raylee67
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:50 pm

c933103 wrote:
Osaka mayor have formally requested the national government to temporarily ease regulation against international flights from/to UKB and ITM until KIX recover.

ITM has not been handling international flights for a long time. Are the immigration and customs facilities still there? It's probably more effective to switch all the KIX domestic flights to ITM and UKB, and switch as much KIX international flights to NGO as possible.

NGO has a lot of spare capacity to handle additional flights. And Nagoya is only about 1 hr of bullet train ride from Osaka. A limited number of regional international flights can probably switch to Okayama, which is about 1.5 hrs west of Osaka on bullet train.
319/20/21 332/33 342/43/45 35K 388 707 717 732/36/3G/38/39 74R/42/43/44/4E/48 757 762/63 772/7L/73/7W 788 D10 M80 135/40/45 175/90 DH1/4 CRJ/R7 L10
AY LH OU SR BA FI
AA DL UA NW AC CP WS FL NK
CI NH SQ KA CX JL BR OZ TG KE CA CZ NZ JQ RS
 
c933103
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:11 pm

raylee67 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Osaka mayor have formally requested the national government to temporarily ease regulation against international flights from/to UKB and ITM until KIX recover.

ITM has not been handling international flights for a long time. Are the immigration and customs facilities still there? It's probably more effective to switch all the KIX domestic flights to ITM and UKB, and switch as much KIX international flights to NGO as possible.

NGO has a lot of spare capacity to handle additional flights. And Nagoya is only about 1 hr of bullet train ride from Osaka. A limited number of regional international flights can probably switch to Okayama, which is about 1.5 hrs west of Osaka on bullet train.

ITM have handled some international charter flights in recent years so I guess some facilities should still exists there but I doubt would it be able to handle all those international flights at KIX.
UKB currently allow international charter flights too as long as it is a private charter for own use by charter corporation. So some degree of international passenger handling facilities should also exists there?
but actually, if all regulations are bypassed, including the noise regulation that prevented multi-engine aircraft operation at ITM, can ITM runway handle A380?
 
Etabc2012
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:17 pm

A Peach aircraft JA817P operate as MM9002 just flown from FUK and landed on KIX at LCT 21:11
https://fr24.com/data/aircraft/ja817p#1dc1e5c8
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:35 pm

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/national/2018 ... 50140.html (Again, Japanese only)

Plan right now is reopening at least part of the airport next week, namely, T2 and "Runway B" (6L/24R), which neither were damaged. The requirement right now:
- Fix sewage system in T2
- Get Aircraft Fueling Facilities up and running
- Temporary fix to the bridge, namely, use the side of the bridge that's not damaged by the tanker and somehow divert traffic that way

For now, IMO NGO will probably take most of the load for KIX. Not sure how long it'll take them to get temporary immigration/custom facility into ITM if they choose to go down that path (And even then, ITM can only handle so much extra traffic itself).
 
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CARST
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:55 pm

raylee67 wrote:
globetrotter94 wrote:

Yep, I'm counting on the Kansai Airport Port becoming the lifeline in the upcoming weeks. They'll have to step up bus connections between the port and terminal as well.


That reminds me a few years ago when a ship hit the bridge connecting to HKG, and the bridge was closed for a few hours. Even that caused major disruption to traffic to/from the airport.

I cannot imagine there are nearly enough ferries and people to operate them, to even cover 10% of the capacity of the bridge.


Can't they use military amphibian landing boats? I'm sure the Japanese Defence Forces are well equipped. And perhaps they could ask the Americans at Okinawa for help, too. At least then all this military equipment once get used for something useful that helps people.
 
mdavies06
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Wed Sep 05, 2018 3:17 pm

CARST wrote:
raylee67 wrote:
globetrotter94 wrote:

Yep, I'm counting on the Kansai Airport Port becoming the lifeline in the upcoming weeks. They'll have to step up bus connections between the port and terminal as well.


That reminds me a few years ago when a ship hit the bridge connecting to HKG, and the bridge was closed for a few hours. Even that caused major disruption to traffic to/from the airport.

I cannot imagine there are nearly enough ferries and people to operate them, to even cover 10% of the capacity of the bridge.


Can't they use military amphibian landing boats? I'm sure the Japanese Defence Forces are well equipped. And perhaps they could ask the Americans at Okinawa for help, too. At least then all this military equipment once get used for something useful that helps people.


Asking the US military was my first thought as well (similar to Sendai airport from the 2011 tsunami), but the damage in KIX seems much less severe than Sendai. Maybe maybe not.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Wed Sep 05, 2018 3:24 pm

Some random upgauge while I was browsing through FR24:

NGO:
CI154/155 (to/from TPE), normally B738, upgauge to B744: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/ci154
KE751/752 (to/from ICN), normally A332/A333, upgauge to B744: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/ke752
OZ120/121 (to/from ICN), normally A321, upgauge to B772: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/oz121
MU529/530 (to/from PVG), normally A320, upgauge to A333 on the 5th: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/mu530
MU719/720 (to/from PVG), normally A320, upgauge to A332 on the 5th: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/mu720
VN340/341 (to/from SGN), normally A321, upgauge to B789: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/vn341 (Normally both KIX flights to/from HAN and SGN are on B789)
VN346/347 (to/from HAN), normally A321, upgauge to A359: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/vn347
PR436/437 (to/from MNL), normally A321, upgauge to A333: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/pr437
LH736/737 (to/from FRA), normally A343, upgauge to B744: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/lh736

OKJ:
HX6682/6683 (to/from HKG), normally A321, upgauge to A333: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/hx6683
KE747/748 (to/from ICN), normally B739, upgauge to A332/A333: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/ke748

There are probably more flights that was upgauge. Some of the upgauge may also be just due to the fact that most flights on the 4th to/from NGO was also cancelled.

NGO spotters will see plenty of widebodies that normally doesn't fly there the next 2-3 days, though.

EDIT:
mdavies06 wrote:
CARST wrote:
raylee67 wrote:

That reminds me a few years ago when a ship hit the bridge connecting to HKG, and the bridge was closed for a few hours. Even that caused major disruption to traffic to/from the airport.

I cannot imagine there are nearly enough ferries and people to operate them, to even cover 10% of the capacity of the bridge.


Can't they use military amphibian landing boats? I'm sure the Japanese Defence Forces are well equipped. And perhaps they could ask the Americans at Okinawa for help, too. At least then all this military equipment once get used for something useful that helps people.


Asking the US military was my first thought as well (similar to Sendai airport from the 2011 tsunami), but the damage in KIX seems much less severe than Sendai. Maybe maybe not.


There is just not the need. You're talking about a very localized situation which people were stranded, but even then, it's not like KIX has zero resources on the island.

Damages otherwise may look bad, but not crazily severe. There are your typical things like down power line (thus power outages), some wind damages to building (especially those that are under construction/rennovation). Otherwise, the only place that got affected badly by the storm surge is KIX. 90% of Osaka area are already back up and running anyway, along with most of the train network (although with delays, since some of the power line on rail lines were damaged).

Keep in mind how widespread the damages were during the 2011 earthquake/tsunami. You're talking about 300mi of coast, villages that were literally flatten, and also a nuclear incident occurring.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:31 pm

Wall street Journal reporting that KIX will be closed indefinitely.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/typhoon-da ... 1536057425

A reminder, based on the pictures I've seen in this thread and elsewhere, that typhoons/hurricanes are not to be down played, no matter what you may think.
 
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kjeld0d
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:50 pm

Never underestimate the power of the Jebi.
 
xxcr
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:16 pm

with KIX being shutdown till repairs are made, could ITM pick up the slack from KIX?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:29 pm

CARST wrote:
raylee67 wrote:
globetrotter94 wrote:

Yep, I'm counting on the Kansai Airport Port becoming the lifeline in the upcoming weeks. They'll have to step up bus connections between the port and terminal as well.


That reminds me a few years ago when a ship hit the bridge connecting to HKG, and the bridge was closed for a few hours. Even that caused major disruption to traffic to/from the airport.

I cannot imagine there are nearly enough ferries and people to operate them, to even cover 10% of the capacity of the bridge.


Can't they use military amphibian landing boats? I'm sure the Japanese Defence Forces are well equipped. And perhaps they could ask the Americans at Okinawa for help, too. At least then all this military equipment once get used for something useful that helps people.

Errr... The IDF has some, but are too poorly equiped to do much of anything. Actual defense spending in Japan is negligible.

The US could help, but this is a sovereignty issue. Japan places restrictions on the US that requires a formal request and waivers. Because of Japanese hostility to US forces, much of the equipment has been deployed elsewhere, including US based. Is there an Amphibious assault vessel in Okinawa? Those LCACs require a support team. Other equipment would tear up KIX. But put people on to a bus that is LCAC'd over... Easy. But fuel intensive.

Sad the airport is shut.

Lightsaber
You only have the first amendment with the 2nd. If you're not going to offend someone with what you say, you don't have the 1st.
 
c933103
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:41 am

Abe: Domestic flights into/out of KIX will reopen on tomorrow (7th) mud-day, international flights later
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:08 am

c933103 wrote:
Abe: Domestic flights into/out of KIX will reopen on tomorrow (7th) mud-day, international flights later


Well, at least that's the plan, if everyone goes right. Still tons of work to be done, though, mainly repairs to the refueling facility.

The news (Again, Japanese only...English news sources in Japan are painfully slow in terms of updates):
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/201809 ... social_003
 
c933103
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:23 am

All people in the Kansai airport who want to be evacuate have been evacuated by the time of today 1am local time.
 
sandbender
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:59 am

lightsaber wrote:
But put people on to a bus that is LCAC'd over... Easy. But fuel intensive.


If it came to that I imagine they'd put buses on either side and just use standard ferries to shuttle people. The dock/pier at KIX is setup for foot traffic and would require modifications to support roll-on/roll-off anyway. Freight for carriers and supplies for the airport itself are another issue, I believe that all has to go over the bridge.

And lightsaber is 100% correct about the political issues that would surround involving the US Military. Practicality aside, even the mere suggestion would kill any politicians chances at re-election.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:10 am

JAL announce some extra international flights in/out of NRT for KIX pax:
https://www.jal.co.jp/en/info/inter/180905.html
 
c933103
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:00 am

https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASL9642LCL96PTIL00R.html
KIX T2 including the domestic terminal with the second runway are on the second phase island so that's easier to deal with and can be open on 7th
And it said it's difficult to accept international flight at UKB/ITM however from the wording it seems like they are going to think about the possibility anyway
 
77H
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Re: Typhoon Jebi heading to Japan, Any reported disruptions?

Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:58 am

izbtmnhd wrote:
c933103 wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
Yes it was Cat 5 storm in the Tropical Pacific. By the time it reaches Japan it will be fast moving weak Cat 1 storm hitting near Osaka.

Japanese don’t share the weather hysteria Americans have recently developed which is why they don’t think it’s a big deal. The islands get hit with quite a few storms every year.

... some Japanese News are still saying it could be the first typhoon in 25 years to make landfall as Japanese main islands at a very strong intensity (85knot+ wind speed).
I would say those warning given by American agency/media to area forecasted to be affected by hurricane are not unjustified. More information will be necessary to help people better understand what kind of preparation they would need, but in those area that Hurricanes rarely hit, only limited amount of information can be put onto receivers with limited influence along with the ever-evolving uncertainty in forecast so what you can tell them would be how to face the event in this period of time instead of telling them why it might not hit that won't really be helpful


I understand your point and disagree. I would say running headlines of Hurricane Lane as a Cat 4 storm to strike Hawaii was overhyping a CPHC forecast which showed Lane falling apart consistenly and never making landfall.

Anyway, JTWC has the typhoon at 75kts gusting to 90 at landfall. That’s a Cat 1 Hurricane. At little stronger than Jongdari earlier in the summer. We’ll see what happens.

It’s just going to be windy and rainy in Tokyo. Not much effect for aviation at HND or NRT.

The worst part is it’s hitting areas which have already seen above normal rains since the wet season started.


As a Hawaii resident on Oahu I can corroborate your assertion that Lane was massively overhyped. There were local news agencies likening the storm to hurricane Maria and to expect similar impacts to that of PR. There was even rumors floating around that a closed door governmental meeting was convened in HNL wherein they were discussing the storm stalling right over O’ahu as a strong Cat II.

This created a hysteria that led to runs on grocery stores and gas stations across the state. After the storm passed many took to social media complaining they bought more provisions then the could really afford. A total mess all for the sake of clicks and TV ratings. The sad part is, this is the 3rd or 4th hurricane to be overhyped in Hawaii only to turn out to be largely a dud. Cry wolf too many times and no one bats an eye when the real thing shows up. That’s what worries me.

77H
 
hayzel777
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:39 pm

How long will KIX be down? BR told staff that KIX told them no flights till the 11th.
 
c933103
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Re: Typhoon Jebi heading to Japan, Any reported disruptions?

Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:06 pm

77H wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
c933103 wrote:
... some Japanese News are still saying it could be the first typhoon in 25 years to make landfall as Japanese main islands at a very strong intensity (85knot+ wind speed).
I would say those warning given by American agency/media to area forecasted to be affected by hurricane are not unjustified. More information will be necessary to help people better understand what kind of preparation they would need, but in those area that Hurricanes rarely hit, only limited amount of information can be put onto receivers with limited influence along with the ever-evolving uncertainty in forecast so what you can tell them would be how to face the event in this period of time instead of telling them why it might not hit that won't really be helpful


I understand your point and disagree. I would say running headlines of Hurricane Lane as a Cat 4 storm to strike Hawaii was overhyping a CPHC forecast which showed Lane falling apart consistenly and never making landfall.

Anyway, JTWC has the typhoon at 75kts gusting to 90 at landfall. That’s a Cat 1 Hurricane. At little stronger than Jongdari earlier in the summer. We’ll see what happens.

It’s just going to be windy and rainy in Tokyo. Not much effect for aviation at HND or NRT.

The worst part is it’s hitting areas which have already seen above normal rains since the wet season started.


As a Hawaii resident on Oahu I can corroborate your assertion that Lane was massively overhyped. There were local news agencies likening the storm to hurricane Maria and to expect similar impacts to that of PR. There was even rumors floating around that a closed door governmental meeting was convened in HNL wherein they were discussing the storm stalling right over O’ahu as a strong Cat II.

This created a hysteria that led to runs on grocery stores and gas stations across the state. After the storm passed many took to social media complaining they bought more provisions then the could really afford. A total mess all for the sake of clicks and TV ratings. The sad part is, this is the 3rd or 4th hurricane to be overhyped in Hawaii only to turn out to be largely a dud. Cry wolf too many times and no one bats an eye when the real thing shows up. That’s what worries me.

77H

Those were real possibility according to simulation at the time, but just that it didn't realize
 
c933103
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:08 pm

hayzel777 wrote:
How long will KIX be down? BR told staff that KIX told them no flights till the 11th.

Domestic flights will resume tomorrow but international flights will probably be continually suspended for far longer
 
slvrblt
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Re: Typhoon Jebi heading to Japan, Any reported disruptions?

Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:40 pm

77H wrote:
As a Hawaii resident on Oahu I can corroborate your assertion that Lane was massively overhyped. There were local news agencies likening the storm to hurricane Maria and to expect similar impacts to that of PR. There was even rumors floating around that a closed door governmental meeting was convened in HNL wherein they were discussing the storm stalling right over O’ahu as a strong Cat II.

This created a hysteria that led to runs on grocery stores and gas stations across the state. After the storm passed many took to social media complaining they bought more provisions then the could really afford. A total mess all for the sake of clicks and TV ratings. The sad part is, this is the 3rd or 4th hurricane to be overhyped in Hawaii only to turn out to be largely a dud. Cry wolf too many times and no one bats an eye when the real thing shows up. That’s what worries me.

77H


Agree totally; the ''cry wolf'' theme occurred to me instantly too, talking to some friends from Hawaii who told me, ''never again, not going to worry about storms that never happen.''

Until, they do. Rule #1: Never turn your back on a hurricane. I've lived in south Florida all my life, so I've seen lots of storms, large and small. Hurricanes are nothing if not unpredictable. NHC has made great strides in recent years but hurricane predictions are still an inexact science. So, you ignore the approach of a storm at your peril. Even a near-miss (depending on what side of the storm you are ) can cause great damage and flooding. Bottom line - ignore the talking head alarmists, but listen to the scientists (like National Hurricane Center) and use some common sense.
..everything works out in the end.
 
77H
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Re: Typhoon Jebi heading to Japan, Any reported disruptions?

Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:55 pm

c933103 wrote:
77H wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:

I understand your point and disagree. I would say running headlines of Hurricane Lane as a Cat 4 storm to strike Hawaii was overhyping a CPHC forecast which showed Lane falling apart consistenly and never making landfall.

Anyway, JTWC has the typhoon at 75kts gusting to 90 at landfall. That’s a Cat 1 Hurricane. At little stronger than Jongdari earlier in the summer. We’ll see what happens.

It’s just going to be windy and rainy in Tokyo. Not much effect for aviation at HND or NRT.

The worst part is it’s hitting areas which have already seen above normal rains since the wet season started.


As a Hawaii resident on Oahu I can corroborate your assertion that Lane was massively overhyped. There were local news agencies likening the storm to hurricane Maria and to expect similar impacts to that of PR. There was even rumors floating around that a closed door governmental meeting was convened in HNL wherein they were discussing the storm stalling right over O’ahu as a strong Cat II.

This created a hysteria that led to runs on grocery stores and gas stations across the state. After the storm passed many took to social media complaining they bought more provisions then the could really afford. A total mess all for the sake of clicks and TV ratings. The sad part is, this is the 3rd or 4th hurricane to be overhyped in Hawaii only to turn out to be largely a dud. Cry wolf too many times and no one bats an eye when the real thing shows up. That’s what worries me.

77H

Those were real possibility according to simulation at the time, but just that it didn't realize


Sure, if you discount the fact that Hawaii frequently has strong upper level wind shear most of the year and is situated in a cold water current, neither of which are conducive to cyclonic formation or intensification. The Caribbean Sea is bath water comparatively to the Central Pacific.

The last major Hurricane to cause siginficant (Maria/Katrina) damage to Hawaii was the infamous Iniki. If you look at it’s recorded track, the hurricane stayed well south of the island chain where warmer ocean surface temps exist and took an abrupt turn north moving rapidly towards the islands there after essentially riding on the SW->NE upper level trough that causes a lot of that aforementioned wind shear. The storm was so well defined and moved so quickly that it maintained much of its intensity as it approached Kauai and Oahu. Contrast that with Lane that approached from the south much closer to the island chain in the cold water current, moving against that wind shear inducing trough and well... we all saw the result.

My main point in the original post was that the media “over hyped” the storm for their own gain. What should have been broadcast was to not take the threat lying down but also use common sense. There were people filling their truck beds with half a years worth of supplies and are now complaining they’re broke. So guess what they’re gonna do next time? I think the fool me twice addage comes into play and that’s what makes the wanton sensationslism dangerous.

77H
 
ikramerica
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Re: Typhoon Jebi heading to Japan, Any reported disruptions?

Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:03 pm

slvrblt wrote:
77H wrote:
As a Hawaii resident on Oahu I can corroborate your assertion that Lane was massively overhyped. There were local news agencies likening the storm to hurricane Maria and to expect similar impacts to that of PR. There was even rumors floating around that a closed door governmental meeting was convened in HNL wherein they were discussing the storm stalling right over O’ahu as a strong Cat II.

This created a hysteria that led to runs on grocery stores and gas stations across the state. After the storm passed many took to social media complaining they bought more provisions then the could really afford. A total mess all for the sake of clicks and TV ratings. The sad part is, this is the 3rd or 4th hurricane to be overhyped in Hawaii only to turn out to be largely a dud. Cry wolf too many times and no one bats an eye when the real thing shows up. That’s what worries me.

77H


Agree totally; the ''cry wolf'' theme occurred to me instantly too, talking to some friends from Hawaii who told me, ''never again, not going to worry about storms that never happen.''

Until, they do. Rule #1: Never turn your back on a hurricane. I've lived in south Florida all my life, so I've seen lots of storms, large and small. Hurricanes are nothing if not unpredictable. NHC has made great strides in recent years but hurricane predictions are still an inexact science. So, you ignore the approach of a storm at your peril. Even a near-miss (depending on what side of the storm you are ) can cause great damage and flooding. Bottom line - ignore the talking head alarmists, but listen to the scientists (like National Hurricane Center) and use some common sense.

This happened to Key West before Georges in that there were so many overhyped warnings over the years that people didn’t heed.

Georges was only a Cat2 but it stalled over Key West for hours. The storm surge hit both sides of the island and flooded duval street, and the water was 1/2 way up our front walkway at the peak. No power for days, airport disabled for longer.

People heed the warnings now and it’s a good thing because Key West has been hit a few times since then. Let’s hope the Hawaiians realize that every time it’s serious.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:13 pm

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/201809 ... s-main_005

Operation at KIX tomorrow: (All using T2 and 6L/24R)
- 17 flights on Peach to NRT, KIJ, NGS, etc.; First flight out will be on 1150 to KIJ.
- 2 flights on JAL to HND
- ANA had cancelled all their flights (including domestic one) until the 9th
- Access to Airport will still be limited. Personal Vehicle will not be allow on the bridge. Instead pax will have to ride on shuttle buses to/from JR Hineno Station and Nankai Izumi-Sano Station (The two stations where the train normally branch off going to KIX).
- Rail lines will remained closed. Damages were reported on the rail bridge with the rail track shifted ~50cm and damages to the power line

Meanwhile, seems like multiple Peach planes are back into KIX. From FR24 I see JA803P, JA804P, JA805P, JA809P, JA810P (Coming from CTS :shock: ), JA812P, JA819P, and JA821P (Also coming from CTS :shock: ) all landed at, or scheduled to landed at, KIX this evening.
 
c933103
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Re: Typhoon Jebi heading to Japan, Any reported disruptions?

Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:29 pm

77H wrote:
c933103 wrote:
77H wrote:

As a Hawaii resident on Oahu I can corroborate your assertion that Lane was massively overhyped. There were local news agencies likening the storm to hurricane Maria and to expect similar impacts to that of PR. There was even rumors floating around that a closed door governmental meeting was convened in HNL wherein they were discussing the storm stalling right over O’ahu as a strong Cat II.

This created a hysteria that led to runs on grocery stores and gas stations across the state. After the storm passed many took to social media complaining they bought more provisions then the could really afford. A total mess all for the sake of clicks and TV ratings. The sad part is, this is the 3rd or 4th hurricane to be overhyped in Hawaii only to turn out to be largely a dud. Cry wolf too many times and no one bats an eye when the real thing shows up. That’s what worries me.

77H

Those were real possibility according to simulation at the time, but just that it didn't realize


Sure, if you discount the fact that Hawaii frequently has strong upper level wind shear most of the year and is situated in a cold water current, neither of which are conducive to cyclonic formation or intensification. The Caribbean Sea is bath water comparatively to the Central Pacific.

The last major Hurricane to cause siginficant (Maria/Katrina) damage to Hawaii was the infamous Iniki. If you look at it’s recorded track, the hurricane stayed well south of the island chain where warmer ocean surface temps exist and took an abrupt turn north moving rapidly towards the islands there after essentially riding on the SW->NE upper level trough that causes a lot of that aforementioned wind shear. The storm was so well defined and moved so quickly that it maintained much of its intensity as it approached Kauai and Oahu. Contrast that with Lane that approached from the south much closer to the island chain in the cold water current, moving against that wind shear inducing trough and well... we all saw the result.

My main point in the original post was that the media “over hyped” the storm for their own gain. What should have been broadcast was to not take the threat lying down but also use common sense. There were people filling their truck beds with half a years worth of supplies and are now complaining they’re broke. So guess what they’re gonna do next time? I think the fool me twice addage comes into play and that’s what makes the wanton sensationslism dangerous.

77H

I am pretty sure upper level shear and lower sea temperature are factors that computer simulation model usually taken into account when they made cyclone forecast, that's why they aren't being treated likely when such forecast was made. Those are ordinary environment but no environment stay ordinary for 100% of the time. Saying how past cyclones perform also doesn't helps in this case when it's agreed that this cyclone is not performing in a way like others. Usually when a cyclone is predicted to, or actually sitting at a relatively stationary position, it represent a lack of guiding force putting the cyclone toward where they usually goes and that's why they're shown as stationary in the computer simulation. From what I heard a while ago, the wind shear that teared Lane apart come from (a high pressure system?) somewhere further west and it wasn't really expected to interact with the cyclone in time before damaging effects occur to the islands. It was not the environment it continuously stayed in as you described otherwise it wouldn't be developed into a Cat4 in the first place.

Indeed the media seems like they can do better to communicate the level of uncertainty but people who goes all the way out and broke themselves by buying excessive supplies like for half year just seems unneeded. Even if it's Maria's situation I still can't think how half year long supply could be needed.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 1870
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:28 pm

Meanwhile, 747 lovers have a field day in NGO: (Alongside the aforemention VN 359 + 789 instead of the 2x A321 that they usually run to NGO)
https://twitter.com/sakurazero911/statu ... 9438025728

Along with Dual 787-10 sighting at the same time: (One of them being from the extra flight SQ is running)
https://twitter.com/aki806/status/1037645803995594752

NGO right now is definitely picking up most of the slacks from KIX, being the closest large international airport.
 
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 1870
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:00 pm

EvanWSFO wrote:


I did create a thread on that topic, just that it sink to p.2 pretty quickly:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1403245

I mean, it's a topic that doesn't involved A380, or B6 starting TATL, or how AA suck badly and is going to go out of business soon. So not surprisingly, nobody cares :duck: (Actually, I forgot about "Why doesn't (insert random airline here) fly to (insert random, obscure airport here)" 'discussion').
 
EvanWSFO
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:12 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
EvanWSFO wrote:


I did create a thread on that topic, just that it sink to p.2 pretty quickly:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1403245

I mean, it's a topic that doesn't involved A380, or B6 starting TATL, or how AA suck badly and is going to go out of business soon. So not surprisingly, nobody cares :duck: (Actually, I forgot about "Why doesn't (insert random airline here) fly to (insert random, obscure airport here)" 'discussion').


Thanks. I get it. Seems everyone wants it all in one thread. Search feature isn't always that great. This being a totally different incident, but affecting the same nation's aviation system should be able to stand alone.
 
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hongkongflyer
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:02 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20180906/k10011614801000.html?utm_int=news_contents_news-main_005

Operation at KIX tomorrow: (All using T2 and 6L/24R)
- 17 flights on Peach to NRT, KIJ, NGS, etc.; First flight out will be on 1150 to KIJ.
- 2 flights on JAL to HND
- ANA had cancelled all their flights (including domestic one) until the 9th
- Access to Airport will still be limited. Personal Vehicle will not be allow on the bridge. Instead pax will have to ride on shuttle buses to/from JR Hineno Station and Nankai Izumi-Sano Station (The two stations where the train normally branch off going to KIX).
- Rail lines will remained closed. Damages were reported on the rail bridge with the rail track shifted ~50cm and damages to the power line

Meanwhile, seems like multiple Peach planes are back into KIX. From FR24 I see JA803P, JA804P, JA805P, JA809P, JA810P (Coming from CTS :shock: ), JA812P, JA819P, and JA821P (Also coming from CTS :shock: ) all landed at, or scheduled to landed at, KIX this evening.


The damages CTS suffered are minor and mainly inside the terminal (decoration; ceiling panel etc) and the runway itself has not been damaged
 
c933103
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:05 am

https://r.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO3509 ... 2018MM0000
Some international flights resuming on the 8th. Runway A reopening in a week
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 1870
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:57 am

c933103 wrote:
https://r.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO3509777007092018MM0000
Some international flights resuming on the 8th. Runway A reopening in a week


Just more info:
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/201809 ... -items_011

- Intl flight should resumed tomorrow, although only the one operate by Peach (at least some of those).
- T1 is planned to be reopen in a week, along with "Runway A" (6R/24L). After T1 reopen, there should be more flights in/out of KIX.
- The plan is to fix the bridge within a month
 
c933103
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:00 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://r.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO3509777007092018MM0000
Some international flights resuming on the 8th. Runway A reopening in a week


Just more info:
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/201809 ... -items_011

- Intl flight should resumed tomorrow, although only the one operate by Peach (at least some of those).
- T1 is planned to be reopen in a week, along with "Runway A" (6R/24L). After T1 reopen, there should be more flights in/out of KIX.
- The plan is to fix the bridge within a month

https://mainichi.jp/articles/20180908/k ... 40/101000c
"Full" restoration will take up to half year?
And international flights to ITM/UKB
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:29 pm

c933103 wrote:
https://mainichi.jp/articles/20180908/k ... 40/101000c
"Full" restoration will take up to half year?
And international flights to ITM/UKB


International Flights to ITM/UKB is still, well, "under discussion". Japanese, when they actually act on something, are very efficient. Japanese bureaucracy is anything but efficient, though. I would say opening up UKB to some international flight is more likely as there are plenty of capacity there (They put an artificial 30 round trips per day in UKB just to protect ITM and KIX anyway, even though they're all now under the same management company).

But "full" restoration would likely take awhile. They're planning to open part of T1 by next week, but it probably won't be 100% capacity.

Flights tomorrow (8th):
https://www.kansai-airport.or.jp/sites/ ... C%89_0.pdf

MM is back to running about 80% of the normal schedule. Doesn't seems like JL will run any flight tomorrow, though (they ran a single round-trip to/from HND today).

Meanwhile, we're likely to see airlines continue to upgauged their NGO or NRT/HND flights.
 
c933103
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:32 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://mainichi.jp/articles/20180908/k ... 40/101000c
"Full" restoration will take up to half year?
And international flights to ITM/UKB


International Flights to ITM/UKB is still, well, "under discussion". Japanese, when they actually act on something, are very efficient. Japanese bureaucracy is anything but efficient, though. I would say opening up UKB to some international flight is more likely as there are plenty of capacity there (They put an artificial 30 round trips per day in UKB just to protect ITM and KIX anyway, even though they're all now under the same management company).

But "full" restoration would likely take awhile. They're planning to open part of T1 by next week, but it probably won't be 100% capacity.

Flights tomorrow (8th):
https://www.kansai-airport.or.jp/sites/ ... C%89_0.pdf

MM is back to running about 80% of the normal schedule. Doesn't seems like JL will run any flight tomorrow, though (they ran a single round-trip to/from HND today).

Meanwhile, we're likely to see airlines continue to upgauged their NGO or NRT/HND flights.

Airport authority seems to be saying up to 70 flights shift to ITM and UKB would be possible within current system
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:36 pm

c933103 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://mainichi.jp/articles/20180908/k ... 40/101000c
"Full" restoration will take up to half year?
And international flights to ITM/UKB


International Flights to ITM/UKB is still, well, "under discussion". Japanese, when they actually act on something, are very efficient. Japanese bureaucracy is anything but efficient, though. I would say opening up UKB to some international flight is more likely as there are plenty of capacity there (They put an artificial 30 round trips per day in UKB just to protect ITM and KIX anyway, even though they're all now under the same management company).

But "full" restoration would likely take awhile. They're planning to open part of T1 by next week, but it probably won't be 100% capacity.

Flights tomorrow (8th):
https://www.kansai-airport.or.jp/sites/ ... C%89_0.pdf

MM is back to running about 80% of the normal schedule. Doesn't seems like JL will run any flight tomorrow, though (they ran a single round-trip to/from HND today).

Meanwhile, we're likely to see airlines continue to upgauged their NGO or NRT/HND flights.

Airport authority seems to be saying up to 70 flights shift to ITM and UKB would be possible within current system


Yep, 40 at ITM, 30 at UKB. Still only about 20% of total flights that goes in and out of KIX (excluding Peach, which is back to 90% capacity), though.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/201809 ... A%E6%B8%AF

On a side note, gotta love Japanese bureaucracy. Talk, Plan, Discussion, and by the time ITM or UKB open up to international traffic, KIX is probably going to be back up and running :scratchchin:
 
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zeke
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:56 pm

KIX will resume flights today with 19 domestic flights from T2, CTS will also restart today.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:03 pm

zeke wrote:
KIX will resume flights today with 19 domestic flights from T2, CTS will also restart today.


Except JL is only operating 1 round trips (to/from HND) and NH is also only operating 1 round trips (to/from PVG). Peach is back operating at about 90% capacity, as is Spring Airlines, since both used Terminal 2 that was not damaged by the storm.

https://www.kansai-airport.or.jp/sites/ ... %AA%9E.pdf

CTS is fully up and running, though.
 
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zeke
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:16 pm

CTS is not fully up and running, transport is limited to the airport with the rail line damaged, inside the terminal there is a number of issues which is impacting operations.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
hayzel777
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:06 am

BR has been given permission by KIX airport authority to operate a single daily flight between TPE and KIX from Sept 14-Sept20. Resumption of it's normal schedule will not happen till they are given permission. When schedule restarts, BR is immediately dropping one of the daily flights and reducing capacity.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 1870
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:36 am

I believe part of Terminal 1 and the other runway (6R/24L) are both supposed to be reopen sometimes this week (14th is the plan IIRC). That should help with actually having a few more flights going into KIX. Access will remain a problem, though, as the current system (shuttle buses) simply cannot handle as many passengers as trains + private vehicles + highway buses.

Meanwhile, they are STILL discussing about opening up UKB and ITM to international flights. Japanese bureaucracy at its best. :banghead: :banghead: . Main concern are noise (They proposed extending "curfew" at ITM from 9pm to 10pm; but seriously, between that and the continuing economic impact of greater Kansai area as tourists are going elsewhere?) and finding space for immigration/custom/quarantine facilities (Which can be a problem, but quite frankly, if they stop just discussing and actually act on it, it can be done by now).
 
juliuswong
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:14 am

AirAsia X operation at Osaka remained impacted two days ago (10th Sept local time). One of my friends was still stuck there, AirAsia X is re-routing everyone through Tokyo or Sapporo. To get to either location is own cost basis. Unfortunately Tokyo is fully booked until today 12th Sept 2018. She flew into Sapporo (RM 500 plus for one way ticket) and is flying back today via CTS.

By the way, AirAsia X helpdesk was trying to wrest their way out of the situation by claiming it is natural disaster, their chat person was reluctant to help. AirAsia X helpdesk left so much to be desired for, especially in such situation.
- Life is a journey, travel it well -
 
c933103
Posts: 2996
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:21 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
c933103 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:

International Flights to ITM/UKB is still, well, "under discussion". Japanese, when they actually act on something, are very efficient. Japanese bureaucracy is anything but efficient, though. I would say opening up UKB to some international flight is more likely as there are plenty of capacity there (They put an artificial 30 round trips per day in UKB just to protect ITM and KIX anyway, even though they're all now under the same management company).

But "full" restoration would likely take awhile. They're planning to open part of T1 by next week, but it probably won't be 100% capacity.

Flights tomorrow (8th):
https://www.kansai-airport.or.jp/sites/ ... C%89_0.pdf

MM is back to running about 80% of the normal schedule. Doesn't seems like JL will run any flight tomorrow, though (they ran a single round-trip to/from HND today).

Meanwhile, we're likely to see airlines continue to upgauged their NGO or NRT/HND flights.

Airport authority seems to be saying up to 70 flights shift to ITM and UKB would be possible within current system


Yep, 40 at ITM, 30 at UKB. Still only about 20% of total flights that goes in and out of KIX (excluding Peach, which is back to 90% capacity), though.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/201809 ... A%E6%B8%AF

On a side note, gotta love Japanese bureaucracy. Talk, Plan, Discussion, and by the time ITM or UKB open up to international traffic, KIX is probably going to be back up and running :scratchchin:

And it seems like the national government approved additional flights at ITM with international flights included
 
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HELyes
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:01 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
NGO will probably take most of the load for KIX.


Finnair moved their daily KIX flight (A350) to NGO till 17 September, so they now serve NGO 2x daily.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:27 pm

juliuswong wrote:
AirAsia X operation at Osaka remained impacted two days ago (10th Sept local time). One of my friends was still stuck there, AirAsia X is re-routing everyone through Tokyo or Sapporo. To get to either location is own cost basis. Unfortunately Tokyo is fully booked until today 12th Sept 2018. She flew into Sapporo (RM 500 plus for one way ticket) and is flying back today via CTS.

By the way, AirAsia X helpdesk was trying to wrest their way out of the situation by claiming it is natural disaster, their chat person was reluctant to help. AirAsia X helpdesk left so much to be desired for, especially in such situation.


That's the risk with LCC in general anyway. When things work, good. But if there is any emergency? Good luck trying to find anybody to help you.

c933103 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Airport authority seems to be saying up to 70 flights shift to ITM and UKB would be possible within current system


Yep, 40 at ITM, 30 at UKB. Still only about 20% of total flights that goes in and out of KIX (excluding Peach, which is back to 90% capacity), though.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/201809 ... A%E6%B8%AF

On a side note, gotta love Japanese bureaucracy. Talk, Plan, Discussion, and by the time ITM or UKB open up to international traffic, KIX is probably going to be back up and running :scratchchin:

And it seems like the national government approved additional flights at ITM with international flights included


Indeed. Now we'll see who get those very limited "slots". I can see a few regional international flights (to South Korea/Taiwan/HK/PRC) and most likely flights to ISG/MMY (although those can work out better from UKB IMO), or perhaps an additional flight or two to Tokyo. 40 flights (so 20 round trips I assumed) is not much, though.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:48 pm

Today the 1st of 2 damaged 90m bridge girders was lifted from the bridge by a large floating crane. The 2nd girder should be lifted of the bridge on Friday.

article in Japanese:
https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO35 ... 0C1LKA000/

https://twitter.com/eizo_desk/status/10 ... 7981105157

The girders will be inspected on land to see if they can be repaired or if they need to be completely replaced. After the removal of the girders the railroad bridge can be further inspected to see what is needed to resume train services. Although it's already expected that the trains will run again before the end of the month, much faster than the 4 weeks that were expected earlier.

It's unclear when the road bridge will be fully reopened.
 
c933103
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:57 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
juliuswong wrote:
AirAsia X operation at Osaka remained impacted two days ago (10th Sept local time). One of my friends was still stuck there, AirAsia X is re-routing everyone through Tokyo or Sapporo. To get to either location is own cost basis. Unfortunately Tokyo is fully booked until today 12th Sept 2018. She flew into Sapporo (RM 500 plus for one way ticket) and is flying back today via CTS.

By the way, AirAsia X helpdesk was trying to wrest their way out of the situation by claiming it is natural disaster, their chat person was reluctant to help. AirAsia X helpdesk left so much to be desired for, especially in such situation.


That's the risk with LCC in general anyway. When things work, good. But if there is any emergency? Good luck trying to find anybody to help you.


As I posted in the thread about CTS there are people who were using FSC like HX but was given same treatment. Although maybe one can argue that HX don't really count as FSC in some aspects
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:44 pm

c933103 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
juliuswong wrote:
AirAsia X operation at Osaka remained impacted two days ago (10th Sept local time). One of my friends was still stuck there, AirAsia X is re-routing everyone through Tokyo or Sapporo. To get to either location is own cost basis. Unfortunately Tokyo is fully booked until today 12th Sept 2018. She flew into Sapporo (RM 500 plus for one way ticket) and is flying back today via CTS.

By the way, AirAsia X helpdesk was trying to wrest their way out of the situation by claiming it is natural disaster, their chat person was reluctant to help. AirAsia X helpdesk left so much to be desired for, especially in such situation.


That's the risk with LCC in general anyway. When things work, good. But if there is any emergency? Good luck trying to find anybody to help you.


As I posted in the thread about CTS there are people who were using FSC like HX but was given same treatment. Although maybe one can argue that HX don't really count as FSC in some aspects


It's just bad customer "service" by HX. But yes, FSC are not always better than LCCs, it's just that LCCs do tend to be more messy in such situation as the options are usually a lot more limited (i.e. in the AirAsia X, they put you on the Tokyo flight, but not like they have any service of their own to get you into Tokyo). Ultimately, that's what travel insurances are for anyway.
 
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gleb
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Re: Typhoon Jebi hits Japan, KIX currently closed and underwater

Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:34 am

OSAKA – A runway at Kansai International Airport reopened Friday, after being closed for 10 days due to flooding caused by a powerful typhoon earlier this month.

The major international hub, which sits on a man-made island in Osaka Bay, plans to resume around 40 domestic and 80 international flight services, equivalent to around 30 percent of the airports’s pre-typhoon traffic.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/ ... 5uLlVVl8kI

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