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Zoedyn
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US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:20 am

The Japanese government plans to release roughly 39,000 additional Haneda frequencies for international flights ahead of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics as part of an effort to boost international visitors to the country above 40 million annually

While the exact number of frequencies is yet to be determined, daytime slots that are evenly split between Japanese and US carriers are anticipated

Interesting to watch how many of the frequencies will go to the Japan-US market, and how they will get further allocated among US carriers by DOT

Also noteworthy how this would impact the competition dynamics with Tokyo's two major airports on intercontinental longhaul flying

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... sa-451381/
 
jfk777
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:40 am

AA will probably seek a DFW to Haneda slot, they fly two DFW to NRT daily. United will probably seek ORD, LAX and/or EWR slots. Delta with two flights already will probably seek HND slots from two important hubs, DTW & ATL.

From Europe, will Finnair finally say aribaderchi to NRT and move all its flights to HND ? Will BA move their NRT flights to HND for double daily to HND ? Could Virgin return to Tokyo at HND ? Could KLM finally move out of NRT, why should AF be the only AF/KLM airline at HND ?

SO many possibilities but what geat problems to have.
 
splitterz
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 12:01 pm

I’d love to see an EWR-HND on United. NH already flies a ORD-HND. I think it’d work well for them.
 
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SuseJ772
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 12:03 pm

Can’t wait. I am really hoping to go to these games. The increased supply will hopefully keep fares reasonable.
Currently at PIE, requesting FWA >> >>
 
osupoke07
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 12:12 pm

Assuming a frequency is one movement and the 39,000 frequency number is an annual amount, that works out to 53.4 daily slot pairs to be awarded. (39,000 / 365 / 2)

Obviously at least half of those are going to ANA and JAL, so that leaves at most 26-27 daily slot pairs for international carriers. It seems that there should be enough supply for each of the US 3 to add multiple flights and still allow the European and Asian airlines increased access as well.
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lavalampluva
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 12:42 pm

jfk777 wrote:
AA will probably seek a DFW to Haneda slot, they fly two DFW to NRT daily. United will probably seek ORD, LAX and/or EWR slots. Delta with two flights already will probably seek HND slots from two important hubs, DTW & ATL.

From Europe, will Finnair finally say aribaderchi to NRT and move all its flights to HND ? Will BA move their NRT flights to HND for double daily to HND ? Could Virgin return to Tokyo at HND ? Could KLM finally move out of NRT, why should AF be the only AF/KLM airline at HND ?

SO many possibilities but what geat problems to have.

DL tried HND from DTW, it didn't work out well for them. But seems to be functioning better from MSP. Slots are pretty tight into the HND market to begin with, not sure of the Japanese market will ease up at least for the run of the Olympics.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
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klm617
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 12:50 pm

lavalampluva wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
AA will probably seek a DFW to Haneda slot, they fly two DFW to NRT daily. United will probably seek ORD, LAX and/or EWR slots. Delta with two flights already will probably seek HND slots from two important hubs, DTW & ATL.

From Europe, will Finnair finally say aribaderchi to NRT and move all its flights to HND ? Will BA move their NRT flights to HND for double daily to HND ? Could Virgin return to Tokyo at HND ? Could KLM finally move out of NRT, why should AF be the only AF/KLM airline at HND ?

SO many possibilities but what geat problems to have.

DL tried HND from DTW, it didn't work out well for them. But seems to be functioning better from MSP. Slots are pretty tight into the HND market to begin with, not sure of the Japanese market will ease up at least for the run of the Olympics.



Because when DL was awarded HND slots to DTW they were horrible arrival and departure slots. We really don't know how well MSP-HND is doing because Delta can't afford to drop the route and lose those valuable slots. Not saying DTW will work out but it has a better chance in the current environment with the A350 all it had before was a 744 and a weight restricted A332. None being ideal for the route. For Delta I see the front runners as SEA and JFK
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zakuivcustom
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 12:52 pm

lavalampluva wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
AA will probably seek a DFW to Haneda slot, they fly two DFW to NRT daily. United will probably seek ORD, LAX and/or EWR slots. Delta with two flights already will probably seek HND slots from two important hubs, DTW & ATL.

From Europe, will Finnair finally say aribaderchi to NRT and move all its flights to HND ? Will BA move their NRT flights to HND for double daily to HND ? Could Virgin return to Tokyo at HND ? Could KLM finally move out of NRT, why should AF be the only AF/KLM airline at HND ?

SO many possibilities but what geat problems to have.

DL tried HND from DTW, it didn't work out well for them. But seems to be functioning better from MSP. Slots are pretty tight into the HND market to begin with, not sure of the Japanese market will ease up at least for the run of the Olympics.


Wasn't the DTW-HND flight back when there are only midnight slots for long-hauls? The time was awful and thus, unpopular. Most HND long-haul flights didn't do too well back then anyway.

Otherwise - Europe carriers (i.e. AY and KL) are probably going to fight hard for HND slots. I can see DL trying to get HND slots for SEA also. AA DFW-HND (and keep one at NRT), UA moving its EWR flight to HND. Perhaps a return of HND-HNL on JL. Some Chinese carriers may fight for additional HND slots also.

Many possibilities, and there will never be enough slots.
 
Airlines0613
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 12:56 pm

I would love to see a IAH-HND flight from either NH or UA.
 
kavok
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 1:07 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
lavalampluva wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
AA will probably seek a DFW to Haneda slot, they fly two DFW to NRT daily. United will probably seek ORD, LAX and/or EWR slots. Delta with two flights already will probably seek HND slots from two important hubs, DTW & ATL.

From Europe, will Finnair finally say aribaderchi to NRT and move all its flights to HND ? Will BA move their NRT flights to HND for double daily to HND ? Could Virgin return to Tokyo at HND ? Could KLM finally move out of NRT, why should AF be the only AF/KLM airline at HND ?

SO many possibilities but what geat problems to have.

DL tried HND from DTW, it didn't work out well for them. But seems to be functioning better from MSP. Slots are pretty tight into the HND market to begin with, not sure of the Japanese market will ease up at least for the run of the Olympics.


Wasn't the DTW-HND flight back when there are only midnight slots for long-hauls? The time was awful and thus, unpopular. Most HND long-haul flights didn't do too well back then anyway.

Otherwise - Europe carriers (i.e. AY and KL) are probably going to fight hard for HND slots. I can see DL trying to get HND slots for SEA also. AA DFW-HND (and keep one at NRT), UA moving its EWR flight to HND. Perhaps a return of HND-HNL on JL. Some Chinese carriers may fight for additional HND slots also.

Many possibilities, and there will never be enough slots.



Correct, DL tried both DTW and SEA but as you mentioned, with it being limited to midnight slots, the better timed NRT option was still more popular.

Assuming these new slots could be used at more favorable times, I expect DL to lobby hard for SEA/ATL/DTW slots. If all three are awarded, that could be the final blow for the former NRT hub.

As mentioned AA & UA will lobby hard for a few cities as well. It will be interesting to see how much the DOT favors DL (and HA) over those two (if at all) because of the AA/UA JVs with the Japanese carriers.
 
ScottB
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:44 pm

kavok wrote:
Assuming these new slots could be used at more favorable times, I expect DL to lobby hard for SEA/ATL/DTW slots. If all three are awarded, that could be the final blow for the former NRT hub.


If any significant number of daytime U.S.-HND slots are awarded, the DL hub at NRT is done anyway. AA & UA will be able to increase their connectivity with JL & NH, respectively, at HND. And with the joint venture with KE moving forward, DL has no need for a hub at NRT.
 
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:53 pm

Delta with JFK-HND?
 
dergay
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:56 pm

Zoedyn wrote:
The Japanese government plans to release roughly 39,000 additional Haneda frequencies for international flights ahead of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics as part of an effort to boost international visitors to the country above 40 million annually

While the exact number of frequencies is yet to be determined, daytime slots that are evenly split between Japanese and US carriers are anticipated

Interesting to watch how many of the frequencies will go to the Japan-US market, and how they will get further allocated among US carriers by DOT

Also noteworthy how this would impact the competition dynamics with Tokyo's two major airports on intercontinental longhaul flying

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... sa-451381/



Will these be available in time for the World Cup (Rugby) that takes place in Japan in September 2019? :redflag:
Flown on A300,A310,A318,A319,A320,A321,A330,B707,B720,B727,B737,B747,B757,B767,L382,L1011,C5,DC-3,DC8,
 
codc10
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:58 pm

EWR-HND is next on the list for UA if slots come up. LAX/ORD already have NH HND service. I'd expect applications for EWR, IAD, IAH, LAX in that order, possibly in conjunction with NH.
 
GSP psgr
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:59 pm

Thoughts on whether DL would actually prefer a slot for JFK-HND over SEA/ATL/DTW? I keep thinking that DL could probably talk DOT into moving the MSP slot to DTW in the discussions of the next set of HND allocations, and still have the traffic to make a 6w DTW-NRT service work alongside HND. Guesses as to what everyone wants if they only got one more slot pair: UA-EWR, AA-DFW, DL-JFK. I'd guess JL wants to add ORD and LAX, NH plus SEA and SFO or IAH.
 
pabloeing
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 3:04 pm

IB daily to NRT
 
evank516
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 3:15 pm

GSP psgr wrote:
Thoughts on whether DL would actually prefer a slot for JFK-HND over SEA/ATL/DTW? I keep thinking that DL could probably talk DOT into moving the MSP slot to DTW in the discussions of the next set of HND allocations, and still have the traffic to make a 6w DTW-NRT service work alongside HND. Guesses as to what everyone wants if they only got one more slot pair: UA-EWR, AA-DFW, DL-JFK. I'd guess JL wants to add ORD and LAX, NH plus SEA and SFO or IAH.


I have to wonder whether DL would want to fly JFK-HND by themselves or just funnel everyone through ICN with the DL/KE JV. They did fly JFK-NRT at one point, but I'm not sure if that was dropped as they started dismantling the NRT hub or because it just wasn't working. I doubt they'd want to do DTW again, at least for now after recently dropping it, maybe ATL? Hmm, what about SLC?
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 3:21 pm

evank516 wrote:
GSP psgr wrote:
Thoughts on whether DL would actually prefer a slot for JFK-HND over SEA/ATL/DTW? I keep thinking that DL could probably talk DOT into moving the MSP slot to DTW in the discussions of the next set of HND allocations, and still have the traffic to make a 6w DTW-NRT service work alongside HND. Guesses as to what everyone wants if they only got one more slot pair: UA-EWR, AA-DFW, DL-JFK. I'd guess JL wants to add ORD and LAX, NH plus SEA and SFO or IAH.


I have to wonder whether DL would want to fly JFK-HND by themselves or just funnel everyone through ICN with the DL/KE JV. They did fly JFK-NRT at one point, but I'm not sure if that was dropped as they started dismantling the NRT hub or because it just wasn't working. I doubt they'd want to do DTW again, at least for now after recently dropping it, maybe ATL? Hmm, what about SLC?


They only dropped it because of the time restrictions.

DTW-Japan is a much larger local market than ATL-Japan. I also don’t think there is much doubt that DTW-Asia is more profitable with the possible exception of Korea.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 3:24 pm

[*]
Airlines0613 wrote:
I would love to see a IAH-HND flight from either NH or UA.


Me too but I can’t imagine it would come before EWR.

I’d venture that overtime IAH and IAD will get HND slots.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
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LAXintl
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 3:27 pm

US side at best will only get a handful of flights.

Many other nations have been promised and are on waiting list to enter HND for their national carries also such as Finland, Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, UAE plus wider access for ASEAN block.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
sincx
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 4:10 pm

LAXintl wrote:
US side at best will only get a handful of flights.

Many other nations have been promised and are on waiting list to enter HND for their national carries also such as Finland, Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, UAE plus wider access for ASEAN block.


I agree. I'm guessing there will be at most 4 daily slot pairs for US carriers.

UA will ask for and probably get EWR. UA might also ask for ORD/IAD but probably won't get it.
DL will ask for and probably get DTW. ATL would be nice, but I don't see it happening.
AA will ask for and probably get DFW.
HA might ask for a second daily HNL flight, but that doesn't seem like a good use of slots.

Unlikely but would be funny: UA asking for HND-GUM.
Unlikely but could be interesting: if there's another night-time-only slot, I think there's a chance UA might try an evening departure, evening arrival SFO-HND again, as a second-daily.
 
lavalampluva
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 4:16 pm

GSP psgr wrote:
Thoughts on whether DL would actually prefer a slot for JFK-HND over SEA/ATL/DTW? I keep thinking that DL could probably talk DOT into moving the MSP slot to DTW in the discussions of the next set of HND allocations, and still have the traffic to make a 6w DTW-NRT service work alongside HND. Guesses as to what everyone wants if they only got one more slot pair: UA-EWR, AA-DFW, DL-JFK. I'd guess JL wants to add ORD and LAX, NH plus SEA and SFO or IAH.


If I read that correctly I gather you feel that DL should move the HND slot from MSP to DTW. So then DL would have both a flight to HND and NRT?
If so please explain to the class why you think that would be advantageous.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 4:18 pm

evank516 wrote:
Hmm, what about SLC?


Umm, no. There can't be much demand for SLC-HND with no connection partners. PDEWs SLC-TYO?
 
MastaHanky
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 4:31 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Umm, no. There can't be much demand for SLC-HND with no connection partners. PDEWs SLC-TYO?


34 PDEW. Definitely not going to be SLC.
 
kavok
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 4:50 pm

I don’t believe DL will “initially” ask to move the MSP-HND slot. As mentioned, I see DL requesting DTW,SEA,ATL in that order.

Game theory reasons being:
- DL will almost certainly get at least one of the slots, which would go to DTW (and would be very easy for DL to justify). It is important for DL to have a strong case (which DTW provides) to justify why SEA was made the #2 choice and not #1 (for reasons below).
- Assuming there are only a handful of slots, getting a second slot will be very difficult and competitive. So DL will have to make a strong case. The argument DL will then make is that because (I am assuming) one of the Japanese carriers was also awarded HND-SEA, DL needs that last USDOT slot to SEA be able to compete with the Japanese Carriers. And in truth, this may be a strong enough case to award DL that last slot over UA/AA.
-At number three ATL is a long shot, but you can’t win if don’t play the game.

Now, assuming DL gets both HND-DTW/SEA, and also assuming DFW-HND is also awarded to AA, a few months afterward DL will ask the DOT to switch the MSP-HND frequency to ATL because the Midwest is now covered (DTW/ORD on others) and the SE USA isn’t, and because DFW now has service AA’s claim to the MSP slot is void.

So again, I think DL will ask for DTW, SEA, ATL in that order, get the first two, and switch MSP to ATL a few months later.
 
GSP psgr
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 4:55 pm

lavalampluva wrote:
GSP psgr wrote:
Thoughts on whether DL would actually prefer a slot for JFK-HND over SEA/ATL/DTW? I keep thinking that DL could probably talk DOT into moving the MSP slot to DTW in the discussions of the next set of HND allocations, and still have the traffic to make a 6w DTW-NRT service work alongside HND. Guesses as to what everyone wants if they only got one more slot pair: UA-EWR, AA-DFW, DL-JFK. I'd guess JL wants to add ORD and LAX, NH plus SEA and SFO or IAH.


If I read that correctly I gather you feel that DL should move the HND slot from MSP to DTW. So then DL would have both a flight to HND and NRT?
If so please explain to the class why you think that would be advantageous.


Advantageous because MSP is probably better suited to NRT, where DL can better connect passengers. DTW has a bigger local O&D traffic base to Tokyo, and can probably support a double daily level of service (NW did with much bigger aircraft way back when) on a pair of smaller twins. Most connections offered over MSP are offered by DTW, and in particular, a fair number of Southeastern automotive markets are much better connected to DTW than MSP.
 
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teme82
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 5:29 pm

I think that AY will obtain slots to HND before any US carriers get additional slots. ;)
Flying high and low
 
gwrudolph
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 5:47 pm

This time around may be very interesting and different than last time. Last time, UA and DL were still operating NRT hubs, so incremental JP flying might have made more sense. Now that they effectively have no hubs at NRT, I guess it comes down to swapping out NRT with HND services because they now have little to lose in splitting their operations.
 
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enilria
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 5:54 pm

lavalampluva wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
AA will probably seek a DFW to Haneda slot, they fly two DFW to NRT daily. United will probably seek ORD, LAX and/or EWR slots. Delta with two flights already will probably seek HND slots from two important hubs, DTW & ATL.

From Europe, will Finnair finally say aribaderchi to NRT and move all its flights to HND ? Will BA move their NRT flights to HND for double daily to HND ? Could Virgin return to Tokyo at HND ? Could KLM finally move out of NRT, why should AF be the only AF/KLM airline at HND ?

SO many possibilities but what geat problems to have.

DL tried HND from DTW, it didn't work out well for them. But seems to be functioning better from MSP. Slots are pretty tight into the HND market to begin with, not sure of the Japanese market will ease up at least for the run of the Olympics.

klm617 wrote:
Because when DL was awarded HND slots to DTW they were horrible arrival and departure slots. We really don't know how well MSP-HND is doing because Delta can't afford to drop the route and lose those valuable slots. Not saying DTW will work out but it has a better chance in the current environment with the A350 all it had before was a 744 and a weight restricted A332. None being ideal for the route. For Delta I see the front runners as SEA and JFK

kavok wrote:
I don’t believe DL will “initially” ask to move the MSP-HND slot. As mentioned, I see DL requesting DTW,SEA,ATL in that order.

Game theory reasons being:
- DL will almost certainly get at least one of the slots, which would go to DTW (and would be very easy for DL to justify). It is important for DL to have a strong case (which DTW provides) to justify why SEA was made the #2 choice and not #1 (for reasons below).
- Assuming there are only a handful of slots, getting a second slot will be very difficult and competitive. So DL will have to make a strong case. The argument DL will then make is that because (I am assuming) one of the Japanese carriers was also awarded HND-SEA, DL needs that last USDOT slot to SEA be able to compete with the Japanese Carriers. And in truth, this may be a strong enough case to award DL that last slot over UA/AA.
-At number three ATL is a long shot, but you can’t win if don’t play the game.

Now, assuming DL gets both HND-DTW/SEA, and also assuming DFW-HND is also awarded to AA, a few months afterward DL will ask the DOT to switch the MSP-HND frequency to ATL because the Midwest is now covered (DTW/ORD on others) and the SE USA isn’t, and because DFW now has service AA’s claim to the MSP slot is void.

So again, I think DL will ask for DTW, SEA, ATL in that order, get the first two, and switch MSP to ATL a few months later.

Thoughts:
1) I believe DL has done much better in HND when they simultaneously ended NRT service, as opposed to trying to run both which has been a disaster. For why, see #3.
2) The DOT data shows that MSPHND has performed worse than MSPNRT did. You might think this is perplexing, but that brings us to #3.
3) Because DL has still had whatever pieces were left of its hub in NRT, DL has made ZERO effort to communicate to customers what HND is. People know NRT and I think most people think HND is the far away "new" airport. Delta has been reluctant to do any kind of educational effort that says "fly to HND because NRT sucks" while they are still significant at NRT. Maybe if DL gets enough HND slots to just leave NRT completely they will finally make some effort to help people understand the benefits of HND.
4) You might ask, "Why don't AA/UA have the same troubles selling HND as DL?" I think the answer is two-fold. The obvious one is the hub in HND for AA/UA's alliance partners. Second, the Japanese customer is very familiar with HND, while the USA citizen customers are not. AA/UA alliance with the Japanese carriers means that they sell a lot more Japanese customers, whereas DL is more dependent on Americans.
 
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c933103
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 5:54 pm

dergay wrote:
Zoedyn wrote:
The Japanese government plans to release roughly 39,000 additional Haneda frequencies for international flights ahead of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics as part of an effort to boost international visitors to the country above 40 million annually

While the exact number of frequencies is yet to be determined, daytime slots that are evenly split between Japanese and US carriers are anticipated

Interesting to watch how many of the frequencies will go to the Japan-US market, and how they will get further allocated among US carriers by DOT

Also noteworthy how this would impact the competition dynamics with Tokyo's two major airports on intercontinental longhaul flying

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... sa-451381/



Will these be available in time for the World Cup (Rugby) that takes place in Japan in September 2019? :redflag:

No, they will become available from 2020 March
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lavalampluva
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:42 pm

enilria wrote:
Thoughts:
1) I believe DL has done much better in HND when they simultaneously ended NRT service, as opposed to trying to run both which has been a disaster. For why, see #3.
2) The DOT data shows that MSPHND has performed worse than MSPNRT did. You might think this is perplexing, but that brings us to #3.
3) Because DL has still had whatever pieces were left of its hub in NRT, DL has made ZERO effort to communicate to customers what HND is. People know NRT and I think most people think HND is the far away "new" airport. Delta has been reluctant to do any kind of educational effort that says "fly to HND because NRT sucks" while they are still significant at NRT. Maybe if DL gets enough HND slots to just leave NRT completely they will finally make some effort to help people understand the benefits of HND.
4) You might ask, "Why don't AA/UA have the same troubles selling HND as DL?" I think the answer is two-fold. The obvious one is the hub in HND for AA/UA's alliance partners. Second, the Japanese customer is very familiar with HND, while the USA citizen customers are not. AA/UA alliance with the Japanese carriers means that they sell a lot more Japanese customers, whereas DL is more dependent on Americans.


#3 & 4 pretty much sum it up. I feel that 99% of Americans don't even know that Tokyo has two airports let alone HND being so close to downtown Tokyo. IMO HND offers more opportunities for connections, but DL isn't partners with any of them.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
HeeseokKoo
Posts: 823
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:54 pm

sincx wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
US side at best will only get a handful of flights.

Many other nations have been promised and are on waiting list to enter HND for their national carries also such as Finland, Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, UAE plus wider access for ASEAN block.


I agree. I'm guessing there will be at most 4 daily slot pairs for US carriers.

3 or 4 is what I'm expecting, too. Among ~80 current international daytime slots out of HND, US got 10. With this rate, among 54 new slots, US will probably get 6, and once evenly divided between Japan and US sides, 3 for US carriers. With a tweet by the potus, the number may go up.

Of course previous slot distribution was different in that half went to medium and long-haul, the other half went exclusively to short-haul. To minimize disruption of afternoon NRT hub and the protest from NRT-area, I expect substantial portion of the new slots will be allocated to short distanced flights again.
 
flyfresno
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:58 pm

Do US carriers only have fifth freedom rights at NRT, or is HND part of that too? I doubt that DL would waste a HND slot on a fifth freedom flight at this point, but if they were theoretically offered an unlimited number of slots, I wonder if they would move SIN from NRT? Anyway, I agree with the people above who said DTW, SEA, ATL for DL. DFW seems like a slam dunk for AA at this point.
 
evank516
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:22 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
evank516 wrote:
Hmm, what about SLC?


Umm, no. There can't be much demand for SLC-HND with no connection partners. PDEWs SLC-TYO?


No connection partners? You realize SLC is a Delta Hub right? A rather successful hub at that.
 
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Polot
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:32 pm

evank516 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
evank516 wrote:
Hmm, what about SLC?


Umm, no. There can't be much demand for SLC-HND with no connection partners. PDEWs SLC-TYO?


No connection partners? You realize SLC is a Delta Hub right? A rather successful hub at that.

I think he meant on the HND side. The question in regards to SLC would be how many unique destinations does SLC offer over MSP, LAX, and other potential options (SEA and DTW) that also generates a lot of traffic to Tokyo. My guess is not a lot and SLC does not have the traffic to sustain on O&D, nor does DL really have the right aircraft to make it work (they need a A338/788 for the route, A332 was often weight restricted and everything else isbtoo big).

Remember DL tried SLC-NRT back when they had a NRT hub and before HND opened up to US flights. It did not last. DL are not going to waste a precious HND slot on SLC because if it doesn’t work out DL may lose the slot.
 
evank516
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:37 pm

Polot wrote:
evank516 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

Umm, no. There can't be much demand for SLC-HND with no connection partners. PDEWs SLC-TYO?


No connection partners? You realize SLC is a Delta Hub right? A rather successful hub at that.

I think he meant on the HND side. The question in regards to SLC would be how many unique destinations does SLC offer over MSP, LAX, and other potential options (SEA and DTW) that also generates a lot of traffic to Tokyo. My guess is not a lot and SLC does not have the traffic to sustain on O&D, nor does DL really have the right aircraft to make it work (they need a A338/788 for the route, A332 was often weight restricted and everything else isbtoo big).

Remember DL tried SLC-NRT back when they had a NRT hub and before HND opened up to US flights. It did not last. DL are not going to waste a precious HND slot on SLC because if it doesn’t work out DL may lose the slot.


See, my theory is that besides MSP/DTW, and with SEA not working, where else could DL make use of a new HND slot that would not garner too much competition and still be west enough. If ATL is out (my only other thought) then my next theory is SLC since it seems to have funneled plenty of traffic traveling between coasts in the past, or traffic up and down the west coast or through the Rockies.
 
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Polot
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:46 pm

evank516 wrote:
Polot wrote:
evank516 wrote:

No connection partners? You realize SLC is a Delta Hub right? A rather successful hub at that.

I think he meant on the HND side. The question in regards to SLC would be how many unique destinations does SLC offer over MSP, LAX, and other potential options (SEA and DTW) that also generates a lot of traffic to Tokyo. My guess is not a lot and SLC does not have the traffic to sustain on O&D, nor does DL really have the right aircraft to make it work (they need a A338/788 for the route, A332 was often weight restricted and everything else isbtoo big).

Remember DL tried SLC-NRT back when they had a NRT hub and before HND opened up to US flights. It did not last. DL are not going to waste a precious HND slot on SLC because if it doesn’t work out DL may lose the slot.


See, my theory is that besides MSP/DTW, and with SEA not working, where else could DL make use of a new HND slot that would not garner too much competition and still be west enough. If ATL is out (my only other thought) then my next theory is SLC since it seems to have funneled plenty of traffic traveling between coasts in the past, or traffic up and down the west coast or through the Rockies.

SEA did not work with a midnight slot. DL will try it again with a daylight slot before attempting SLC-HND. They continue to operate a SEA-NRT flight, but couldnt make SLC-NRT work. DL doesn’t have a suitable aircraft for SLC-Asia.
 
NWADTWE16
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:18 pm

I see DL asking for and being rewarded DTW & JFK. NW ran double daily DTW-TYO flights for many years, and in this scenario I see DTW-HND daily and DTW-NRT 5-6 weekly. JFK-HND Daily on the A350.

Interesting mention for VS to return and use HND and I think this would be a very good add for them, especially with the discontinued flights recently. So LHR-HND for them.
AA is failing internationally but I expect they will ask for DFW-HND, and UA ORD-HND to keep fire on Delta.

Delta has sent some interesting responses to me recently when I state clearly my complaint to them is for them to start respecting the DTW hub, its pax friendly connecting abilities and that they should add more spokes and more new service. Their response has been that they are committed to DTW and they understand their pax are seeking options outside ATL. They also stated to look for more DTW routes, service and connecting opportunities headed into 2019. What one wants to make of that one will, but I see it as them finally waking up to what many Elites have long complained about-ATL.
I haven't been everywhere, but it's on my list!
 
Varsity1
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:22 pm

Alaska!! :hyper:
 
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klm617
Posts: 5369
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:42 pm

NWADTWE16 wrote:
I see DL asking for and being rewarded DTW & JFK. NW ran double daily DTW-TYO flights for many years, and in this scenario I see DTW-HND daily and DTW-NRT 5-6 weekly. JFK-HND Daily on the A350.

Interesting mention for VS to return and use HND and I think this would be a very good add for them, especially with the discontinued flights recently. So LHR-HND for them.
AA is failing internationally but I expect they will ask for DFW-HND, and UA ORD-HND to keep fire on Delta.

Delta has sent some interesting responses to me recently when I state clearly my complaint to them is for them to start respecting the DTW hub, its pax friendly connecting abilities and that they should add more spokes and more new service. Their response has been that they are committed to DTW and they understand their pax are seeking options outside ATL. They also stated to look for more DTW routes, service and connecting opportunities headed into 2019. What one wants to make of that one will, but I see it as them finally waking up to what many Elites have long complained about-ATL.


But here is the thing I don't see them asking for DTW because DTW is no longer the priority it once was in the Delta network a lot has changed since Delta asked for DTW-HND the first time so that's why I say SEA and JFK.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
TC957
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:45 pm

The new HND slots could be used as bait to temp back airlines that previously flew to NRT and for new international routes.
I hope VS returns. Could WOW or FI be tempted to try for slots for KEF - HND ?
 
jayunited
Posts: 3096
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:50 pm

GSP psgr wrote:
Thoughts on whether DL would actually prefer a slot for JFK-HND over SEA/ATL/DTW? I keep thinking that DL could probably talk DOT into moving the MSP slot to DTW in the discussions of the next set of HND allocations, and still have the traffic to make a 6w DTW-NRT service work alongside HND. Guesses as to what everyone wants if they only got one more slot pair: UA-EWR, AA-DFW, DL-JFK. I'd guess JL wants to add ORD and LAX, NH plus SEA and SFO or IAH.


I have to wonder about DL and JFK-HND. DL hasn't had the most success at NRT because of their lack of a JV partner I think if anything DL would add JFK-ICN over JFK-HND.
As far as DL running 6x weekly DTW-NRT along side daily DTW-HND I seriously doubt DL needs that much capacity out of DTW, and after reading the article DL has made it quite clear they intend to resurrect their argument from 2013 which was they should be awarded all slot do to their lack of a partner in this market. I don't expect the DOT to go along with this but according to the article DL intends to make the argument they should be allow to move their entire operation from NRT to HND.

As far as UA I fully expect UA to apply for EWR. I think UA could still operate both EWR-NRT and EWR-HND albeit on smaller aircraft like the 789/788. Other than EWR I think UA's application will probably include IAD, LAX, perhaps HNL and ORD.
 
PWMRamper
Posts: 360
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:54 pm

Delta's happy with MSPHND performance. It's not going anywhere...

Last time, Delta requested LAX, MSP, ATL.

No reason to think ATL wouldn't be #1 next time around.
 
Utah744
Posts: 240
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:56 pm

[quote="l
DL tried HND from DTW, it didn't work out well for them. But seems to be functioning better from MSP. Slots are pretty tight into the HND market to begin with, not sure of the Japanese market will ease up at least for the run of the Olympics.[/quote]

If I remember correctly (I could be wrong, I'm old) DL had bad slots (time-wise) into HND.
You are never too old to learn something stupid
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4910
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 9:17 pm

Will airlines really care that much? HND advantage is for frequent travelers. People going to the olympics most are traveling once, an extra hour on the train is not a big deal. It might not even be that far depending on where they are going?
 
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compensateme
Posts: 3279
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 9:17 pm

evank516 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
evank516 wrote:
Hmm, what about SLC?


Umm, no. There can't be much demand for SLC-HND with no connection partners. PDEWs SLC-TYO?


No connection partners? You realize SLC is a Delta Hub right? A rather successful hub at that.


There’s no local market SLC/TYO. There’s not a chance DL would even request SLC. Service to NRT, when NRT was a sizeable operation, didn’t even last four full months...
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
GSP psgr
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Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 10:17 pm

Crazy thought in the back of my mind: I wonder if JetBlue or Alaska might make a play with a JFK/SEA-ANC-HND route application using narrowbody aircraft. Unlikely, but if they could get the slots for nothing, it could be a grab worth making.
 
YYZLGA
Posts: 444
Joined: Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:28 am

Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 10:25 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Will airlines really care that much? HND advantage is for frequent travelers. People going to the olympics most are traveling once, an extra hour on the train is not a big deal. It might not even be that far depending on where they are going?


It's more that they're using the Olympics as an excuse to add slots and a new approach route to HND. It's also about increasing the total number of flights to Japan. The Japanese don't want it to be mostly switching of flights from NRT to HND.
 
jfk777
Posts: 7418
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 10:45 pm

YYZLGA wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Will airlines really care that much? HND advantage is for frequent travelers. People going to the olympics most are traveling once, an extra hour on the train is not a big deal. It might not even be that far depending on where they are going?


It's more that they're using the Olympics as an excuse to add slots and a new approach route to HND. It's also about increasing the total number of flights to Japan. The Japanese don't want it to be mostly switching of flights from NRT to HND.


That is exactly what JAL did with their CDG and LHR flights a few years ago move them to HND.
 
Varsity1
Posts: 2247
Joined: Mon May 02, 2016 4:55 am

Re: US airlines gear up for next round of Tokyo HND slots allocation ahead of 2020 Olympics

Mon Aug 27, 2018 10:57 pm

GSP psgr wrote:
Crazy thought in the back of my mind: I wonder if JetBlue or Alaska might make a play with a JFK/SEA-ANC-HND route application using narrowbody aircraft. Unlikely, but if they could get the slots for nothing, it could be a grab worth making.


I'd like to see this attempted as well. AS is more suited, ETOPS and ANC base.

229nm less than EZE-PUJ, already operated by a 737max. I wonder if AS could get the feed into ANC to make it viable!? :eyepopping:
Last edited by Varsity1 on Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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