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ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:23 pm

SGN is seasonal anyway and ends late October normally. Suspending HND makes sense given the long layover. I’d imagine additional NRT might depart AKL as late as 0200 with the aircraft off the late SYD/MEL used?
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:36 pm

Zkpilot wrote:
qf789 wrote:
NZ to make more changes to schedules/network tomorrow due to mainly 787 engine issues

cutting SGN from 23 Oct
HND will not operate for entire NW18/19 season

https://twitter.com/AvWeekScho/status/1 ... 8963948544

HND being replaced by additional NRT until 787 issues resolved. HND slots are too restrictive with NZs current 787 fleet.


Wasn't SGN seasonal?
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:15 am

There was also some mention earlier of retiming EZE, let’s see if this is still required with these latest changes freeing up a frame from HND.
 
xiaotung
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:22 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
SGN is seasonal anyway and ends late October normally. Suspending HND makes sense given the long layover. I’d imagine additional NRT might depart AKL as late as 0200 with the aircraft off the late SYD/MEL used?


NZ has cited inconsistent demand as part of the reason for ending SGN. I guess we will not see it return in the foreseeable future. It probably would also discourage NZ management to reconsider MNL. DPS can't be very profitable given EK's year round services. I wonder what could NZ do once they got their full 787 fleet back in service.
 
nz2
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:24 am

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
Well that's interesting.



It looks like in the end the crew identified they weren't slowing down fast enough so in applying full brakes and thrust reverse managed to avoid an overrun. So yay for that working. But the fact they got to the point of needing such action is pretty terrible.


I think it reads that they slowed their airspeed prior to landing which saved the day
 
DavidJ08
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:16 am

OKJ has been registered - and it is ex 9V-SVG. https://www.caa.govt.nz/script/aircraft ... t_ID=10125
 
DavidJ08
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:31 am

nz2 wrote:
ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
Well that's interesting.



It looks like in the end the crew identified they weren't slowing down fast enough so in applying full brakes and thrust reverse managed to avoid an overrun. So yay for that working. But the fact they got to the point of needing such action is pretty terrible.


I think it reads that they slowed their airspeed prior to landing which saved the day

I'm reading that they landed, identified that they weren't decelerating as expected, and applied max manual brakes and reversers. Will quote the original passage below:

The plane did not slow down as expected and "the crew believed the aircraft appeared to slide or skid," the report says.

The crew overrode the automatic braking system, applied hard manual brakes, and used a reverse thrust. The aircraft stopped just 5m from the end of the runway.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:43 am

xiaotung wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
SGN is seasonal anyway and ends late October normally. Suspending HND makes sense given the long layover. I’d imagine additional NRT might depart AKL as late as 0200 with the aircraft off the late SYD/MEL used?


NZ has cited inconsistent demand as part of the reason for ending SGN. I guess we will not see it return in the foreseeable future. It probably would also discourage NZ management to reconsider MNL. DPS can't be very profitable given EK's year round services. I wonder what could NZ do once they got their full 787 fleet back in service.


SGN is an average route, expected to be as such but offered long-term potential with short-term small returns.

DPS is doing really well, you can't state DPS "can't be very profitable given EK's year-round service" NZ operate at peak, it's very high 90% based on return outbound travel with DPS being the end destination.

At the end of the day, this 787 issue will likely go on well into next year. NZ's is looking at managing cost at using its fleet in the most sensible way possible. So what I label personally "developing routes" run a very high risk of being suspended or reduced. You would also consolidate routes where you can.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 7:47 am

xiaotung wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
SGN is seasonal anyway and ends late October normally. Suspending HND makes sense given the long layover. I’d imagine additional NRT might depart AKL as late as 0200 with the aircraft off the late SYD/MEL used?


NZ has cited inconsistent demand as part of the reason for ending SGN. I guess we will not see it return in the foreseeable future. It probably would also discourage NZ management to reconsider MNL. DPS can't be very profitable given EK's year round services. I wonder what could NZ do once they got their full 787 fleet back in service.


By that logic I’m guessing HNL is a disaster given HA fly it and LAX must lose money seasonally when AA are flying it.

NZ6 wrote:
xiaotung wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
SGN is seasonal anyway and ends late October normally. Suspending HND makes sense given the long layover. I’d imagine additional NRT might depart AKL as late as 0200 with the aircraft off the late SYD/MEL used?


NZ has cited inconsistent demand as part of the reason for ending SGN. I guess we will not see it return in the foreseeable future. It probably would also discourage NZ management to reconsider MNL. DPS can't be very profitable given EK's year round services. I wonder what could NZ do once they got their full 787 fleet back in service.


SGN is an average route, expected to be as such but offered long-term potential with short-term small returns.

DPS is doing really well, you can't state DPS "can't be very profitable given EK's year-round service" NZ operate at peak, it's very high 90% based on return outbound travel with DPS being the end destination.

At the end of the day, this 787 issue will likely go on well into next year. NZ's is looking at managing cost at using its fleet in the most sensible way possible. So what I label personally "developing routes" run a very high risk of being suspended or reduced. You would also consolidate routes where you can.


Do you think SGN might come back one day? I’m picking as you say given the 787 issues that we quite likely won’t see any additional seasonal routes or possibly even permanent routes next year. As you say a year of consolidation wouldn’t be surprising.
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:19 am

DavidJ08 wrote:
nz2 wrote:
ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
Well that's interesting.



It looks like in the end the crew identified they weren't slowing down fast enough so in applying full brakes and thrust reverse managed to avoid an overrun. So yay for that working. But the fact they got to the point of needing such action is pretty terrible.


I think it reads that they slowed their airspeed prior to landing which saved the day

I'm reading that they landed, identified that they weren't decelerating as expected, and applied max manual brakes and reversers. Will quote the original passage below:

The plane did not slow down as expected and "the crew believed the aircraft appeared to slide or skid," the report says.

The crew overrode the automatic braking system, applied hard manual brakes, and used a reverse thrust. The aircraft stopped just 5m from the end of the runway.


Yup, the opening of the article was poorly worded but cleared up later.

I imagine if the crew had noticed before wheels down they would have done a go around and diverted.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:27 am

Could this lay the groundwork for VN to launch AKL, perhaps codesharing with NZ?

NZ6 wrote:
SGN is an average route, expected to be as such but offered long-term potential with short-term small returns.

I think ICN would offer lucrative short-term returns, and moderate long-term growth.

Cheers,

C.
 
DavidJ08
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:56 am

planemanofnz wrote:
I think ICN would offer lucrative short-term returns, and moderate long-term growth.

I don't know about ICN... Look at KE's ICN-AKL flight for example, this time last year it was a 77W which is up-gauged over our summer to a 748, and now it's a 772 all winter with the up-gauge being 77W. If the sole incumbent operator of the route is down-gauging, surely that's not a sign of a route bursting at the seams waiting for a new operator?
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:02 am

I'd like to see HND go daily alongside NRT :)
I'd like to see IAH go daily year-round

Both of these seem to have more potential, frankly.

Let's see how TPE does.
Plane mad!
 
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qf789
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:47 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
Could this lay the groundwork for VN to launch AKL, perhaps codesharing with NZ?

NZ6 wrote:
SGN is an average route, expected to be as such but offered long-term potential with short-term small returns.

I think ICN would offer lucrative short-term returns, and moderate long-term growth.

Cheers,

C.


Personally I think NZ should in the short term just focus on the routes they currently service and put route expansion on hold for the time being until the 787 engine issues are resolved. Obviously this is not the ideal scenario nor is it NZ's own making however I think is what needs to be done in the short time.

Now for those close to NZ I have noticed the flight to PER next Wednesday the 26th operated by the 77W. Does anyone know what rego this is likely to be operated by?
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PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:31 pm

qf789 wrote:
Now for those close to NZ I have noticed the flight to PER next Wednesday the 26th operated by the 77W. Does anyone know what rego this is likely to be operated by?


Don't know but expect it's related to the All Blacks vs South Africa in Pretoria on Sat 06 Oct. Doubt it will be ZK-OKT as they will want as many seats as poss.

ZK-OKR is on FR24 doing NZ30 AKL-EZE Fri 21 Sep, NZ31 EZE-AKL Sat 22 Sep. All Blacks vs Argentina on Sat 29 Sep, so the All Black team will be aboard. Last year ZK-OKQ did this flight.

PA515
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:17 pm

The Air NZ website 'Book' function has NZ87 / NZ80 switching from a 77E to the 789 v2 eff. 26 Nov. HKG-AKL will be 30 mins earlier. AKL-HKG 2345/0600, HKG-AKL 1725/0930. This is the same arrival time as the SIN-AKL 789 v2. The four v2 789s will be AKL-SIN-AKL Daily, AKL-HKG / HKG-AKL Daily and AKL-ORD We Fr Su.

Three of the nine v1 789s will not be used. Assume these will be ZK-NZI, ZK-NZJ (already out of action) and ZK-NZK. Some 77E and 77W maintenance may be occurring in the peak season.

The suspended three weekly AKL-HND has been replaced with three additional AKL-NRT Mo & Sa AKL-NRT 1300/1955, NRT-AKL 2125/1200 and Th AKL-NRT 1230/1925, NRT-AKL 2055/1130.

PA515
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 7:02 pm

PA515 wrote:
The Air NZ website 'Book' function has NZ87 / NZ80 switching from a 77E to the 789 v2 eff. 26 Nov. HKG-AKL will be 30 mins earlier. AKL-HKG 2345/0600, HKG-AKL 1725/0930. This is the same arrival time as the SIN-AKL 789 v2. The four v2 789s will be AKL-SIN-AKL Daily, AKL-HKG / HKG-AKL Daily and AKL-ORD We Fr Su.

Three of the nine v1 789s will not be used. Assume these will be ZK-NZI, ZK-NZJ (already out of action) and ZK-NZK. Some 77E and 77W maintenance may be occurring in the peak season.

The suspended three weekly AKL-HND has been replaced with three additional AKL-NRT Mo & Sa AKL-NRT 1300/1955, NRT-AKL 2125/1200 and Th AKL-NRT 1230/1925, NRT-AKL 2055/1130.

PA515


That makes sense re the 789’s so they can swap the V2 ones around with HKG/SIN arriving together.

I don’t think they will do any 777 mx in the peak Dec-Feb period. It does make the 772 fleet a bit light, long haul is now

AKL-YVR x7
AKL-EZE x5
AKL-IAH x4/5
AKL-SFO x1

Needs just over 5 frames, unless some or all of NRT is changing to 772 maybe?
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:00 pm

I missed HNL which I think is NZ’s own 772 x5. Still only uses 6 772’s so plenty of slack.

789’s could be V1
NRT x10
PVG x 7
PER x7 ex AKL might be x6
KIX x3
TPE x3/4

I think they are allowing for up to 4 to be grounded at once.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:59 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:

NZ6 wrote:
SGN is an average route, expected to be as such but offered long-term potential with short-term small returns.

DPS is doing really well, you can't state DPS "can't be very profitable given EK's year-round service" NZ operate at peak, it's very high 90% based on return outbound travel with DPS being the end destination.

At the end of the day, this 787 issue will likely go on well into next year. NZ's is looking at managing cost at using its fleet in the most sensible way possible. So what I label personally "developing routes" run a very high risk of being suspended or reduced. You would also consolidate routes where you can.


Do you think SGN might come back one day? I’m picking as you say given the 787 issues that we quite likely won’t see any additional seasonal routes or possibly even permanent routes next year. As you say a year of consolidation wouldn’t be surprising.


I would hope so, it all depends on where the airline is at when this 787 issue is truly behind us.

However, it's not been as successful as DPS, DPS steady attacks loads throughout the season whereas SGN is much quieter outside the peak, peak periods.
Last edited by NZ6 on Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:09 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
Could this lay the groundwork for VN to launch AKL, perhaps codesharing with NZ?

NZ6 wrote:
SGN is an average route, expected to be as such but offered long-term potential with short-term small returns.

I think ICN would offer lucrative short-term returns, and moderate long-term growth.

Cheers,

C.


Re a VN alliance, it's an option. Right now NZ needs the 787 on routes which are more profitable for the airline. Sadly SGN is basically at the bottom of the list so this should not a surprise. Without the 767 being in the fleet as it was I don't think we would have ever seen this route in the first place.

So you're options are:
1) Alliance with VN and VN operate - Does this leave the door open for NZ to return?
2) Alliance with both operating - NZ doesn't have the equipment at the moment
3) Alliance where NZ picks up some of the work in the future - Does NZ want to return

My point being, it's almost a nice time to pull out and see what the market does over the next 12-24 months.

Re ICN, like I've said before KE have a massive slice of the market share and moving Koreans off that airline is very hard. NZ is best to keep building Korea over Japan while nurturing Japan back to full health.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:10 pm

NZ321 wrote:
I'd like to see HND go daily alongside NRT :)
I'd like to see IAH go daily year-round

Both of these seem to have more potential, frankly.

Let's see how TPE does.


IAH will go daily and it won't be far away.
NRT will one day be dropped for HND
 
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LamboAston
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:16 pm

Deepinsider wrote:
PA515 wrote:
qf789 wrote:

NZQ has had its B1 and B2 flights plus its C1 and C2 flights where as NZN has only had its B1 and B2 flights, no customer flights as of yet so it will probably be NZQ that is delivered first


It appears ZK-NZN is on delivery as NZ6092 as the Mode S Code on FR24 for ANZ6092 (C8273F) is the Mode S Code on the CAA register for ZK-NZN. Weird.

http://www.flightradar24.com/ANZ6092/1de0a571

PA515

There was some talk in the media that this flight ended with an engine shut down

Someone on Facebook heard them call one engine shut down on VHF at 18:52, landing 19:00
AS350, B733/4/7/8, B744/8, B762/3, B77E/L/W, B789, A319, A320, A321, A332, A346, A380, AT73/5/6, Q300, Q400, CR2/7, E190, S340, B1900C/D, E110 (E for epic)
NZ, EK, QF, SQ, UA, US, CO, FZ, FR, U2, BA, VA, VS, MH, EI, EY, LH, EN, NM, TG, GZ
 
jddc7
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:47 am

our flight from Auckland to Perth on 11 Feb 2019 has been changed to 777-200ER from the 787. Does anyone know if this is an Air NZ aircraft or the Boeing Lease one?

Thanks
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:30 am

jddc7 wrote:
our flight from Auckland to Perth on 11 Feb 2019 has been changed to 777-200ER from the 787. Does anyone know if this is an Air NZ aircraft or the Boeing Lease one?

Thanks

It will be the leased one. See: https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/travel- ... 2SJ6nCcgLl

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:40 am

NZ6 wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
I'd like to see HND go daily alongside NRT :)
I'd like to see IAH go daily year-round

Both of these seem to have more potential, frankly.

Let's see how TPE does.


IAH will go daily and it won't be far away.
NRT will one day be dropped for HND


IAH was daily for a fair chunk of this year, some weeks were 6 weekly and there was a couple of cancellations IIRC due to the 787 issues, they used a 789 most of this year although 777’s were used for a period again due 787 issues. That’s compared to 5 weekly 772’s in NS17. I’m kind of guessing NS19 we might see a 5-6 weekly 772 until the 787 is fully operational again at which point it will go daily 789 maybe NS20.

Agree Eventually HND will go daily replacing NRT, hard to say when, I wonder when the next round of slots are open for NZ carriers or as part of the NZ Japan bilateral? Would they keep a seasonal NRT or maybe use a 77W to HND or something in peak periods?
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:46 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
I'd like to see HND go daily alongside NRT :)
I'd like to see IAH go daily year-round

Both of these seem to have more potential, frankly.

Let's see how TPE does.


IAH will go daily and it won't be far away.
NRT will one day be dropped for HND


IAH was daily for a fair chunk of this year, some weeks were 6 weekly and there was a couple of cancellations IIRC due to the 787 issues, they used a 789 most of this year although 777’s were used for a period again due 787 issues. That’s compared to 5 weekly 772’s in NS17. I’m kind of guessing NS19 we might see a 5-6 weekly 772 until the 787 is fully operational again at which point it will go daily 789 maybe NS20.

Agree Eventually HND will go daily replacing NRT, hard to say when, I wonder when the next round of slots are open for NZ carriers or as part of the NZ Japan bilateral? Would they keep a seasonal NRT or maybe use a 77W to HND or something in peak periods?


Sorry I should have been more clear, I mean year round.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:52 am

NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

IAH will go daily and it won't be far away.
NRT will one day be dropped for HND


IAH was daily for a fair chunk of this year, some weeks were 6 weekly and there was a couple of cancellations IIRC due to the 787 issues, they used a 789 most of this year although 777’s were used for a period again due 787 issues. That’s compared to 5 weekly 772’s in NS17. I’m kind of guessing NS19 we might see a 5-6 weekly 772 until the 787 is fully operational again at which point it will go daily 789 maybe NS20.

Agree Eventually HND will go daily replacing NRT, hard to say when, I wonder when the next round of slots are open for NZ carriers or as part of the NZ Japan bilateral? Would they keep a seasonal NRT or maybe use a 77W to HND or something in peak periods?


Sorry I should have been more clear, I mean year round.


That’s all good I knew what you meant, just me speculating probably wrongly on what might happen over the NS 2019.
 
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qf789
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:11 pm

Air New Zealand 789 ZK-NZQ prior to being moved from the flightline to the delivery center

Image

https://twitter.com/mattcawby/status/10 ... 4440402944
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Jamso
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:16 pm

Image

First image of ZK-NNA surfaced on Twitter this morning, https://twitter.com/Tobias_Gudat/status/1042824124442267649, also new photos of NNB at https://twitter.com/Tobias_Gudat/status/1042824438813794305
 
DavidJ08
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Thu Sep 20, 2018 11:09 pm

And now NZQ is past Hawaii on its way to Auckland! https://www.flightradar24.com/ANZ6094/1def585d
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:11 am

KE now have an extra flight loaded on Saturdays ex AKL from 22 Dec through 23 Feb with 77W

KE9129 1205
KE9130 1340

Daily KE129/130 still showing 77W compared to previous years 748.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:03 am

DavidJ08 wrote:
I don't know about ICN... Look at KE's ICN-AKL flight for example, this time last year it was a 77W which is up-gauged over our summer to a 748, and now it's a 772 all winter with the up-gauge being 77W. If the sole incumbent operator of the route is down-gauging, surely that's not a sign of a route bursting at the seams waiting for a new operator?

NZ6 wrote:
Re ICN, like I've said before KE have a massive slice of the market share and moving Koreans off that airline is very hard.

DavidJ08, IMO that's a KE-specific issue, in which KE's reputation has been trashed in Korea of late (there were full-blown protests against KE in Seoul in May). The overall Korea - New Zealand market is booming, growing by over 10% for the past 3-4 years, off of an already high base - it's just that the growth has come through the one-stop options (e.g. via China), and not through the non-stop KE option.

ZK-NBT wrote:
KE now have an extra flight loaded on Saturdays ex AKL from 22 Dec through 23 Feb with 77W ...

IIRC this is a charter flight which happened last year too - it's good to see that the season for it has been extended on last year.

Cheers,

C.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:29 am

planemanofnz wrote:
DavidJ08 wrote:
I don't know about ICN... Look at KE's ICN-AKL flight for example, this time last year it was a 77W which is up-gauged over our summer to a 748, and now it's a 772 all winter with the up-gauge being 77W. If the sole incumbent operator of the route is down-gauging, surely that's not a sign of a route bursting at the seams waiting for a new operator?

NZ6 wrote:
Re ICN, like I've said before KE have a massive slice of the market share and moving Koreans off that airline is very hard. NZ is best to keep building Korea over Japan while nurturing Japan back to full health.

DavidJ08, IMO that's a KE-specific issue, in which KE's reputation has been trashed in Korea of late (there were full-blown protests against KE in Seoul in May). The overall Korea - New Zealand market is booming, growing by over 10% for the past 3-4 years, off of an already high base - it's just that the growth has come through the one-stop options (e.g. via China), and not through the non-stop KE option.

ZK-NBT wrote:
KE now have an extra flight loaded on Saturdays ex AKL from 22 Dec through 23 Feb with 77W ...

IIRC this is a charter flight which happened last year too - it's good to see that the season for it has been extended on last year.

Cheers,

C.


I don’t no but I wouldn’t personally imagine those protests against KE would harm them to much on a route like AKL where there is no other non stop option atleast.

Personally I wonder weathe AKL isn’t profitable so the lower operating costs of the 77W vs 748 are being taken advantage of here but what would I no? KE don’t have any 2 class long haul frames which imo would make sense on a lot of their routes. The 77W doesn’t have a huge amount of Y seats so in that regard the 748 or 789 imo would make sense for AKL or 772 which has less J.

I thought a lot of Korean tourists combined Australia and NZ together so would do ICN-SYD-AKL-ICN for example.

Those extra KE flights I think are charters for a travel company? KE even when they ran 10 weekly or more DEC-FEB scheduled the extra flights as 4 digit so charters I think, maybe a bilateral thing?
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:45 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
I don’t no but I wouldn’t personally imagine those protests against KE would harm them to much on a route like AKL where there is no other non stop option atleast.

AKL is not a time-sensitive market - IIRC, most traffic is holiday-based, so the one-stop options adequately compete against KE. On the impact of the protests on KE, It's not just the May protest - there's been a whole bunch of other incidents like the water rage and Jin Air (a KE subsidiary) licence scandals. These have resulted in KE's stock price plummeting, and many Koreans moving their business away from KE. KE is most definitely taking a hit.

ZK-NBT wrote:
Personally I wonder weathe AKL isn’t profitable ...

If it wasn't profitable, you'd first see them drop frequencies down to 5x, 4x, and/or 3x weekly, and/or use a smaller plane and/or drop out of the market completely, like they did with MEL. They have options. I'd also say - given how the market is growing so much, and how comparatively fewer one-stop options there are to AKL compared to elsewhere (e.g. no Japanese airlines fly to AKL), you'd imagine that theý'd be making some money at AKL.

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1121
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:40 am

planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
I don’t no but I wouldn’t personally imagine those protests against KE would harm them to much on a route like AKL where there is no other non stop option atleast.

AKL is not a time-sensitive market - IIRC, most traffic is holiday-based, so the one-stop options adequately compete against KE. On the impact of the protests on KE, It's not just the May protest - there's been a whole bunch of other incidents like the water rage and Jin Air (a KE subsidiary) licence scandals. These have resulted in KE's stock price plummeting, and many Koreans moving their business away from KE. KE is most definitely taking a hit.

ZK-NBT wrote:
Personally I wonder weathe AKL isn’t profitable ...

If it wasn't profitable, you'd first see them drop frequencies down to 5x, 4x, and/or 3x weekly, and/or use a smaller plane and/or drop out of the market completely, like they did with MEL. They have options. I'd also say - given how the market is growing so much, and how comparatively fewer one-stop options there are to AKL compared to elsewhere (e.g. no Japanese airlines fly to AKL), you'd imagine that theý'd be making some money at AKL.

Cheers,

C.


There's a lot of assumptions being made.

We're assuming profitability based on frequency and equipment used, which can be a guided assumption but certainly doesn't directly equate to dollars in the bank.

Two points I'll raise re ICN.
1. Why did OZ pull out?
2. Why does QF not operate SYD-ICN?
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6943
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:07 am

NZ6 wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
I don’t no but I wouldn’t personally imagine those protests against KE would harm them to much on a route like AKL where there is no other non stop option atleast.

AKL is not a time-sensitive market - IIRC, most traffic is holiday-based, so the one-stop options adequately compete against KE. On the impact of the protests on KE, It's not just the May protest - there's been a whole bunch of other incidents like the water rage and Jin Air (a KE subsidiary) licence scandals. These have resulted in KE's stock price plummeting, and many Koreans moving their business away from KE. KE is most definitely taking a hit.

ZK-NBT wrote:
Personally I wonder weathe AKL isn’t profitable ...

If it wasn't profitable, you'd first see them drop frequencies down to 5x, 4x, and/or 3x weekly, and/or use a smaller plane and/or drop out of the market completely, like they did with MEL. They have options. I'd also say - given how the market is growing so much, and how comparatively fewer one-stop options there are to AKL compared to elsewhere (e.g. no Japanese airlines fly to AKL), you'd imagine that theý'd be making some money at AKL.

Cheers,

C.


There's a lot of assumptions being made.

We're assuming profitability based on frequency and equipment used, which can be a guided assumption but certainly doesn't directly equate to dollars in the bank.

Two points I'll raise re ICN.
1. Why did OZ pull out?
2. Why does QF not operate SYD-ICN?


1. I think they started to late, KE were double daily 744’a in peak the year before OZ came back in 2003, KE then went to CHC 3 weekly 744’s and AKL 10 weekly 744’s for DEC-FEB 2003/04 plus OZ 4 weekly 772 to AKL, 04/05 AKL was 10 weekly again iirc and CHC was a mix 772/744 plus OZ 4 weekly 772 again. OZ pulled out March 2005. 05/06 KE ran just a daily 744 and CHC was a 3 weekly 772, CHC hasn’t operated since and KE only ran 772’s for 2-3 years there for a while. Bit of history hopefully correct.

I’d say OZ pulled AKL because of low yields, loads were reportedly good in NW periods, 2004 NS they dropped to 3 weekly for some of it. Lots of Y capacity but possibly not the right aircraft configuration for AKL.

I still kind of think that now, loads are reasonable to AKL in NW, but often inbound is full and outbound is 50%, I have heard that weather it’s right I don’t no.


2. QF do codeshare with OZ SYD-ICN, both KE and OZ run daily A380’s ICN-SYD in NW. Imo for the Y capacity which KE have more Y on the 748 and go from 28J on the A333 in NS to 94J on the A380 in NW, doesn’t make sense to me as to how they make money.

QF don’t run SYD-ICN because like AKL it’s dominated by inbound tourism from Korea which they can’t compete with the home carriers KE/OZ.

Planemanofnz, I’m unsure tbh why KE haven’t run a daily A332 to AKL in NS rather than a 4-5 weekly 772, I think they choose the busiest days like weekends obviously, again not enough high yield traffic to warrant a daily service.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1121
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:45 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
AKL is not a time-sensitive market - IIRC, most traffic is holiday-based, so the one-stop options adequately compete against KE. On the impact of the protests on KE, It's not just the May protest - there's been a whole bunch of other incidents like the water rage and Jin Air (a KE subsidiary) licence scandals. These have resulted in KE's stock price plummeting, and many Koreans moving their business away from KE. KE is most definitely taking a hit.


If it wasn't profitable, you'd first see them drop frequencies down to 5x, 4x, and/or 3x weekly, and/or use a smaller plane and/or drop out of the market completely, like they did with MEL. They have options. I'd also say - given how the market is growing so much, and how comparatively fewer one-stop options there are to AKL compared to elsewhere (e.g. no Japanese airlines fly to AKL), you'd imagine that theý'd be making some money at AKL.

Cheers,

C.


There's a lot of assumptions being made.

We're assuming profitability based on frequency and equipment used, which can be a guided assumption but certainly doesn't directly equate to dollars in the bank.

Two points I'll raise re ICN.
1. Why did OZ pull out?
2. Why does QF not operate SYD-ICN?


1. I think they started to late, KE were double daily 744’a in peak the year before OZ came back in 2003, KE then went to CHC 3 weekly 744’s and AKL 10 weekly 744’s for DEC-FEB 2003/04 plus OZ 4 weekly 772 to AKL, 04/05 AKL was 10 weekly again iirc and CHC was a mix 772/744 plus OZ 4 weekly 772 again. OZ pulled out March 2005. 05/06 KE ran just a daily 744 and CHC was a 3 weekly 772, CHC hasn’t operated since and KE only ran 772’s for 2-3 years there for a while. Bit of history hopefully correct.

I’d say OZ pulled AKL because of low yields, loads were reportedly good in NW periods, 2004 NS they dropped to 3 weekly for some of it. Lots of Y capacity but possibly not the right aircraft configuration for AKL.

I still kind of think that now, loads are reasonable to AKL in NW, but often inbound is full and outbound is 50%, I have heard that weather it’s right I don’t no.


2. QF do codeshare with OZ SYD-ICN, both KE and OZ run daily A380’s ICN-SYD in NW. Imo for the Y capacity which KE have more Y on the 748 and go from 28J on the A333 in NS to 94J on the A380 in NW, doesn’t make sense to me as to how they make money.

QF don’t run SYD-ICN because like AKL it’s dominated by inbound tourism from Korea which they can’t compete with the home carriers KE/OZ.

Planemanofnz, I’m unsure tbh why KE haven’t run a daily A332 to AKL in NS rather than a 4-5 weekly 772, I think they choose the busiest days like weekends obviously, again not enough high yield traffic to warrant a daily service.


So further to my point, we don't know why OZ pulled out, well publicly anyway. Most foreign carriers rely on inbound so that fact OZ struggled would suggest how hard that market can be.

Also, if QF haven't seen the need to operate their own metal that's potentially also saying alot about the wider market.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6943
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:53 am

NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

There's a lot of assumptions being made.

We're assuming profitability based on frequency and equipment used, which can be a guided assumption but certainly doesn't directly equate to dollars in the bank.

Two points I'll raise re ICN.
1. Why did OZ pull out?
2. Why does QF not operate SYD-ICN?


1. I think they started to late, KE were double daily 744’a in peak the year before OZ came back in 2003, KE then went to CHC 3 weekly 744’s and AKL 10 weekly 744’s for DEC-FEB 2003/04 plus OZ 4 weekly 772 to AKL, 04/05 AKL was 10 weekly again iirc and CHC was a mix 772/744 plus OZ 4 weekly 772 again. OZ pulled out March 2005. 05/06 KE ran just a daily 744 and CHC was a 3 weekly 772, CHC hasn’t operated since and KE only ran 772’s for 2-3 years there for a while. Bit of history hopefully correct.

I’d say OZ pulled AKL because of low yields, loads were reportedly good in NW periods, 2004 NS they dropped to 3 weekly for some of it. Lots of Y capacity but possibly not the right aircraft configuration for AKL.

I still kind of think that now, loads are reasonable to AKL in NW, but often inbound is full and outbound is 50%, I have heard that weather it’s right I don’t no.


2. QF do codeshare with OZ SYD-ICN, both KE and OZ run daily A380’s ICN-SYD in NW. Imo for the Y capacity which KE have more Y on the 748 and go from 28J on the A333 in NS to 94J on the A380 in NW, doesn’t make sense to me as to how they make money.

QF don’t run SYD-ICN because like AKL it’s dominated by inbound tourism from Korea which they can’t compete with the home carriers KE/OZ.

Planemanofnz, I’m unsure tbh why KE haven’t run a daily A332 to AKL in NS rather than a 4-5 weekly 772, I think they choose the busiest days like weekends obviously, again not enough high yield traffic to warrant a daily service.


So further to my point, we don't know why OZ pulled out, well publicly anyway. Most foreign carriers rely on inbound so that fact OZ struggled would suggest how hard that market can be.

Also, if QF haven't seen the need to operate their own metal that's potentially also saying alot about the wider market.


Yes it seems many foreign carriers do rely on inbound, there isn’t many routes into AKL where there is more than 1 foreign carrier, HKG probably the only long haul? The Chinese carriers all fly from different ports, that market is huge. NZ can compete by going after the higher end of the market in PVG which is the biggest with a daily flight.

Re QF I agree, that’s partly why I can’t see NZ going to ICN, I’d see OZ returning as Ive said before. I’m picking the reasonable amount of outbound to ICN connects mainly over HKG/SIN/NRT?
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6943
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:59 am

PA515 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Now for those close to NZ I have noticed the flight to PER next Wednesday the 26th operated by the 77W. Does anyone know what rego this is likely to be operated by?


Don't know but expect it's related to the All Blacks vs South Africa in Pretoria on Sat 06 Oct. Doubt it will be ZK-OKT as they will want as many seats as poss.

ZK-OKR is on FR24 doing NZ30 AKL-EZE Fri 21 Sep, NZ31 EZE-AKL Sat 22 Sep. All Blacks vs Argentina on Sat 29 Sep, so the All Black team will be aboard. Last year ZK-OKQ did this flight.

PA515



ZK-OKQ doing NZ30/31 AKL-EZE.

No idea which 77W will do AKL-PER, OKT has turned up on a few routes mainly short haul, it went to ADL this week to, SYD/NAN/YVR seem to be the main ones thus far, PER wouldn’t surprise me but who knows.
 
bevan7
Posts: 87
Joined: Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:44 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:34 am

Jamso wrote:
Image

First image of ZK-NNA surfaced on Twitter this morning, https://twitter.com/Tobias_Gudat/status/1042824124442267649, also new photos of NNB at https://twitter.com/Tobias_Gudat/status/1042824438813794305


What are these buildings the planes are in? What do they do in them?
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
Posts: 932
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:20 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:01 am

bevan7 wrote:
Jamso wrote:
Image

First image of ZK-NNA surfaced on Twitter this morning, https://twitter.com/Tobias_Gudat/status/1042824124442267649, also new photos of NNB at https://twitter.com/Tobias_Gudat/status/1042824438813794305


What are these buildings the planes are in? What do they do in them?


From memory they're basically just shelters so that work can be done on the wings and engines in all weather. No need to build full sized hangers for such work but it's routine enough it's worth building some sort of shelter.
 
bevan7
Posts: 87
Joined: Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:44 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:34 am

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
bevan7 wrote:
Jamso wrote:
Image

First image of ZK-NNA surfaced on Twitter this morning, https://twitter.com/Tobias_Gudat/status/1042824124442267649, also new photos of NNB at https://twitter.com/Tobias_Gudat/status/1042824438813794305


What are these buildings the planes are in? What do they do in them?


From memory they're basically just shelters so that work can be done on the wings and engines in all weather. No need to build full sized hangers for such work but it's routine enough it's worth building some sort of shelter.


Ah thanks. Anybody have any pictures of these buildings. From this angle they look like the wings would hit the supporting columns. How do they get the plane in?
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
Posts: 932
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:20 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:00 am

bevan7 wrote:
ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
bevan7 wrote:

What are these buildings the planes are in? What do they do in them?


From memory they're basically just shelters so that work can be done on the wings and engines in all weather. No need to build full sized hangers for such work but it's routine enough it's worth building some sort of shelter.


Ah thanks. Anybody have any pictures of these buildings. From this angle they look like the wings would hit the supporting columns. How do they get the plane in?


They're cantilevered so the supports are only on the front side with relation to the aircraft.

Amusingly the google maps 3D view of them isn't too bad. https://www.google.co.nz/maps/@53.53834 ... a=!3m1!1e3
 
bevan7
Posts: 87
Joined: Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:44 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:06 am

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
bevan7 wrote:
ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:

From memory they're basically just shelters so that work can be done on the wings and engines in all weather. No need to build full sized hangers for such work but it's routine enough it's worth building some sort of shelter.


Ah thanks. Anybody have any pictures of these buildings. From this angle they look like the wings would hit the supporting columns. How do they get the plane in?


They're cantilevered so the supports are only on the front side with relation to the aircraft.

Amusingly the google maps 3D view of them isn't too bad. https://www.google.co.nz/maps/@53.53834 ... a=!3m1!1e3


Ah thanks. That makes sense
 
DavidJ08
Posts: 160
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2007 9:18 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:41 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
If it wasn't profitable, you'd first see them drop frequencies down to 5x, 4x, and/or 3x weekly, and/or use a smaller plane and/or drop out of the market completely, like they did with MEL.

But we're seeing that though? The 748 dropped to 77W in the coming NW, and 77W dropped to 772 this NS. And currently only flying 4x weekly with the 772.

ZK-NBT wrote:
QF don’t run SYD-ICN because like AKL it’s dominated by inbound tourism from Korea which they can’t compete with the home carriers KE/OZ.

There it is - I personally think this is a big reason NZ wouldn't consider launching AKL-ICN. For the tourism market, even a heavily-trashed KE is still a home-grown Korean airline with connections and business relationships (e.g. with tour companies) at home, not to mention the convenience factor for the punters to be flying their country's airline, who speak the same language, share the same culture etc.

In any case, I don't think NZ will really be in a position to consider another destination until the 787 engine issues are all sorted.
 
PA515
Posts: 1532
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:48 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
PA515 wrote:
The Air NZ website 'Book' function has NZ87 / NZ80 switching from a 77E to the 789 v2 eff. 26 Nov. HKG-AKL will be 30 mins earlier. AKL-HKG 2345/0600, HKG-AKL 1725/0930. This is the same arrival time as the SIN-AKL 789 v2. The four v2 789s will be AKL-SIN-AKL Daily, AKL-HKG / HKG-AKL Daily and AKL-ORD We Fr Su.

Three of the nine v1 789s will not be used. Assume these will be ZK-NZI, ZK-NZJ (already out of action) and ZK-NZK. Some 77E and 77W maintenance may be occurring in the peak season.

The suspended three weekly AKL-HND has been replaced with three additional AKL-NRT Mo & Sa AKL-NRT 1300/1955, NRT-AKL 2125/1200 and Th AKL-NRT 1230/1925, NRT-AKL 2055/1130.

PA515


That makes sense re the 789’s so they can swap the V2 ones around with HKG/SIN arriving together.

I don’t think they will do any 777 mx in the peak Dec-Feb period. It does make the 772 fleet a bit light, long haul is now

AKL-YVR x7
AKL-EZE x5
AKL-IAH x4/5
AKL-SFO x1

Needs just over 5 frames, unless some or all of NRT is changing to 772 maybe?


There will only be nine of the ten 77Es in service, so I am assuming maintenance. My schedule sample is for the week 17-23 Dec 2018. I usually do it for a week earlier but the WLG-BNE and ZQN-BNE 320 flights commence from 17 Dec 2018.

ZK-NBT wrote:
I missed HNL which I think is NZ’s own 772 x5. Still only uses 6 772’s so plenty of slack.

789’s could be V1
NRT x10
PVG x 7
PER x7 ex AKL might be x6
KIX x3
TPE x3/4

I think they are allowing for up to 4 to be grounded at once.


Yes, it's only five 789 V1 in the schedule with the Mo-Fr plus Su 789 AKL-MEL 1525/1730, MEL-AKL 1845/0020 now changed to a 320. I expect that will be an A321NEO. There are some other changes as well like the Th & Sa NZ175 / NZ176 now a 77E. The schedule still has some incorrect aircraft types showing. The Daily AKL-SYD 1300/1435/ SYD-AKL 1550/2055 is still showing as a 77E but can only be a 789 V2 now that AKL-HKG has changed to a 789 V2.

PA515
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6943
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:48 pm

PA515 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
PA515 wrote:
The Air NZ website 'Book' function has NZ87 / NZ80 switching from a 77E to the 789 v2 eff. 26 Nov. HKG-AKL will be 30 mins earlier. AKL-HKG 2345/0600, HKG-AKL 1725/0930. This is the same arrival time as the SIN-AKL 789 v2. The four v2 789s will be AKL-SIN-AKL Daily, AKL-HKG / HKG-AKL Daily and AKL-ORD We Fr Su.

Three of the nine v1 789s will not be used. Assume these will be ZK-NZI, ZK-NZJ (already out of action) and ZK-NZK. Some 77E and 77W maintenance may be occurring in the peak season.

The suspended three weekly AKL-HND has been replaced with three additional AKL-NRT Mo & Sa AKL-NRT 1300/1955, NRT-AKL 2125/1200 and Th AKL-NRT 1230/1925, NRT-AKL 2055/1130.

PA515


That makes sense re the 789’s so they can swap the V2 ones around with HKG/SIN arriving together.

I don’t think they will do any 777 mx in the peak Dec-Feb period. It does make the 772 fleet a bit light, long haul is now

AKL-YVR x7
AKL-EZE x5
AKL-IAH x4/5
AKL-SFO x1

Needs just over 5 frames, unless some or all of NRT is changing to 772 maybe?


There will only be nine of the ten 77Es in service, so I am assuming maintenance. My schedule sample is for the week 17-23 Dec 2018. I usually do it for a week earlier but the WLG-BNE and ZQN-BNE 320 flights commence from 17 Dec 2018.

ZK-NBT wrote:
I missed HNL which I think is NZ’s own 772 x5. Still only uses 6 772’s so plenty of slack.

789’s could be V1
NRT x10
PVG x 7
PER x7 ex AKL might be x6
KIX x3
TPE x3/4

I think they are allowing for up to 4 to be grounded at once.


Yes, it's only five 789 V1 in the schedule with the Mo-Fr plus Su 789 AKL-MEL 1525/1730, MEL-AKL 1845/0020 now changed to a 320. I expect that will be an A321NEO. There are some other changes as well like the Th & Sa NZ175 / NZ176 now a 77E. The schedule still has some incorrect aircraft types showing. The Daily AKL-SYD 1300/1435/ SYD-AKL 1550/2055 is still showing as a 77E but can only be a 789 V2 now that AKL-HKG has changed to a 789 V2.

PA515


It’s coming together slowly then. So we have the leases 772’s mainly on RAR-SYD/RAR-LAX atleast 1 weekly PPT, AKL/CHC-PER NZ177/178 ex AKL 5 weekly, that leaves half a week or so unused, probably just cover short haul where required, intact several AKL-RAR rotations a week are meant to get them, RAR is all 772 for NW.

Interesting NZ125/126 AKL-MEL going A320/321 but not surprising given the current issues. I’m picking the new NZ721/720 0610/0815 AKL-MEL-AKL 0930/1610 will be a 321 aswell.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4294
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:19 pm

NZ6 wrote:
1. Why did OZ pull out?

I don't understand why you insist on continuing to raise OZ's AKL stint, which was almost 15 years ago. Times change - heck, in the space of 15 years CA and UA dropped and re-started AKL, and NZ dropped and re-started DPS, KIX, SIN and YVR. So much has changed for the Korea - New Zealand corridor since 2003/04, including (but not limited to): for in-bound, 1) the Korea - New Zealand FTA (helping cargo flows), and 2) New Zealand's tourism boom (helping passenger flows), and for outbound, 1) Korea's appeal as a tourism destination itself, and 2) better connections and hub infrastructure at ICN.

The sustained growth in visitor arrivals has been impressive (growing double digits each year):

2014: 53,072
2015: 60,608
2016: 75,088
2017: 83,344
2018: 93,744

Yet, the majority of these arrivals continue to disregard KE's flight and use one-stop options (KE's AKL flights carried just 44,032 / 93,744 visitors in the year to June 2018). Interestingly, SYD is by far the most popular transit point (28,704 / 93,744 visitors for the same period), followed by TYO (which has quadrupled its share since 2014), indicating that the NZ-OZ codeshare partnership already has a base of traffic to work with, should it decide to go non-stop. IMO, given KE's well-known issues, now is the time to go non-stop - KE is at its weakest, and the market is the strongest it's been in a while.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4294
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:30 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
... like AKL it’s dominated by inbound tourism from Korea which they can’t compete with the home carriers KE/OZ.

In that case, NZ may as well dump its plans to launch TPE, and should consider abandoning PVG too - both heavily in-bound tourism-dominated markets. If the Asian-originating traffic flows are such a big issue for ICN specifically, then NZ could just make use of OZ - they already codeshare, so could form a JV (OZ is on the record stating that it wants long-haul expansion, but doesn't have the right planes), taking advantage of OZ's FFP network within Korea to market New Zealand to. Finally, I'd also add that although OZ's FFP base is weaker than KE's, NZ still has other advantages to compete against KE with, like 1) the breadth of its domestic network (I assume Koreans want to visit places like ZQN), and 2) cargo relationships with New Zealand exporters (Korea is one of our top 6 export markets).

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4294
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - September 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:45 pm

NZ6 wrote:
... we don't know why OZ pulled out, well publicly anyway.

A thread on here about the suspension (from 2005) said:

"The suspension of Asiana's Auckland-Seoul flights is attributed to a number of factors that have reduced demand in the inbound market from Korea to New Zealand and affected the profitability of the New Zealand operation. Among these factors are the relative strength of the New Zealand Dollar, which has made inbound tours more expensive, and the significant increase in the price of fuel." Interestingly, "Demand from the New Zealand end of the route has considerably exceeded Asiana's expectations."

See: viewtopic.php?t=306179.

Fast-forward from 2004 to 2018, and we now know that:

1) Oil now makes up a lower proportion of airline operating costs, thanks to fuel-efficient planes like the 789, and 359.
2) The NZD - KRW swap is about the same now as in 2004, but Koreans are wealthier, so more able to manage this.

Cheers,

C.
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