TPA Announcing New INTL Route - 8/22/2018

crescent · Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:06 pm

Why does DL think TPA-AMS is more profitable than EWR-AMS... both will be / were 767.

klm617 · Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:55 pm

jmscsc wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
Any info on frequency, equipment, start date? Nothing on the websites of those involved.

https://news.delta.com/delta-s-next-glo ... -york-city

On Delta's website along with the other new flights.

Funny that the added BOS-AMS frequency is not added to this press release.

peanuts · Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:04 pm

klm617 wrote:
jmscsc wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
Any info on frequency, equipment, start date? Nothing on the websites of those involved.

https://news.delta.com/delta-s-next-glo ... -york-city

On Delta's website along with the other new flights.

Funny that the added BOS-AMS frequency is not added to this press release.

You made a similar statement in the PIT thread. Perhaps the reason is b/c today's announcement strictly pertains to DL metal...

peanuts · Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:13 pm

crescent wrote:
Why does DL think TPA-AMS is more profitable than EWR-AMS... both will be / were 767.

I do like this question.

There are, I'm sure, multiple reasons.
Perhaps one reason is to free up needed capacity on TPA-ATL/JFK/DTW.
Another could be TPA remained a long unanswered SkyTeam dilemma while the other major alliances are already taking advantage of the TPA momentum.
EWR may have been India connecting traffic heavy for them; they have a solution in the works with the NYC n/s coming.
I'm not privy to the yield on EWR-CDG compared to JFK-CDG.

There could be another ten reasons.

axiom · Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:18 pm

peanuts wrote:
crescent wrote:
Why does DL think TPA-AMS is more profitable than EWR-AMS... both will be / were 767.

I do like this question.

There are, I'm sure, multiple reasons.
Perhaps one reason is to free up needed capacity on TPA-ATL/JFK/DTW.
Another could be TPA remained a long unanswered SkyTeam dilemma while the other major alliances are already taking advantage of the TPA momentum.
EWR may have been India connecting traffic heavy for them; they have a solution in the works with the NYC n/s coming.
I'm not privy to the yield on EWR-CDG compared to JFK-CDG.

There could be another ten reasons.

All sound. I also like MAH's thoughts on the last page. Too much capacity between "Alpha" cities, and an opportunity to diversify and chase premiums in Beta-Alpha non-stops. Tampa is unique in being a strong US region with endogenous demand while also having European appeal. Makes it a safe(r) bet, if you want to diversify your network. Generally, filling planes to Florida is never an issue, if you can price it right.

BTVB6Flyer · Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:18 pm

Some interesting tidbits from the Tampa Bay Times article.

Mainly the 1.2 million dollar incentive for 2 years and the # of Delta SkyMiles and Medallion's.

"To land the Amsterdam flight, the airport will provide an estimated $1.2 million in incentives to Delta. That includes $847,880 in waived landing fees, gate fees and operating fees for two years and $356,154 in reimbursable marketing funds for Delta to promote the route.

That is the airport’s standard package for such a flight, regardless of the airline involved, said Kenneth Strickland, TIA’s director of research and air service development. The airport also intends to apply on Delta’s behalf for funds available from Visit Florida."

"Tampa Bay hit all the green lights," he said. "Everything looked good: 134,000 SkyMiles members that are here in the Tampa Bay area, 16,000 (in) the Medallion (program). That is a large number, more so than some of the other markets that we have."

https://www.tampabay.com/news/business/ ... _171111093

compensateme · Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:19 pm

I wish TPA the best of luck with this service, but I have my doubts. The lion’s of traffic to Europe is to the UK; traffic beyond the UK has plenty of seasonal fluctuations. I’d be surprised if TPA could support two, full service carriers, in addition to the LCC and various charter flights).

Only about 12% of the visitors to TPA split their trip between MCO and TPA — that number is vastly overstated on a.net.

BTVB6Flyer · Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:26 pm

compensateme wrote:
I wish TPA the best of luck with this service, but I have my doubts. The lion’s of traffic to Europe is to the UK; traffic beyond the UK has plenty of seasonal fluctuations. I’d be surprised if TPA could support two, full service carriers, in addition to the LCC and various charter flights).

Only about 12% of the visitors to TPA split their trip between MCO and TPA — that number is vastly overstated on a.net.

There is more to TPA-Europe than the UK or even Europe as a whole. India/Middle East, etc. are all in play with flights to major connecting hubs such as AMS or FRA or ZRH. If it was so UK dominate, I would have suspected VS or Thomas Cook to enter more UK markets, than the long standing BA LGW flight.

With recent newcomers such as Icelandair, Norwegian and now DL to AMS clearly there is an attainable market outside of just UK or Europe.

LH is moving to a heavier business class route and away from Cityline aircraft, Icelandair is doubling capacity come this winter and BA is seeing their numbers to LGW grow YoY.

Also maybe 12% of TPA terminating traffic split time between TPA and MCO, but what's that percentage from MCO traffic. I am willing to guess it's a bit higher. Again TPA traffic for the most part isn't going to Orlando, if they did they would have just bought MCO, not to mention MCO is usually the cheaper option.

axiom · Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:32 pm

compensateme wrote:
I wish TPA the best of luck with this service, but I have my doubts. The lion’s of traffic to Europe is to the UK; traffic beyond the UK has plenty of seasonal fluctuations. I’d be surprised if TPA could support two, full service carriers, in addition to the LCC and various charter flights).

Only about 12% of the visitors to TPA split their trip between MCO and TPA — that number is vastly overstated on a.net.

Potentially, sure. I wonder what the ceiling is, too, and feel like we are close. A major economic disruption could very easily erode these gains, no doubt. However, each of these carriers offer distinct network advantages, products, and price points. AMS is particularly suited to tapping secondary market demand from the U.K., for example.

I think it's difficult to disentangle the Central Florida aviation market, given the overlaps. When you're talking about a region that draws many tens of millions of visitors annually, even 12% isn't chump change. The important questions are: who are the 12% Where are they traveling from? How else can they travel to, through, and from the region with the right mix of new service and new competition?

I have faith in the Air Service Development team at TPA -- they're savvy with stats, and I think it has shown in how tactical TPA is about recruitement.

Note that TPA doesn't provide revenue guarantees, either. DL is here because it wants to be.

peanuts · Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:32 pm

BTVB6Flyer wrote:
compensateme wrote:
I wish TPA the best of luck with this service, but I have my doubts. The lion’s of traffic to Europe is to the UK; traffic beyond the UK has plenty of seasonal fluctuations. I’d be surprised if TPA could support two, full service carriers, in addition to the LCC and various charter flights).

Only about 12% of the visitors to TPA split their trip between MCO and TPA — that number is vastly overstated on a.net.

There is more to TPA-Europe than the UK or even Europe as a whole. India/Middle East, etc. are all in play with flights to major connecting hubs such as AMS or FRA or ZRH. If it was so UK dominate, I would have suspected VS or Thomas Cook to enter more UK markets, than the long standing BA LGW flight.

With recent newcomers such as Icelandair, Norwegian and now DL to AMS clearly there is an attainable market outside of just UK or Europe.

LH is moving to a heavier business class route and away from Cityline aircraft, Icelandair is doubling capacity come this winter and BA is seeing their numbers to LGW grow YoY.

Also maybe 12% of TPA terminating traffic split time between TPA and MCO, but what's that percentage from MCO traffic. I am willing to guess it's a bit higher. Again TPA traffic for the most part isn't going to Orlando, if they did they would have just bought MCO, not to mention MCO is usually the cheaper option.

Let's not forget KL/AMS is pretty much UK's and Scandinavia's "second" carrier...plenty of additional 1 stop options from TPA to UK and Scandinavia now.
BA almost could be forced now to switch TPA to LHR. LH they could handle. DL may prove too much.

axiom · Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:39 pm

peanuts wrote:
BTVB6Flyer wrote:
compensateme wrote:
I wish TPA the best of luck with this service, but I have my doubts. The lion’s of traffic to Europe is to the UK; traffic beyond the UK has plenty of seasonal fluctuations. I’d be surprised if TPA could support two, full service carriers, in addition to the LCC and various charter flights).

Only about 12% of the visitors to TPA split their trip between MCO and TPA — that number is vastly overstated on a.net.

There is more to TPA-Europe than the UK or even Europe as a whole. India/Middle East, etc. are all in play with flights to major connecting hubs such as AMS or FRA or ZRH. If it was so UK dominate, I would have suspected VS or Thomas Cook to enter more UK markets, than the long standing BA LGW flight.

With recent newcomers such as Icelandair, Norwegian and now DL to AMS clearly there is an attainable market outside of just UK or Europe.

LH is moving to a heavier business class route and away from Cityline aircraft, Icelandair is doubling capacity come this winter and BA is seeing their numbers to LGW grow YoY.

Also maybe 12% of TPA terminating traffic split time between TPA and MCO, but what's that percentage from MCO traffic. I am willing to guess it's a bit higher. Again TPA traffic for the most part isn't going to Orlando, if they did they would have just bought MCO, not to mention MCO is usually the cheaper option.

Let's not forget KL/AMS is pretty much UK's and Scandinavia's "second" carrier...plenty of additional 1 stop options from TPA to UK and Scandinavia now.
BA almost could be forced now to switch TPA to LHR. LH they could handle. DL may prove too much.

I still don't really see why BA gives up the golden goose that is local demand betweenGreater London/the Southeast and TPA. If anything, Norwegian poses a bigger threat of poaching local demand, which may force BA to diversify through a LHR switch. But I don't see this happenig soon.

That inaction from BA has left the rest of the UK wide open; and as I just stated, I see this as a huge part of the opportunity for DL/KL.

compensateme · Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:04 pm

BTVB6Flyer wrote:
compensateme wrote:
I wish TPA the best of luck with this service, but I have my doubts. The lion’s of traffic to Europe is to the UK; traffic beyond the UK has plenty of seasonal fluctuations. I’d be surprised if TPA could support two, full service carriers, in addition to the LCC and various charter flights).

Only about 12% of the visitors to TPA split their trip between MCO and TPA — that number is vastly overstated on a.net.

There is more to TPA-Europe than the UK or even Europe as a whole. India/Middle East, etc. are all in play with flights to major connecting hubs such as AMS or FRA or ZRH. If it was so UK dominate, I would have suspected VS or Thomas Cook to enter more UK markets, than the long standing BA LGW flight.

With recent newcomers such as Icelandair, Norwegian and now DL to AMS clearly there is an attainable market outside of just UK or Europe.

LH is moving to a heavier business class route and away from Cityline aircraft, Icelandair is doubling capacity come this winter and BA is seeing their numbers to LGW grow YoY.

Also maybe 12% of TPA terminating traffic split time between TPA and MCO, but what's that percentage from MCO traffic. I am willing to guess it's a bit higher. Again TPA traffic for the most part isn't going to Orlando, if they did they would have just bought MCO, not to mention MCO is usually the cheaper option.

The numbers are readily available online; the lion’s share of European traffic is to the UK, Germany ranks - a distant - number two (and looking back, that was the case long before LH entered the market). That’s an inherent advantage to both BA and LH, as is the fact that the traffic overwhelming originates in Europe.

We’ll know in a few years whether the region can Successfully digest all this new European capacity but my money will remain on “no.”

peanuts · Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:25 pm

compensateme wrote:
BTVB6Flyer wrote:
compensateme wrote:
I wish TPA the best of luck with this service, but I have my doubts. The lion’s of traffic to Europe is to the UK; traffic beyond the UK has plenty of seasonal fluctuations. I’d be surprised if TPA could support two, full service carriers, in addition to the LCC and various charter flights).

Only about 12% of the visitors to TPA split their trip between MCO and TPA — that number is vastly overstated on a.net.

There is more to TPA-Europe than the UK or even Europe as a whole. India/Middle East, etc. are all in play with flights to major connecting hubs such as AMS or FRA or ZRH. If it was so UK dominate, I would have suspected VS or Thomas Cook to enter more UK markets, than the long standing BA LGW flight.

With recent newcomers such as Icelandair, Norwegian and now DL to AMS clearly there is an attainable market outside of just UK or Europe.

LH is moving to a heavier business class route and away from Cityline aircraft, Icelandair is doubling capacity come this winter and BA is seeing their numbers to LGW grow YoY.

Also maybe 12% of TPA terminating traffic split time between TPA and MCO, but what's that percentage from MCO traffic. I am willing to guess it's a bit higher. Again TPA traffic for the most part isn't going to Orlando, if they did they would have just bought MCO, not to mention MCO is usually the cheaper option.

The numbers are readily available online; the lion’s share of European traffic is to the UK, Germany ranks - a distant - number two (and looking back, that was the case long before LH entered the market). That’s an inherent advantage to both BA and LH, as is the fact that the traffic overwhelming originates in Europe.

We’ll know in a few years whether the region can Successfully digest all this new European capacity but my money will remain on “no.”

True to an extent. Markets and statistics do change over time however. Regardless of economic sustainability (during a downturn), some of these middle size markets from the US to Europe will likely remain sustainable. US citizens with a passport are growing, more US citizens are traveling abroad. Smaller planes flyer farther to and from smaller cities is a trend I don't see reversing. Catering to your own FF members, connecting the dots with JV partners, expanding 1 stop options including multiple route options to the same destinations; these and others will change statistics over time somehow. I do see a changing trend, regardless of where the economy is.

TPA is also a natural flow of Florida international growth, after MIA/FLL and MCO. As the MIA and MCO markets mature for Europeans, TPA is sort of the new kid on the block still...

deltadudejg · Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:51 pm

My idea is now that Norweigian is entering the LGW-TPA market could Tampa sustain both LGW and an additional LHR flight? LGW remain the leisure flight while a LHR flight be more for business and a higher class product? If LH is switching to mainline to provide that higher product would BA be daring enough to? They could run the daily LGW flight and add say a 3 or 4 time a week LHR flight? Maybe too ambitious but thoughts now that we have Delta launching AMS.

Maybe now that Delta is going TATL it could increase the chances of seeing VS?

Flighty · Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:53 pm

BTVB6Flyer wrote:
Some interesting tidbits from the Tampa Bay Times article.

Mainly the 1.2 million dollar incentive for 2 years and the # of Delta SkyMiles and Medallion's.

"To land the Amsterdam flight, the airport will provide an estimated $1.2 million in incentives to Delta. That includes $847,880 in waived landing fees, gate fees and operating fees for two years and $356,154 in reimbursable marketing funds for Delta to promote the route.

That is the airport’s standard package for such a flight, regardless of the airline involved, said Kenneth Strickland, TIA’s director of research and air service development. The airport also intends to apply on Delta’s behalf for funds available from Visit Florida."

"Tampa Bay hit all the green lights," he said. "Everything looked good: 134,000 SkyMiles members that are here in the Tampa Bay area, 16,000 (in) the Medallion (program). That is a large number, more so than some of the other markets that we have."

https://www.tampabay.com/news/business/ ... _171111093

This seems quite modest. They are out of pocket 400k for a really great opportunity for Tampa.

Jetty · Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:31 am

compensateme wrote:
The numbers are readily available online; the lion’s share of European traffic is to the UK, Germany ranks - a distant - number two (and looking back, that was the case long before LH entered the market). That’s an inherent advantage to both BA and LH, as is the fact that the traffic overwhelming originates in Europe.

That's only an advantage if that traffic is in the catchment area of LON or FRA (which most probably will be true in case of the former). KL/AMS is better connected to UK's regions than BA at LON and as well connected to Germany's regions as LH at FRA.

compensateme · Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:45 am

[quote="Jetty"][quote="compensateme"]The numbers are readily available online; the lion’s share of European traffic is to the UK, Germany ranks - a distant - number two (and looking back, that was the case long before LH entered the market). That’s an inherent advantage to both BA and LH, as is the fact that the traffic overwhelming originates in Europe.[/quote]
That's only an advantage if that traffic is in the catchment area of LON or FRA (which most probably will be true in case of the former). KL/AMS is better connected to UK's regions than BA at LON and as well connected to Germany's regions as LH at FRA.[/quote]

When the primary origin are LGW and FRA, and two airlines will be flying the former nonstop and one on the latter, selling tickets via AMS is hardly ideal. From the press release, DL is hoping to capture the TPA POS. I wish them well, but I’m still skeptical they can sell enough seats up front to make this route work year round.

PIEAvantiP180 · Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:55 am

Love this new addition to TPA growing list of EU destinations. This will make flights back home an additional one stop itinerary along with LH. More choices is always better for consumers and allows many pax from the bay area to not have to make connections thru the delay prone hubs on the eastern seaboard. Also we can assume that there will be military traffic on this flight now that a US carrier is on a nonstop to EU. TPA is home to US central command located at MacDill AFB and with the renewed armed forces focus on EU makes AMS for a great connection point, especially to Germany. Not sure what the number of military personnel will be but it sure can't hurt.

TW870 · Thu Aug 23, 2018 3:10 am

peanuts wrote:
compensateme wrote:
BTVB6Flyer wrote:

There is more to TPA-Europe than the UK or even Europe as a whole. India/Middle East, etc. are all in play with flights to major connecting hubs such as AMS or FRA or ZRH. If it was so UK dominate, I would have suspected VS or Thomas Cook to enter more UK markets, than the long standing BA LGW flight.

With recent newcomers such as Icelandair, Norwegian and now DL to AMS clearly there is an attainable market outside of just UK or Europe.

LH is moving to a heavier business class route and away from Cityline aircraft, Icelandair is doubling capacity come this winter and BA is seeing their numbers to LGW grow YoY.

Also maybe 12% of TPA terminating traffic split time between TPA and MCO, but what's that percentage from MCO traffic. I am willing to guess it's a bit higher. Again TPA traffic for the most part isn't going to Orlando, if they did they would have just bought MCO, not to mention MCO is usually the cheaper option.

The numbers are readily available online; the lion’s share of European traffic is to the UK, Germany ranks - a distant - number two (and looking back, that was the case long before LH entered the market). That’s an inherent advantage to both BA and LH, as is the fact that the traffic overwhelming originates in Europe.

We’ll know in a few years whether the region can Successfully digest all this new European capacity but my money will remain on “no.”

True to an extent. Markets and statistics do change over time however. Regardless of economic sustainability (during a downturn), some of these middle size markets from the US to Europe will likely remain sustainable. US citizens with a passport are growing, more US citizens are traveling abroad. Smaller planes flyer farther to and from smaller cities is a trend I don't see reversing. Catering to your own FF members, connecting the dots with JV partners, expanding 1 stop options including multiple route options to the same destinations; these and others will change statistics over time somehow. I do see a changing trend, regardless of where the economy is.

TPA is also a natural flow of Florida international growth, after MIA/FLL and MCO. As the MIA and MCO markets mature for Europeans, TPA is sort of the new kid on the block still...

Markets indeed change over time. South Florida (the MIA/FLL market) has gotten very expensive for tourists. Some of the European traffic that would have once been on the BA/AF/KL/AZ and many other flights to MIA may now be on secondary destinations such as Tampa - simply because it is so difficult to afford food and lodging in South Florida. Central Florida has great weather in the winter and I think there is a significant opportunity for growth here among customers who can pay high fares but who cannot afford the extreme prices further south.

winGl3t · Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:01 pm

GRU-MCO on DL went from red-eyes both-ways to daylight northbound during S19. It means DL invested 2 planes (low J 763) on the route, now will need 1.
It seems on of the planes now will fly this new route.

WNflyer1523 · Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:02 pm

BTVB6Flyer wrote:
Crap, they also just followed DUB Airport Twitter right after I posted this. Maybe they trying to throw us off the scent, but AMS did come first.

EDIT - And now BOG and AerLingus. They for sure have a social media person reading this thread who saw the AMS Twitter post and now are just following all possibilities.

https://twitter.com/flytpa/status/10326 ... 89792?s=21

evank516 · Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:07 pm

Is this considered a DL/KL joint venture route as well?

777klm · Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:41 pm

evank516 wrote:
Is this considered a DL/KL joint venture route as well?

I do believe so. From the KLM website: the joint venture’s geographic scope includes all flights between North America and Europe, between Amsterdam and India and between North America and Tahiti.

evank516 · Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:44 pm

777klm wrote:
evank516 wrote:
Is this considered a DL/KL joint venture route as well?

I do believe so. From the KLM website: the joint venture’s geographic scope includes all flights between North America and Europe, between Amsterdam and India and between North America and Tahiti.

Oh, great! That'll be extremely helpful!

airbazar · Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:16 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
More overcapacity in a trans-Atlantic market that is bound to come crashing down. Not just from Tampa and Denver and Seattle...but Los Angeles and Orlando and Miami and and San Francisco and Boston, too, have too much service to Europe. The planes are easy to fill, but these fares are not sustainable. As such, we are seeing airlines like try to diversify by flying to smaller points like Tampa and Dubrovnik and Cleveland and Bologna in hopes of catching a non-stop fare advantage. It makes a lot of sense.

They better figure out really quick how to make it sustainable because the TATL LCCs are coming fast and furiously.

klm617 wrote:
Funny that the added BOS-AMS frequency is not added to this press release.

That flight will be operated by KLM, not Delta.

MAH4546 · Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:35 pm

airbazar wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
More overcapacity in a trans-Atlantic market that is bound to come crashing down. Not just from Tampa and Denver and Seattle...but Los Angeles and Orlando and Miami and and San Francisco and Boston, too, have too much service to Europe. The planes are easy to fill, but these fares are not sustainable. As such, we are seeing airlines like try to diversify by flying to smaller points like Tampa and Dubrovnik and Cleveland and Bologna in hopes of catching a non-stop fare advantage. It makes a lot of sense.

They better figure out really quick how to make it sustainable because the TATL LCCs are coming fast and furiously.

That's not how it works. If it's not sustainable, the capacity will go away.

Norwegian especially is a financial disaster. They will contract.

SabresDoc · Mon Aug 27, 2018 1:31 pm

neomax wrote:
BWIAirport wrote:
BTVB6Flyer wrote:
TPA did confirm it will arrive at F and depart at E.

Will the aircraft be towed, or will it be a different aircraft? In other words, will it be flying AMS-TPA-AMS or TPA-AMS-TPA? I suppose if the route is TPA-based the 763 could hop up to ATL after arriving from AMS.

I'd assume it'll rotate out of AMS and be a same a/c turn in TPA. Happy to see the long awaited return of 767's to TPA, and therefore some new SkyTeam appearances as well! Would be nice to see an up gauge as well!

It will likely be towed. I fly the TPA-CUN seasonal route on DL and we always arrive on F and then the aircraft is towed to E for departure. As others have mentioned, the Sky Club is on E and E can certainly accommodate the 767 as it would previously make an appearance up to ATL.

axiom · Mon Aug 27, 2018 1:55 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
airbazar wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
More overcapacity in a trans-Atlantic market that is bound to come crashing down. Not just from Tampa and Denver and Seattle...but Los Angeles and Orlando and Miami and and San Francisco and Boston, too, have too much service to Europe. The planes are easy to fill, but these fares are not sustainable. As such, we are seeing airlines like try to diversify by flying to smaller points like Tampa and Dubrovnik and Cleveland and Bologna in hopes of catching a non-stop fare advantage. It makes a lot of sense.

They better figure out really quick how to make it sustainable because the TATL LCCs are coming fast and furiously.

That's not how it works. If it's not sustainable, the capacity will go away.

Norwegian especially is a financial disaster. They will contract.

Yes - if I were a betting man, I'd say Norwegian is the first of TPA's international carriers to drop out. Sure, there's untapped demand for holiday UK-Florida traffic (always), but at what yield? Feels like they are putting a plane here which they otherwise don't know what to do with. I only hope they don't trash the yields for BA.

Flyingstump · Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:33 pm

axiom wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
Yes - if I were a betting man, I'd say Norwegian is the first of TPA's international carriers to drop out. Sure, there's untapped demand for holiday UK-Florida traffic (always), but at what yield? Feels like they are putting a plane here which they otherwise don't know what to do with. I only hope they don't trash the yields for BA.

I hope not and suspect that Norwegian will stimulate demand from leisure travelers with RT airfare at half the price of what BA charged before Norwegian's arrival. Although TPA is not MCO, Norwegian seems to be doing alright at Orlando with competition from 3 different airlines who perform MCO-LGW on a daily or more than daily basis. If they partner with a travel agency or a vacation/tour company, I see them being able to fill an aircraft on a less than daily basis to TPA the same way Edelweiss does to ZRH; they'll just have to make sure to make adjustments as needed to the price and respond to demand with proper frequency.

However, I think BA's yields will definitely be affected. Fortunately, from what I've seen on other threads, it seems that BA doesn't mind flying international, long-haul flights with 55-75% LF.

axiom · Mon Aug 27, 2018 3:37 pm

Flyingstump wrote:
axiom wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
Yes - if I were a betting man, I'd say Norwegian is the first of TPA's international carriers to drop out. Sure, there's untapped demand for holiday UK-Florida traffic (always), but at what yield? Feels like they are putting a plane here which they otherwise don't know what to do with. I only hope they don't trash the yields for BA.

I hope not and suspect that Norwegian will stimulate demand from leisure travelers with RT airfare at half the price of what BA charged before Norwegian's arrival. Although TPA is not MCO, Norwegian seems to be doing alright at Orlando with competition from 3 different airlines who perform MCO-LGW on a daily or more than daily basis. If they partner with a travel agency or a vacation/tour company, I see them being able to fill an aircraft on a less than daily basis to TPA the same way Edelweiss does to ZRH; they'll just have to make sure to make adjustments as needed to the price and respond to demand with proper frequency.

However, I think BA's yields will definitely be affected. Fortunately, from what I've seen on other threads, it seems that BA doesn't mind flying international, long-haul flights with 55-75% LF.

All true, all possible. But keep in mind BA is also densifying their 777 LGW fleet, which will also add a significant amount of capacity to the route. BA haw slight declines in TPA traffic over 2017, even as (or as a result of?) other carriers have grown. Needless to say, it's worth watching to see what happens.

727LOVER · Mon Aug 27, 2018 5:20 pm

I'm thinking Edelweiss....aren't they down to 1 flight a week?

neomax · Mon Aug 27, 2018 5:44 pm

When DY enters the scene, BA is not going to leave unscathed.

Flyingstump · Mon Aug 27, 2018 5:52 pm

727LOVER wrote:
I'm thinking Edelweiss....aren't they down to 1 flight a week?

If you go tho their site, ZRH-TPA is bookable 2x/week in late September and October for 2018, and mid April 2019 through October 2019. The rest is once a week. I think when they started MCO, they decreased frequency from 2x weekly/3x weekly seasonal to 1x weekly/2x weekly seasonal and shifted that to Orlando.

Flyingstump · Mon Aug 27, 2018 5:54 pm

Should this thread be renamed "DL announces TPA-AMS - 8/22/2018"?

axiom · Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:16 pm

Flyingstump wrote:
727LOVER wrote:
I'm thinking Edelweiss....aren't they down to 1 flight a week?

If you go tho their site, ZRH-TPA is bookable 2x/week in late September and October for 2018, and mid April 2019 through October 2019. The rest is once a week. I think when they started MCO, they decreased frequency from 2x weekly/3x weekly seasonal to 1x weekly/2x weekly seasonal and shifted that to Orlando.

That's correct. They moved one frequency to MCO, and now market the two destinations together. Makes a lot of sense.

I'm not worried about this flight. It's WK's only year-round US destination, and it has the second highest number of seats after LAS. It serves the ZRH local market first and foremost.

Murdoughnut · Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:30 pm

Flyingstump wrote:
axiom wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
Yes - if I were a betting man, I'd say Norwegian is the first of TPA's international carriers to drop out. Sure, there's untapped demand for holiday UK-Florida traffic (always), but at what yield? Feels like they are putting a plane here which they otherwise don't know what to do with. I only hope they don't trash the yields for BA.

I hope not and suspect that Norwegian will stimulate demand from leisure travelers with RT airfare at half the price of what BA charged before Norwegian's arrival. Although TPA is not MCO, Norwegian seems to be doing alright at Orlando with competition from 3 different airlines who perform MCO-LGW on a daily or more than daily basis. If they partner with a travel agency or a vacation/tour company, I see them being able to fill an aircraft on a less than daily basis to TPA the same way Edelweiss does to ZRH; they'll just have to make sure to make adjustments as needed to the price and respond to demand with proper frequency.

However, I think BA's yields will definitely be affected. Fortunately, from what I've seen on other threads, it seems that BA doesn't mind flying international, long-haul flights with 55-75% LF.

TPA loses 52% of it's MSA's London traffic to other airports - principally Orlando. That comes out to about 74 PDEW. Recapture of that traffic, as well as fare based stimulation, should be plenty sufficient to support 2x flying plus BA's service.

You're also forgetting TPA's strong originating traffic, reflective of its population growth and corporate strength. All told, about 45% of TPA's total traffic is local originating, the largest share of any of the large hub FL airports.

This story does a good job of describing TPA's efforts to pitch its outbound business traffic as a balance to inbound leisure traffic: https://www.ttgmedia.com/news/routes/fl ... -off-14712

Murdoughnut · Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:32 pm

727LOVER wrote:
I'm thinking Edelweiss....aren't they down to 1 flight a week?

Two in high season. You can think of it as Edelweiss dropping service, or as the Lufthansa group supplementing the days LH doesn't fly.

NYtracon · Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:09 pm

Murdoughnut wrote:
727LOVER wrote:
I'm thinking Edelweiss....aren't they down to 1 flight a week?

Two in high season. You can think of it as Edelweiss dropping service, or as the Lufthansa group supplementing the days LH doesn't fly.

Edelweiss only have 5 long-haul aircraft, with all the new long haul routes they recently added like MCO, SAN, DEN, etc. they don't have aircraft available for a 3x weekly TPA flight schedule like they did in the past.

axiom · Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:30 pm

NYtracon wrote:
Murdoughnut wrote:
727LOVER wrote:
I'm thinking Edelweiss....aren't they down to 1 flight a week?

Two in high season. You can think of it as Edelweiss dropping service, or as the Lufthansa group supplementing the days LH doesn't fly.

Edelweiss only have 5 long-haul aircraft, with all the new long haul routes they recently added like MCO, SAN, DEN, etc. they don't have aircraft available for a 3x weekly TPA flight schedule like they did in the past.

Eh, that's really only part of the story. WK served TPA 3w when they only had two long haul aircraft. The reality is a little bit more nuanced. It's a combination of factors: LH entering the market, WK growing elsewhere, TPA reaching a potential saturation point on capacity to the region, WK's switch to a dual TPA/MCO gateway strategy, etc.

phatfarmlines · Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:49 pm

I thought KL would be the one to operate this, but it makes sense that DL would operate it as part of the DL/KL JV. The "Holy Trinity" of historical transatlantic flights from TPA is now complete (LGW, FRA, and AMS).

SabresDoc wrote:
neomax wrote:
BWIAirport wrote:
Will the aircraft be towed, or will it be a different aircraft? In other words, will it be flying AMS-TPA-AMS or TPA-AMS-TPA? I suppose if the route is TPA-based the 763 could hop up to ATL after arriving from AMS.

I'd assume it'll rotate out of AMS and be a same a/c turn in TPA. Happy to see the long awaited return of 767's to TPA, and therefore some new SkyTeam appearances as well! Would be nice to see an up gauge as well!

It will likely be towed. I fly the TPA-CUN seasonal route on DL and we always arrive on F and then the aircraft is towed to E for departure. As others have mentioned, the Sky Club is on E and E can certainly accommodate the 767 as it would previously make an appearance up to ATL.

I've asked this before, but what is the interim plan on international arrival gate usage? I see on Google Maps that gate F77 is gone for good, replaced with a wider footprint for gate F78 which can handle international arrivals.

I've also seen AA RON's using Airside E gates for late-night arrivals.

Flyingstump · Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:49 am

I've asked this before, but what is the interim plan on international arrival gate usage? I see on Google Maps that gate F77 is gone for good, replaced with a wider footprint for gate F78 which can handle international arrivals.

I've also seen AA RON's using Airside E gates for late-night arrivals.[/quote]

The interim plan seems to be to utilize Airside F until the new international concourse/airside is built. Renovations to the airside were just completed a few years ago. Whether that's good enough or not is up for debate.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/business/ ... ix/1209277

http://www.beckgroup.com/projects/tampa ... airside-f/

Now, this certainly isn't a part of the plan, but I am 90% positive that, for whatever reason, Airside C was designed to keep in mind and accommodate an A380. Why this was kept in mind for the design I have no idea, but if that's the case, I'm sure they kept the potential to expand the airside with customs in mind as well. If that was the case, they could move smaller international flights (WN's Cuba service, Swift Air, Copa, etc.) to Airside C...but I have no idea if this is possible or how this would be accomplished in a short time frame. Given that this Airside was primarily built to serve the airports largest tenant (Southwest), I would guess that maybe TPA had hopes that WN would start international service at some point down the road.

EDIT: Yep, Airside C was built to be able to accommodate the A380.
"Airside “C” is Tampa’s largest airside building with 310,000 square feet on three floors.
The terminal is a 16-gate terminal that can accommodate the newest and largest Airbus A380. "
http://www.jjkllc.net/portfolio/airport ... ide-c.html

FLYKTPA · Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:02 am

Norwegian finally opened the LGW flight for reservation past March. I assume it's safe to say its definitely year-round?

Imo, TPA doesn't need any other European service for a few years besides MAN and limited CDG service. I don't want TPA to pull a PIT and lose something because the market becomes oversaturated.

Murdoughnut · Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:33 pm

phatfarmlines wrote:
I thought KL would be the one to operate this, but it makes sense that DL would operate it as part of the DL/KL JV. The "Holy Trinity" of historical transatlantic flights from TPA is now complete (LGW, FRA, and AMS).

SabresDoc wrote:
neomax wrote:

I'd assume it'll rotate out of AMS and be a same a/c turn in TPA. Happy to see the long awaited return of 767's to TPA, and therefore some new SkyTeam appearances as well! Would be nice to see an up gauge as well!

It will likely be towed. I fly the TPA-CUN seasonal route on DL and we always arrive on F and then the aircraft is towed to E for departure. As others have mentioned, the Sky Club is on E and E can certainly accommodate the 767 as it would previously make an appearance up to ATL.

I've asked this before, but what is the interim plan on international arrival gate usage? I see on Google Maps that gate F77 is gone for good, replaced with a wider footprint for gate F78 which can handle international arrivals.

I've also seen AA RON's using Airside E gates for late-night arrivals.

The schedule is a bit tight for the European arrival channel, but manageable even with the growth coming online. As others have said, I don't anticipate TPA adding any additional European service outside of possibly seasonal MAN (Q4/Q1) and CDG (Q3/Q4). Copa has found success in readjusting to a mid-day schedule, and I would imagine you might see MEX or BOG operations do something similar, depending on the carrier.

You have to figure there will probably be one slow down in the industry prior to Airside D opening in 2024, so I think while it'll be tight at times, TPA is well positioned for future growth.

Midwestindy · Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:32 pm

Is TPA-AMS going seasonal? I don't see any flights after October, and it was announced as year-round....
https://news.delta.com/delta-s-next-glo ... -york-city

Fargo · Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:22 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Is TPA-AMS going seasonal? I don't see any flights after October, and it was announced as year-round....
https://news.delta.com/delta-s-next-glo ... -york-city

Wouldn’t surprise me. This add never made much sense to me with DL’s MCO flight right down the road.

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