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TucsonDave
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Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 3:54 pm

Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Mon Aug 27, 2018 5:11 pm

fraspotter wrote:
Already served by WN (barely) but would be nice if they stopped neglecting RIC with some new routes that don't rely on ATL so much.

Totally agree. We often fly West from RIC and would greatly appreciate a more direct route than via ATL.
 
WNflyer1523
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Mon Aug 27, 2018 5:13 pm

Coronado990 wrote:
ISP-LGB non-stop. Long Island to Long Beach.

There is a Long Beach on Long Island... Long Beach to Long Beach! Lol
 
WNflyer1523
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Mon Aug 27, 2018 5:16 pm

If WN decides to add eastern destinations from LAS, I could maybe see ISP and PVD.
 
jplatts
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:57 am

The top destinations in the contiguous U.S. traveled to from LAX that WN doesn't currently serve nonstop from LAX include SEA, EWR, BOS, MCO, IAD, MSP, PHL, DTW, CLE, RDU, CVG, CLT, and CMH. Of these destinations, the routes that WN would most likely add out of LAX if WN adds new nonstop routes out of LAX would be LAX-CLE, LAX-CMH, LAX-SEA, and LAX-IAD.

There are still some more additional nonstop routes that WN could add out of California airports in order to strengthen its position against AS in California, including LAX-SEA, LAX-IAD, OAK-RDU, OAK-IAD, SAN-BOS, SAN-MSP, SAN-OMA, SJC-RDU, and SJC-IAD.

Will WN announce any new nonstop routes out of California on Thursday, and if so, which nonstop routes out of California is WN likely to announce on Thursday?
 
jbmitt
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:07 am

jplatts wrote:
The top destinations in the contiguous U.S. traveled to from LAX that WN doesn't currently serve nonstop from LAX include SEA, EWR, BOS, MCO, IAD, MSP, PHL, DTW, CLE, RDU, CVG, CLT, and CMH. Of these destinations, the routes that WN would most likely add out of LAX if WN adds new nonstop routes out of LAX would be LAX-CLE, LAX-CMH, LAX-SEA, and LAX-IAD.

There are still some more additional nonstop routes that WN could add out of California airports in order to strengthen its position against AS in California, including LAX-SEA, LAX-IAD, OAK-RDU, OAK-IAD, SAN-BOS, SAN-MSP, SAN-OMA, SJC-RDU, and SJC-IAD.

Will WN announce any new nonstop routes out of California on Thursday, and if so, which nonstop routes out of California is WN likely to announce on Thursday?


Why would WN want to be the 3rd carrier on LAX - CMH. I believe that AA just announced double daily.
Last edited by jbmitt on Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
dbo861
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:15 am

jbmitt wrote:
jplatts wrote:
The top destinations in the contiguous U.S. traveled to from LAX that WN doesn't currently serve nonstop from LAX include SEA, EWR, BOS, MCO, IAD, MSP, PHL, DTW, CLE, RDU, CVG, CLT, and CMH. Of these destinations, the routes that WN would most likely add out of LAX if WN adds new nonstop routes out of LAX would be LAX-CLE, LAX-CMH, LAX-SEA, and LAX-IAD.

There are still some more additional nonstop routes that WN could add out of California airports in order to strengthen its position against AS in California, including LAX-SEA, LAX-IAD, OAK-RDU, OAK-IAD, SAN-BOS, SAN-MSP, SAN-OMA, SJC-RDU, and SJC-IAD.

Will WN announce any new nonstop routes out of California on Thursday, and if so, which nonstop routes out of California is WN likely to announce on Thursday?


Why would WN want to be the 3rd Cartier on LAX - CMH. I believe that AA just announced double daily.


Or the 5th carrier on LAX-SEA which currently has 32 daily flights:
AS 15x daily
DL 10x daily
AA 5x daily
UA 2x daily
 
jplatts
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:55 am

dbo861 wrote:
Or the 5th carrier on LAX-SEA which currently has 32 daily flights:
AS 15x daily
DL 10x daily
AA 5x daily
UA 2x daily


AS, DL, AA, UA, and WN all currently serve SLC nonstop from LAX, and there is significantly more O&D demand on SEA-LAX than there is on SLC-LAX.

AS, DL, AA, UA, WN, and NK all also serve Dallas nonstop from LAX, but WN and AS serve only DAL in the DFW Metroplex nonstop from LAX whereas AA, DL, UA, and NK serve only DFW in the DFW Metroplex nonstop from LAX.

Here is the breakdown of the number of nonstops on LAX-SLC: DL (8x), AA (4x), WN (3x), UA (2x), AS (1x)
Here is the breakdown of the number of nonstops on LAX-DFW/DAL: AA (13x to DFW), DL (4x to DFW), UA (3x to DFW), NK (3x to DFW), WN (4x to DAL), AS (3x to DAL)

There is room for WN to add LAX-SEA nonstop service with VX no longer around and with NK no longer serving SEA nonstop from LAX. If Dallas and Salt Lake City can support nonstop service out of LAX on AS, DL, AA, UA, and WN, SEA can probably support nonstop service to LAX on WN in addition to AS, DL, AA, and UA. The O&D demand is also greater on LAX-SEA than on LAX-Dallas or LAX-SLC.

In Q3 2017, the average number of passengers per day on LAX-SEA was 5,576 passengers a day (both directions), compared to 4,534 passengers a day on LAX-DFW/DAL and 1,718 passengers a day on LAX-SLC.
 
ericm2031
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:41 am

F9 just announced they will be the only US-based airline to offer LAS-Mexico service. I'm not sure WN would announce it now, but I think it's definitely in WN's future plans.
 
dbo861
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 5:24 am

jplatts wrote:
dbo861 wrote:
Or the 5th carrier on LAX-SEA which currently has 32 daily flights:
AS 15x daily
DL 10x daily
AA 5x daily
UA 2x daily


AS, DL, AA, UA, and WN all currently serve SLC nonstop from LAX, and there is significantly more O&D demand on SEA-LAX than there is on SLC-LAX.

AS, DL, AA, UA, WN, and NK all also serve Dallas nonstop from LAX, but WN and AS serve only DAL in the DFW Metroplex nonstop from LAX whereas AA, DL, UA, and NK serve only DFW in the DFW Metroplex nonstop from LAX.

Here is the breakdown of the number of nonstops on LAX-SLC: DL (8x), AA (4x), WN (3x), UA (2x), AS (1x)
Here is the breakdown of the number of nonstops on LAX-DFW/DAL: AA (13x to DFW), DL (4x to DFW), UA (3x to DFW), NK (3x to DFW), WN (4x to DAL), AS (3x to DAL)

There is room for WN to add LAX-SEA nonstop service with VX no longer around and with NK no longer serving SEA nonstop from LAX. If Dallas and Salt Lake City can support nonstop service out of LAX on AS, DL, AA, UA, and WN, SEA can probably support nonstop service to LAX on WN in addition to AS, DL, AA, and UA. The O&D demand is also greater on LAX-SEA than on LAX-Dallas or LAX-SLC.

In Q3 2017, the average number of passengers per day on LAX-SEA was 5,576 passengers a day (both directions), compared to 4,534 passengers a day on LAX-DFW/DAL and 1,718 passengers a day on LAX-SLC.


Is that 5,576 number LAX-SEA specifically, or the enter LA basin to SEA? If you're including both Dallas airports-LAX in your justification above, it's only fair you compare all LA airports-SEA, which tomorrow alone AS has 28 flights in each direction between SEA and ONT/SNA/LAX/BUR, DL has 15. It's a huge market, but there's also ALOT of competition (5 airlines if you include B6, over 50 flights per day between the two cities) so I think it's unlikely Southwest jumps in. But you're right, it's possible they COULD possibly add LAX-SEA, just like the all the other routes you've suggested they COULD add with this schedule release..and like you do with every WN schedule release thread.

For shits and gigs I skimmed through this thread and came up with a list of every route you say Southwest COULD add this cycle: LAS-ISP, LAS-CVG, HOU-PUJ, HOU-CVG/CLE/DTW/MSP/ONT/SFO, Anchorage service, CVG-PHX/MCO, RIC-MDW, CRP-DAL although you say it's unlikely we'll see GEG-CRP, ISP-BNA/STL, LAX-CLE, LAX-CMH, LAX-SEA, LAX-IAD, OAK-RDU, OAK-IAD, SAN-BOS, SAN-MSP, SAN-OMA, SJC-RDU, and SJC-IAD. I mean, hey, if you throw out enough city pairs, you're bound to be right eventually..
 
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barney captain
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 6:45 am

For shits and gigs I skimmed through this thread and came up with a list of every route you say Southwest COULD add this cycle: LAS-ISP, LAS-CVG, HOU-PUJ, HOU-CVG/CLE/DTW/MSP/ONT/SFO, Anchorage service, CVG-PHX/MCO, RIC-MDW, CRP-DAL although you say it's unlikely we'll see GEG-CRP, ISP-BNA/STL, LAX-CLE, LAX-CMH, LAX-SEA, LAX-IAD, OAK-RDU, OAK-IAD, SAN-BOS, SAN-MSP, SAN-OMA, SJC-RDU, and SJC-IAD. I mean, hey, if you throw out enough city pairs, you're bound to be right eventually..


Maddening isn't it? It's enough to make you block a person.

Ehem.
Southeast Of Disorder
 
jplatts
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:26 pm

dbo861 wrote:
Is that 5,576 number LAX-SEA specifically, or the enter LA basin to SEA? If you're including both Dallas airports-LAX in your justification above, it's only fair you compare all LA airports-SEA, which tomorrow alone AS has 28 flights in each direction between SEA and ONT/SNA/LAX/BUR, DL has 15. It's a huge market, but there's also ALOT of competition (5 airlines if you include B6, over 50 flights per day between the two cities) so I think it's unlikely Southwest jumps in. But you're right, it's possible they COULD possibly add LAX-SEA, just like the all the other routes you've suggested they COULD add with this schedule release..and like you do with every WN schedule release thread.


The 5,576 number is only on LAX-SEA and doesn't include BUR-SEA, LGB-SEA, ONT-SEA, or SNA-SEA. The average number of passengers per day on SEA-LAX/BUR/LGB/ONT/SNA was 9,418 passengers per day in Q3 2017

The average number of passengers per day between Greater Los Angeles and the DFW Metroplex (all 5 Greater LA Airports plus both DFW and DAL in the DFW Metroplex included) was 6,350 passengers per day in Q3 2017.

VX used to serve SEA nonstop from LAX prior to the AS-VX merger and the discontinuation of the VX brand, and the 5,576 number includes travel on the VX LAX-SEA nonstops. There is room for additional competition on LAX-SEA with Virgin America no longer around.
 
dolphinflyer
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:27 pm

dbo861 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
dbo861 wrote:
Or the 5th carrier on LAX-SEA which currently has 32 daily flights:
AS 15x daily
DL 10x daily
AA 5x daily
UA 2x daily


AS, DL, AA, UA, and WN all currently serve SLC nonstop from LAX, and there is significantly more O&D demand on SEA-LAX than there is on SLC-LAX.

AS, DL, AA, UA, WN, and NK all also serve Dallas nonstop from LAX, but WN and AS serve only DAL in the DFW Metroplex nonstop from LAX whereas AA, DL, UA, and NK serve only DFW in the DFW Metroplex nonstop from LAX.

Here is the breakdown of the number of nonstops on LAX-SLC: DL (8x), AA (4x), WN (3x), UA (2x), AS (1x)
Here is the breakdown of the number of nonstops on LAX-DFW/DAL: AA (13x to DFW), DL (4x to DFW), UA (3x to DFW), NK (3x to DFW), WN (4x to DAL), AS (3x to DAL)

There is room for WN to add LAX-SEA nonstop service with VX no longer around and with NK no longer serving SEA nonstop from LAX. If Dallas and Salt Lake City can support nonstop service out of LAX on AS, DL, AA, UA, and WN, SEA can probably support nonstop service to LAX on WN in addition to AS, DL, AA, and UA. The O&D demand is also greater on LAX-SEA than on LAX-Dallas or LAX-SLC.

In Q3 2017, the average number of passengers per day on LAX-SEA was 5,576 passengers a day (both directions), compared to 4,534 passengers a day on LAX-DFW/DAL and 1,718 passengers a day on LAX-SLC.


Is that 5,576 number LAX-SEA specifically, or the enter LA basin to SEA? If you're including both Dallas airports-LAX in your justification above, it's only fair you compare all LA airports-SEA, which tomorrow alone AS has 28 flights in each direction between SEA and ONT/SNA/LAX/BUR, DL has 15. It's a huge market, but there's also ALOT of competition (5 airlines if you include B6, over 50 flights per day between the two cities) so I think it's unlikely Southwest jumps in. But you're right, it's possible they COULD possibly add LAX-SEA, just like the all the other routes you've suggested they COULD add with this schedule release..and like you do with every WN schedule release thread.

For shits and gigs I skimmed through this thread and came up with a list of every route you say Southwest COULD add this cycle: LAS-ISP, LAS-CVG, HOU-PUJ, HOU-CVG/CLE/DTW/MSP/ONT/SFO, Anchorage service, CVG-PHX/MCO, RIC-MDW, CRP-DAL although you say it's unlikely we'll see GEG-CRP, ISP-BNA/STL, LAX-CLE, LAX-CMH, LAX-SEA, LAX-IAD, OAK-RDU, OAK-IAD, SAN-BOS, SAN-MSP, SAN-OMA, SJC-RDU, and SJC-IAD. I mean, hey, if you throw out enough city pairs, you're bound to be right eventually..


The poster in question employs zero strategy. WN "could" add any route they wish, but they don't. There's no sense of sound network strategy. It's like throwing darts at the wall - blindfolded. Maddening...
 
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SteveXC500
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:49 pm

For MSP, I would bet WN adds TPA and RSW, Saturday-only for the Spring Break season. MCO will continue as a Saturday-only flight (currently Nov-Mar). LAS may return, ALSO as Saturday only, but possibly daily, only for Mar/Apr. This is the way it was in 2018 and nearly every year prior. No surprises.
The rest of MSP's destinations SHOULD remain intact as they are, with minor weekend tweaks, as is the norm. With some of the recent adds (DAL, OAK), MCI has seen some downturn in LF. It bears watching, but it is currently in the low 70s.
 
lat41
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:02 pm

WNflyer1523 wrote:
If WN decides to add eastern destinations from LAS, I could maybe see ISP and PVD.

WN had a PVD LAS a few years back and they discontinued it. Before PVD added 1700' to the main runway, there were occasional weight problems in sweltering weather (like today) or contaminated runway days for the 2358 mile flight on the 73G. WN claimed too many passengers using LAS for a connecting point for lower cost West Coast destinations rather than point to point travel. Southwest must have wanted more yield from that always full flight.

Sometimes it's harder to get a flight back that was lost than a brand new startup.
 
jplatts
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:41 pm

dolphinflyer wrote:
The poster in question employs zero strategy. WN "could" add any route they wish, but they don't. There's no sense of sound network strategy. It's like throwing darts at the wall - blindfolded. Maddening...


I mentioned WN adding RIC-MDW nonstop service since MDW is the largest WN focus city, since WN already serves most of its East Coast destinations nonstop from MDW, since RIC is the only East Coast market that has never had nonstop service to MDW on WN, and since WN already has nonstop service to MDW from markets smaller than RIC. WN would also be able to connect passengers to additional destinations from RIC if it added RIC-MDW nonstop service.

WN is still expanding domestically at HOU, and there are a few markets remaining in the Midwest such as CVG, CLE, DTW, and MSP that WN could serve nonstop out of HOU. There was an article on Cleveland.com published on October 31, 2017 that said that WN was considering adding CLE-HOU and CLE-FLL nonstop service. In addition, WN would be able to provide easier connections to CRP, HRL, AUS, SAT, and international destinations from CVG, CLE, DTW, and MSP if WN added HOU-CVG, HOU-CLE, HOU-DTW, and HOU-MSP nonstop service.

What constitutes a sound network strategy vs. throwing darts at the wall? WN has a different network strategy from AA and UA since AA and UA usually only operate nonstop routes to or from their hubs, whereas WN has many point-to-point nonstop routes that do not touch the 20 largest WN stations.
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:57 pm

lat41 wrote:
WNflyer1523 wrote:
If WN decides to add eastern destinations from LAS, I could maybe see ISP and PVD.

WN had a PVD LAS a few years back and they discontinued it. Before PVD added 1700' to the main runway, there were occasional weight problems in sweltering weather (like today) or contaminated runway days for the 2358 mile flight on the 73G. WN claimed too many passengers using LAS for a connecting point for lower cost West Coast destinations rather than point to point travel. Southwest must have wanted more yield from that always full flight.

Sometimes it's harder to get a flight back that was lost than a brand new startup.

The nonstop yield factor can be maddening for smaller stations. Often yield is highest when the aircraft is full of nonstop/point to point flyers. Connecting passengers normally reduce flight yield, so an airline like WN would ideally want to fly only routes with high O&D. So large stations that have a wealth of routes with high O&D often have higher yields since they don't need to fill the plane with connecting passengers. Smaller stations need to put connecting passengers somewhere since they don't have enough direct demand to fill the planes. Does WN pull out if there are no high demand O&D routes for a small station even if the planes are full with connecting traffic? Maybe. Do they move those aircraft to a highly competitive big station with more O&D demand but maybe the aircraft won't be as full? Maybe. Everyone like to say a flight is always packed to the gills, but airlines like WN want them packed to the gills with O&D traffic. WN doesn't want to invest in the airplane to fly a long PVD-LAS flight full of connecting passengers, even if its the only way to get passenger to points beyond LAS. They'd rather have you take a short PVD-BWI flight loaded with a lot of O&D and connect to BWI-XXX, also full of O&D.

WN keeps adjusting its schedules trying to maximize O&D at the sacrifice of full connecting flights. They are not overly interested in adding flights to hub so passengers can connect to lots of other places. Connections are fine to top off the plane as long as it carries a who lot of O&D.
 
USAirALB
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:17 pm

One thing that interests me is that when WN started service to ALB/PVD/BUF/MHT/BDL, all of the stations received service to the WN's Western focus cities. ALB got LAS, and I believe every other station got service to both LAS and PHX.

Most of these were flown for 10-12 years, and then were slowly discontinued. PHX-BUF remains, as does LAS-BUF/BDL. WN discontinued ALB-LAS about a year ago, but they are resuming the flight this fall. WN also started DEN-ALB/BDL.

What caused most of these flights to be disconinued? Was it the long stage length combined with general low-yield? I seem to recall that LAS-ALB/PVD sometimes ran on 733s.
RJ85, F70, E135, E140, E145, E70, E75, E90, CR2, CR7, CR9, 717, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 744ER, 752, 753, 762, 772, 77E, 77W, 789, 319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 343, 359, 388
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:35 pm

USAirALB wrote:
One thing that interests me is that when WN started service to ALB/PVD/BUF/MHT/BDL, all of the stations received service to the WN's Western focus cities. ALB got LAS, and I believe every other station got service to both LAS and PHX.

Most of these were flown for 10-12 years, and then were slowly discontinued. PHX-BUF remains, as does LAS-BUF/BDL. WN discontinued ALB-LAS about a year ago, but they are resuming the flight this fall. WN also started DEN-ALB/BDL.

What caused most of these flights to be disconinued? Was it the long stage length combined with general low-yield? I seem to recall that LAS-ALB/PVD sometimes ran on 733s.

I would guess that when those routes were flown, fuel was cheaper and WN offered significantly lower fares, stimulating the O&D market. As fares went up, that market stimulation faded. I suspect if you looked at the numbers, BUF-PHX/LAS and BDL-LAS have higher O&D on the routes than did ALB-LAS at the end, even if the flights are not more full.
 
flydulles
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:02 pm

When tommrow likely will they have new schedule out?
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:17 pm

flydulles wrote:
When tommrow likely will they have new schedule out?

Usually loads up around 0500 central (Herb Time).

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
flydulles
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:44 pm

Flyguy So if I log on about 7am -9-am eastern everything will be added?
 
evank516
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:55 pm

lat41 wrote:
WNflyer1523 wrote:
If WN decides to add eastern destinations from LAS, I could maybe see ISP and PVD.

WN had a PVD LAS a few years back and they discontinued it. Before PVD added 1700' to the main runway, there were occasional weight problems in sweltering weather (like today) or contaminated runway days for the 2358 mile flight on the 73G. WN claimed too many passengers using LAS for a connecting point for lower cost West Coast destinations rather than point to point travel. Southwest must have wanted more yield from that always full flight.

Sometimes it's harder to get a flight back that was lost than a brand new startup.


The same would probably still go for ISP who's runways have not been extended in many years. What's the PDEW for ISP-LAS anyway? Can we account for JFK/LGA-LAS in that count?
 
WNflyer1523
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:41 pm

evank516 wrote:
lat41 wrote:
WNflyer1523 wrote:
If WN decides to add eastern destinations from LAS, I could maybe see ISP and PVD.

WN had a PVD LAS a few years back and they discontinued it. Before PVD added 1700' to the main runway, there were occasional weight problems in sweltering weather (like today) or contaminated runway days for the 2358 mile flight on the 73G. WN claimed too many passengers using LAS for a connecting point for lower cost West Coast destinations rather than point to point travel. Southwest must have wanted more yield from that always full flight.

Sometimes it's harder to get a flight back that was lost than a brand new startup.


The same would probably still go for ISP who's runways have not been extended in many years. What's the PDEW for ISP-LAS anyway? Can we account for JFK/LGA-LAS in that count?

Whatever the PDEW is for ISP-LAS, it’s probably lower than it would be if there were nonstop flights. Many LIers say they want back the nonstop to LAS, and they currently have to drive to JFK.
 
dbo861
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:43 pm

jplatts wrote:
dbo861 wrote:
Is that 5,576 number LAX-SEA specifically, or the enter LA basin to SEA? If you're including both Dallas airports-LAX in your justification above, it's only fair you compare all LA airports-SEA, which tomorrow alone AS has 28 flights in each direction between SEA and ONT/SNA/LAX/BUR, DL has 15. It's a huge market, but there's also ALOT of competition (5 airlines if you include B6, over 50 flights per day between the two cities) so I think it's unlikely Southwest jumps in. But you're right, it's possible they COULD possibly add LAX-SEA, just like the all the other routes you've suggested they COULD add with this schedule release..and like you do with every WN schedule release thread.


The 5,576 number is only on LAX-SEA and doesn't include BUR-SEA, LGB-SEA, ONT-SEA, or SNA-SEA. The average number of passengers per day on SEA-LAX/BUR/LGB/ONT/SNA was 9,418 passengers per day in Q3 2017

The average number of passengers per day between Greater Los Angeles and the DFW Metroplex (all 5 Greater LA Airports plus both DFW and DAL in the DFW Metroplex included) was 6,350 passengers per day in Q3 2017.

VX used to serve SEA nonstop from LAX prior to the AS-VX merger and the discontinuation of the VX brand, and the 5,576 number includes travel on the VX LAX-SEA nonstops. There is room for additional competition on LAX-SEA with Virgin America no longer around.


I really think if WN thought they could make this route, they’d already be flying it. Just because there’s over 5,000 pdew doesn’t mean there’s room for another carrier. UA only flies 2xE175 despite having a hub at LAX and as you pointed out, Spirit wasn’t able to make it work. Sure WN could go in and try to siphon some passengers from AS’ hourly flights and the other airlines’ multiple frequencies, but with all the competition they’d probably lose money on the route and there’s better use of their aircraft elsewhere.
 
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SteveXC500
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 5:32 pm

jplatts wrote:
dolphinflyer wrote:
The poster in question employs zero strategy. WN "could" add any route they wish, but they don't. There's no sense of sound network strategy. It's like throwing darts at the wall - blindfolded. Maddening...




What constitutes a sound network strategy vs. throwing darts at the wall? WN has a different network strategy from AA and UA since AA and UA usually only operate nonstop routes to or from their hubs, whereas WN has many point-to-point nonstop routes that do not touch the 20 largest WN stations.


What constitutes strategy on your part is actual knowledge of how WN employs their strategy and then basing your "guesses" or questions about what routes may be announced off of their strategy.
 
Jshank83
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 6:47 pm

flydulles wrote:
Flyguy So if I log on about 7am -9-am eastern everything will be added?


Last update was delayed longer. But they usually are up by then.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 7:37 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
flydulles wrote:
Flyguy So if I log on about 7am -9-am eastern everything will be added?


Last update was delayed longer. But they usually are up by then.


Yep unless they have some additional NEW service announcements everything usually starts to up load by 0500 central.
I don't know if the new OneRes system changes the roll out times. Just going off past extensions.
New cities announcements tend to be on separate releases with all the typical WN hoopla.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 7:46 pm

fraspotter wrote:
Already served by WN (barely) but would be nice if they stopped neglecting RIC with some new routes that don't rely on ATL so much.


Wonder if WN will try to compete with G4 on BNA-RIC
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
N383SW
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 7:51 pm

barney captain wrote:
For shits and gigs I skimmed through this thread and came up with a list of every route you say Southwest COULD add this cycle: LAS-ISP, LAS-CVG, HOU-PUJ, HOU-CVG/CLE/DTW/MSP/ONT/SFO, Anchorage service, CVG-PHX/MCO, RIC-MDW, CRP-DAL although you say it's unlikely we'll see GEG-CRP, ISP-BNA/STL, LAX-CLE, LAX-CMH, LAX-SEA, LAX-IAD, OAK-RDU, OAK-IAD, SAN-BOS, SAN-MSP, SAN-OMA, SJC-RDU, and SJC-IAD. I mean, hey, if you throw out enough city pairs, you're bound to be right eventually..


Maddening isn't it? It's enough to make you block a person.

Ehem.


Seriously!! It's enough to make you want to drink or medicate yourself! How do you avoid seeing said posts?
 
uconn99
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:00 pm

USAirALB wrote:
One thing that interests me is that when WN started service to ALB/PVD/BUF/MHT/BDL, all of the stations received service to the WN's Western focus cities. ALB got LAS, and I believe every other station got service to both LAS and PHX.

Most of these were flown for 10-12 years, and then were slowly discontinued. PHX-BUF remains, as does LAS-BUF/BDL. WN discontinued ALB-LAS about a year ago, but they are resuming the flight this fall. WN also started DEN-ALB/BDL.

What caused most of these flights to be disconinued? Was it the long stage length combined with general low-yield? I seem to recall that LAS-ALB/PVD sometimes ran on 733s.


When WN started service at BDL in 1999, neither PHX or LAS was offered. WN has never flown PHX from BDL and LAS was just added around 5 years ago I believe and has been seasonal for the past couple years. The only flights WN has canceled from BDL is BNA, ATL, and PHL.
 
Balloonchaser
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:09 pm

uconn99 wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
One thing that interests me is that when WN started service to ALB/PVD/BUF/MHT/BDL, all of the stations received service to the WN's Western focus cities. ALB got LAS, and I believe every other station got service to both LAS and PHX.

Most of these were flown for 10-12 years, and then were slowly discontinued. PHX-BUF remains, as does LAS-BUF/BDL. WN discontinued ALB-LAS about a year ago, but they are resuming the flight this fall. WN also started DEN-ALB/BDL.

What caused most of these flights to be disconinued? Was it the long stage length combined with general low-yield? I seem to recall that LAS-ALB/PVD sometimes ran on 733s.


When WN started service at BDL in 1999, neither PHX or LAS was offered. WN has never flown PHX from BDL and LAS was just added around 5 years ago I believe and has been seasonal for the past couple years. The only flights WN has canceled from BDL is BNA, ATL, and PHL.


I feel like WN cut a lot of BNA-### Routes.. BNA-ISP/BDL/PVD, etc
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:27 pm

SteveXC500 wrote:
What constitutes strategy on your part is actual knowledge of how WN employs their strategy and then basing your "guesses" or questions about what routes may be announced off of their strategy.

Well said! Whatever it means.... :hyper:
 
jwvw89
Posts: 39
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:28 pm

N383SW wrote:
barney captain wrote:
For shits and gigs I skimmed through this thread and came up with a list of every route you say Southwest COULD add this cycle: LAS-ISP, LAS-CVG, HOU-PUJ, HOU-CVG/CLE/DTW/MSP/ONT/SFO, Anchorage service, CVG-PHX/MCO, RIC-MDW, CRP-DAL although you say it's unlikely we'll see GEG-CRP, ISP-BNA/STL, LAX-CLE, LAX-CMH, LAX-SEA, LAX-IAD, OAK-RDU, OAK-IAD, SAN-BOS, SAN-MSP, SAN-OMA, SJC-RDU, and SJC-IAD. I mean, hey, if you throw out enough city pairs, you're bound to be right eventually..


Maddening isn't it? It's enough to make you block a person.

Ehem.


Seriously!! It's enough to make you want to drink or medicate yourself! How do you avoid seeing said posts?


If anyone finds a way to avoid seeing posts from certain users, please share! These posts make me want to throw my laptop against the wall! Could WN add BOI-ROC, ISP, GRU, BOM, CPT? :roll:
 
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LotsaRunway
Posts: 385
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:29 pm

Balloonchaser wrote:
uconn99 wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
One thing that interests me is that when WN started service to ALB/PVD/BUF/MHT/BDL, all of the stations received service to the WN's Western focus cities. ALB got LAS, and I believe every other station got service to both LAS and PHX.

Most of these were flown for 10-12 years, and then were slowly discontinued. PHX-BUF remains, as does LAS-BUF/BDL. WN discontinued ALB-LAS about a year ago, but they are resuming the flight this fall. WN also started DEN-ALB/BDL.

What caused most of these flights to be disconinued? Was it the long stage length combined with general low-yield? I seem to recall that LAS-ALB/PVD sometimes ran on 733s.


When WN started service at BDL in 1999, neither PHX or LAS was offered. WN has never flown PHX from BDL and LAS was just added around 5 years ago I believe and has been seasonal for the past couple years. The only flights WN has canceled from BDL is BNA, ATL, and PHL.


I feel like WN cut a lot of BNA-### Routes.. BNA-ISP/BDL/PVD, etc

Yes, WN connected a lot of passengers through BNA and not enough of them were going to BNA.
 
jplatts
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:31 pm

jwvw89 wrote:
Could WN add BOI-ROC, ISP, GRU, BOM, CPT?


I do not expect WN to add BOI-ROC or BOI-ISP, even though WN already serves BOI, ROC, and ISP. I also do not expect WN to serve GRU, BOM, or CPT anytime soon since these three airports are too far from the U.S. for WN to even consider serving these airports.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:39 pm

jwvw89 wrote:
N383SW wrote:
barney captain wrote:

Maddening isn't it? It's enough to make you block a person.

Ehem.


Seriously!! It's enough to make you want to drink or medicate yourself! How do you avoid seeing said posts?


If anyone finds a way to avoid seeing posts from certain users, please share! These posts make me want to throw my laptop against the wall! Could WN add BOI-ROC, ISP, GRU, BOM, CPT? :roll:
You don't see posts from any user that you make a "foe".
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
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fraspotter
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:41 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
fraspotter wrote:
Already served by WN (barely) but would be nice if they stopped neglecting RIC with some new routes that don't rely on ATL so much.


Wonder if WN will try to compete with G4 on BNA-RIC


Personally I'd prefer STL or MDW but anything is better than solely relying on ATL all the time.
"The strength of the turbulence is directly proportional to the temperature of your coffee."

— Gunter's Second Law of Air Travel
 
DeltaRules
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:48 pm

jbmitt wrote:
jplatts wrote:
The top destinations in the contiguous U.S. traveled to from LAX that WN doesn't currently serve nonstop from LAX include SEA, EWR, BOS, MCO, IAD, MSP, PHL, DTW, CLE, RDU, CVG, CLT, and CMH. Of these destinations, the routes that WN would most likely add out of LAX if WN adds new nonstop routes out of LAX would be LAX-CLE, LAX-CMH, LAX-SEA, and LAX-IAD.

There are still some more additional nonstop routes that WN could add out of California airports in order to strengthen its position against AS in California, including LAX-SEA, LAX-IAD, OAK-RDU, OAK-IAD, SAN-BOS, SAN-MSP, SAN-OMA, SJC-RDU, and SJC-IAD.

Will WN announce any new nonstop routes out of California on Thursday, and if so, which nonstop routes out of California is WN likely to announce on Thursday?


Why would WN want to be the 3rd carrier on LAX - CMH. I believe that AA just announced double daily.


AA announced a morning flight to go along with their existing afternoon flight and DL's daily so, yes.
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Jshank83
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:50 pm

Since it is fun to guess on predictions, I might as well.

STL-JAX I think is the most likely if STL gets an add.
Other more likely options for STL are RIC/ORF or INTL
More of a wild card picks for STL, IND/MEM/SDF/BUF - These 4 I am mainly putting because there have been airport officials recently from one side or the other saying they want service on the route, I wouldn't say I see them as likely though.
WN could always add a random leg to STL but those are too hard to predict, imo.
 
evank516
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:56 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
Since it is fun to guess on predictions, I might as well.

STL-JAX I think is the most likely if STL gets an add.
Other more likely options for STL are RIC/ORF or INTL
More of a wild card picks for STL, IND/MEM/SDF/BUF - These 4 I am mainly putting because there have been airport officials recently from one side or the other saying they want service on the route, I wouldn't say I see them as likely though.
WN could always add a random leg to STL but those are too hard to predict, imo.


I'm surprised STL-JAX hasn't been added yet to be honest. Heck even PNS has some level of service to STL (and MCI too). Speaking of MCI, The last extension really calibrated the timing of the existing and second LGA-MCI flight to be friendly for originating passengers on both ends. Hopefully that continues in the next release.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 3597
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:58 pm

evank516 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
Since it is fun to guess on predictions, I might as well.

STL-JAX I think is the most likely if STL gets an add.
Other more likely options for STL are RIC/ORF or INTL
More of a wild card picks for STL, IND/MEM/SDF/BUF - These 4 I am mainly putting because there have been airport officials recently from one side or the other saying they want service on the route, I wouldn't say I see them as likely though.
WN could always add a random leg to STL but those are too hard to predict, imo.


I'm surprised STL-JAX hasn't been added yet to be honest. Heck even PNS has some level of service to STL (and MCI too).


I am thinking now that F9 added it that WN will go ahead and add it and push them off (which isn't hard to do). Until F9 added it, it was the highest PDEW from STL not served. This seems like the extension to do it if they are going to.
 
MDW22L31C
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:59 pm

SFO-ONT would be nice. I fly ONT-OAK-ONT weekly never a empty seat.
 
czek6
Posts: 182
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:14 pm

It would be nice to see some real growth and expansion return to BWI. I feel like WN has been stagnant to negative and basically just letting it ride.

More international destinations would be great as well as service to Syracuse, Roanoke, and maybe even Stewart, all with minimum service.
 
WNflyer1523
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:16 pm

I feel like before every extension, we get all hyped up and when the extension occurs, changes/additions are usually very little.
 
dolphinflyer
Posts: 311
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:34 pm

jplatts wrote:
jwvw89 wrote:
Could WN add BOI-ROC, ISP, GRU, BOM, CPT?


I do not expect WN to add BOI-ROC or BOI-ISP, even though WN already serves BOI, ROC, and ISP. I also do not expect WN to serve GRU, BOM, or CPT anytime soon since these three airports are too far from the U.S. for WN to even consider serving these airports.


:banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:
 
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barney captain
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:37 pm

Click on user name - add foe. Posts now hidden.
Southeast Of Disorder
 
dbo861
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:50 pm

WNflyer1523 wrote:
I feel like before every extension, we get all hyped up and when the extension occurs, changes/additions are usually very little.


Exactly! Also consider, Boeing has slowed 738MAX deliveries due to engine supplier issues and WN should start Hawaii by next spring so they're probably keeping some slack in the fleet for those routes.

This is the spring break extension so maybe some vacationy/warm weather destinations and seasonal, less than daily adds, but I doubt we'll see much more than that.

barney captain wrote:
Click on user name - add foe. Posts now hidden.

I wish this forum allowed you to "Like" posts..
 
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fraspotter
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:16 pm

post deleted.
Last edited by fraspotter on Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"The strength of the turbulence is directly proportional to the temperature of your coffee."

— Gunter's Second Law of Air Travel
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:18 pm

evank516 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
Since it is fun to guess on predictions, I might as well.

STL-JAX I think is the most likely if STL gets an add.
Other more likely options for STL are RIC/ORF or INTL
More of a wild card picks for STL, IND/MEM/SDF/BUF - These 4 I am mainly putting because there have been airport officials recently from one side or the other saying they want service on the route, I wouldn't say I see them as likely though.
WN could always add a random leg to STL but those are too hard to predict, imo.


I'm surprised STL-JAX hasn't been added yet to be honest. Heck even PNS has some level of service to STL (and MCI too). Speaking of MCI, The last extension really calibrated the timing of the existing and second LGA-MCI flight to be friendly for originating passengers on both ends. Hopefully that continues in the next release.


I think the problem is more WN’s weakness in JAX than anything on the STL end. AA always had reasonable success with the route, probably helped some by A-B traffic.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Upcoming WN schedule extension on 8/30

Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:20 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
Balloonchaser wrote:
uconn99 wrote:

When WN started service at BDL in 1999, neither PHX or LAS was offered. WN has never flown PHX from BDL and LAS was just added around 5 years ago I believe and has been seasonal for the past couple years. The only flights WN has canceled from BDL is BNA, ATL, and PHL.


I feel like WN cut a lot of BNA-### Routes.. BNA-ISP/BDL/PVD, etc

Yes, WN connected a lot of passengers through BNA and not enough of them were going to BNA.


Yes, though BNA’s passenger numbers and O&D numbers generally are higher than ever before, so I don’t know that past failure precludes future success. BDL is probably the most likely of the lot.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more

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