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mm320cap
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:23 pm

RobK wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Late edit, peak winds at Lihue are now predicted at about 42mph,
About the same at Honolulu. Yesterday the prediction was sixty mph..


:roll: 42mph peak is nothing more than a stiff breeze. Why do all Americans get hysterical over this kind of nonsense and work themselves up into a lather? Even here in the UK where any weather out of the ordinary results in a media frenzy, winds of 42mph would not even be considered newsworthy except perhaps for the doom 'n' gloom Daily Express.

It will be a complete non-event.


Uhhh, Katrina?
 
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jaybird
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:42 pm

It's not just the winds. But right now it is still a CAT4 which is painful. The latest forecast has it at a CAT1 when it approaches Oahu Friday night and stay as a CAT1 as it approaches and passes Kauai. But it's not just the winds which can do enough damage on their own. It's the rain. There's going to be a LOT of rain which is certain to cause landslides and flooding. And then there's power. While Hawaiian Electric has gotten much better over the years - because most power lines are above ground it's a high probability that power is going to go out in many areas. So you take the winds, the rain, and loss of power - and a lot of people are going to be a lot of people in pain. For RobK who wrote it's a "non-event" you clearly haven't been though a hurricane or an earthquake (which we get here too) - and have no idea what you're talking about.
 
ScottB
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:12 pm

klakzky123 wrote:
Houston was wrecked by Harvey because storm surges completely backed up all of the cities natural drainage. The rain itself flat out had no place to exit so it just quickly piled up.


No. The catastrophic damage in Houston was due to the sheer volume of rain dumped in the region and the inadequacy of the drainage systems to deal with that amount of water, not storm surge backup. Ironically Houston is probably one of the regions which would be best-suited to handle an event like Harvey, but the amount of water was just unprecedented. Southeast Texas is very flat, so the water just tends to drain slowly. Many of the worst-hit areas around Houston were around 100' above sea level -- the maximum storm surge reported on the upper Texas Coast (relevant to Houston-area drainage) was around 4'.

klakzky123 wrote:
The Big Island is mountainous with huge mudslide potential


The dry sides of the islands will absolutely have issues with mudslides and very rapidly moving flood waters down the mountainsides.
 
dampfnudel
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:22 pm

RobK wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Late edit, peak winds at Lihue are now predicted at about 42mph,
About the same at Honolulu. Yesterday the prediction was sixty mph..


:roll: 42mph peak is nothing more than a stiff breeze. Why do all Americans get hysterical over this kind of nonsense and work themselves up into a lather? Even here in the UK where any weather out of the ordinary results in a media frenzy, winds of 42mph would not even be considered newsworthy except perhaps for the doom 'n' gloom Daily Express.

It will be a complete non-event.

I don’t think it will be a complete non-event when it comes to flooding.
A313 332 343 B703 712 722 732 73G 738 739 741 742 744 752 762 76E 764 772 AT5 CR9 D10 DHH DHT F27 GRM L10 M83 TU5
 
BobbyPSP
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:28 pm

RobK wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Late edit, peak winds at Lihue are now predicted at about 42mph,
About the same at Honolulu. Yesterday the prediction was sixty mph..


:roll: 42mph peak is nothing more than a stiff breeze. Why do all Americans get hysterical over this kind of nonsense and work themselves up into a lather? Even here in the UK where any weather out of the ordinary results in a media frenzy, winds of 42mph would not even be considered newsworthy except perhaps for the doom 'n' gloom Daily Express.

It will be a complete non-event.


You have no idea or clue as to what a cat 4 hurricane can do even without a direct hit.

As a reminder, the UK suffered through high heat (for you) causing infrastructure to fail.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:41 pm

I didn't realize WU is now part of weather company... Sigh, no wonder it isn't as good as a few years ago and stopped having easy access to UV and such.

Please tell me Willyweather isn't owned by them...

Winspeed is windspeed...

jaybird wrote:
It's not just the winds. But right now it is still a CAT4 which is painful. The latest forecast has it at a CAT1 when it approaches Oahu Friday night and stay as a CAT1 as it approaches and passes Kauai. But it's not just the winds which can do enough damage on their own. It's the rain. There's going to be a LOT of rain which is certain to cause landslides and flooding. And then there's power. While Hawaiian Electric has gotten much better over the years - because most power lines are above ground it's a high probability that power is going to go out in many areas. So you take the winds, the rain, and loss of power - and a lot of people are going to be a lot of people in pain. For RobK who wrote it's a "non-event" you clearly haven't been though a hurricane or an earthquake (which we get here too) - and have no idea what you're talking about.

Maybe because I'm from Florida:. Ride out a 2, flee from a 3. :).

Coastal and properties at the base of hills are at high risk.

If there was a risk of CAT 4 hitting, I would have a very different tone. Note "flee from a three.". But as the hurricane turned and has been weakening. A few days ago 160mph winds. 130 is still a cat 4, but not the 160mph cat4.

It will be a hassle. I've been through earthquakes, including big ones, and tropical storms. This is currently predicted as a tropical storm or depression. While power will be lost and the quantity of water will be high, the last prediction I saw was 7.5". I've been through 17" in a night, peak of over 2.5" per hour.

It won't be a non-event, but it isn't nearly as bad as having an hurricane eye go up Florida.

I hope the storm turns south more. In particular as the mom is with my kids and she... isn't good with stress. But they aren't on the hotel ground floor. They have water. Knowing my daughters, they will have no issue getting food. Nor taking 5 flights of stairs. We do that for fun at hotels!

A little prep goes a long way.

NOAA is scheduled to report in 20 minutes. I predict a cat 3 downgrade.

Lightsaber
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lightsaber
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:48 pm

Hey, Lihue downgraded to near gale!
https://wind.willyweather.com/hi/kauai/ ... rport.html

I hope the rest of your loved ones are ok.

Late edit, I see many islands will see Gale force winds. They are scary. Be safe.
Winter is coming.
 
obelau24
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:05 pm

HA yesterday said they were going to send their Thursday afternoon bank out and hold all those wide bodies and A321s overnight (as normal) and then gauge whether to delay the returns on Friday. They’re parking 1 A330 and 5 717s in the HNL hangar and the rest of the 717s will be flown down to ITO or KOA (if I remember correctly) Thursday night.

UA, AA and DL said yesterday they were going to stay on schedule but I don’t know if those plans have changed - not sure if they want to follow their regular RON schedule and keep planes on the ground.

As far as the HNL airport, they’re following their emergency contingency plans but are not expecting to close. Worst case scenario and wave heights start to impact 8R, they’ll close 8R and use 8L for takeoffs which will restrict aircraft to 9,100 feet usable runway due to construction; that may affect payloads but again that’s a worst case scenario they’re not really anticipating.

I, myself, will enjoy the time off with some drinks and consider the wind and the rain a respite from the normal heat and humidity.
 
Judge1310
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:14 pm

UA has cancelled all flights in and out of OGG for the 24th and will delay the first two arrivals on the 24th at KOA. The other Hawaiian stations intend to operate as normal but still prepped for the storm should conditions quickly deteriorate.
 
xxcr
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:45 pm

UA added a 77W and 753 from HNL-SFO. Im not sure about the other hubs.
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:58 pm

Biggest issue with the storm is how slow it's moving before it dog legs west. That'll allow the rain to pile up and prolonged winds and storm surge.

But hey, might put out the volcano
 
Utah744
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:19 pm

[quote
But hey, might put out the volcano[/quote]

Steam
You are never too old to learn something stupid
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Fri Aug 24, 2018 1:30 am

Winds dropped to 125mph. It might not be much, but that is CAT 3. Worse than I hoped though. Sigh... Mid range CAT3 would have been 120mph...

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/
Winter is coming.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Fri Aug 24, 2018 1:31 am

Winds dropped to 125mph. It might not be much, but that is CAT 3. Worse than I hoped though. Sigh... Mid range CAT3 would have been 120mph...

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/
Winter is coming.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Fri Aug 24, 2018 1:38 am

Is HA planning on sending out its non-717 and ATR fleet to safe ground on the mainland or elsewhere in the South Pacific to wait out the storm?
 
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aloha73g
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:20 am

Reports that OGG has no electricity. Yikes!! HNL built its own power plant after the island wide outages in 2006 & 2008 caused havoc. Not good for all the flights trying to get out ASAP.

-Aloha!
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aloha73g
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:25 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
Is HA planning on sending out its non-717 and ATR fleet to safe ground on the mainland or elsewhere in the South Pacific to wait out the storm?

Probably to ITO and KOA as the storm creeps closer to HNL & OGG. During Iniki Aloha & HA both moved their fleets to ITO & KOA. A330s, 767s & A321s will stay on mainland until safe to fly back.

-Aloha!
Aloha Airlines - The Spirit Moves Us. Gone but NEVER Forgotten. Aloha, A Hui Hou!
 
tcfc424
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:32 am

mm320cap wrote:
RobK wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Late edit, peak winds at Lihue are now predicted at about 42mph,
About the same at Honolulu. Yesterday the prediction was sixty mph..


:roll: 42mph peak is nothing more than a stiff breeze. Why do all Americans get hysterical over this kind of nonsense and work themselves up into a lather? Even here in the UK where any weather out of the ordinary results in a media frenzy, winds of 42mph would not even be considered newsworthy except perhaps for the doom 'n' gloom Daily Express.

It will be a complete non-event.


Uhhh, Katrina?



Katrina. Are you serious? Katrina was barely a category 3 when she made landfall. The winds from Katrina (based on your quote about 42 mph winds) were not the issue with Katrina. In fact, the winds, despite being a very large cat 3 storm didn’t inflict that much damage. However, the sustained rainfall, which is absolutely relevant to this storm, was tremendous and obviously had devastating effects. The issue here is that Hawaii, while being in the middle of. Large tropical ocean, does not often see hurricanes. Understand, this is a very rare event. This isn’t like a hurricane hitting Florida in July. This is like a hurricane hitting New York in January.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:17 pm

Saw reports that 30 inches of rain fell on the Big Island. That sort of rain has the potential of being a disaster. It would be foolish not to prepare for a disaster when a major hurricane is coming close. It can be wind, trees falling, flooding, wave or surge damage, roads closed for days, medical emergencies that cannot be resolved quickly. And the other side of good preparations is that a lot of a disaster can be avoided by those preparations: More people ready, fewer people need the assistance of emergency teams, the faster they can respond. A virtuous circle.

Or pretend there may not be a problem.... we know how that goes.
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smokeybandit
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:20 pm

Utah744 wrote:
But hey, might put out the volcano


Steam


I did a little googling. APparently heavy rain + volcano is actually a really bad thing.
 
hnl808
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:37 pm

As of this morning the following flights have been cancelled to Hawaii:

I am unable to confirm whether or not these were due to the result of the weather or due to other reasons.

OGG
All UA flights to OGG
All morning arrivals and departures to OGG for AS

HNL Arrivals / Departures
HA 332 - ITO
HA 101 - ITO
HA 346 - OGG
HA 587 - KOA
NZ 9/10 - AKL
UA 902/903 - NRT
OY 232 - LAS
HA 11 - SFO
HA 43 - SJC
FJ 855/854 - APW
WS 1864/1865 - YVR

All Ohana by Hawaiian flights have been cancelled
 
ScottB
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:55 pm

tcfc424 wrote:
Katrina. Are you serious? Katrina was barely a category 3 when she made landfall. The winds from Katrina (based on your quote about 42 mph winds) were not the issue with Katrina. In fact, the winds, despite being a very large cat 3 storm didn’t inflict that much damage. However, the sustained rainfall, which is absolutely relevant to this storm, was tremendous and obviously had devastating effects.


The issue with Katrina wasn't rainfall, either. Despite being below sea level, the pumping stations in New Orleans would have been adequate to handle the volume of water from rainfall. New Orleans flooded because the levees and floodwalls breached in several places due to the storm surge -- either by overtopping (the earthen levees weren't tall enough and eroded when storm surge waters rose higher than the levee tops) or due to engineering failures in structural design (i.e. bad assumptions about soil strength). Apart from a hurricane being involved, there's really no parallel with Katrina here.

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Saw reports that 30 inches of rain fell on the Big Island. That sort of rain has the potential of being a disaster. It would be foolish not to prepare for a disaster when a major hurricane is coming close. It can be wind, trees falling, flooding, wave or surge damage, roads closed for days, medical emergencies that cannot be resolved quickly.


You'd expect a lot of rain thanks to the high mountains on the Big Island. The key is to get people away from rivers and streams which could rise several feet within minutes, as well as away from any potentially unstable hillsides which could come down. Given Hawaii's mountainous terrain, I expect multiple extended road closures due to rain-induced landslides.
 
MrBretz
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:06 pm

I was just scanning westhawaiitoday.com. It said there was little rain on the Kona side of the island but the Hilo side got 12-16 inches in spots. The belt road, near Kona, was closed for 2 hours because of a land slide. So it appears the Big Island got away with little damage. We'll have to wait and see if anything else happens. The Big Island is now under a tropical storm, not hurricane, warning.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:39 pm

MrBretz wrote:
I was just scanning westhawaiitoday.com. It said there was little rain on the Kona side of the island but the Hilo side got 12-16 inches in spots. The belt road, near Kona, was closed for 2 hours because of a land slide. So it appears the Big Island got away with little damage. We'll have to wait and see if anything else happens. The Big Island is now under a tropical storm, not hurricane, warning.

That is good news for the big Island.

Everyone:
I'm very interested in airport status.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
friendlyskies22
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:19 pm

Just drove by OGG, most ticket counters covered in plastic...no UA, AA ops today...havent heard what DL is doing....little rain at this morning, not much wind right now. West side (Lahaina) a mess with a brush fire, and the highway is closed around the Pali...
Gonna be a mess at OGG tomorrow trying to accomodate all the pax stuck here, including Standbys....most hotels full...
No visible damage seen this morning in the Kahului/wailuku area.
 
danj555
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:29 pm

I'm seeing so many flights still coming in. Most airlines seem to be riding it out.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:03 pm

lightsaber wrote:

Lightsaber



You mentioned before about what weather sites you trust.

I trust windy.com above all others. Lots of easily available information. For where they source their information: https://community.windy.com/topic/12/wh ... -windy-use

I mainly use it for the wind data (especially their prediction models which I have found to be extremely reliable and useful when flying/picking fly days), but they also have good radar data etc.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:20 pm

friendlyskies22 wrote:
Just drove by OGG, most ticket counters covered in plastic...no UA, AA ops today...havent heard what DL is doing....little rain at this morning, not much wind right now. West side (Lahaina) a mess with a brush fire, and the highway is closed around the Pali...
Gonna be a mess at OGG tomorrow trying to accomodate all the pax stuck here, including Standbys....most hotels full...
No visible damage seen this morning in the Kahului/wailuku area.

I want to encourage more on site reports. I thank you very much for this detail.

Who is and isn't flying in the islands and where is facinating.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
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usxguy
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:52 pm

Mokulele seems to be operating.

Interesting that a plane as puny as the Caravan is flying, while the "all-mighty" modern ATR-42-500/600s are grounded. Go figure. Kama'aina need to remember this.
xx
 
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airportugal310
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Fri Aug 24, 2018 10:09 pm

usxguy wrote:
Mokulele seems to be operating.

Interesting that a plane as puny as the Caravan is flying, while the "all-mighty" modern ATR-42-500/600s are grounded. Go figure. Kama'aina need to remember this.


Remember what exactly? That Hawaiian is running its full schedule of 717's?? How's that Mokulele flight to Hilo working out today? Oh wait.... :rotfl:
“They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into. I say, let 'em crash.”
 
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usxguy
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Fri Aug 24, 2018 10:10 pm

Show me a single Ohana flight that operated yesterday and today...

Thankfully Mokulele has quite the presence in MKK & JHM. I don't believe their LNY PC-12 flights are public.
xx
 
RushmoreAir
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Sat Aug 25, 2018 12:43 am

usxguy wrote:
Show me a single Ohana flight that operated yesterday and today...

Thankfully Mokulele has quite the presence in MKK & JHM. I don't believe their LNY PC-12 flights are public.


Unfortunately, the braking action of the ATRs on those short runways (especially JHM at 3000ft/914m) is quite poor under wet conditions ... it's why the AT42 flights cancel after any significant amount of rain.
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DaveFly
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Sat Aug 25, 2018 1:38 am

My sister flew on HA JFK-HNL-LIH yesterday. She said it was smooth on both flights, even on the approaches. Her big takeaway was that there were so many empty seats. She drove around Kauai today and said a lot of preparations were in place. As for precipitation, she said it’s raining on and off.
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hnl808
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Sat Aug 25, 2018 3:48 am

Well the good news is that as of 1700 HST Hurricane Lane has been down graded to a Tropical Storm.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Lane&stormid=ep142018
 
MrBretz
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Sat Aug 25, 2018 5:44 am

And it appears the storm has headed to the west missing the main islands. Rain is still expected. I would imagine a normal travel day Saturday.
 
77H
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:48 am

airportugal310 wrote:
usxguy wrote:
Mokulele seems to be operating.

Interesting that a plane as puny as the Caravan is flying, while the "all-mighty" modern ATR-42-500/600s are grounded. Go figure. Kama'aina need to remember this.


Remember what exactly? That Hawaiian is running its full schedule of 717's?? How's that Mokulele flight to Hilo working out today? Oh wait.... :rotfl:


I’d imagine KOA and MUE were operating still giving people access to the big island even if inconvenient. If MW stopped service to places like MKK, LNY or JHM today there no other options with ‘Ohana down. Honoapiilani was inpassible due to the fire. Now what? MW has a vital role in the market. We get it, you love your company but your snotty rebuttals are a disservice and you should be thinking of the community that HA and MW serve.

77H
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Sat Aug 25, 2018 1:58 pm

DaveFly wrote:
My sister flew on HA JFK-HNL-LIH yesterday. She said it was smooth on both flights, even on the approaches. Her big takeaway was that there were so many empty seats. She drove around Kauai today and said a lot of preparations were in place. As for precipitation, she said it’s raining on and off.

Thank you! My kids are near LIH today, so for the northern most island, not bad. :)

Better to be prepared than in trouble. Back to normal.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
Pyrex
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Sun Aug 26, 2018 1:52 pm

So my flight from LAX to KOA made it with no significant incidences - smooth flight most of the way, and little headwinds (flight was only 5 hours), but a bumpy approach, which we were foreworned about (good thing we were, and I was wearing my seatbelt as a result, otherwise the ceiling of the 737-900ER would have a nasty headbutt wound from when we got that air pocket...). Only 30 people on-board, though - not sure if there were a lot of cancellations or if Saturday afternoon loads are always light.
Read this very carefully, I shall write this only once!
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1726
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Sun Aug 26, 2018 2:12 pm

tcfc424 wrote:
mm320cap wrote:
RobK wrote:

:roll: 42mph peak is nothing more than a stiff breeze. Why do all Americans get hysterical over this kind of nonsense and work themselves up into a lather? Even here in the UK where any weather out of the ordinary results in a media frenzy, winds of 42mph would not even be considered newsworthy except perhaps for the doom 'n' gloom Daily Express.

It will be a complete non-event.


Uhhh, Katrina?



Katrina. Are you serious? Katrina was barely a category 3 when she made landfall. The winds from Katrina (based on your quote about 42 mph winds) were not the issue with Katrina. In fact, the winds, despite being a very large cat 3 storm didn’t inflict that much damage. However, the sustained rainfall, which is absolutely relevant to this storm, was tremendous and obviously had devastating effects. The issue here is that Hawaii, while being in the middle of. Large tropical ocean, does not often see hurricanes. Understand, this is a very rare event. This isn’t like a hurricane hitting Florida in July. This is like a hurricane hitting New York in January.

The winds from Katrina did quite a bit of damage in Mississippi.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1726
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Sun Aug 26, 2018 2:15 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

Lightsaber



You mentioned before about what weather sites you trust.

I trust windy.com above all others. Lots of easily available information. For where they source their information: https://community.windy.com/topic/12/wh ... -windy-use

I mainly use it for the wind data (especially their prediction models which I have found to be extremely reliable and useful when flying/picking fly days), but they also have good radar data etc.

I like weather.gov (NWS). You can learn a lot by reading the forecast discussion.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
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usxguy
Posts: 1891
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Re: Hurricane Lane and Hawaii

Sun Aug 26, 2018 3:23 pm

my comments regarding Mokulele is because some people will claim the Caravan isnt "as safe or reliable" as Ohana (Ive actually heard this). MW was the *first* Part 135 carrier to require 2 pilots AND have a separate Flight Following (think Dispatch without the FAA legalese) department. They operate more like Ohana than the common person realizes.

MW likes to operate until its no longer safe or legal, rather than cancel on weather speculation.
xx

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