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MrBretz
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Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:11 am

Does anyone know if the hurricane will affect flights to Hawaii? I did a quick look and it appears nothing is delayed. When I lived in Florida, if a hurricane came close, all the planes left the airport, and the airport was closed. That doesn’t appear to be happening in Hawaii. Does anyone know something different?
 
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aloha73g
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:22 am

No effects yet .. you will see delays and cancellations coming soon. I would expect HNL to be see lots of cancellations starting on Friday. OGG and KOA probably starting Thursday afternoon. Just saw this on twitter from Air Canada:

Travel Alert – Hurricane Lane: flights AC1829 YVR-OGG on Aug. 23 and AC1828 OGG-YVR on Aug. 23 are now departing earlier in advance of #HurricaneLane. Passengers on these Aug. 23 flights are advised to check revised departure times here: http://bit.ly/2MvolyG . #Maui

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iahcsr
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:29 am

UA is operating two extra flights HNLSFO tomorrow, 23rd.. I presume others will be doing likewise.
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dampfnudel
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:40 am

I’m surprised the airlines are waiting until the last moment to cancel their flights. From what I can tell, things will start going downhill rapidly in 24 hours or less. The navy is leaving Pearl Harbor, stores have run out of the basics, people are boarding up, etc.
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Judge1310
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:49 am

dampfnudel wrote:
I’m surprised the airlines are waiting until the last moment to cancel their flights. From what I can tell, things will start going downhill rapidly in 24 hours or less. The navy is leaving Pearl Harbor, stores have run out of the basics, people are boarding up, etc.


Well we still have to stick around for any last minute evacuees and employees (if necessary). Then there is the matter of logistics: where to send aircraft that are in a place that doesn't typically experience extreme tropical weather. Besides, we can still operate in tropical depression/weak tropical storm conditions (depending in winds, of course). The station also has to prep itself for such weather and for the eventual business continuity after the storm passes.
 
dampfnudel
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:52 am

Judge1310 wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
I’m surprised the airlines are waiting until the last moment to cancel their flights. From what I can tell, things will start going downhill rapidly in 24 hours or less. The navy is leaving Pearl Harbor, stores have run out of the basics, people are boarding up, etc.


Well we still have to stick around for any last minute evacuees and employees (if necessary). Then there is the matter of logistics: where to send aircraft that are in a place that doesn't typically experience extreme tropical weather. Besides, we can still operate in tropical depression/weak tropical storm conditions (depending in winds, of course). The station also has to prep itself for such weather and for the eventual business continuity after the storm passes.


I was just thinking about the 15-20 foot storm surges predicted on Friday. Tomorrow will definitely be the day to get busy.
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N383SW
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:54 am

Judge1310 wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
I’m surprised the airlines are waiting until the last moment to cancel their flights. From what I can tell, things will start going downhill rapidly in 24 hours or less. The navy is leaving Pearl Harbor, stores have run out of the basics, people are boarding up, etc.


Well we still have to stick around for any last minute evacuees and employees (if necessary). Then there is the matter of logistics: where to send aircraft that are in a place that doesn't typically experience extreme tropical weather. Besides, we can still operate in tropical depression/weak tropical storm conditions (depending in winds, of course). The station also has to prep itself for such weather and for the eventual business continuity after the storm passes.


That just got me wondering, where is HA sending the 717’s and Empire sending the ATR’s?
 
dampfnudel
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:00 am

N383SW wrote:
Judge1310 wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
I’m surprised the airlines are waiting until the last moment to cancel their flights. From what I can tell, things will start going downhill rapidly in 24 hours or less. The navy is leaving Pearl Harbor, stores have run out of the basics, people are boarding up, etc.


Well we still have to stick around for any last minute evacuees and employees (if necessary). Then there is the matter of logistics: where to send aircraft that are in a place that doesn't typically experience extreme tropical weather. Besides, we can still operate in tropical depression/weak tropical storm conditions (depending in winds, of course). The station also has to prep itself for such weather and for the eventual business continuity after the storm passes.


That just got me wondering, where is HA sending the 717’s and Empire sending the ATR’s?

I would imagine OGG and ITO if they have the space.
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eamondzhang
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:07 am

N383SW wrote:
Judge1310 wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
I’m surprised the airlines are waiting until the last moment to cancel their flights. From what I can tell, things will start going downhill rapidly in 24 hours or less. The navy is leaving Pearl Harbor, stores have run out of the basics, people are boarding up, etc.


Well we still have to stick around for any last minute evacuees and employees (if necessary). Then there is the matter of logistics: where to send aircraft that are in a place that doesn't typically experience extreme tropical weather. Besides, we can still operate in tropical depression/weak tropical storm conditions (depending in winds, of course). The station also has to prep itself for such weather and for the eventual business continuity after the storm passes.


That just got me wondering, where is HA sending the 717’s and Empire sending the ATR’s?

Probably send as many as they can to hangers and the rest to tie down on the ramp, as they do in Asian countries when Typhoon comes in.

Michael
 
hiflyeras
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:16 am

AS plans on operating their Thursday morning bank of flights to Hawaii and will re-evaluate in the morning about the afternoon/evening flights. I was impressed...they'd normally be operating 29 round trip flights on Thursday.
 
nine4nine
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:44 am

Looking at current NOAA trajectory Looks like every island is going to feel the wrath. Storm path changed from earlier sxraping by and following the island arc to the eye wall now touching the edge of western O’ahu and taking direct aim towards K’auai.
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usxguy
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 3:23 am

when was the last major storm to hit Hawai'i -- Iniki?
xx
 
77H
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:18 am

dampfnudel wrote:
I’m surprised the airlines are waiting until the last moment to cancel their flights. From what I can tell, things will start going downhill rapidly in 24 hours or less. The navy is leaving Pearl Harbor, stores have run out of the basics, people are boarding up, etc.


We live on a small collection of islands in the middle of the ocean. The airlines are a lifeline.

Oscar Munoz is in Hawaii currently. He said they will continue to operate for as long as it is safe to do so.

77H
 
Judge1310
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:33 am

dampfnudel wrote:
Judge1310 wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
I’m surprised the airlines are waiting until the last moment to cancel their flights. From what I can tell, things will start going downhill rapidly in 24 hours or less. The navy is leaving Pearl Harbor, stores have run out of the basics, people are boarding up, etc.


Well we still have to stick around for any last minute evacuees and employees (if necessary). Then there is the matter of logistics: where to send aircraft that are in a place that doesn't typically experience extreme tropical weather. Besides, we can still operate in tropical depression/weak tropical storm conditions (depending in winds, of course). The station also has to prep itself for such weather and for the eventual business continuity after the storm passes.


I was just thinking about the 15-20 foot storm surges predicted on Friday. Tomorrow will definitely be the day to get busy.


Also Hawai'i doesn't get 15-20 foot storm surge -- the waters off the archipelago are far too deep to allow for such surge. Now waves? Yes, wave height action can/will be that high. As stated earlier, though, airlines will continue to operate as long as it's safe to do so. Travel waivers are in place should customers wish to change itineraries free of charge (based on original ticket fare level). Remember, all we need is 10-15 minutes of taxi and takeoff time (based on local ground/air traffic conditions) and we're out the door. The longest part of evacuation is upping the payload (above and below) as much and as safely as possible based on conditions.

Don't worry, we got this. Happens every year at some portion of the network. 8-) :thumbsup:
 
dampfnudel
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:22 am

Judge1310 wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
Judge1310 wrote:

Well we still have to stick around for any last minute evacuees and employees (if necessary). Then there is the matter of logistics: where to send aircraft that are in a place that doesn't typically experience extreme tropical weather. Besides, we can still operate in tropical depression/weak tropical storm conditions (depending in winds, of course). The station also has to prep itself for such weather and for the eventual business continuity after the storm passes.


I was just thinking about the 15-20 foot storm surges predicted on Friday. Tomorrow will definitely be the day to get busy.


Also Hawai'i doesn't get 15-20 foot storm surge -- the waters off the archipelago are far too deep to allow for such surge. Now waves? Yes, wave height action can/will be that high. As stated earlier, though, airlines will continue to operate as long as it's safe to do so. Travel waivers are in place should customers wish to change itineraries free of charge (based on original ticket fare level). Remember, all we need is 10-15 minutes of taxi and takeoff time (based on local ground/air traffic conditions) and we're out the door. The longest part of evacuation is upping the payload (above and below) as much and as safely as possible based on conditions.

Don't worry, we got this. Happens every year at some portion of the network. 8-) :thumbsup:

The NWS does mention storm surge in their statements, in addition to news outlets in Honolulu and the “sky is falling” Weather Channel. Unless, you mean it’s a surge of a few feet and nothing to be worried about. Looks like I just confused a significant wave height with a significant storm surge. Anyway, the next few days should be interesting nonetheless.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/HLS.php
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Pyrex
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:07 pm

Well, this sucks... I am scheduled to fly EWR-LAX-KOA on UA on Saturday afternoon. Already have a bunch of stuff booked in the Big Island and Kauai (a few days later) so having to cancel would be a pain (and expensive). The funny thing is, I booked this vacation a few weeks ago because I felt I really needed a proper, relaxing vacation, but did not want to go to the Caribbean this time of the year because of hurricanes, so chose Hawaii instead as it was safer...

BTW, not wanting to restart the whole "the 737-900ER is a dog" thing, but does anyone know how UA's 737-900s do on such a marginal route, performance-wise, as LAX-KOA (hot conditions on take-off, long overwater flights, almost everyone checking in at least one bag, very few en-route alternates, etc.)? I am just concerned that, even if we do manage to make it, we will have to take a bunch more fuel because of weather en-route / at the destination, which will mean my back gets left in LAX (if the flight even makes it at all). Basically want to know how much I need to pack on my carry-on!
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lightsaber
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:13 pm

Latest track is slightly further south (less likely to do severe damage)
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... p=forecast

Avoiding a direct hit is a very good thing. In particular as my kids are in Lihue Hawaii!

Avoid the weather channel or weather.com, they get attention via panic and have become a disservice. The above site isn't as good as it was 2 years ago, but it has rational data.

Late edit, peak winds at Lihue are now predicted at about 42mph,
About the same at Honolulu. Yesterday the prediction was sixty mph.

Broadcast news plays to anxiety...
Flights should be cancelled, but only for about a 30 hour window.
Winter is coming.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:23 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Latest track is slightly further south (less likely to do severe damage)
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... p=forecast

Avoiding a direct hit is a very good thing. In particular as my kids are in Lihue Hawaii!

Avoid the weather channel or weather.com, they get attention via panic and have become a disservice. The above site isn't as good as it was 2 years ago, but it has rational data.

Late edit, peak winds at Lihue are now predicted at about 42mph,
About the same at Honolulu. Yesterday the prediction was sixty mph.

Broadcast news plays to anxiety...
Flights should be cancelled, but only for about a 30 hour window.

Even better, IMHO:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?stormid=EP142018
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
77H
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:33 pm

Pyrex wrote:
Well, this sucks... I am scheduled to fly EWR-LAX-KOA on UA on Saturday afternoon. Already have a bunch of stuff booked in the Big Island and Kauai (a few days later) so having to cancel would be a pain (and expensive). The funny thing is, I booked this vacation a few weeks ago because I felt I really needed a proper, relaxing vacation, but did not want to go to the Caribbean this time of the year because of hurricanes, so chose Hawaii instead as it was safer...

BTW, not wanting to restart the whole "the 737-900ER is a dog" thing, but does anyone know how UA's 737-900s do on such a marginal route, performance-wise, as LAX-KOA (hot conditions on take-off, long overwater flights, almost everyone checking in at least one bag, very few en-route alternates, etc.)? I am just concerned that, even if we do manage to make it, we will have to take a bunch more fuel because of weather en-route / at the destination, which will mean my back gets left in LAX (if the flight even makes it at all). Basically want to know how much I need to pack on my carry-on!


I’ve flown LAX-KOA 3 times with no issues. The last time was in late October of last year and there was a butt in every seat. I know because I bought the 179th seat about 45 minutes prior to departure. Made it into KOA fine.

77H
 
Sancho99504
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:17 pm

Pyrex wrote:
Well, this sucks... I am scheduled to fly EWR-LAX-KOA on UA on Saturday afternoon. Already have a bunch of stuff booked in the Big Island and Kauai (a few days later) so having to cancel would be a pain (and expensive). The funny thing is, I booked this vacation a few weeks ago because I felt I really needed a proper, relaxing vacation, but did not want to go to the Caribbean this time of the year because of hurricanes, so chose Hawaii instead as it was safer...

BTW, not wanting to restart the whole "the 737-900ER is a dog" thing, but does anyone know how UA's 737-900s do on such a marginal route, performance-wise, as LAX-KOA (hot conditions on take-off, long overwater flights, almost everyone checking in at least one bag, very few en-route alternates, etc.)? I am just concerned that, even if we do manage to make it, we will have to take a bunch more fuel because of weather en-route / at the destination, which will mean my back gets left in LAX (if the flight even makes it at all). Basically want to know how much I need to pack on my carry-on!

We're in the same boat. Flying in on Saturday with my family as well and things aren't looking so good right now. HA change policy sucks and I should have booked DL, but I couldn't pass the opportunity to fly in J on an A330. We don't want to spend our time doing nothing because everything is closed or the beaches destroyed... makes vacationing pointless.
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airbazar
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:21 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Avoid the weather channel or weather.com, they get attention via panic and have become a disservice. The above site isn't as good as it was 2 years ago, but it has rational data.

I agree with that along with taking news from just about any news outlet with a big spoon of salt. However it is a fine line with a cat4 hurricane coming this close to land.
I was just on the Big Island and the news about the volcano eruptions and the VOG were just ridiculous. In the end I spent 8 beautiful, sunny days in Hawaii.
 
Aptivaboy
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:46 pm

Fortunately, I left OGG about three days ago, just as the news was starting to seriously talk about Hurricane Lane. I guess we just hit the dates just right.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:03 pm

dampfnudel wrote:
N383SW wrote:
Judge1310 wrote:

Well we still have to stick around for any last minute evacuees and employees (if necessary). Then there is the matter of logistics: where to send aircraft that are in a place that doesn't typically experience extreme tropical weather. Besides, we can still operate in tropical depression/weak tropical storm conditions (depending in winds, of course). The station also has to prep itself for such weather and for the eventual business continuity after the storm passes.


That just got me wondering, where is HA sending the 717’s and Empire sending the ATR’s?

I would imagine OGG and ITO if they have the space.


Why send them closer to the initial impact zone?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 3:03 pm

Revelation wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Latest track is slightly further south (less likely to do severe damage)
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... p=forecast

Avoiding a direct hit is a very good thing. In particular as my kids are in Lihue Hawaii!

Avoid the weather channel or weather.com, they get attention via panic and have become a disservice. The above site isn't as good as it was 2 years ago, but it has rational data.

Late edit, peak winds at Lihue are now predicted at about 42mph,
About the same at Honolulu. Yesterday the prediction was sixty mph.

Broadcast news plays to anxiety...
Flights should be cancelled, but only for about a 30 hour window.

Even better, IMHO:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?stormid=EP142018

While NOAA is good, for Atlantic hurricanes (which effect my family directly), seeing all the models helps one understand the risks better.

I miss when NEWS wasn't 95% opinion. Sigh...

There was news on rain at my home and it made it sound like a disaster. Instead, the streets, as designed, we're water channels to storm water drainage, but perfectly drivable in a sedan. So what if my yard was six inches under water. The grass and trees loved it!

I wish everyone well in Hawaii. Facts and proper concern are due. I've talked to people, spreading panic for predicted 40mph wind?!?

I like looking at specific weather station predicted winds. NOAA doesn't go into that detail.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
evank516
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 3:15 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Latest track is slightly further south (less likely to do severe damage)
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... p=forecast

Avoiding a direct hit is a very good thing. In particular as my kids are in Lihue Hawaii!

Avoid the weather channel or weather.com, they get attention via panic and have become a disservice. The above site isn't as good as it was 2 years ago, but it has rational data.

Late edit, peak winds at Lihue are now predicted at about 42mph,
About the same at Honolulu. Yesterday the prediction was sixty mph.

Broadcast news plays to anxiety...
Flights should be cancelled, but only for about a 30 hour window.


Yeah, The Weather Company (The Weather Channel) now owns Weather Underground so it isn't as good as it used to be. Your best bet is to check with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/) and the National Weather Service for the latest Hurricane forecast. You can also access the CPHC by visiting the National Hurricane Center Website at nhc.noaa.gov. At the top of the page there is a link to the CPHC where it says "CPHC issuing advisories for the Central Pacific on Lane".
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 3:16 pm

To those visiting Hawaii this weekend, specifically kona, as two posters have stated. Take a trip to Hilo and visit the farmer's market and do a couple of the hikes in your first days. There is a lot of neat touristy stuff to do on the windward side of the island. Lots of vegetation. Fortunately the brunt of the storm will hit the leeward side and there isn't much to destroy on that side other than volcano fields with little to zero vegetation.

I too am annoyed with the hysteria of 40mph winds. You have gusts on a beach of at least half that on a good day anyways right? I live in Kansas, we get straight line winds in the 60 to 80mph range regularly from storms. (Not even tornados) 40mph is nothing to worry about. I do worry more about the leeward side of Oahu though. If the tracks are wrong and it shifts just a bit north it could be ugly.
 
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aloha73g
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 3:32 pm

Just saw on twitter that WestJet has cancelled all flights to/from Hawaii on Thursday & Friday.

-Aloha!
Aloha Airlines - The Spirit Moves Us. Gone but NEVER Forgotten. Aloha, A Hui Hou!
 
ozark1
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 3:37 pm

dampfnudel wrote:
I’m surprised the airlines are waiting until the last moment to cancel their flights. From what I can tell, things will start going downhill rapidly in 24 hours or less. The navy is leaving Pearl Harbor, stores have run out of the basics, people are boarding up, etc.

I agree. Very surprised
 
mm320cap
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 3:43 pm

Pyrex wrote:
Well, this sucks... I am scheduled to fly EWR-LAX-KOA on UA on Saturday afternoon. Already have a bunch of stuff booked in the Big Island and Kauai (a few days later) so having to cancel would be a pain (and expensive). The funny thing is, I booked this vacation a few weeks ago because I felt I really needed a proper, relaxing vacation, but did not want to go to the Caribbean this time of the year because of hurricanes, so chose Hawaii instead as it was safer...

BTW, not wanting to restart the whole "the 737-900ER is a dog" thing, but does anyone know how UA's 737-900s do on such a marginal route, performance-wise, as LAX-KOA (hot conditions on take-off, long overwater flights, almost everyone checking in at least one bag, very few en-route alternates, etc.)? I am just concerned that, even if we do manage to make it, we will have to take a bunch more fuel because of weather en-route / at the destination, which will mean my back gets left in LAX (if the flight even makes it at all). Basically want to know how much I need to pack on my carry-on!


It’s no problem in the 900ER, particularly in the summer when the winds aloft aren’t too strong. The runway is long in LAX and long in KOA. I fly it full all the time and we never have any issues. We always carry gas for the alternative and for ETOPS anyway, so there isn’t much more you can carry. Additionally, The alternate (if they go) would most likely be Hilo and the storm should be past there by Saturday. The biggest threat would be the weather in KOA is bad enough to cancel the flight; not so much a worry about carrying alternate fuel. Hope that the trip goes smoothly for you and that you have a wonderful vacation!
 
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RobK
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 3:55 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Late edit, peak winds at Lihue are now predicted at about 42mph,
About the same at Honolulu. Yesterday the prediction was sixty mph..


:roll: 42mph peak is nothing more than a stiff breeze. Why do all Americans get hysterical over this kind of nonsense and work themselves up into a lather? Even here in the UK where any weather out of the ordinary results in a media frenzy, winds of 42mph would not even be considered newsworthy except perhaps for the doom 'n' gloom Daily Express.

It will be a complete non-event.
 
klakzky123
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 3:59 pm

RobK wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Late edit, peak winds at Lihue are now predicted at about 42mph,
About the same at Honolulu. Yesterday the prediction was sixty mph..


:roll: 42mph peak is nothing more than a stiff breeze. Why do all Americans get hysterical over this kind of nonsense and work themselves up into a lather? Even here in the UK where any weather out of the ordinary results in a media frenzy, winds of 42mph would not even be considered newsworthy except perhaps for the doom 'n' gloom Daily Express.

It will be a complete non-event.


Its not. The issue with this isn't necessarily the wind. The issue is the amount of rain that could fall given how slowly the hurricane is moving and whether that will trigger flooding and mudslides.
 
saeswank
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:07 pm

Looking at all thr inbound flights to HNL in the next 6 -8 hours, if the conditions worsen, where would they divert? LIH?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:10 pm

klakzky123 wrote:
RobK wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Late edit, peak winds at Lihue are now predicted at about 42mph,
About the same at Honolulu. Yesterday the prediction was sixty mph..


:roll: 42mph peak is nothing more than a stiff breeze. Why do all Americans get hysterical over this kind of nonsense and work themselves up into a lather? Even here in the UK where any weather out of the ordinary results in a media frenzy, winds of 42mph would not even be considered newsworthy except perhaps for the doom 'n' gloom Daily Express.

It will be a complete non-event.


Its not. The issue with this isn't necessarily the wind. The issue is the amount of rain that could fall given how slowly the hurricane is moving and whether that will trigger flooding and mudslides.

Winds are sustained.

Peak winds will be higher.

There rain predicted is just over 6" in 24 hours. I've done OK in 17" overnight.

I understand people must prepare. But the news is blowing this out of proportion for clicks.
Winter is coming.
 
IADCA
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:16 pm

RobK wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Late edit, peak winds at Lihue are now predicted at about 42mph,
About the same at Honolulu. Yesterday the prediction was sixty mph..


:roll: 42mph peak is nothing more than a stiff breeze. Why do all Americans get hysterical over this kind of nonsense and work themselves up into a lather? Even here in the UK where any weather out of the ordinary results in a media frenzy, winds of 42mph would not even be considered newsworthy except perhaps for the doom 'n' gloom Daily Express.

It will be a complete non-event.


What the poster immediately below you said is true, and there's one other factor to consider: while 42 mph isn't much for the UK (or even Kansas), it is pretty stiff for Hawaii and it's unusual - 60 mph would be even more so. What that means in practical terms is that you're running winds through an environment that has developed a certain way in their absence. For example, vegetation that is regularly exposed to high winds grows in a certain way to tolerate those winds, and even things as basic as road signs are constructed pretty carefully.

In high-wind places, anything that fails those standards gets swept away in one of the many windstorms, each of which takes a few pieces of windblown debris with it, no big deal. But when you take a place that doesn't have 60-mph winds (or even 45 or whatever) regularly, trees have grown in a way that handles the normal wind, but not the hugely increased pressure from much higher winds (remember of course that wind pressure is exponential with relation to speed, not linear), and none of the weaker things that get blown away regularly in higher-wind environments have been blown away recently. So when you get high winds in a place that isn't used to them, you just get a lot more junk flying around, despite the exact same wind conditions. 42 peak probably won't do much, but a sustained storm like that (and especially at 60) would probably do a surprising amount of mess-making in Hawaii.
Last edited by IADCA on Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
klakzky123
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:17 pm

lightsaber wrote:
klakzky123 wrote:
RobK wrote:

:roll: 42mph peak is nothing more than a stiff breeze. Why do all Americans get hysterical over this kind of nonsense and work themselves up into a lather? Even here in the UK where any weather out of the ordinary results in a media frenzy, winds of 42mph would not even be considered newsworthy except perhaps for the doom 'n' gloom Daily Express.

It will be a complete non-event.


Its not. The issue with this isn't necessarily the wind. The issue is the amount of rain that could fall given how slowly the hurricane is moving and whether that will trigger flooding and mudslides.

Winds are sustained.

Peak winds will be higher.

There rain predicted is just over 6" in 24 hours. I've done OK in 17" overnight.

I understand people must prepare. But the news is blowing this out of proportion for clicks.


Amount of rain matters in context. The Big Island is mountainous with huge mudslide potential (really all of the islands have this problem). Additionally, with hurricanes its not just rain. The coasts have to deal with storm surges which magnifies flooding potential because aside from surge flooding, the surges also back up natural drainage. Houston was wrecked by Harvey because storm surges completely backed up all of the cities natural drainage. The rain itself flat out had no place to exit so it just quickly piled up.

Hawaii's drainage isn't built to account for storm surges or sudden 24 hour mass flood potential. Granted all of this depends on the hurricane's actual track but the risk is there and they hype is justified.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:17 pm

ozark1 wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
I’m surprised the airlines are waiting until the last moment to cancel their flights. From what I can tell, things will start going downhill rapidly in 24 hours or less. The navy is leaving Pearl Harbor, stores have run out of the basics, people are boarding up, etc.

I agree. Very surprised

It is expensive to cancel and you cannot uncancel.

Hurricanes turn. The hurricane is going into cooler water. Read the NOAA link and not the weather channel panic.

There will be mudslides, road closures, power issues, and possibly water issues. My kids are in Lihue... I'm not worried. The bigger issue is cargo will be halted for a few days. If a water plant goes down, that will be a huge hassle.

Best to move family back (e.g., a coworker is flying out to help his elderly mom) or people out while safe.

As noted above, aircraft have enough diversion margin.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
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aloha73g
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:31 pm

RobK wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Late edit, peak winds at Lihue are now predicted at about 42mph,
About the same at Honolulu. Yesterday the prediction was sixty mph..


:roll: 42mph peak is nothing more than a stiff breeze. Why do all Americans get hysterical over this kind of nonsense and work themselves up into a lather? Even here in the UK where any weather out of the ordinary results in a media frenzy, winds of 42mph would not even be considered newsworthy except perhaps for the doom 'n' gloom Daily Express.

It will be a complete non-event.


The biggest issue in Hawaii is that we are out here all alone. No one can pop over easily to help us with supplies, cleaning up fallen trees, blocked roads, etc. Also, our power grid is small and isolated. Read up on the island wide power outages on O'ahu in 2006 and 2008. It is VERY hard to restart a power grid without a neighboring grid to feed off of. The slow moving storm & amount of rain should be a repeat of the flooding from April that caused major problems on O'ahu and Kaua'i. There's already a major highway on the Big Island completely blocked by a landslide.

-Aloha!
Aloha Airlines - The Spirit Moves Us. Gone but NEVER Forgotten. Aloha, A Hui Hou!
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:46 pm

Well, my family and I are still flying PHXOGG this Sunday. Looks like they’ll take a glancing blow at worst, and hopefully any changes will be for the better - we’d like sunny days while there.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:47 pm

I've swam at this beach before. That wave is about 10 times the size I remember. I'll have to see if I can find some of my pictures.

Image

Also, here is a link to discussions about Pearl Harbor and Hickam AFB: http://www.staradvertiser.com/2018/08/2 ... d-of-lane/

Ships will be stationed as close as possible to assist with any issues after the storm hits.

Anyone with some meteorological background comment on why the storm may take this possible path? Such a sharp turn seems odd to me given how storms move through the Caribbean and don't seem to be affected much by the islands there. I also think such a turn will be disastrous for rain fall totals.

Image
 
nugas
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:28 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
I've swam at this beach before. That wave is about 10 times the size I remember. I'll have to see if I can find some of my pictures.

Image

Also, here is a link to discussions about Pearl Harbor and Hickam AFB: http://www.staradvertiser.com/2018/08/2 ... d-of-lane/

Ships will be stationed as close as possible to assist with any issues after the storm hits.

Anyone with some meteorological background comment on why the storm may take this possible path? Such a sharp turn seems odd to me given how storms move through the Caribbean and don't seem to be affected much by the islands there. I also think such a turn will be disastrous for rain fall totals.

Image


Tropical cyclones are affected by landmasses but generally only in terms of intensity, not their track. Obviously there is a relationship there but the most important factor for the turn is what's happening in the atmosphere in the area of the storm. Hawaii is large enough to have an impact on the system's strength but the landmass doesn't really significantly change the track.
Here's the link to the latest forecast discussion if you want to know more about their reasoning for the turn: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/ar ... 1808231502
 
sevenheavy
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:37 pm

I’m on the Big Island at the moment (Waikoloa area) and there’s not a puff of wind. There has been some heavy rain on the Hilo side but so far things are quiet here. We saw some rain yesterday, but having prepared for the worst (based on local news reports) we were on the beach until about 2pm!

It looks like the storm has slowed to a crawl. The weather will still deteriorate here through the day but it does appear not to have made the sharp northerly turn that was expected yesterday, which has kept it further offshore.

Forecasts are certainly sounding more encouraging than 24 hours ago. We are due to fly back to LAX with DL tonight......
So long 701, it was nice knowing you.
 
ShootTheMoon
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:45 pm

RobK wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Late edit, peak winds at Lihue are now predicted at about 42mph,
About the same at Honolulu. Yesterday the prediction was sixty mph..


:roll: 42mph peak is nothing more than a stiff breeze. Why do all Americans get hysterical over this kind of nonsense and work themselves up into a lather? Even here in the UK where any weather out of the ordinary results in a media frenzy, winds of 42mph would not even be considered newsworthy except perhaps for the doom 'n' gloom Daily Express.

It will be a complete non-event.


Having grown up in Honolulu living right on the coast, literally on the beach and through hurricane Iniki in 1992 I can tell you sir, this is definitely an event. Winds maybe not, but tidal for sure. My house was gutted and destroyed by the ocean last time and we expect the same this time given the tidal surge these storms generate. I don't understand why you would post an uneducated comment like this, its naive. Just because the news makes it seem "over blown" doesn't mean it wont affect people's lives. If you've lived inland in the UK and have not experienced tidal waves or hurricanes on the coast, I would suggest you do your research before making comments like this.

I expect to be flying back to the islands on Mon or Tues from SFO to help my parents dig out.

Aloha
 
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:47 pm

evank516 wrote:
Yeah, The Weather Company (The Weather Channel) now owns Weather Underground so it isn't as good as it used to be.

That explains a lot of things, like why they felt it was too much effort to maintain the "classic" UI. It's clear they decided they needed to dumb it down so weather.com didn't look so terrible. I've pretty much stopped using WU.

aloha73g wrote:
The biggest issue in Hawaii is that we are out here all alone. No one can pop over easily to help us with supplies, cleaning up fallen trees, blocked roads, etc. Also, our power grid is small and isolated. Read up on the island wide power outages on O'ahu in 2006 and 2008. It is VERY hard to restart a power grid without a neighboring grid to feed off of. The slow moving storm & amount of rain should be a repeat of the flooding from April that caused major problems on O'ahu and Kaua'i. There's already a major highway on the Big Island completely blocked by a landslide.

Let's hope the administration decides Pacific Islanders are different than Caribbean Hispanics and lives up to their responsibilities.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:54 pm

nugas wrote:

Tropical cyclones are affected by landmasses but generally only in terms of intensity, not their track. Obviously there is a relationship there but the most important factor for the turn is what's happening in the atmosphere in the area of the storm. Hawaii is large enough to have an impact on the system's strength but the landmass doesn't really significantly change the track.
Here's the link to the latest forecast discussion if you want to know more about their reasoning for the turn: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/ar ... 1808231502


Excellent response, thank you. It did not explicitly say it in your link, but I assume that the wind shear is also what is helping to stall it out. Hopefully we may even see it begin its westward tract even sooner as it appears the storm stalled out earlier than they anticipated.
 
airbazar
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:02 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
To those visiting Hawaii this weekend, specifically kona, as two posters have stated. Take a trip to Hilo and visit the farmer's market and do a couple of the hikes in your first days. There is a lot of neat touristy stuff to do on the windward side of the island. Lots of vegetation. Fortunately the brunt of the storm will hit the leeward side and there isn't much to destroy on that side other than volcano fields with little to zero vegetation.

Personally I enjoyed the windward side more than the "dry" side of the island. Wish i would have stayed there longer. That's where one can experience the authenticity of the island and its residents.
 
nugas
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:06 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
nugas wrote:

Tropical cyclones are affected by landmasses but generally only in terms of intensity, not their track. Obviously there is a relationship there but the most important factor for the turn is what's happening in the atmosphere in the area of the storm. Hawaii is large enough to have an impact on the system's strength but the landmass doesn't really significantly change the track.
Here's the link to the latest forecast discussion if you want to know more about their reasoning for the turn: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/ar ... 1808231502


Excellent response, thank you. It did not explicitly say it in your link, but I assume that the wind shear is also what is helping to stall it out. Hopefully we may even see it begin its westward tract even sooner as it appears the storm stalled out earlier than they anticipated.


Thanks. Yes, increasing wind shear can cause slowing but that's mostly due to the shear weakening the low and causing it to be more easily steered by other large scale wind patterns. In this case it was always going to make the turn to the west, the question is how much of its momentum it can sustain and the timing of the upper level ridge / trough motion. That's what will determine when the turn will occur.

As you might imagine it's complicated to formally describe how wind shear interacts with a tropical cyclone but a (grossly) simple conceptual model of any low pressure system is that it's an area where a mass of air is being removed from the area vertically. To sustain itself you have to have a mechanism to keep air flowing upwards and then flowing out. Wind shear can interrupt the process by lowering the efficiency of the upward vertical motion and disrupting well organized outflow areas.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:16 pm

So timing of this Hurricane has apparently halted the start of WN planned proving Run flights according to sources from the Denver aviation summit. Saying everything been push back 2 weeks with review of the impact to the Airports .

Fingers and prayers to my Hawaiian friends. Hopefully it will swing West and not fully impact the islands.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
slvrblt
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:34 pm

All the best wishes for my Hawaiian friends, hopefully the storm stays on a more southward track like it now appears to be. Stay vigilant though - if I've learned one thing living in Florida, it's that hurricanes are so unpredictable. I well remember Andrew, on a forecast track more towards the Ft Lauderdale area and as a category 3. At the last minute, it took a jog to the left, puffed up to a category 5, and flattened Homestead in southern Dade county instead of Broward.

Don't let your guard down Hawaii!
..everything works out in the end.
 
jagraham
Posts: 1145
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:35 pm

Hurricanes can also sit still, which is what is happening. Lane is still south of South Point.
At this point, it appears to be a rain event with at most tropical force winds. Not to say that rain is insignificant, but it is not hurricane force winds. My wife flew to Hilo this morning for her job without event.
Admittedly, earlier forecasts had a Cat 2 or 3 eye making landfall; that could have caused up to a 15 foot surge before considering tides.
That is most unlikely now. Thank God.
 
jagraham
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:47 pm

nugas wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
nugas wrote:

Tropical cyclones are affected by landmasses but generally only in terms of intensity, not their track. Obviously there is a relationship there but the most important factor for the turn is what's happening in the atmosphere in the area of the storm. Hawaii is large enough to have an impact on the system's strength but the landmass doesn't really significantly change the track.
Here's the link to the latest forecast discussion if you want to know more about their reasoning for the turn: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/ar ... 1808231502


Excellent response, thank you. It did not explicitly say it in your link, but I assume that the wind shear is also what is helping to stall it out. Hopefully we may even see it begin its westward tract even sooner as it appears the storm stalled out earlier than they anticipated.


Thanks. Yes, increasing wind shear can cause slowing but that's mostly due to the shear weakening the low and causing it to be more easily steered by other large scale wind patterns. In this case it was always going to make the turn to the west, the question is how much of its momentum it can sustain and the timing of the upper level ridge / trough motion. That's what will determine when the turn will occur.

As you might imagine it's complicated to formally describe how wind shear interacts with a tropical cyclone but a (grossly) simple conceptual model of any low pressure system is that it's an area where a mass of air is being removed from the area vertically. To sustain itself you have to have a mechanism to keep air flowing upwards and then flowing out. Wind shear can interrupt the process by lowering the efficiency of the upward vertical motion and disrupting well organized outflow areas.


There is another effect of wind shear. Hurricanes generate extreme low pressures by having very high cloud tops - exceeding 50000 feet near the eye. Wind shear blows the cloud tops off. The hurricane then does not have the cloud convection to maintain extreme low pressures. It weakens and eventually falls apart.

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