wingman
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 3:43 am

I’ll say this for Qantas, for 12 firm orders they certainly take the crown as the wind up merchants of the airline business. If the excitement levels were felt on a relative basis your typical EK order would result in massive global strokeout.
 
smartplane
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 3:45 am

seabosdca wrote:
jagraham wrote:
Boeing's website says the 778 will be 4% better than the A35J.


It's always worth unpacking this sort of claim from one OEM. First, this is a claim on operating cost per seat. Second, here's what Boeing says in small print:

Boeing wrote:
Standard Rules
Two-class seating
6000 nm trip
Boeing assessment of Airbus performance


These rules are chosen to generate a high seat count, and specifically to maximize economy seating to leverage the 777's 10Y vs. 9Y advantage to the maximum extent possible.

The trip length is undoubtedly chosen to be the most favorable to Boeing.

"Boeing assessment of Airbus performance" points to a couple of things. First, this is going to be based on the oldest data Boeing can get away with using, kind of like how Airbus was still comparing A320s to the original performance of early-build 737-800s without winglets as recently as a few years ago. Second, it will likely assume suboptimal choices for parameters like cruise altitude and speed. (Perhaps even, for "fairness," the same choices that are optimal for the Boeing product!)

In short, don't place bets based on this sort of claim. Boeing certainly is not; they know the deal for internal purposes. It's really hard to make a heavier plane outperform a lighter one with the same payload, and I doubt the 778 would outperform here unless it can carry more.

And are they willing and able to guarantee this from service entry, supported by penalty payments for any shortfall?
 
travelasia
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 6:02 am

Gemuser wrote:
[...]

2) Financing to Australian conditions.
Australia has its own set of tax rules covering deperication but also the treatment of different finance methods. There is also the ASX listing rules, there may well be other points under this heading.

3) Structure of the order, do not expect one order for total requirements, won't happen!
The mix of firm orders, options and purchase rights and the price/deposit requirements and conversion conditions attached will be of great importance. Stuffing this up could well lead to the other OEM getting the order.
[...]

Gemuser


2) That is an interesting (and new to me) one. One hard fact we have is that a ULR -1000 can be dumbed down with little penalty to normal one, reducing risk, while a 777-8 has a lot more limited market. Something Boeing could solve commercially, either by buyback guarantees or creative pricing for trading for other planes. Would be interesting to know how much (if any) the Australian tax rules influence that kind of deal.

3) As those of us that try to keep their bias under control will acknowledge, both primary contenders seem to be close to each other. So as in any commercial deal, every bidder that sees the competition is close will try to find ways to add value to the offer by adding sweeteners in other areas. While this could be coincidence, the timing of the 6t MTOW increase for the 787 and AB announcing, that they are ready to offer both -900 and -1000 to meet the PS requirements leads me to the speculation, that adding a a unique offer AB can not match, like trading some of the 787-9 from QF for the higher MTOW could be part of the deal. Hence AB - again, speculation - could offer the 900 ULR as a part of the offering that B can not match directly.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:00 am

jagraham wrote:
Boeing's website says the 778 will be 4% better than the A35J.


I guess it must be true then.

But what if Airbus's website says the A35J is more efficient than the 778? Who to believe then? :spin:

BBJ777X wrote:
So 777-8 is both more efficient and more capable than A35J.


Sure, if you only read Boeing's website and believe what's written there.

seabosdca wrote:
It's always worth unpacking this sort of claim from one OEM. First, this is a claim on operating cost per seat. Second, here's what Boeing says in small print:

Boeing wrote:
Standard Rules
Two-class seating
6000 nm trip
Boeing assessment of Airbus performance


These rules are chosen to generate a high seat count, and specifically to maximize economy seating to leverage the 777's 10Y vs. 9Y advantage to the maximum extent possible.

The trip length is undoubtedly chosen to be the most favorable to Boeing.


Damn that small print!
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sabby
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:00 am

How long does it take to install/uninstall a row of economy seats ? If it is possible within short time, I could see QF configuring the last 4-5 rows of Y to be quickly removed for sunrise routes and installing them when operating on shorter routes. This space could be used for the wellness area.
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:04 am

sabby wrote:
How long does it take to install/uninstall a row of economy seats ? If it is possible within short time, I could see QF configuring the last 4-5 rows of Y to be quickly removed for sunrise routes and installing them when operating on shorter routes. This space could be used for the wellness area.

That's a very interesting concept and whilst I cannot answer your question directly I do remember seeing on a program back in the 90's (Airport, narrated by John Nettles) where an aircraft was reconfigured relatively quickly to change between freight ops and pax ops.

Fred
Image
 
jagraham
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:29 am

scbriml wrote:
jagraham wrote:
Boeing's website says the 778 will be 4% better than the A35J.


I guess it must be true then.

But what if Airbus's website says the A35J is more efficient than the 778? Who to believe then? :spin:

BBJ777X wrote:
So 777-8 is both more efficient and more capable than A35J.


Sure, if you only read Boeing's website and believe what's written there.

seabosdca wrote:
It's always worth unpacking this sort of claim from one OEM. First, this is a claim on operating cost per seat. Second, here's what Boeing says in small print:

Boeing wrote:
Standard Rules
Two-class seating
6000 nm trip
Boeing assessment of Airbus performance


These rules are chosen to generate a high seat count, and specifically to maximize economy seating to leverage the 777's 10Y vs. 9Y advantage to the maximum extent possible.

The trip length is undoubtedly chosen to be the most favorable to Boeing.


Damn that small print!


I heavily qualified that post because I knew this was coming . .
One aspect of seat count with regards to the 77X family is that the 77X is designed for 10 across 18 in seats in Y.
Beyond that, seating density, and business class seat weights and floor space, is always a bone of contention. Airbus does it too; no major carrier has 316 seats on an A359; yet that is the number Airbus uses to figure out seat-mile fuel consumption.
And don't get me started on SpaceFlex bathrooms, whether the original 268t A359 can carry 300 pax and bags 8000 nm, or how any A359 can carry more payload further than a 77L . . .
In conclusion, they both do it (fudge specs)
 
StTim
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:47 am

It is for marketing and from an airline perspective irrelevant as they do much much more detailed analysis of real performance with their specs.
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:50 am

jagraham wrote:
Airbus does it too; no major carrier has 316 seats on an A359; yet that is the number Airbus uses to figure out seat-mile fuel consumption.


There is a little airline in Asia called Thai that has 321 seats in their A350-900
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keesje
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:26 am

How many aircraft is this requirement and how many other customers will jump on it? ~25 aircraft 3 operators over 15 years?

Technically there are possibilities. Airbus and Boeing however don't want to go deeply non recurring & Qantas doesn't want to pay the price..

A350-900 XLR, merging A350-1000 wings, MTOW to the A350-900. Possible? No doubt, but the risk / ROI would put everybody off.

Image
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jagraham
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:31 am

keesje wrote:
How many aircraft is this requirement and how many other customers will jump on it? ~25 aircraft 3 operators over 15 years?

Technically there are possibilities. Airbus and Boeing however don't want to go deeply non recurring & Qantas doesn't want to pay the price..

A350-900 XLR, merging A350-1000 wings, MTOW to the A350-900. Possible? No doubt, but the risk / ROI would put everybody off.

Image


From the QF standpoint, the A350-1000 fuselage was not enough of a weight or drag impediment to justify pushing for an A350-1000 shrink; and so we have a modified A350-1000 as the Airbus contender for Project Sunrise.
 
ewt340
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:59 am

keesje wrote:
How many aircraft is this requirement and how many other customers will jump on it? ~25 aircraft 3 operators over 15 years?

Technically there are possibilities. Airbus and Boeing however don't want to go deeply non recurring & Qantas doesn't want to pay the price..

A350-900 XLR, merging A350-1000 wings, MTOW to the A350-900. Possible? No doubt, but the risk / ROI would put everybody off.

Image


The main problem would also comes down to configurations as well.

Qantas have high premium seats on their B787-9. It took almost 50% of cabin space for premium cabin for B787-9.

A350-900 in 4 class configurations using Qantas latest products (not sure about first class, staggered business class seat with 46" pitch between shells, 38" pitch for premium economy and 32" pitch for economy class) would resulted in around 230 seats on the cabin. 4F 44C 32P and 150Y.
A350-1000 would carry 8F 48C 48P and 162Y which is 266 total seats.
So in terms for payload. It's gonna be way lighter compared to other A350-900/-1000 that airlines operate as long as they kept the premium seating at higher number.

So, A350-900 with A350-100 wings and engines might not be the answers for them. A350-1000ULR sounds more logical. The fuel penalty would be extremely problematic for them as well.

Don't forget that the fact that A350 ULR could be converted back to the normal version in a case when the ULR routes failed, means that Qantas would be more comfortable at purchasing the aircraft. By fitting the A350-900 with new wings and engines would resulted in the inability for the ULR to be converted back to the standard version.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:10 pm

zeke wrote:
jagraham wrote:
Airbus does it too; no major carrier has 316 seats on an A359; yet that is the number Airbus uses to figure out seat-mile fuel consumption.


There is a little airline in Asia called Thai that has 321 seats in their A350-900



Or Finnair that has 297 seats in three classes or another configuration that has 336. Asiana has 311 seats in three classes and Philippine Airlines has 295 seats in three classes, all of these airlines has either a Y comfort with increased pitch (less seats in the part of the cabin) or a Y+ product with one less seat per row and more pitch.
 
SQ317
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:51 pm

undertheradar wrote:
I am enjoying this thread, reading all the discussions/thoughts about the seat count/mix versus the length of the 'front running' aircraft. Just throw something else into the mix. It is confirmed that there will be a MAIN DECK SEPARATE ZONE 'wellness area' that ALL passengers can use, regardless of seating class. qantas has concluded that below deck/cargo area for passenger use is not feasible for their needs. This main deck zone will enable passengers to do simple exercises, stretch, yoga type things, with instructional videos on a communal screen. Also this area will include a 'quench drink station' with healthy beverages/juices on offer. No details about the size of this area, but it will take up space on the main deck and no 'regular' passenger seats will be placed there :)


I was under the impression that this "wellness zone" would still be below deck, a bit like LH's below deck lavs on A346s? A lightweight and space efficient solution.
Side note, would make sense to put some lavs down there too.
 
SQ317
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:57 pm

Gemuser wrote:
aryonoco wrote:
tealnz wrote:
Out of interest where does the “order for 10” come from? Have QF announced this? Or is it a guess?


It's a guess. The only 3 routes that AJ has talked of as definites are SYD-LHR SYD JFK and MEL-LHR. For those you'll need 6 frames + 1 for spare. So I would not at all be surprised if the initial order is for 7. They can add a dozen or more options to cover the eventuality that it goes very well and they end up launching to destinations such as CDG and FRA.

As for the number of seats, my money is on around 260.

Either aircraft can do the route. It will come down to a lot other factors such as financing, the guarantees the manufacturer is willing to give, etc.

You need 5 - 6 frames for just SYD/MEL - LHR, were always a 3 aircraft rotation each route until a few years ago when it was cut to 5 for both routes combined. Up thread Zeke argues that the non stoppers will requires 6 frames due the extreme time difference & curfews on both ends. He could well be right. This suggests that the minimum order is 9 - 10, 6 for LHR, 2 or 3 for JFK and 1 spare, plus options & purchase rights.

Gemuser


I agree that the only "definite" routes are SYD-LHR, MEL-LHR, SYD-JFK; if BNE-ORD is a success I can see this being transferred to SYD-ORD/SYD-ORD added alongside the BNE rotation. SYD-ORD at c9200m is too far for the 787s so would require a Sunrise jet. The ultimate Sunrise network as I see it (if the programme is a success) also includes BNE-LHR and MEL-JFK.

So:

Phase 1
SYD-LHR
SYD-JFK
MEL-LHR
9+1 frames

Phase 2
SYD-ORD (2 frames?)
MEL-JFK
BNE-JFK
8 frames

So the initial order might be for 10 frames and 8 options?
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:59 pm

SQ317 wrote:
undertheradar wrote:
I am enjoying this thread, reading all the discussions/thoughts about the seat count/mix versus the length of the 'front running' aircraft. Just throw something else into the mix. It is confirmed that there will be a MAIN DECK SEPARATE ZONE 'wellness area' that ALL passengers can use, regardless of seating class. qantas has concluded that below deck/cargo area for passenger use is not feasible for their needs. This main deck zone will enable passengers to do simple exercises, stretch, yoga type things, with instructional videos on a communal screen. Also this area will include a 'quench drink station' with healthy beverages/juices on offer. No details about the size of this area, but it will take up space on the main deck and no 'regular' passenger seats will be placed there :)


I was under the impression that this "wellness zone" would still be below deck, a bit like LH's below deck lavs on A346s? A lightweight and space efficient solution.
Side note, would make sense to put some lavs down there too.


I always thought they should move the economy toilets in the hold, to allow for extra space on the main deck, they could also have the stretch area there too.
 
aryonoco
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:08 pm

SQ317 wrote:

Phase 1
SYD-LHR
SYD-JFK
MEL-LHR
9+1 frames

Phase 2
SYD-ORD (2 frames?)
MEL-JFK
BNE-JFK
8 frames

So the initial order might be for 10 frames and 8 options?


I mostly agree with this, except BNE-JFK. I think MEL-DFW, SYD-FRA and SYD-GRU would all take priority over that.

If this 6t MTOW increase to the the 789 that people are speculating about actually materialises, I can see ORD and DFW both being well covered by the Dreamliner. Sunrise would then be exclusively used for the East coast, Europe and perhaps Brazil.
 
beerockxs
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:17 pm

zeke wrote:
jagraham wrote:
Airbus does it too; no major carrier has 316 seats on an A359; yet that is the number Airbus uses to figure out seat-mile fuel consumption.


There is a little airline in Asia called Thai that has 321 seats in their A350-900

There's also Lufthansa with 319.
 
SQ317
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:51 pm

aryonoco wrote:
SQ317 wrote:

Phase 1
SYD-LHR
SYD-JFK
MEL-LHR
9+1 frames

Phase 2
SYD-ORD (2 frames?)
MEL-JFK
BNE-JFK
8 frames

So the initial order might be for 10 frames and 8 options?


I mostly agree with this, except BNE-JFK. I think MEL-DFW, SYD-FRA and SYD-GRU would all take priority over that.

If this 6t MTOW increase to the the 789 that people are speculating about actually materialises, I can see ORD and DFW both being well covered by the Dreamliner. Sunrise would then be exclusively used for the East coast, Europe and perhaps Brazil.


I meant BNE-LHR not JFK, my mistake! My gut instinct is that LHR is the only Sunrise route that BNE could sustain. Agree on MEL-DFW (and SYD-DFW) with 789s, don't know enough about SYD-FRA/CDG/GRU to comment but seems a bit ambitious, although they have flown to FRA and CDG in the past.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 3:13 pm

beerockxs wrote:
zeke wrote:
jagraham wrote:
Airbus does it too; no major carrier has 316 seats on an A359; yet that is the number Airbus uses to figure out seat-mile fuel consumption.


There is a little airline in Asia called Thai that has 321 seats in their A350-900

There's also Lufthansa with 319.

Also Iberia with 348 ( 31C, 24P, 293Y) ! How did they manage to cram so many seats with lie flat 31 J seats and 24 proper premium economy !
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 3:55 pm

Pcoder wrote:
SQ317 wrote:
undertheradar wrote:
I am enjoying this thread, reading all the discussions/thoughts about the seat count/mix versus the length of the 'front running' aircraft. Just throw something else into the mix. It is confirmed that there will be a MAIN DECK SEPARATE ZONE 'wellness area' that ALL passengers can use, regardless of seating class. qantas has concluded that below deck/cargo area for passenger use is not feasible for their needs. This main deck zone will enable passengers to do simple exercises, stretch, yoga type things, with instructional videos on a communal screen. Also this area will include a 'quench drink station' with healthy beverages/juices on offer. No details about the size of this area, but it will take up space on the main deck and no 'regular' passenger seats will be placed there :)


I was under the impression that this "wellness zone" would still be below deck, a bit like LH's below deck lavs on A346s? A lightweight and space efficient solution.
Side note, would make sense to put some lavs down there too.


I always thought they should move the economy toilets in the hold, to allow for extra space on the main deck, they could also have the stretch area there too.

PER-LHR shows QF will fly cargo too. So not too much below deck space. Volume is needed (which is weight and drag).

I believe the business case drives this, as many have noted. This will be a pencil sharpening deal fought to the end.

Lightsaber
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ClassicLover
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:03 pm

SQ317 wrote:
I was under the impression that this "wellness zone" would still be below deck, a bit like LH's below deck lavs on A346s? A lightweight and space efficient solution.
Side note, would make sense to put some lavs down there too.


I certainly didn't think that would be below deck. It hasn't been specified either way, so we'll see what happens.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
AC77X
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:25 pm

Slightly off topic, but considering what plane QF orders, if NZ ever needs a similar plane, how many might it order?
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:41 pm

If NZ wants to do ULH, it will probably be with high gross weight 787-9s. The rumored 260 t 787-9 would do AKL-JFK just fine, and AKL-Western Europe isn't really realistic even with a Project Sunrise aircraft.
 
tomcat
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:25 pm

ewt340 wrote:
keesje wrote:
How many aircraft is this requirement and how many other customers will jump on it? ~25 aircraft 3 operators over 15 years?

Technically there are possibilities. Airbus and Boeing however don't want to go deeply non recurring & Qantas doesn't want to pay the price..

A350-900 XLR, merging A350-1000 wings, MTOW to the A350-900. Possible? No doubt, but the risk / ROI would put everybody off.

Image


The main problem would also comes down to configurations as well.

Qantas have high premium seats on their B787-9. It took almost 50% of cabin space for premium cabin for B787-9.

A350-900 in 4 class configurations using Qantas latest products (not sure about first class, staggered business class seat with 46" pitch between shells, 38" pitch for premium economy and 32" pitch for economy class) would resulted in around 230 seats on the cabin. 4F 44C 32P and 150Y.
A350-1000 would carry 8F 48C 48P and 162Y which is 266 total seats.
So in terms for payload. It's gonna be way lighter compared to other A350-900/-1000 that airlines operate as long as they kept the premium seating at higher number.

So, A350-900 with A350-100 wings and engines might not be the answers for them. A350-1000ULR sounds more logical. The fuel penalty would be extremely problematic for them as well.

Don't forget that the fact that A350 ULR could be converted back to the normal version in a case when the ULR routes failed, means that Qantas would be more comfortable at purchasing the aircraft. By fitting the A350-900 with new wings and engines would resulted in the inability for the ULR to be converted back to the standard version.


Besides having plenty of cargo capacity on LR/ULR flights, such an A350XLR could be converted to an excellent full freighter. A 316 tonnes MTOW A359XLRF would save more than 25% of fuel compared to the current 777F when hauling a payload of 102 tonnes over 5000 nm (provided that the MLW of the A359XLRF could be pushed to about 250 tonnes, otherwise it couldn't carry such a payload). Given that Airbus has only sold 80 A350 between the end of 2013 and today and that the A332F isn't selling well, it's about time to launch the A359F anyway. I agree though that compared to offering an A350ULR, Airbus would have to take a bigger risk to offer an A359XLR. They would probably have to commit to offer a cargo conversion for the A359XLR in case the ULR routes would fail.

Note that in terms of cabin configuration for the ULR routes, the A359XLR could be fitted with similar F/C/P seats numbers than the A35K and a much reduced Y cabin. This configuration would best retain the revenue generation potential of the ULR flights. This being said, I'm wondering if the F-class would be in as much demand on all the suggested ULR destinations as the SYD-LHR. If this wouldn't be the case, the current A359ULR could ideally supplement the A35KULR on the ULR-routes not requiring F-class.
 
jagraham
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:43 pm

tomcat wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
keesje wrote:
How many aircraft is this requirement and how many other customers will jump on it? ~25 aircraft 3 operators over 15 years?

Technically there are possibilities. Airbus and Boeing however don't want to go deeply non recurring & Qantas doesn't want to pay the price..

A350-900 XLR, merging A350-1000 wings, MTOW to the A350-900. Possible? No doubt, but the risk / ROI would put everybody off.

Image


The main problem would also comes down to configurations as well.

Qantas have high premium seats on their B787-9. It took almost 50% of cabin space for premium cabin for B787-9.

A350-900 in 4 class configurations using Qantas latest products (not sure about first class, staggered business class seat with 46" pitch between shells, 38" pitch for premium economy and 32" pitch for economy class) would resulted in around 230 seats on the cabin. 4F 44C 32P and 150Y.
A350-1000 would carry 8F 48C 48P and 162Y which is 266 total seats.
So in terms for payload. It's gonna be way lighter compared to other A350-900/-1000 that airlines operate as long as they kept the premium seating at higher number.

So, A350-900 with A350-100 wings and engines might not be the answers for them. A350-1000ULR sounds more logical. The fuel penalty would be extremely problematic for them as well.

Don't forget that the fact that A350 ULR could be converted back to the normal version in a case when the ULR routes failed, means that Qantas would be more comfortable at purchasing the aircraft. By fitting the A350-900 with new wings and engines would resulted in the inability for the ULR to be converted back to the standard version.


Besides having plenty of cargo capacity on LR/ULR flights, such an A350XLR could be converted to an excellent full freighter. A 316 tonnes MTOW A359XLRF would save more than 25% of fuel compared to the current 777F when hauling a payload of 102 tonnes over 5000 nm (provided that the MLW of the A359XLRF could be pushed to about 250 tonnes, otherwise it couldn't carry such a payload). Given that Airbus has only sold 80 A350 between the end of 2013 and today and that the A332F isn't selling well, it's about time to launch the A359F anyway. I agree though that compared to offering an A350ULR, Airbus would have to take a bigger risk to offer an A359XLR. They would probably have to commit to offer a cargo conversion for the A359XLR in case the ULR routes would fail.

Note that in terms of cabin configuration for the ULR routes, the A359XLR could be fitted with similar F/C/P seats numbers than the A35K and a much reduced Y cabin. This configuration would best retain the revenue generation potential of the ULR flights. This being said, I'm wondering if the F-class would be in as much demand on all the suggested ULR destinations as the SYD-LHR. If this wouldn't be the case, the current A359ULR could ideally supplement the A35KULR on the ULR-routes not requiring F-class.


What is the A350 floor made of? Will the A350 have the same problem the 777 is having with freight conversion (whole main floor must be ripped out and replaced because it can't handle container weights)? Bedek is trying to convert a 777 to freighter - are they even finished yet? At least there is a model in the form of the 77L . . .
 
tealnz
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:47 pm

seabosdca wrote:
If NZ wants to do ULH, it will probably be with high gross weight 787-9s. The rumored 260 t 787-9 would do AKL-JFK just fine, and AKL-Western Europe isn't really realistic even with a Project Sunrise aircraft.

We don’t have clarity on that point. It has been reported that QF would use a polar router (imagine a route roughly over Anchorage) for the “westbound” SYD/MEL-LHR sectors, with equivalent still air distance up to 9500nm. Last I checked the great circle distance for a similar route AKL-LHR was much the same as from Sydney, so it should be do-able. But we haven’t seen any analysis on LHR-AKL eastbound. At least on that sector winds should be favorable.
 
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cpd
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:02 pm

tomcat wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
keesje wrote:
How many aircraft is this requirement and how many other customers will jump on it? ~25 aircraft 3 operators over 15 years?

Technically there are possibilities. Airbus and Boeing however don't want to go deeply non recurring & Qantas doesn't want to pay the price..

A350-900 XLR, merging A350-1000 wings, MTOW to the A350-900. Possible? No doubt, but the risk / ROI would put everybody off.

Image


The main problem would also comes down to configurations as well.

Qantas have high premium seats on their B787-9. It took almost 50% of cabin space for premium cabin for B787-9.

A350-900 in 4 class configurations using Qantas latest products (not sure about first class, staggered business class seat with 46" pitch between shells, 38" pitch for premium economy and 32" pitch for economy class) would resulted in around 230 seats on the cabin. 4F 44C 32P and 150Y.
A350-1000 would carry 8F 48C 48P and 162Y which is 266 total seats.
So in terms for payload. It's gonna be way lighter compared to other A350-900/-1000 that airlines operate as long as they kept the premium seating at higher number.

So, A350-900 with A350-100 wings and engines might not be the answers for them. A350-1000ULR sounds more logical. The fuel penalty would be extremely problematic for them as well.

Don't forget that the fact that A350 ULR could be converted back to the normal version in a case when the ULR routes failed, means that Qantas would be more comfortable at purchasing the aircraft. By fitting the A350-900 with new wings and engines would resulted in the inability for the ULR to be converted back to the standard version.


Besides having plenty of cargo capacity on LR/ULR flights, such an A350XLR could be converted to an excellent full freighter. A 316 tonnes MTOW A359XLRF would save more than 25% of fuel compared to the current 777F when hauling a payload of 102 tonnes over 5000 nm (provided that the MLW of the A359XLRF could be pushed to about 250 tonnes, otherwise it couldn't carry such a payload). Given that Airbus has only sold 80 A350 between the end of 2013 and today and that the A332F isn't selling well, it's about time to launch the A359F anyway. I agree though that compared to offering an A350ULR, Airbus would have to take a bigger risk to offer an A359XLR. They would probably have to commit to offer a cargo conversion for the A359XLR in case the ULR routes would fail.

Note that in terms of cabin configuration for the ULR routes, the A359XLR could be fitted with similar F/C/P seats numbers than the A35K and a much reduced Y cabin. This configuration would best retain the revenue generation potential of the ULR flights. This being said, I'm wondering if the F-class would be in as much demand on all the suggested ULR destinations as the SYD-LHR. If this wouldn't be the case, the current A359ULR could ideally supplement the A35KULR on the ULR-routes not requiring F-class.



Qantas has 747 for freight (soon the 747-8F) so maybe that’s not so critical for this ULH Plane.

I see that damn fly has come back again... :roll:
 
DavidByrne
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:06 pm

tealnz wrote:
Last I checked the great circle distance for a similar route AKL-LHR was much the same as from Sydney, so it should be do-able.

I think that things must have changed since the last time you checked.This morning AKL is more than 800 miles further from LHR than SYD.
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aryonoco
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:12 pm

SQ317 wrote:
I meant BNE-LHR not JFK, my mistake! My gut instinct is that LHR is the only Sunrise route that BNE could sustain. Agree on MEL-DFW (and SYD-DFW) with 789s, don't know enough about SYD-FRA/CDG/GRU to comment but seems a bit ambitious, although they have flown to FRA and CDG in the past.


Agree with this. BNE-LHR is the only "Sunrise" route I can see BNE sustaining.

DFW and ORD will be covered by the 789.

Any potential route to FRA/CDG/GRU are further out, potentially a "phase 3".

Having said that, if all of these routes materialise, in say 10 years, QF could have quite a fantastic fleet of over two dozen of these Sunrise frames.
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:27 pm

cpd wrote:
Qantas has 747 for freight (soon the 747-8F) so maybe that’s not so critical for this ULH Plane.


QF only have 737 and 767 freighters
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:31 pm

aryonoco wrote:
Any potential route to FRA/CDG/GRU are further out, potentially a "phase 3".


QF is in dispute with PER airport, they want to use T3 to fly to Paris, and the airport wants them to use T1 like every other international flight
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VirginFlyer
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:35 pm

zeke wrote:
cpd wrote:
Qantas has 747 for freight (soon the 747-8F) so maybe that’s not so critical for this ULH Plane.


QF only have 737 and 767 freighters

They have two Atlas Air 747-400Fs on wet lease, soon to be replaced by 747-8Fs from the same operator: https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... ght-fleet/

V/F
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:41 pm

VirginFlyer wrote:
They have two Atlas Air 747-400Fs on wet lease, soon to be replaced by 747-8Fs from the same operator:

V/F


Yes I am aware of them, they are however not Qantas aircraft.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:43 pm

zeke wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
They have two Atlas Air 747-400Fs on wet lease, soon to be replaced by 747-8Fs from the same operator:

V/F


Yes I am aware of them, they are however not Qantas aircraft.

No, but they do have them for freight, which was cpd’s statement.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:48 pm

VirginFlyer wrote:
No, but they do have them for freight, which was cpd’s statement.


No he said QF have the 744 for freight soon to be replaced by the 748, they have no 747 freighters, only 737 and 767. They just lease capacity on 747s from Altas.

That would be like Fedex saying they have 737s based in Australia because they lease space on QF 737s.
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Airlines0613
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:06 am

zeke wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
No, but they do have them for freight, which was cpd’s statement.


No he said QF have the 744 for freight soon to be replaced by the 748, they have no 747 freighters, only 737 and 767. They just lease capacity on 747s from Altas.

That would be like Fedex saying they have 737s based in Australia because they lease space on QF 737s.

No, the aircraft are wet-leased and operated in behalf of QF. So yes, the previous poster was correct. You just can’t accept defeat, even if it’s right in front of you.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:16 am

Airlines0613 wrote:
No, the aircraft are wet-leased and operated in behalf of QF. So yes, the previous poster was correct. You just can’t accept defeat, even if it’s right in front of you.


They are not QF aircraft, they are Atlas aircraft, operated by Atlas crew. The same tail maybe does a few days of work for QF and then do a few days of work for us.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
Pcoder
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:23 am

On a side note, I do expect a Singapore Airlines MD-11 like condition in the contract, where if the airplane do not meet the requirements in 2022, then Qantas can cancel without penalty.
 
EBT
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Jun 06, 2019 3:00 am

lightsaber wrote:

PER-LHR shows QF will fly cargo too. So not too much below deck space. Volume is needed (which is weight and drag).

I believe the business case drives this, as many have noted. This will be a pencil sharpening deal fought to the end.

Lightsaber


Joyce has said that they won't carry freight on SYD/MEL-LHR, but maybe on JFK, which tells me that it will be treated as a "nice to have" rather than making or breaking the business case for the jets.

Neither Airbus nor Boeing have presented an aircraft that is a clear slam-dunk from a payload-range perspective, so it comes down to which compromises are most acceptable from an operating cost and revenue perspective, and of course the acquisition cost of the aircraft. Expect Qantas to drive an aggressive pricing effort, as they usually do.
 
aryonoco
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Jun 06, 2019 3:13 am

zeke wrote:
aryonoco wrote:
Any potential route to FRA/CDG/GRU are further out, potentially a "phase 3".


QF is in dispute with PER airport, they want to use T3 to fly to Paris, and the airport wants them to use T1 like every other international flight


Yes I'm aware of that. Are you saying that the potential for non-stop to CDG and FRA from MEL and SYD is perhaps higher than what most people here think?
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Jun 06, 2019 3:54 am

zeke wrote:
jagraham wrote:
Airbus does it too; no major carrier has 316 seats on an A359; yet that is the number Airbus uses to figure out seat-mile fuel consumption.


There is a little airline in Asia called Thai that has 321 seats in their A350-900


There is also this airline that operates out of a particularly high altitude airport and packs in 343 seats in their A359s.
 
mauro10
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Jun 06, 2019 4:19 am

Erebus wrote:
zeke wrote:
jagraham wrote:
Airbus does it too; no major carrier has 316 seats on an A359; yet that is the number Airbus uses to figure out seat-mile fuel consumption.


There is a little airline in Asia called Thai that has 321 seats in their A350-900


There is also this airline that operates out of a particularly high altitude airport and packs in 343 seats in their A359s.


Also LATAM Brasil at 348 (30C 18W 300Y)
 
jagraham
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Jun 06, 2019 4:32 am

Erebus wrote:
zeke wrote:
jagraham wrote:
Airbus does it too; no major carrier has 316 seats on an A359; yet that is the number Airbus uses to figure out seat-mile fuel consumption.


There is a little airline in Asia called Thai that has 321 seats in their A350-900


There is also this airline that operates out of a particularly high altitude airport and packs in 343 seats in their A359s.


and their longest flight with A359 is to PVG, 4773 nm
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Jun 06, 2019 4:38 am

jagraham wrote:
and their longest flight with A359 is to PVG, 4773 nm

You have been proven wrong with your statement that no major airline has 316 seats, some have more !!!!

Doesn’t mean they will not do different routes in the future.
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sabby
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:29 am

jagraham wrote:
Erebus wrote:
zeke wrote:

There is a little airline in Asia called Thai that has 321 seats in their A350-900


There is also this airline that operates out of a particularly high altitude airport and packs in 343 seats in their A359s.


and their longest flight with A359 is to PVG, 4773 nm


The airlines who have 290 or more seats in 787-9 do not fly more than ~6100nm. Does that mean Boeing is lying about 787-9 being able to do 7700nm with 290 pax ? Airlines do not buy planes to fly them to the max range, they buy and configure planes according to their need.
 
tealnz
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:50 am

DavidByrne wrote:
tealnz wrote:
Last I checked the great circle distance for a similar route AKL-LHR was much the same as from Sydney, so it should be do-able.

I think that things must have changed since the last time you checked.This morning AKL is more than 800 miles further from LHR than SYD.

I think not. Tot up SYD-ANC-LHR and AKl-ANC-LHR. Compare. “Similar route...”
 
tealnz
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:14 am

... meanwhile, Seattle Times, quoting Boeing CFO, is reporting possible delay for the 778:

In addition, demand for the 777X, and, in particular for the smaller 777-8X version, has been soft and recent sales have been sparse.

Boeing will build the 777-9X first and was expected to deliver the -8X model perhaps a year later. Smith said Boeing is “looking at the timing and demand for the -8 to see if that still makes sense and do we want to push that out?”
 
aviationaware
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:16 am

tealnz wrote:
... meanwhile, Seattle Times, quoting Boeing CFO, is reporting possible delay for the 778:

In addition, demand for the 777X, and, in particular for the smaller 777-8X version, has been soft and recent sales have been sparse.

Boeing will build the 777-9X first and was expected to deliver the -8X model perhaps a year later. Smith said Boeing is “looking at the timing and demand for the -8 to see if that still makes sense and do we want to push that out?”


That would still be in the timeframe for Sunrise though.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:24 am

tealnz wrote:
... meanwhile, Seattle Times, quoting Boeing CFO, is reporting possible delay for the 778:

In addition, demand for the 777X, and, in particular for the smaller 777-8X version, has been soft and recent sales have been sparse.

Boeing will build the 777-9X first and was expected to deliver the -8X model perhaps a year later. Smith said Boeing is “looking at the timing and demand for the -8 to see if that still makes sense and do we want to push that out?”


It is not only about a possible delay, but according to the wording there is doubt about the 777-8 making sense per se.

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