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LockheedBBD
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Re: Britiah Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:14 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Noshow wrote:
So neither Airbus nor RR engine order from the UK's biggest airline? They build the buswings too.


Yet UA/AA/DL/AS all operate Airbus fleets with Boeing building planes in their home countries...


I remember the old American saying, "if it ain't Boeing I ain't going".


I believe the old British saying is, "if it is a Boeing, I will not be going." :lol:
 
Bongodog1964
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Re: Britiah Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:56 pm

george77300 wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
aviationaware wrote:
"Confirmation". Please. Pilots are involved in fleet planning the same way turkeys are involved in thanksgiving dinner planning.


Pilots play a big role, certainly these days and certainly at BA - remember when BA had a load of 747-400s they couldn't fly because they hadn't struck contractual agreements with the pilots? Delta made similar mistakes with their 777 order. Airlines are learning from those mistakes.

BA has involved BALPA in the conversations. Those details are still confidential but what is known publicly is that a fairly significant widebody order is imminent within the next 6 months or so. BA has put out a tender (or if you're pedantic IAG has on BA's behalf) and the 777X, 787s, A350s are all in the mix. It could be a large order for one or a mix of the above. The A380 is not being considered as part of this order.


Here is some more "Confirmation". This time from a different BA pilot I have to assume from the username "BA777FO" :D

It looks like it is happening and now a question of when and what the split of models will be.


I could register as IAGCEO but I wouldn't be :lol: :lol:
 
musman9853
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Re: Britiah Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 10:07 pm

LupineChemist wrote:
ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
aviationaware wrote:

No professional in his right mind is falling for this Brexit panic mongering.


You're the one that's bringing up panic. As of this moment there is no aviation agreement between the UK and EU. Until there is planners will have to account for any situation, that's only professional.


As of yesterday, HM Government is officially advising private businesses to prepare for no deal. I would say things are uncertain is hardly panic mongering at that.



200 days left with basically no details worked out so far...
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
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TheRedBaron
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 10:36 pm

xwb777 wrote:
If the Etihad A350 cancellation is true, would BA take the delivery slots?



Never underestimate the power of availability...

TRB
The best seat in a Plane is the Jumpseat.
 
Waterbomber
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 10:44 pm

XAM2175 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
... Aircraft can be configured in many different ways and the A380 is probably the most flexible aircraft in those regards.
Just because BA has a certain configuration on their current A380's, it doesn't have to be the same for a JFK shuttle. They can keep the same amouny of Y seats and put more J and F compared to the B744's.
Course they can reconfigure. But they won’t be used on the JFK in the medium term as they are the wrong configuration, but more importantly, Terminal 7 is nowhere near equipped to handle the A380.


Spot-on. The A380 fills an important niche for BA in its present configuration where the Y capacity is actually useful - South Africa, Asia, etc - and a reconfiguration to increase premium capacity reduces the useful of such aircraft to those markets.

Considering that BA have already given a fairly-solid indication that they're unlikely to take new A380s even just on price grounds, and the odds of them getting a screaming deal from Airbus anytime soon are pretty slim, the options are either to subfleet the existing aircraft or try to play the used market with all the fun and games that entails.

Oh yeah - has anybody mentioned yet that they'd need to move terminals at JFK to use A380s regardless of how they're sourced or configured? :roll:

I know you have a massive fetish for the things - IIRC you were suggesting that QF could be using them on UK-Australia non-stops right now - but this is not the place for them.


I don't have a particular fetish for any aircraft, but I have a fetish for good business sense and for the development of comfort and safety.
Replacing a B744 by anything smaller makes sense in some cases but in a context of growing global passenger traffic, it doesn't make sense.
The same way it doesn't make sense to replace a 1-stop A380 service by a 1-stop B789 service.

What you see here, mark these words, is a hunt for short-term profits. Many airline CEO's these days are taking profits on risks taken by their predecessors.
Those risks are investments that are paying off today.
However, the investments need to be maintained.

We see many airlines making huge profits and giving dividend pay-outs with growing traffic while reducing capacity in their future fleet planning.
Talk about non-sense.

You can't place A380's at an airline like IB.
But BA should invest in more A380's because they have a mega hub to support them and they need to protect, nay, grow their market share.
 
TheGeordielad
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 10:54 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
XAM2175 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Course they can reconfigure. But they won’t be used on the JFK in the medium term as they are the wrong configuration, but more importantly, Terminal 7 is nowhere near equipped to handle the A380.


Spot-on. The A380 fills an important niche for BA in its present configuration where the Y capacity is actually useful - South Africa, Asia, etc - and a reconfiguration to increase premium capacity reduces the useful of such aircraft to those markets.

Considering that BA have already given a fairly-solid indication that they're unlikely to take new A380s even just on price grounds, and the odds of them getting a screaming deal from Airbus anytime soon are pretty slim, the options are either to subfleet the existing aircraft or try to play the used market with all the fun and games that entails.

Oh yeah - has anybody mentioned yet that they'd need to move terminals at JFK to use A380s regardless of how they're sourced or configured? :roll:

I know you have a massive fetish for the things - IIRC you were suggesting that QF could be using them on UK-Australia non-stops right now - but this is not the place for them.


I don't have a particular fetish for any aircraft, but I have a fetish for good business sense and for the development of comfort and safety.
Replacing a B744 by anything smaller makes sense in some cases but in a context of growing global passenger traffic, it doesn't make sense.
The same way it doesn't make sense to replace a 1-stop A380 service by a 1-stop B789 service.

What you see here, mark these words, is a hunt for short-term profits. Many airline CEO's these days are taking profits on risks taken by their predecessors.
Those risks are investments that are paying off today.
However, the investments need to be maintained.

We see many airlines making huge profits and giving dividend pay-outs with growing traffic while reducing capacity in their future fleet planning.
Talk about non-sense.

You can't place A380's at an airline like IB.
But BA should invest in more A380's because they have a mega hub to support them and they need to protect, nay, grow their market share.

BA don’t have to get more A380s. The a380 has 469 seats (14F/97B/55P/303E) while the 747s have 275 (14F/86B/30P/145E) And 347 (14F/52B/36P/245E) seats this shows that there would be a sizeable increase of capacity that some routes won’t have the demand/market for therefore would be most likely unprofitable for BA to run. An example is JFK which is served a few times a day (not sure how many times) by the 747, this is a route that even though its popular the reason why it’s popular is not only have BA got the right aircraft for the market but because it’s served frequently passengers have more flights and times to choose from to match what better suits them. I believe it’s mentioned on another post but some Airport terminals can’t handle a380 such as JFK T7 as a380 because it is wide it won’t fit in the stand and because ba operate many flights they can’t just change terminal because there isn’t much spare capacity left at JFK
 
Galwayman
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 11:24 pm

I wish BA would get proper seats for their A380s instead of using the same specs as their 747s ... such a waste of space and customer last proposition ... it’s not a quality experience like it is on EK
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Fri Aug 24, 2018 11:44 pm

Again the A380 is being used on less premium markets, so developing a flagship premium product for it doesn't make sense unless more are to be ordered.

The Club World product is why the 777X may be attractive. It can fit a product similar to that in the 747 more easily than the A350 can. A small fleet of 15 or so 777-9 with 100 or more J seats, extending through more than half the cabin length, could very effectively replace the Hi J 744 configuration on JFK and the big Middle East markets.
 
Waterbomber
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sat Aug 25, 2018 12:24 am

TheGeordielad wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
XAM2175 wrote:

Spot-on. The A380 fills an important niche for BA in its present configuration where the Y capacity is actually useful - South Africa, Asia, etc - and a reconfiguration to increase premium capacity reduces the useful of such aircraft to those markets.

Considering that BA have already given a fairly-solid indication that they're unlikely to take new A380s even just on price grounds, and the odds of them getting a screaming deal from Airbus anytime soon are pretty slim, the options are either to subfleet the existing aircraft or try to play the used market with all the fun and games that entails.

Oh yeah - has anybody mentioned yet that they'd need to move terminals at JFK to use A380s regardless of how they're sourced or configured? :roll:

I know you have a massive fetish for the things - IIRC you were suggesting that QF could be using them on UK-Australia non-stops right now - but this is not the place for them.


I don't have a particular fetish for any aircraft, but I have a fetish for good business sense and for the development of comfort and safety.
Replacing a B744 by anything smaller makes sense in some cases but in a context of growing global passenger traffic, it doesn't make sense.
The same way it doesn't make sense to replace a 1-stop A380 service by a 1-stop B789 service.

What you see here, mark these words, is a hunt for short-term profits. Many airline CEO's these days are taking profits on risks taken by their predecessors.
Those risks are investments that are paying off today.
However, the investments need to be maintained.

We see many airlines making huge profits and giving dividend pay-outs with growing traffic while reducing capacity in their future fleet planning.
Talk about non-sense.

You can't place A380's at an airline like IB.
But BA should invest in more A380's because they have a mega hub to support them and they need to protect, nay, grow their market share.

BA don’t have to get more A380s. The a380 has 469 seats (14F/97B/55P/303E) while the 747s have 275 (14F/86B/30P/145E) And 347 (14F/52B/36P/245E) seats this shows that there would be a sizeable increase of capacity that some routes won’t have the demand/market for therefore would be most likely unprofitable for BA to run. An example is JFK which is served a few times a day (not sure how many times) by the 747, this is a route that even though its popular the reason why it’s popular is not only have BA got the right aircraft for the market but because it’s served frequently passengers have more flights and times to choose from to match what better suits them. I believe it’s mentioned on another post but some Airport terminals can’t handle a380 such as JFK T7 as a380 because it is wide it won’t fit in the stand and because ba operate many flights they can’t just change terminal because there isn’t much spare capacity left at JFK


Again, the A380's current configuration with BA reflects its current needs. If they use it for JFK, it's likely that the A380 would be more premium heavy.
The jump in seat counts won't be that dramatic.
BA doesn't have a monopoly on this route, so it does matter that they offer flagship service. Remember, there are other options such as DL, VS, AA, but also UA and DY. Jetblue is likely to join the battle at some point.

About the T7 issues, aren't there a pair of ex-UA gates that could be turned into an A380 gate? One gate may not be sufficient, but it's a start.
 
BA777FO
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Re: Britiah Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sat Aug 25, 2018 1:12 am

Bongodog1964 wrote:
george77300 wrote:
BA777FO wrote:

Pilots play a big role, certainly these days and certainly at BA - remember when BA had a load of 747-400s they couldn't fly because they hadn't struck contractual agreements with the pilots? Delta made similar mistakes with their 777 order. Airlines are learning from those mistakes.

BA has involved BALPA in the conversations. Those details are still confidential but what is known publicly is that a fairly significant widebody order is imminent within the next 6 months or so. BA has put out a tender (or if you're pedantic IAG has on BA's behalf) and the 777X, 787s, A350s are all in the mix. It could be a large order for one or a mix of the above. The A380 is not being considered as part of this order.


Here is some more "Confirmation". This time from a different BA pilot I have to assume from the username "BA777FO" :D

It looks like it is happening and now a question of when and what the split of models will be.


I could register as IAGCEO but I wouldn't be :lol: :lol:


I can quote you from Bidline Rules if you want, there won’t be many fakers out there that can do that for you ;)

Anyway, back to the thread, order within 6 months and some updates on timings for the 777 reconfiguration too. The last of the Gatwick GE-engined 777s will be completed next year before work starts on the RR 777s. BALPA is being involved in the overhead rest facility for pilots too to replace the box at the back of First. So the company does, rightly, involve its pilots. However the order goes, the frames are desperately needed, there are a load of Monarch slots that need filling at Gatwick so not only will new aircraft replace some of the 747s there’ll be some to help free up 777s to move to LGW too.
 
Andy33
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:06 am

ytz wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
ytz wrote:
Their fleet planning is so strange to me. Given the constraints on LHR, you'd think the 779/78J/789 combo would make the most sense. Yet that 35K order is there with the 788s going to LGW. I would think IAG would send all A350s to IB.

Really curious what they do with EI. Do they get 339s? Or does EI become an all narrow body operators with lots of 321N and 321LR?


Where have you got the information the 788’s are going to LGW?


Sorry. I meant that to be my opinion, that the 788s make sense to be based at Gatwick, replacing the 763s there.


But there are no BA 763s at Gatwick, and there have been none there for many years. The Gatwick long haul fleet is entirely 772ER and the shorthaul fleet A319/A320. Additionally there are only 5 763s left in the fleet altogether, based at LHR, they're all in short-haul configuration, and they'll be all gone by December
 
p277
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Re: Britiah Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:06 am

BA777FO wrote:
BALPA is being involved in the overhead rest facility for pilots too to replace the box at the back of First. So the company does, rightly, involve its pilots. However the order goes, the frames are desperately needed, there are a load of Monarch slots that need filling at Gatwick so not only will new aircraft replace some of the 747s there’ll be some to help free up 777s to move to LGW too.


At last! Hope that’s true! That “wendy house” is awful for in-flight rest...the number of times I’ve had to endure pax/crew using the adjacent loo despite the big curtains saying “Flight Crew Only” :banghead:

And any rumours on new LGW destinations!?? Phuket perhaps? Vietnam? :bigthumbsup:

On aircraft orders: didn’t know Flight Ops/pilots were somehow involved, at least not since F/Ops lost their seat on the BA board (now IAG board I guess..?!). However I’m told we’re certainly involved in some of the aircraft spec. E.g. the upcoming A350 ofcr.
There are a number of pilots though (just as any other IAG employee might) who have connections a long long way up the food chain. One had informed me of IKA being under review for cancellation well before its announcement from Network Planning (good thing, I hated the trip! Once was more than enough!). Hence it wouldn’t surprise me if a few had good knowledge of what type of aircraft may be on order soon.

And rumour is the 787-10 is coming without ofcr..?!?? Really?? Are we making THAT mistake AGAIN..?!??
 
chonetsao
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:25 am

I am pretty sure B744s on JFK run (the so called high-J) will be replaced by converted B777-200ER in high-J config rather than A380 or new aircraft. BA's JFK strategy is high frequency plus high percentage of J seats. A converted B777-200ER in 14F/76J/24W/98Y (total 212 seats VS B744's 275 seats in 14F/86J/30W/145Y) could do the job. And the CASM would be low because B777-200ER fleet would be paid off by then. Reduced Y load would not worry BA slightest as they are betting on high number of J sales and JFK Originated or Terminated pax.
 
BA777FO
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:31 am

The 787-10s are coming with flight crew overhead rest, but not for cabin crew. Apparently they'll only be used on shorter longhaul routes (heard that with the 777, huh?!) Initial routes are apparently being finalised but I'd guess at something like BOS/JFK/IAD initially. I joke it'd be perfect for LOS, RUH, ABV, DXB and TLV!

The news of the 777-300ER order was doing the rounds several weeks before it was announced - Willie told a crew on the way to SYD. They'll be welcome additions. Haven't flown an A-market one in over a year now though!

Director of F/Ops is no longer on the board but I think given past and recent manpower planning issues there is involvement through the COO and BALPA seem to be kept in the loop due to OFCR details etc.

You didn't like the IKA trip? 2 free breakfasts generally keep most pilots happy! Not sure about LGW just yet, I have no faith in the Bogota crewmour, sounds an odd one for Gatwick. I think the reconfig plan for 2019 was just for the 3 4-class 777s which will stay 4-class, but just go 10 abreast down the back, only adds an extra 10 or 11 seats. Club and WT+ gets a refresh though. By all accounts LIM & SJO have been roaring successes so U
I think they'll be looking for more niche, underserved markets rather adding something like LAX or ORD from LGW. Heard Phuket for years, it's never come to anything! Havana and Montego Bay coming back are other rumours but not sure there's enough premium traffic to justify them. Hopefully November will have some announcements on that front as I believe that's when the summer slot profile is finalised.
 
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TheLion
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Re: Britiah Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:59 am

p277 wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
BALPA is being involved in the overhead rest facility for pilots too to replace the box at the back of First. So the company does, rightly, involve its pilots. However the order goes, the frames are desperately needed, there are a load of Monarch slots that need filling at Gatwick so not only will new aircraft replace some of the 747s there’ll be some to help free up 777s to move to LGW too.


At last! Hope that’s true! That “wendy house” is awful for in-flight rest...the number of times I’ve had to endure pax/crew using the adjacent loo despite the big curtains saying “Flight Crew Only” :banghead:

And any rumours on new LGW destinations!?? Phuket perhaps? Vietnam? :bigthumbsup:

On aircraft orders: didn’t know Flight Ops/pilots were somehow involved, at least not since F/Ops lost their seat on the BA board (now IAG board I guess..?!). However I’m told we’re certainly involved in some of the aircraft spec. E.g. the upcoming A350 ofcr.
There are a number of pilots though (just as any other IAG employee might) who have connections a long long way up the food chain. One had informed me of IKA being under review for cancellation well before its announcement from Network Planning (good thing, I hated the trip! Once was more than enough!). Hence it wouldn’t surprise me if a few had good knowledge of what type of aircraft may be on order soon.

And rumour is the 787-10 is coming without ofcr..?!?? Really?? Are we making THAT mistake AGAIN..?!??


Interesting info, thanks. What’s “ofcr” though?
 
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glideslope
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Re: Britiah Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sat Aug 25, 2018 11:21 am

pabloeing wrote:
B777-9X


Agreed. I don't see the 359 being in this order.
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
BA777FO
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Re: Britiah Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sat Aug 25, 2018 11:22 am

TheLion wrote:
Interesting info, thanks. What’s “ofcr” though?


Overhead Flight Crew Rest. I believe it comes as standard fit on the 787-10, but BA is choosing not to fit the OHAR - Overhead Attendants' rest, for cabin crew, as it apparently won't be required for the length of flights the aircraft will do and will still comply with cabin crew rest requirements.
 
WIederling
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Re: Britiah Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sat Aug 25, 2018 11:31 am

TheLion wrote:
What’s “ofcr” though?


"Overhead Flight Crew Rest" ??
or just "officer" ?
Murphy is an optimist
 
smartplane
Posts: 1024
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sat Aug 25, 2018 11:50 am

seabosdca wrote:
smartplane wrote:
Zero incentive to purchase the 777X at present, given launch prices are well off the table, no firm performance data, and slots are more likely to open as a result of cancellations and deferrals.

New WB demand is soft, so unless the group has an unforeseen urgent need, placing an order now is opportune to extract deep discounts.


These two sentences contradict each other.

Apologies for lack of clarity. First sentence refers only to the 777X, second to the balance of WB model options.

Second scenario is unlikely, unless IAG are planning to establish a new brand for example specialising in long distance point to point along the lines of QF's PER-LHR, or merging two existing brands and updating the fleet.
Last edited by smartplane on Sat Aug 25, 2018 11:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
BA777FO
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sat Aug 25, 2018 11:51 am

In this context flight crew = pilots. OHAR - attendants' rest = just for cabin crew.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sat Aug 25, 2018 3:50 pm

IF Airbus launches a 350-1000 ULR, that could the base for a stretch with similar capabilty to the standard -1000.

What are the chances of a launch order for the stretch from IAG for BA?
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sat Aug 25, 2018 7:51 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
IF Airbus launches a 350-1000 ULR, that could the base for a stretch with similar capabilty to the standard -1000.

What are the chances of a launch order for the stretch from IAG for BA?


Australia is the only place they would need such a bird and that’s if it could even do SYD, they have said they have no current plans to do non stop Australia, things change but it seems fairly unlikely at this stage.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sat Aug 25, 2018 7:56 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
IF Airbus launches a 350-1000 ULR, that could the base for a stretch with similar capabilty to the standard -1000.

What are the chances of a launch order for the stretch from IAG for BA?


Australia is the only place they would need such a bird and that’s if it could even do SYD, they have said they have no current plans to do non stop Australia, things change but it seems fairly unlikely at this stage.


I think JF is asking what are the changes of IAG being the launch customer for the rumored A350-1100/2000. A simple stretch of the A350-1000URL.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:20 pm

Dutchy wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
IF Airbus launches a 350-1000 ULR, that could the base for a stretch with similar capabilty to the standard -1000.

What are the chances of a launch order for the stretch from IAG for BA?


Australia is the only place they would need such a bird and that’s if it could even do SYD, they have said they have no current plans to do non stop Australia, things change but it seems fairly unlikely at this stage.


I think JF is asking what are the changes of IAG being the launch customer for the rumored A350-1100/2000. A simple stretch of the A350-1000URL.


Ah right. BA once they order a replacement for the last 744’s might be covered in that catagory? Which won’t be a stretch A350 as it won’t be launched by 2024.

Then onto a 77E replacement after that.
 
BA777FO
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:04 pm

This upcoming order is meant to replace the remaining 747s but also some of the early 777IGWs. It's out to tender, by IAG, driven mainly but not necessarily exclusively, as a commercial need driven by BA.

IAG has cleverly got a mix of A350s and 787s on order, it'll be able to drive a hard bargain with both manufacturers to get the best possible deal. It could be an order for one type, several types or several types from both manufacturers.
 
speedbird52
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sat Aug 25, 2018 11:22 pm

BA have slated the Super HI-J 744 fleet for 2024 retirement. This is probably the time they would be making an order. With a new direct aisle Club World seat planned I cannot see BA ordering a significantly smaller airplane unless they are prepared to give up some seats. The only two viable aircraft for that job are the 748 and 779, narrowing it down to one realistic option. If I was a gambling man I would bet on an order for at least 12 779
 
airzona11
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sat Aug 25, 2018 11:40 pm

Waterbomber wrote:

I don't have a particular fetish for any aircraft, but I have a fetish for good business sense and for the development of comfort and safety.
Replacing a B744 by anything smaller makes sense in some cases but in a context of growing global passenger traffic, it doesn't make sense.
The same way it doesn't make sense to replace a 1-stop A380 service by a 1-stop B789 service.

What you see here, mark these words, is a hunt for short-term profits. Many airline CEO's these days are taking profits on risks taken by their predecessors.
Those risks are investments that are paying off today.
However, the investments need to be maintained.

We see many airlines making huge profits and giving dividend pay-outs with growing traffic while reducing capacity in their future fleet planning.
Talk about non-sense.

You can't place A380's at an airline like IB.
But BA should invest in more A380's because they have a mega hub to support them and they need to protect, nay, grow their market share.


Or, was the nonsense airlines in the past chasing capacity at the expense of yield? Airlines are making money because they are focused on yield. It is not in the financial interest of BA to throw A380s on the LHR-NYC sectors. If it was, the A380 has been available and they would have ordered it. Far too many economy seats. BA and all airlines are focused on optimizing for the higher yielding clients. Market share is arbitrary. Market share of F/J/Y+ passengers matters far more than overall market share. That is why it makes great sense to replace a 1-stop A380 with a 1-stop 789, if they are shedding trash yield Y class seats in the process.
 
Waterbomber
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sun Aug 26, 2018 3:42 am

airzona11 wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:

I don't have a particular fetish for any aircraft, but I have a fetish for good business sense and for the development of comfort and safety.
Replacing a B744 by anything smaller makes sense in some cases but in a context of growing global passenger traffic, it doesn't make sense.
The same way it doesn't make sense to replace a 1-stop A380 service by a 1-stop B789 service.

What you see here, mark these words, is a hunt for short-term profits. Many airline CEO's these days are taking profits on risks taken by their predecessors.
Those risks are investments that are paying off today.
However, the investments need to be maintained.

We see many airlines making huge profits and giving dividend pay-outs with growing traffic while reducing capacity in their future fleet planning.
Talk about non-sense.

You can't place A380's at an airline like IB.
But BA should invest in more A380's because they have a mega hub to support them and they need to protect, nay, grow their market share.


Or, was the nonsense airlines in the past chasing capacity at the expense of yield? Airlines are making money because they are focused on yield. It is not in the financial interest of BA to throw A380s on the LHR-NYC sectors. If it was, the A380 has been available and they would have ordered it. Far too many economy seats. BA and all airlines are focused on optimizing for the higher yielding clients. Market share is arbitrary. Market share of F/J/Y+ passengers matters far more than overall market share. That is why it makes great sense to replace a 1-stop A380 with a 1-stop 789, if they are shedding trash yield Y class seats in the process.


Right, because the ones charging the highest fares on any given route are the ones with the smallest market share...
You are confusing market share with capacity.
Reality shows that investing in market share or let's rather call it market presence, regardless of whether your name is Starbucks or Lufthansa, is what drives continuous and sustainable business, through thick and thin.
BA's market share increase on the LHR-JFK could force Delta to downgauge. However, if tomorrow DL decides to have their own A380 fleet for the route, AA and BA can kiss the market goodbye, regardless of whether they'll be flying A350-1000 or B779.
DL will be commanding the high fares and BA will struggle to fill their aircraft even at low fares.
That's how market share works.

Do you think that EK became the 4th largest airline in the world by dowgauging and worrying about yields on their A380 routes from their hub in the middle of nowhere?
Almost any respectable airline in the world got worried by the emergence of the ME3. But hey, their A380's are too big, so they must be charging the lowest fares.
 
george77300
Topic Author
Posts: 1110
Joined: Sat May 06, 2017 8:33 pm

Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sun Aug 26, 2018 6:29 am

airzona11 wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:

I don't have a particular fetish for any aircraft, but I have a fetish for good business sense and for the development of comfort and safety.
Replacing a B744 by anything smaller makes sense in some cases but in a context of growing global passenger traffic, it doesn't make sense.
The same way it doesn't make sense to replace a 1-stop A380 service by a 1-stop B789 service.

What you see here, mark these words, is a hunt for short-term profits. Many airline CEO's these days are taking profits on risks taken by their predecessors.
Those risks are investments that are paying off today.
However, the investments need to be maintained.

We see many airlines making huge profits and giving dividend pay-outs with growing traffic while reducing capacity in their future fleet planning.
Talk about non-sense.

You can't place A380's at an airline like IB.
But BA should invest in more A380's because they have a mega hub to support them and they need to protect, nay, grow their market share.


Or, was the nonsense airlines in the past chasing capacity at the expense of yield? Airlines are making money because they are focused on yield. It is not in the financial interest of BA to throw A380s on the LHR-NYC sectors. If it was, the A380 has been available and they would have ordered it. Far too many economy seats. BA and all airlines are focused on optimizing for the higher yielding clients. Market share is arbitrary. Market share of F/J/Y+ passengers matters far more than overall market share. That is why it makes great sense to replace a 1-stop A380 with a 1-stop 789, if they are shedding trash yield Y class seats in the process.


The A380 cannot operate to JFK T7 so it is not and won’t ever be an option to NYC unless BA change terminal which is highly unlikely. Also compared to the High J 744 it adds basically no premium seats but it does add around 150 Y seats and that is the last thing they want on the LON-NYC market as it will destroy the revenue potential with loads of spare economy capacity. It is NEVER going to happen.
 
parapente
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sun Aug 26, 2018 8:04 am

The amount of premium seats in an A380 depends on how you lay it out -it ain't fixed!Todays BA A380's are layed out one way but that goes not prevent them having a 'high j' version just as they did with the 747.
The gate 'problem' at NY is an issue though -perhaps.
But there is a fact that should perhaps be answered.
Three times very publicly IAG (BA) have tried to buy 6 additional A380's.Twice new ones and once (at least) second hand.
The question therefore is.
What routes were (are) they pencilled in for? Surely it would have had to be the replacement of these final 744's -what else could they have been for?
Having said that it appears that this long standing 380 negotiation process has finally broken down.So I fully accept that it starts to look like a smaller aircraft such as the 779 or 3510.Unless either is prepared to do an additional stretch which I doubt.
 
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Dutchy
Posts: 9508
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sun Aug 26, 2018 8:14 am

parapente wrote:
The amount of premium seats in an A380 depends on how you lay it out -it ain't fixed!Todays BA A380's are layed out one way but that goes not prevent them having a 'high j' version just as they did with the 747.
The gate 'problem' at NY is an issue though -perhaps.
But there is a fact that should perhaps be answered.
Three times very publicly IAG (BA) have tried to buy 6 additional A380's.Twice new ones and once (at least) second hand.
The question therefore is.
What routes were (are) they pencilled in for? Surely it would have had to be the replacement of these final 744's -what else could they have been for?
Having said that it appears that this long standing 380 negotiation process has finally broken down.So I fully accept that it starts to look like a smaller aircraft such as the 779 or 3510.Unless either is prepared to do an additional stretch which I doubt.


Perhaps Airbus might be willing to sell those A380 at BA prices within a large order for A350's. Fingers crossed :D
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
george77300
Topic Author
Posts: 1110
Joined: Sat May 06, 2017 8:33 pm

Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sun Aug 26, 2018 9:12 am

parapente wrote:
The amount of premium seats in an A380 depends on how you lay it out -it ain't fixed!Todays BA A380's are layed out one way but that goes not prevent them having a 'high j' version just as they did with the 747.
The gate 'problem' at NY is an issue though -perhaps.
But there is a fact that should perhaps be answered.
Three times very publicly IAG (BA) have tried to buy 6 additional A380's.Twice new ones and once (at least) second hand.
The question therefore is.
What routes were (are) they pencilled in for? Surely it would have had to be the replacement of these final 744's -what else could they have been for?
Having said that it appears that this long standing 380 negotiation process has finally broken down.So I fully accept that it starts to look like a smaller aircraft such as the 779 or 3510.Unless either is prepared to do an additional stretch which I doubt.


The issue at JFK isn’t the gates in particular, I believe it’s the fact that some of the alleys at terminal 7 cannot take the width and size of the A380. His is something that cannot be changed. Considering the size of the BA operation at JFK I can’t see them ever changing terminal for a decade at the very least least but possibly never.

As for the High-J configuration it is possible but BA management already don’t like the small size of the A380 operation. I can’t see them making it even smaller by having two subfleets. It wouldn’t be viable I don’t think.
 
LY777
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Re: Britiah Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:28 am

pabloeing wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
Andy33 wrote:
Well, they've placed an order to remove the three remaining 772-nonER entirely from the fleet. Back in November 2016 they told their investors that the 772ERs would have a 30 year life. If that's still the case, they don't need any replacement for them until starting 2027 and 2018 seems a bit early to be placing an order. The investors aren't going to be best pleased if all that capital investment has been brought nearer to today (should the policy have changed) without any advance warning.

The timing of 787-10 and A35K deliveries as against 744 retirements suggests that there will be 12 744s still in service after the last of the current orders has arrived, so while all the A35Ks are officially declared as 744 replacements, some of those 12 787-10s may be for expansion if market conditions are right. If the expansion happens, they'll need 12 further airframes to replace the last 744s (that's how many IAG say will still be around in 2023), all for delivery before February 2024, the announced end date for 744s at BA
All that assumes that A350 and 787 deliveries happen as scheduled, and IAG doesn't change its plans...


If BA are to place an order to replace their remaining 12x 744s, it would be strange to place an order for anything less than 12 777-9s. It would be another widebody type for them, so keeping a small subfleet would not make much sense. I'm not sure when the leases of their 77W's expire, maybe BA needs to replace these leased birds too.

IF IAG orders the 777-9 for BA (and I'll believe it when I see it), would it be possible they'll simultaneously order A350-1000s for Iberia? I think IB have some A346s still to be replaced.


I see the B777-9X in IB too......


Unfortunately I highly doubt that IB will get the 779X
Flown:717,727,732,733,734,735,738,73H,742/744/748,752,762/2ER/763/3ER,772/77E/773/77W, 788, 789, DC8,DC10,E190,E195,MD83,MD88, L1011, A3B2,A319,A320-100/200,A321,A332/A333,A343,A388
 
RAFALAYNA
Posts: 5
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:52 am

I think BA should buy at least 8 A380 and quite a few A350-900 and A350-1000.
I think IB could buy 4-5 A380 and use them to mainly fly to Buenos Aires and México City but I am not sure that will not happen any they will buy some A350-1000!!!
 
george77300
Topic Author
Posts: 1110
Joined: Sat May 06, 2017 8:33 pm

Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sun Aug 26, 2018 12:43 pm

RAFALAYNA wrote:
I think BA should buy at least 8 A380 and quite a few A350-900 and A350-1000.
I think IB could buy 4-5 A380 and use them to mainly fly to Buenos Aires and México City but I am not sure that will not happen any they will buy some A350-1000!!!


BA does have 18 A350-1000 on order. First due 2019 and all due by end of 2021.
 
Bongodog1964
Posts: 3542
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sun Aug 26, 2018 12:52 pm

george77300 wrote:
parapente wrote:
The amount of premium seats in an A380 depends on how you lay it out -it ain't fixed!Todays BA A380's are layed out one way but that goes not prevent them having a 'high j' version just as they did with the 747.
The gate 'problem' at NY is an issue though -perhaps.
But there is a fact that should perhaps be answered.
Three times very publicly IAG (BA) have tried to buy 6 additional A380's.Twice new ones and once (at least) second hand.
The question therefore is.
What routes were (are) they pencilled in for? Surely it would have had to be the replacement of these final 744's -what else could they have been for?
Having said that it appears that this long standing 380 negotiation process has finally broken down.So I fully accept that it starts to look like a smaller aircraft such as the 779 or 3510.Unless either is prepared to do an additional stretch which I doubt.


The issue at JFK isn’t the gates in particular, I believe it’s the fact that some of the alleys at terminal 7 cannot take the width and size of the A380. His is something that cannot be changed. Considering the size of the BA operation at JFK I can’t see them ever changing terminal for a decade at the very least least but possibly never.

As for the High-J configuration it is possible but BA management already don’t like the small size of the A380 operation. I can’t see them making it even smaller by having two subfleets. It wouldn’t be viable I don’t think.


A very quick look a JFK T7 shows that one side would be impossible for A380 operation, due to the close proximity of a road, it is also however unsuitable for the 747 as well. There would appear to be no reason however why the front side of the terminal and the other side could not be reconfigured for A380 operation, yes it would lose a couple of gates, but it must be borne in mind that BA sublet much of the capacity of T7 anyway.
 
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EastLondoner
Posts: 22
Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2018 1:13 pm

Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sun Aug 26, 2018 1:01 pm

parapente wrote:
The amount of premium seats in an A380 depends on how you lay it out -it ain't fixed!Todays BA A380's are layed out one way but that goes not prevent them having a 'high j' version just as they did with the 747.
The gate 'problem' at NY is an issue though -perhaps.
But there is a fact that should perhaps be answered.
Three times very publicly IAG (BA) have tried to buy 6 additional A380's.Twice new ones and once (at least) second hand.
The question therefore is.
What routes were (are) they pencilled in for? Surely it would have had to be the replacement of these final 744's -what else could they have been for?
Having said that it appears that this long standing 380 negotiation process has finally broken down.So I fully accept that it starts to look like a smaller aircraft such as the 779 or 3510.Unless either is prepared to do an additional stretch which I doubt.


I wonder if maybe the A380s could go on other routes with multiple flights, releasing slots for JFK to be increased in frequency and therefore adding more capacity on it. Something which pops to my mind is Dubai where two 777s leave within an hour of each other in the evening, they could quite possibly be replaced with a single A380.
 
george77300
Topic Author
Posts: 1110
Joined: Sat May 06, 2017 8:33 pm

Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sun Aug 26, 2018 1:10 pm

EastLondoner wrote:
parapente wrote:
The amount of premium seats in an A380 depends on how you lay it out -it ain't fixed!Todays BA A380's are layed out one way but that goes not prevent them having a 'high j' version just as they did with the 747.
The gate 'problem' at NY is an issue though -perhaps.
But there is a fact that should perhaps be answered.
Three times very publicly IAG (BA) have tried to buy 6 additional A380's.Twice new ones and once (at least) second hand.
The question therefore is.
What routes were (are) they pencilled in for? Surely it would have had to be the replacement of these final 744's -what else could they have been for?
Having said that it appears that this long standing 380 negotiation process has finally broken down.So I fully accept that it starts to look like a smaller aircraft such as the 779 or 3510.Unless either is prepared to do an additional stretch which I doubt.


I wonder if maybe the A380s could go on other routes with multiple flights, releasing slots for JFK to be increased in frequency and therefore adding more capacity on it. Something which pops to my mind is Dubai where two 777s leave within an hour of each other in the evening, they could quite possibly be replaced with a single A380.


I accept there are a few variations in the 777 configuration but usually 14F/48J/40W/124Y. If they condensed it to a A380 they would lose 14F and 25W and only gain 55Y seats (yes and 1 J). Dubai is a premium market and they wouldn't want to give up the premium seats in return for extra and probably not needed economy capacity. It could potentially destroy their yields. It is the same reason why unless they re configure they won't send A380 to JFK (assuming they could) to replace 747. It just adds economy seats which is not what they want.
 
AIRTRANSAT767
Posts: 87
Joined: Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:36 am

Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sun Aug 26, 2018 1:47 pm

I see earlier BA buy or rent B777-300ER or B777-9 it's on I give a chance to B747-8I it is very good
i love air transat and fan all boeing
 
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Kindanew
Posts: 159
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sun Aug 26, 2018 2:59 pm

Why can’t people accept that the 747-8 passenger version is dead?
 
BA777FO
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sun Aug 26, 2018 3:18 pm

parapente wrote:
Three times very publicly IAG (BA) have tried to buy 6 additional A380's.Twice new ones and once (at least) second hand...

What routes were (are) they pencilled in for? Surely it would have had to be the replacement of these final 744's -what else could they have been for?
Having said that it appears that this long standing 380 negotiation process has finally broken down.


The negotiations over A380s were a classic Willie tactic, he did the same with Norwegian, talk about, act serious, but always knowing he'll never stump up the money for it. Why do it with the A380s? To leverage a better price out of Boeing for the 777-9 or a better price on more 787-10s - you're more likely to see a super hi-J version of the 787-10. In a similar vein, having 787s on order with Boeing and the threat of ordering a load of 777-9s shows Airbus he wants a good price on more A350s. Classic game of playing them off against each other.

In reality, BA don't like the A380 - it's inflexible, has awful economics if you can't fill it (same is true of every plane but while you can fill an A380 in the summer, doing so on a Wednesday in November is a lot harder) and its cargo capacity is poor.

This is all shown in that the A380 works for BA where frequency ism't that key, which is a small amount of routed pretty much limited to HKG, SIN and JNB. It's been tried to MIA, IAD, seasonal to YVR, ORD, LAX and SFO but ultimately while it might work once daily to LAX and SFO BA has retreated from 2x A380 daily LAX and reverted to 3x daily with only 1 A380. Cargo a hig factor, they couldn't carry it all with 2xA380s but frequency and the 3rd flight helps in the competition with Virgin/Delta. It's clearly not worked at IAD - that is now no longer on the A380 and frequency back up to more than 2x day. BOS a few times a week shoes that network planning have no idea what to do with it! Not sure it'll last long to ORD - that used to be 3xdaily pre-2009 and it's a route that requires frequency given the connections onto AA.

The A350 would work well to SFO, MIA, LAX, HKG as the other non-A380 flight but there'a already an order that covers that. The 787-10s should be sble to replace the 747 quite well to the likes of LOS, RUH, IAD, BOS and perhaps it'll be the 787-10 that gets the super hi-J config. The 777-300ER if 10 abreast in Y could mean a big increase in J seats without much loss of Y seating. So there are options.

This order will be as much to replace the last 747s as it will 20 or so early 777s - that means 787s to Heathrow to free up some 777s to move to Gatwick too. There are lots of ex-Monarch slots that need to be flown. That's why I think it'd more likely be a 787-9/10 order and perhaps a smattering of A350-9/10s split between Iberia and BA. Probably delivery 2022ish onwards, so no time soon.
 
Waterbomber
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sun Aug 26, 2018 4:12 pm

BA777FO wrote:
parapente wrote:
Three times very publicly IAG (BA) have tried to buy 6 additional A380's.Twice new ones and once (at least) second hand...

What routes were (are) they pencilled in for? Surely it would have had to be the replacement of these final 744's -what else could they have been for?
Having said that it appears that this long standing 380 negotiation process has finally broken down.


The negotiations over A380s were a classic Willie tactic, he did the same with Norwegian, talk about, act serious, but always knowing he'll never stump up the money for it. Why do it with the A380s? To leverage a better price out of Boeing for the 777-9 or a better price on more 787-10s - you're more likely to see a super hi-J version of the 787-10. In a similar vein, having 787s on order with Boeing and the threat of ordering a load of 777-9s shows Airbus he wants a good price on more A350s. Classic game of playing them off against each other.

In reality, BA don't like the A380 - it's inflexible, has awful economics if you can't fill it (same is true of every plane but while you can fill an A380 in the summer, doing so on a Wednesday in November is a lot harder) and its cargo capacity is poor.

This is all shown in that the A380 works for BA where frequency ism't that key, which is a small amount of routed pretty much limited to HKG, SIN and JNB. It's been tried to MIA, IAD, seasonal to YVR, ORD, LAX and SFO but ultimately while it might work once daily to LAX and SFO BA has retreated from 2x A380 daily LAX and reverted to 3x daily with only 1 A380. Cargo a hig factor, they couldn't carry it all with 2xA380s but frequency and the 3rd flight helps in the competition with Virgin/Delta. It's clearly not worked at IAD - that is now no longer on the A380 and frequency back up to more than 2x day. BOS a few times a week shoes that network planning have no idea what to do with it! Not sure it'll last long to ORD - that used to be 3xdaily pre-2009 and it's a route that requires frequency given the connections onto AA.

The A350 would work well to SFO, MIA, LAX, HKG as the other non-A380 flight but there'a already an order that covers that. The 787-10s should be sble to replace the 747 quite well to the likes of LOS, RUH, IAD, BOS and perhaps it'll be the 787-10 that gets the super hi-J config. The 777-300ER if 10 abreast in Y could mean a big increase in J seats without much loss of Y seating. So there are options.

This order will be as much to replace the last 747s as it will 20 or so early 777s - that means 787s to Heathrow to free up some 777s to move to Gatwick too. There are lots of ex-Monarch slots that need to be flown. That's why I think it'd more likely be a 787-9/10 order and perhaps a smattering of A350-9/10s split between Iberia and BA. Probably delivery 2022ish onwards, so no time soon.


The B787-10 yes, but what need does BA have for a B779? Their long haul fleet is built around the B772 size, with a dozen recent B77W's and a number of A35J's on the way.
Just below that they have the B787's covering the full spectrum.
A few rows of additional seats is not worth building a fleet of 3 types in the same size category, ie B77W/B779/A35J. That's not smart.

The A380 is not an aircraft that you can fit into an existing operation. You need to build your operations around it, the same way operators did when the B747 was launched.
Seasonality is a factor in all markets but LHR is one of those markets where seasonality is the least pronounced, at least in terms of volume.
I don't think that BA will have a problem filling a very premium configured A380 on a Wednesday in November between JFK and LHR.
I think though that the best way is to combine the A380 with B787-10's on the route, where the A380 covers the busiest slots and offers flagship service.
It's not only about schedule you know, people won't mind taking a 1 later departure to be on an A380 if it means that they can sleep better on board. A good sleep also has its value, that's why people invest in J fares.
 
BA777FO
Posts: 308
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:24 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
parapente wrote:
Three times very publicly IAG (BA) have tried to buy 6 additional A380's.Twice new ones and once (at least) second hand...

What routes were (are) they pencilled in for? Surely it would have had to be the replacement of these final 744's -what else could they have been for?
Having said that it appears that this long standing 380 negotiation process has finally broken down.


The negotiations over A380s were a classic Willie tactic, he did the same with Norwegian, talk about, act serious, but always knowing he'll never stump up the money for it. Why do it with the A380s? To leverage a better price out of Boeing for the 777-9 or a better price on more 787-10s - you're more likely to see a super hi-J version of the 787-10. In a similar vein, having 787s on order with Boeing and the threat of ordering a load of 777-9s shows Airbus he wants a good price on more A350s. Classic game of playing them off against each other.

In reality, BA don't like the A380 - it's inflexible, has awful economics if you can't fill it (same is true of every plane but while you can fill an A380 in the summer, doing so on a Wednesday in November is a lot harder) and its cargo capacity is poor.

This is all shown in that the A380 works for BA where frequency ism't that key, which is a small amount of routed pretty much limited to HKG, SIN and JNB. It's been tried to MIA, IAD, seasonal to YVR, ORD, LAX and SFO but ultimately while it might work once daily to LAX and SFO BA has retreated from 2x A380 daily LAX and reverted to 3x daily with only 1 A380. Cargo a hig factor, they couldn't carry it all with 2xA380s but frequency and the 3rd flight helps in the competition with Virgin/Delta. It's clearly not worked at IAD - that is now no longer on the A380 and frequency back up to more than 2x day. BOS a few times a week shoes that network planning have no idea what to do with it! Not sure it'll last long to ORD - that used to be 3xdaily pre-2009 and it's a route that requires frequency given the connections onto AA.

The A350 would work well to SFO, MIA, LAX, HKG as the other non-A380 flight but there'a already an order that covers that. The 787-10s should be sble to replace the 747 quite well to the likes of LOS, RUH, IAD, BOS and perhaps it'll be the 787-10 that gets the super hi-J config. The 777-300ER if 10 abreast in Y could mean a big increase in J seats without much loss of Y seating. So there are options.

This order will be as much to replace the last 747s as it will 20 or so early 777s - that means 787s to Heathrow to free up some 777s to move to Gatwick too. There are lots of ex-Monarch slots that need to be flown. That's why I think it'd more likely be a 787-9/10 order and perhaps a smattering of A350-9/10s split between Iberia and BA. Probably delivery 2022ish onwards, so no time soon.


The B787-10 yes, but what need does BA have for a B779? Their long haul fleet is built around the B772 size, with a dozen recent B77W's and a number of A35J's on the way.
Just below that they have the B787's covering the full spectrum.
A few rows of additional seats is not worth building a fleet of 3 types in the same size category, ie B77W/B779/A35J. That's not smart.

The A380 is not an aircraft that you can fit into an existing operation. You need to build your operations around it, the same way operators did when the B747 was launched.
Seasonality is a factor in all markets but LHR is one of those markets where seasonality is the least pronounced, at least in terms of volume.
I don't think that BA will have a problem filling a very premium configured A380 on a Wednesday in November between JFK and LHR.
I think though that the best way is to combine the A380 with B787-10's on the route, where the A380 covers the busiest slots and offers flagship service.
It's not only about schedule you know, people won't mind taking a 1 later departure to be on an A380 if it means that they can sleep better on board. A good sleep also has its value, that's why people invest in J fares.


It doesn’t really matter if the 777-9 is a bit too capable, if you can have such a thing, if the price is right. If BA get them at bargain prices they won’t really care. The 777-9 will still be useful on routes such HND, SIN, HKG, EZE, JNB, CPT, PEK, PVG, GRU, LAX, SFO, MIA etc. The A350 might be able to cover all of those well, but if they end up having to pay more for the A350 than the 777 then I don’t think BA will care about the complication - a long haul fleet of ~20 is sufficient to still get the rewards from economies of scale. That said, even if BA end up with a long haul fleet of 777-2/3, 787, A350 and A380 it’s the same as today, just swap the 747 for 777-9. The crew conversion from 787 to 777-9 is estimated to be relatively straight forward too. Just as many large airlines operate both the 737 and A320 today. That said, I’m not convinced IAG will go for 777-9s unless the price is a steal, but it’s in the mix to use as leverage against Airbus. It has to be to get the best deal possible. IAG aren’t going to turn up to Airbus and say “the A350 is perfect, we’ve ruled out the 787-9 as too small, the 787-10 doesn’t have the performance and the 777-9 is too capable.” Airbus will just jack up the price, you’ve played your hand!

The A380 doesn’t work for BA, doesn’t matter how much you try and build around it or do whatever with it. It’s a niche aircraft that can profitably sustain service on only a handful of routes. Bob Ayling tried to build the short haul fleet around the 757 to cater for future growth, it didn’t work. It was too much aeroplane for many routes. But as has been said multiple times, the infrastructure constraints of T7 at JFK means the A380 will never go there. In addition, the A380 might be a decent aircraft for a customer, but having a J cabin of 150 loses its intimacy, it loses its appeal. You’ll also end up in a huge immigration queue! It’s about frequency, not volume and in the process trashing your yields. The 777 is a more frequent visitor to JFK these days taking over some 747 frequencies, that tells you the direction it’s going in. The leisure traveller might not worry about time but BA’s highest yielding customers won’t and don’t choose by aircraft type, they’ll choose by schedule. I’ve flown some exceptionally high yielding, commercially important passengers, on the 777 to and from JFK rather than them going in the arguably more intimate First on the 747. Plus, the 787 onboard experience is every bit as good as the A380s.

As for a Wednesday in November, I’ve seen the loads drop off to quite a few places. It’s not so bad now that the industry is performing well, but if the economy starts turning south in the run up to or just after Brexit day then it’ll get tough quite quickly. Fuel prices are already on the up, the really hurts the A380’s economics, especially with large financing costs to boot.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sun Aug 26, 2018 6:33 pm

If the A380 "does not work for BA", why did WW say he would buy more at the right price?
 
airzona11
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sun Aug 26, 2018 7:14 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:

I don't have a particular fetish for any aircraft, but I have a fetish for good business sense and for the development of comfort and safety.
Replacing a B744 by anything smaller makes sense in some cases but in a context of growing global passenger traffic, it doesn't make sense.
The same way it doesn't make sense to replace a 1-stop A380 service by a 1-stop B789 service.

What you see here, mark these words, is a hunt for short-term profits. Many airline CEO's these days are taking profits on risks taken by their predecessors.
Those risks are investments that are paying off today.
However, the investments need to be maintained.

We see many airlines making huge profits and giving dividend pay-outs with growing traffic while reducing capacity in their future fleet planning.
Talk about non-sense.

You can't place A380's at an airline like IB.
But BA should invest in more A380's because they have a mega hub to support them and they need to protect, nay, grow their market share.


Or, was the nonsense airlines in the past chasing capacity at the expense of yield? Airlines are making money because they are focused on yield. It is not in the financial interest of BA to throw A380s on the LHR-NYC sectors. If it was, the A380 has been available and they would have ordered it. Far too many economy seats. BA and all airlines are focused on optimizing for the higher yielding clients. Market share is arbitrary. Market share of F/J/Y+ passengers matters far more than overall market share. That is why it makes great sense to replace a 1-stop A380 with a 1-stop 789, if they are shedding trash yield Y class seats in the process.


Right, because the ones charging the highest fares on any given route are the ones with the smallest market share...
You are confusing market share with capacity.
Reality shows that investing in market share or let's rather call it market presence, regardless of whether your name is Starbucks or Lufthansa, is what drives continuous and sustainable business, through thick and thin.
BA's market share increase on the LHR-JFK could force Delta to downgauge. However, if tomorrow DL decides to have their own A380 fleet for the route, AA and BA can kiss the market goodbye, regardless of whether they'll be flying A350-1000 or B779.
DL will be commanding the high fares and BA will struggle to fill their aircraft even at low fares.
That's how market share works.

Do you think that EK became the 4th largest airline in the world by dowgauging and worrying about yields on their A380 routes from their hub in the middle of nowhere?
Almost any respectable airline in the world got worried by the emergence of the ME3. But hey, their A380's are too big, so they must be charging the lowest fares.


EK's entire business model is built on connections. Hence they are the only large-scale operator of the A380. BA operates out of the world's number international business O/D hub in the world. Their models are not the on different ends of the spectrum. With JV in particular, it exacerbates it even more, they flow connecting traffic differently to optimize, just like they optimize for O/D. It is apples and oranges, and the reason why BA or any other airline is not flying A380s on every route. Airlines profitability is at all-time highs, capacity discipline and proper aircraft allocation are how they got there.

If DL throws A380s on the route in your example, they will bleed money. Hence, it isn't happening.
 
george77300
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sun Aug 26, 2018 7:45 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
If the A380 "does not work for BA", why did WW say he would buy more at the right price?


Bargaining. If WW says he wants some more A380s. Boeing might well give a better deal on some B777-9Xs. Same goes the other way if he says he wants more 787s they may well get a better deal on some more A350s.
 
ramzi
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Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sun Aug 26, 2018 8:43 pm

BA777FO wrote:
parapente wrote:
Three times very publicly IAG (BA) have tried to buy 6 additional A380's.Twice new ones and once (at least) second hand...

What routes were (are) they pencilled in for? Surely it would have had to be the replacement of these final 744's -what else could they have been for?
Having said that it appears that this long standing 380 negotiation process has finally broken down.


The negotiations over A380s were a classic Willie tactic, he did the same with Norwegian, talk about, act serious, but always knowing he'll never stump up the money for it. Why do it with the A380s? To leverage a better price out of Boeing for the 777-9 or a better price on more 787-10s - you're more likely to see a super hi-J version of the 787-10. In a similar vein, having 787s on order with Boeing and the threat of ordering a load of 777-9s shows Airbus he wants a good price on more A350s. Classic game of playing them off against each other.

In reality, BA don't like the A380 - it's inflexible, has awful economics if you can't fill it (same is true of every plane but while you can fill an A380 in the summer, doing so on a Wednesday in November is a lot harder) and its cargo capacity is poor.

This is all shown in that the A380 works for BA where frequency ism't that key, which is a small amount of routed pretty much limited to HKG, SIN and JNB. It's been tried to MIA, IAD, seasonal to YVR, ORD, LAX and SFO but ultimately while it might work once daily to LAX and SFO BA has retreated from 2x A380 daily LAX and reverted to 3x daily with only 1 A380. Cargo a hig factor, they couldn't carry it all with 2xA380s but frequency and the 3rd flight helps in the competition with Virgin/Delta. It's clearly not worked at IAD - that is now no longer on the A380 and frequency back up to more than 2x day. BOS a few times a week shoes that network planning have no idea what to do with it! Not sure it'll last long to ORD - that used to be 3xdaily pre-2009 and it's a route that requires frequency given the connections onto AA.

The A350 would work well to SFO, MIA, LAX, HKG as the other non-A380 flight but there'a already an order that covers that. The 787-10s should be sble to replace the 747 quite well to the likes of LOS, RUH, IAD, BOS and perhaps it'll be the 787-10 that gets the super hi-J config. The 777-300ER if 10 abreast in Y could mean a big increase in J seats without much loss of Y seating. So there are options.

This order will be as much to replace the last 747s as it will 20 or so early 777s - that means 787s to Heathrow to free up some 777s to move to Gatwick too. There are lots of ex-Monarch slots that need to be flown. That's why I think it'd more likely be a 787-9/10 order and perhaps a smattering of A350-9/10s split between Iberia and BA. Probably delivery 2022ish onwards, so no time soon.



Spot on. I see an almost certain top-up for both A350-1000 and 787-9/10. If at all there is a 779 order, I imagine it as a replacement for the 77W. I wouldn't be surprised if the A350s on order are premium heavy, especially with the new club world seat. I have heard it said that JFK is the first intended destination for the A350, and I believe that would make a lot of sense. It is hard to guess, with a lot bound to change in the coming months, but it is definitely exciting to see more and more new wide bodies plus the refurbishments. Honestly some of those older 747s and 777s have become annoying to fly on, especially the ridiculous Y+ product and the tiny IFE.
There will come a time when you believe everything is finished - that will be the beginning.
 
mutu
Posts: 483
Joined: Tue Mar 21, 2006 7:04 am

Re: Britiah Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sun Aug 26, 2018 8:53 pm

[quote="LockheedBBD

I remember the old American saying, "if it ain't Boeing I ain't going".


I believe the old British saying is, "if it is a Boeing, I will not be going." :lol:[/quote]

As a Brit of more than ample years, not sure I have ever heard that...old enough to remember BA with an almost entirely Boeing fleet of 737/747/757/767/777...and a few Concordes!!
 
BA777FO
Posts: 308
Joined: Sun Apr 22, 2018 2:58 pm

Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sun Aug 26, 2018 9:29 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
If the A380 "does not work for BA", why did WW say he would buy more at the right price?


One of two reasons: 1) at the right price (in this instance virtually given away) he’d take anything and 2) to use as leverage against Boeing to get a good deal out of them for somethig else. It’s negotiations. It’s not surprising he never bought any, he never really intended to.
 
oslmgm
Posts: 208
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2014 6:29 pm

Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

Sun Aug 26, 2018 9:47 pm

george77300 wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
If the A380 "does not work for BA", why did WW say he would buy more at the right price?


Bargaining. If WW says he wants some more A380s. Boeing might well give a better deal on some B777-9Xs. Same goes the other way if he says he wants more 787s they may well get a better deal on some more A350s.

BA777FO wrote:
The negotiations over A380s were a classic Willie tactic, he did the same with Norwegian, talk about, act serious, but always knowing he'll never stump up the money for it.


And what was he bargaining for with Norwegian?

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