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DLHAM
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Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Sun Sep 02, 2018 9:25 pm

Now its the time of the year again where Airlines announce new TATL routes.
Hamburg, a city with a population of more than 1.8 million (larger than - for example - Barcelona, Munich, Milan, Prague, Brussels, Stockholm, Amsterdam etc), being the largest EU city which is not a capital, still has only one Daily flight to the US, which even is seasonal currently.

In one of all those recent years - UA/CO serves HAM since 2005 - I would have expected at least one additional flight to North America, the market is definitely large enough to support it.

Hamburg is very strong economically, its one of the 10 richtest cities in Europe (GDP per Capita). In a ranking of the cities with the most multi millionaires Hamburg is number 22 worldwide. Many of the rich people here own second houses in Florida by the way. Its the third largest aviation industry location with lots of other other international non aviation business. It has the 18th largest seaport in the world, number two in europe. Also the number of cruise ships is rising rapidly. Tourist numbers are rising year over year, also international tourists.

The passenger numbers of HAM rose from 10,6 million in 2005 to 17,6 million in 2017, which is almost only local traffic due to no Airline operating a Hub in Hamburg.

55.000 passengers on HAM-MIA in 2017, thats 5 weekly full Eurowings A330s considering a 200% increase of local traffic due to the nonstop flight offered and some feed in HAM.

37.500 passengers on HAM-LAX in 2017, thats 4 weekly full Eurowings A330s considering a 225% increase of local traffic and some feed in HAM.

57.000 passengers on HAM-JFK in 2017, despite the Nonstop to EWR, with a 175% increase of local traffic due to the nonstop flight offered and no feed it would be an 85% average load factor throughout the year on a Primera Air 737MAX9.

28.100 passengers on HAM-ORD in 2017, with a 200% increase of local traffic due to the nonstop flight offered and an additional 40% of transfer passengers flying beyond the ORD Hub, thats a 90% average load factor on a daily American 787-8 from April to October, and a 88% average load factor with 5 weekly flights (4 in Jan/Feb) from November to March.

28.500 passengers on HAM-YYZ in 2017, with a 200% increase of local traffic plus 25% transfer passengers flying beyond YYZ and some little feed in HAM you have a 89% average load factor on a 5 weekly Air Canada Rouge 767-300 from April to October (102% from June to September) and an average 74% if you fly 3 weekly through the winter, from November to March.

All calculations also take into account that Airline XY only attracts 25% of the local traffic amount in 2017 with the new flight, the other 75% flying with other Airlines.

Thats just a few examples to show that there is traffic volume existent. Lufthansa is flying masses of passengers to Frankfurt and Munich each on hourly A321s. Without Hamburg and Berlin I am sure that Lufthansa and a row of other Star Alliance Airlines would have a hard time in FRA and MUC.

After American just announced Berlin I wonder why they did not choose HAM instead. They face pretty much competition in Berlin, hunting for Yields against United, Delta, now Primera. Hamburg even had more passengers to Philadelphia last year than Berlin (6.200 vs 5.800). Primera Air, I just mentioned them, I wonder why they dont use the advantage to be one of the first, with only UA competition to Newark, even with a big untapped Potential left (JFK) on that Relation with competition.
Also Eurowings could do good Business here to MIA, JFK, LAX, SFO. Maybe Lufthansa is afraid to loose too many Pax? Same for Eurowings at Berlin.

Its hard to imagine that in the 80s/90s there were several daily flights from HAM to the US on Delta, Pan Am, American, LTU, later Lufthansa etc, with only like 6 million annual passengers at Hamburg Airport. Now with close to 18 million we are conting one, of a half, being a seasonal.
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arcticcruiser
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Sun Sep 02, 2018 9:38 pm

Plenty of one-stop options to wherever in USA. If “Hamburgers” need to connect anyway, perhaps they prefer to do it on the east side (or middle) of the Atlantic, rather than on the west side.
 
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DLHAM
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:17 pm

arcticcruiser wrote:
Plenty of one-stop options to wherever in USA. If “Hamburgers” need to connect anyway, perhaps they prefer to do it on the east side (or middle) of the Atlantic, rather than on the west side.


Thats for sure, plently of options, like everywhere else. Still Airlines add new nonstop flights. Some markets have a "critical" mass of passenger numbers, I am pretty sure that on many routes this mass is reality from Hamburg.

Yes, conneting in the middle of the Atlantic is popular, Icelandair seems pretty lucky with the "Hamburgers", around 40% of the passeners connect to the US. I wonder how long until WOW Air shows up.

After United downgraded to a seasonal service half the city was covered with Icelandair advertisements for US flights with a wonderful stopover, and Aer Lingus advertisements, advertising the fastest Hamburg to USA connections with the pre clearance in Dublin.
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:58 pm

Here we go with another one of these threads. Why does city XXX not have service to ZZZ?

Obviously boils down to tact that if there was money to be made, the airlines would be there.

Its pretty clear that even United the current operator feels it can only manage seasonal 757 in the market. Certainly, if they felt the market could sustain longer schedule period, or larger equipment they would do it.
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DLHAM
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:09 pm

Next year the flight is back on a 767. LF are north 90%. CO and UA operated that flight yearround for 12 years. I would also love to know what changed. The numerous technical delays and cancellations that came with the 767 didnt help for sure. At one point there were three 767 in HAM at one time, two of them AOG.
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LAXintl
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:33 pm

As always don't mistake high load factors for profits.

As stated above if UA or anyone else believed they could make money on the route, they would be there doing it.
Even EK dropped it's 6th freedom route via HAM.
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:46 pm

DLHAM wrote:
Next year the flight is back on a 767. LF are north 90%. CO and UA operated that flight yearround for 12 years. I would also love to know what changed. The numerous technical delays and cancellations that came with the 767 didnt help for sure. At one point there were three 767 in HAM at one time, two of them AOG.


Wait, how is it already known that HAM-EWR is back to a 763 next year? Has a press release been offered?
 
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:49 pm

LAXintl wrote:
As always don't mistake high load factors for profits.

As stated above if UA or anyone else believed they could make money on the route, they would be there doing it.
Even EK dropped it's 6th freedom route via HAM.


Thats true. The Emirates JFK flight was already 10 years ago. The route developed good, but transit passengers limited the availability, which was especially bad on the DXB-HAM sector which has a very high demand.
Also, the press wrote about Emirates intentions to get traffic rights to Berlin and Stuttgart, but the Germans wont even talk about it as long as Emirates harms Lufthansa by flying HAM-JFK (a route, which was not served by LH).
Today, Emirates still has no rights to fly to Berlin and Stuttgart. Also Qatar Airways wants to fly to Düsseldorf and Hamburg, no traffic rights. Hainan wants to fly to Hamburg .. No traffic rights.
Protectionist, good for LH, good for FRA and MUC. Not as good for the rest.
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:53 pm

Judge1310 wrote:
DLHAM wrote:
Next year the flight is back on a 767. LF are north 90%. CO and UA operated that flight yearround for 12 years. I would also love to know what changed. The numerous technical delays and cancellations that came with the 767 didnt help for sure. At one point there were three 767 in HAM at one time, two of them AOG.


Wait, how is it already known that HAM-EWR is back to a 763 next year? Has a press release been offered?


No press release, but its been a 767 since flights from May '19 are bookable.

I have a slight feeling that the 757 downgrade this year has to do with the 767 Polaris Upgrades. At least the 757 is much more reliable! On the other hand the 767 did great IMO, as they flew the -400 in high Summer 2016 the flights were packed.

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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:04 am

Admirable the conviction people hold for their cities, though let's be frank and not let that conviction be blinding.

If HAM and many other secondary markets were such a strong business case there would be a gang of airlines tripping over themselves to serve it.

But the reality is that the city supports a single seasonal US service.

Oh and on that S19 UA schedule, its likely merely a placeholder. The IATA S19 slot conference has not even taken place yet so longhaul schedules are far from firm at this stage.

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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:28 am

DLHAM wrote:
Now its the time of the year again where Airlines announce new TATL routes.
Hamburg, a city with a population of more than 1.8 million (larger than - for example - Barcelona, Munich, Milan, Prague, Brussels, Stockholm, Amsterdam etc), being the largest EU city which is not a capital, still has only one Daily flight to the US, which even is seasonal currently.
Most of those cities are either cruise ship terminals or Viking River Cruise stops. Brussels has a lot of govt traffic since it is NATO headquarters. Amsterdam is KLM's hub.
 
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:10 am

@DLHAM where are your stats for pax flows ex-HAM from?
 
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:40 am

Took the EWR-HAM United flight once on a 767-400. It was pretty full. Two years ago when I tried to take it again United made it seasonal and rebooked me on Lufthansa from DFW-FRA-HAM. Mostly all German airports have rail into their Hauptbahnhof station that would connect to an ICE train. Berlin to Hamburg is only a 45 min. ICE ride. Next time I go to Hamburg I'll just fly LH to FRA from DFW and take an ICE from the airport. I have to say one thing Hamburg is an easy airport to navigate in and out of.
 
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:03 am

It seems to be one of the Airliners.net articles of faith that, "if the route were profitable, airlines would fly it already!" By that logic, no airline would ever start a new route. And if anyone asks the question, they have to be smacked around with the catechism.

The OP provided a lot of numbers, numbers that do make the question an interesting one. HAM is a populous and wealthy market with very high O & D to have just one seasonal flight to the US, when smaller markets support more service. I would add, HAM used to have Northwest Orient in the 70's and 80's. It seems odd to me as well, article of faith or no article of faith. I'd guess Lufthansa would rather concentrate passengers at its hubs, and much of HAM's traffic probably originates on the HAM end, as it's not a tourist or government center, so less interest from US carriers.

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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:19 am

We have had this discussion before and it all has been said before. HAM is primarily a one stop market. Whether that single stop is FRA/MUC/AMS/CPH etc. or EWR/DXB(REK does not matter. It is a free market and the passengers have multiple choices and the carriers have that choice as well. If a route is not profitable it's not served and DXB would never be possible without connecting traffic
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:25 am

Hamburg is not a tourism destination for Americans like Berlin is. American carriers serve first and mostly American passengers.

Also HAM is not such a big market. In a way is like Berlin. Hamburg is geographically relatively isolated; the only additional traffic HAM can capture are cities like Kiel, Rostock, Lübeck or maybe Bremen or Hannover. That is quite a small catchment area after all. That is very different to MUC, FRA, DUS or CGN that have very densely populated regions around them.
 
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:36 am

HAM is close to so many large hubs. AMS, LHR, CPH, FRA, CDG and to be honest New York is probably the only destination in the US that creates enough OD traffic to be worthwile.

Connecting through a US hub would be a one stop connection as well, and HAM as plenty of those already. Apart from MIA I can see few destinations that could work.
 
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:00 am

mercure1 wrote:
Here we go with another one of these threads. Why does city XXX not have service to ZZZ?
Obviously boils down to tact that if there was money to be made, the airlines would be there.

^This.

Especially with $600 all-in walkup fares on EWR-HAM, currently.
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:01 am

Reykjavik would not be possible without connecting traffic as well, at least not daily and yearround.
The catchment of HAM is not that small, 6 million in the direct metropolitan area, 10 million people within 90min of driving. Even large parts of Denmark reachable in 2hours, making it even more. And there are masses of danish passengers from Hamburg.

Traffic numbers from Hamburg to the US, the "basic demand" to destinations in the US where is no nonstop service, is about the same as from Berlin. Some destinations have more passengers from Berlin (DTW, IAD, BOS ... ), some have more passengers from Hamburg (CLT, IAH/DTW, PHL ... ). All in all its about the same level.

Of course there is are more tourists to Berlin, on the other hand Hamburg has a larger catchment which has more money which should compensate that at least part of it. I am not asking why there are no 6 daily US flights, the question is why there are no two at least, which would definately be no overcapacity.
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:12 am

Matt6461 wrote:
@DLHAM where are your stats for pax flows ex-HAM from?


Hey, the "Statistisches Bundesamt", which means as much as federal office of statistics, offers all pax numbers from Germany for download. Passenger numbers of all flights from each airport (A to B and B to A) as well as total number of passengers from A to B via XXX (local demand).

https://www.destatis.de/DE/Publikationen/Thematisch/TransportVerkehr/Luftverkehr/Luftverkehr.html
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:48 am

freakyrat wrote:
Took the EWR-HAM United flight once on a 767-400. It was pretty full. Two years ago when I tried to take it again United made it seasonal and rebooked me on Lufthansa from DFW-FRA-HAM. Mostly all German airports have rail into their Hauptbahnhof station that would connect to an ICE train. Berlin to Hamburg is only a 45 min. ICE ride. Next time I go to Hamburg I'll just fly LH to FRA from DFW and take an ICE from the airport. I have to say one thing Hamburg is an easy airport to navigate in and out of.


Ummm, Hamburg Hbf to Berlin Hbf is most assuredly NOT 45 minutes.

And no, given the choice between a connection in FRA or MUC, versus a non-stop from HAM...I'd definitely take the HAM non-stop.
 
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:53 am

Judge1310 wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
Took the EWR-HAM United flight once on a 767-400. It was pretty full. Two years ago when I tried to take it again United made it seasonal and rebooked me on Lufthansa from DFW-FRA-HAM. Mostly all German airports have rail into their Hauptbahnhof station that would connect to an ICE train. Berlin to Hamburg is only a 45 min. ICE ride. Next time I go to Hamburg I'll just fly LH to FRA from DFW and take an ICE from the airport. I have to say one thing Hamburg is an easy airport to navigate in and out of.


Ummm, Hamburg Hbf to Berlin Hbf is most assuredly NOT 45 minutes.

And no, given the choice between a connection in FRA or MUC, versus a non-stop from HAM...I'd definitely take the HAM non-stop.


Berlin <-> Hamburg is around 95-105 minutes by ICE, depending on which exact train you take. As they opened the high speed upgrade they did it in 90 minutes which they advertised. But one little delay and you were not able to catch that up, there were no time buffers in the schedule.

Considering you have to take the train AND a Bus to Tegel from Mainline trains which is a pain its not really an option. Very few Hamburgers fly from Berlin and vv.
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:59 am

I flew JFK - HAM in 1986. PanAm 747 SP. I was in J. The plane was less than half full. And for an SP that was a miniscule load. Always wondered why they put an SP on that route, now I know.....
 
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:08 am

The argument that, if it would economical to offer them, there would be routes from and to Hamburg now, is strange to not us a harder word.
If all routes, that would be economical to fly, would be flown today, there would not be any need ever to discuss new routes. But airlines seem to find new routes and earn money on them all the time.

A look at Hamburg should tell everybody, that it is strange that a City that rich and economical powerful, with rich inhabitants, should not have better long haul connections.
The city of Hamburg has 1.83 million inhabitants. The metropolitan area of HH has 5.3 million similar to Rhine-Main with Frankfurt at 5.5 million. There are more big airports around and near Frankfurt than Hamburg. Hamburg as a state has a GDP per capita of EUR 64,957 and the highest purchasing power index in Germany slightly higher than Bavaria. Some people are talking about slow growth in Hamburg, as I found in an article in die Zeit from 2017. That is right when one looks at statistics from 2006, but when one digs up new statistics, the picture is rather different, with Hamburg one of the fast growing regions in Europe.

Some answers are historical, when Lufthansa decided on their main hub, Frankfurt came out on top and Hamburg was seriously reduced. When Lufthansa set up the second hub the choice was MUC
Second, Hamburg was for a while not the economical powerhouse it is today, but went through several downturns in different, at that time big industries for example shipbuilding.

For me the main answers today, are alliances and joint ventures. Those two seriously cut down on competition. I do not expect Lufthansa to set up a hub in HAM, but without the above I would expect more foreign carriers to offer direct flights to HAM. I think we will see direct flights to HAM from North America, when a new competitor would enter the market looking for under served routes.
Last edited by mjoelnir on Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:22 am

seahawk wrote:
HAM is close to so many large hubs. AMS, LHR, CPH, FRA, CDG and to be honest New York is probably the only destination in the US that creates enough OD traffic to be worthwile.

Connecting through a US hub would be a one stop connection as well, and HAM as plenty of those already. Apart from MIA I can see few destinations that could work.


HAM is not really close to the hubs you mention. Some of them are nearer to each other than HAM. If you look for example at CDG, FRA, AMS, LHR, BRU, DUS and CGN, they are all nearer to each other than near to Hamburg. The only hub near to HAM is CPH and that is at least 4 hours by car.
 
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:34 am

They are quick to reach by plane.
 
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:39 am

londonistan wrote:
I flew JFK - HAM in 1986. PanAm 747 SP. I was in J. The plane was less than half full. And for an SP that was a miniscule load. Always wondered why they put an SP on that route, now I know.....


Wow interesting! Pan Am in 1986 flew 5 weekly JFK-HAM on "A310/B-747" - says the schedule - and 2 weekly JFK-HAM-VIE on A310. I think they switched from A310 to B747 depending on demand or aircraft availability. Maybe there was no A310 available that day, or the 747SP was full the other way.
I know people who flew with PanAm 747-100s between HAM and JFK in the mid 80s and they say the planes were packed. At least until Lockerbie ...
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:35 pm

DLHAM wrote:
londonistan wrote:
I flew JFK - HAM in 1986. PanAm 747 SP. I was in J. The plane was less than half full. And for an SP that was a miniscule load. Always wondered why they put an SP on that route, now I know.....


Wow interesting! Pan Am in 1986 flew 5 weekly JFK-HAM on "A310/B-747" - says the schedule - and 2 weekly JFK-HAM-VIE on A310. I think they switched from A310 to B747 depending on demand or aircraft availability. Maybe there was no A310 available that day, or the 747SP was full the other way.
I know people who flew with PanAm 747-100s between HAM and JFK in the mid 80s and they say the planes were packed. At least until Lockerbie ...


Wow, even more interesting! I had no idea PanAm flew TATL with an A310 in those days..you live and learn.
 
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:37 pm

Hamburg is not such a busy airport. 17M PAX.

"Poor" and (hated in this forum) Berlin had 33M PAX, almost double the number of PAX of Hamburg.

Neither of them are hubs, so everything is local traffic.

IMO that says a lot about demand particularly from international tourists.
 
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:26 pm

londonistan wrote:
Wow, even more interesting! I had no idea PanAm flew TATL with an A310 in those days..you live and learn.


They started flying the A310 transatlantic in late 1985, even with the -200 model. They had to take a VERY northern route because there was only ETOPS 60 or 90 - not sure - these days which took at least one hour longer than on the 747. They had to have quite some blocked seats and even then often fuel stops were nessacary. Things improved when the first A310-300s arrived in 86 or 87 I'm not sure. After the takeover even Delta continued flying the A310s until 95 or 96.

SQC83 wrote:
Hamburg is not such a busy airport. 17M PAX.

"Poor" and (hated in this forum) Berlin had 33M PAX, almost double the number of PAX of Hamburg.

Neither of them are hubs, so everything is local traffic.

IMO that says a lot about demand particularly from international tourists.


I dont want to start a Berlin Hamburg war as I like Berlin and have many friends there. But a large procentual part of Berlins passengers is from ULCC traffic. And Hamburg is limited in growth as the Airport already operates at its current limit. But of course Berlin has more international tourists, what doesnt mean, that HAM cant have a second TATL flight.
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:39 pm

seahawk wrote:
They are quick to reach by plane.


That is a very different argument than you presented first. Every airport in Europe is quick to reach, what takes time is having to change flights at a hub. All the talk about point to point, but when one talks about why a rather big city does not have point to point connections, the answer is hubs.
 
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:54 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
seahawk wrote:
They are quick to reach by plane.


That is a very different argument than you presented first. Every airport in Europe is quick to reach, what takes time is having to change flights at a hub. All the talk about point to point, but when one talks about why a rather big city does not have point to point connections, the answer is hubs.


That is exactly the same argument. There is one destination that has enough OD traffic to work and that is New York, I would grant MIA a chance too but it low yielding. But apart from that no US destination has enough OD demand to work. And connecting via an US hub usually takes longer than connecting via the European hubs in the area.
 
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 4:21 pm

LH Chose between DUS and FRA and FRA became the winner. HAM was not in the race but they got the maintenance Center and CGN the HQ.
Now, I very much doubt that a daily flight to JFK would be feasible. Who wants to connect at JFK? I did a couple of times but staying on the TWA Network. That was OK DL served HAM ATL for a number of years and even that flight got axed , with all the connex opportunities and especially do Florida.

As I said before, HAM is a one stop market, the majority of destinations can be served with one stop, may be twise for smaller Destination cities.
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 4:38 pm

DLHAM wrote:
Matt6461 wrote:
@DLHAM where are your stats for pax flows ex-HAM from?


Hey, the "Statistisches Bundesamt", which means as much as federal office of statistics, offers all pax numbers from Germany for download. Passenger numbers of all flights from each airport (A to B and B to A) as well as total number of passengers from A to B via XXX (local demand).

https://www.destatis.de/DE/Publikationen/Thematisch/TransportVerkehr/Luftverkehr/Luftverkehr.html


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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:08 pm

seahawk wrote:
That is exactly the same argument. There is one destination that has enough OD traffic to work and that is New York, I would grant MIA a chance too but it low yielding. But apart from that no US destination has enough OD demand to work.


And how much O&D demand is necesary to make things work? Berlin to PHL had a unbelievable 376 passengers oneway in July 2017, and American ist starting a flight. For comparison: Hamburg to Chicago had 1.488 passengers oneway, in July 2017. How can a route with a basic demand of 376 passengers work, but a route with 1.488 not? Supply creates demand ... And even if there were only 376 passengers the whole month it can work with a nonstop.

In July 2005 there were 568 people traveling to Atlanta from DUS, from one year later on Delta operated a sucessful flight between the cities (2.714 passengers in July 2006).

In July 2004 there were 962 passengers traveling from Hamburg to Newark, one year later there was a nonstop flight by Continental and there were 3.605 passengers in July 2005.

Just two examples.

PanHAM wrote:
Now, I very much doubt that a daily flight to JFK would be feasible. Who wants to connect at JFK? I did a couple of times but staying on the TWA Network. That was OK DL served HAM ATL for a number of years and even that flight got axed , with all the connex opportunities and especially do Florida.


I am pretty sure that a JFK flight would even work without much transfer traffic, the raw numbers are more than good. UA also has around 40% transfer passengers on HAM-EWR, although connecting at EWR is a pain too. But much better than hanging around in AMS for hours in the early morning after a redeye flight from the US on the return journey IMO.
By the way Delta served HAM for 11 years with a two year break in the 90s. A big part of the time with two daily flights, plus another Lufthansa flight to Newark, also for years. Delta left Hamburg, along with a number of other EU cities, after SkyTeam was founded.

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londonistan
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:00 pm

DLHAM wrote:
londonistan wrote:
Wow, even more interesting! I had no idea PanAm flew TATL with an A310 in those days..you live and learn.


They started flying the A310 transatlantic in late 1985, even with the -200 model. They had to take a VERY northern route because there was only ETOPS 60 or 90 - not sure - these days which took at least one hour longer than on the 747. They had to have quite some blocked seats and even then often fuel stops were nessacary. Things improved when the first A310-300s arrived in 86 or 87 I'm not sure. After the takeover even Delta continued flying the A310s until 95 or 96.

SQC83 wrote:
Hamburg is not such a busy airport. 17M PAX.

"Poor" and (hated in this forum) Berlin had 33M PAX, almost double the number of PAX of Hamburg.

Neither of them are hubs, so everything is local traffic.

IMO that says a lot about demand particularly from international tourists.


I dont want to start a Berlin Hamburg war as I like Berlin and have many friends there. But a large procentual part of Berlins passengers is from ULCC traffic. And Hamburg is limited in growth as the Airport already operates at its current limit. But of course Berlin has more international tourists, what doesnt mean, that HAM cant have a second TATL flight.

Thank you so much DHAM, nice to get some proper info.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:25 pm

Judge1310 wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
Took the EWR-HAM United flight once on a 767-400. It was pretty full. Two years ago when I tried to take it again United made it seasonal and rebooked me on Lufthansa from DFW-FRA-HAM. Mostly all German airports have rail into their Hauptbahnhof station that would connect to an ICE train. Berlin to Hamburg is only a 45 min. ICE ride. Next time I go to Hamburg I'll just fly LH to FRA from DFW and take an ICE from the airport. I have to say one thing Hamburg is an easy airport to navigate in and out of.


Ummm, Hamburg Hbf to Berlin Hbf is most assuredly NOT 45 minutes.

And no, given the choice between a connection in FRA or MUC, versus a non-stop from HAM...I'd definitely take the HAM non-stop.


My mistake it's 1 hr and 54 minutes (ICE) according to the DB App, however I do not know if they are still rerouting trains as they were working on the direct line in May of last year. I would still much prefer to fly out of HAM than FRA.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:34 pm

DLHAM wrote:
Judge1310 wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
Took the EWR-HAM United flight once on a 767-400. It was pretty full. Two years ago when I tried to take it again United made it seasonal and rebooked me on Lufthansa from DFW-FRA-HAM. Mostly all German airports have rail into their Hauptbahnhof station that would connect to an ICE train. Berlin to Hamburg is only a 45 min. ICE ride. Next time I go to Hamburg I'll just fly LH to FRA from DFW and take an ICE from the airport. I have to say one thing Hamburg is an easy airport to navigate in and out of.


Ummm, Hamburg Hbf to Berlin Hbf is most assuredly NOT 45 minutes.

And no, given the choice between a connection in FRA or MUC, versus a non-stop from HAM...I'd definitely take the HAM non-stop.


Berlin <-> Hamburg is around 95-105 minutes by ICE, depending on which exact train you take. As they opened the high speed upgrade they did it in 90 minutes which they advertised. But one little delay and you were not able to catch that up, there were no time buffers in the schedule.

Considering you have to take the train AND a Bus to Tegel from Mainline trains which is a pain its not really an option. Very few Hamburgers fly from Berlin and vv.


Thank's for the info. Two years ago I was in Esenach for a sports event and took the ICE up to HAM with a connection in Leipzig came back thru Fulda. I do like the ICE and wish we could getr around the US in similar fashion. I also didn't mind driving in Germany but got lost leaving FRA to Eisenach but drove back to FRA with no problems.
 
flybry
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:35 pm

mercure1 wrote:
Here we go with another one of these threads. Why does city XXX not have service to ZZZ?

Obviously boils down to tact that if there was money to be made, the airlines would be there.

Its pretty clear that even United the current operator feels it can only manage seasonal 757 in the market. Certainly, if they felt the market could sustain longer schedule period, or larger equipment they would do it.


Here we go with another one of those "here we go with another one of these threads" threads... smh!
 
KD5MDK
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Tue Sep 04, 2018 4:23 am

Why does ATH not have service to PHL? If there was money to be made, someone would have flown it last year.
 
factsonly
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:50 am

DLHAM wrote:

Thats just a few examples to show that there is traffic volume existent.



You forgot to mention that the German Statistics Office also reports that UA achieved a 77% loadfactor on EWR-HAM in 2017.

If the only USA-HAM route manages a low loadfactor at current TATL yields, it provides a clear indication why airlines are not opening new USA-HAM routes.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:51 am

factsonly wrote:
DLHAM wrote:

Thats just a few examples to show that there is traffic volume existent.



You forgot to mention that the German Statistics Office also reports that UA achieved a 77% loadfactor on EWR-HAM in 2017.

If the only USA-HAM route manages a low loadfactor at current TATL yields, it provides a clear indication why airlines are not opening new USA-HAM routes.

That's not necessarily the most representative route. UA tried EWR-STR a few years back with a 757 and only got ~70% loadfactor while DL has been flying ATL-STR with a 767 (recently upgauged to -400) at 90%+ loadfactors continously. I think DL could make ATL-HAM work, if only to bring tourists to Florida.

On the topic of long-haul flights to HAM in general, chinese airlines have repeatedly attempted to serve it but always ran into regulatory issues - the bilateral doesn't allow more flights. EK has been doing very well there. Iran Air also serves Hamburg.
 
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:20 am

Will be interesting to see if Primera ever announces HAM-NYC/BOS.
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DLHAM
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:50 am

factsonly wrote:
DLHAM wrote:

Thats just a few examples to show that there is traffic volume existent.



You forgot to mention that the German Statistics Office also reports that UA achieved a 77% loadfactor on EWR-HAM in 2017.

If the only USA-HAM route manages a low loadfactor at current TATL yields, it provides a clear indication why airlines are not opening new USA-HAM routes.


The overall average load factor in both directions was 83,67%, if youre not counting that last flights in January, before the flight went seasonal, you land at 83,05% . Have you taken into account that in most of June, the whole July and most of August the shabby 3 class 763s with PMUA configuration and much less seats were operated to HAM? (Scaring away also Economy frequent travellers with the old, rundown 90s retro Economy class). This makes a difference 178 vs 209 seats (not counting seats blocked for Crew Rest).

(Jan 88%)
May 73%
Jun 78%
Jul 88%
Aug 92%
Sep 86%
Oct 81% (just a few flights)


One has to mention that there were five cancellations because of AOG in the second half of 2016 alone, not mentioning numerous delays. This is perfect to harm such a route, important frequent business travellers avoided this route.

This year, so far, the loadfactor is at 88/90%. This can be considered good.

Jesus I think if things worked like some want it to airports like HAM would not have flights longer than 3 hours at all.
And when new flights are announced those will calculate how the flight will fail. Same happened before CO came to HAM 13 years ago, also before EK came, 12 years ago.
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mjoelnir
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Tue Sep 04, 2018 11:57 am

Let us look at some numbers and facts.

Population, Hamburg 1,830,431, Seattle 724,745
Population metro, Hamburg 5,3 million, Seattle 3.7 million.
34 % of the population in Hamburg are foreigners, or their progeny.

Hamburg is the third biggest aviation cluster in the world, after Seattle and Toulouse. There are a lot of young high tech companies established, mainly in the area on the way to Lübeck. Hamburg has the highest rate of new emerging companies in Germany (2017).
Hamburg has one of the biggest harbours in the world, #15 worldwide, #2 in Europe. One of the few harbours operating year round, every day every hour including service to ships. You can get your screw changed in a dry dock on Christmas day. Hamburg is also a big inland port, well connected to the rivers and channels of the European inland waterways. The industry in the harbour still includes shipbuilding, but mainly service and repairs for ships. There is oil refining. Refining of precious metals. Cruise ships. A list of the wares distributed through Hamburg in Europe is to long to bring here.
Hamburg is the media center of Germany. 70.000 employed.
Hamburg is as a culture center in Germany, second only to Berlin.
Tourism, over 6 million visitors a year, with about 14 million overnights last year. #11 as a European city destination. The city in Germany with the highest number of 5 star hotels.
Health, Hamburg is a center for health industry, 54 hospitals including the Bernhard-Nocht-Institut für Tropenmedizin, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf and Asklepios Kliniken Hamburg.
Hamburg has a rich population, as a state the highest purchasing power per person of the German states in front of Bavaria.

One has to consider the above, before one declares it a natural occurrence HAM being in the backwaters in regards to international connections. The main point for me is again the system of alliances and joint ventures cutting out competition between routes. Until they arrived, HAM had quite a few direct long haul connections. Now USA airlines will not compete with their European partners by opening competing P2P routes. A change will only occur with the entrance of a new competitor in the market.
 
AbigailWT
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Tue Sep 04, 2018 1:47 pm

You are comparing Hamburg's population with a land area of 755 km² against the population and land areas of Barcelona (101.9 km²), Munich (310.4 km²), Milan (181.8 km²), Brussels (161.4 km²) and now apparently Seattle (217 km²) is being thrown in the mix. Obviously this isn't a fair comparison given these cities have population densities several orders of magnitude (read: profitability) above Hamburg. I'll leave demographics out of the picture. It's a (relatively) nothing town.
 
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:13 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Let us look at some numbers and facts.

Population, Hamburg 1,830,431, Seattle 724,745
Population metro, Hamburg 5,3 million, Seattle 3.7 million.
34 % of the population in Hamburg are foreigners, or their progeny.

Hamburg is the third biggest aviation cluster in the world, after Seattle and Toulouse. There are a lot of young high tech companies established, mainly in the area on the way to Lübeck. Hamburg has the highest rate of new emerging companies in Germany (2017).
Hamburg has one of the biggest harbours in the world, #15 worldwide, #2 in Europe. One of the few harbours operating year round, every day every hour including service to ships. You can get your screw changed in a dry dock on Christmas day. Hamburg is also a big inland port, well connected to the rivers and channels of the European inland waterways. The industry in the harbour still includes shipbuilding, but mainly service and repairs for ships. There is oil refining. Refining of precious metals. Cruise ships. A list of the wares distributed through Hamburg in Europe is to long to bring here.
Hamburg is the media center of Germany. 70.000 employed.
Hamburg is as a culture center in Germany, second only to Berlin.
Tourism, over 6 million visitors a year, with about 14 million overnights last year. #11 as a European city destination. The city in Germany with the highest number of 5 star hotels.
Health, Hamburg is a center for health industry, 54 hospitals including the Bernhard-Nocht-Institut für Tropenmedizin, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf and Asklepios Kliniken Hamburg.
Hamburg has a rich population, as a state the highest purchasing power per person of the German states in front of Bavaria.

One has to consider the above, before one declares it a natural occurrence HAM being in the backwaters in regards to international connections. The main point for me is again the system of alliances and joint ventures cutting out competition between routes. Until they arrived, HAM had quite a few direct long haul connections. Now USA airlines will not compete with their European partners by opening competing P2P routes. A change will only occur with the entrance of a new competitor in the market.



It isn't a backwater - you just foolishly cited a bunch a stats that don't appear relevant to TATL demand between Hamburg and the USA. Aviation cluster? Who cares? What TATL service does Charleston, Toulouse, or Mobile have? Biggest harbor? Who cares? Media center? Ever heard of the internet? Six million visitors a year, but how many are Americans? Do you think Americans are going to bypass Mayo Clinic, Cleveland Clinic, or Memorial Sloan-Kettering for health care in Hamburg?

You and the OP have been here long enough that you ought to know basic determinants of TATL demand. Show it.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:15 pm

AbigailWT wrote:
You are comparing Hamburg's population with a land area of 755 km² against the population and land areas of Barcelona (101.9 km²), Munich (310.4 km²), Milan (181.8 km²), Brussels (161.4 km²). Obviously this isn't a fair comparison given these cities have population densities several orders of magnitude (read: profitability) above Hamburg. It's a (relatively) nothing town.


So what? Can you show a statistical correlation between smaller city area and higher profitability? And when you start comparing cities and metropolregions in North America with Hamburg, you will find still lower densities without a degraded profitability.
 
Flighty
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:28 pm

DCA-ROCguy wrote:
It seems to be one of the Airliners.net articles of faith that, "if the route were profitable, airlines would fly it already!" By that logic, no airline would ever start a new route. And if anyone asks the question, they have to be smacked around with the catechism.

The OP provided a lot of numbers, numbers that do make the question an interesting one. HAM is a populous and wealthy market with very high O & D to have just one seasonal flight to the US, when smaller markets support more service. I would add, HAM used to have Northwest Orient in the 70's and 80's. It seems odd to me as well, article of faith or no article of faith. I'd guess Lufthansa would rather concentrate passengers at its hubs, and much of HAM's traffic probably originates on the HAM end, as it's not a tourist or government center, so less interest from US carriers.

Jim


It's not only faith. There is a progression that routes have. Is the only flight a 757? Okay, normally that proves that even a 767 won't work.

The fact that UA is going seasonal is a big deal. It means Hamburg is not very strong, particularly as a business market (which is the primary role of the US4 - business). And UA is in Star! HAM probably does well in the summer. AA could easily have added it, if not for the apparent weakness of AA in Germany. Delta would also offer flights to HAM if the data showed that HAM is a strong enough market. They know about Hamburg; it is on their map. This is a great question but I think we have good info regarding the answer. The fact that AA and DL did not launch it is informative. The fact it went seasonal for UA at EWR says it all really.
 
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DLHAM
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Re: Hamburg - just one US flight satisfying the demand?

Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:37 pm

AbigailWT wrote:
You are comparing Hamburg's population with a land area of 755 km² against the population and land areas of Barcelona (101.9 km²), Munich (310.4 km²), Milan (181.8 km²), Brussels (161.4 km²) and now apparently Seattle (217 km²) is being thrown in the mix. Obviously this isn't a fair comparison given these cities have population densities several orders of magnitude (read: profitability) above Hamburg. I'll leave demographics out of the picture. It's a (relatively) nothing town.


What does Population density has to do with potential passenger demand? I am pretty sure that Hamburgers living in the southernmost suburbs 16 miles away from the Airport will use the Airport anyway to fly. Its not that Hamburg is as large as a small country. Yes Hamburg is very large compared to the population. But people have cars, there are Taxis, suburban trains, subways, buses etc to get around and also to the Airport.
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