SCL & JNB, especially North America & Europe and I don't think 14 will cover everything.
I personally suspect that the ERs will last until the Project Sunrise aircraft, at least start to arrive, which I believe is planned for 2022.
But who knows!

Gemuser
 
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:19 pm

I agree with Gemuser. Plans can change, and right now the 789 deliveries barely cover the 747 retirements. After a decade of inertia Qantas have been growing again internationally over recent years, and have discovered the benefits of the 789 in longer, thinner markets like PER-LHR and MEL-SFO. I wouldn’t be at all shocked to see the 789s open some additional makets, meaning they aren’t in a position to replace the 747 fleet. I honestly expect the 6 74Es to stay around until the 77X/350 Sunrise aircraft are delivered.
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:29 pm

scbriml wrote:
george77300 wrote:
I can’t comment on other airlines but BA is highly unlikely. They know which frame is retiring in which month with all fleet plans and replacements sorted up until February 2024 when the last 747s go. IAG do this a lot and in the future they’ll pick another date and plan all orders and deliveries. Basically all BAs orders up until 2024 are done and all predicted retirements are sorted. (No orders or retirements beyond that yet).


Plans are just that, plans. They're great the day they're drawn up, but if circumstances change, the plan might need to change. I imagine fuel prices are already a lot higher than when this plan was put together. If they go much higher, the plan will probably need to be adjusted.


Not as easy as you’d think. BA can’t suddenly get their 787/350 years earlier than planned. Otherwise they will have no replacements for them. If I were a betting man I’d say they are more likely to be around after Feb 2024 than they are to be retired early. BA are printing money on those 86J 747s to NYC in particular. With no true capacity replacement yet. It’s no wonder the High-J are staying longer and I would expect the final flight to be JFK-LHR.
 
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:45 pm

Does anybody here know when TG plan to retire their 744s???
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:48 pm

Gemuser wrote:
EBT wrote:
Why's that? They will have the 787-9s that are replacing them in the fleet by then, and will be looking beyond that to the Sunrise aircraft for future expansion. Alan Joyce is no fan of quads, so it would have to be a pretty compelling case to keep them on longer than 2020.


Simply, I am skeptical of QF keeping to the plan. I suppose IF everything goes as expected then it will happen, will everything go to plan? Who knows!
The B744ERs will be less than 20 years old. Be very unusual for QF to retire an aircraft before 20 - 25 years old, especially given their capex problems.
I suspect that the B789s can be more profitably used elsewhere than SCL & JNB, especially North America & Europe and I don't think 14 will cover everything.
I personally suspect that the ERs will last until the Project Sunrise aircraft, at least start to arrive, which I believe is planned for 2022.
But who knows!

Gemuser


Yes, I agree.

JNB and SCL are two markets where having a product that is different to the rest of the fleet isn't going to cause too much grief.

I suspect the original plan of retiring the 744 in 2020 gives QF plenty of flexibility is there is opportunity for them to keep the aircraft longer.

From where I sit QF International, structurally should have a larger share of the market. Ordering a few more 787-9's combined with keeping the 744ER a couple more years could give them a relatively cheap boost in capacity without taking on too much risk if the market turns against growing capacity.

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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:55 pm

I'm really surprised that so few were built - had assumed over 1000! Clearly it was not a particularly successful design for Boeing. I wonder how much money they lost on the variant.
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:55 pm

george77300 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
george77300 wrote:
I can’t comment on other airlines but BA is highly unlikely. They know which frame is retiring in which month with all fleet plans and replacements sorted up until February 2024 when the last 747s go. IAG do this a lot and in the future they’ll pick another date and plan all orders and deliveries. Basically all BAs orders up until 2024 are done and all predicted retirements are sorted. (No orders or retirements beyond that yet).


Plans are just that, plans. They're great the day they're drawn up, but if circumstances change, the plan might need to change. I imagine fuel prices are already a lot higher than when this plan was put together. If they go much higher, the plan will probably need to be adjusted.


Not as easy as you’d think. BA can’t suddenly get their 787/350 years earlier than planned. Otherwise they will have no replacements for them. If I were a betting man I’d say they are more likely to be around after Feb 2024 than they are to be retired early. BA are printing money on those 86J 747s to NYC in particular. With no true capacity replacement yet. It’s no wonder the High-J are staying longer and I would expect the final flight to be JFK-LHR.


Someone I know at BA involved with the long haul fleet seems to think the retirement date could be pushed back depending on oil price, most of the high J’s would be about 25-26 years old by 2024. Take from that what you will.
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:09 pm

georgiaame wrote:
I'm really surprised that so few were built - had assumed over 1000! Clearly it was not a particularly successful design for Boeing. I wonder how much money they lost on the variant.



It was the most successful variant by far... What are your conclusions based on?
 
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:09 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
FedEx is still flying DC-10s from 1973. The DC-10 as a passenger type has been obsolete for a long, long time. When was the last order for a new operator of a 744 or 748? Dead, dead, dead.


UPS on Feb 1st 2018 for 14 more 748s. Not quite dead yet. You'll see freighter version flying for decades longer.
 
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:26 pm

george77300 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
george77300 wrote:
I can’t comment on other airlines but BA is highly unlikely. They know which frame is retiring in which month with all fleet plans and replacements sorted up until February 2024 when the last 747s go. IAG do this a lot and in the future they’ll pick another date and plan all orders and deliveries. Basically all BAs orders up until 2024 are done and all predicted retirements are sorted. (No orders or retirements beyond that yet).


Plans are just that, plans. They're great the day they're drawn up, but if circumstances change, the plan might need to change. I imagine fuel prices are already a lot higher than when this plan was put together. If they go much higher, the plan will probably need to be adjusted.


Not as easy as you’d think. BA can’t suddenly get their 787/350 years earlier than planned. Otherwise they will have no replacements for them. If I were a betting man I’d say they are more likely to be around after Feb 2024 than they are to be retired early. BA are printing money on those 86J 747s to NYC in particular. With no true capacity replacement yet. It’s no wonder the High-J are staying longer and I would expect the final flight to be JFK-LHR.


I was also of the impression that the final 12 -400s, in 86J configuration, don't have replacements on order as of yet. IF they do go for some more A380s there's not much wiggle room in the production schedule at the planned production rate which could mean some 747s stay on longer. Pure speculation on my part, but putting 86 next gen Club World seats on, say, an A35K would take up an awful lot of retail space
 
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:53 pm

SQ317 wrote:
george77300 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Plans are just that, plans. They're great the day they're drawn up, but if circumstances change, the plan might need to change. I imagine fuel prices are already a lot higher than when this plan was put together. If they go much higher, the plan will probably need to be adjusted.


Not as easy as you’d think. BA can’t suddenly get their 787/350 years earlier than planned. Otherwise they will have no replacements for them. If I were a betting man I’d say they are more likely to be around after Feb 2024 than they are to be retired early. BA are printing money on those 86J 747s to NYC in particular. With no true capacity replacement yet. It’s no wonder the High-J are staying longer and I would expect the final flight to be JFK-LHR.


I was also of the impression that the final 12 -400s, in 86J configuration, don't have replacements on order as of yet. IF they do go for some more A380s there's not much wiggle room in the production schedule at the planned production rate which could mean some 747s stay on longer. Pure speculation on my part, but putting 86 next gen Club World seats on, say, an A35K would take up an awful lot of retail space


Yes indeed and with 14F and WT+ too you’d have no Economy left. This is the problem with BA bringing a new J seat next year rumoured with the A350. The real estate will be less as the new seat is bound to be bigger so they will struggle even more getting the numbers in the aircraft. And although the J seat is sub par if they are selling 86 for astronomic fees across the Atlantic for $10k plus to NYC on a 6 hour flight it all makes sense as to why they have kept them. They are printing money with those seats and why I think they have waited a long time to improve the J hard product.
 
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:01 pm

Is the FAA requiring the improved fuel inerting system on the freighters?
 
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:12 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
n471wn wrote:
Polot wrote:
No it isn’t, 694 -400s across all models (-400/F/ER/ERF/M/D) were built.


You are correct—I made a math error so 276 out of 694 are still active


Wikipedia makes it 376 in use in July 2018, 216 freighters leave 163 passenger frames.

If we look at all frames flying or having flown passengers:

442 747-400
21 747-400D
6 747-400ER
63 747-400M

That makes it 532, of those 163 are still in use. This number of 747-400 used for passengers is going down fast month per month. I think all of the D are gone and most of the M with KLM still flying a few.


So, given that basically 70% of passenger 747-400s are no longer in service, the thread starter is misleading us. "Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated", is itself greatly exaggerated. ;)

MIflyer12 wrote:
The DC-10 as a passenger type has been obsolete for a long, long time.


The last passenger DC10 was retired was 2014.
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:25 pm

No wonder BA (IAG) is throwing its toys out of the pram about A380 prices.They need those 6 (and Airbus knows it).Mind you those Malaysian ones may come back on the market now their alternative project has bitten the dust.
Who will be the last -400 user ?BA,LH or Qantas?
 
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:41 pm

georgiaame wrote:
I'm really surprised that so few were built - had assumed over 1000! Clearly it was not a particularly successful design for Boeing. I wonder how much money they lost on the variant.


Over 600 built and your claiming it was an obvious money loser? You do realize this plane was a modification from earlier designs decades earlier? As such the initial tooling and cost structure were covered by those versions. I think it's obvious they made money off the plane given this version is basically a more modern 'tune up' from previous versions.
 
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:46 pm

george77300 wrote:
Not as easy as you’d think. BA can’t suddenly get their 787/350 years earlier than planned. Otherwise they will have no replacements for them. If I were a betting man I’d say they are more likely to be around after Feb 2024 than they are to be retired early. BA are printing money on those 86J 747s to NYC in particular. With no true capacity replacement yet. It’s no wonder the High-J are staying longer and I would expect the final flight to be JFK-LHR.


No, they're not going to get B787/A350 years earlier, but they have shown an affinity to picking up B77Ws in small numbers. Deals on B77Ws are getting better and as fuel prices go up, the margin between operating a B744 and acquiring a B77W on lease shifts.
 
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:46 pm

george77300 wrote:
n471wn wrote:
While a lot of airlines are saying goodbye to this grand lady of the skies, it is good to note that 1/2 of the 554 built are still flying—276 to be exact. She has many years of flying left and that gives us comfort.


Precisely. BA have them for 6 more years. I’d imagine LHs stay around for a while too among others. It would be interesting to know where the last -400 will fly.

No two ways about it - JFK Terminal 7.
 
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:47 pm

I am an airbus guy, but my rides on the B744 were far better than the A380. The B748 takes the cake though! Beautiful comfortable ride. I will miss this plane.
 
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:09 pm

Many of you are gonna be very surprised, but it seems that the last 744 operator will likely be Aeroflot’s Group - Rossiya Airlines. And this is very symbolical especcially for nowadays realities.
Furthermore, Russian based airline AirBridgeCargo is already world’d biggest operator of 748F among other 747 cargo versions and recently has approved order for more than dozen of 748F more.
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:04 pm

727200 wrote:
georgiaame wrote:
I'm really surprised that so few were built - had assumed over 1000! Clearly it was not a particularly successful design for Boeing. I wonder how much money they lost on the variant.


Over 600 built and your claiming it was an obvious money loser? You do realize this plane was a modification from earlier designs decades earlier? As such the initial tooling and cost structure were covered by those versions. I think it's obvious they made money off the plane given this version is basically a more modern 'tune up' from previous versions.


I think people forget that the idea of a commercial plane selling thousands of a single model is a very recent phenomenon.

I'm not inclined to dig down into sub-model totals, but just a quick snapshot of types and total deliveries for various widebodies:

747 - 1,546
767 - 1,116
777 - 1,559
787 - 716

A300 - 561
A310 - 255
A330 - 1,489
A340 - 377
A350 - 188
A380 - 226

DC-10 - 446
MD-11 - 200
L1011 - 249

When you look at those numbers, delivering 694 747-400s means the -400 alone exceeded the total production run of McDonnell Douglas widebodies, the L1011, and every Airbus widebody except for the A330 (granted, the A350 will likely surpass it based on current orders). And it did so when it had nearly a decade of a virtual monopoly at the top end of the market (if you needed the range, even if you didn't need the capacity, you basically had to get a 744). If Boeing couldn't make money building nearly 700 747-400s, then that would mean it's essentially impossible to make a profitable widebody, and no manufacturer would even bother.
The plural of Airbus is Airbuses. Airbii is not a word.
There is no 787-800, nor 787-900 or 747-800. It's 787-8, 787-9, and 747-8.
A321neoLR is also unnecessary. It's simply A321LR.
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n471wn
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:15 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
n471wn wrote:
Polot wrote:
No it isn’t, 694 -400s across all models (-400/F/ER/ERF/M/D) were built.


You are correct—I made a math error so 276 out of 694 are still active


Wikipedia makes it 376 in use in July 2018, 216 freighters leave 163 passenger frames.

If we look at all frames flying or having flown passengers:

442 747-400
21 747-400D
6 747-400ER
63 747-400M

That makes it 532, of those 163 are still in use. This number of 747-400 used for passengers is going down fast month per month. I think all of the D are gone and most of the M with KLM still flying a few.



I am the village idiot and most embarrassed. I went to my subscription website and 358 of the 694 400’s are still active—so well over 50%. I wish I could redo this whole thread with the now right numbers. Apologies to you all.
 
george77300
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:35 pm

Bhoy wrote:
george77300 wrote:
n471wn wrote:
While a lot of airlines are saying goodbye to this grand lady of the skies, it is good to note that 1/2 of the 554 built are still flying—276 to be exact. She has many years of flying left and that gives us comfort.


Precisely. BA have them for 6 more years. I’d imagine LHs stay around for a while too among others. It would be interesting to know where the last -400 will fly.

No two ways about it - JFK Terminal 7.


BAs almost certainly. Another airline may keep them longer than another 6 years.
 
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:38 pm

evanb wrote:
george77300 wrote:
Not as easy as you’d think. BA can’t suddenly get their 787/350 years earlier than planned. Otherwise they will have no replacements for them. If I were a betting man I’d say they are more likely to be around after Feb 2024 than they are to be retired early. BA are printing money on those 86J 747s to NYC in particular. With no true capacity replacement yet. It’s no wonder the High-J are staying longer and I would expect the final flight to be JFK-LHR.


No, they're not going to get B787/A350 years earlier, but they have shown an affinity to picking up B77Ws in small numbers. Deals on B77Ws are getting better and as fuel prices go up, the margin between operating a B744 and acquiring a B77W on lease shifts.


They still plan out their fleet in advance. They have planned 3 replacement either new or second hand B77W to replace the last 3 non-ER (ZZZA-ZZZC) for a long time just trying to find frames. This has been the plan for a while and looking at LATAM and EK second hand frames but clearly not up to scratch and got some good offers on a new build. As I've said before they order their planes very systematically and if any plane gets ordered now for BA for delivery before Feb 2024 I'd be very surprised.
 
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SuseJ772
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:15 pm

I would thought LH would be the longest to keep the -400 since they also have the -8 and would be easier to continue. That being said, I know very little about this part of the business.
Currently at PIE, requesting FWA >> >>
 
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JannEejit
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:33 pm

In my near 40 years as an aviation enthusiast, I've yet to take a 747 trip, all my long haul has been on 767's and A330's, even a DC-10 or two. I'd like to book a BA LHR-JFK trip sometime in the near future to get that off the bucket list. Can anyone recommend flight numbers or times that guarantee a 744 and not another type ? I know everything is subject to change but what are the regular 744 ops (if any) ? Cheers !
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:45 pm

EBT wrote:
My data says that there are only 142 passenger 744s in service (including two Combis and Qantas's six -400ERs) and 49 in storage, while 205 have been retired and six written-off. Qantas will be out of 747s by 2020, KLM is drawing down its fleet, really only leaving CI, KE, BA and LH as major operators. I predict that fuel and age will see a number of those carriers bring forth retirement plans in the next two years.

I just looked at airfleets, only 517 747s flying (all types), includes registered but stored:
https://www.airfleets.net/exploit/production-b747.htm

BA, LH, KE, and CI will will be the only major passenger flights.

LH has a replacement plan with the 779. BA? I could see an order, but not soon. A350 and 777X production must increase. Yes, I'm aware the first 779 is being produced. My point is BA will want to negotiate down pricing.

The old lady will exclusively be a freighter within 7 years for scheduled service. It is time.

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evanb
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:14 pm

george77300 wrote:
They still plan out their fleet in advance. They have planned 3 replacement either new or second hand B77W to replace the last 3 non-ER (ZZZA-ZZZC) for a long time just trying to find frames. This has been the plan for a while and looking at LATAM and EK second hand frames but clearly not up to scratch and got some good offers on a new build. As I've said before they order their planes very systematically and if any plane gets ordered now for BA for delivery before Feb 2024 I'd be very surprised.


I'm not suggesting they don't plan it out in advance. Fleet planning ultimately works on a model of capital and operating costs. The B744s are fully depreciated - they have no capital costs, but the operational costs are high, as the price of fuel gets higher, the model changes. As the capital costs of alternatives, particularly B77W (and maybe the A380) goes lower, the model changes too. At the moment, the differential cost curve for the B744 at BA is getting worse, not better.
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Fri Aug 17, 2018 7:34 am

george77300 wrote:
evanb wrote:
george77300 wrote:
Precisely. BA have them for 6 more years. I’d imagine LHs stay around for a while too among others. It would be interesting to know where the last -400 will fly.


With the way oil prices have gone in the last year or so BA and LH could well accelerate retirements.


I can’t comment on other airlines but BA is highly unlikely. They know which frame is retiring in which month with all fleet plans and replacements sorted up until February 2024 when the last 747s go. IAG do this a lot and in the future they’ll pick another date and plan all orders and deliveries. Basically all BAs orders up until 2024 are done and all predicted retirements are sorted. (No orders or retirements beyond that yet).

If anything there is more chance of them keeping some longer if the B78J and A35K are delayed in any way or I guess if they have a hull loss it could affect it but other than that I don’t see BA changing it’s mind lightly.


I don't understand why this would be a good idea.

If BA starts to gain traffic, they might want to keep retiring planes for more work. If fuel prices go up, they might want to retire older planes sooner. Refusing to adjust plans six years out makes me think BA would miss some opportunities to optimize the fleet.

Question: Did BA stick to their last long term plan? Do they really achieve these long range plans?

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