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ikolkyo
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Re: Britiah Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:38 pm

pabloeing wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
Andy33 wrote:
Well, they've placed an order to remove the three remaining 772-nonER entirely from the fleet. Back in November 2016 they told their investors that the 772ERs would have a 30 year life. If that's still the case, they don't need any replacement for them until starting 2027 and 2018 seems a bit early to be placing an order. The investors aren't going to be best pleased if all that capital investment has been brought nearer to today (should the policy have changed) without any advance warning.

The timing of 787-10 and A35K deliveries as against 744 retirements suggests that there will be 12 744s still in service after the last of the current orders has arrived, so while all the A35Ks are officially declared as 744 replacements, some of those 12 787-10s may be for expansion if market conditions are right. If the expansion happens, they'll need 12 further airframes to replace the last 744s (that's how many IAG say will still be around in 2023), all for delivery before February 2024, the announced end date for 744s at BA
All that assumes that A350 and 787 deliveries happen as scheduled, and IAG doesn't change its plans...


If BA are to place an order to replace their remaining 12x 744s, it would be strange to place an order for anything less than 12 777-9s. It would be another widebody type for them, so keeping a small subfleet would not make much sense. I'm not sure when the leases of their 77W's expire, maybe BA needs to replace these leased birds too.


IF IAG orders the 777-9 for BA (and I'll believe it when I see it), would it be possible they'll simultaneously order A350-1000s for Iberia? I think IB have some A346s still to be replaced.


I see the B777-9X in IB too......


A35K is the more likely option for them, if I remember correctly their A359s already seat about 348 passengers. A similarly configured A35K should be able to provide a big enough jump for them if justified.
 
Arion640
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:48 pm

par13del wrote:
The problem with BA slot restrictions at LHR is that for expansion to the USA they require multiple slots since they are sending a/c to multiple airports, now if they were to upgrade their JFK terminal they could consolidate a number of their frequencies into A380's and allow their JV partner AA to handle those pax who require more options, at least they have an alternative to pax defecting to other carriers.


Frequency and flexibility is the key on the JFK run, it is basically a bus service. 380’s are not the answer.

As long as BA are in Terminal 7 it won’t happen. They struggle to get a 747 on to stand there (usually have to shut engines down and use a tug) let alone a short and fat A380.
 
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Jayafe
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Re: Britiah Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 3:47 pm

aviationaware wrote:
No professional in his right mind is falling for this Brexit panic mongering.


I’m sorry to burst your bubble but I can tell you first hand that 99% of big players in London (banks, insurances, investment funds and trading houses) have spent the last 6 months dumping millions of £s in preparations for exactly that “panic” scenario. But hey, what would they know? ;) I guess none of them are called professionals...

pabloeing wrote:
I see the B777-9X in IB too......


Not for many times the same posters repeat it means IAG is going to change their fleet structure, even less with IB which is still in the process of becoming healthy. BA is the only rara avis in the whole group, purely for “British” reasons...
 
Andy33
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:01 pm

Erebus wrote:
BA has 18 A350-1000 on order, but don't they have another 18 options for it?


BA itself has hardly any options left for anything - just a handful of 787 and A380s left from pre-merger days. It is IAG that holds the options, so they can allocate planes to different fleets if market demand changes without any penalty from the manufacturer, and they have many more than 18 A350 options. From memory it is more like 40 but I don't have my source references with me. All the options, for A320s, A350s, and 787s, that IAG holds don't specify the exact model. That is set at time of conversion to order, and it is IAG, not BA that will place any orders.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Britiah Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:06 pm

Andy33 wrote:
Back in November 2016 they told their investors that the 772ERs would have a 30 year life. If that's still the case, they don't need any replacement for them until starting 2027 and 2018 seems a bit early to be placing an order.


Not really, you might have to wait 4-5 years for the delivery, and the entire process of negotiating and ordering the aircraft could take several years too. By the time everything is done and the aircraft are delivered, they will be 30-ish anyway. Even with an optimistic timeframe, the oldest ones will be 27 years old at the time of replacement.

Most of the 777-200ERs were delivered within a 3 year period, which was very fast. By comparison, the A350 deliveries to Cathay (24 planes, about half the BA 777 fleet) took 3 years, and Qatar spent 4 years getting to 30. It took AA 6 years to build a fleet of 37 787s. So if BA is going to get them in a similar timeframe, and not exceed 30 years on any 777, then they will have to start a bit earlier.
And then again, plans can always change, and they didn't specifically say that each and every 777-200ER was going to stay to at least 30 years.
 
Antarius
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:12 pm

Andy33 wrote:
Erebus wrote:
BA has 18 A350-1000 on order, but don't they have another 18 options for it?


BA itself has hardly any options left for anything - just a handful of 787 and A380s left from pre-merger days. It is IAG that holds the options, so they can allocate planes to different fleets if market demand changes without any penalty from the manufacturer, and they have many more than 18 A350 options. From memory it is more like 40 but I don't have my source references with me. All the options, for A320s, A350s, and 787s, that IAG holds don't specify the exact model. That is set at time of conversion to order, and it is IAG, not BA that will place any orders.


Yes, but it isn't like IAG makes decisions in a vacuum. BA is by far the most valuable piece of IAG so while IAG may place the order, BA's needs are definitely a huge part of this order.
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scbriml
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:31 pm

Erebus wrote:
BA has 18 A350-1000 on order, but don't they have another 18 options for it?


IAG has lots of A350 options.
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JamesCousins
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Re: Britiah Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:39 pm

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
I'm curious how confident their fleet planning group can be given the lack of any idea of what the post Brexit environment will look like. Smaller orders sure, but a big order suggests you have some confidence of how things will look.


It won't make a sod of difference. Maybe I'm drastically wrong, and you can come back to me in a couple of years to remind me if you so desire, but imo nothing will change in the long run...
Q400, A320-200, A321-200, 737-500, 737-800, 747-400, 757-200, 787-9 // FCA, TOM, TUI, MON, MT, BA, VS, DL, BE, X9, OLY // Upcoming: W6 A320, W6 A321, EVA 77W, VS 787-9m AS A320, VS A35K, KLM E190, KLM 738, LS 737
 
Andy33
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:41 pm

Antarius wrote:
Andy33 wrote:
Erebus wrote:
BA has 18 A350-1000 on order, but don't they have another 18 options for it?


BA itself has hardly any options left for anything - just a handful of 787 and A380s left from pre-merger days. It is IAG that holds the options, so they can allocate planes to different fleets if market demand changes without any penalty from the manufacturer, and they have many more than 18 A350 options. From memory it is more like 40 but I don't have my source references with me. All the options, for A320s, A350s, and 787s, that IAG holds don't specify the exact model. That is set at time of conversion to order, and it is IAG, not BA that will place any orders.


Yes, but it isn't like IAG makes decisions in a vacuum. BA is by far the most valuable piece of IAG so while IAG may place the order, BA's needs are definitely a huge part of this order.

Well they aren't going to order something for delivery to BA that BA can't use, obviously. But IAG has gone to considerable effort to standardise flight decks, galleys, lavatories etc on A320, A330 and A350 series planes across the fleet specifically to make it easier to move planes either pre delivery or later in life between fleets as demand changes. They're very proud of this and trumpet it in every report to investors.
It would require a good case to be made to break away from that pattern, but clearly it can be done - that's why IAG itself holds 787 options as well as A350s, that's why the three extra 77Ws were ordered for BA. Don't forget that IAG CEO Willie Walsh (love him or hate him) has personally managed two out of the four major IAG airlines at one time or another, and one of those was BA. So he knows very well the peculiarities of BA's market and what will and won't work.
 
jagraham
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:20 pm

What will BA do for seating on their A35Js?
 
evomutant
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:35 pm

Arion640 wrote:

Frequency and flexibility is the key on the JFK run, it is basically a bus service. 380’s are not the answer.


To a point. But especially ex-JFK departures across BA/AA are so tightly spaced in the evening to effectively nullify any meaningful difference between any given two successive departures. True, the ex-LHR flights are more spread out but even then BA/AA have, for most of the week, a flight leaving at exactly the same time (2.30PM) and within 20 minutes of each other (Just before 8PM)

There is scope to rationalise without compromising capacity or choice if they wanted to.

It is not enough reason on its own to buy more 380's of course.
 
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XAM2175
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:54 pm

evomutant wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
par13del wrote:
consolidate a number of their frequencies into A380's and allow their JV partner AA to handle those pax who require more options

Frequency and flexibility is the key on the JFK run, it is basically a bus service. 380’s are not the answer.


... ex-JFK departures across BA/AA are so tightly spaced in the evening to effectively nullify any meaningful difference between any given two successive departures. ... There is scope to rationalise without compromising capacity or choice if they wanted to


I'd dispute that. Bear in mind it's a route with some of the world's strongest premium demand - hence the Super-High-J configuration on the 744s existing at all - and then have a look at the seats BA are flying about at the moment:

A388        F14 J97 W55 Y303
B744 (++J)  F14 J86 W30 Y145
B77W (4 Cl) F14 J56 W44 Y185
B789        F08 J42 W39 Y127


Replace a single B744 with an A388 and yeah you've picked up 11 extra J and 25 extra W seats, but also a horrifying 158 yield-destroying Y pews.
Consolidate two-for-one and you've still managed to end up with a few more Y seats but you've lost 75 J and 15 W places while also reducing flexibility for the customer. Pretty-much a textbook case of lose-lose.
 
Arion640
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:17 pm

XAM2175 wrote:
evomutant wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Frequency and flexibility is the key on the JFK run, it is basically a bus service. 380’s are not the answer.


... ex-JFK departures across BA/AA are so tightly spaced in the evening to effectively nullify any meaningful difference between any given two successive departures. ... There is scope to rationalise without compromising capacity or choice if they wanted to


I'd dispute that. Bear in mind it's a route with some of the world's strongest premium demand - hence the Super-High-J configuration on the 744s existing at all - and then have a look at the seats BA are flying about at the moment:

A388        F14 J97 W55 Y303
B744 (++J)  F14 J86 W30 Y145
B77W (4 Cl) F14 J56 W44 Y185
B789        F08 J42 W39 Y127


Replace a single B744 with an A388 and yeah you've picked up 11 extra J and 25 extra W seats, but also a horrifying 158 yield-destroying Y pews.
Consolidate two-for-one and you've still managed to end up with a few more Y seats but you've lost 75 J and 15 W places while also reducing flexibility for the customer. Pretty-much a textbook case of lose-lose.


Exactly this :checkmark:

Economy yields are completely trashed over the Atlantic (East Coast to Europe mainly) right now with the respective Joint Ventures competing with Norwegian and Primea also in the mix. Adding A380’s in BA’s current configuration would only make the problem worse.

There’s a reason BA’s 747-400’s have less than 20 more Y seats than their 789’s.
 
BHXLOVER
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Re: Britiah Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:38 pm

andymartin wrote:
So a BA pilot is privy to info regarding future orders? I doubt that, someone having a joke at someone elses expense more like.


Correct In my opinion.

People in a big corporation like to think they know what is going on, but in fact top management treat them like mushrooms.

Feed them bullshit and keep them in the dark.
 
ytz
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:38 pm

Their fleet planning is so strange to me. Given the constraints on LHR, you'd think the 779/78J/789 combo would make the most sense. Yet that 35K order is there with the 788s going to LGW. I would think IAG would send all A350s to IB.

Really curious what they do with EI. Do they get 339s? Or does EI become an all narrow body operators with lots of 321N and 321LR?
 
Arion640
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:50 pm

ytz wrote:
Their fleet planning is so strange to me. Given the constraints on LHR, you'd think the 779/78J/789 combo would make the most sense. Yet that 35K order is there with the 788s going to LGW. I would think IAG would send all A350s to IB.

Really curious what they do with EI. Do they get 339s? Or does EI become an all narrow body operators with lots of 321N and 321LR?


Where have you got the information the 788’s are going to LGW?
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:14 pm

pabloeing wrote:
¿Which is the real range at maximun weight for BA with the B787-10?.....¿Can do LHR-LAX within restrictions?


Hard to know for sure without knowing the configuration, but it's hard to believe any 787-10 would have any trouble on LHR-LAX. A 787-10 should be able to fly roughly 4000 nm still air distance at its very high MZFW (which it will almost never reach in service) and roughly 6000-6500 nm with a full passenger load for a premium airline like BA.
 
ytz
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:21 pm

Arion640 wrote:
ytz wrote:
Their fleet planning is so strange to me. Given the constraints on LHR, you'd think the 779/78J/789 combo would make the most sense. Yet that 35K order is there with the 788s going to LGW. I would think IAG would send all A350s to IB.

Really curious what they do with EI. Do they get 339s? Or does EI become an all narrow body operators with lots of 321N and 321LR?


Where have you got the information the 788’s are going to LGW?


Sorry. I meant that to be my opinion, that the 788s make sense to be based at Gatwick, replacing the 763s there.
 
Ellofiend
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:31 pm

Well, I'm not sure how important fleet commonality is in the IAG world but tbh, I see the B779 as a far more potent order than the 747-8 or a380 as it will be able to sustain the two engine meta that is running the world now and also because of the ability to replace IB's ageing a346's as well as supply the passenger capacity of the BA 744's while occupying CAT9 instead of CAT10 like the A380's and 748 which will allow them to occupy smaller gates and fit into the smaller (non-a388 capable) destinations.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:40 pm

ytz wrote:
Their fleet planning is so strange to me. Given the constraints on LHR, you'd think the 779/78J/789 combo would make the most sense. Yet that 35K order is there with the 788s going to LGW. I would think IAG would send all A350s to IB.

Really curious what they do with EI. Do they get 339s? Or does EI become an all narrow body operators with lots of 321N and 321LR?


If constraints are a factor then why would the A35K not make sense but the 78X and 789 orders do? They're smaller, after all. IAG has placed a fair few orders for A350s for respective airlines so I don't see why it would make much sense to shift them all to IB.

EI has A350s on order and some of their A330s are quite new, so a transition to an all-narrowbody fleet would be very strange and surprising.

Ellofiend wrote:
Well, I'm not sure how important fleet commonality is in the IAG world but tbh, I see the B779 as a far more potent order than the 747-8 or a380 as it will be able to sustain the two engine meta that is running the world now and also because of the ability to replace IB's ageing a346's as well as supply the passenger capacity of the BA 744's while occupying CAT9 instead of CAT10 like the A380's and 748 which will allow them to occupy smaller gates and fit into the smaller (non-a388 capable) destinations.


The A346 doesn't have that long left at IB, if the 777Xs are to come to IB (not that likely though IMO) then the order should really have been placed by now. It seems that IAG is content to replace the A346 with the A359 at IB, the drop in capacity is not actually that much.
 
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TheRedBaron
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:43 pm

They eventually order more A350K and a midsize order of A380, Iberia could use at least 6 to 8 of those and BA could use those to Latin America and the far east. Idon't think they will order 779´s and Airbus will eventually bend its back to accommodate a big order from the consortium.

I´d love BA to order 24 748´s...but that is a pipe dream...

Best Regards

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ytz
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:03 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
ytz wrote:
Their fleet planning is so strange to me. Given the constraints on LHR, you'd think the 779/78J/789 combo would make the most sense. Yet that 35K order is there with the 788s going to LGW. I would think IAG would send all A350s to IB.

Really curious what they do with EI. Do they get 339s? Or does EI become an all narrow body operators with lots of 321N and 321LR?


If constraints are a factor then why would the A35K not make sense but the 78X and 789 orders do? They're smaller, after all. IAG has placed a fair few orders for A350s for respective airlines so I don't see why it would make much sense to shift them all to IB.

EI has A350s on order and some of their A330s are quite new, so a transition to an all-narrowbody fleet would be very strange and surprising.

Ellofiend wrote:
Well, I'm not sure how important fleet commonality is in the IAG world but tbh, I see the B779 as a far more potent order than the 747-8 or a380 as it will be able to sustain the two engine meta that is running the world now and also because of the ability to replace IB's ageing a346's as well as supply the passenger capacity of the BA 744's while occupying CAT9 instead of CAT10 like the A380's and 748 which will allow them to occupy smaller gates and fit into the smaller (non-a388 capable) destinations.


The A346 doesn't have that long left at IB, if the 777Xs are to come to IB (not that likely though IMO) then the order should really have been placed by now. It seems that IAG is content to replace the A346 with the A359 at IB, the drop in capacity is not actually that much.



I am thinking of the groups dynamics here.

The A35K seems strange to me for BA, because I don't see the need to have an airplane between the 78J and the 779 that they are likely to buy. Meanwhile, as you say the, 346 is getting long in the tooth at IB. Surely, the 35K would be a better fit and more readily placed there, no?

With EI, I am thinking their fleet planning changes, now that they are part of IAG. They can shift those A350 orders to IB. And transition to lots of 321Ns and 321LRs and serve a lot of the US East Coast, right up to ORD and Eastern Canada with those airplanes and offer lots of frequencies. Look at places like BOS or ORD. 3 x 321LR daily instead of 2 x 332 allows for some capacity expansion and an increase in frequency. I think EI would also be a great candidate for the 339. The 359 always seemed like too much airplane for them.
Last edited by ytz on Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
smartplane
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:04 pm

Zero incentive to purchase the 777X at present, given launch prices are well off the table, no firm performance data, and slots are more likely to open as a result of cancellations and deferrals.

New WB demand is soft, so unless the group has an unforeseen urgent need, placing an order now is opportune to extract deep discounts.

Or could strategic shareholder QR be looking to shed A380's and / or transfer part of their 777X order (latter would require Boeing approval), perhaps in exchange for IAG A350 options and cash?
 
Mex87
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:08 pm

FORGOT TO QUOTE REPLY # 50, BY pabloeing

But Iberia is all about Airbus. I see the 350K instead of a 777. For increased capacity to some stellar transatlantic routes (MEX, BOG, EZE,etc) I´m sure they´ll order the A350-1000, and for cargo hauling and range the A330/340/350 families have the capacity to cover all of IB´s long haul destinations so far. It´s longest, MAD-NRT, is around 10,800 km and uses A332.

What about BA ordering a moderate amount of A380s and A220s to replace some older A318/19/20s ?
Last edited by Mex87 on Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:26 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:18 pm

ytz wrote:

I am thinking of the groups dynamics here.

The A35K seems strange to me for BA, because I don't see the need to have an airplane between the 78J and the 779 that they are likely to buy. Meanwhile, as you say the, 346 is getting long in the tooth at IB. Surely, the 35K would be a better fit and more readily placed there, no?


BA have a few 77Ws already, with 3 more coming (though effectively as 772 replacements), so I'm not sure why you'd say there's no need for a plane in that size category. I think the A35K will work great as a replacement for the lighter 744 routes, and downsizing can be helpful for an airline that values high yield. If the A35K was really that suited to IB then there's very little that's stopping IAG from upgauging the order. It's quite possible that the A359 will figure into BA's 777 replacement in time so having an A350 variant at BA should hardly be any hindrance if this is the case

With EI, I am thinking their fleet planning changes, now that they are part of IAG. They can shift those A350 orders to IB. And transition to lots of 321Ns and 321LRs and serve a lot of the US East Coast, right up to ORD and Eastern Canada with those airplanes and offer lots of frequencies. Look at places like BOS or ORD. 3 x 321LR daily instead of 2 x 332 allows for some capacity expansion and an increase in frequency. I think EI would also be a great candidate for the 339. The 359 always seemed like too much airplane for them.


EI also serve the West Coast of the USA, so they do need planes with range. The A339 has been mooted for them and you can see why it would make sense, but there's never been any indication of it happening, not even rumours. IAG has placed lots of orders for late-line A330ceos though. I think there's still room for larger planes in EI's network, you can't always up the frequencies in practice.
Last edited by MrHMSH on Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
SonomaFlyer
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:18 pm

pabloeing wrote:
¿Which is the real range at maximun weight for BA with the B787-10?.....¿Can do LHR-LAX within restrictions?


http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=LHR-LAX&MS=wls&DU=nm It's 4,741 nm for this route. Boeing claims a 6,430 nm range. I think there could be a penalty in winter westbound but I recall AA running 763s on the same route which has a shorter range than the 78J.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:30 pm

smartplane wrote:
Zero incentive to purchase the 777X at present, given launch prices are well off the table, no firm performance data, and slots are more likely to open as a result of cancellations and deferrals.

New WB demand is soft, so unless the group has an unforeseen urgent need, placing an order now is opportune to extract deep discounts.


These two sentences contradict each other.

Given the softness of the 777X order book, the potential risk associated with the EY and QR orders, and Mounir's general propensity for getting deals done, I'm sure attractive 777X pricing is available to BA.

And the 779 is likely a better replacement for the High J 744 fleet than the 35K. The question is whether it's better enough to justify adding another type. Pricing is likely part of the answer to that question. I think both the 779 and the 35K have a legitimate chance at this order.

As for IB, I can't imagine why they'd want a 77X. The A350 is just about perfectly suited for their needs, between the capacity of the 35K and the extremely good hot/high performance of the 359.
 
Prost
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:31 am

Well, Etihad slots for 77X and A350s may soon become available. Airbus and Boeing have probably sharpened their pencils to place planes with a blue chip carrier like British Airways.
 
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FlyThiz
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:35 am

This may be a bit of a stretch, but I’m sure if Airbus wanted to they could give significant discounts on some 380s.
Is mayonnaise an instrument?
 
jfk777
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:48 am

zeke wrote:
Big Airways, Big Aircraft


British Airways needs the 777-9 for a simple reason, it is the biggest twin engine plane available which can fly nonstop to any destination except for Sydney. BA needs a big replacement for their 744 fleet with large freight capability. Everyone knows the slot situation at LHR, the 777-9 works for almost every city BA flies to except those needing the A380's capacity. A350 are great airplanes but are they great for BA that needs the capacity of a 777-9 more then the range of an A350. BA has many 7 to 10 hour flights where the 777-9 is optimal. Hoping Willie's visits Seattle.
 
RichardWelling
Posts: 160
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 1:44 am

par13del wrote:
The problem with BA slot restrictions at LHR is that for expansion to the USA they require multiple slots since they are sending a/c to multiple airports, now if they were to upgrade their JFK terminal they could consolidate a number of their frequencies into A380's and allow their JV partner AA to handle those pax who require more options, at least they have an alternative to pax defecting to other carriers.


Its not possible to upgrade T7 for an A380 gate as the alleyway is too narrow. It could be done at T8 if BA wing were to be completed. But the BA corporate customer base loves the shuttle like service that BA provides to JFK.
 
Beatyair
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:09 am

Let us not forget that BA has an existing order in for A350-1000 and B787-10’s. They have not even tried the A350 yet to determine that they would like more.
My guess will more A350-900’s , a few B777-9’s, and some A220’s.
 
Waterbomber
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:44 am

Arion640 wrote:
XAM2175 wrote:
evomutant wrote:

... ex-JFK departures across BA/AA are so tightly spaced in the evening to effectively nullify any meaningful difference between any given two successive departures. ... There is scope to rationalise without compromising capacity or choice if they wanted to


I'd dispute that. Bear in mind it's a route with some of the world's strongest premium demand - hence the Super-High-J configuration on the 744s existing at all - and then have a look at the seats BA are flying about at the moment:

A388        F14 J97 W55 Y303
B744 (++J)  F14 J86 W30 Y145
B77W (4 Cl) F14 J56 W44 Y185
B789        F08 J42 W39 Y127


Replace a single B744 with an A388 and yeah you've picked up 11 extra J and 25 extra W seats, but also a horrifying 158 yield-destroying Y pews.
Consolidate two-for-one and you've still managed to end up with a few more Y seats but you've lost 75 J and 15 W places while also reducing flexibility for the customer. Pretty-much a textbook case of lose-lose.


Exactly this :checkmark:

Economy yields are completely trashed over the Atlantic (East Coast to Europe mainly) right now with the respective Joint Ventures competing with Norwegian and Primea also in the mix. Adding A380’s in BA’s current configuration would only make the problem worse.

There’s a reason BA’s 747-400’s have less than 20 more Y seats than their 789’s.


Mmmm you guys are looking at this the wrong way.
Aircraft can be configured in many different ways and the A380 is probably the most flexible aircraft in those regards.
Just because BA has a certain configuration on their current A380's, it doesn't have to be the same for a JFK shuttle. They can keep the same amouny of Y seats and put more J and F compared to the B744's. They don't even have to make an effort to sell those additional premium seats, the A380 effect will sell them for them.
 
Arion640
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:48 am

Waterbomber wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
XAM2175 wrote:

I'd dispute that. Bear in mind it's a route with some of the world's strongest premium demand - hence the Super-High-J configuration on the 744s existing at all - and then have a look at the seats BA are flying about at the moment:

A388        F14 J97 W55 Y303
B744 (++J)  F14 J86 W30 Y145
B77W (4 Cl) F14 J56 W44 Y185
B789        F08 J42 W39 Y127


Replace a single B744 with an A388 and yeah you've picked up 11 extra J and 25 extra W seats, but also a horrifying 158 yield-destroying Y pews.
Consolidate two-for-one and you've still managed to end up with a few more Y seats but you've lost 75 J and 15 W places while also reducing flexibility for the customer. Pretty-much a textbook case of lose-lose.


Exactly this :checkmark:

Economy yields are completely trashed over the Atlantic (East Coast to Europe mainly) right now with the respective Joint Ventures competing with Norwegian and Primea also in the mix. Adding A380’s in BA’s current configuration would only make the problem worse.

There’s a reason BA’s 747-400’s have less than 20 more Y seats than their 789’s.


Mmmm you guys are looking at this the wrong way.
Aircraft can be configured in many different ways and the A380 is probably the most flexible aircraft in those regards.
Just because BA has a certain configuration on their current A380's, it doesn't have to be the same for a JFK shuttle. They can keep the same amouny of Y seats and put more J and F compared to the B744's. They don't even have to make an effort to sell those additional premium seats, the A380 effect will sell them for them.


Course they can reconfigure.

But they won’t be used on the JFK in the medium term as they are the wrong configuration, but more importantly, Terminal 7 is nowhere near equipped to handle the A380.
 
LupineChemist
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Re: Britiah Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:24 am

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
aviationaware wrote:
ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
I'm curious how confident their fleet planning group can be given the lack of any idea of what the post Brexit environment will look like. Smaller orders sure, but a big order suggests you have some confidence of how things will look.


No professional in his right mind is falling for this Brexit panic mongering.


You're the one that's bringing up panic. As of this moment there is no aviation agreement between the UK and EU. Until there is planners will have to account for any situation, that's only professional.


As of yesterday, HM Government is officially advising private businesses to prepare for no deal. I would say things are uncertain is hardly panic mongering at that.
 
WIederling
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Re: Britiah Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:29 am

aviationaware wrote:
WIederling wrote:
greg85 wrote:

BA are not the UK’s largest airline, .. .


Which one would that be then?


Easyjet has been larger then BA for quite a while now.


looking at BA or IAG ( what I found is that Easyjet has more passengers but less passenger miles and less revenue ?)
Murphy is an optimist
 
george77300
Topic Author
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Re: Britiah Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:47 am

WIederling wrote:
aviationaware wrote:
WIederling wrote:

Which one would that be then?


Easyjet has been larger then BA for quite a while now.


looking at BA or IAG ( what I found is that Easyjet has more passengers but less passenger miles and less revenue ?)


Less passenger miles because everyone is a few hour hop in Europe and not any long haul which BA does a lot. Because BA is premium carrier and long haul the revenue per passenger will be much higher. That makes complete sense
 
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BawliBooch
Posts: 1441
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:29 am

Is the 77X really needed for the routes BA intends to put them on?

A mix of A35x is really all they need.

It will be a group order IMO - buying whatever is in the interests of the IAG, not just BA standalone.
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jfk777
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:46 am

BawliBooch wrote:
Is the 77X really needed for the routes BA intends to put them on?

A mix of A35x is really all they need.

It will be a group order IMO - buying whatever is in the interests of the IAG, not just BA standalone.


BA is the main intercontinental airline with flights to all corner of the world. IB is obviously a Latin specialist and Aer Lingus flies to both coasts of America but sadly not to Asia yet. BA's long haul requirements are much more varied then IB or Aer's. A330 and A350 work the Spanish and Irish airlines.

BA needs everything from a 787-8 to the A380. BA needs 777-9 because the days when it could order 25 77W may have passed, if they haven't and Boeing is willing to make a deal maybe that should be explored.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:47 am

jfk777 wrote:
zeke wrote:
Big Airways, Big Aircraft


British Airways needs the 777-9 for a simple reason, it is the biggest twin engine plane available which can fly nonstop to any destination except for Sydney. BA needs a big replacement for their 744 fleet with large freight capability. Everyone knows the slot situation at LHR, the 777-9 works for almost every city BA flies to except those needing the A380's capacity. A350 are great airplanes but are they great for BA that needs the capacity of a 777-9 more then the range of an A350. BA has many 7 to 10 hour flights where the 777-9 is optimal. Hoping Willie's visits Seattle.


What makes you say the 779 is optimal for 7-10 hour flights? It's a pretty capable plane, and to me it seems optimised for longer flights, maybe 13 hours and above. I'm not sure the A35K is that much more capable.

Don't forget that most of BA's 744s already have designated replacements, someone estimated above that it's only 12. They've shown that they're willing to downsize so it's hardly out of the question that they simply top up with an aircraft that they are already getting.
 
skipness1E
Posts: 4784
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:18 am

Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:47 am

ytz wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
ytz wrote:
Their fleet planning is so strange to me. Given the constraints on LHR, you'd think the 779/78J/789 combo would make the most sense. Yet that 35K order is there with the 788s going to LGW. I would think IAG would send all A350s to IB.

Really curious what they do with EI. Do they get 339s? Or does EI become an all narrow body operators with lots of 321N and 321LR?


Where have you got the information the 788’s are going to LGW?


Sorry. I meant that to be my opinion, that the 788s make sense to be based at Gatwick, replacing the 763s there.

BA haven’t had 767s at Gatwick since the turn of the century......amazes me how people can write pages of opinion and still be so unfamiliar with the business.
 
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Carlos01
Posts: 171
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:24 am

Of course one thing to consider is then the high altitude, long distance, cargo heavy destinations. Like currently BA flies 2 times daily LHR-JNB, one flight with a 744, the other with A380. That's hardly a coincidence that both are 4-engined. What about those in the future? Could the 777X handle the route?
 
BA777FO
Posts: 571
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Re: Britiah Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 11:49 am

aviationaware wrote:
"Confirmation". Please. Pilots are involved in fleet planning the same way turkeys are involved in thanksgiving dinner planning.


Pilots play a big role, certainly these days and certainly at BA - remember when BA had a load of 747-400s they couldn't fly because they hadn't struck contractual agreements with the pilots? Delta made similar mistakes with their 777 order. Airlines are learning from those mistakes.

BA has involved BALPA in the conversations. Those details are still confidential but what is known publicly is that a fairly significant widebody order is imminent within the next 6 months or so. BA has put out a tender (or if you're pedantic IAG has on BA's behalf) and the 777X, 787s, A350s are all in the mix. It could be a large order for one or a mix of the above. The A380 is not being considered as part of this order.
 
george77300
Topic Author
Posts: 1131
Joined: Sat May 06, 2017 8:33 pm

Re: Britiah Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:07 pm

BA777FO wrote:
aviationaware wrote:
"Confirmation". Please. Pilots are involved in fleet planning the same way turkeys are involved in thanksgiving dinner planning.


Pilots play a big role, certainly these days and certainly at BA - remember when BA had a load of 747-400s they couldn't fly because they hadn't struck contractual agreements with the pilots? Delta made similar mistakes with their 777 order. Airlines are learning from those mistakes.

BA has involved BALPA in the conversations. Those details are still confidential but what is known publicly is that a fairly significant widebody order is imminent within the next 6 months or so. BA has put out a tender (or if you're pedantic IAG has on BA's behalf) and the 777X, 787s, A350s are all in the mix. It could be a large order for one or a mix of the above. The A380 is not being considered as part of this order.


Here is some more "Confirmation". This time from a different BA pilot I have to assume from the username "BA777FO" :D

It looks like it is happening and now a question of when and what the split of models will be.
 
Arion640
Posts: 3058
Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: Britiah Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:06 pm

george77300 wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
aviationaware wrote:
"Confirmation". Please. Pilots are involved in fleet planning the same way turkeys are involved in thanksgiving dinner planning.


Pilots play a big role, certainly these days and certainly at BA - remember when BA had a load of 747-400s they couldn't fly because they hadn't struck contractual agreements with the pilots? Delta made similar mistakes with their 777 order. Airlines are learning from those mistakes.

BA has involved BALPA in the conversations. Those details are still confidential but what is known publicly is that a fairly significant widebody order is imminent within the next 6 months or so. BA has put out a tender (or if you're pedantic IAG has on BA's behalf) and the 777X, 787s, A350s are all in the mix. It could be a large order for one or a mix of the above. The A380 is not being considered as part of this order.


Here is some more "Confirmation". This time from a different BA pilot I have to assume from the username "BA777FO" :D

It looks like it is happening and now a question of when and what the split of models will be.


You seem to be getting very excited on both flyertalk and on here!
 
xwb777
Posts: 808
Joined: Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:13 pm

Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:16 pm

If the Etihad A350 cancellation is true, would BA take the delivery slots?
 
george77300
Topic Author
Posts: 1131
Joined: Sat May 06, 2017 8:33 pm

Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:26 pm

xwb777 wrote:
If the Etihad A350 cancellation is true, would BA take the delivery slots?


Airbus will want to fill those slots quickly especially as some are for as early as next year. 62 A350 is a lot to cancel and a real blow to Airbus but if BA wanted more, or theirs sooner I'd imagine they may take up some. Lots of airlines are bound to take planes a bit early if this is true unless another carrier does a large order.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 23950
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:34 pm

pabloeing wrote:
¿Which is the real range at maximun weight for BA with the B787-10?.....¿Can do LHR-LAX within restrictions?

It all depends on how BA configures the aircraft and how you define "within restrictions".

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VSMUT
Posts: 4247
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:00 pm

Carlos01 wrote:
Of course one thing to consider is then the high altitude, long distance, cargo heavy destinations. Like currently BA flies 2 times daily LHR-JNB, one flight with a 744, the other with A380. That's hardly a coincidence that both are 4-engined. What about those in the future? Could the 777X handle the route?


It probably could, but if you just need something that route only, then buying a pair of A380s (used or new) will be cheaper than introducing a new type to the fleet. Heck, replacing 1 747 is with 2 787s or A350s will probably be cheaper too.
With the political direction South Africa is taking, going for a unique Johannesburg-capable airliner is probably not the wisest thing to do either.


jfk777 wrote:
BA needs 777-9 because the days when it could order 25 77W may have passed, if they haven't and Boeing is willing to make a deal maybe that should be explored.


BA can still get 25 777-300ER category aircraft. It is known as the A350-1000, and BA already has orders for 18 of them.


jfk777 wrote:
British Airways needs the 777-9 for a simple reason, it is the biggest twin engine plane available which can fly nonstop to any destination except for Sydney.


As has been proven time after time, the added capability comes at a significant cost. By far the majority of BAs routes can be operated at much lower cost by 787s and A350s. And why the focus on large size? Qantas does the Perth - London route with a 787-9, of which BA has plenty already.


jfk777 wrote:
BA needs a big replacement for their 744 fleet with large freight capability.


They only have 6 to 12 747-400s unaccounted for in the replacement program.


jfk777 wrote:
A350 are great airplanes but are they great for BA that needs the capacity of a 777-9 more then the range of an A350. BA has many 7 to 10 hour flights where the 777-9 is optimal. Hoping Willie's visits Seattle.


I think you got something mixed up there. The 777-9 is the ULR optimized aircraft here, not the A350 and 787. Your point about 7 to 10 hour flights only strengthens the argument against the 777-9.
 
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XAM2175
Posts: 1156
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:06 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
... Aircraft can be configured in many different ways and the A380 is probably the most flexible aircraft in those regards.
Just because BA has a certain configuration on their current A380's, it doesn't have to be the same for a JFK shuttle. They can keep the same amouny of Y seats and put more J and F compared to the B744's.
Course they can reconfigure. But they won’t be used on the JFK in the medium term as they are the wrong configuration, but more importantly, Terminal 7 is nowhere near equipped to handle the A380.


Spot-on. The A380 fills an important niche for BA in its present configuration where the Y capacity is actually useful - South Africa, Asia, etc - and a reconfiguration to increase premium capacity reduces the useful of such aircraft to those markets.

Considering that BA have already given a fairly-solid indication that they're unlikely to take new A380s even just on price grounds, and the odds of them getting a screaming deal from Airbus anytime soon are pretty slim, the options are either to subfleet the existing aircraft or try to play the used market with all the fun and games that entails.

Oh yeah - has anybody mentioned yet that they'd need to move terminals at JFK to use A380s regardless of how they're sourced or configured? :roll:

I know you have a massive fetish for the things - IIRC you were suggesting that QF could be using them on UK-Australia non-stops right now - but this is not the place for them.

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