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zeke
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 3:58 am

jagraham wrote:

The 779 is 181,400 kg QEW and 77 m .


Please provide a source.
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Stitch
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 4:06 am

jagraham wrote:
The 779 is 181,400 kg QEW and 77 m...The 778 is 7 m shorter than the 779. At 2277 kg / m, the 778 will be 15939 kg less, or 165461 kg. Approximately.


Boeing themselves gave an OEW of 188,000kg for the 777-9 at the post-2014 design gate with 414 seats in two classes. Leeham figures they've knocked that down to around 185,000kg by now. They project the 777-8 at 168,000kg at 354 seats and the A350-1000 at 153,000kg at 369 seats.

The QF birds will be four-class instead of two, but a First Class suite can weigh as much as two rows of Economy seats, so even factoring in the lower total seat count, OEWs likely won't be significantly lower than the two-class values.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 4:14 am

Stitch wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
Off topic but where did SYD-DFW stop before it became direct?


When it was operated by the 747-400ER, it was SYD-DFW and DFW-BNE-SYD. Once the A380-800 took over, DFW-SYD went non-stop.

Interesting. Thanks. Shame Brisbane sees so few 747s nowadays
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 4:37 am

speedbird52 wrote:
Interesting. Thanks. Shame Brisbane sees so few 747s nowadays


I believe it’s now zero as far as regular operations go.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:52 am

Airbus sales chief says both A350 variants viable for Project Sunrise

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ta-458641/
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Ruscoe
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:13 am

lightsaber wrote:
Pcoder wrote:
News story on final proposals due by August:

https://www.news.com.au/finance/busines ... f663a04741


"If the business case works, we will put in an order."

Lightsaber


When I saw this the first thing that went through my mind was Qantas have already settled on which type, but they need a lever to get the best deal, and play argie bargie with the successful manufacturer.

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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:22 am

qf789 wrote:
Airbus sales chief says both A350 variants viable for Project Sunrise

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ta-458641/

think there is a major problem when the manufacturer says that one aircraft which has already been ruled out is viable. The Customer is always right. Airbus needs better PR people.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:31 am

JQ321 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Airbus sales chief says both A350 variants viable for Project Sunrise

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ta-458641/

think there is a major problem when the manufacturer says that one aircraft which has already been ruled out is viable. The Customer is always right. Airbus needs better PR people.


I agree I thought this was weird too.

So the project Sunrise aircraft (as expected here) won't have bunk beds or a gym. It will however have an exercise area and hydration station.

https://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-rules-o ... nrise-jets

I think Airbus was the one who had put more effort into making the bunk beds below the deck viable. The fact that they are now out, coupled with the statement above from Airbus, makes me think that Boeing is now the favourite.
Last edited by aryonoco on Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
aryonoco
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:34 am

Also AJ once again confirming that the plane will have four classes. Particularly, he says: "There still will be a large economy".

https://in.reuters.com/article/airlines ... NKCN1T407Q
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:43 am

The flightglobal article included a few more details that I thought were interesting:

Neither plane is capable of flying with a "full load", but they can probably still make the business case work.

Qantas is going to introduce a new F suite with the project Sunrise aircraft, and also tweak its seats for other classes.

Lots of details other than the choice of aircraft still to be worked out, including negotiations with pilot unions and discussion with regulators around fatigue management etc.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:44 am

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/qantas-pressing-manufacturers-for-final-offers-on-su-458637/

"Design work is also underway on a new first class suite for the Sunrise aircraft, and further tweaks to its business, premium economy and economy seats." - looks like the four classes are staying.

It also mentions the "fourth zone" with stretching areas and hydration stations. I'm very curious as to how they're going to configure this aircraft. I'd be very interested to see a LOPA at this point, especially with this "fourth zone" stuff. Is it a station for each cabin? One large area at the back? Extremely interesting stuff. Since they're also not going with the underfloor bunks, it still could be anyone's order.

That being said, FlightGlobal had two articles - the one above, and the other one quoted further up from Airbus. Nothing from Boeing, so is that a sign that Airbus are the front runner?

Expected delivery now late 2022 for a 2023 start.
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:27 am

JQ321 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Airbus sales chief says both A350 variants viable for Project Sunrise https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ta-458641/

think there is a major problem when the manufacturer says that one aircraft which has already been ruled out is viable. The Customer is always right. Airbus needs better PR people.

I think you’re getting too excited mate. I would expect both OEMs will be asked to include prices for other variants in their bids – 779s in Boeing’s case and 359s for Airbus. If Airbus wins you’d quite possibly see 359s in the mix for ULH routes that can’t sustain first class eg those from Brisbane. Scherer will be well aware of that.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:08 am

BBJ777X wrote:
jagraham wrote:
BBJ777X wrote:
Where can I find the updated range figure? Boeing website still shows the 8,690 nmi figure...


For now, the increased range is in the Aircurrent reporting.


If 9500 nmi is the range required for LHR <-> SYD, I don't see 35K could ever possibly meet this requirement. What kind of MTOW it needs? Seems to be more than 330 t, which I doubt it is technically possible. 778 is the only player in the game now.

Airbus does not agree with your assessment:

See ​Airbus confirms both A350 variants viable for Qantas Sunrise bid:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ta-458641/
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:41 am

flee wrote:
Airbus does not agree with your assessment

And Joyce says both OEMs have aircraft that meet their technical requirements. You going to tell us you know better than the customer?
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:24 am

aryonoco wrote:
So the project Sunrise aircraft (as expected here) won't have bunk beds or a gym. It will however have an exercise area and hydration stations

Airlineratings https://tinyurl.com/yynsn5fa is reporting it was because of weight. Leaves an interesting question about what form their main deck exercise station might take.

In the same article Joyce is quoted on potential new routes and fleet numbers:

On the issue of potential routes beyond London and New York, Joyce said there was a potential service from the East Coast to Paris or Frankfurt.

Other markets included Chicago non-stop, possibly another point on the US East Coast, Brazilian destinations such as Sao Paolo and Rio and Africa.

“So we think there is a large number of markets that work,’’ he said, adding the airline would stage a fleet order with minimum aircraft number to do the big markets it was certain would work.

For those who think QF can’t order enough aircraft to make it worthwhile for OEMs to develop a new variant, Joyce is making it explicit he’s looking at Paris, Frankfurt, Rio/Sao Paulo, Johannesburg and I guess Washington or Miami – from some combination of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. In addition to LHR, JFK and ORD. If you add in the non-ULH destinations in Asia you can easily arrive at enough city pairs to sustain a fleet of 20+.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:51 am

Alan Joyce poked his head out and saw his shadow, which means 3 more months of a.net tea-leaf reading. ;)
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:25 am

tealnz wrote:
For those who think QF can’t order enough aircraft to make it worthwhile for OEMs to develop a new variant, Joyce is making it explicit he’s looking at Paris, Frankfurt, Rio/Sao Paulo, Johannesburg and I guess Washington or Miami – from some combination of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. In addition to LHR, JFK and ORD. If you add in the non-ULH destinations in Asia you can easily arrive at enough city pairs to sustain a fleet of 20+.

The initial order determines the market case. Possible future orders won't drive the business case.

This is an order for 10 aircraft with options, so this order will be priced and engineered for ten aircraft. When the order size increases, the OEMs respond.

Major PIPs require a sub-fleet of 50 or more new sales to pay for them. This is a showcase order, but that allows only so much engineering to be spent.

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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:42 am

Bricktop wrote:
Alan Joyce poked his head out and saw his shadow, which means 3 more months of a.net tea-leaf reading. ;)

This is the quote of the day in my book. Well done Sir! :D
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:49 am

lightsaber wrote:
tealnz wrote:
For those who think QF can’t order enough aircraft to make it worthwhile for OEMs to develop a new variant, Joyce is making it explicit he’s looking at Paris, Frankfurt, Rio/Sao Paulo, Johannesburg and I guess Washington or Miami – from some combination of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. In addition to LHR, JFK and ORD. If you add in the non-ULH destinations in Asia you can easily arrive at enough city pairs to sustain a fleet of 20+.

The initial order determines the market case. Possible future orders won't drive the business case.

This is an order for 10 aircraft with options, so this order will be priced and engineered for ten aircraft. When the order size increases, the OEMs respond.

Major PIPs require a sub-fleet of 50 or more new sales to pay for them. This is a showcase order, but that allows only so much engineering to be spent.

Lightsaber


I guess then the question is whether we’re talking about variants of the A35K and the 778 specifically for QF or whether (like the development of the 280t A359 or a 260t 789/78J) we are talking about MEW and MTOW numbers that will become a new standard variant. QF won’t want to pay a premium for a unique variant. Nor will they want additional weight built into the airframe just to meet their range requirements. At a guess this was one of the drivers for accepting airframes that will carry fewer than 300 pax on the London sectors.

Out of interest where does the “order for 10” come from? Have QF announced this? Or is it a guess?
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 12:47 pm

How do you get 300 seats in the 778 in 4 classes? What layout will you see that will make this possible, for those flights other than LHR that the aircraft will be used on as well.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 12:52 pm

tealnz wrote:
Airlineratings https://tinyurl.com/yynsn5fa is reporting it was because of weight. Leaves an interesting question about what form their main deck exercise station might take.


I am betting on it being an empty space in the aircraft, with a carpeted floor, along with screens in a bulkhead for people to follow along doing exercises. That's it. Virtually weight free, which makes sense considering what they're trying to do.

tealnz wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
This is an order for 10 aircraft with options, so this order will be priced and engineered for ten aircraft. When the order size increases, the OEMs respond.


Out of interest where does the “order for 10” come from? Have QF announced this? Or is it a guess?


It's just a guess, however Qantas have historically had a penchant for ordering 12 plus options of new types. That being said, no-one really knows how many they'll order. No doubt it will be some kind of 787-esque order where they have flexibility to firm them as they go, to de-risk the whole thing if it doesn't work out.

enzo011 wrote:
How do you get 300 seats in the 778 in 4 classes? What layout will you see that will make this possible, for those flights other than LHR that the aircraft will be used on as well.


Qantas have already said they won't be having 300 seats any longer. Both manufacturers can't make the range with that amount of seating, according to Qantas. Therefore, it won't be that many seats.
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:19 pm

So if qf are confirming that they want a 4 class with a large y class, doesn't that push it towards the larger plane, i.e. 778?
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:25 pm

enzo011 wrote:
How do you get 300 seats in the 778 in 4 classes? What layout will you see that will make this possible, for those flights other than LHR that the aircraft will be used on as well.

The same in a A35K.......
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:38 pm

enzo011 wrote:
How do you get 300 seats in the 778 in 4 classes? What layout will you see that will make this possible, for those flights other than LHR that the aircraft will be used on as well.


Maybe something similar to this F12C48W32Y207 :scratchchin: Note that i'm simply guessing :white:
Last edited by AECM on Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:39 pm

lightsaber wrote:
The initial order determines the market case. Possible future orders won't drive the business case.
This is an order for 10 aircraft with options, so this order will be priced and engineered for ten aircraft. When the order size increases, the OEMs respond.
Major PIPs require a sub-fleet of 50 or more new sales to pay for them. This is a showcase order, but that allows only so much engineering to be spent.
Lightsaber

Again you are forgetting/discounting (to some extent) QF's capex problem. The initial order will be between 6 and 12 depending on the deal they can cut with the OEM. While I don't doubt what you say above in normal circumstances the OEM that gets the order will have cut some sort of deal to help with this problem. What it will be I don't know [obviously] BUT given that AJ has said that either airframe will do the job IMHO it will come down to the best deal with price, order size, finance and order structure [ie firm orders, options [at the same price] & purchase rights [at an adjusted price that an OEM is willing to cut.To me that mildly suggests that Airbus has a slight edge as they historically seem more willing to cut that sort of deal, then again the QF deal with Boeing over the B787 is not too shabby either.

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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:42 pm

pabloeing wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
How do you get 300 seats in the 778 in 4 classes? What layout will you see that will make this possible, for those flights other than LHR that the aircraft will be used on as well.

The same in a A35K.......


Except the a35k has a larger floor size, 330m2 compared to 320m2 and about 4m longer
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:59 pm

Pcoder wrote:
pabloeing wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
How do you get 300 seats in the 778 in 4 classes? What layout will you see that will make this possible, for those flights other than LHR that the aircraft will be used on as well.

The same in a A35K.......


Except the a35k has a larger floor size, 330m2 compared to 320m2 and about 4m longer


The 778 will 10AB vs 9AB on the 35K. I do expect the 35K to have a marginally higher seat cap, perhaps 1 more row of Y.

I however doubt either will be able to fit 300 pax in a 4 class config. BA with their dense F & J configs can only get 299 on a 4 class 77W. I suppose it will depend heavily on the premium config.
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 2:46 pm

tealnz wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
tealnz wrote:
For those who think QF can’t order enough aircraft to make it worthwhile for OEMs to develop a new variant, Joyce is making it explicit he’s looking at Paris, Frankfurt, Rio/Sao Paulo, Johannesburg and I guess Washington or Miami – from some combination of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. In addition to LHR, JFK and ORD. If you add in the non-ULH destinations in Asia you can easily arrive at enough city pairs to sustain a fleet of 20+.

The initial order determines the market case. Possible future orders won't drive the business case.

This is an order for 10 aircraft with options, so this order will be priced and engineered for ten aircraft. When the order size increases, the OEMs respond.

Major PIPs require a sub-fleet of 50 or more new sales to pay for them. This is a showcase order, but that allows only so much engineering to be spent.

Lightsaber


I guess then the question is whether we’re talking about variants of the A35K and the 778 specifically for QF or whether (like the development of the 280t A359 or a 260t 789/78J) we are talking about MEW and MTOW numbers that will become a new standard variant. QF won’t want to pay a premium for a unique variant. Nor will they want additional weight built into the airframe just to meet their range requirements. At a guess this was one of the drivers for accepting airframes that will carry fewer than 300 pax on the London sectors.

Out of interest where does the “order for 10” come from? Have QF announced this? Or is it a guess?


Most of the engineering for Sunrise can be applied to non-ULR versions, both for growth (-10 / -2000) and/or freighter versions, or for airlines that ask for more payload at a given long range. Al-Bakar has stated that he switched to the higher (319 or 320t) MTOW Version of the -1000 for that reason. He stated, that Airbus has more planned. So it is fair to assume that both A and B are taking a good look at what they can do to their machines that is not wasted, the exception might be plumbing for an auxiliary fuel tank. AB would obviously try to squeeze the 777-8 into the smallest possible niche, so they might have somewhat of a strategic reason as well.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 4:05 pm

AECM wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
How do you get 300 seats in the 778 in 4 classes? What layout will you see that will make this possible, for those flights other than LHR that the aircraft will be used on as well.


Maybe something similar to this F12C48W32Y207 :scratchchin: Note that i'm simply guessing :white:


Or something like F12C48W42Y198
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 4:27 pm

AECM wrote:
AECM wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
How do you get 300 seats in the 778 in 4 classes? What layout will you see that will make this possible, for those flights other than LHR that the aircraft will be used on as well.


Maybe something similar to this F12C48W32Y207 :scratchchin: Note that i'm simply guessing :white:


Or something like F12C48W42Y198


Since it's less than 300 seats they will have, it will likely be similar to the Boeing 787. In Qantas configuration, it has 42 business, 28 premium economy and 166 economy. That's 236.

Add in 9 First at three abreast, an extra row of PE bringing it to 35 (adding 7), and a row of economy (adding 10) brings the total to 262. There may be an extra row of business class too, which only adds four, which brings it to 268. That's about where I see it, based on very little fact at all :)
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:48 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
AECM wrote:
AECM wrote:

Maybe something similar to this F12C48W32Y207 :scratchchin: Note that i'm simply guessing :white:


Or something like F12C48W42Y198


Since it's less than 300 seats they will have, it will likely be similar to the Boeing 787. In Qantas configuration, it has 42 business, 28 premium economy and 166 economy. That's 236.

Add in 9 First at three abreast, an extra row of PE bringing it to 35 (adding 7), and a row of economy (adding 10) brings the total to 262. There may be an extra row of business class too, which only adds four, which brings it to 268. That's about where I see it, based on very little fact at all :)



The 778 is about 7m longer than the 789. If you are able to use all of the extra length for seats and you add 3 rows of F at 80 inch pitch, that is 6m used. It would depend on the product though.

As for the less than 300 seats. I am not sure exactly what QF is looking for. First it was 300 seats in 4 classes, then it seemed to change to still 300 seats because the aircraft will be used on other flights when not used on the LHR route. But for both aircraft if you squeeze in 300 seats in 4 classes, then that will be tight for most passengers and I don't know how tempting that will be for most passengers.

We will have to wait and see I guess what the winning product brings as QF is either sending out conflicting messages or the leaks are picking up the conflicting information.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:40 pm

How much does the overall fleet mix come into this?

QF could have a relatively simple 778/779/789/78J long haul fleet, weather they would be able to have a single type rating across the 777/787 I’m not sure. They have talked up the new Boeing MOM aswell as a partial A330/737 replacement aswell.

I don’t however see them going all Boeing, and while initially I felt personally they would go 778 Im now leaning towards the A35K, no particular reason, maybe some of the A380 deposits though they will be partly used in the A380 refits done by Airbus. Would they then order A359s aswell? They have showed interest in the 78J aswell or would they add more 789s and reconfigure some for Asian flying where W isn’t sold or required?

I could see a long term fleet something like,

A35K x 20
78J x 10
789 x 14
MOM 35
7M8 50
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:11 pm

tealnz wrote:
Out of interest where does the “order for 10” come from? Have QF announced this? Or is it a guess?


It's a guess. The only 3 routes that AJ has talked of as definites are SYD-LHR SYD JFK and MEL-LHR. For those you'll need 6 frames + 1 for spare. So I would not at all be surprised if the initial order is for 7. They can add a dozen or more options to cover the eventuality that it goes very well and they end up launching to destinations such as CDG and FRA.

As for the number of seats, my money is on around 260.

Either aircraft can do the route. It will come down to a lot other factors such as financing, the guarantees the manufacturer is willing to give, etc.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:09 pm

aryonoco wrote:
tealnz wrote:
Out of interest where does the “order for 10” come from? Have QF announced this? Or is it a guess?


It's a guess. The only 3 routes that AJ has talked of as definites are SYD-LHR SYD JFK and MEL-LHR. For those you'll need 6 frames + 1 for spare. So I would not at all be surprised if the initial order is for 7. They can add a dozen or more options to cover the eventuality that it goes very well and they end up launching to destinations such as CDG and FRA.

As for the number of seats, my money is on around 260.

Either aircraft can do the route. It will come down to a lot other factors such as financing, the guarantees the manufacturer is willing to give, etc.

You need 5 - 6 frames for just SYD/MEL - LHR, were always a 3 aircraft rotation each route until a few years ago when it was cut to 5 for both routes combined. Up thread Zeke argues that the non stoppers will requires 6 frames due the extreme time difference & curfews on both ends. He could well be right. This suggests that the minimum order is 9 - 10, 6 for LHR, 2 or 3 for JFK and 1 spare, plus options & purchase rights.

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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:15 am

jagraham wrote:
The 779 is 181,400 kg QEW and 77 m

The 77W is 167829 kg OEW and 74 m long, while the 77L is 145150 kg OEW and 64 m long. 22769 kg for 10 m, or 2277 kg / m

The 778 is 7 m shorter than the 779. At 2277 kg / m, the 778 will be 15939 kg less, or 165461 kg. Approximately.

But in any case, about 10000 kg less than what Leeham came up with.


Leeham has had pessimistic estimates of Boeing empty weights before. IIRC they were off, although not nearly by 10 t, on all three of the 787 variants (at least once the 787-8 reached spec sometime after LN 100). 175 t does seem rather high for the 778.

IMO this contest will be decided at least partly by the cross-network implications of choosing either aircraft. There will be a lot of financial motivation to order other family members, and a strategy using 777-9s looks rather different than one using non-ULR A350-1000s. Also IMO, that's Boeing's best hope--it appears from Joyce's comments that Airbus has met the payload range hurdle with the A350-1000ULR, and if that's true then it seems like the better product for ULH specifically.
 
Kikko19
Posts: 523
Joined: Sat Apr 22, 2017 4:45 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:15 am

seabosdca wrote:
jagraham wrote:
The 779 is 181,400 kg QEW and 77 m

The 77W is 167829 kg OEW and 74 m long, while the 77L is 145150 kg OEW and 64 m long. 22769 kg for 10 m, or 2277 kg / m

The 778 is 7 m shorter than the 779. At 2277 kg / m, the 778 will be 15939 kg less, or 165461 kg. Approximately.

But in any case, about 10000 kg less than what Leeham came up with.


Leeham has had pessimistic estimates of Boeing empty weights before. IIRC they were off, although not nearly by 10 t, on all three of the 787 variants (at least once the 787-8 reached spec sometime after LN 100). 175 t does seem rather high for the 778.

IMO this contest will be decided at least partly by the cross-network implications of choosing either aircraft. There will be a lot of financial motivation to order other family members, and a strategy using 777-9s looks rather different than one using non-ULR A350-1000s. Also IMO, that's Boeing's best hope--it appears from Joyce's comments that Airbus has met the payload range hurdle with the A350-1000ULR, and if that's true then it seems like the better product for ULH specifically.

The calculation should consider the unchanged weight for the wings, so you can't divide the total weight per the length. You should make total weight - wings) / length. Ok the 779 wing might be heavier... But not by much. The 778 won't be 22k kgs lighter IMHO.
 
jagraham
Posts: 862
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:14 pm

Kikko19 wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
jagraham wrote:
The 779 is 181,400 kg QEW and 77 m

The 77W is 167829 kg OEW and 74 m long, while the 77L is 145150 kg OEW and 64 m long. 22769 kg for 10 m, or 2277 kg / m

The 778 is 7 m shorter than the 779. At 2277 kg / m, the 778 will be 15939 kg less, or 165461 kg. Approximately.

But in any case, about 10000 kg less than what Leeham came up with.


Leeham has had pessimistic estimates of Boeing empty weights before. IIRC they were off, although not nearly by 10 t, on all three of the 787 variants (at least once the 787-8 reached spec sometime after LN 100). 175 t does seem rather high for the 778.

IMO this contest will be decided at least partly by the cross-network implications of choosing either aircraft. There will be a lot of financial motivation to order other family members, and a strategy using 777-9s looks rather different than one using non-ULR A350-1000s. Also IMO, that's Boeing's best hope--it appears from Joyce's comments that Airbus has met the payload range hurdle with the A350-1000ULR, and if that's true then it seems like the better product for ULH specifically.

The calculation should consider the unchanged weight for the wings, so you can't divide the total weight per the length. You should make total weight - wings) / length. Ok the 779 wing might be heavier... But not by much. The 778 won't be 22k kgs lighter IMHO.


Using the 77W and 77L for a baseline takes the unchanged wings into consideration. With the 77W and 77L, the only change is the fuselage length (and associated seating, bathrooms, galleys). Their wings, engines, and landing gear are identical. And the fuselage is quite close to the 77X. So taking a difference between the 77W and 77L, and getting a scale in kg / m, should come quite close to what the difference is between the 779 (known OEW), and 778 (same family, known length, unknown OEW).
 
jagraham
Posts: 862
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:20 pm

seabosdca wrote:
jagraham wrote:
The 779 is 181,400 kg QEW and 77 m

The 77W is 167829 kg OEW and 74 m long, while the 77L is 145150 kg OEW and 64 m long. 22769 kg for 10 m, or 2277 kg / m

The 778 is 7 m shorter than the 779. At 2277 kg / m, the 778 will be 15939 kg less, or 165461 kg. Approximately.

But in any case, about 10000 kg less than what Leeham came up with.


Leeham has had pessimistic estimates of Boeing empty weights before. IIRC they were off, although not nearly by 10 t, on all three of the 787 variants (at least once the 787-8 reached spec sometime after LN 100). 175 t does seem rather high for the 778.

IMO this contest will be decided at least partly by the cross-network implications of choosing either aircraft. There will be a lot of financial motivation to order other family members, and a strategy using 777-9s looks rather different than one using non-ULR A350-1000s. Also IMO, that's Boeing's best hope--it appears from Joyce's comments that Airbus has met the payload range hurdle with the A350-1000ULR, and if that's true then it seems like the better product for ULH specifically.


I agree with the cross networking - that has to be why Qantas got soft on the pax spec. I don't think Boeing's approach is ideal, especially since there appears to be no change in fuselage material (they could have gone to composite skins at least), but there is no question that if GE made spec on the engine, the 778 will have plenty of payload for that kind of trip. The real question is how much better is a 778 than a 77W, and how much worse is an A350-1000 than an A350-900? Because on the Airbus side, if I am to believe the published specs, the A359 and A35J have virtually identical trip fuel consumption. Which boggles my mind, but absent evidence to the contrary, I have been keeping silent.
 
BBJ777X
Posts: 29
Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2019 11:16 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:49 pm

flee wrote:
BBJ777X wrote:
jagraham wrote:

For now, the increased range is in the Aircurrent reporting.


If 9500 nmi is the range required for LHR <-> SYD, I don't see 35K could ever possibly meet this requirement. What kind of MTOW it needs? Seems to be more than 330 t, which I doubt it is technically possible. 778 is the only player in the game now.

Airbus does not agree with your assessment:

See ​Airbus confirms both A350 variants viable for Qantas Sunrise bid:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ta-458641/


I think QF softened the 300 pax requirement simply to include Airbus in the game in order to negotiate a better pricing for Boeing. They _do_ want to have 300 passenger on LHR-SYD, and only 777-8 can offer that. Anyone who seriously thinks an 350-1000 order is possible is dreaming.
 
ITSTours
Posts: 373
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:51 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:12 pm

BBJ777X wrote:
flee wrote:
BBJ777X wrote:

If 9500 nmi is the range required for LHR <-> SYD, I don't see 35K could ever possibly meet this requirement. What kind of MTOW it needs? Seems to be more than 330 t, which I doubt it is technically possible. 778 is the only player in the game now.

Airbus does not agree with your assessment:

See ​Airbus confirms both A350 variants viable for Qantas Sunrise bid:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ta-458641/


I think QF softened the 300 pax requirement simply to include Airbus in the game in order to negotiate a better pricing for Boeing. They _do_ want to have 300 passenger on LHR-SYD, and only 777-8 can offer that. Anyone who seriously thinks an 350-1000 order is possible is dreaming.


So you think Airbus COO and Qantas CEO are both dreaming?
What do you know more about those aircraft than those high executives do?
And why do you keep making new accounts?
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26311
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:22 pm

BBJ777X wrote:
I think QF softened the 300 pax requirement simply to include Airbus in the game in order to negotiate a better pricing for Boeing. They _do_ want to have 300 passenger on LHR-SYD, and only 777-8 can offer that. Anyone who seriously thinks an 350-1000 order is possible is dreaming.


Boeing needs every order it can get for the 777-8 to justify the RoI in offering it.

Qantas doesn't need an "Airbus Boogeyman" to get a better price.
 
jagraham
Posts: 862
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:58 pm

BBJ777X wrote:
flee wrote:
BBJ777X wrote:

If 9500 nmi is the range required for LHR <-> SYD, I don't see 35K could ever possibly meet this requirement. What kind of MTOW it needs? Seems to be more than 330 t, which I doubt it is technically possible. 778 is the only player in the game now.

Airbus does not agree with your assessment:

See ​Airbus confirms both A350 variants viable for Qantas Sunrise bid:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ta-458641/


I think QF softened the 300 pax requirement simply to include Airbus in the game in order to negotiate a better pricing for Boeing. They _do_ want to have 300 passenger on LHR-SYD, and only 777-8 can offer that. Anyone who seriously thinks an 350-1000 order is possible is dreaming.


Boeing's website says the 778 will be 4% better than the A35J. That's significant, but not earth shattering (the fact that the 778 has more range and better economy is more significant). At 4% difference (which I am sure Airbus and a.net Airbus fanboys dispute) the details become significant. In particular, there may be other flight profiles where the difference between the 778 and the A35J are negligible (1% or less), and other factors such as acquisition cost, maintenance, etc., dominate. Under such circumstances QF may very well go A35J because the total cost of ownership is better when the shorter flights are included.

https://www.boeing.com/commercial/777x/ ... ating-cost

In any case, this will be interesting.
 
User avatar
seabosdca
Posts: 6466
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:32 pm

jagraham wrote:
Boeing's website says the 778 will be 4% better than the A35J.


It's always worth unpacking this sort of claim from one OEM. First, this is a claim on operating cost per seat. Second, here's what Boeing says in small print:

Boeing wrote:
Standard Rules
Two-class seating
6000 nm trip
Boeing assessment of Airbus performance


These rules are chosen to generate a high seat count, and specifically to maximize economy seating to leverage the 777's 10Y vs. 9Y advantage to the maximum extent possible.

The trip length is undoubtedly chosen to be the most favorable to Boeing.

"Boeing assessment of Airbus performance" points to a couple of things. First, this is going to be based on the oldest data Boeing can get away with using, kind of like how Airbus was still comparing A320s to the original performance of early-build 737-800s without winglets as recently as a few years ago. Second, it will likely assume suboptimal choices for parameters like cruise altitude and speed. (Perhaps even, for "fairness," the same choices that are optimal for the Boeing product!)

In short, don't place bets based on this sort of claim. Boeing certainly is not; they know the deal for internal purposes. It's really hard to make a heavier plane outperform a lighter one with the same payload, and I doubt the 778 would outperform here unless it can carry more.
 
BBJ777X
Posts: 29
Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2019 11:16 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:32 pm

jagraham wrote:
BBJ777X wrote:
flee wrote:
Airbus does not agree with your assessment:

See ​Airbus confirms both A350 variants viable for Qantas Sunrise bid:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ta-458641/


I think QF softened the 300 pax requirement simply to include Airbus in the game in order to negotiate a better pricing for Boeing. They _do_ want to have 300 passenger on LHR-SYD, and only 777-8 can offer that. Anyone who seriously thinks an 350-1000 order is possible is dreaming.


Boeing's website says the 778 will be 4% better than the A35J. That's significant, but not earth shattering (the fact that the 778 has more range and better economy is more significant). At 4% difference (which I am sure Airbus and a.net Airbus fanboys dispute) the details become significant. In particular, there may be other flight profiles where the difference between the 778 and the A35J are negligible (1% or less), and other factors such as acquisition cost, maintenance, etc., dominate. Under such circumstances QF may very well go A35J because the total cost of ownership is better when the shorter flights are included.

https://www.boeing.com/commercial/777x/ ... ating-cost

In any case, this will be interesting.


This is interesting. So 777-8 is both more efficient and more capable than A35J. I couldn't think of any reason why QF would buy A35J other than Airbus is willing to give a _huge_ discount,
 
Pcoder
Posts: 99
Joined: Mon Nov 23, 2015 10:44 am

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:40 pm

jagraham wrote:
BBJ777X wrote:
flee wrote:
Airbus does not agree with your assessment:

See ​Airbus confirms both A350 variants viable for Qantas Sunrise bid:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ta-458641/


I think QF softened the 300 pax requirement simply to include Airbus in the game in order to negotiate a better pricing for Boeing. They _do_ want to have 300 passenger on LHR-SYD, and only 777-8 can offer that. Anyone who seriously thinks an 350-1000 order is possible is dreaming.


Boeing's website says the 778 will be 4% better than the A35J. That's significant, but not earth shattering (the fact that the 778 has more range and better economy is more significant). At 4% difference (which I am sure Airbus and a.net Airbus fanboys dispute) the details become significant. In particular, there may be other flight profiles where the difference between the 778 and the A35J are negligible (1% or less), and other factors such as acquisition cost, maintenance, etc., dominate. Under such circumstances QF may very well go A35J because the total cost of ownership is better when the shorter flights are included.

https://www.boeing.com/commercial/777x/ ... ating-cost

In any case, this will be interesting.


The case that boeing uses is a 2-class set-up (which Qantas is not doing), which suggests boeing is packing them all in like sardines to get the better results. There also won't be too many airlines operating the 777-x with only 2 classes (maybe only the ME3), so this suggests that the marketing department has got into this to make it more palatable.

There's must also be a reason for so few airlines ordering the 777-8. Only the ME3 have ordered it, with the EY order looking shakky. As noted by AJ, viability is important, so if Qantas has ordered too much and needs to sell of a few aircraft, which one would be easier to onsell without losing too much money.
Last edited by Pcoder on Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
BBJ777X
Posts: 29
Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2019 11:16 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:44 pm

Pcoder wrote:
jagraham wrote:
BBJ777X wrote:

I think QF softened the 300 pax requirement simply to include Airbus in the game in order to negotiate a better pricing for Boeing. They _do_ want to have 300 passenger on LHR-SYD, and only 777-8 can offer that. Anyone who seriously thinks an 350-1000 order is possible is dreaming.


Boeing's website says the 778 will be 4% better than the A35J. That's significant, but not earth shattering (the fact that the 778 has more range and better economy is more significant). At 4% difference (which I am sure Airbus and a.net Airbus fanboys dispute) the details become significant. In particular, there may be other flight profiles where the difference between the 778 and the A35J are negligible (1% or less), and other factors such as acquisition cost, maintenance, etc., dominate. Under such circumstances QF may very well go A35J because the total cost of ownership is better when the shorter flights are included.

https://www.boeing.com/commercial/777x/ ... ating-cost

In any case, this will be interesting.


The case that boeing uses is a 2-class set-up (which Qantas is not doing), which suggests boeing is packing them all in like sardines to get the better results.

There's must also be a reason for so few airlines ordering the 777-8. Only the ME3 have ordered it, with the EY order looking shakky. As noted by AJ, viability is important, so if Qantas has ordered too much and needs to sell of a few aircraft, which one would be easier to onsell without losing too much money.


The A350-1000 is not selling either...
 
ITSTours
Posts: 373
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:51 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:46 pm

jagraham wrote:
Boeing's website says the 778 will be 4% better than the A35J. That's significant, but not earth shattering (the fact that the 778 has more range and better economy is more significant). At 4% difference (which I am sure Airbus and a.net Airbus fanboys dispute) the details become significant. In particular, there may be other flight profiles where the difference between the 778 and the A35J are negligible (1% or less), and other factors such as acquisition cost, maintenance, etc., dominate. Under such circumstances QF may very well go A35J because the total cost of ownership is better when the shorter flights are included.

https://www.boeing.com/commercial/777x/ ... ating-cost

In any case, this will be interesting.


If Boeing's marketing team claims 4% difference then I'd assume it would be lower in reality.
(I would, of course, assume so if Airbus marketing team claims they're better than Boeing.)
 
Pcoder
Posts: 99
Joined: Mon Nov 23, 2015 10:44 am

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:12 am

jagraham wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
jagraham wrote:
Boeing's website says the 778 will be 4% better than the A35J.


It's always worth unpacking this sort of claim from one OEM. First, this is a claim on operating cost per seat. Second, here's what Boeing says in small print:

Boeing wrote:
Standard Rules
Two-class seating
6000 nm trip
Boeing assessment of Airbus performance


These rules are chosen to generate a high seat count, and specifically to maximize economy seating to leverage the 777's 10Y vs. 9Y advantage to the maximum extent possible.

The trip length is undoubtedly chosen to be the most favorable to Boeing.

"Boeing assessment of Airbus performance" points to a couple of things. First, this is going to be based on the oldest data Boeing can get away with using, kind of like how Airbus was still comparing A320s to the original performance of early-build 737-800s without winglets as recently as a few years ago. Second, it will likely assume suboptimal choices for parameters like cruise altitude and speed. (Perhaps even, for "fairness," the same choices that are optimal for the Boeing product!)

Which is why that post has all those qualifiers

In short, don't place bets based on this sort of claim. Boeing certainly is not; they know the deal for internal purposes. It's really hard to make a heavier plane outperform a lighter one with the same payload, and I doubt the 778 would outperform here unless it can carry more.


Yeah it's a bit suspect as I doubt too many operators of the 777-x will be operating with 2 classes or less (probably less than 30%)
 
undertheradar
Posts: 401
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 1:02 am

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:37 am

I am enjoying this thread, reading all the discussions/thoughts about the seat count/mix versus the length of the 'front running' aircraft. Just throw something else into the mix. It is confirmed that there will be a MAIN DECK SEPARATE ZONE 'wellness area' that ALL passengers can use, regardless of seating class. qantas has concluded that below deck/cargo area for passenger use is not feasible for their needs. This main deck zone will enable passengers to do simple exercises, stretch, yoga type things, with instructional videos on a communal screen. Also this area will include a 'quench drink station' with healthy beverages/juices on offer. No details about the size of this area, but it will take up space on the main deck and no 'regular' passenger seats will be placed there :)
 
Gemuser
Posts: 4977
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:44 am

BBJ777X wrote:
This is interesting. So 777-8 is both more efficient and more capable than A35J. I couldn't think of any reason why QF would buy A35J other than Airbus is willing to give a _huge_ discount,

QF CEO AJ has said that both aircraft meet the requirements! Given that statement the "DEAL" offered becomes more important not just price. As I have said before QF have a capital expenditure [capex] problem, do NOT under estimate the effect that will have on the decision. By the "DEAL" I include:

1) Price [of course]

2) Financing to Australian conditions.
Australia has its own set of tax rules covering deperication but also the treatment of different finance methods. There is also the ASX listing rules, there may well be other points under this heading.

3) Structure of the order, do not expect one order for total requirements, won't happen!
The mix of firm orders, options and purchase rights and the price/deposit requirements and conversion conditions attached will be of great importance. Stuffing this up could well lead to the other OEM getting the order.

4) Delivery timeing.
IMHO, I supect QF will want the timeing to be something like this: 4 airframe 2022 [or the first 12 months of deliveries], which will let them start SYD-LHR, 3 more in the next 12 months to start MEL-LHR 3 more in the following 12 months to start JFK for a total firm order of 10. [No suprise if it turns out to be 12 firm]

These points are ALL important. Either OEM could lose the order on any one of these points. Which does make the constant bickering in thread over range/payload/trip cost fairly redundant as we CANNOT know, at this point. what the DEAL will be, neither do QF or the OEMs.

Gemuser

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