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planemanofnz
Posts: 4296
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:26 am

Some insights from CZ regarding its New Zealand operations:

- They're hoping to capitalise on the New Zealand-China Year of Tourism in 2019 - more increases to come?
- The majority of passengers on CZ were inbound from China, and targeting Kiwis remained a "challenge".
- The airline has noted particular growth in awareness (and I assume demand) here for its Business Class.

It'll be interesting to see what shape CZ growth here takes:

- Could we perhaps see a seasonal NW 380 service down the road, like SYD does? Loads are already 85%.
- Could CZ be interested in opening non-CAN flights ex-AKL, like to WUH, or the new BJS airport - Daxing?

See: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new ... d=12119151.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:29 am

NZ has launched a status match offering for those who have Gold or higher status with other airlines (excluding other Star Alliance airlines and CX) with their Touch of Gold promotion. IMO, this is a good move to try and target Velocity members post-NZ's VA alliance ending.

See: https://traveltalk.nz/news-opinion/air- ... residents/.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4296
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:37 am

The Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) will invest $5.5 million in the redevelopment of Gisborne Airport, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones announced today. The total cost of the redevelopment is $12.5 million and will be co-funded by the PGF, Eastland Group Ltd and the Eastland Community Trust. The funding will be administered as a loan. Hopefully NZ remains committed to Gisborne, and doesn't pull out, which may render this development pointless. That being said, even if NZ did pull out, I guess 3C would step-in?

See: http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1809/S ... opment.htm.

Cheers,

C.
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:19 am

planemanofnz wrote:
Fly My Sky have announced scheduled flights between Auckland and Whangarei. The scheduled service will start on 23 October 2018, and will operate twice daily Monday to Friday. Could this be the start of the end for Air New Zealand's Auckland - Whangarei service?


No, Air NZ will not be not ending AKL-WRE which is 27 flights a week in the 29 Oct 2018 schedule.

planemanofnz wrote:
The Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) will invest $5.5 million in the redevelopment of Gisborne Airport, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones announced today. The total cost of the redevelopment is $12.5 million and will be co-funded by the PGF, Eastland Group Ltd and the Eastland Community Trust. The funding will be administered as a loan. Hopefully NZ remains committed to Gisborne, and doesn't pull out, which may render this development pointless. That being said, even if NZ did pull out, I guess 3C would step-in?


Yes, Air NZ is committed to GIS and will not be ending AKL-GIS which is 32 flights a week, or WLG-GIS which is 14 flights a week in the 29 Oct 2018 schedule.

PA515
 
NTLDaz
Posts: 360
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:20 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
How is BNE a bigger market?

Correct me if I'm wrong but Australasia - Vietnam is largely an outbound market, going to Vietnam, so we need to look at the size and wealth of the Australasian market(s) in question (e.g. inbound tourism potential is largely irrelevant, unlike with China, Japan and other markets).

Let's compare:

- BNE's metro population is greater than AKL's (2.5 million versus 1.6 million).
- QLD's population is greater than New Zealand's (5 million versus 4.7 million).
- BNE's GDP per capita is greater than AKL's (NZD 71,000 versus NZD 61,000).

On a very high-level analysis, a flight from BNE would seem to be targeting a bigger and wealthier population than a flight from AKL would be, and even if this is incorrect, then one has to account for competition - VN would have all of the non-stop ex-BNE market to itself, unlike at AKL.

Cheers,

C.


The only rider I'd put on this is look at the Vietnamese diaspora in the respective cities. I don't know what it is but a lot of the passengers on VN may be Vietnamese in Australia.
 
NTLDaz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:27 am

planemanofnz wrote:
a7ala wrote:
Just a question - you make the comment about WLG's market sizes and profile - what do you think WLG's market sizes are? WLG is nearing 1M international pax and I think ADL has just nudged over that.

Apples and oranges. Given ADL's geography, flights are only international after a 5 or 6 hour threshold, at a minimum, compared to WLG's 3 hour threshold, giving WLG a big advantage on classifying a flight as 'international' for its statistics - if ADL's flights to the likes of SYD, BNE and MEL were included as international, as they are for WLG, then ADL's size differential over WLG would be much, much greater. IMO, a far better way of looking at the market is 1) population size (ADL is 2-3x bigger than WLG in that metric), and 2) the amount of intercontinental flights currently sustained, without subsidy (ADL has DXB, DOH, KUL, SIN, CAN and others, whereas WLG has none). ADL also arguably has stronger inbound tourism potential due to things like the Barossa Valley and Kangaroo Island. Ultimately, SQ has been tried and tested at ADL for several decades, whereas the WLG service is only new and still building up - therefore, I think it'd be risky to boost it to non-stop and/or daily, at this stage. However, I may be wrong - perhaps those are just what SQ at WLG needs to do

C.


A point to think about is that there isn't much population in South Australia outside of ADL - not much of a catchment area - unlike SYD or BNE. WLG maybe has a bigger catchment which reduces the difference a bit. Agree with most of your points though.

WLG is just kind of in the wrong spot for many tourists to the Land of the Long Wide Vowel.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:32 am

On the topic of China - New Zealand flights, I've seen it reported in some Chinese language media in the last year that there are plans to open flights to AKL from TAO and XMN in the future. Does anyone know more about this? Both TAO and XMN already have flights to SYD and MEL (on JD, from TAO, and MF, from XMN), so it makes sense that AKL would be next, particularly given tourism growing at 10-15% annually.

Chinese media also suggests that Chinese people can travel to New Zealand via Fiji, without needing a transit visa (unlike with Australia). It'd be interesting if CZ opened CAN - NAN - WLG (with NAN and WLG having the most un-met demand for China flights in Australasia). However, this would likely rely on fifth-freedom rights on NAN - WLG - something I can't see the Fijians giving out, as FJ serves WLG already.

See: http://www.chinesenzherald.co.nz/news/t ... ina-to-nz/ (only in Chinese, sorry).

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:37 am

NTLDaz wrote:
The only rider I'd put on this is look at the Vietnamese diaspora in the respective cities. I don't know what it is but a lot of the passengers on VN may be Vietnamese in Australia.

The Vietnamese population in QLD is about 30,000 (~20,000 of which are in BNE), while in New Zealand, it's only ~6,500. This is another factor which, IMO, works to make BNE - Vietnam a bigger market than AKL - Vietnam for VN, but I still think that at both BNE and AKL, outbound tourism to Vietnam is by far the biggest market driver. Perhaps VN will link the two, in a SGN - BNE - AKL routing?

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:42 am

NTLDaz wrote:
A point to think about is that there isn't much population in South Australia outside of ADL - not much of a catchment area - unlike SYD or BNE. WLG maybe has a bigger catchment which reduces the difference a bit.

SA has a population of 1.7 million, whereas New Zealand's lower North Island (south of TUO), has a population of about 1 million or less, I'd guess, with much of that actually arguably overlapping with AKL's catchment area (e.g. I'd argue people in places like NPE would still use AKL over WLG, as both are too far to drive to, and AKL offers far more options). Would you count the upper South Island as a catchment area for WLG too? Perhaps, but the effect of that on the numbers would be minor - ADL and SA would still be bigger.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:52 am

a7ala wrote:
SQ

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
SQ

One other thought - does anyone know whether the issue with WLG's runway length for non-stop SIN flights is related to just take-off or landing, and not both of these? I ask, because if they wanted to boost WLG to daily, could one option be a triangular SIN - CHC / AKL - WIN - SIN service, given that's what SQ did for CBR, with SIN - SYD - CBR - SIN? Just a thought - not sure if it'd be viable.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:10 am

PA515 wrote:
Air NZ will not be not ending AKL-WRE which is 27 flights a week in the 29 Oct 2018 schedule.

PA515 wrote:
Air NZ is committed to GIS and will not be ending AKL-GIS which is 32 flights a week in the 29 Oct 2018 schedule.

Are you saying this merely on the basis of the volume of existing flights, or do you have inside knowledge on this? I ask, because I wouldn't be convinced that both ports would be secured merely because at present, they have a couple of daily flights. Are GIS and WRE currently being served much more than WAG and other ports were, before their demise? I do hope that they keep both ports though!

Cheers,

C.
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
Posts: 938
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:35 am

planemanofnz wrote:
a7ala wrote:
SQ

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
SQ

One other thought - does anyone know whether the issue with WLG's runway length for non-stop SIN flights is related to just take-off or landing, and not both of these? I ask, because if they wanted to boost WLG to daily, could one option be a triangular SIN - CHC / AKL - WIN - SIN service, given that's what SQ did for CBR, with SIN - SYD - CBR - SIN? Just a thought - not sure if it'd be viable.

Cheers,

C.


From memory of the runway extension documents the bigger problem is landing for the runway length. But for the older aircraft designs the length is an issue for take off weight; restricting the amount of fuel and cargo that can be uplifted. The newer A350 and B787 seem to be just good enough on the take off with a proper fuel and cargo load but still have questions around landing length in the wet.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:37 am

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
From memory of the runway extension documents the bigger problem is landing for the runway length. But for the older aircraft designs the length is an issue for take off weight; restricting the amount of fuel and cargo that can be uplifted. The newer A350 and B787 seem to be just good enough on the take off with a proper fuel and cargo load but still have questions around landing length in the wet.

Interesting - then what about SIN - CHC - WLG - SIN on a 359? That way, there'd be no back-tracking per se for CHC passengers (unlike for AKL passengers if the triangular route went through AKL). It'd be kind of like SIN - SYD - CBR - SIN, launched a few months back.

Cheers,

C.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:48 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
Fly My Sky have announced scheduled flights between Auckland and Whangarei. The scheduled service will start on 23 October 2018, and will operate twice daily Monday to Friday. Could this be the start of the end for Air New Zealand's Auckland - Whangarei service?

Hmm, I really don’t think that FMS’s Islanders will be an acceptable alternative for most pax to the Q300 on AKL-WRE. Much though I love flying them on the Barrier run, where they have a more “authentic” feel than Barrier Air’s Grand Caravans. I don’t think FMS has aspirations to do much more than the Barrier, anyway - though never say never!
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:57 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
I ask, because if they wanted to boost WLG to daily, could one option be a triangular SIN - CHC / AKL - WIN - SIN service, given that's what SQ did for CBR, with SIN - SYD - CBR - SIN? Just a thought - not sure if it'd be viable.

Triangular services are a nightmare when it comes to keeping the load factor up. The CHC-WLG sector, for example, has to carry both SIN-WLG pax and CHC-SIN pax. You can easily imagine a scenario where a high number of SIN-WLG pax means that there’s insufficient space for intending CHC-SIN pax, but a lack of demand from WLG that day means the flight goes out from WLG half empty - despite turning away CHC-SIN pax.

Besides, aren’t they more likely to fly SIN-WLG-AKL/CHC-SIN and avoid any runway limitations at WKG?
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:52 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
I ask, because if they wanted to boost WLG to daily, could one option be a triangular SIN - CHC / AKL - WIN - SIN service, given that's what SQ did for CBR, with SIN - SYD - CBR - SIN? Just a thought - not sure if it'd be viable.

Triangular services are a nightmare when it comes to keeping the load factor up. The CHC-WLG sector, for example, has to carry both SIN-WLG pax and CHC-SIN pax. You can easily imagine a scenario where a high number of SIN-WLG pax means that there’s insufficient space for intending CHC-SIN pax, but a lack of demand from WLG that day means the flight goes out from WLG half empty - despite turning away CHC-SIN pax.

Besides, aren’t they more likely to fly SIN-WLG-AKL/CHC-SIN and avoid any runway limitations at WKG?


I agree here David, and I think it ‘works’ we don’t no how profitable it is in SIN-SYD-CBR-SIN as SYD is served 5x daily by SQ so there are plenty of other same day options. CHC has 1 daily flight already so this would likely be part of a second daily.

I’ll take a stab in the dark and say landing an A350 at WLG won’t be an issue even in the wet it will be safely doable 99% of the time, but it will be departing WLG that will be the issue for a non stop to SIN, just imo won’t happen, although a non stop would likely mean the long haul 253 seat version would be used so a lot lighter in terms off pax and seats.

It seems more likely imo that they will continue for the foreseeable future to do MEL-WLG even though MEL doesn’t need a WLG tag but WLG needs a MEL tag, and I’m guessing a regional A359 to take over.
 
smartplane
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:06 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
I wonder why we haven't heard anything yet. Part of me thinks that if the results of the testing were positive, that we would know about them - WLG would be plastering them in the media, trying to build up momentum for more flights. However, another view could be that WLG still wants its runway extension, so if the results were positive (which could work against the case for the extension), then they'd keep them quiet. I also wonder whether Boeing would ever test the 787 at WLG too. There's arguably also potential for the 787 at WLG, with the likes of SQ or TR to SIN (on the 788, 789 or 787-10), and/or CZ to CAN (on the 788 or 789). Hopefully we hear something soon!

You are right - WLG is still dreaming of a runway extension. In fact two extensions, one to satisfy ICAO review for existing users, and one for WB. The split is because the former should attract a higher % of central Government funding.

In respect to 787 trials at WLG, NZ will have made it quite clear to Boeing. We do not want to operate WLG 787 flights. Please do NOT undertake any 787 testing there.
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:44 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
PA515 wrote:
Air NZ will not be not ending AKL-WRE which is 27 flights a week in the 29 Oct 2018 schedule.

PA515 wrote:
Air NZ is committed to GIS and will not be ending AKL-GIS which is 32 flights a week in the 29 Oct 2018 schedule.

Are you saying this merely on the basis of the volume of existing flights, or do you have inside knowledge on this? I ask, because I wouldn't be convinced that both ports would be secured merely because at present, they have a couple of daily flights. Are GIS and WRE currently being served much more than WAG and other ports were, before their demise? I do hope that they keep both ports though!

Cheers,

C.

Inside knowledge is not necessary. The number of flights to WRE and GIS has increased, and Air NZ has said they are not withdrawing from any other regional destinations. Do some research if you don't believe me.

PA515
 
Unclekoru
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:05 am

NTLDaz wrote:

A point to think about is that there isn't much population in South Australia outside of ADL - not much of a catchment area - unlike SYD or BNE. WLG maybe has a bigger catchment which reduces the difference a bit. Agree with most of your points though.

WLG is just kind of in the wrong spot for many tourists to the Land of the Long Wide Vowel.


It is however a very good entry/departure point for both NZers traveling abroad and for tourists/VFR and business traffic heading to regional New Zealand. WLG has a decent NZ hub operation, something SIA has found quite helpful. Should acknowledge that ADL has transfer opportunities as well, although have no idea how prevalent connections are there.

planemanofnz wrote:
if ADL's flights to the likes of SYD, BNE and MEL were included as international, as they are for WLG, then ADL's size differential over WLG would be much, much greater. IMO, a far better way of looking at the market is 1) population size (ADL is 2-3x bigger than WLG in that metric), and 2) the amount of intercontinental flights currently sustained, without subsidy (ADL has DXB, DOH, KUL, SIN, CAN and others, whereas WLG has none). ADL also arguably has stronger inbound tourism potential due to things like the Barossa Valley and Kangaroo Island. Ultimately, SQ has been tried and tested at ADL for several decades, whereas the WLG service is only new and still building up - therefore, I think it'd be risky to boost it to non-stop and/or daily, at this stage. However, I may be wrong - perhaps those are just what SQ at WLG needs to do better.



It's difficult to get an accurate conclusion based on that logic. A large portion of long haul traffic ex WLG goes via AKL/CHC, and that is of course not counted as international traffic either. Not that I'm suggesting WLG has a bigger catchment area/market size etc, but like you, I simply don't know.

As QF is found of saying, WLG is a frequency sensitive market with a good amount of premium traffic for it's size, so it'll be interesting to see if SQ up gauge or add frequency. A simple up gauge may be the easier growth option (a smaller overall capacity increase vs an additional frequency or more), whereas additional services comes with their own obvious benefits but will be more challenging to fill (especially over winter). I imagine that it will ultimately depend on the outcome of the A350 continuous improvement programme. Or will they add an additional frequency (seasonal?) with the 772 as an interim measure? I agree with you though, daily seems unlikely for now, but who really knows...

planemanofnz wrote:
A has a population of 1.7 million, whereas New Zealand's lower North Island (south of TUO), has a population of about 1 million or less, I'd guess, with much of that actually arguably overlapping with AKL's catchment area (e.g. I'd argue people in places like NPE would still use AKL over WLG, as both are too far to drive to, and AKL offers far more options). Would you count the upper South Island as a catchment area for WLG too? Perhaps, but the effect of that on the numbers would be minor - ADL and SA would still be bigger.


As for catchments areas, if it has a convenient connecting flight and a bookable fare then it's in the catchment area. NZ is a good example of this, plenty of people connect through AKL when CHC or WLG would, all other things being equal, be more convenient options. The use of the wide body across the Tasman/PI was not (initially) driven by natural demand ex AKL but by utilisation, product and crewing considerations. The connecting traffic from the regions allows it to work. Further underpinned by the lack of product/frequency development from CHC/WLG and OZ-US traffic.
It sounds like english, but I can't understand a word you're saying
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:09 am

planemanofnz wrote:
a7ala wrote:
SQ

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
SQ

One other thought - does anyone know whether the issue with WLG's runway length for non-stop SIN flights is related to just take-off or landing, and not both of these? I ask, because if they wanted to boost WLG to daily, could one option be a triangular SIN - CHC / AKL - WIN - SIN service, given that's what SQ did for CBR, with SIN - SYD - CBR - SIN? Just a thought - not sure if it'd be viable.

Cheers,

C.


Seems like we're getting into the creative thinking space, why would SQ want to add such an imbalance to their CHC operations (2x SINCHC and 1x CHCSIN direct) or jeopardize an existing market if they turned CHC-SIN into CHC-WLG-SIN?

Who actually wants this the most

1) Singapore Airlines - or another carrier
2) Wellington Airport
3) Travelling & Paying Public

When you get to the same answer as I do, (2) then you'll start to see how unlikely this whole topic really is.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:30 am

planemanofnz wrote:
PA515 wrote:
Air NZ will not be not ending AKL-WRE which is 27 flights a week in the 29 Oct 2018 schedule.

PA515 wrote:
Air NZ is committed to GIS and will not be ending AKL-GIS which is 32 flights a week in the 29 Oct 2018 schedule.

Are you saying this merely on the basis of the volume of existing flights, or do you have inside knowledge on this? I ask, because I wouldn't be convinced that both ports would be secured merely because at present, they have a couple of daily flights. Are GIS and WRE currently being served much more than WAG and other ports were, before their demise? I do hope that they keep both ports though!

Cheers,

C.


What makes you say either are at risk?
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:34 am

PA515 wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
PA515 wrote:
Air NZ will not be not ending AKL-WRE which is 27 flights a week in the 29 Oct 2018 schedule.

PA515 wrote:
Air NZ is committed to GIS and will not be ending AKL-GIS which is 32 flights a week in the 29 Oct 2018 schedule.

Are you saying this merely on the basis of the volume of existing flights, or do you have inside knowledge on this? I ask, because I wouldn't be convinced that both ports would be secured merely because at present, they have a couple of daily flights. Are GIS and WRE currently being served much more than WAG and other ports were, before their demise? I do hope that they keep both ports though!

Cheers,

C.

Inside knowledge is not necessary. The number of flights to WRE and GIS has increased, and Air NZ has said they are not withdrawing from any other regional destinations. Do some research if you don't believe me.

PA515


PA515 - further to this, NZ has room to scale back before any withdrawal.

Also - FMS taking over so NZ can enter has never been NZ's approach to route withdrawals. Not saying they couldn't try this approach to improve PR but history supports this line of thinking in addition to growth and room to scale operations before anything got axed.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:31 am

PA515 wrote:
Air NZ has said they are not withdrawing from any other regional destinations. Do some research if you don't believe me.

I'm aware that this was said, but I note that in PPQ's case, they had said they were "happy" with PPQ only 6-12 months before it got the axe, and then proceeded to market themselves at the PPQ open day just before the axe was announced - what's being said publicly about GIS and WRE may not necessarily be what the position is internally. I do hope that they keep these two ports though!

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:35 am

NZ6 wrote:
What makes you say either are at risk?

IMO, it's more likely than not that they'll both be kept - however, there is a more than negligible chance that they could be dropped. For example, given NZ's fleet capacity upgrading strategy (e.g. ordering the 321NEO's and getting rid of the B1900's), is it that outlandish to think that the Q300's might be gone in the next decade, leaving the ATR's as the smallest sub-fleet? If that happens, WRE might not be able to support a sole-ATR operation? Add to that, NZ is now facing competition from Fly My Sky on AKL - WRE too, which adds another component to things (albeit as someone else said, the impact is likely to be minimal for now), as does oil increasing, and GDP slowing.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:42 am

NZ6 wrote:
Seems like we're getting into the creative thinking space ...

As a reminder, this is all based on SQ saying this week (in tandem with the regional 359 announcements for ADL and BNE) that they are looking to expand WLG, but haven't determined the best way to do so - we know that loads via MEL and CBR aren't/weren't amazing, and we know that WLG can't handle non-stop flights both ways, so yes, some creative thinking may be just what's needed.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:48 am

smartplane wrote:
In respect to 787 trials at WLG, NZ will have made it quite clear to Boeing. We do not want to operate WLG 787 flights. Please do NOT undertake any 787 testing there.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't it WLG - and not SQ or any other airline - that arranged with Airbus for the 359 trials at WLG? Therefore, NZ talking to Boeing may not have much of an impact on 787 testing at WLG, if WLG requests such testing to be done, and Boeing sees merit in it. Indeed, there are many potential 787 operators to WLG, including SQ on a 787-10 via Australia, or CZ on a 787-8 or 787-9 either non-stop from CAN, or via somewhere else. You might also see TR or other Asian carriers too.

Cheers,

C.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:01 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Seems like we're getting into the creative thinking space ...

As a reminder, this is all based on SQ saying this week (in tandem with the regional 359 announcements for ADL and BNE) that they are looking to expand WLG, but haven't determined the best way to do so - we know that loads via MEL and CBR aren't/weren't amazing, and we know that WLG can't handle non-stop flights both ways, so yes, some creative thinking may be just what's needed.

Cheers,

C.


I’m not sure but aren’t the Numbers you are quoting just WLG-MEL numbers so 160-180 on that sector roughly then a few more WLG-SIN? How they expand it will be interesting.id say frequency for now via MEL. I could be wrong.
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:08 am

planemanofnz wrote:
PA515 wrote:
Air NZ has said they are not withdrawing from any other regional destinations. Do some research if you don't believe me.

I'm aware that this was said, but I note that in PPQ's case, they had said they were "happy" with PPQ only 6-12 months before it got the axe, and then proceeded to market themselves at the PPQ open day just before the axe was announced - what's being said publicly about GIS and WRE may not necessarily be what the position is internally. I do hope that they keep these two ports though!

Cheers,

C.

PPQ was a whole different scenario to WRE or GIS. While NZ is a private company there is no way the government or the public would let them cut those two. PPQ is close enough to WLG and PMZ isn’t too far up the road either. GIS is simply too remote without air service and Auckland traffic is so bad and WRE has a large enough catchment to keep it. Of course WRE case would be strengthened when a new airport is built there with a bigger runway.
I still think the government should look to relocate Whenuapai base to Marsden with a joint civil/military airport there. The value of selling land in Whenuapai would more than pay for this. A new airport there could also act as a second airport for Auckland effectively with a similar drive time from around Albany to AKL during peak traffic once the motorway is finished to Wellsford.
59 types. 41 countries. 24 airlines.
 
NZAA
Posts: 165
Joined: Sat Jul 02, 2005 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:12 am

PA515 wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
Fly My Sky have announced scheduled flights between Auckland and Whangarei. The scheduled service will start on 23 October 2018, and will operate twice daily Monday to Friday. Could this be the start of the end for Air New Zealand's Auckland - Whangarei service?


No, Air NZ will not be not ending AKL-WRE which is 27 flights a week in the 29 Oct 2018 schedule.

planemanofnz wrote:
The Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) will invest $5.5 million in the redevelopment of Gisborne Airport, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones announced today. The total cost of the redevelopment is $12.5 million and will be co-funded by the PGF, Eastland Group Ltd and the Eastland Community Trust. The funding will be administered as a loan. Hopefully NZ remains committed to Gisborne, and doesn't pull out, which may render this development pointless. That being said, even if NZ did pull out, I guess 3C would step-in?


Yes, Air NZ is committed to GIS and will not be ending AKL-GIS which is 32 flights a week, or WLG-GIS which is 14 flights a week in the 29 Oct 2018 schedule.

PA515


I have some of what planeman is on.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6976
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:59 pm

cchan wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/280416/air-new-zealand-nw18-international-service-changes-as-of-06sep18/

Further changes for NW for NZ long haul. I feel there are more to come still, where will the 789 code 2 frames go that are coming off IAH? HKG was mentioned but nothing yet, maybe TYO or PER if not HKG?

Still nothing concrete announced on the A321 which will be delivered soon to.

I have no idea why TG would try AKL-HKT, no competition maybe, they do HKT-FRA now. AKL-HKT imo is NZ territory, I wonder if we will see a seasonal service launch next year? Might depend on the 787 issues?


HKG is usually quite full in Y class, especially during northern winter, 789V2 won’t provide enough seats in Y.


CX are going 10Y on their 77W’s which AKL gets over the peak period. So some extra Y seats as part of the JV there. NZ may be able to run the 772 still however in terms of having enough frames. Then it’s a case of where the 789 V2 goes, HND/NRT/PER?
 
NZ6
Posts: 1169
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:02 am

planemanofnz wrote:
PA515 wrote:
Air NZ has said they are not withdrawing from any other regional destinations. Do some research if you don't believe me.

I'm aware that this was said, but I note that in PPQ's case, they had said they were "happy" with PPQ only 6-12 months before it got the axe, and then proceeded to market themselves at the PPQ open day just before the axe was announced - what's being said publicly about GIS and WRE may not necessarily be what the position is internally. I do hope that they keep these two ports though!

Cheers,

C.


So all this tell you is that you can't fully understand how 'successful', 'profitable', 'demanding', 'lucrative' a route is based on 'public' information. Unless you see the operators books and also know what's being done from sales and marketing tactics all you're really doing is attempting to join dots and coming up with an individual theory. You're not predicting what the airline is doing with any real level of accuracy.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1169
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:16 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
What makes you say either are at risk?

IMO, it's more likely than not that they'll both be kept - however, there is a more than negligible chance that they could be dropped. For example, given NZ's fleet capacity upgrading strategy (e.g. ordering the 321NEO's and getting rid of the B1900's), is it that outlandish to think that the Q300's might be gone in the next decade, leaving the ATR's as the smallest sub-fleet? If that happens, WRE might not be able to support a sole-ATR operation? Add to that, NZ is now facing competition from Fly My Sky on AKL - WRE too, which adds another component to things (albeit as someone else said, the impact is likely to be minimal for now), as does oil increasing, and GDP slowing.

Cheers,

C.


Removing The B1900's when
1. Ageing fleet and extreme lack of suitable replacement equipment
2. All bar 3 routes were Q300 upgradeable.

Meaning any replacement order would likely be small and would be costly to run and maintain. This being done all for low or unprofitable routes. In the likes of WHK, a route which are also accessible via TRG and is <1-hour drive. To put that in context, that's what some Aucklanders do to commute to AKL.

There's nothing to suggest the Q300's will be removed.

The A321 up-gauge is about adding capacity into routes which are already heavily served. For example, how do you capacity into AKLWLG when you already have 0630, 0700, 0730,0800 departures? Adding an up-gauge in equipment is a great way of doing it.

There are two different things going on here, they're not related.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1169
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:25 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Seems like we're getting into the creative thinking space ...

As a reminder, this is all based on SQ saying this week (in tandem with the regional 359 announcements for ADL and BNE) that they are looking to expand WLG, but haven't determined the best way to do so - we know that loads via MEL and CBR aren't/weren't amazing, and we know that WLG can't handle non-stop flights both ways, so yes, some creative thinking may be just what's needed.

Cheers,

C.


Sure, however

1) SIN-CBR-WLG was subsidised and reported of consistent low loads.
2) SIN-MEL-WLG needs time.
3) SIN-WLG-SIN requires further infrastructure investment

So.

1) Is this airline political talk?
2) Is there airline talking about another switch, CBR to MEL to XXX?
3) What's being further subsidised in additional to the current flight?

My view is...
4) Is the airline just saying the light demand requires a direct flight to really come to anything so we're looking into it but ultimately requires someone to spend money in WLG, hopefully, these comments will influence councillors and or the public into completing the upgrades at WLG airport based on the promise/hope of SQ doing more?
 
nz2
Posts: 249
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:38 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:51 am

I was in Nelson over the weekend, always surprises me that those old Virgin planes are still sitting there, its been some time. Anyone know whats going on with them?
 
zkncj
Posts: 3268
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:25 am

nz2 wrote:
I was in Nelson over the weekend, always surprises me that those old Virgin planes are still sitting there, its been some time. Anyone know whats going on with them?


They are still on lease by VA - basically VA paying the lease out, while the planes sit around doing nothing.

They are only 6-7 years old too! seems such an waste to have them sitting around doing nothin, would assume that lease agreement doesn't allow sub-lease. Otherwise surely someone would of leased them by now.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4296
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:53 am

zkncj wrote:
nz2 wrote:
I was in Nelson over the weekend, always surprises me that those old Virgin planes are still sitting there, its been some time. Anyone know whats going on with them?


They are still on lease by VA - basically VA paying the lease out, while the planes sit around doing nothing.

They are only 6-7 years old too! seems such an waste to have them sitting around doing nothin, would assume that lease agreement doesn't allow sub-lease. Otherwise surely someone would of leased them by now.

It'd have been neat to see them try a regional New Zealand operation with the ATR's, perhaps hubbing from the South Island (not overlapping with JQ too much) - I guess it's cheaper to have them on the ground though, than flying likely loss-making routes.

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ321
Posts: 1082
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:42 am

What are these Virgin planes at Nelson? I haven't heard anything about this to date.
Plane mad!
 
tealnz
Posts: 581
Joined: Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:47 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:04 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
we know that WLG can't handle non-stop flights both ways

I think that's yet to be confirmed. Zeke I think last year quoted numbers indicating that, contrary to the claims made in the airport extension study, the A359 could do full pax to long-haul Asian destinations and would have no problem landing on either runway (again contrary to the airport study). We haven't seen definitive comment from Airbus (even after the recent wet runway testing) or from the airlines. If it is in fact technically feasible SQ would be best positioned to try it given their experience with the 777 and their knowledge of the market.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1169
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:03 am

NZ321 wrote:
What are these Virgin planes at Nelson? I haven't heard anything about this to date.


Some ex Virgin ATR's.

A quick google should pull something up - http://nzcivair.blogspot.com/2017/07/vi ... today.html

I said a few months ago Air Chathams should pick up a ATR or two...
 
A350OZ
Posts: 144
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:20 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Mon Sep 10, 2018 5:10 am

NZ6 wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
What are these Virgin planes at Nelson? I haven't heard anything about this to date.


Some ex Virgin ATR's.

A quick google should pull something up - http://nzcivair.blogspot.com/2017/07/vi ... today.html

I said a few months ago Air Chathams should pick up a ATR or two...


You learn something new everyday, thanks for this. I was not aware of the 500s still sitting out their lease term since they left the VA fleet, what a shame and waste really. How many are there at NSN? According to planespotters.net there are 5 of the 6 stored at NSN, is this correct?
 
zkncj
Posts: 3268
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:13 am

NZ6 wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
What are these Virgin planes at Nelson? I haven't heard anything about this to date.


Some ex Virgin ATR's.

A quick google should pull something up - http://nzcivair.blogspot.com/2017/07/vi ... today.html

I said a few months ago Air Chathams should pick up a ATR or two...


Probably to new for Air Chats at this stage NZ's 1999/2000 ATR72-500s are probably more in there price range?
 
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Zkpilot
Posts: 4326
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:09 am

Saw an article online today that says the A350 is in the lead for NZ and that it is 50:50 for the QF order. Both manufacturers have apparently made some big improvements for QF with the engines for the Boeing looking to come in better than thought. On the Airbus side they have apparently offered to make a A350-1000ULR version (bump up the MTOW and activate/add on a fuel tank).
For NZ the standard A350-1000 will do fine for NY and it would only be if they wanted non-stop to Europe/UK that they would need a ULR version.
59 types. 41 countries. 24 airlines.
 
NZ321
Posts: 1082
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:04 am

Zkpilot wrote:
Saw an article online today that says the A350 is in the lead for NZ and that it is 50:50 for the QF order. Both manufacturers have apparently made some big improvements for QF with the engines for the Boeing looking to come in better than thought. On the Airbus side they have apparently offered to make a A350-1000ULR version (bump up the MTOW and activate/add on a fuel tank).
For NZ the standard A350-1000 will do fine for NY and it would only be if they wanted non-stop to Europe/UK that they would need a ULR version.


Exciting news indeed if this is true. Fingers crossed. I am hoping after my memorable A359 travel experiences this past year that NZ will opt for this plane.
Plane mad!
 
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Zkpilot
Posts: 4326
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:20 pm

NZ321 wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
Saw an article online today that says the A350 is in the lead for NZ and that it is 50:50 for the QF order. Both manufacturers have apparently made some big improvements for QF with the engines for the Boeing looking to come in better than thought. On the Airbus side they have apparently offered to make a A350-1000ULR version (bump up the MTOW and activate/add on a fuel tank).
For NZ the standard A350-1000 will do fine for NY and it would only be if they wanted non-stop to Europe/UK that they would need a ULR version.


Exciting news indeed if this is true. Fingers crossed. I am hoping after my memorable A359 travel experiences this past year that NZ will opt for this plane.
A350 advantages - ready now, more spacious economy cabin (per seat), lighter (NZ uses it’s WB fleet for short flights too), not as big as 779.
779 can haul more though, provided more capacity, offers more room in business and premium economy (depending on configuration), apparently more freight ability, commonality with existing fleet.
59 types. 41 countries. 24 airlines.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1169
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:46 pm

Zkpilot wrote:
Saw an article online today that says the A350 is in the lead for NZ and that it is 50:50 for the QF order. Both manufacturers have apparently made some big improvements for QF with the engines for the Boeing looking to come in better than thought. On the Airbus side they have apparently offered to make a A350-1000ULR version (bump up the MTOW and activate/add on a fuel tank).
For NZ the standard A350-1000 will do fine for NY and it would only be if they wanted non-stop to Europe/UK that they would need a ULR version.


Can you share the article?

I'm also hearing strong rumours this is the 'preferred' choice. When I sit back and think on a personal level about the direction the airline is going - what both aircraft offer I'm feeling more and more confident the A350 is the only real contender.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1169
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:55 pm

Zkpilot wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
Saw an article online today that says the A350 is in the lead for NZ and that it is 50:50 for the QF order. Both manufacturers have apparently made some big improvements for QF with the engines for the Boeing looking to come in better than thought. On the Airbus side they have apparently offered to make a A350-1000ULR version (bump up the MTOW and activate/add on a fuel tank).
For NZ the standard A350-1000 will do fine for NY and it would only be if they wanted non-stop to Europe/UK that they would need a ULR version.


Exciting news indeed if this is true. Fingers crossed. I am hoping after my memorable A359 travel experiences this past year that NZ will opt for this plane.
A350 advantages - ready now, more spacious economy cabin (per seat), lighter (NZ uses it’s WB fleet for short flights too), not as big as 779.
779 can haul more though, provided more capacity, offers more room in business and premium economy (depending on configuration), apparently more freight ability, commonality with existing fleet.


He's a question though, does NZ want to or need to 'haul more'?

When you look back 10-15 years ago you had 2 x 744's AKLLAX, for a period it was 3x daily. Now, you see an alliance with UA over SFO. NZ's opened IAH and ORD and have been clear about strengthening this with more routes.

HKG has an alliance with CX up to 3x daily.
SIN has an alliance with SQ up to 3x daily.
BJS has an allaince operated by CA.

YVR could still support more frequency.

I would like to see more Japanese ports open and protect Tokyo with the premium market.

Moving forward I believe NZ will continue to focus on alliances, frequency and connecting more ports direct vs operating capacity into main hubs.

The 777 has really become the new 767 for some markets.
 
Polo5959
Posts: 9
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:18 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:41 am

Long time lurker on this thread.

I just wanted to start a discussion around both HLZ and TRG. What does everyone think about the future of these ports?

They are both very populated areas, growing fast and are located within driving distance to AKL.

In my opinion there are two routes that stick out to me as needing competition and big enough to sustain two competitors.

HLZ-WLG this is a route that surprises me hasn’t been started by JQ with either a jet or q300s. I’m also surprised NZ hasn’t put the odd a320 in the morning or evening on this sector.

The other route is TRG - AKL. This route has substantially grown from 5x daily q300 to now a mix of 9-10x daily q300/ATR in the space of 2-3 years. The commute to Auckland is only going to get longer with no planned upgrades. It is now easily a 3 hour commute.

Both these ports have huge growth potential and are very underserved.
 
zkeoj
Posts: 1173
Joined: Sun Feb 27, 2005 3:00 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:09 am

Polo5959 wrote:
Long time lurker on this thread.

I just wanted to start a discussion around both HLZ and TRG. What does everyone think about the future of these ports?

They are both very populated areas, growing fast and are located within driving distance to AKL.

In my opinion there are two routes that stick out to me as needing competition and big enough to sustain two competitors.

HLZ-WLG this is a route that surprises me hasn’t been started by JQ with either a jet or q300s. I’m also surprised NZ hasn’t put the odd a320 in the morning or evening on this sector.

The other route is TRG - AKL. This route has substantially grown from 5x daily q300 to now a mix of 9-10x daily q300/ATR in the space of 2-3 years. The commute to Auckland is only going to get longer with no planned upgrades. It is now easily a 3 hour commute.

Both these ports have huge growth potential and are very underserved.


Not sure about HLZ, but I too have wondered for a while why JQ doesn't do AKL-TRG? NZ is very busy on that route, greater Tauranga is growing fast, and the drive is, as you said, tedious. Especially if AKL is not your end destination, but you need to connect to/from a long haul. I would think AKL-TRG would print money for JQ, but obviously they have more insight than I do, and a reason why they haven't jumped on it (yet)...
 
NZ6
Posts: 1169
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:16 am

Polo5959 wrote:
Long time lurker on this thread.

I just wanted to start a discussion around both HLZ and TRG. What does everyone think about the future of these ports?

They are both very populated areas, growing fast and are located within driving distance to AKL.

In my opinion there are two routes that stick out to me as needing competition and big enough to sustain two competitors.

HLZ-WLG this is a route that surprises me hasn’t been started by JQ with either a jet or q300s. I’m also surprised NZ hasn’t put the odd a320 in the morning or evening on this sector.

The other route is TRG - AKL. This route has substantially grown from 5x daily q300 to now a mix of 9-10x daily q300/ATR in the space of 2-3 years. The commute to Auckland is only going to get longer with no planned upgrades. It is now easily a 3 hour commute.

Both these ports have huge growth potential and are very underserved.


Welcome;

A couple of comments which you may or may not be aware of.

About a decade ago there was a feasibility study done to migrate TRG and ROT into the one airport at Paengaroa (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tauranga_Airport) It never went anywhere and now with the growth of TRG, closure of WHK (for NZ) and ROT's limited runway growth potential it was short-sighted in my own opinion.

All the ex-Aucklander's living down there will soon start complaining about the amount of air traffic noise taking them all home. Especially given the Airport is at the Mount.

Secondly, the way forward could be something like this (https://www.greaterauckland.org.nz/2017 ... apid-rail/) however with our narrow gauge railway track in NZ's speed especially around bends is severely limited making the journey time better but not world class better.

Realistically, both HLZ and TRG could handle much more traffic and for TRG it could and will see more ATR's in the coming years.

Frustratingly I don't foresee many changes over the next 10-15 years.

If money wasn't a factor place a purpose-built airport between HLZ, TRG & ROT. Running high-speed electric rail even if that was elevated monorail type system to avoid disrupting farms and existing infrastructure but that will never happen.
 
NYKiwi
Posts: 63
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:41 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:26 am

So wanted to circle back with everyone since I returned from NZ, as some gave me pointers for seating on the 787 out of IAH. I was lucky to score 3 seats out of IAH so was a good ride...coming back had an empty seat next to me so wasn't bad. Pitch is tight in back section think it states 31" very suprised at NZ for doing this should be 32" but guess that's the bean counters. Overall 787 was nice experience and service was quick, ki da makes the 773 look old.

Akl airport is still a great airport smallish I know most complain it's a shopping mall, but really still pleasant but does make me think they need to start the domestic pier and few more intl gates as we had to park and wait for buses. Surprised would have thought the IAH flight would get some gate priority after long flight.

Glad to see Air Chathams expanding think for a small country NZ is lucky for air service I now REX in Aus was always struggling.
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