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Revelation
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The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 3:05 am

In the thread about the MAX 10's new landing gear ( viewtopic.php?f=5&t=1402777 ) we read:

Samrnpage wrote:
Wow, its uninspiring. This proves the Max-10 is it for the 737 frame. It makes me believe the "797" will be a NSA but with family members that go past the A321 in capacity and range. It cannot not be right ?

and

Super80Fan wrote:
The whole MAX stuff I'm seeing is proof that the 737 MAX 10 is as far as the 737 design can go.


So, is what we now know about the MAX 10 proof positive that the MAX 10 is the end of the line for the 737 design?

Given that https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_73 ... deliveries tells us Boeing has 4,704 more orders to fill as of now and there's every indication that there will be more, is this something that should greatly concern the aviation ecosystem in general and Boeing in particular?
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 3:21 am

(1968) 737-100 stretched to -200 (order was only a month later)
(1984 or 16 years later) -300, -400, and a shrink back -500.
(1997 or 13 years later) -700, -800, -900(ER) and a shrink back.
(2017 or 20 years later) -7, -8, -9, and -10.
Note: corrected typo
Yea, eventually a highly modified design reaches the end of its usefulness. A new gear is required and a new wing to make a tremendous progress.

The design will see weight reduction PIPS (high lithium aluminum will creep into more parts, 3D-printed parts to reduce cost and weight), The engines were planned from day #1 to have CMC turbine blades. But if you mean will there be any more models? I do not think so.

Now we can debate about this for 10 to 15 years before Boeing launches the NSA.

Concern? Not yet. The 797 widebody will distract Boeing until fully in service in 2027 or so (all models, a MTOW increase, and early PIPs as well as continued work on the 787 and 777X). About then I would expect Boeing to be doing intensive studies with a later official launch to keep MAX sales flowing after much development.

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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 3:29 am

The real surprise is that the 737 was able to undergo six stretches from its original design (the B731, roughly equivalent in size to the DC-9-14/15, would be replaced with a regional jet). The 731 was designed to seat 85 (with an exit door limit of 124). The 737 MAX 10 will have a limit of 230. No one could have foreseen the 737 go from a 2 FA aircraft to a 5 FA aircraft.
 
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 3:36 am

In a dozen or so years it will be time for the NSA. I believe that the MOM is the dress rehearsal for the NSA. Still, the 737 Max's will probably be produced for 20+ years more.
 
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 3:44 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
The real surprise is that the 737 was able to undergo six stretches from its original design (the B731, roughly equivalent in size to the DC-9-14/15, would be replaced with a regional jet). The 731 was designed to seat 85 (with an exit door limit of 124). The 737 MAX 10 will have a limit of 230. No one could have foreseen the 737 go from a 2 FA aircraft to a 5 FA aircraft.


And amazing that the FAA considers the MAX similar enough to the Classic to consider it the same type, but simultaneously not similar enough to allow pilots to fly all 3.
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 3:47 am

Revelation wrote:
In the thread about the MAX 10's new landing gear ( viewtopic.php?f=5&t=1402777 ) we read:

Samrnpage wrote:
Wow, its uninspiring. This proves the Max-10 is it for the 737 frame. It makes me believe the "797" will be a NSA but with family members that go past the A321 in capacity and range. It cannot not be right ?

and

Super80Fan wrote:
The whole MAX stuff I'm seeing is proof that the 737 MAX 10 is as far as the 737 design can go.


So, is what we now know about the MAX 10 proof positive that the MAX 10 is the end of the line for the 737 design?

Given that https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_73 ... deliveries tells us Boeing has 4,704 more orders to fill as of now and there's every indication that there will be more, is this something that should greatly concern the aviation ecosystem in general and Boeing in particular?


The people saying things like that don’t know the actual fuel burn numbers, maintenance costs and purchase price of the airplane. Airlines care about making money and want reliability. Proven existing designs can beat new designs when they are properly upgraded.
 
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:16 am

With the 797 coming on-line by 2025 and Boeing's recent acquisition of Embraer (80 percent of the company), there will be enough aircraft to replace the current market of the 737 within the family of Boeing aircraft. In fact, it would be silly for Boeing to continue the 737 program with the new 797 and the E-195 available. It would only cannibalize those aircraft sales to potential customers.
 
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:11 am

lightsaber wrote:
The 797 widebody will distract Boeing until fully in service in 2027 or so ...

Lightsaber


Any confirmation that the 797 will be a widebody? I have not seen any. I am not sure it will be a widebody at all. Other posts have already delved into this...

I might be wrong but still feel that the 797 will be a LH Narrow Body.
 
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:21 am

Jomar777 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The 797 widebody will distract Boeing until fully in service in 2027 or so ...

Lightsaber


Any confirmation that the 797 will be a widebody? I have not seen any. I am not sure it will be a widebody at all. Other posts have already delved into this...

I might be wrong but still feel that the 797 will be a LH Narrow Body.

Multiple airline CEO's have confirmed that it is a small widebody around 767 in cabin area.

This does not mean it will be 767 weight and wing area. As the max range quoted are much less than the 767ER they will be much lighter.

So based on that information physically it will probably look like a 757 wing fitted to the 767. Slim chance the fuselage might be slightly oval.
 
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:25 am

piedmontf284000 wrote:
With the 797 coming on-line by 2025 and Boeing's recent acquisition of Embraer (80 percent of the company), there will be enough aircraft to replace the current market of the 737 within the family of Boeing aircraft. In fact, it would be silly for Boeing to continue the 737 program with the new 797 and the E-195 available. It would only cannibalize those aircraft sales to potential customers.


797 is a 757/767 replacement. E195 can barely cover the 737-700. If you look at NG and MAX sales, the most sales are for the -800/MAX 8. Without an NSA there's a humongus gap in Boeing's offerings. There will be an NSA, primarily to cover exactly that market. Then againt in 20 years the market could be more inclined to order larger aircraft. I feel like the 797/NSA will be a 757/767 situation, even if not launched at the same time.
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:46 pm

Should Boeing be concerned about the MAX selling? No, it is doing great. Will there ever be a different/newer version of the 737? I don't think so, but I remember people on here saying the NG was the end of the line. There are plenty of people who didn't think there would ever be a 737 bigger than the 9 too, so who knows?
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:52 pm

Revelation wrote:
In the thread about the MAX 10's new landing gear ( viewtopic.php?f=5&t=1402777 ) we read:

Samrnpage wrote:
Wow, its uninspiring. This proves the Max-10 is it for the 737 frame. It makes me believe the "797" will be a NSA but with family members that go past the A321 in capacity and range. It cannot not be right ?

and

Super80Fan wrote:
The whole MAX stuff I'm seeing is proof that the 737 MAX 10 is as far as the 737 design can go.


So, is what we now know about the MAX 10 proof positive that the MAX 10 is the end of the line for the 737 design?

Given that https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_73 ... deliveries tells us Boeing has 4,704 more orders to fill as of now and there's every indication that there will be more, is this something that should greatly concern the aviation ecosystem in general and Boeing in particular?

My understanding is that the new MoM was supposed to be a new aircraft that have commonality with upcoming next NSA instead of being a NSA in itself. Plus a new MoM aircraft haven't been firmed so things could still change. And that MoM was supposed to come with two aisles.
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 4:18 pm

Jomar777 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The 797 widebody will distract Boeing until fully in service in 2027 or so ...

Lightsaber


Any confirmation that the 797 will be a widebody? I have not seen any. I am not sure it will be a widebody at all. Other posts have already delved into this...

I might be wrong but still feel that the 797 will be a LH Narrow Body.



Yes, slated to be a dual-aisle widebody, with introduction in approx 2025.
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UA444
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 4:45 pm

It’s been long past its sell by date since the 900 came out. It was never as good of a plane as the DC-9 or A320.
 
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:43 pm

UA444 wrote:
It’s been long past its sell by date since the 900 came out. It was never as good of a plane as the DC-9 or A320.

That great A320 that has to tech stop every time the jet stream is too strong on a Westbound transcon flight?
 
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:55 pm

32andBelow wrote:
UA444 wrote:
It’s been long past its sell by date since the 900 came out. It was never as good of a plane as the DC-9 or A320.

That great A320 that has to tech stop every time the jet stream is too strong on a Westbound transcon flight?


I'd be interested in your reasoning why this is a qualifier of "great" or not?
( imu what you address is the balance of payload vs. range and managements decision of
dropping payload or doing a tech stop for more fuel on occasion.)
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:05 pm

FriscoHeavy wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The 797 widebody will distract Boeing until fully in service in 2027 or so ...

Lightsaber


Any confirmation that the 797 will be a widebody? I have not seen any. I am not sure it will be a widebody at all. Other posts have already delved into this...

I might be wrong but still feel that the 797 will be a LH Narrow Body.



Yes, slated to be a dual-aisle widebody, with introduction in approx 2025.

Hence my timeline. 797 widebody EIS 2025. Stretch and PIPs complete 2027. Staff working new narrowbody starting in 2023, but not announced until 2027 when the full team moves over.

No cross section works forever. While internally a 737 is now very different, it amazes me how much stayed constant (front gear stayed out of Catia forever as no revision was required, but eventually the gear was needed in Catia).

The plane EIS was 50 years ago. So eventually it is done.

But not yet. I think the A321 will be a tough competitor. It lagged until range and shortfield we're improved. With Sharklets and 35k, it will do well. But that doesn't mean the -10 won't keep selling. It has the range the US3 demand.

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Austin787
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:27 pm

As as Southwest sticks with its one airplane type policy, Boeing will continue producing 737s.
 
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:59 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Yea, eventually a highly modified design reaches the end of its usefulness. A new gear is required and a new wing to make a tremendous progress.

The design will see weight reduction PIPS (high lithium aluminum will creep into more parts, 3D-printed parts to reduce cost and weight), The engines were planned from day #1 to have CMC turbine blades. But if you mean will there be any more models? I do not think so.

Now we can debate about this for 10 to 15 years before Boeing launches the NSA.


Boeing developed a new wing and new gear for the 737NG when they needed it. I see no reason Boeing could not have done the same for the 737Max program. I think Boeing missed on their market analysis in the early 2010s and did not properly judge the demand for longer sectors and capacity above the 737-900ER. They could have easily justified a more significant rework of the 737NG had they properly anticipated the market that transpired.

In my opinion, Boeing will only ditch the 737 platform - or any major model for that matter - for one of two reasons: technology or configuration. If the model can continue to accept new technology and flex its configuration to meet the market needs, then there is no business case to develop a clean-sheet major model.

So I'm not betting against the 737. I think a lot of people will be surprised and perhaps disappointed to see the old gal have another generation after the MAX. The configuration is just too good for 150-200 seats. That leaves technology and I am not optimistic that radical materials or propulsion innovations will become mainstream for short-haul aircraft in the next 10-15 years.
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:16 pm

DfwRevolution wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Yea, eventually a highly modified design reaches the end of its usefulness. A new gear is required and a new wing to make a tremendous progress.

The design will see weight reduction PIPS (high lithium aluminum will creep into more parts, 3D-printed parts to reduce cost and weight), The engines were planned from day #1 to have CMC turbine blades. But if you mean will there be any more models? I do not think so.

Now we can debate about this for 10 to 15 years before Boeing launches the NSA.


Boeing developed a new wing and new gear for the 737NG when they needed it. I see no reason Boeing could not have done the same for the 737Max program. I think Boeing missed on their market analysis in the early 2010s and did not properly judge the demand for longer sectors and capacity above the 737-900ER. They could have easily justified a more significant rework of the 737NG had they properly anticipated the market that transpired.

In my opinion, Boeing will only ditch the 737 platform - or any major model for that matter - for one of two reasons: technology or configuration. If the model can continue to accept new technology and flex its configuration to meet the market needs, then there is no business case to develop a clean-sheet major model.

So I'm not betting against the 737. I think a lot of people will be surprised and perhaps disappointed to see the old gal have another generation after the MAX. The configuration is just too good for 150-200 seats. That leaves technology and I am not optimistic that radical materials or propulsion innovations will become mainstream for short-haul aircraft in the next 10-15 years.

It needs a CFRP wing with folding wingtips for the next generation and taller gear. It that can be appended to the type certificate, Rock on!
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:47 pm

Is the MAX being built with the same tooling that was used to make the -100 and -200? It seems like once every 6 months on here it has to be explained that the 757 line will never reopen because the tooling no longer exists. It's made me wonder about the MAX.
 
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:47 pm

It ultimately comes down to how much you can tweak an existing airplane before it becomes a new one. Excessive tweaking and refusal to change is what brought Douglas airplanes from Hero to Zero starting in 1967.

The 737 Max 10, yes, is pretty much the absolute limit of the 737. Just like how Airbus shouldn't keep LR-ing or XLR-ing the A321.
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 11:27 pm

Austin787 wrote:
As as Southwest sticks with its one airplane type policy, Boeing will continue producing 737s.


yes, Boeing will keep a plane on the line for a single customer.

Common this isn't Airbus!!
 
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Fri Aug 31, 2018 11:49 pm

danj555 wrote:
Common this isn't Airbus!!


A380?
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:07 am

IAmGaroott wrote:
Is the MAX being built with the same tooling that was used to make the -100 and -200? It seems like once every 6 months on here it has to be explained that the 757 line will never reopen because the tooling no longer exists. It's made me wonder about the MAX.


Along similar lines, I was flying on a 737-500 recently and couldn't help but wonder how parts were supplied to keep it airworthy. Are all parts used? Are some parts still available in new condition because they are identical to the parts used in the newer versions of the plane, resulting in a mix of new and "used only" parts availability? Somebody has to still be producing something here.

I suppose something similar could be said about restoring classic cars but, I assume, airworthiness standards/tolerances would be far, far more stringent. Any insight appreciated.
 
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:10 am

IAmGaroott wrote:
Is the MAX being built with the same tooling that was used to make the -100 and -200? It seems like once every 6 months on here it has to be explained that the 757 line will never reopen because the tooling no longer exists. It's made me wonder about the MAX.


737 production is nothing like it once was. The 737 isn’t even built in the same location as the original 737-100 was.

737NG final assembly was radically changed in the mid 2000s when they created the moving line. This article explains the differences


https://airwaysmag.com/uncategorized/in ... -part-two/

Old
Image

New
Image
 
DfwRevolution
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:51 am

jaxbiz wrote:
Along similar lines, I was flying on a 737-500 recently and couldn't help but wonder how parts were supplied to keep it airworthy. Are all parts used? Are some parts still available in new condition because they are identical to the parts used in the newer versions of the plane, resulting in a mix of new and "used only" parts availability? Somebody has to still be producing something here


Boeing continues technical support for an aircraft model long after it ends commercial production. That includes OEM spare parts. I vaguely recall someone on this board claiming that Boeing would field an occasional 377 inquiry into the 2000s.

lightsaber wrote:
It needs a CFRP wing with folding wingtips for the next generation and taller gear. It that can be appended to the type certificate, Rock on!


They did it once...

Revelation wrote:
So, is what we now know about the MAX 10 proof positive that the MAX 10 is the end of the line for the 737 design?


I find this whole premise illogical. Boeing was able to offer the MAX 10 with a minor landing gear modification. The proof is that the 737 can continue growing.

By contrast, if Boeing had concluded they were unable to offer the MAX 10 stretch, then that would be proof the 737 has likely reached the "end of the line" for further capacity growth.
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:15 am

DfwRevolution wrote:
jaxbiz wrote:
Along similar lines, I was flying on a 737-500 recently and couldn't help but wonder how parts were supplied to keep it airworthy. Are all parts used? Are some parts still available in new condition because they are identical to the parts used in the newer versions of the plane, resulting in a mix of new and "used only" parts availability? Somebody has to still be producing something here


Boeing continues technical support for an aircraft model long after it ends commercial production. That includes OEM spare parts. I vaguely recall someone on this board claiming that Boeing would field an occasional 377 inquiry into the 2000s.

lightsaber wrote:
It needs a CFRP wing with folding wingtips for the next generation and taller gear. It that can be appended to the type certificate, Rock on!


They did it once...

Revelation wrote:
So, is what we now know about the MAX 10 proof positive that the MAX 10 is the end of the line for the 737 design?


I find this whole premise illogical. Boeing was able to offer the MAX 10 with a minor landing gear modification. The proof is that the 737 can continue growing.

By contrast, if Boeing had concluded they were unable to offer the MAX 10 stretch, then that would be proof the 737 has likely reached the "end of the line" for further capacity growth.


I agree that the 737 can continue to evolve and probably will.

As far as parts go, Airlines can order them. New parts can be fabricated. Boeing has internal shops that can make 1 off parts. Boeing is still supporting DC3s and DC6s flying up in Canada.
 
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sat Sep 01, 2018 6:15 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
DfwRevolution wrote:
jaxbiz wrote:
Along similar lines, I was flying on a 737-500 recently and couldn't help but wonder how parts were supplied to keep it airworthy. Are all parts used? Are some parts still available in new condition because they are identical to the parts used in the newer versions of the plane, resulting in a mix of new and "used only" parts availability? Somebody has to still be producing something here


Boeing continues technical support for an aircraft model long after it ends commercial production. That includes OEM spare parts. I vaguely recall someone on this board claiming that Boeing would field an occasional 377 inquiry into the 2000s.

lightsaber wrote:
It needs a CFRP wing with folding wingtips for the next generation and taller gear. It that can be appended to the type certificate, Rock on!


They did it once...

Revelation wrote:
So, is what we now know about the MAX 10 proof positive that the MAX 10 is the end of the line for the 737 design?


I find this whole premise illogical. Boeing was able to offer the MAX 10 with a minor landing gear modification. The proof is that the 737 can continue growing.

By contrast, if Boeing had concluded they were unable to offer the MAX 10 stretch, then that would be proof the 737 has likely reached the "end of the line" for further capacity growth.


I agree that the 737 can continue to evolve and probably will.

As far as parts go, Airlines can order them. New parts can be fabricated. Boeing has internal shops that can make 1 off parts. Boeing is still supporting DC3s and DC6s flying up in Canada.

The 737-500 series might need a fuselage panel every now and then due to corrosion but not much else everything else can mainly be sourced from other models of the B737 if the same era.. Boeing has all the Drawings and except for the Chemically milled belly panels in the aft fuselage would not actually require Factory support.
 
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sat Sep 01, 2018 8:50 am

DfwRevolution wrote:
Boeing was able to offer the MAX 10 with a minor landing gear modification.


I'd put the "minor change" to the question.

It is a major change, no parts stay the same
the number of essential linkages exploded.

Obviously there is no hard limit to pushing the 737 further forward.
But there is an exponential rise in effort/cost per step going further forward.

How much less than a new from scratch model did the NG upgrade cost actually?
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mjoelnir
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:37 am

The question about the end of of the line for the 737 can be simple deduced from sales numbers. The 737-800 did extremely well and the 737-8 does extremely well. The 737-900/900ER lost out against the A321 and the 737-9/10 gets soundly beten by the A321neo.
So is it the end of the line regarding selling 737, no, but trying to compete with a blown up 737 with the A321 really do show up the limitation of the 737.
 
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Revelation
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:58 pm

DfwRevolution wrote:
Revelation wrote:
So, is what we now know about the MAX 10 proof positive that the MAX 10 is the end of the line for the 737 design?

I find this whole premise illogical. Boeing was able to offer the MAX 10 with a minor landing gear modification. The proof is that the 737 can continue growing.

By contrast, if Boeing had concluded they were unable to offer the MAX 10 stretch, then that would be proof the 737 has likely reached the "end of the line" for further capacity growth.

Well said.

WIederling wrote:
Obviously there is no hard limit to pushing the 737 further forward.
But there is an exponential rise in effort/cost per step going further forward.

Exponential for the gear, perhaps, but it enabled adding a few rows of pax without the very exponential effort of an all-new aircraft.
It's all worth it if you have the UALs of this world willing to buy them.

mjoelnir wrote:
The question about the end of of the line for the 737 can be simple deduced from sales numbers. The 737-800 did extremely well and the 737-8 does extremely well. The 737-900/900ER lost out against the A321 and the 737-9/10 gets soundly beten by the A321neo.
So is it the end of the line regarding selling 737, no, but trying to compete with a blown up 737 with the A321 really do show up the limitation of the 737.

I agree that the end will come when sales stop.
That is what in the end killed the "beloved" 757.

I don't agree it's about being outsold by the competitors.
Profit and market share are two different things.
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DfwRevolution
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:04 pm

WIederling wrote:
DfwRevolution wrote:
Boeing was able to offer the MAX 10 with a minor landing gear modification.


I'd put the "minor change" to the question.

It is a major change, no parts stay the same
the number of essential linkages exploded.


I would consider it a minor change because it is self-contained to the MLG strut and did not result in cascading changes through the wing, wingbox, and fuselage. Do we have a BOM to verify that no parts stayed the same? I'm skeptical. This appears entirely within the range of mechanical variation that typically occurs between minor models of a major model family.

WIederling wrote:
Obviously there is no hard limit to pushing the 737 further forward.
But there is an exponential rise in effort/cost per step going further forward.

How much less than a new from scratch model did the NG upgrade cost actually?


Indeed. Maybe it was cost neutral. Perhaps it cost more. If end users value operational commonality, then by definition it is something worth paying for.
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Beatyair
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:33 pm

The MAX just means this old design, a proven design, that has added components is Maxed out.
Boeing can’t afford to change the designs of all its different types of aircraft at the sametime, so you add some new toys and milk it until you can change the design. Lessons from the 787 and the in design 797, plus new technologies will provide a path to the future narrow body.

Who will get there first? Boeing or Airbus.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:38 pm

Obviously those discussing if the landing gear modifications were major or minor aren’t using the FAA definition of major or minor alterations. ;)

https://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/med ... 3-210A.pdf

Anything that would be considered a minor change would never be notable enough to get discussed here so I’m just teasing.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:45 pm

Beatyair wrote:
The MAX just means this old design, a proven design, that has added components is Maxed out.
Boeing can’t afford to change the designs of all its different types of aircraft at the sametime, so you add some new toys and milk it until you can change the design. Lessons from the 787 and the in design 797, plus new technologies will provide a path to the future narrow body.

Who will get there first? Boeing or Airbus.


Old proven designs are much cheaper to maintain and are more reliable.

  • Part and component repair costs are low since there are many overhaul facilities to choose from.
  • Spare parts are cheap since there is a robust after market with PMA approval
  • Dispatch reliability is higher since hundreds of reliability improvement service bulletins have been completed
  • Technology upgrades (such as avionics features) can be incorporated into existing designs
  • There are many MRO facilities and line station support companies with mechanics licensed on the plane
  • There is an existing pool of already qualified pilots

Fuel efficiency improvements of a few percent is not likely going to offset to operational costs of proven designs. These are the exact same reasons why the A330neo and 777x were launched.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sat Sep 01, 2018 3:59 pm

Boeing seems to intend the MOM to cover those longer ranges and higher passengers levels of planes from the last millennium. LOL
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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kjeld0d
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sat Sep 01, 2018 7:17 pm

Coming in 2040: 737 OptiUltra SuperDuper ++ King Ranch Edition
 
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kanban
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sat Sep 01, 2018 8:47 pm

there seems to be an assumption that once a model goes into production all changes or improvements stop... not so Engineering changes and enhancements are continuously being incorporated.. by the time the post Max comes along the last MAX will be substantially different than the first MAX. so is the model at a dead end... no way...
 
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Clipper101
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:06 pm

May be a high aspect ratio wing (may be struted and foldable) could give B737 design another last shot of life :stirthepot:
 
Samrnpage
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:30 pm

This will be the last 737 design I think. Its the 21st century and the 737 doesnt even have electronic checklists to keep the commonality with the older models. They need a NSA
 
rbavfan
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sat Sep 01, 2018 10:23 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The 797 widebody will distract Boeing until fully in service in 2027 or so ...

Lightsaber


Any confirmation that the 797 will be a widebody? I have not seen any. I am not sure it will be a widebody at all. Other posts have already delved into this...

I might be wrong but still feel that the 797 will be a LH Narrow Body.

Multiple airline CEO's have confirmed that it is a small widebody around 767 in cabin area.

This does not mean it will be 767 weight and wing area. As the max range quoted are much less than the 767ER they will be much lighter.

So based on that information physically it will probably look like a 757 wing fitted to the 767. Slim chance the fuselage might be slightly oval.



The 767 was a much lighter shorter range model than what it became. It started as 3900nm range 767-200 followed by the 767-300 at the same range. Then grew into the ER models.
 
Ruscoe
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:48 am

I think it will take either the threat of a new competitor, or an unexpected breakthrough technology, to push Airbus or Boeing to a new NB in the foreseeable future.

It's just too comfortable for Airbus and Boeing with their huge sales of 320 and 737, and no realistic competition, to risk upsetting the status quo.


The only hope I see for a new WB from A or B in the next ~20 years, is if the MOM is launched, and it is a NB, then we might see a new Lighter version as a 180-220 seater, some years after launch.

If this does not occur, then in 20+ years, the next NB may very well be a very different looking aircraft, rather than the std 2 engines under the wings , essentially round fuselage etc.


Ruscoe
 
Ruscoe
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sun Sep 02, 2018 2:28 am

That should be NB
 
DfwRevolution
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sun Sep 02, 2018 2:43 am

Ruscoe wrote:
I think it will take either the threat of a new competitor, or an unexpected breakthrough technology, to push Airbus or Boeing to a new NB in the foreseeable future.


Even that might not be enough. 90% of 737s were ordered after Airbus launched the A320 and 55% were ordered after Bombardier launched the C-Series.
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yyzmdw
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sun Sep 02, 2018 2:45 am

Although I agree that the MAX 10 is the design limit for the 737 fuselage, when I think of the end of the line for the 737, my attention is drawn to the MAX 7. It just seems like too much airplane; too heavy and with too much range. The -700 was a successful model before, but it looks like the A220 and co. are just going to eat the MAX 7's lunch. I wonder if Boeing will do something to make the -7 more competitive against those other models, with WN looking to place a massive order, and UA needing to replace a bunch of smaller narrowbodies and RJs, to name a few examples.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sun Sep 02, 2018 3:04 am

Clipper101 wrote:
May be a high aspect ratio wing (may be struted and foldable) could give B737 design another last shot of life :stirthepot:

Very doubtful. I expect the 737Max to get an engine PIP with cmc turbines to improve fuel efficiency. A small PIP is coming in 2021 for a 2% gain. In 10 years time I expect an improvement in SFC to reach 5%.

The 797 effectively covers the 737 weakspot and allows the current design to keeo selling for longer. The 737 is very competitive on short haul below 200 seats and 3000nm. In fact in many areas it is superior to A320 family as it is sized perfectly for just under 200 seats with 4 flight attendants.

The A321 is in a much better position long term. A carbon wing with more fuel capacity and newer engines would bring it very close to a clean sheet design. The cockpit, landing gear height and maximum takeoff weight are similar to what a cleansheet design would have.



rbavfan wrote:
The 767 was a much lighter shorter range model than what it became. It started as 3900nm range 767-200 followed by the 767-300 at the same range. Then grew into the ER models.

The original 767-200 wasnt much lighter at all. Only 2T or 3% lighter empty than the 767-200ER.

My point was the original 767-200 still had the large wing, centre bulkhead and heavy landing gear to allow the maximum takeoff weight to go from 142T to 186T or a massive 30% increase.

If this headroom wasn't built into the 767-200 it would have been built with a much smaller wing and would have had an empty weight maybe 10% lighter.

So the 797 might have a maximum takeweight similar to the 767-200 but it's wing and landing gear would be sized correctly (smaller, same span, less area, higher aspect ratio)
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sun Sep 02, 2018 3:57 am

yyzmdw wrote:
Although I agree that the MAX 10 is the design limit for the 737 fuselage, when I think of the end of the line for the 737, my attention is drawn to the MAX 7. It just seems like too much airplane; too heavy and with too much range. The -700 was a successful model before, but it looks like the A220 and co. are just going to eat the MAX 7's lunch. I wonder if Boeing will do something to make the -7 more competitive against those other models, with WN looking to place a massive order, and UA needing to replace a bunch of smaller narrowbodies and RJs, to name a few examples.


The 120 seat 2-class configured E195-E2 may soon be marketed by Boeing.
 
Ruscoe
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:07 am

yyzmdw wrote:
the MAX 7. It just seems like too much airplane; too heavy and with too much range. The -700 was a successful model before,,,,,. I wonder if Boeing will do something .........


I think they did make the 7 Max slightly longer than the 700, so maybe they tried. Time will tell.

Ruscoe
 
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Super80Fan
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Re: The end of the line for the 737 design now proven?

Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:08 am

My "doom and gloom" toward the 737 program is no secret. That being said, I like the 737 and it's been a proven workhorse for both Boeing and the airlines. It is probably the best narrow-body aircraft that will ever exist, in terms of performance, orders, and popularity. That being said, I really do believe that the 737 MAX 10 is the end of the line for the 737. The advancements of the aircraft are great and all but there is only so much you can do with the original design before it becomes an entirely new aircraft design. I believe the 737 program will continue to flourish, especially with the MAX's, but after this Boeing will have to go back to the drawing board.
RIP McDonnell Douglas
RIP US Airways

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