danj555
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise Close to a Go

Tue May 07, 2019 4:37 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
Erebus wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
My guess is Airbus puts bragging rights above profit and does what is necessary to get the order.


So you've already determined that if Airbus wins, they're selling it at a loss?


No, I am not necessarily making that assumption. What i am saying is I believe the prestige of winning Project Sunrise means more to Airbus than Boeing, hence Airbus will not be as concerned regarding the bottom line.

I readily stipulate my statement is pure speculation. The 778 is the obvious choice in my mind, but I think it is a given Airbus wants the bragging rights. I guess we'll all know soon enough.


Means more to Airbus that Boeing?
Is the 35K a ULH thoroughbred? No.
Is the 778? Yes.

This loss means more to Boeing because if this bespoke plane can't do what it's designed to do then the 778 program will have suffered a significant failure. The 35K will go on fine without this sale.

Others have made this same comment...
 
aerohottie
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise Close to a Go

Tue May 07, 2019 4:56 am

danj555 wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Erebus wrote:

So you've already determined that if Airbus wins, they're selling it at a loss?


No, I am not necessarily making that assumption. What i am saying is I believe the prestige of winning Project Sunrise means more to Airbus than Boeing, hence Airbus will not be as concerned regarding the bottom line.

I readily stipulate my statement is pure speculation. The 778 is the obvious choice in my mind, but I think it is a given Airbus wants the bragging rights. I guess we'll all know soon enough.


Means more to Airbus that Boeing?
Is the 35K a ULH thoroughbred? No.
Is the 778? Yes.

This loss means more to Boeing because if this bespoke plane can't do what it's designed to do then the 778 program will have suffered a significant failure. The 35K will go on fine without this sale.

Others have made this same comment...

I would say that the 787, A350 and 777 are all ULR thoroughbreds, but not every horse can win the derby
What?
 
rj777
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 5:12 am

Is there any chance of a split order?
 
DeltaB717
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 5:40 am

rj777 wrote:
Is there any chance of a split order?


Very unlikely, given the small numbers. Project Sunrise will be a single type fleet.

And actually, that goes to an earlier question of why QF couldn't/wouldn't operate a mixed fleet (i.e. A350 and B777) like many of the Asian carriers do. Pure scale. SQ, CX and the like operate fleets of >100 aircraft consisting solely or primarily of widebodies, so there's a natural opportunity for them to create scale with each type. I (cautiously) agree with an earlier comment that some of the JQ 788s will end up with QF by virtue of the A321LR order, and yet another post calculated that only ~30 widebody aircraft require replacement in the QF fleet. So, if some JQ 788s come to QF, and QF (logically) order additional 789s and/or 787-10s to cover a lot of the A330 network, then to my mind it stands to reason there wouldn't be more than maybe 15-20 aircraft in the larger widebody fleet, encompassing Project Sunrise and replacements for A380s/some 747s/some A330s.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 6:02 am

The right outcome is far from obvious here and there is no "obvious choice." Anyone saying there is, IMO, has blinders on.

These are two quite different products with different advantages. The differences encompass both the ULH-specific variant that has been proposed for Project Sunrise (A350-1000ULR for Airbus, 777-8 for Boeing) and the further family members that each ULH choice unlocks ("cooking" A350-1000 for Airbus, 777-9 for Boeing). They go far beyond the question of which aircraft can carry X payload or burn Y fuel on a SYD-LHR flight, and have fundamental implications for the airline's long-haul strategy. How long can the A380s remain economical? Is it more profitable to chase volume or yield on trunk routes? Is there a return in building more spokes? All of these questions have direct implications for whether the A350 or 777X will suit Qantas's needs better.

Honestly if the airline were larger it could use both, but I agree with those above who say the airline is too small to make a split order work.
 
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue May 07, 2019 6:31 am

zeke wrote:
Also if QF did go with the 777, BA could steal their thunder an operate the A350 over the route offering faster flight times. If people are taking the flight for the faster times, any improvement would have to have some tangible value to the same passengers.


Huh? The A350 proposed by Airbus to Qantas for Project Sunrise is a highly modified version and doesn’t exist yet. BA’s A350s don’t/won’t have these modifications, therefore cannot operate nonstop LHR <> SYD.

Am I missing something?
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flee
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 6:55 am

Yes, it is far from clear what QF will order.

If the order is to make sense for the OEMs, it has to be a combined fleet for Project Sunrise and B744/A388 replacement. That will probably mean a total of 30+ aircraft, with a subfleet of 6 or so aircraft for Project Sunrise.

Both A350 and B777X families are in contention. It will be a question of which OEM makes better sense to QF.
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 6:58 am

seabosdca wrote:
The right outcome is far from obvious here and there is no "obvious choice." Anyone saying there is, IMO, has blinders on.

These are two quite different products with different advantages. The differences encompass both the ULH-specific variant that has been proposed for Project Sunrise (A350-1000ULR for Airbus, 777-8 for Boeing) and the further family members that each ULH choice unlocks ("cooking" A350-1000 for Airbus, 777-9 for Boeing). They go far beyond the question of which aircraft can carry X payload or burn Y fuel on a SYD-LHR flight, and have fundamental implications for the airline's long-haul strategy. How long can the A380s remain economical? Is it more profitable to chase volume or yield on trunk routes? Is there a return in building more spokes? All of these questions have direct implications for whether the A350 or 777X will suit Qantas's needs better.

Honestly if the airline were larger it could use both, but I agree with those above who say the airline is too small to make a split order work.


The most reasonable post on this topic by far! Well said!

There are too many emotion-based opinions on this thread, even from members who should and do know better.

As you mention, there are so many variables in this decision for QF.

Also, a fleet decision like this will cost hundreds of millions to billions and have long-term implications (aircraft aren't easily dispensable and with QF, could be around for 20 years).
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zeke
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue May 07, 2019 7:01 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
Yes, the A359 is more capable than the 787. It is also 36,000 pounds heavier. You pay for that increased capability.

The 778 is more capable than the A350, yet it also has a weight penalty. You cannot have your cake and eat it too.


I see you did the maths to work out the difference between the A350 and 787 at MTOW, but not for the 777-8. The 777-8 at MTOW is heavier than an A350-900 plus a 737-700 together at MTOW. A better exercise would be to compare them at the design ZFW, the A350 at design ZFW is less than the empty weight of the 777-8.

For a given range, with similar propulsion and aerodynamic properties, the fuel required increases exponentially as ZFW increases.

aerohottie wrote:
but not every horse can win the derby


With no regulatory approval to operate sectors of this length, unknown number of crew required, if it will ever be approved, and no contract in place with crews to operate such long flights. This is still far from being a race at all.

vhtje wrote:

Huh? The A350 proposed by Airbus to Qantas for Project Sunrise is a highly modified version and doesn’t exist yet. BA’s A350s don’t/won’t have these modifications, therefore cannot operate nonstop LHR <> SYD.

Am I missing something?


It is me that is missing a few things
1) how highly modified of an A350-900 is SQ using for ULH, the aircraft that apparently can be converted simply back to a standard A350-900
2) what does this highly modified Project Sunrise A350 comprise of ?
3) are you saying the 777-8 needs no modification at all ?
4) when did BA receive all of their A350s ?
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moa999
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 7:14 am

flee wrote:
combined fleet for Project Sunrise and B744/A388 replacement. That will probably mean a total of 30+ aircraft, .


Nowhere near that in the short term.

The 747s (shortly 7 left) are basically being replaced by the remaining 6 787 orders albeit will leave QF a little short for the 20/21 summer season compared to prior years.

The 12 A380s are about to have a very expensive refurb so will be flying well into the late 2020s.

Even the oldest 332 is 2002 delivery and 333 late 2003.
 
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue May 07, 2019 7:18 am

zeke wrote:
waly777 wrote:
This won't be the current 777. How about you wait and see like everyone else? It hasn't even flown yet.


The wing isn’t changing that much, it will be like the 747-8, and 737NG


It is changing significantly enough to require 20,000lbs less max thrust and the 737-NG cruises faster than the classics (.78 vs .74) :smile:
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue May 07, 2019 7:32 am

waly777 wrote:
It is changing significantly enough to require 20,000lbs less max thrust and the 737-NG cruises faster than the classics (.78 vs .74) :smile:


The 77X wing has 20% more area and increased span (less induced drag) means less thrust is required for takeoff. That is the reason for less thrust for takeoff, the takeoff thrust installed has little to do with cruise speed. Cruise speed will be determined by wing sweep (wave drag) and the additional skin friction drag (wing and fuselage). It does have larger span, but the dominant drag in cruise is skin friction which results in increased drag with an increase in speed.
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue May 07, 2019 7:35 am

zeke wrote:
vhtje wrote:

Huh? The A350 proposed by Airbus to Qantas for Project Sunrise is a highly modified version and doesn’t exist yet. BA’s A350s don’t/won’t have these modifications, therefore cannot operate nonstop LHR <> SYD.

Am I missing something?


It is me that is missing a few things
1) how highly modified of an A350-900 is SQ using for ULH, the aircraft that apparently can be converted simply back to a standard A350-900
2) what does this highly modified Project Sunrise A350 comprise of ?
3) are you saying the 777-8 needs no modification at all ?
4) when did BA receive all of their A350s ?



1) I have no idea how the Project Sunrise A350 differs from SQ’s A350-900ULH aircraft.
2) See above. As far as I know, neither manufacturer has made public the detail of how they will modify their respective designs to meet Project Sunrise.
3) No, of course not. I didn’t write that at all. Not sure how you extrapolated that from my post!
4) BA receive their first A350 in late August. The first aircraft is almost complete - there are photos of it on the internet - hence my use of current tense “does not”. At any rate, it is an A350-1000, not an A350-900, so it has a shorter range.
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AirwayBill
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue May 07, 2019 7:40 am

waly777 wrote:
zeke wrote:
waly777 wrote:
This won't be the current 777. How about you wait and see like everyone else? It hasn't even flown yet.


The wing isn’t changing that much, it will be like the 747-8, and 737NG


It is changing significantly enough to require 20,000lbs less max thrust and the 737-NG cruises faster than the classics (.78 vs .74) :smile:


I've come across a piece of official Boeing 777X advertisement material less than a year ago (which I have to find back), as surprising as it might be, mach number on that particular ad for the 777-9 was forecasted 0.83. Not anywhere close to the standard M0.85 that we have today for widebody, long-range jetliners.

Haven't found any info about 777X cruise speed anywhere else. Curious as to why Boeing doesn't communicate more about it, as it is a basic key specification for a commercial jet that is about to take to the skies for the first time soon.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 7:40 am

jfk777 wrote:
Which airplane is it that Qantas uses on their Perth to London flight, the 787-9 of course.


What airplane does Qantas not have in their fleet : The A350 :-)
it is difficult to use something that you don't own.

Qantas made their 787 decision very early on when the frames were "gifted away" by Boeing.
At the time the A350XWB was not defined.
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moa999
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 7:41 am

Airbus is putting forward a 350-1000 to meet QFs pax number targets. The SQ aircraft is also only PE and J, a config that wouldn't work for QF.
 
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zeke
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue May 07, 2019 7:42 am

vhtje wrote:
1) I have no idea how the Project Sunrise A350 differs from SQ’s A350-900ULH aircraft.
2) See above. As far as I know, neither manufacturer has made public the detail of how they will modify their respective designs to meet Project Sunrise.
3) No, of course not. I didn’t write that at all. Not sure how you extrapolated that from my post!
4) BA receive their first A350 in late August. The first aircraft is almost complete - there are photos of it on the internet - hence my use of current tense “does not”. At any rate, it is an A350-1000, not an A350-900, so it has a shorter range.


So you have no idea, but feel qualified to state that Airbus will be spending large sums to offer and A350 for Sunrise.

The nominal range for the standard A350-900 is 8100 nm, for the A350-1000 is 8400 nm.
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enzo011
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue May 07, 2019 7:51 am

vhtje wrote:
Huh? The A350 proposed by Airbus to Qantas for Project Sunrise is a highly modified version and doesn’t exist yet. BA’s A350s don’t/won’t have these modifications, therefore cannot operate nonstop LHR <> SYD.

Am I missing something?



Well the argument seems to be that if Qantas goes with the 778 for this mission and Airbus has proposed a workable A350 that can achieve the same mission but with less flying time, nothing is stopping BA from ordering this proposed model by Airbus to do the same mission. They have the orders already so changing the model they have on order to a ULR should be easily done. That is if flying time is an issue for passengers. I doubt Qantas would be able to stop Airbus offering the model to other airlines if they don't commit to buying the frame.

That also assumes that BA would have the same costs as Qantas would on the route to make it feasible.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 7:53 am

I would think there would be a slight edge to the 777-8/9 since the same pilot pool can fly the 777 and 787.
 
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue May 07, 2019 8:00 am

zeke wrote:
waly777 wrote:
It is changing significantly enough to require 20,000lbs less max thrust and the 737-NG cruises faster than the classics (.78 vs .74) :smile:


The 77X wing has 20% more area and increased span (less induced drag) means less thrust is required for takeoff. That is the reason for less thrust for takeoff, the takeoff thrust installed has little to do with cruise speed. Cruise speed will be determined by wing sweep (wave drag) and the additional skin friction drag (wing and fuselage). It does have larger span, but the dominant drag in cruise is skin friction which results in increased drag with an increase in speed.


In other words, it is not a regular 777 and neither you nor I know what it's cruise speed will be. i.e. we all wait like everyone else before assuming the cruise speed will be the same :smile:
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 8:03 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
I would think there would be a slight edge to the 777-8/9 since the same pilot pool can fly the 777 and 787.



If Wikipedia numbers are correct, Qantas operates 40 Airbus aircraft (A330 and A380) and 16 Boeing widebodies. The pilot pool would be a wash at best for either model I think.
 
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vhtje
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue May 07, 2019 8:15 am

zeke wrote:
vhtje wrote:
1) I have no idea how the Project Sunrise A350 differs from SQ’s A350-900ULH aircraft.
2) See above. As far as I know, neither manufacturer has made public the detail of how they will modify their respective designs to meet Project Sunrise.
3) No, of course not. I didn’t write that at all. Not sure how you extrapolated that from my post!
4) BA receive their first A350 in late August. The first aircraft is almost complete - there are photos of it on the internet - hence my use of current tense “does not”. At any rate, it is an A350-1000, not an A350-900, so it has a shorter range.


So you have no idea, but feel qualified to state that Airbus will be spending large sums to offer and A350 for Sunrise.

The nominal range for the standard A350-900 is 8100 nm, for the A350-1000 is 8400 nm.


I don’t understand why you’re attacking me. Where in my post did I state Airbus was spending a single penny, let alone large sums? At this point, both proposals are paper aircraft. I am sure that both manufacturers will only propose solutions that make economic sense for them to offer. Someone further up the thread posted the range required for Sunrise is 9500nm in still air. Therefore, both manufacturers’ current designs will need modification in order to meet this. Again, this is stated further up this thread.

My point in my original reply to you is: BA’s A350-1000 don’t have that range, so BA can’t “steal their thunder”. Unless you know something we don’t?

Just to be clear I am not for, or against, either manufacturer. May the best design win. I have no vested interest in the outcome, except as a passenger between London and Australia, which I do every year. But, more importantly, I am fascinated at how the manufacturers are responding to this challenge, and how this will shape aviation in the future - I think we are on the cusp of something that will truly change air travel.
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue May 07, 2019 8:16 am

waly777 wrote:
In other words, it is not a regular 777 and neither you nor I know what it's cruise speed will be. i.e. we all wait like everyone else before assuming the cruise speed will be the same :smile:


Considering we have already flown the aircraft, ie the simulator at Boeing and it’s been though our flight planning system. I would suggest I have a good handle on what it would do over our network.
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 8:19 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
I would think there would be a slight edge to the 777-8/9 since the same pilot pool can fly the 777 and 787.


You can also easily transfare pilot pool from a330/380 to A350.

778 should be perfect for SYD-PER-SYD missions but if you also need use the aircraft for shorter missions on a network A351 could be favorable.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 8:23 am

enzo011 wrote:
If Wikipedia numbers are correct, Qantas operates 40 Airbus aircraft (A330 and A380) and 16 Boeing widebodies. The pilot pool would be a wash at best for either model I think.


330 and 380 pilots could fly the 350 at the same time either through common type rating or mixed fleet flying. The pilot contract currently has no provision to fly such long sectors, nor common type rating (787/777) (330/350) or MFF 330/380, 350/380.

Their pay scales are largely size driven so I don’t see a common scale being introduced.
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majano
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue May 07, 2019 9:28 am

vhtje wrote:
zeke wrote:
vhtje wrote:

Huh? The A350 proposed by Airbus to Qantas for Project Sunrise is a highly modified version and doesn’t exist yet. BA’s A350s don’t/won’t have these modifications, therefore cannot operate nonstop LHR <> SYD.

Am I missing something?


It is me that is missing a few things
1) how highly modified of an A350-900 is SQ using for ULH, the aircraft that apparently can be converted simply back to a standard A350-900
2) what does this highly modified Project Sunrise A350 comprise of ?
3) are you saying the 777-8 needs no modification at all ?
4) when did BA receive all of their A350s ?



1) I have no idea how the Project Sunrise A350 differs from SQ’s A350-900ULH aircraft.
2) See above. As far as I know, neither manufacturer has made public the detail of how they will modify their respective designs to meet Project Sunrise.
3) No, of course not. I didn’t write that at all. Not sure how you extrapolated that from my post!
4) BA receive their first A350 in late August. The first aircraft is almost complete - there are photos of it on the internet - hence my use of current tense “does not”. At any rate, it is an A350-1000, not an A350-900, so it has a shorter range.

The term "highly modified" can be traced back to your post. I don't want to take sides in this squabble though...
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 10:32 am

WIederling wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Which airplane is it that Qantas uses on their Perth to London flight, the 787-9 of course.


What airplane does Qantas not have in their fleet : The A350 :-)
it is difficult to use something that you don't own.

Qantas made their 787 decision very early on when the frames were "gifted away" by Boeing.
At the time the A350XWB was not defined.


Qantas cancelled their original order for the 787 and when they did re-order it was mission specific for PER/LHR. Of course it was always going to be used for other routes, but they made it clear that PER/LHR was the bench mark for the aircraft. Also I'm pretty sure when they did go back to the 787 the 350 was available, so it could've been ordered then if they had wanted it.
 
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue May 07, 2019 11:02 am

zeke wrote:
waly777 wrote:
In other words, it is not a regular 777 and neither you nor I know what it's cruise speed will be. i.e. we all wait like everyone else before assuming the cruise speed will be the same :smile:


Considering we have already flown the aircraft, ie the simulator at Boeing and it’s been though our flight planning system. I would suggest I have a good handle on what it would do over our network.


:) and considering we ordered the AC right before yours did, we have access to similar information. Cruise speed is still not finalised.
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Mrakula
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 11:06 am

jupiter2 wrote:
WIederling wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Which airplane is it that Qantas uses on their Perth to London flight, the 787-9 of course.


What airplane does Qantas not have in their fleet : The A350 :-)
it is difficult to use something that you don't own.

Qantas made their 787 decision very early on when the frames were "gifted away" by Boeing.
At the time the A350XWB was not defined.


Qantas cancelled their original order for the 787 and when they did re-order it was mission specific for PER/LHR. Of course it was always going to be used for other routes, but they made it clear that PER/LHR was the bench mark for the aircraft. Also I'm pretty sure when they did go back to the 787 the 350 was available, so it could've been ordered then if they had wanted it.


No. Qantas did not cancel whole order but reduced number of ordered aircrafts. In time B789 was order, there had not been any hint of PER-LHR-PER operation.
 
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue May 07, 2019 11:12 am

vhtje wrote:
I don’t understand why you’re attacking me.


He's not attacking you, but the apparently contradictory comments you're making.

You said: "The A350 proposed by Airbus to Qantas for Project Sunrise is a highly modified version and doesn’t exist yet."

Then you said: "1) I have no idea how the Project Sunrise A350 differs from SQ’s A350-900ULH aircraft.
2) See above. As far as I know, neither manufacturer has made public the detail of how they will modify their respective designs to meet Project Sunrise.
"

So is it 'highly modified' or not?

vhtje wrote:
At any rate, it is an A350-1000, not an A350-900, so it has a shorter range.


Wrong - the -1000 has greater range than the -900.
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zeke
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue May 07, 2019 11:46 am

waly777 wrote:

:) and considering we ordered the AC right before yours did, we have access to similar information. Cruise speed is still not finalised.


Hogwash, cruise speed is well known. If your airline has purchased the aircraft, they would already have the performance database.
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cledaybuck
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 12:11 pm

jupiter2 wrote:

For the vast majority of routes there is no way a 787 should be considered as a direct competitor to the 350,
For the vast majority of routes, they absolutely are competitors.
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 12:35 pm

My models suggest that:
The A3510 would need a TOW of ~333t and use ~142t of fuel
The 778 would need TOW of 355t and use 144t of fuel (with same engine SFC)
with 4% better SFC the 778 needs TOW of 348t and uses 137t of fuel

Assumptions in model:
SYD-LHR with alternate of MAN
Headwind of 40kts
Payload of 30t
A351 DOW of 153t
B778 DOW of 173t

Fred
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SEPilot
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 2:03 pm

Since the 778 has quite a bit more range and capacity at the outset Boeing will have an easier task meeting QR’s requirements. That is really the only edge I see Boeing having. If Airbus can improve the range of the A3510 enough and keep enough capacity they have a shot. Airbus thinks they can, otherwise they would not be competing. Overall, the A350 has an advantage of a lighter fuselage; the 778 overcomes that by being larger. I see a slight advantage for Boeing on this, but it could go either way.
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 2:52 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
My models suggest that:
The A3510 would need a TOW of ~333t and use ~142t of fuel
The 778 would need TOW of 355t and use 144t of fuel (with same engine SFC)
with 4% better SFC the 778 needs TOW of 348t and uses 137t of fuel

Assumptions in model:
SYD-LHR with alternate of MAN
Headwind of 40kts
Payload of 30t
A351 DOW of 153t
B778 DOW of 173t

Fred


Something is wrong with your model.

QF don’t use alternates, arrive with 70 minutes of endurance. DOW of the 35K is too high, 778 should be over 20 tonnes heavier.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
NZ321
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue May 07, 2019 2:53 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
VV wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Because that's the route a lot of customers with the cash for non-stops want to travel.

This is purely an opinion, but I do not think it is a viable direct route.

Perhaps, but (based on phraseology) it seems you're looking at the route in a vacuum, and not considering the opportunity cost..... i.e. how badly does it hurt QF to *not* do so?

Do they continue bleeding Euro pax to the ME3, BA, SE Asian carriers, even the Chinese in the future? Does this flight allow them to tap premium channels that those competitors can't effectively poach? Etc.

The fact that they're so determined to do this-- points to all of the above being considerable factors.


Good point indeed and one on my mind too.
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NZ321
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 2:56 pm

Also don't forget the possible transfer of lost deposits on the a380s recently cancelled from the order book. We wait and see. Gonna be interesting for sure. Also NZ decision looming next few weeks.
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timtam
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 3:07 pm

Aside from all the A v B stuff, this is a capital investment and the decision may hinge on the financial terms on offer. QF will be looking at which option gives it the best return on the capital that is invested. We will never know what prices and what other inducements are being offered and these may be the deciding factor in this decision.
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 3:08 pm

zeke wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
My models suggest that:
The A3510 would need a TOW of ~333t and use ~142t of fuel
The 778 would need TOW of 355t and use 144t of fuel (with same engine SFC)
with 4% better SFC the 778 needs TOW of 348t and uses 137t of fuel

Assumptions in model:
SYD-LHR with alternate of MAN
Headwind of 40kts
Payload of 30t
A351 DOW of 153t
B778 DOW of 173t

Fred


Something is wrong with your model.

QF don’t use alternates, arrive with 70 minutes of endurance. DOW of the 35K is too high, 778 should be over 20 tonnes heavier.


Thanks Zeke, My model only currently does alternates (it does a flight in reverse and adds the fuel back in as it flies, current model has it do a divert that I can specify at 30kft and does 1 missed approach where it gets to 0ft and flies for 20mins at 10kft) does the QF method require the aircraft to descend make and approach and then fly for a further 70minutes to an airfield. I can easily set the divert field to the same in the model and have the "missed approach time" changed from 20mins to 70 mins, what would be a reasonable altitude for this 70mins to occur at?

I have struggled to find data on the 778 but if you are able would you be able to specify a more accurate figure for the DOW of the A351 (I understand it might be fairly sensitive). I used the 148t + 5t catering for the A351 and 168t+5t catering for the 778.

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zeke
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise Close to a Go

Tue May 07, 2019 3:08 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:

Why so thin skinned? The 778 is a much more capable aircraft than the A350. It can fly more payload farther. This is not difficult to understand. Airbus fans make the same point regarding the A350 versus the 787 and they are correct.

The 778 can do Project Sunrise without a lot of modification. The A350 will need much more modification because it is not as capable.


Just to put this false view of reality to bed, the nominal design payload and range quoted by the manufacturers for the aircraft are

777-8 360 pax 8690 nm
A350-1000 366 pax 8400 nm
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
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Aquila3
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 3:16 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
My models suggest that:
The A3510 would need a TOW of ~333t and use ~142t of fuel
The 778 would need TOW of 355t and use 144t of fuel (with same engine SFC)
with 4% better SFC the 778 needs TOW of 348t and uses 137t of fuel

Assumptions in model:
SYD-LHR with alternate of MAN
Headwind of 40kts
Payload of 30t
A351 DOW of 153t
B778 DOW of 173t

Fred

From you model I see that the 778 is a heck of efficient frame ! Even with a DOW of 20t (15%) more of the 35K , it takes almost the same fuel (only 1.5% more) with same SFC engines and a lot less with your 4% advantage.
Airbus must have got this stretch very wrong, if it cannot compete with a shortened version of the 777X , even on fuel.
Thinks being like that, I do not see why QF is taking so long to decide.
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Arion640
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise Close to a Go

Tue May 07, 2019 3:24 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
This will come down to which manufacturer is willing to make the most concessions and spend the most money to appease Qantas. This will not be about profits, it will be about bragging rights.

The 778 will be the most capable plane in the world. With the right tweaks it can do Project Sunrise fairly easily. The A350 family does not have the same payload capability as the 778, but it can do the mission if Airbus spends the money and pushes the frame to the max.

My guess is Airbus puts bragging rights above profit and does what is necessary to get the order. I think they are much more likely to want bragging rights than Boeing, which has always put profit and share holder value above Airbus.

I could be wrong, but one team is for show (Airbus) and one is for dough (Boeing). We'll all see how it plays out soon enough.


Do Airbus really put bragging rights above profit and share holder value? They’ve just canned their flagship project and the largest passenger airliner in the world.


And lost billions on their flagship project purely based on ego and bragging rights. Airbus wanted their iconic queen of the skies like Boeing's 747 and built the A380 even though every market analysis but theirs said it would bomb.

Friend, you made the point for me. :D Airbus is considerably less profitable than Boeing precisely because they have made business decisions based on ego and bragging rights. Qantas is waving the cheese right under their nose. I say Airbus is the rat that cannot resist.
We'll see. :D


Exactly - that old style of management with the bigger ego’s has gone, hence the A380 canned. They’ve also said there’s a focus on margins moving forward instead of chasing market share. Anyway, like you said, we’ll see.
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 3:25 pm

timtam wrote:
Aside from all the A v B stuff, this is a capital investment and the decision may hinge on the financial terms on offer. QF will be looking at which option gives it the best return on the capital that is invested. We will never know what prices and what other inducements are being offered and these may be the deciding factor in this decision.


Very true, and it might not happen at all. It is time for contract talks with AIPA, I may be too cynical these days however it almost feels like they are setting AIPA up to take the fall for this not going ahead.

FYI list prices
A350-1000 US$366.5 million
777-8 US$410.2 million

flipdewaf wrote:
My model only currently does alternates (it does a flight in reverse and adds the fuel back in as it flies, current model has it do a divert that I can specify at 30kft and does 1 missed approach where it gets to 0ft and flies for 20mins at 10kft) does the QF method require the aircraft to descend make and approach and then fly for a further 70minutes to an airfield. I can easily set the divert field to the same in the model and have the "missed approach time" changed from 20mins to 70 mins, what would be a reasonable altitude for this 70mins to occur at?


The 35K DOW you have is higher than what we have with 334 seats.

Should be approach, missed approach, once reaching 1500 ft hold for 70 minutes then zero fuel. That figure for 70 minutes of holding fuel should be under 6 tonnes for the 35K.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
waly777
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue May 07, 2019 3:29 pm

zeke wrote:
waly777 wrote:

:) and considering we ordered the AC right before yours did, we have access to similar information. Cruise speed is still not finalised.


Hogwash, cruise speed is well known. If your airline has purchased the aircraft, they would already have the performance database.


Those are preliminary figures, i.e. not finalised.

Sighs* I'm assuming comprehension of my previous statement might be a challenge and will end the conversation here.
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Francoflier
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 3:43 pm

Aquila3 wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
My models suggest that:
The A3510 would need a TOW of ~333t and use ~142t of fuel
The 778 would need TOW of 355t and use 144t of fuel (with same engine SFC)
with 4% better SFC the 778 needs TOW of 348t and uses 137t of fuel

Assumptions in model:
SYD-LHR with alternate of MAN
Headwind of 40kts
Payload of 30t
A351 DOW of 153t
B778 DOW of 173t

Fred

From you model I see that the 778 is a heck of efficient frame ! Even with a DOW of 20t (15%) more of the 35K , it takes almost the same fuel (only 1.5% more) with same SFC engines and a lot less with your 4% advantage.
Airbus must have got this stretch very wrong, if it cannot compete with a shortened version of the 777X , even on fuel.
Thinks being like that, I do not see why QF is taking so long to decide.



I very, VERY much doubt that the 778 would only require only 2T more fuel to carry 20T more along the way... that would require the kind of engine efficiency that will likely come with the next generation of wide-body sized GTFs, or some other major design evolution. My guess would be closer to 10T difference in burn at the very least.
Whether the A350 would burn less or the 778 would burn more (or both), I don't know, but the difference would be higher.
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zeke
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue May 07, 2019 3:50 pm

waly777 wrote:
Those are preliminary figures, i.e. not finalised.

Sighs* I'm assuming comprehension of my previous statement might be a challenge and will end the conversation here.


Cruise speed is a fundamental design parameter used by both the engine and airframe manufacturers for the preliminary and detailed design. What the flight testing should deliver is only minor performance adjustments if the engineers have done their sums well (backed up by CFD, wind tunnel, and engine flight testing) in the first place.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise Close to a Go

Tue May 07, 2019 4:54 pm

zeke wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:

Why so thin skinned? The 778 is a much more capable aircraft than the A350. It can fly more payload farther. This is not difficult to understand. Airbus fans make the same point regarding the A350 versus the 787 and they are correct.

The 778 can do Project Sunrise without a lot of modification. The A350 will need much more modification because it is not as capable.


Just to put this false view of reality to bed, the nominal design payload and range quoted by the manufacturers for the aircraft are

777-8 360 pax 8690 nm
A350-1000 366 pax 8400 nm


The statement was the 778 can fly more payload farther than the A 350. Nothing you posted contradicts anything I said.
Last edited by ElroyJetson on Tue May 07, 2019 5:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ITSTours
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 5:07 pm

First I thought 778 would be the choice as it will carry more payload, but now I think 35KULR actually does make sense. The route does not seem to require a lot payload. 250-ish seats will be good enough supply and cargo does not need to be flying nonstop.
 
marcelh
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise Close to a Go

Tue May 07, 2019 5:31 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
zeke wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:

Why so thin skinned? The 778 is a much more capable aircraft than the A350. It can fly more payload farther. This is not difficult to understand. Airbus fans make the same point regarding the A350 versus the 787 and they are correct.

The 778 can do Project Sunrise without a lot of modification. The A350 will need much more modification because it is not as capable.


Just to put this false view of reality to bed, the nominal design payload and range quoted by the manufacturers for the aircraft are

777-8 360 pax 8690 nm
A350-1000 366 pax 8400 nm


The statement was the 778 can fly more payload than the A 350. Nothing you posted contradicts anything I said.

In general your posts not only telling us what you are actually saying, but a lot more between the lines....
 
musman9853
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 5:57 pm

enzo011 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
I would think there would be a slight edge to the 777-8/9 since the same pilot pool can fly the 777 and 787.



If Wikipedia numbers are correct, Qantas operates 40 Airbus aircraft (A330 and A380) and 16 Boeing widebodies. The pilot pool would be a wash at best for either model I think.


both those planes are somewhat on their way out though. i do agree though that pilot retraining costs is probably not the deciding factor here.
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