New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

NZ6 · Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:29 am

More recent update; https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new ... d=11904840

Polo5959 · Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:19 am

Yes I remember the study many years ago with the new airport. It would be interesting having an airport service TRG, ROT, WHK. I agree with you in that I don’t think it will happen in the next 15-20 years. I don’t think it will be much longer until NZ upgrade the route to mostly ATRs. Especially since the tarmac can only handle 4 aircraft.

I’ve always thought TRG-AKL is a no brainer for JQ. It’s close to Auckland so it easy to bus passengers if anything goes wrong and staff can easily be transported down there. It seems like a natural extension of their AKL hub to connect TRG. However given the recent tie up between QF and NZ, any regional expansion for JQ may be limited.

NZ6 · Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:55 am

And speaking on this topic, let's merge the VA ATR's into JQ's regional operation.

Let's say JQ pick up just two frames, release a Q300 for AKLTRG and use the ATR's on AKL-NSN, TRG-CHC/NPE-CHC that'd really set the cat amongst the pigeons.

Problem is.

JQ can't get enough Pilots
JQ isn't really moving any market share off NZ

qf789 · Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:23 am

Air New Zealand 789 NK-NZQ returns to PAE after a flight management and thrust management function certification flight

https://twitter.com/mattcawby/status/10 ... 5766479872

ZK-NBT · Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:45 am

NZ6 wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
NZ321 wrote:

Exciting news indeed if this is true. Fingers crossed. I am hoping after my memorable A359 travel experiences this past year that NZ will opt for this plane.
A350 advantages - ready now, more spacious economy cabin (per seat), lighter (NZ uses it’s WB fleet for short flights too), not as big as 779.
779 can haul more though, provided more capacity, offers more room in business and premium economy (depending on configuration), apparently more freight ability, commonality with existing fleet.

He's a question though, does NZ want to or need to 'haul more'?

When you look back 10-15 years ago you had 2 x 744's AKLLAX, for a period it was 3x daily. Now, you see an alliance with UA over SFO. NZ's opened IAH and ORD and have been clear about strengthening this with more routes.

HKG has an alliance with CX up to 3x daily.
SIN has an alliance with SQ up to 3x daily.
BJS has an allaince operated by CA.

YVR could still support more frequency.

I would like to see more Japanese ports open and protect Tokyo with the premium market.

Moving forward I believe NZ will continue to focus on alliances, frequency and connecting more ports direct vs operating capacity into main hubs.

The 777 has really become the new 767 for some markets.

I agree do they need more lift is a good question. I could see several almost more 35K’s initially than 359’s as a 772 replacement, let’s say 7 35K’s and 5 359’s. Basically the 35K 330 odd seats replaces the 77W 342 seats, maybe a slight reconfigure with a few J seats removed for more Y? Routes to LAX/LHR/SFO go 35K with the 77W’s used to upgauge routes like HKG/YVR, while the 359’s 320 odd seats do ORD/IAH/GRU?

789’s for everything else.

zkojq · Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:17 am

Does anyone know why NZ281 is delayed so heavily today? Supposed to be running at least three hours late but I can't even tell if it's actually left Singapore. Auckland Airport's website says it has been rescheduled.

Whoopeecock · Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:14 am

NZ6 wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
What are these Virgin planes at Nelson? I haven't heard anything about this to date.

Some ex Virgin ATR's.

A quick google should pull something up - http://nzcivair.blogspot.com/2017/07/vi ... today.html

I said a few months ago Air Chathams should pick up a ATR or two...

Must be a bit more than storage. Every week they seem to take one away to the Air Nelson maintenance hangar and it’ll come back missing an egine, etc. not sure if they’re sowly overhauling them, or robbing them for parts to keep other ATRs flying. You wouldn’t thnkntheyd be using them on Air NZ planes. The windows are all covered up still.

cchan · Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:01 am

Was reading NZ’s inflight magazine this month and noticed 77E fleet shows 10 aircrafts. Any updates on when the 2nd leased 77E going to arrive?

NZ6 · Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:48 pm

zkojq wrote:
Does anyone know why NZ281 is delayed so heavily today? Supposed to be running at least three hours late but I can't even tell if it's actually left Singapore. Auckland Airport's website says it has been rescheduled.

Engineering, ETD 0755L 12/09/2018 so almost a day late.

Zkpilot · Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:21 am

Found it!
https://www.airlineratings.com/news/qan ... nife-edge/
Agree with ZK-NBT that the A35J is going to be the main option for NZ if they chose the Airbus option as the A359 isn’t much larger than the 789. Of course some might be needed for ULH perhaps.

NZ6 · Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:42 am

Zkpilot wrote:
Found it!
https://www.airlineratings.com/news/qan ... nife-edge/
Agree with ZK-NBT that the A35J is going to be the main option for NZ if they chose the Airbus option as the A359 isn’t much larger than the 789. Of course some might be needed for ULH perhaps.

Thanks for sharing. Will be interesting to see what QF does fleet wise over the coming decade.

If NZ went A350 could we see a single type for all mid/long haul at some point?

Personally, I think the A350-900 is still too large for some markets but not by a lot. 20-30 seats too big perhaps.

Does NZ scale back their 787 fleet and increase the number of A350 frames?

Currently, NZ will have 14x 787 and 15x 777 mix.

Will we see something like 5x A35J, 18x A359 and 8x 787-9

Providing growth of two frames.

Zkpilot · Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:39 am

NZ6 wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
Found it!
https://www.airlineratings.com/news/qan ... nife-edge/
Agree with ZK-NBT that the A35J is going to be the main option for NZ if they chose the Airbus option as the A359 isn’t much larger than the 789. Of course some might be needed for ULH perhaps.

Thanks for sharing. Will be interesting to see what QF does fleet wise over the coming decade.

If NZ went A350 could we see a single type for all mid/long haul at some point?

Personally, I think the A350-900 is still too large for some markets but not by a lot. 20-30 seats too big perhaps.

Does NZ scale back their 787 fleet and increase the number of A350 frames?

Currently, NZ will have 14x 787 and 15x 777 mix.

Will we see something like 5x A35J, 18x A359 and 8x 787-9

Providing growth of two frames.

Nah I think they’ll keep both for the following reasons:
1) Size - The 789 is still quite a bit smaller than the A359 and by all accounts more efficient.
2) Not putting all eggs in one basket - as we’ve seen how much disruption the 787 issues have caused, imagine if something happened with only one fleet type.
3) Keep both Boeing and Airbus on their best behaviour. Hard to do if you don’t have the other in your fleet. Remember also that Airbus has the shorthaul fleet sewn up.

I think we will see the fleet by 2025 consisting of 12x A35J, 7x A359 (or A359ULR), 13x 789.
That results in a fleet with 5x more aircraft than NZ currently has (not incl the leased birds) - not NZ currently has 11x 789 and the extra 777s are covering out of service 789.

Also remember that NZ is getting A321NEO which can takeover some of the shorter flights currently operated by the widebodies. So a decent amount of growth there.

NZ6 · Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:21 am

Zkpilot wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
Found it!
https://www.airlineratings.com/news/qan ... nife-edge/
Agree with ZK-NBT that the A35J is going to be the main option for NZ if they chose the Airbus option as the A359 isn’t much larger than the 789. Of course some might be needed for ULH perhaps.

Thanks for sharing. Will be interesting to see what QF does fleet wise over the coming decade.

If NZ went A350 could we see a single type for all mid/long haul at some point?

Personally, I think the A350-900 is still too large for some markets but not by a lot. 20-30 seats too big perhaps.

Does NZ scale back their 787 fleet and increase the number of A350 frames?

Currently, NZ will have 14x 787 and 15x 777 mix.

Will we see something like 5x A35J, 18x A359 and 8x 787-9

Providing growth of two frames.

Nah I think they’ll keep both for the following reasons:
1) Size - The 789 is still quite a bit smaller than the A359 and by all accounts more efficient.
2) Not putting all eggs in one basket - as we’ve seen how much disruption the 787 issues have caused, imagine if something happened with only one fleet type.
3) Keep both Boeing and Airbus on their best behaviour. Hard to do if you don’t have the other in your fleet. Remember also that Airbus has the shorthaul fleet sewn up.

I think we will see the fleet by 2025 consisting of 12x A35J, 7x A359 (or A359ULR), 13x 789.
That results in a fleet with 5x more aircraft than NZ currently has (not incl the leased birds) - not NZ currently has 11x 789 and the extra 777s are covering out of service 789.

Also remember that NZ is getting A321NEO which can takeover some of the shorter flights currently operated by the widebodies. So a decent amount of growth there.

Yeah, the 787 is better suited to "lighter" routes, we're talking about the first delivery being around 2022 so 4-5years away and initially replacing just the 772's.

At this time the oldest 787 will be 8 years old, just over halfway to traditional retirement and the 77W will be replaced first.

There is a real chance we'll see between 10-14x 787's and then 15-17 A350. Question is will there be a mix, I'm starting to wonder if NZ will move away from the 350+ seat market altogether.

Personally, I think we'll see a boring order to replace 8x 772 with 8x A359 and options for X number. 18-24 months later NZ will exercise some rights and announce a 77W replacement. Then during the early 2020's NZ will also take options on 1-3 more frames, most likely A359 in my opinion.

At around 2025-2030 NZ will start to make noise about the 787 future.

Zkpilot · Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:25 am

NZ6 wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

Thanks for sharing. Will be interesting to see what QF does fleet wise over the coming decade.

If NZ went A350 could we see a single type for all mid/long haul at some point?

Personally, I think the A350-900 is still too large for some markets but not by a lot. 20-30 seats too big perhaps.

Does NZ scale back their 787 fleet and increase the number of A350 frames?

Currently, NZ will have 14x 787 and 15x 777 mix.

Will we see something like 5x A35J, 18x A359 and 8x 787-9

Providing growth of two frames.

Nah I think they’ll keep both for the following reasons:
1) Size - The 789 is still quite a bit smaller than the A359 and by all accounts more efficient.
2) Not putting all eggs in one basket - as we’ve seen how much disruption the 787 issues have caused, imagine if something happened with only one fleet type.
3) Keep both Boeing and Airbus on their best behaviour. Hard to do if you don’t have the other in your fleet. Remember also that Airbus has the shorthaul fleet sewn up.

I think we will see the fleet by 2025 consisting of 12x A35J, 7x A359 (or A359ULR), 13x 789.
That results in a fleet with 5x more aircraft than NZ currently has (not incl the leased birds) - not NZ currently has 11x 789 and the extra 777s are covering out of service 789.

Also remember that NZ is getting A321NEO which can takeover some of the shorter flights currently operated by the widebodies. So a decent amount of growth there.

Yeah, the 787 is better suited to "lighter" routes, we're talking about the first delivery being around 2022 so 4-5years away and initially replacing just the 772's.

At this time the oldest 787 will be 8 years old, just over halfway to traditional retirement and the 77W will be replaced first.

There is a real chance we'll see between 10-14x 787's and then 15-17 A350. Question is will there be a mix, I'm starting to wonder if NZ will move away from the 350+ seat market altogether.

Personally, I think we'll see a boring order to replace 8x 772 with 8x A359 and options for X number. 18-24 months later NZ will exercise some rights and announce a 77W replacement. Then during the early 2020's NZ will also take options on 1-3 more frames, most likely A359 in my opinion.

At around 2025-2030 NZ will start to make noise about the 787 future.

The big factors are going to be the global economy and fuel prices. If the economy doesn’t go into recession and fuel prices allow for further growth then I think the timeframe will be brought forward by both NZ and QF and it’s going to be a bit of a race for NY. Other consideration is that ORD is also a touch too far for 789 in NZ configuration so that would be a prime candidate for A359 along with EWR. NZ is probably eyeing up Brazil and again the current 789 configuration doesn’t help there.

Only other thought is if Boeing comes through with the goods for the MoM. Could potentially replace the 789 with that at some point for the likes of HNL/DPS/PER and get more A359 for other routes.

ZK-NBT · Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:32 am

NZ6 wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

Thanks for sharing. Will be interesting to see what QF does fleet wise over the coming decade.

If NZ went A350 could we see a single type for all mid/long haul at some point?

Personally, I think the A350-900 is still too large for some markets but not by a lot. 20-30 seats too big perhaps.

Does NZ scale back their 787 fleet and increase the number of A350 frames?

Currently, NZ will have 14x 787 and 15x 777 mix.

Will we see something like 5x A35J, 18x A359 and 8x 787-9

Providing growth of two frames.

Nah I think they’ll keep both for the following reasons:
1) Size - The 789 is still quite a bit smaller than the A359 and by all accounts more efficient.
2) Not putting all eggs in one basket - as we’ve seen how much disruption the 787 issues have caused, imagine if something happened with only one fleet type.
3) Keep both Boeing and Airbus on their best behaviour. Hard to do if you don’t have the other in your fleet. Remember also that Airbus has the shorthaul fleet sewn up.

I think we will see the fleet by 2025 consisting of 12x A35J, 7x A359 (or A359ULR), 13x 789.
That results in a fleet with 5x more aircraft than NZ currently has (not incl the leased birds) - not NZ currently has 11x 789 and the extra 777s are covering out of service 789.

Also remember that NZ is getting A321NEO which can takeover some of the shorter flights currently operated by the widebodies. So a decent amount of growth there.

Yeah, the 787 is better suited to "lighter" routes, we're talking about the first delivery being around 2022 so 4-5years away and initially replacing just the 772's.

At this time the oldest 787 will be 8 years old, just over halfway to traditional retirement and the 77W will be replaced first.

There is a real chance we'll see between 10-14x 787's and then 15-17 A350. Question is will there be a mix, I'm starting to wonder if NZ will move away from the 350+ seat market altogether.

Personally, I think we'll see a boring order to replace 8x 772 with 8x A359 and options for X number. 18-24 months later NZ will exercise some rights and announce a 77W replacement. Then during the early 2020's NZ will also take options on 1-3 more frames, most likely A359 in my opinion.

At around 2025-2030 NZ will start to make noise about the 787 future.

How many 789’s are owned ba leased? Given they are already in the fleet I guess they could return a few lease frames early if they need to. 14 is quite a decent fleet for a carrier NZ’s size as is 15 777’s. I’d see eventually. There is also the 787-10 which is an option for Asia, however if they go the A350 routes would probably see 787-10’s as less likely given the fleet mix size.

I’d see something along the lines if they order the A350 once they replace the 77W’s in the day the mid late 2020’s of, I could see more 35K’s and less 359’s.

14x 789, 18J 21W 263Y or 27J 33W 215Y
12x 359, 30J 40W 230Y
9x 35K, 44J 54W 220Y

35K for LAX/LHR/SFO/YVR
359 for HKG/GRU/ORD/IAH
789 for SIN/NRT/HND/PVG/TPE/KIX/EZE/DPS/SGN/PER/PPT

I’ve added GRU, there will be other new routes which there is a bit of room for plus additional flights to existing destinations, 35 frames I’ve got there.

thegrandvizier · Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:48 am

I noticed on FlightAware a Qlink Q400 due YBBN-YSNF-NZAA tomorrow. For Jetstar perhaps?

777ER · Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:01 am

thegrandvizier wrote:
I noticed on FlightAware a Qlink Q400 due YBBN-YSNF-NZAA tomorrow. For Jetstar perhaps?

Link please as I can't find anything on flightaware

PA515 · Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:30 pm

777ER wrote:
thegrandvizier wrote:
I noticed on FlightAware a Qlink Q400 due YBBN-YSNF-NZAA tomorrow. For Jetstar perhaps?

Link please as I can't find anything on flightaware

I found something on flightaware for a Q400 BNE-NLK as QF13 that was meant to be on Wednesday 12th. It later disappeared. There was no 'Tail Number' but there was a photo of VH-QON which has been at TSV since 02 Sep for a repaint. The QF Link flights are in the QF2xxx series and from memory positioning flights are QF27xx. Could be a mistake or a Q400 going to JQ. A repaint takes 11 to 14 days, so in theory would not depart TSV until the 13th at the earliest.

PA515

nz2 · Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:29 am

I dont understand why there is such support for the 350 here, the 787 or 777 are both excellent aircraft and I would personally chose a Boeing over Airbus, I just feel more confident in their engineering integrity. As for comfort I am plenty comfortable in Boeing's although the NZ J seats are no longer cutting edge and I actually like the PE better in regards layout/orientation when travelling with the wife and are in particular the better value for the respective money paid, but never say no to the upgrade!

cchan · Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:11 am

I have no preference for Airbus or Boeing. I don’t see much chance NZ will order A350. NZ does not have a large fleet, they have to invest quite substantially to support a fleet of 10-15 A350s, it just does not make much sense unless they are offered a very good deal. Whereas if NZ goes for 787-10 and 777-9 combination, they already have a lot of the supporting infrastructure and trained personnel.

aerorobnz · Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:47 am

What is in favour for the A350 is the fact that it isn't the 787, which means it is unaffected by the ongoing defects and operational restrictions that have snowed in NZ with delays and cancellations and other major planning issues. There is more than just fleet commonality at stake, however, NZ does have sizeable Airbus orders and maintenance stores as well - there are plenty of operators that have A350/787 and even 777/787/A350 mixed fleets, For most people here, favouring the A350 stems from the fact that the aircraft is far more comfortable spec wise to fly than the 787. The key for me is who offers the aircraft for delivery at the time NZ wants it.

77west · Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:02 am

I reckon a 787-10 order to cover the Asian routes (replacing / upgauging 772) and 777-9 to replace / upgauge the 77W routes is the most likely. With the T1000-10 RR has rid itself of the current 787 engine issues, and with the 777-9 there is commonality of type within the existing fleet. That also opens them up to the 777-8 for a potential NYC nonstop...

qf789 · Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:09 am

Air New Zealand engineering team will do a customer walk around today on ZK-NZQ, where teams inspect both interior and exterior of the aircraft

https://twitter.com/philipkirk6/status/ ... 2471134208

NZ321 · Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:10 am

Nice shots thanks

777ER · Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:52 am

RIP to Bob Leask who has an extensive photo collection here on A.Net. Bob uptill last month was a Moderator on both the Wellington Airport Spotters Page and NZ Aviation Page on Facebook but due to declining health had to stand down.

On behalf of the Moderating Team, Bob RIP and enjoy your landscape and aviation photography from above

LaunchDetected · Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:05 am

nz2 wrote:
I dont understand why there is such support for the 350 here, the 787 or 777 are both excellent aircraft and I would personally chose a Boeing over Airbus, I just feel more confident in their engineering integrity. As for comfort I am plenty comfortable in Boeing's although the NZ J seats are no longer cutting edge and I actually like the PE better in regards layout/orientation when travelling with the wife and are in particular the better value for the respective money paid, but never say no to the upgrade!

Because airline business doesn't deal with baseless preferences like "more confident in their engineering integrity". It's all about economic factors.

cchan · Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:20 pm

Saw on Flightradar24 that NZ6092 is scheduled PAE-AKL on 15/09. Wondering which aircraft will this be?

ZK-NBT · Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:15 pm

cchan wrote:
Saw on Flightradar24 that NZ6092 is scheduled PAE-AKL on 15/09. Wondering which aircraft will this be?

789 ZK-NZN, unless NZQ is getting delivered first, both due in the next wee while.

TheLifehouse · Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:53 pm

Anyone know how the repainting is going?

My understanding is that there is still 1 772, 1 ATR and a handful of Dash 8 Q300s still in the old livery while ZK-OKF is in Singapore currently being repainted (Please correct me if I'm wrong)

It would be also great to know which specific Q300s are still in the old livery.

Any info would be appreciated.

ZK-NBT · Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:02 pm

77west wrote:
I reckon a 787-10 order to cover the Asian routes (replacing / upgauging 772) and 777-9 to replace / upgauge the 77W routes is the most likely. With the T1000-10 RR has rid itself of the current 787 engine issues, and with the 777-9 there is commonality of type within the existing fleet. That also opens them up to the 777-8 for a potential NYC nonstop...

It’s an interesting decision that’s for sure, 787-10 will be great for Asia, it doesn’t have the range for the Americas however where the A350 could do both a bit like the 772, 779 would probably be fine for LAX/LHR/SFO maybe YVR going forward.

My question is really this, NZ have said the 789 is great at what it does but they need a little more for the likes of EWR/GRU maybe ORD, NZ are a premium leisure carrier, how much more can the 789 be improved for a 2023 delivery? would a config for a 789 of say 33J 47W 170Y total 250 be workable?

The 778 does seem much heavier than the A350 but how heavy is to heavy?

A future fleet of

9x 779 48J 60W 250Y LAX/LHR/SFO/YVR
8x 78K 27J 33W 260Y SIN/HKG/PVG/NRT/HND
8x 789ULH 33J 47W 170Y ORD/IAH/EWR/GRU
6x 789 code 1 18J 21W 263Y KIX/DPS/SGN/HKT/TPE/RAR-SYD/LAX
8x 789 code 2 27J 33W 215Y EZE/LIM/PER/HNL

Bit of flexibility maybe 2 789 confine would be enough? Or replace 789ULH and 779 with 15x 778? 40J 50W 230Y. Few new routes, that’s 41 frames but we are looking At 2030 for this so not much more than 1 additional frame a year for growth.

777ER · Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:20 pm

First picture is on twitter of ZK-NNA sitting outside the hanger. Possibly going to wear the All Black livery

ZK-NBT · Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:21 pm

TheLifehouse wrote:
Anyone know how the repainting is going?

My understanding is that there is still 1 772, 1 ATR and a handful of Dash 8 Q300s still in the old livery while ZK-OKF is in Singapore currently being repainted (Please correct me if I'm wrong)

It would be also great to know which specific Q300s are still in the old livery.

Any info would be appreciated.

2 772’s OKG/H. Should be done by DEC. OKF is in SIN now.
No idea which specific and how many Q300’s probably 5-6 left in the old livery.
I think 1 ATR left which won’t be repainted as it will be retired soon. I can’t remember which one OTOH.

Mr AirNZ · Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:31 pm

777ER wrote:
First picture is on twitter of ZK-NNA sitting outside the hanger. Possibly going to wear the All Black livery

The photo on twitter is NNB. NNA is already fully painted.

ZK-NBT · Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:34 pm

Mr AirNZ wrote:
777ER wrote:
First picture is on twitter of ZK-NNA sitting outside the hanger. Possibly going to wear the All Black livery

The photo on twitter is NNB. NNA is already fully painted.

Painted in what that’s the question? When is delivery expected?

DavidJ08 · Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:29 am

One argument for A359 for the 772 replacement: the 772 at present is a jack of all trades in the NZ fleet, and does anything and everything (North America, EZE, Asia, Pacific) and is a universal backup aircraft. If it is a straight-up 772 replacement then it will likely stay in the 300-320 seat range, which really means A350-900 and 787-10 (as the 777-8 is closer to the 777-300ER size while the 777-9 is even bigger), and the 787-10 lacks range so likely won't be able to North America and EZE.

If NZ is indeed looking for a direct replacement of the 772 (300-320 seat versatile workhorse) then I'd favour the A359. Of course this will have the ramification that the 77W replacement will likely be with the same manufacturer as the 772 replacement - so it's either 787-10 and 777-8 (really can't see NZ doing 777-9 which sits between 777-300ER and the 747) or A350-900 and A350-1000; and I think the deciding factor is whether NZ want to keep the fleet structure the way it is (i.e. 772 replacement being a jack of all trades again) or shake things up.

NZ6 · Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:43 am

DavidJ08 wrote:
One argument for A359 for the 772 replacement: the 772 at present is a jack of all trades in the NZ fleet, and does anything and everything (North America, EZE, Asia, Pacific) and is a universal backup aircraft. If it is a straight-up 772 replacement then it will likely stay in the 300-320 seat range, which really means A350-900 and 787-10 (as the 777-8 is closer to the 777-300ER size while the 777-9 is even bigger), and the 787-10 lacks range so likely won't be able to North America and EZE.

If NZ is indeed looking for a direct replacement of the 772 (300-320 seat versatile workhorse) then I'd favour the A359. Of course this will have the ramification that the 77W replacement will likely be with the same manufacturer as the 772 replacement - so it's either 787-10 and 777-8 (really can't see NZ doing 777-9 which sits between 777-300ER and the 747) or A350-900 and A350-1000; and I think the deciding factor is whether NZ want to keep the fleet structure the way it is (i.e. 772 replacement being a jack of all trades again) or shake things up.

Good post and you're not wrong.

Luxon was clear early on in the piece stating NZ would first need to evaluate the sort of missions it would be deployed on.

This to me says we're not just looking at replacing the 772 with a newer model which is similar in size but lighter and more fuel efficient but instead undertaking a more long-term widebody fleet review.

So it's about working out where you want to fly, how often you want to fly and what crunching some expected PAX numbers then working out what aircraft best suits your needs.

When I do that, I agree with you the new generation 777's are simply too big and the 787-10 won't offer the legs of the A350 brings to the table.

We may also see something similar to the 787's with two configurations. Something more dense for your 10-12 hour legs HKG/YVR and something more premium focused for ORD/NYC etc

tealnz · Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:49 am

The new factor is that NZ (like Qantas) wants to get into ULH in a serious way. IAH, ORD, NYC, GRU etc. Not the way Qantas do it (with 236 seats in a 789) but in a much denser leisure-oriented configuration with serious cargo capacity as well. The 789 might manage IAH and ORD for a while pax-only but NZ really need the greater payload/range of a 359 (for cargo as well as pax). The 778 offers even more payload/range but at the cost of a big jump in empty weight and presumably seat/mile cost. Might work for Qantas. Hard to see how the numbers will add up for NZ.

PA515 · Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:55 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
TheLifehouse wrote:
Anyone know how the repainting is going?

My understanding is that there is still 1 772, 1 ATR and a handful of Dash 8 Q300s still in the old livery while ZK-OKF is in Singapore currently being repainted (Please correct me if I'm wrong)

It would be also great to know which specific Q300s are still in the old livery.

Any info would be appreciated.

2 772’s OKG/H. Should be done by DEC. OKF is in SIN now.
No idea which specific and how many Q300’s probably 5-6 left in the old livery.
I think 1 ATR left which won’t be repainted as it will be retired soon. I can’t remember which one OTOH.

Hopefully ZK-OKG and ZK-OKH will be repainted and Wifi by Dec. ZK-OKB took 40 days and ZK-OKD took 33 days.

Eight Q300s in the old livery to be repainted.
ZK-NED
ZK-NEE
ZK-NEF
ZK-NEG
ZK-NEH
ZK-NEJ
ZK-NEK
ZK-NEO

Two ATR 72-500s in the old livery which won't repainted.
ZK-MCX (to be withdrawn about Oct 2019)
ZK-MCY (to be withdrawn about Nov 2018)

Also two Q300s not yet fitted with ADS-B (ZK-NEA and ZK-NES).

PA515

qf789 · Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:33 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Mr AirNZ wrote:
777ER wrote:
First picture is on twitter of ZK-NNA sitting outside the hanger. Possibly going to wear the All Black livery

The photo on twitter is NNB. NNA is already fully painted.

Painted in what that’s the question? When is delivery expected?

Here is the photo being referred to

Air New Zealand 2nd A321neo ZK-NNZ, will wear temp reg D-AVZU, NZ first A321neo is wearing All Blacks livery but not sighted yet

https://twitter.com/Tobias_Gudat/status ... 6746954754

PA515 · Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:36 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
cchan wrote:
Saw on Flightradar24 that NZ6092 is scheduled PAE-AKL on 15/09. Wondering which aircraft will this be?

789 ZK-NZN, unless NZQ is getting delivered first, both due in the next wee while.

ZK-NZQ will be delivered first.

qf789 wrote:
Air New Zealand engineering team will do a customer walk around today on ZK-NZQ, where teams inspect both interior and exterior of the aircraft

https://twitter.com/philipkirk6/status/ ... 2471134208

PA515

ZK-NBT · Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:50 am

PA515 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
cchan wrote:
Saw on Flightradar24 that NZ6092 is scheduled PAE-AKL on 15/09. Wondering which aircraft will this be?

789 ZK-NZN, unless NZQ is getting delivered first, both due in the next wee while.

ZK-NZQ will be delivered first.

qf789 wrote:
Air New Zealand engineering team will do a customer walk around today on ZK-NZQ, where teams inspect both interior and exterior of the aircraft

https://twitter.com/philipkirk6/status/ ... 2471134208

PA515

There’s some conflicting info on the net as to which will be delivered first which isn’t surprising given how often NZ take 2 aircraft let alone long haul frames in the same week.

NZ6 wrote:
DavidJ08 wrote:
One argument for A359 for the 772 replacement: the 772 at present is a jack of all trades in the NZ fleet, and does anything and everything (North America, EZE, Asia, Pacific) and is a universal backup aircraft. If it is a straight-up 772 replacement then it will likely stay in the 300-320 seat range, which really means A350-900 and 787-10 (as the 777-8 is closer to the 777-300ER size while the 777-9 is even bigger), and the 787-10 lacks range so likely won't be able to North America and EZE.

If NZ is indeed looking for a direct replacement of the 772 (300-320 seat versatile workhorse) then I'd favour the A359. Of course this will have the ramification that the 77W replacement will likely be with the same manufacturer as the 772 replacement - so it's either 787-10 and 777-8 (really can't see NZ doing 777-9 which sits between 777-300ER and the 747) or A350-900 and A350-1000; and I think the deciding factor is whether NZ want to keep the fleet structure the way it is (i.e. 772 replacement being a jack of all trades again) or shake things up.

Good post and you're not wrong.

Luxon was clear early on in the piece stating NZ would first need to evaluate the sort of missions it would be deployed on.

This to me says we're not just looking at replacing the 772 with a newer model which is similar in size but lighter and more fuel efficient but instead undertaking a more long-term widebody fleet review.

So it's about working out where you want to fly, how often you want to fly and what crunching some expected PAX numbers then working out what aircraft best suits your needs.

When I do that, I agree with you the new generation 777's are simply too big and the 787-10 won't offer the legs of the A350 brings to the table.

We may also see something similar to the 787's with two configurations. Something more dense for your 10-12 hour legs HKG/YVR and something more premium focused for ORD/NYC etc

Interesting stuff alright. Could we see a split order? I kind of think given NZ’s size if they go A350 we won’t see anymore 787’s of any type given 14 789’s will be in the fleet by late 2019.

If A359 initially, I’d say 1 config with the flexibility to fly ULH and existing routes like YVR/HKG etc while the 789 will continue with 2 configs initially atleast covering slightly lower demand, shorter, higher frequency type routes maybe PER/HNL with some Asian routes increasing In frequency with 789’s aswell.

qf789 · Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:08 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
PA515 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

789 ZK-NZN, unless NZQ is getting delivered first, both due in the next wee while.

ZK-NZQ will be delivered first.

qf789 wrote:
Air New Zealand engineering team will do a customer walk around today on ZK-NZQ, where teams inspect both interior and exterior of the aircraft

https://twitter.com/philipkirk6/status/ ... 2471134208

PA515

There’s some conflicting info on the net as to which will be delivered first which isn’t surprising given how often NZ take 2 aircraft let alone long haul frames in the same week.

NZQ has had its B1 and B2 flights plus its C1 and C2 flights where as NZN has only had its B1 and B2 flights, no customer flights as of yet so it will probably be NZQ that is delivered first

zkeoj · Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:20 pm

Plane mad South Aucklander cranes old Air NZ passenger plan into his backyard
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... d=12125152

Does any of you have a new toy in the backyard? ;-)

PA515 · Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:47 am

qf789 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
PA515 wrote:

ZK-NZQ will be delivered first.

PA515

There’s some conflicting info on the net as to which will be delivered first which isn’t surprising given how often NZ take 2 aircraft let alone long haul frames in the same week.

NZQ has had its B1 and B2 flights plus its C1 and C2 flights where as NZN has only had its B1 and B2 flights, no customer flights as of yet so it will probably be NZQ that is delivered first

It appears ZK-NZN is on delivery as NZ6092 as the Mode S Code on FR24 for ANZ6092 (C8273F) is the Mode S Code on the CAA register for ZK-NZN. Weird.

http://www.flightradar24.com/ANZ6092/1de0a571

PA515

qf789 · Sun Sep 16, 2018 4:41 am

SQ247/248 MEL-WLG-MEL was cancelled on Saturday due to one of the pilots failing an alcohol test

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/si ... t-10724922

PA515 · Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:01 pm

Mario Trunz has updated his website and the 5th Air NZ A321NEO and 1st A320NEO are now in the production list.
https://a320archive.com Click 'Aircraft' Click 'Production List'.

These are the five Air NZ A321-271NXs to be delivered in FY2019. Delivery dates based on a production rate of about 50 per month.
msn 8496 ZK-NNA (D-AZAX) --- delivery about 30 Sep 2018.
msn 8542 ZK-NNB (D-AVZU) --- delivery about 20 Oct 2018.
msn 8573 ZK-NNC (D-AVXM) --- delivery about 10 Nov 2018.
msn 8629 ZK-NND (D-AVYL) --- delivery about 10 Dec 2018.
msn 8799 ZK-NNE? (D-A???) -- delivery about 30 Mar 2019.

This is the only A320-271N listed so far of the five to be delivered in FY2019.
msn 8715 ZK-N?? (F-W??? --- delivery about 30 Jan 2019.

Mario seems to get the XFW production info earlier than TLS, so there could be another one or two A320-271Ns between msn 8715 and msn 8799.

PA515

Deepinsider · Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:34 am

PA515 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

There’s some conflicting info on the net as to which will be delivered first which isn’t surprising given how often NZ take 2 aircraft let alone long haul frames in the same week.

NZQ has had its B1 and B2 flights plus its C1 and C2 flights where as NZN has only had its B1 and B2 flights, no customer flights as of yet so it will probably be NZQ that is delivered first

It appears ZK-NZN is on delivery as NZ6092 as the Mode S Code on FR24 for ANZ6092 (C8273F) is the Mode S Code on the CAA register for ZK-NZN. Weird.

http://www.flightradar24.com/ANZ6092/1de0a571

PA515

There was some talk in the media that this flight ended with an engine shut down

qf789 · Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:50 am

NZ to make more changes to schedules/network tomorrow due to mainly 787 engine issues

cutting SGN from 23 Oct
HND will not operate for entire NW18/19 season

https://twitter.com/AvWeekScho/status/1 ... 8963948544

Zkpilot · Tue Sep 18, 2018 12:28 pm

qf789 wrote:
NZ to make more changes to schedules/network tomorrow due to mainly 787 engine issues

cutting SGN from 23 Oct
HND will not operate for entire NW18/19 season

https://twitter.com/AvWeekScho/status/1 ... 8963948544

HND being replaced by additional NRT until 787 issues resolved. HND slots are too restrictive with NZs current 787 fleet.

ZaphodHarkonnen · Tue Sep 18, 2018 12:45 pm

Well that's interesting.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-t ... tion-finds

An aeroplane crew with a "high workload" mistook a wet runway for one that was merely damp, landing dangerously close to the end of it, an investigation has found.

The aircraft's operator, Virgin Australia, had changed its policy on landings from treating damp runways as wet ones to treating them as dry ones several months before the incident.

Were it not for the crew's decision to slow down for landing sooner than normal, the plane likely would have skidded off the last 5 metres of a short, rarely-used runway at Christchurch Airport.

...

It looks like in the end the crew identified they weren't slowing down fast enough so in applying full brakes and thrust reverse managed to avoid an overrun. So yay for that working. But the fact they got to the point of needing such action is pretty terrible.

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