qf002
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:41 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
Better deals on future Dreamliners (since QF are probably going to order a bunch to replace some of their A330 fleet), or perhaps deals on being an early MoM/797 customer (Qantas could use it on Transcon/Trans-Tasman and also on flights to lower-yield Asian cities and/or flights from smaller Australian cities). Both would be pretty compelling for QF.


I doubt QF will be sold on future promises given their experience with Boeing in recent years. Maybe a bunch of very cheap 787s but certainly not anything that hinges on Boeing delivering the 797 anytime this side of 2030.

My thinking is very heavily subsidised 77Ls to cover the gap until the 778 is available. Could even give Boeing the upper hand if they are able to deliver an existing aircraft in 18 months rather than waiting 2-3 years for Airbus to get their -1000ULR up and running.
 
moa999
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:49 am

Think QF already has a bunch of pretty cheap 787 options
 
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scbriml
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:51 am

moa999 wrote:
Think QF already has a bunch of pretty cheap 787 options


Perhaps Boeing needs to "make a cheap plane even cheaper" to keep QF sweet? :wink2:
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enzo011
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:59 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
The only cities in Europe with sufficient yield and demand to support direct flights to and from Sydney/Melbourne are London, Paris and Frankfurt. I doubt that LH, AF or BA will buy a small subfleet of somewhat specialized aircraft just for those particular routes (where else could they go with such planes? Tahiti and Auckland lack the yields). BA would probably codeshare with Qantas. I doubt Virgin Atlantic have the resources to challenge Qantas on such routes either (and could they achieve enough yields?). Not to mention, all the European airlines have more profitable alternative opportunities that don't require specialized aircraft.

Admittedly this presumes it wouldn't be costless for a European airline to convert and A350-1000 into a ULR and then reconfigure the cabin into an appropriately high-yielding one for the route. This presumption seems fair to me though. Reconfiguring cabins is expensive, and airlines don't really like super-specialized subfleets.

It makes more sense, at least from what I've seen, for the European airlines to just codeshare on QF's metal. Or if they want to fly direct to Australia, Perth is at least theoretically feasible with current technology and standard LOPAs (at least for LH and maybe AF, but VX and BA would find things more difficult).


There is no question that Boeing could offer QF an very interesting option as compensation to keep them in the competition, but the question then still remains if QF will want to delay the London/Paris flights? Would getting the 797, which apparently has also been mothballed until the MAX is back in service, in 2025 (or later) be such an upside to not going for the Sunrise flights?


scbriml wrote:
So offer cheap-as-chips or leased 789s or 77Ls with guaranteed buy-back price so QF can trade them in for 778s when they're available? I don't see what else Boeing can do to try and keep in with QF.


My question then would be, surely these aircraft would have been in the running in the beginning if they are an option? My guess is that the statement is just some waffle to not exclude Boeing from the competition when there is enough bad news out there already, with the 777X delays and the MAX groundings.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:04 am

When is the PER airport issue going to be resolved!? From MEL to LHR via PER is currently the FASTEST route with a quick turn-around in PER due to the low number of 789 passengers versus a A380 (plus faster re-fueling). The A380 is a gas tanker. As more 789's get delivered they should launch PER-CDG and PER-FRA ASAP.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:37 am

enzo011 wrote:
My question then would be, surely these aircraft would have been in the running in the beginning if they are an option? My guess is that the statement is just some waffle to not exclude Boeing from the competition when there is enough bad news out there already, with the 777X delays and the MAX groundings.


QF made it clear the competition was narrowed down to A35K and 778.

If Boeing is delaying the 778, then the only thing they can do is offer QF alternative frames for project Sunrise in the interim until the 778 is available. Now, in QF's position, I would want some cast-iron guarantees from Boeing that the 778 will go ahead in the future, otherwise they might be stuck with frames they really didn't want. I don't see what else Boeing can do realistically.

IMHO, QF won't go down this route because I can't see how Boeing can sufficiently guarantee that the 778 will go ahead in anything like the timeframe that QF is wanting.
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Erebus
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:59 am

scbriml wrote:
Now, in QF's position, I would want some cast-iron guarantees from Boeing that the 778 will go ahead in the future, otherwise they might be stuck with frames they really didn't want. I don't see what else Boeing can do realistically.

IMHO, QF won't go down this route because I can't see how Boeing can sufficiently guarantee that the 778 will go ahead in anything like the timeframe that QF is wanting.


That's a good point to consider. If in case, Boeing decides to completely abandon the 778 in the future or at least tweak it in a way to gain more orders from other potential users but that it no longer meets QF's requirements,
 
Lufthansa
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:02 pm

scbriml wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
My question then would be, surely these aircraft would have been in the running in the beginning if they are an option? My guess is that the statement is just some waffle to not exclude Boeing from the competition when there is enough bad news out there already, with the 777X delays and the MAX groundings.


QF made it clear the competition was narrowed down to A35K and 778.

If Boeing is delaying the 778, then the only thing they can do is offer QF alternative frames for project Sunrise in the interim until the 778 is available. Now, in QF's position, I would want some cast-iron guarantees from Boeing that the 778 will go ahead in the future, otherwise they might be stuck with frames they really didn't want. I don't see what else Boeing can do realistically.

IMHO, QF won't go down this route because I can't see how Boeing can sufficiently guarantee that the 778 will go ahead in anything like the timeframe that QF is wanting.


Spot on. QF needs these new non-stop routes to keep things going and maintain a competitive advantage. The reality is Boeing have themselves in
a bit of a mess at the moment and one that's not likely to be resolved anytime soon. QF have a big ask out of them here. But either way it involves
introducing a new aircraft type so it really doesn't matter if it's Boeing or Airbus they'll have all the usual associated challenges of a new
type. The problem is this. The 77W already performs well and theres heaps of them in service around the world with heaps of life left in them.
They may want to keep QF buying Boeing wide bodies as Airbus seem to have a leg up narrow body wise now with their order book,
but its going to take more than QF to make this work. Remember QF was part of the design consult team for the initial 777-200 but instead
ended up with a large fleet of A330s.
 
moa999
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:08 pm

x1234 wrote:
When is the PER airport issue going to be resolved!? As more 789's get delivered they should launch PER-CDG and PER-FRA ASAP.


Who knows.
I suspect the issue is that the terminal needs $$ invested to support new flights and PER Airport isn't willing (or wants harsh terms) given they want to demolish the terminal in 5 years and move QF to an expanded T1 as per the Master Plan
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:27 pm

Would it be better for QF to replace the 787 on the PER-LHR route with the A35K ULR once it will be selected and "downgrade" the 787 for shorter routes but with more payload? The A35K ULR will most probably bring more payload for the PER-LHR route.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:42 pm

Erebus wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Now, in QF's position, I would want some cast-iron guarantees from Boeing that the 778 will go ahead in the future, otherwise they might be stuck with frames they really didn't want. I don't see what else Boeing can do realistically.

IMHO, QF won't go down this route because I can't see how Boeing can sufficiently guarantee that the 778 will go ahead in anything like the timeframe that QF is wanting.


That's a good point to consider. If in case, Boeing decides to completely abandon the 778 in the future or at least tweak it in a way to gain more orders from other potential users but that it no longer meets QF's requirements,


It is relevant that Boeing has announced this delay AFTER the final bids were received for Sunrise frames by Qantas. Airbus will not be able to increase the price they have tabled to take advantage of the 778 delay.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:51 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Erebus wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Now, in QF's position, I would want some cast-iron guarantees from Boeing that the 778 will go ahead in the future, otherwise they might be stuck with frames they really didn't want. I don't see what else Boeing can do realistically.

IMHO, QF won't go down this route because I can't see how Boeing can sufficiently guarantee that the 778 will go ahead in anything like the timeframe that QF is wanting.


That's a good point to consider. If in case, Boeing decides to completely abandon the 778 in the future or at least tweak it in a way to gain more orders from other potential users but that it no longer meets QF's requirements,


It is relevant that Boeing has announced this delay AFTER the final bids were received for Sunrise frames by Qantas. Airbus will not be able to increase the price they have tabled to take advantage of the 778 delay.


This is the first time i have seen someone mention price... i dont think that's been discussed and i would consider that the irrelevant part/outcome from the recent announcement... the relevant part being Airbus can deliver on time, Boeing can't anymore!
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:02 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
It is relevant that Boeing has announced this delay AFTER the final bids were received for Sunrise frames by Qantas. Airbus will not be able to increase the price they have tabled to take advantage of the 778 delay.


Great point there. It's certainly a good thing for Qantas that this wasn't announced beforehand.

Either way, nice to see both final bids are in and the announcement is due by year end. Safe to say Q4 is eagerly anticipated by me... and also probably by Airbus and Boeing. After today's announcement, I think Airbus might be in the lead on this one.
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PacoMartin
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:21 pm

Stitch wrote:
Probably a couple of factors:

1) Etihad intending to cancel their 777-8s.
2) Emirates either cancelling their 777-8s or converting them to 777-9s and/or 787s. They may or may not take A350-1000ULRs in place of the 777-8s.
3) Qantas choosing the A350-1000ULR for Project Sunrise.
4) Qatar either also signaling their intent to cancel/convert their 777-8 orders as the only customer, or being convinced to do so by Boeing, who do not want to invest in the program anymore for only 10 deliveries (QR's current order book of the model).


Those are pretty serious factors. In fact that covers about every possible order.

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates/PRNewswire/ wrote:
Nov. 17, 2013 ...
The Abu Dhabi-based carrier's order includes 25 777X airplanes, comprising 17 777-9Xs and eight 777-8Xs, subject to program launch. Etihad Airways is the first airline to order the 777-8X and will be a launch customer of the airplane, which is expected to enter service around the end of the decade. The order includes options and purchase rights for 12 additional 777X airplanes.


My understanding is that the Etihad 777 order is now down to six 777-9Xs.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:30 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Airbus will not be able to increase the price they have tabled to take advantage of the 778 delay.


US English "tabled" means to "postpone consideration of"
BRITISH English "tabled" means "present formally for discussion or consideration at a meeting".

The different meanings were commented on by General Eisenhower as very confusing.

What does "tabled" mean in Australian English? How about Canadian?
 
Eyad89
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:31 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
Would it be better for QF to replace the 787 on the PER-LHR route with the A35K ULR once it will be selected and "downgrade" the 787 for shorter routes but with more payload? The A35K ULR will most probably bring more payload for the PER-LHR route.


With the super high average LF reported on that flight, I would definitely say they will upgrade PER-LHR to the possible A350.
 
moa999
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:39 pm

But how much of that LF is due to pax who will take SYD-LHR and MEL-LHR instead
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:49 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
My understanding is that the Etihad 777 order is now down to six 777-9Xs.


Boeing still shows Etihad with 25 x 777X orders in the total backlog of 344 frames.
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:50 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
Airbus will not be able to increase the price they have tabled to take advantage of the 778 delay.


US English "tabled" means to "postpone consideration of"
BRITISH English "tabled" means "present formally for discussion or consideration at a meeting".

The different meanings were commented on by General Eisenhower as very confusing.

What does "tabled" mean in Australian English? How about Canadian?


In Australian English it is the same as British... it's also the same in Irish English. I daresay it's also the same for Canadian. Usually it's only the US that differs when it comes to word meanings.
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:57 pm

This article makes it seem like Boeing was the winner...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thestr ... t-15057952
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 3:06 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
It is relevant that Boeing has announced this delay AFTER the final bids were received for Sunrise frames by Qantas. Airbus will not be able to increase the price they have tabled to take advantage of the 778 delay.

So in that regard they did QF a favor by keeping Airbus's feet to the fire, and did themselves a favor by reducing Airbus's profit margin on these relatively niche A350ULR++ aircraft.
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 3:07 pm

Spetsnaz55 wrote:
This article makes it seem like Boeing was the winner...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thestr ... t-15057952


Would you trust Boeing with everything going on with them at the moment? I wouldn’t.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 3:17 pm

Spetsnaz55 wrote:
This article makes it seem like Boeing was the winner...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thestr ... t-15057952

It doesn't really, until Qantas announces their decission Boeing will tell keep on telling everybody that they are still talking and working together on the design. And Qantas will still be their valued customer even if they pick Airbus this time, they still operate the 737 and 787 after all.
 
Spetsnaz55
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 3:24 pm

Maybe I'm just reading this wrong

"The plane was being planned for use for 21-hour non-stop flights between Sydney, Australia and London for Qantas Airways. The Australian airline said that it had hoped for first deliveries of the planes in 2022 and for the launch of the world's longest commercial flight in 2023. "
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 3:46 pm

Slug71 wrote:
So I guess the Freighter will likely be based on the -9X instead of the -8X?
Or the -8X becomes solely a Freighter once 777F orders dwindle to the point a production shift becomes viable?


There can be no case for investing in a new freighter when Boeing has a monopoly in that market and current models are selling well.

Geoff
 
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scbriml
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 3:59 pm

Spetsnaz55 wrote:
Maybe I'm just reading this wrong

"The plane was being planned for use for 21-hour non-stop flights between Sydney, Australia and London for Qantas Airways. The Australian airline said that it had hoped for first deliveries of the planes in 2022 and for the launch of the world's longest commercial flight in 2023. "


Meaning that Boeing was planning for QF to use the plane in the same way that Airbus are planning for QF using the A350. QF will decide which of those plans it wants to go with.
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:17 pm

Geoff1947 wrote:
There can be no case for investing in a new freighter when Boeing has a monopoly in that market and current models are selling well.

True, but keeping the 77F alive is not very efficient for Boeing, GE and the other vendors in that supply chain who at some point will prefer to focus on 77X technology.
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:21 pm

Slug71 wrote:
So I guess the Freighter will likely be based on the -9X instead of the -8X? Or the -8X becomes solely a Freighter once 777F orders dwindle to the point a production shift becomes viable?


The 777-8 makes the most sense as a replacement for the 777 Freighter. 777 Freighter sales are still decent at the moment and Boeing needs them to keep the 777 FAL moving while they get the 777X FAL into a normal production cadence. As such, the market for a 777-8 freighter is probably deeper into the next decade and Boeing need not have a passenger version of the 777-8 before they have a freighter so they can halt development on the passenger model indefinitely and only focus on a freighter version.


As for this "compelling offer" to Qantas, I definitely do not see 777-200LRs as fitting that description. Last decade Qantas issued RFPs for the 777-200LR and A340-500 for PER-LHR, PER-HNL and SYD-LHR. I recall that for LHR-SYD, the 777-200LR was under 200 seats and the A340-500 was 120 seats so QF decided against launching those routes.

I believe that Boeing is receiving strong signals that their existing 777-8 order book is going to contract a significant amount and are now evaluating if there are enough frames left to justify the expense of offering the model. As with the 777-200LR, which also saw it's development suspended for a time due to low orders, Boeing might be hoping that a strong 777-9 flight test result would boost confidence in the 777-8 and in turn increase interest in the frame (either to recover pre-existing orders that were lost or to secure new orders to replace them).

Pure speculation on my part, but if Qantas is thinking of pushing Project Sunrise back (the world economy is starting to look shaky as trade wars are looming), that would give Boeing the window they would like to re-evaluate the general market interest in the 777-8. So I could see part of this "compelling offer" to Qantas offering incentives for them to delay Project Sunrise a few years to keep the 777-8 in the running, even if the A350-1000ULR would be available by then, as well.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:59 pm

Stitch wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
So I guess the Freighter will likely be based on the -9X instead of the -8X? Or the -8X becomes solely a Freighter once 777F orders dwindle to the point a production shift becomes viable?


The 777-8 makes the most sense as a replacement for the 777 Freighter. 777 Freighter sales are still decent at the moment and Boeing needs them to keep the 777 FAL moving while they get the 777X FAL into a normal production cadence. As such, the market for a 777-8 freighter is probably deeper into the next decade and Boeing need not have a passenger version of the 777-8 before they have a freighter so they can halt development on the passenger model indefinitely and only focus on a freighter version.


As for this "compelling offer" to Qantas, I definitely do not see 777-200LRs as fitting that description. Last decade Qantas issued RFPs for the 777-200LR and A340-500 for PER-LHR, PER-HNL and SYD-LHR. I recall that for LHR-SYD, the 777-200LR was under 200 seats and the A340-500 was 120 seats so QF decided against launching those routes.

I believe that Boeing is receiving strong signals that their existing 777-8 order book is going to contract a significant amount and are now evaluating if there are enough frames left to justify the expense of offering the model. As with the 777-200LR, which also saw it's development suspended for a time due to low orders, Boeing might be hoping that a strong 777-9 flight test result would boost confidence in the 777-8 and in turn increase interest in the frame (either to recover pre-existing orders that were lost or to secure new orders to replace them).

Pure speculation on my part, but if Qantas is thinking of pushing Project Sunrise back (the world economy is starting to look shaky as trade wars are looming), that would give Boeing the window they would like to re-evaluate the general market interest in the 777-8. So I could see part of this "compelling offer" to Qantas offering incentives for them to delay Project Sunrise a few years to keep the 777-8 in the running, even if the A350-1000ULR would be available by then, as well.


For what its worth I think a strong over-performance by the 777-9X in flight testing would be another nail in the coffin for the passenger 777-8X, as it would make the use case for the extra range over the 777-9X even more marginal, just as it did for the 77L when the 77W overperformed.
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:51 pm

Meanwhile, Jon O ( https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... tas-deals/ ) gives us a teaser that Team B has something up its sleeves:

Promised performance boosts to the 787 for Air New Zealand were a major factor in the carrier’s decision this week to purchase eight 787-10 aircraft from Boeing, according to those familiar with the deal. For Qantas, the plane maker is also privately sharing early details of changes coming to the 777X, aimed at enabling Project Sunrise, the airline’s pursuit to connect Australia’s largest city with London and New York without stopping.

Not sure what this means.

With a 'mothballed' 778X, is an improved 779X in play?

Or is Boeing suggesting an improved 8X is going to be worth waiting for, even though they can't say when they plan to build it?
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PacoMartin
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:06 pm

scbriml wrote:
Boeing still shows Etihad with 25 x 777X orders in the total backlog of 344 frames.


There is a common practice known as ‘deferring’, whereby a carrier will not formally cancel the aircraft, but instead indicate that it has no current intention to proceed with the order, and hence will continuously ‘push-back’ production, until forced to make a technical cancellation.

That practice was used to the extreme with the A380 where Virgin Atlantic ordered some A380s out of the initial 50 orders in the year 2000. Airbus required 50 orders to initiate the program. VA simply deferred their orders until Airbus eventually canceled the A380 program.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:18 pm

x1234 wrote:
When is the PER airport issue going to be resolved!? From MEL to LHR via PER is currently the FASTEST route with a quick turn-around in PER due to the low number of 789 passengers versus a A380 (plus faster re-fueling). The A380 is a gas tanker. As more 789's get delivered they should launch PER-CDG and PER-FRA ASAP.


Wouldn't SYD-PER-LHR or BNE-PER-LHR be a higher priority?
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:35 pm

I think it is important for QF that it is the FIRST to fly SYD -LHR non-stop.

If they delay their decision to enable the 778 to compete, they run the risk that a competitor will commence the route instead, with the Airbus product.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:55 pm

Revelation wrote:
Meanwhile, Jon O ( https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... tas-deals/ ) gives us a teaser that Team B has something up its sleeves:

Promised performance boosts to the 787 for Air New Zealand were a major factor in the carrier’s decision this week to purchase eight 787-10 aircraft from Boeing, according to those familiar with the deal. For Qantas, the plane maker is also privately sharing early details of changes coming to the 777X, aimed at enabling Project Sunrise, the airline’s pursuit to connect Australia’s largest city with London and New York without stopping.

Not sure what this means.

With a 'mothballed' 778X, is an improved 779X in play?

Or is Boeing suggesting an improved 8X is going to be worth waiting for, even though they can't say when they plan to build it?


Scott Hamilton is suggesting the 777-8 will be delayed by about 2 years

https://leehamnews.com/2019/08/05/boein ... -for-777x/

The SMH is reporting that QF could delay their decision on Project Sunrise. Last week at the CAPA event in SYD QF CEO Alan Joyce said they were currently putting all their resources into Project Sunrise and was hoping to reach a decision by the end of the year if the business case makes sense.

https://blueswandaily.com/qantas-sees-r ... lan-joyce/

A Qantas spokesperson also says the 777-8 is not out of contention

A Qantas spokesman said Boeing's delay delivering the 777X-8 did not mean the aircraft was out of contention, and it continued to work with both manufacturers.


https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 1565857287
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JBusworth
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:08 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
x1234 wrote:
When is the PER airport issue going to be resolved!? From MEL to LHR via PER is currently the FASTEST route with a quick turn-around in PER due to the low number of 789 passengers versus a A380 (plus faster re-fueling). The A380 is a gas tanker. As more 789's get delivered they should launch PER-CDG and PER-FRA ASAP.


Wouldn't SYD-PER-LHR or BNE-PER-LHR be a higher priority?


QF already flies SYD-SIN-LHR and it would be unlikely for them to launch any more PER-LHR flights imo. Qantas has made it clear in the past that the next long haul out of Perth would either be JNB or CDG and that they have slots in both to launch such flights, whilst I'm not sure PER-LHR can really cope with a doubling of capacity. A SYD-PER-CDG flight isn't be out of the question, but a SYD-PER-LHR flight would shock me.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:41 pm

qf789 wrote:
Scott Hamilton is suggesting the 777-8 will be delayed by about 2 years

https://leehamnews.com/2019/08/05/boein ... -for-777x/

The SMH is reporting that QF could delay their decision on Project Sunrise. Last week at the CAPA event in SYD QF CEO Alan Joyce said they were currently putting all their resources into Project Sunrise and was hoping to reach a decision by the end of the year if the business case makes sense.

https://blueswandaily.com/qantas-sees-r ... lan-joyce/

A Qantas spokesperson also says the 777-8 is not out of contention

A Qantas spokesman said Boeing's delay delivering the 777X-8 did not mean the aircraft was out of contention, and it continued to work with both manufacturers.


https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 1565857287

Thank you for the well researched post with very interesting links.

I think the idea that QF may delay their plans and the 778 is still in contention is pretty exciting.

It's just really odd timing for Boeing to decide to drop the 'mothballing' announcement, but then again, aviation some times is an odd business.
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:46 pm

Revelation wrote:
Meanwhile, Jon O ( https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... tas-deals/ ) gives us a teaser that Team B has something up its sleeves:

Promised performance boosts to the 787 for Air New Zealand were a major factor in the carrier’s decision this week to purchase eight 787-10 aircraft from Boeing, according to those familiar with the deal. For Qantas, the plane maker is also privately sharing early details of changes coming to the 777X, aimed at enabling Project Sunrise, the airline’s pursuit to connect Australia’s largest city with London and New York without stopping.

Not sure what this means.

With a 'mothballed' 778X, is an improved 779X in play?

Or is Boeing suggesting an improved 8X is going to be worth waiting for, even though they can't say when they plan to build it?


This article dates from May and I think that talking about changes coming to the 777X in the context of the Project Sunrise meant that Boeing was looking at optimizing the configuration of the 778X, not the 779X. That optimization is about getting as much fuel capacity as required and get as much weight out of it. I speculate that in order to get to the appropriate weight, the length of the 778X could have been revised slightly downards compared to the length that had been known until now (remember Qantas waiting for more weight information from Boeing about a year ago?). The 778X configuration is not frozen after all and Boeing was going to/will settle on the configuration that gives the best prospect of finding customers going forward, including for the freighter version. A configuration optimized for the ME customers might not be the most desirable for Boeing today given that the ME customers of the 778X are expected to reduce their orders for that plane or even not take it at all.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:49 pm

Revelation wrote:
It's just really odd timing for Boeing to decide to drop the 'mothballing' announcement, but then again, aviation some times is an odd business.


If QF wants to delay (again, speculation on my part) and existing customers are talking cancellation, conversion or deferral then I could understand why Boeing might want to temporarily suspend development of the 777-8 to focus on getting the 777-9 into service. We saw something similar almost two decades ago when Boeing suspended development of the 777-200LR for a couple of years due to lack of interest to focus getting the 777-300ER into service. Once Boeing restarted 777-200LR development, they did so as both a passenger and freighter model.

I was operating under the assumption the demand and young age of the 777 Freighter fleet would mean Boeing would launch a 777-8 Freighter later rather than sooner, but based on Leeham.net, Boeing might be considering doing the same play with the 777-8 as they did the 777-200LR - hold development for a bit so they can design the passenger and freighter versions in tandem for a quick successive EIS.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:48 am

The wording about "seamless transition" is the only interesting part of that Boeing quote. It does suggest that the 777-8 may look a little different than originally planned.

I'm skeptical that Qantas will want to delay Sunrise, even if there is going to be a global contraction. There will still be plenty of premium demand between LHR and MEL/SYD and a strong case for it to prefer a nonstop. So I wonder what Boeing could possibly have up its sleeve. 777-200LRs, even with all of the improvements that have been baked into the 777-300ER, don't seem like the right deal for anyone. Perhaps a fleet of all-J, 260 t 787-9s to open the route, sold cheap enough to make reconfiguring it to vanilla configuration when the 777-8 enters service worth it, or on short-term lease?
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:49 am

qf002 wrote:
StudiodeKadent wrote:
Better deals on future Dreamliners (since QF are probably going to order a bunch to replace some of their A330 fleet), or perhaps deals on being an early MoM/797 customer (Qantas could use it on Transcon/Trans-Tasman and also on flights to lower-yield Asian cities and/or flights from smaller Australian cities). Both would be pretty compelling for QF.


I doubt QF will be sold on future promises given their experience with Boeing in recent years. Maybe a bunch of very cheap 787s but certainly not anything that hinges on Boeing delivering the 797 anytime this side of 2030.

My thinking is very heavily subsidised 77Ls to cover the gap until the 778 is available. Could even give Boeing the upper hand if they are able to deliver an existing aircraft in 18 months rather than waiting 2-3 years for Airbus to get their -1000ULR up and running.


That might give Boeing an upper hand, but might not give QF the upper hand - anything QF can do with the 77L, DL can also do and sooner. So it could just hand first mover advantage on JFK to DL.

qf789 wrote:
A Qantas spokesperson also says the 777-8 is not out of contention

A Qantas spokesman said Boeing's delay delivering the 777X-8 did not mean the aircraft was out of contention, and it continued to work with both manufacturers.


https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 1565857287


Reading the article, that sounds like corporate non-speak to me. The kind of language you use when you're in a position where you can't say nothing, but you don't want to (or can't) say anything either. Happy to be proven wrong, though!
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:19 am

seabosdca wrote:
Perhaps a fleet of all-J, 260 t 787-9s to open the route, sold cheap enough to make reconfiguring it to vanilla configuration when the 777-8 enters service worth it, or on short-term lease?


And... to respond to my own post, this isn't feasible without a 787 AFT that no one has developed yet. The 787-9 becomes fuel volume limited somewhere around 8500 nm depending on your payload, and can't carry enough fuel to take advantage of a 254 t MTOW (let alone a 260 t one) over a distance like LHR-SYD. It would be flying virtually empty. So unless Boeing has either a 787 auxiliary fuel tank or a 787-8ER up its sleeve, the 787 isn't an option.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:54 am

enzo011 wrote:

There is no question that Boeing could offer QF an very interesting option as compensation to keep them in the competition, but the question then still remains if QF will want to delay the London/Paris flights? Would getting the 797, which apparently has also been mothballed until the MAX is back in service, in 2025 (or later) be such an upside to not going for the Sunrise flights?


QF clearly want to do the Sunrise flights ASAP, and I'm not doubting that whatsoever. But Qantas makes their biggest profits in the Australian domestic market, and could also use the 797 on several short/medium-haul international routes. If the 797 can further increase their domestic/short-haul-international profitability then that could be a huge boon for Qantas, enough to make QF willing to wait on Sunrise.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:09 am

I'm thinking the comment about Qantas in the 778 delay is more or less to save face. It doesn't look good to capitulate.

The problem is if Qantas waits for the 778, another carrier might steal their limelight and get the a350-1000ulr and start operating the Lhr-syd route before them. Another airline getting in before them could effect the viability for them.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:23 am

qf789 wrote:

The SMH is reporting that QF could delay their decision on Project Sunrise. Last week at the CAPA event in SYD QF CEO Alan Joyce said they were currently putting all their resources into Project Sunrise and was hoping to reach a decision by the end of the year if the business case makes sense.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 1565857287


This article is not reflective of the title - if you read to the end of it you can see what QF says. The rest of it is journalist speculation.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:23 am

Stitch wrote:
Pure speculation on my part, but if Qantas is thinking of pushing Project Sunrise back (the world economy is starting to look shaky as trade wars are looming), that would give Boeing the window they would like to re-evaluate the general market interest in the 777-8. So I could see part of this "compelling offer" to Qantas offering incentives for them to delay Project Sunrise a few years to keep the 777-8 in the running, even if the A350-1000ULR would be available by then, as well.


Personally I don’t see why Boeing is even entertaining this order at this stage. The company is in significant crisis.

It has significant issues in both the civil and military programs, it needs to move resources to grab the low hanging fruit so it can start generating cash flow again quickly.

The last thing they need at this time is what essentially is a small niece order that needs a lot of resources. IMHO they should forget about them and push a couple hundred 737s out the door.
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:33 am

Pcoder wrote:
The problem is if Qantas waits for the 778, another carrier might steal their limelight and get the a350-1000ulr and start operating the Lhr-syd route before them. Another airline getting in before them could effect the viability for them.


The only airlines in a position to do this are VA, VX and BA.

BA are in the same alliance as QF, and could just codeshare/put their customers on Qantas metal. Plus they have more pressing issues like updating their fleet and their hard product. They also have more profitable markets to send their new jets to. Plus, why would BA want an orphan fleet of perhaps 5 A350-1000ULRs just to service Sydney and Melbourne (the only cities that have the yields that could sustain such flights)? Where else could they fly to with these jets profitably? Tahiti and Auckland are likely both out of reach and lack the yields/demand.

VX may not be able to command the necessary yields, and also wouldn't want the orphan fleet.

VA is in financial dire straights at the moment, probably cannot command the necessary yields, and also wouldn't want an orphan fleet (not to mention that an A350-1000 is too big for them).

I think its unlikely any airline is going to even want to take QF's first mover advantage.
 
a19901213
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:52 am

Recent signs to me show that AB might have won this one already.

Rumour of 350-1000ULR and 778’s delay in development came around in the same time. It’s hard to believe it’s just a coincidence.

I guess we’ll find out soon.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:56 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
enzo011 wrote:

There is no question that Boeing could offer QF an very interesting option as compensation to keep them in the competition, but the question then still remains if QF will want to delay the London/Paris flights? Would getting the 797, which apparently has also been mothballed until the MAX is back in service, in 2025 (or later) be such an upside to not going for the Sunrise flights?


QF clearly want to do the Sunrise flights ASAP, and I'm not doubting that whatsoever. But Qantas makes their biggest profits in the Australian domestic market, and could also use the 797 on several short/medium-haul international routes. If the 797 can further increase their domestic/short-haul-international profitability then that could be a huge boon for Qantas, enough to make QF willing to wait on Sunrise.


QF don't seem to be in any hurry to implement Sunrise. Just look at the title for this topic and how long it has been running.
 
Pcoder
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Fri Aug 16, 2019 3:00 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
Pcoder wrote:
The problem is if Qantas waits for the 778, another carrier might steal their limelight and get the a350-1000ulr and start operating the Lhr-syd route before them. Another airline getting in before them could effect the viability for them.


The only airlines in a position to do this are VA, VX and BA.

BA are in the same alliance as QF, and could just codeshare/put their customers on Qantas metal. Plus they have more pressing issues like updating their fleet and their hard product. They also have more profitable markets to send their new jets to. Plus, why would BA want an orphan fleet of perhaps 5 A350-1000ULRs just to service Sydney and Melbourne (the only cities that have the yields that could sustain such flights)? Where else could they fly to with these jets profitably? Tahiti and Auckland are likely both out of reach and lack the yields/demand.

VX may not be able to command the necessary yields, and also wouldn't want the orphan fleet.

VA is in financial dire straights at the moment, probably cannot command the necessary yields, and also wouldn't want an orphan fleet (not to mention that an A350-1000 is too big for them).

I think its unlikely any airline is going to even want to take QF's first mover advantage.


BA and VS (VX was Virgin America) have the a350-1000 already on order and in their fleet already. From what was done with the a350-900ULR , the 1000ulr should just be a modification to the fuel tank system, which would allow them to convert back if need be.

QF and BA are not the BFFs they used to be, so I don't see them holding out for an extended period of time and VS is definitely not friends with QF, same with Delta who could even champion VS doing this first.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Fri Aug 16, 2019 3:08 am

VX may not be able to command the necessary yields, and also wouldn't want the orphan fleet.

VA is in financial dire straights at the moment, probably cannot command the necessary yields, and also wouldn't want an orphan fleet (not to mention that an A350-1000 is too big for them).

You mean VS, not VX which is now defunct.

Given both BS and BA have the A35K, a fleet of A35KULH wouldn't be that much of an orphan.

VA would not be interested in such a long distance flight and has no slots at LHR anyway.

BA are in the same alliance as QF, and could just codeshare/put their customers on Qantas metal

In theory yes, but without JSA immunity, which would be unlikely as long as QF also has its JSA with EK, this is unlikely.

QF clearly want to do the Sunrise flights ASAP, and I'm not doubting that whatsoever. But Qantas makes their biggest profits in the Australian domestic market, and could also use the 797 on several short/medium-haul international routes. If the 797 can further increase their domestic/short-haul-international profitability then that could be a huge boon for Qantas, enough to make QF willing to wait on Sunrise.

AJ has made a lot of noise about Sunrise and wants it to happen before he finishes up as QF CEO; I don't think he could tolerate a delay of 2 or 3 years. He has already been CEO for 11 years. Seeing him remain the role beyond 15 years is unlikely.

The 797 is attractive to QF but realistically it is unlikely to arrive before 2027. QF will need to replace most of its 738 fleet before then and that is probably more important right now and Boeing would be better advised to concentrate on that competition particularly as the QF Group is already investing in the 321Neo and the MAX issues may be pushing them further that way.

Wouldn't SYD-PER-LHR or BNE-PER-LHR be a higher priority?

QF already offer one-stop service to LHR from BNE and SYD via SIN. It is hard to see what re-routing these services through PER instead would gain. Pax can already join QF9 in PER if they desire but it isn't any quicker than the SIN option. If anything, a successful launch of non-stop services to LHR from MEL and SYD may see the PER-LHR service canned.
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