Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
TWFlyGuy
Posts: 427
Joined: Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:10 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:40 pm

lavalampluva wrote:
TheLion wrote:
enilria wrote:
You would hope so, but probably not.


I’d disagree here because the aim of the subsidy is to support the service. It’d be very poor negotiation to provide subsidy without service.

You’d expect that the subsidy be conditional for the maintenance of service according to the terms agreed (seasonal, year-round, 2-year minimum etc).

So in this instance the reason for the subsidy was so CLE or what ever city could say "We have nonstop flights to Iceland"? Seems like a waste of money to me. Chances are the airline will cancel service once it started costing them $$$$.


That's pretty much always the case. There was a podcast I listened to recently from KC area where they interviewed Justin Meyer from MCI and he talked about how long it took and the work involved in getting the service they have. Really good listen. Podcast is called coastless. Anyway, the hope for many of these airports is that they can lure an Icelandair or WOW and get enough traffic to justify year round. Maybe even for a few businesses who send people to Europe year round, get them to fly on them based on KEF being an easier connection...and maybe put some wins together. Even for CLE which had the CO hub with TATL service, they have to re-prove themselves. It's a tough row to hoe but this is the payoff and while it's seasonal on a second tier carrier to some degree, it's in many cases the most they can do.
 
User avatar
SRQKEF
Posts: 1950
Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2011 7:10 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:56 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I suspect that this is a case of CLE going seasonal on both, and it isn't a surprise. FI might also be deploying aircraft to other carriers in the off-season. (I expect that a few 757s will be deployed to TACV with maintenance on others scheduled in winter.) Remember, all of the passenger 757s, and 3 of the 4 767s, are fully owned/paid off by Icelandair, meaning that there can be spare winter capacity with them and maintenance done. (The MAX 8s are mostly leased under sale-leasebacks.)

One thing I can't find is: what are the 767 routes? A lot of shuffling is going around with the 752s, 753s, and 7M8s.


The last time I checked these were the 767 routes for next summer, fairly similar to this year:

AMS
CDG
LHR
BOS
JFK
IAD
SFO

With semi-regular appearances at other airports in the system such as YYZ, SEA, FRA, MUC, CPH etc. This is obviously subject to change, but routes that I'd expect to be 100% 767s are AMS, CDG, LHR and BOS (and obviously SFO). I'm also fairly confident JFK will stay a 767 but it has seen the occasional 757 this summer though.
Nothing compares to taking off in an empty 757 with full thrust!
 
Jshank83
Posts: 3565
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:58 pm

enilria wrote:
enilria wrote:
plinth857 wrote:
Do these decisions affect the $500,000 per year each carrier gets from the airport/city at all?

You would hope so, but probably not.


Looking at the WOW website:
For sale in Winter: STL, DTW, EWR, BWI, PIT, BOS, ORD, LAX, JFK, SFO
Not for sale in Winter and no resumption date: CVG, CLE, DFW

1) Does this mean the bank in KEF that required flights depart the USA at Midnight is gone for now?
2) Where are they hiding 2 planes for the Winter this just freed up? Maintenance?


I know STL is a RON over winter, it isn't over summer. It also flies 6 1/2 hours earlier on the return

Right now it is
KEF-STL 17:20-19:40
STL-KEF 22:55-10:40

Winter
KEF-STL16:40-18:05
STL-KEF 16:10-4:30

Not loving the 4:30 am (10:30 pm STL time) arrival but beggars can't be choosers. I guess if you are going onto Europe it gets you in there earlier.
 
User avatar
klm617
Posts: 5103
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:22 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
ILNFlyer wrote:

Find a warmer clime to fly to in winter.


You're assuming they rely on Iceland point of sale? I wouldn't - it's cheap 1-stop to Europe. I'm not confident there's enough ULCC 1-stop demand out of CLE at any profitable price in winter. As KLM617 noted - maybe enough for 1 carrier but not 2.



To be fair, CLE hasn't even had TATL international service for almost a decade and then scored two Iceland carriers. It's pretty impressive that both carriers are running 9x/weekly to KEF(!) until late October, subsidy or not.

Also, FI is not taking a long winter hiatus. They'll be back at the beginning of Spring Break unlike MCI which isn't coming back until around Mother's Day.

I'd like to see FI take the KEF route from WW and then bring a carrier in that serves another destination before we decide how many carriers CLE can handle. Dosen't seem like a ridiculous notion.



I agree FI is the best carrier for CLE on this route or any route to Iceland. FI is a pretty stable carrier that isn't going any where were as WW could be gone at any time we just don't know what their longevity will be. Yes CLE could support 2 carriers the other best scenario would be a DY flight to LGW those two could pretty well exist without stepping on each others toes.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10274
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:54 pm

enilria wrote:
WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

izbtmnhd wrote:
I like enilria but he does like the flashy headline and theory, at times.

He implied when NK moved into PIT that PIT/CAK NK Ops was a signal by the airline they we're only at CLE because of F9. Of course, CAK NK's operation is now pretty much folded into CLE. With it being said, I bet it got eyeballs when it was posted for such a "mundane" item as a ULCC opening a new station.

Sure I like splashy headlines, but WW and FI have both suspended CLE. That's a 100% fact. Not sure what is questionable or clickbait-ish about that.

Not sure I followed your logic on NK.

On Feb 17, 2017 I said regarding NK's entry into PIT:
>This is also another wake up call for CLE. Either PIT is throwing a lot more financial support around, or CLE is really seen as a loser in the eyes of the airlines. I wonder if NK will stay in CLE with CAK and PIT? Seems like overkill. F9 is probably the only thing keeping them in CLE.

We now know definitely that PIT is throwing a lot more money around than CLE as a starting point. So that's definitely a wake up call. NK started PIT May/June 2017. So I said "F9 is probably the only thing keeping them in CLE" because NK now had CLE bracketed with CAK and PIT. In other words, if F9 weren't in CLE fares would be high in CLE and NK could serve the area with only CAK and PIT, but with low fares in CLE thanks to F9 it forced NK to stay in CLE to defend against F9. Something had to give. Because they couldn't shrink CLE, they shrank CAK instead. NK effectively moved CAK-LAS/FLL capacity out of the CAK/CLE area to PIT. NK also downscaled CLE-MSY service, although PIT didn't get MSY so that might just be weak performance in general.

Anyway, I don't see the glaring inaccuracy in any of those predictions. I said they would need to move capacity out of the Cleveland area because of PIT and they probably couldn't cut CLE because of F9. That's exactly what they did with CAK taking the loss.
 
izbtmnhd
Posts: 944
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:06 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:01 pm

enilria wrote:
enilria wrote:
WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

izbtmnhd wrote:
I like enilria but he does like the flashy headline and theory, at times.

He implied when NK moved into PIT that PIT/CAK NK Ops was a signal by the airline they we're only at CLE because of F9. Of course, CAK NK's operation is now pretty much folded into CLE. With it being said, I bet it got eyeballs when it was posted for such a "mundane" item as a ULCC opening a new station.

Sure I like splashy headlines, but WW and FI have both suspended CLE. That's a 100% fact. Not sure what is questionable or clickbait-ish about that.

Not sure I followed your logic on NK.

On Feb 17, 2017 I said regarding NK's entry into PIT:
>This is also another wake up call for CLE. Either PIT is throwing a lot more financial support around, or CLE is really seen as a loser in the eyes of the airlines. I wonder if NK will stay in CLE with CAK and PIT? Seems like overkill. F9 is probably the only thing keeping them in CLE.

We now know definitely that PIT is throwing a lot more money around than CLE as a starting point. So that's definitely a wake up call. NK started PIT May/June 2017. So I said "F9 is probably the only thing keeping them in CLE" because NK now had CLE bracketed with CAK and PIT. In other words, if F9 weren't in CLE fares would be high in CLE and NK could serve the area with only CAK and PIT, but with low fares in CLE thanks to F9 it forced NK to stay in CLE to defend against F9. Something had to give. Because they couldn't shrink CLE, they shrank CAK instead. NK effectively moved CAK-LAS/FLL capacity out of the CAK/CLE area to PIT. NK also downscaled CLE-MSY service, although PIT didn't get MSY so that might just be weak performance in general.

Anyway, I don't see the glaring inaccuracy in any of those predictions. I said they would need to move capacity out of the Cleveland area because of PIT and they probably couldn't cut CLE because of F9. That's exactly what they did with CAK taking the loss.


You didn’t post a thread that FI suspended MCI and WW suspended CVG and DFW.

BTW FI suspends MCO every summer. Never a headliner there.

As for NK..to answer your own question: NK stayed in CLE even though F9 shrunk a bit. ‘Nuff said.

It’s alright. I do appreciate what you do here!
Last edited by izbtmnhd on Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Lapplander800
Posts: 97
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2018 4:56 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:02 pm

SRQKEF wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
I suspect that this is a case of CLE going seasonal on both, and it isn't a surprise. FI might also be deploying aircraft to other carriers in the off-season. (I expect that a few 757s will be deployed to TACV with maintenance on others scheduled in winter.) Remember, all of the passenger 757s, and 3 of the 4 767s, are fully owned/paid off by Icelandair, meaning that there can be spare winter capacity with them and maintenance done. (The MAX 8s are mostly leased under sale-leasebacks.)

One thing I can't find is: what are the 767 routes? A lot of shuffling is going around with the 752s, 753s, and 7M8s.


The last time I checked these were the 767 routes for next summer, fairly similar to this year:

AMS
CDG
LHR
BOS
JFK
IAD
SFO

With semi-regular appearances at other airports in the system such as YYZ, SEA, FRA, MUC, CPH etc. This is obviously subject to change, but routes that I'd expect to be 100% 767s are AMS, CDG, LHR and BOS (and obviously SFO). I'm also fairly confident JFK will stay a 767 but it has seen the occasional 757 this summer though.


The 767 saw most action in S18 at BOS where it was pretty consistently double daily. Then SFO and an occasional appearance at ORD and Toronto. LHR, AMS, ZHR on the other end while the (now 2) 300s were commonly at MUC, FRA, Toronto (i love Canadian airport codes), JFK and EWR.
 
axiom
Posts: 901
Joined: Mon Aug 10, 2015 10:39 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:09 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
enilria wrote:
enilria wrote:
WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

izbtmnhd wrote:
I like enilria but he does like the flashy headline and theory, at times.

He implied when NK moved into PIT that PIT/CAK NK Ops was a signal by the airline they we're only at CLE because of F9. Of course, CAK NK's operation is now pretty much folded into CLE. With it being said, I bet it got eyeballs when it was posted for such a "mundane" item as a ULCC opening a new station.

Sure I like splashy headlines, but WW and FI have both suspended CLE. That's a 100% fact. Not sure what is questionable or clickbait-ish about that.

Not sure I followed your logic on NK.

On Feb 17, 2017 I said regarding NK's entry into PIT:
>This is also another wake up call for CLE. Either PIT is throwing a lot more financial support around, or CLE is really seen as a loser in the eyes of the airlines. I wonder if NK will stay in CLE with CAK and PIT? Seems like overkill. F9 is probably the only thing keeping them in CLE.

We now know definitely that PIT is throwing a lot more money around than CLE as a starting point. So that's definitely a wake up call. NK started PIT May/June 2017. So I said "F9 is probably the only thing keeping them in CLE" because NK now had CLE bracketed with CAK and PIT. In other words, if F9 weren't in CLE fares would be high in CLE and NK could serve the area with only CAK and PIT, but with low fares in CLE thanks to F9 it forced NK to stay in CLE to defend against F9. Something had to give. Because they couldn't shrink CLE, they shrank CAK instead. NK effectively moved CAK-LAS/FLL capacity out of the CAK/CLE area to PIT. NK also downscaled CLE-MSY service, although PIT didn't get MSY so that might just be weak performance in general.

Anyway, I don't see the glaring inaccuracy in any of those predictions. I said they would need to move capacity out of the Cleveland area because of PIT and they probably couldn't cut CLE because of F9. That's exactly what they did with CAK taking the loss.


You didn’t post a thread that FI suspended MCI and WW suspended CVG and DFW.

BTW FI suspends MCO every summer. Never a headliner there.

As for NK..to answer your own question: NK stayed in CLE even though F9 shrunk a bit. ‘Nuff said.

It’s alright. I do appreciate what you do here!


Suspension =\= seasonality

There is a difference between announcing and serving a market seasonally, and suspending a market for a period due to poor performance. One implies a greater degree of intent.

The key point is that CLE-KEF is saturated, and can't sustain this market year round. What is the argument here? Do you really think people have a bone to pick with CLE?

There are also other dynamics at play here, especially at FI, which is looking at an internal restructuring with network consequences. This wave of North America-Iceland expansion has been brutal.
 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10274
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:12 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
You didn’t post a thread that FI suspended MCI and WW suspended CVG and DFW.

It’s alright. I do appreciate what you do here!

The only reason I did not post that is that I was unaware of it until it was posted above and the article does not reference it (unless they have edited it to add that since I posted it). A source is required for a news thread to be allowed by mods. Having said that, I'd say CLE and DFW are more newsy because it's a story of competition and who won/lost. CVG is a less compelling story as there was no story of Hatfields vs McCoys.
 
izbtmnhd
Posts: 944
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:06 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:16 pm

axiom wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
enilria wrote:

Sure I like splashy headlines, but WW and FI have both suspended CLE. That's a 100% fact. Not sure what is questionable or clickbait-ish about that.

Not sure I followed your logic on NK.

On Feb 17, 2017 I said regarding NK's entry into PIT:
>This is also another wake up call for CLE. Either PIT is throwing a lot more financial support around, or CLE is really seen as a loser in the eyes of the airlines. I wonder if NK will stay in CLE with CAK and PIT? Seems like overkill. F9 is probably the only thing keeping them in CLE.

We now know definitely that PIT is throwing a lot more money around than CLE as a starting point. So that's definitely a wake up call. NK started PIT May/June 2017. So I said "F9 is probably the only thing keeping them in CLE" because NK now had CLE bracketed with CAK and PIT. In other words, if F9 weren't in CLE fares would be high in CLE and NK could serve the area with only CAK and PIT, but with low fares in CLE thanks to F9 it forced NK to stay in CLE to defend against F9. Something had to give. Because they couldn't shrink CLE, they shrank CAK instead. NK effectively moved CAK-LAS/FLL capacity out of the CAK/CLE area to PIT. NK also downscaled CLE-MSY service, although PIT didn't get MSY so that might just be weak performance in general.

Anyway, I don't see the glaring inaccuracy in any of those predictions. I said they would need to move capacity out of the Cleveland area because of PIT and they probably couldn't cut CLE because of F9. That's exactly what they did with CAK taking the loss.


You didn’t post a thread that FI suspended MCI and WW suspended CVG and DFW.

BTW FI suspends MCO every summer. Never a headliner there.

As for NK..to answer your own question: NK stayed in CLE even though F9 shrunk a bit. ‘Nuff said.

It’s alright. I do appreciate what you do here!


Suspension =\= seasonality

There is a difference between announcing and serving a market seasonally, and suspending a market for a period due to poor performance. One implies a greater degree of intent.

The key point is that CLE-KEF is saturated, and can't sustain this market year round. What is the argument here? Do you really think people have a bone to pick with CLE?

There are also other dynamics at play here, especially at FI, which is looking at an internal restructuring with network consequences. This wave of North America-Iceland expansion has been brutal.


Interpret what you want but:

So, you’re saying that MCI running for three months at 4x weekly is safer than CLE running for seven months at 5x weekly because FI didn’t like winter loads and announed cuts? OK, whatever. BTW, I want MCI to work too.

Not quite sure why you think anything is personal unless you are taking it this way. I like Enrilia’s posts and said as much.
 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10274
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:21 pm

axiom wrote:
There is a difference between announcing and serving a market seasonally, and suspending a market for a period due to poor performance. One implies a greater degree of intent.

Agreed...Here is the original announcement news coverage link:
https://www.cleveland.com/travel/index. ... _seco.html

There was no mention that either airline would be seasonal. In fact, the article talks about how the PIT-KEF service was announced as seasonal. It is not seasonal now. Was it ever? That seems like maybe the opposite situation where PIT was announced as seasonal and then made all year.

Anyway, bottom line, CLE wasn't going to support two airlines to Iceland. It's crazy, particularly in Winter. CLE has never even had non-stop Europe service in the Winter. Even CO was seasonal. CVG lost its service for the Winter and there weren't even two airlines. It's not about CLE, too much service just poisoned the well. I expect one of the carriers will be back next year. I'll be surprised if both unless they somehow run fewer seats than this year.
 
izbtmnhd
Posts: 944
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:06 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:33 pm

enilria wrote:
axiom wrote:
There is a difference between announcing and serving a market seasonally, and suspending a market for a period due to poor performance. One implies a greater degree of intent.

Agreed...Here is the original announcement news coverage link:
https://www.cleveland.com/travel/index. ... _seco.html

There was no mention that either airline would be seasonal. In fact, the article talks about how the PIT-KEF service was announced as seasonal. It is not seasonal now. Was it ever? That seems like maybe the opposite situation where PIT was announced as seasonal and then made all year.

Anyway, bottom line, CLE wasn't going to support two airlines to Iceland. It's crazy, particularly in Winter. CLE has never even had non-stop Europe service in the Winter. Even CO was seasonal. CVG lost its service for the Winter and there weren't even two airlines. It's not about CLE, too much service just poisoned the well. I expect one of the carriers will be back next year. I'll be surprised if both unless they somehow run fewer seats than this year.


Why would you not expect FI to come back? They said they will be back on March 22nd and the booking engine shows it as so. I don't get this need for vaguery when FI is being very clear.

As for me "taking it personally", as FlyPIT already said it's been discussed for almost a week in the Cleveland thread. You didn't break anything here nor was it really simultaneous. It is what it is.
Last edited by izbtmnhd on Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
Robert1010
Posts: 185
Joined: Wed Aug 31, 2016 4:23 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:35 pm

I do agree that the KEF market could be oversatured, but most were probably connections , I think it’s time for a TATL flt to a real mega hub , let’s face it , FI and WW only offer a fraction of connections compared to what LHR, AMS, CDG or FRA have !!!
 
kavok
Posts: 844
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:40 pm

The other thing to keep in mind is that, depending on which side of Cleveland you live, one of DTW or PIT is only about a 2.5 hour or less drive away in good conditions. So there is still winter access to these flights, albeit with a couple hour drive involved.

And given the market that both FI and WW target, a 2.5 hour drive is nothing to get cheap international airfare. Yes, business travelers won't make the drive, but most business travelers from CLE probably aren't taking WW or FI either.
 
izbtmnhd
Posts: 944
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:06 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:44 pm

kavok wrote:
The other thing to keep in mind is that, depending on which side of Cleveland you live, one of DTW or PIT is only about a 2.5 hour or less drive away in good conditions. So there is still winter access to these flights, albeit with a couple hour drive involved.

And given the market that both FI and WW target, a 2.5 hour drive is nothing to get cheap international airfare. Yes, business travelers won't make the drive, but most business travelers from CLE probably aren't taking WW or FI either.


FI isn't operating at PIT or DTW. Just WW means the biz demographic doing this drive is likely even worse than if they had FI.

Most likely they just take the majors to/from the East Coast.
 
lavalampluva
Posts: 1433
Joined: Tue Jun 24, 2014 7:33 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:08 pm

Robert1010 wrote:
I do agree that the KEF market could be oversatured, but most were probably connections , I think it’s time for a TATL flt to a real mega hub , let’s face it , FI and WW only offer a fraction of connections compared to what LHR, AMS, CDG or FRA have !!!

While I agree with you, isn't part of the marketing of FI (not sure on WW) is selling Iceland as a stop over to Europe? Since you're going to Europe, spend a couple days in Iceland.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
Indy
Posts: 4932
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:26 pm

The routes were announced a day apart and suspended at basically the same time. Do these airlines share an office? :-)
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
axiom
Posts: 901
Joined: Mon Aug 10, 2015 10:39 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:53 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
axiom wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:

You didn’t post a thread that FI suspended MCI and WW suspended CVG and DFW.

BTW FI suspends MCO every summer. Never a headliner there.

As for NK..to answer your own question: NK stayed in CLE even though F9 shrunk a bit. ‘Nuff said.

It’s alright. I do appreciate what you do here!


Suspension =\= seasonality

There is a difference between announcing and serving a market seasonally, and suspending a market for a period due to poor performance. One implies a greater degree of intent.

The key point is that CLE-KEF is saturated, and can't sustain this market year round. What is the argument here? Do you really think people have a bone to pick with CLE?

There are also other dynamics at play here, especially at FI, which is looking at an internal restructuring with network consequences. This wave of North America-Iceland expansion has been brutal.


Interpret what you want but:

So, you’re saying that MCI running for three months at 4x weekly is safer than CLE running for seven months at 5x weekly because FI didn’t like winter loads and announed cuts? OK, whatever. BTW, I want MCI to work too.

Not quite sure why you think anything is personal unless you are taking it this way. I like Enrilia’s posts and said as much.



No, I'm not saying that, at all. Where did I mention MCI or compare it to CLE? You have invited an argument here.

But yes, MCI may be safer. I don't know. I don't have information about the performance of either market, nor do you. I know CLE has a lot more capacity in the market, however.

I think folks get defensive about secondary markets. We want our places to thrive, perhaps. In any case, no, I do not have personal skin in this game.

I think MCI and CLE are distinct markets with distinct competitive dynamics, but they are both entangled in a scenario where 1) there is a glut of capacity to Iceland, which is seriously eroding the returns of FI and prompting a round of internal restructuring, and 2) there is an even larger glut of transatlantic capacity. In the first context, how and where FI responds is interesting: do they drop underperforming new markets and retrench to old ones? Invest in some new markets but not all? In the second context, do carriers find new value on serving secondary markets non stop, or does the industry collectively retreat to a more traditional hub strategy to control capacity? There are rhetorical questions, but they're the ones I am interested in. Not city X v city Y.
 
kavok
Posts: 844
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:57 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
kavok wrote:
The other thing to keep in mind is that, depending on which side of Cleveland you live, one of DTW or PIT is only about a 2.5 hour or less drive away in good conditions. So there is still winter access to these flights, albeit with a couple hour drive involved.

And given the market that both FI and WW target, a 2.5 hour drive is nothing to get cheap international airfare. Yes, business travelers won't make the drive, but most business travelers from CLE probably aren't taking WW or FI either.


FI isn't operating at PIT or DTW. Just WW means the biz demographic doing this drive is likely even worse than if they had FI.

Most likely they just take the majors to/from the East Coast.


My point is most business demographics from CLE aren't taking FI or WW in the summer either. Most of that demographic are still taking the majors to/from the east coast as you mentioned. The people who do tend to take FI/WW are much more leisure based, which drops significantly in the winter months. The point being, if the leisure traffic wants to use WW (which is basically FI lite), they can make the couple hour drive to PIT/DTW... or even further to YYZ.
 
izbtmnhd
Posts: 944
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:06 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:03 pm

axiom wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
axiom wrote:

Suspension =\= seasonality

There is a difference between announcing and serving a market seasonally, and suspending a market for a period due to poor performance. One implies a greater degree of intent.

The key point is that CLE-KEF is saturated, and can't sustain this market year round. What is the argument here? Do you really think people have a bone to pick with CLE?

There are also other dynamics at play here, especially at FI, which is looking at an internal restructuring with network consequences. This wave of North America-Iceland expansion has been brutal.


Interpret what you want but:

So, you’re saying that MCI running for three months at 4x weekly is safer than CLE running for seven months at 5x weekly because FI didn’t like winter loads and announed cuts? OK, whatever. BTW, I want MCI to work too.

Not quite sure why you think anything is personal unless you are taking it this way. I like Enrilia’s posts and said as much.



No, I'm not saying that, at all. Where did I mention MCI or compare it to CLE? You have invited an argument here.

But yes, MCI may be safer. I don't know. I don't have information about the performance of either market, nor do you. I know CLE has a lot more capacity in the market, however.

I think folks get defensive about secondary markets. We want our places to thrive, perhaps. In any case, no, I do not have personal skin in this game.

I think MCI and CLE are distinct markets with distinct competitive dynamics, but they are both entangled in a scenario where 1) there is a glut of capacity to Iceland, which is seriously eroding the returns of FI and prompting a round of internal restructuring, and 2) there is an even larger glut of transatlantic capacity. In the first context, how and where FI responds is interesting: do they drop underperforming new markets and retrench to old ones? Invest in some new markets but not all? In the second context, do carriers find new value on serving secondary markets non stop, or does the industry collectively retreat to a more traditional hub strategy to control capacity? There are rhetorical questions, but they're the ones I am interested in. Not city X v city Y.


You said that there was a difference between seasonal and suspension. Yet if a year-round route is reduced to seasonal it still means both are suspended and both are seasonal.

That's why I brought up MCI. If MCI is "safer" why does it have a shorter season with fewer weekly flights even after CLE was "suspended"? The logic, to me, dosen't work. I think both are safe but it takes time to build a customer base, especially in winter. Again, this has nothing to with MCI, I would love for MCI and CLE to both be daily year-round!
 
izbtmnhd
Posts: 944
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:06 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:05 pm

kavok wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
kavok wrote:
The other thing to keep in mind is that, depending on which side of Cleveland you live, one of DTW or PIT is only about a 2.5 hour or less drive away in good conditions. So there is still winter access to these flights, albeit with a couple hour drive involved.

And given the market that both FI and WW target, a 2.5 hour drive is nothing to get cheap international airfare. Yes, business travelers won't make the drive, but most business travelers from CLE probably aren't taking WW or FI either.


FI isn't operating at PIT or DTW. Just WW means the biz demographic doing this drive is likely even worse than if they had FI.

Most likely they just take the majors to/from the East Coast.


My point is most business demographics from CLE aren't taking FI or WW in the summer either. Most of that demographic are still taking the majors to/from the east coast as you mentioned. The people who do tend to take FI/WW are much more leisure based, which drops significantly in the winter months. The point being, if the leisure traffic wants to use WW (which is basically FI lite), they can make the couple hour drive to PIT/DTW... or even further to YYZ.


I agree. I'll only say the drive to YYZ can be brutal in the winter due to the Lake Effect on I-90 between Cleveland and Buffalo. TBH US Customs isn't a breeze anymore either. I just don't see many going up that way to catch a flight to KEF. DTW and PIT, sure.
 
stlgph
Posts: 11223
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:19 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:20 pm

I dunno, but if I'm in Cleveland in the winter, I most likely will want to travel someplace....where it isnt winter.

Not that difficult to figure this one.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
ncflyer
Posts: 1375
Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2000 7:03 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:13 pm

I gotta admit, when WOW expanded to CLE it was a real head scratcher to me. For a discount carrier, I'd gladly make the drive up the OH/PA turnpike, it's such a breeze-- zero risk of any traffic delays, outside of a major accident. There had to be cannibalization of PIT when CLE opened up. I think PIT airport was very smart when it advertised it's European flights in the CLE market a few years back, and I expect them to resume doing so once BA gets rolling.

When JI expanded to CLE, I thought this was a very smart move, to prevent Clevelanders from making that drive in the first place. JI is priced a little higher to WOW can still draw Clevelanders, especially from east side.
 
axiom
Posts: 901
Joined: Mon Aug 10, 2015 10:39 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:14 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
axiom wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:

Interpret what you want but:

So, you’re saying that MCI running for three months at 4x weekly is safer than CLE running for seven months at 5x weekly because FI didn’t like winter loads and announed cuts? OK, whatever. BTW, I want MCI to work too.

Not quite sure why you think anything is personal unless you are taking it this way. I like Enrilia’s posts and said as much.



No, I'm not saying that, at all. Where did I mention MCI or compare it to CLE? You have invited an argument here.

But yes, MCI may be safer. I don't know. I don't have information about the performance of either market, nor do you. I know CLE has a lot more capacity in the market, however.

I think folks get defensive about secondary markets. We want our places to thrive, perhaps. In any case, no, I do not have personal skin in this game.

I think MCI and CLE are distinct markets with distinct competitive dynamics, but they are both entangled in a scenario where 1) there is a glut of capacity to Iceland, which is seriously eroding the returns of FI and prompting a round of internal restructuring, and 2) there is an even larger glut of transatlantic capacity. In the first context, how and where FI responds is interesting: do they drop underperforming new markets and retrench to old ones? Invest in some new markets but not all? In the second context, do carriers find new value on serving secondary markets non stop, or does the industry collectively retreat to a more traditional hub strategy to control capacity? There are rhetorical questions, but they're the ones I am interested in. Not city X v city Y.


You said that there was a difference between seasonal and suspension. Yet if a year-round route is reduced to seasonal it still means both are suspended and both are seasonal.

That's why I brought up MCI. If MCI is "safer" why does it have a shorter season with fewer weekly flights even after CLE was "suspended"? The logic, to me, dosen't work. I think both are safe but it takes time to build a customer base, especially in winter. Again, this has nothing to with MCI, I would love for MCI and CLE to both be daily year-round!



Yes, if something is suspended, it is by definition sessional. But again, there is a difference. I don't know how to make this clearer. You are conflating similar but distinct terms.

And here comes MCI again. No one said it was safer.

There is nothing wrong with what you said about developing new markets - it's true. I think FI and WW have pursued aggressive growth strategies, and they're both hurting for it. The question is not really one of route maturation -- it's more about whether or not either carrier has the capacity to let a lot of new routes mature. I think that's what's remarkable about the suspension: FI is also saying that it isn't fighting through summer.

Hope it works out for all parties, too.
 
izbtmnhd
Posts: 944
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:06 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:18 pm

stlgph wrote:
I dunno, but if I'm in Cleveland in the winter, I most likely will want to travel someplace....where it isnt winter.

Not that difficult to figure this one.


Ha...good point!
 
mfe777
Posts: 285
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2009 5:35 am

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:20 pm

SRQKEF wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
Maybe WOW should try KEF-CMH in S19.

Btw what is happening with DFW-KEF? This has seen not only 2 but three carriers this summer (FI, WW and AA).


WW and AA are both seasonal while FI is year-round. I have no data to back it up but from what I've heard both FI and AA are doing good. I haven't heard anything about WW's performance on the route.


The FI and WW load factors on the Dallas route were posted in the DFW foreign carrier thread. For July (second full month in service), Icelandair was in the 80%+ range and WOW was over 90% load factors. FI will continue year round, and I expect to see WW back. I fly WOW DFW-KEF-DFW next week!
 
greenair727
Posts: 1468
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2007 6:27 am

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:42 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
stlgph wrote:
I dunno, but if I'm in Cleveland in the winter, I most likely will want to travel someplace....where it isnt winter.

Not that difficult to figure this one.


Ha...good point!


The world is bigger than Iceland. The business world does not stop because it is cold outside. CLE-Europe is a very big market (350 PDEW I think was stated earlier upthread). People on this route have to connect ANYWAY---whether its JFK, ATL, EWR, IAD, DTW---or KEF. And for many, KEF is preferable because they will clear immigration in CLE instead of on the coast and risk missing their connection to CLE. I think FI should do the opposite: Go daily (from 5x), rather than seasonal. That CLE-Europe/Europe-CLE market is still there---it will just instead just fly AA/BA/DL/KL/AF/UA/LH, etc..... and FI will just lose out.
Last edited by greenair727 on Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
IADCA
Posts: 2188
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:24 am

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:48 pm

enilria wrote:
enilria wrote:
plinth857 wrote:
Do these decisions affect the $500,000 per year each carrier gets from the airport/city at all?

You would hope so, but probably not.


Looking at the WOW website:
For sale in Winter: STL, DTW, EWR, BWI, PIT, BOS, ORD, LAX, JFK, SFO
Not for sale in Winter and no resumption date: CVG, CLE, DFW

1) Does this mean the bank in KEF that required flights depart the USA at Midnight is gone for now?
2) Where are they hiding 2 planes for the Winter this just freed up? Maintenance?


TWFlyGuy wrote:
Where do they reposition the aircraft to for the winter? Just curious. I'm not as familiar with their operation.


They often wet-lease out slack fleet to small carriers in warm-weather places for their tourist and VFR seasons. Take a look at the history of TF-FII, for example - has done short-term stints in Venezuela, Papua New Guinea, and Cabo Verde over the years. I think they also do perform a lot of MX over the winter as well.
 
User avatar
SRQKEF
Posts: 1950
Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2011 7:10 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:09 pm

Lapplander800 wrote:
SRQKEF wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
I suspect that this is a case of CLE going seasonal on both, and it isn't a surprise. FI might also be deploying aircraft to other carriers in the off-season. (I expect that a few 757s will be deployed to TACV with maintenance on others scheduled in winter.) Remember, all of the passenger 757s, and 3 of the 4 767s, are fully owned/paid off by Icelandair, meaning that there can be spare winter capacity with them and maintenance done. (The MAX 8s are mostly leased under sale-leasebacks.)

One thing I can't find is: what are the 767 routes? A lot of shuffling is going around with the 752s, 753s, and 7M8s.


The last time I checked these were the 767 routes for next summer, fairly similar to this year:

AMS
CDG
LHR
BOS
JFK
IAD
SFO

With semi-regular appearances at other airports in the system such as YYZ, SEA, FRA, MUC, CPH etc. This is obviously subject to change, but routes that I'd expect to be 100% 767s are AMS, CDG, LHR and BOS (and obviously SFO). I'm also fairly confident JFK will stay a 767 but it has seen the occasional 757 this summer though.


The 767 saw most action in S18 at BOS where it was pretty consistently double daily. Then SFO and an occasional appearance at ORD and Toronto. LHR, AMS, ZHR on the other end while the (now 2) 300s were commonly at MUC, FRA, Toronto (i love Canadian airport codes), JFK and EWR.


I totally forgot to mention ZRH in my list. Yes, the 767 has indeed been a summer regular there since S17.
Nothing compares to taking off in an empty 757 with full thrust!
 
nws2002
Posts: 918
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2008 11:04 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:12 pm

jmc1975 wrote:
What will Trego-Dugan do next?


Can they send the agents to TDY in CVG and fix the F9 and G4 mess they helped create there?
 
Lapplander800
Posts: 97
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2018 4:56 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:36 pm

axiom wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
axiom wrote:

Suspension =\= seasonality

There is a difference between announcing and serving a market seasonally, and suspending a market for a period due to poor performance. One implies a greater degree of intent.

The key point is that CLE-KEF is saturated, and can't sustain this market year round. What is the argument here? Do you really think people have a bone to pick with CLE?

There are also other dynamics at play here, especially at FI, which is looking at an internal restructuring with network consequences. This wave of North America-Iceland expansion has been brutal.


Interpret what you want but:

So, you’re saying that MCI running for three months at 4x weekly is safer than CLE running for seven months at 5x weekly because FI didn’t like winter loads and announed cuts? OK, whatever. BTW, I want MCI to work too.

Not quite sure why you think anything is personal unless you are taking it this way. I like Enrilia’s posts and said as much.



No, I'm not saying that, at all. Where did I mention MCI or compare it to CLE? You have invited an argument here.

But yes, MCI may be safer. I don't know. I don't have information about the performance of either market, nor do you. I know CLE has a lot more capacity in the market, however.

I think folks get defensive about secondary markets. We want our places to thrive, perhaps. In any case, no, I do not have personal skin in this game.

I think MCI and CLE are distinct markets with distinct competitive dynamics, but they are both entangled in a scenario where 1) there is a glut of capacity to Iceland, which is seriously eroding the returns of FI and prompting a round of internal restructuring, and 2) there is an even larger glut of transatlantic capacity. In the first context, how and where FI responds is interesting: do they drop underperforming new markets and retrench to old ones? Invest in some new markets but not all? In the second context, do carriers find new value on serving secondary markets non stop, or does the industry collectively retreat to a more traditional hub strategy to control capacity? There are rhetorical questions, but they're the ones I am interested in. Not city X v city Y.


There is some MCI data available;
https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/ ... stats.html

Also posted in the MCI/FI threaded;
http://www.flykci.com/newsroom/statisti ... tatistics/

Doesn't tell you yield... But LF is a part of the puzzle
 
User avatar
stl07
Posts: 2529
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 8:57 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:08 am

stlgph wrote:
I dunno, but if I'm in Cleveland in the winter, I most likely will want to travel someplace....where it isnt winter.

Not that difficult to figure this one.

Mic drop
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
Love how every "travel blogger" says they will never fly AA/Ethihad again and then says it again and again on subsequent flights.
 
User avatar
CLEguy
Posts: 349
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2016 10:49 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:22 am

enilria wrote:
Anyway, bottom line, CLE wasn't going to support two airlines to Iceland. It's crazy, particularly in Winter. CLE has never even had non-stop Europe service in the Winter. Even CO was seasonal. CVG lost its service for the Winter and there weren't even two airlines. It's not about CLE, too much service just poisoned the well. I expect one of the carriers will be back next year. I'll be surprised if both unless they somehow run fewer seats than this year.


This is not accurate. Continental operated year-round nonstop flights from CLE to LGW from 1999 to 2003. The route was downgraded to seasonal in 2003, and continued to operate seasonally until 2008. In 2009, CO moved the route to LHR. CO cancelled the route following the summer of 2009, due to the great recession.
 
User avatar
CLEguy
Posts: 349
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2016 10:49 pm

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:28 am

FA9295 wrote:
enilria wrote:
Interesting they both announced this simultaneously. :stirthepot:
Also interesting that both would leave. One wonders if both really come back. WW seems less sure.


Icelandair's service between Cleveland and Iceland will end Oct. 31 and start again on Mar. 22. Wow Air is suspending service from Cleveland in late October.

Wow Air sent this statement to Fox 8:

"WOW air will not operate this winter flights due to operational, logistic and commercial reasons. Wow air is happy with the Cleveland route last summer and is currently looking at the possibility of returning in 2019. Dates have not been confirmed. The last flight is scheduled on October 26 and no flights have been cancelled."

Icelandair also sent a statment to Fox 8:

"Icelandair flights from Cleveland Hopkins will be suspended for the winter starting November 2. Flights will resume in March 2019."


https://fox8.com/2018/09/05/two-iceland ... ng-winter/

This seems to be a common theme for these two carriers; making similar types of announcements simultaneously... Sucks for CLE, though... :?


The only real news here is that FI is canceling CLE flights in winter and starting them up again on Marcy 22, 2019.

https://www.cleveland.com/travel/index. ... _flig.html

WW never stated its intention to fly during winter, and has been ambiguous about its future in CLE all along. While FI did originally plan to fly the route in winter, four days/week, down from five in summer, and actually sold seats on the route (my flights after Christmas were just canceled on 9/5). Per the email I received from them yesterday the cancelation is "due to a reorganization of [their] route network."

https://www.cleveland.com/travel/index. ... le_be.html

I assume FI will return in spring and hope eventually fly year-round.
 
joeman
Posts: 869
Joined: Fri Apr 22, 2005 11:55 am

Re: WW and FI Both Suspend Cleveland

Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:46 am

Like many, I believe WW will bow out of the sudden CLE-KEV saturation and that FI is now changing the proposed winter service due to their recent negative financial publicity. For a long time I thought before US "2nd tier" TATL broke out that FI could maybe make a CLE-Europe work and I believe they will try to develop the route further as stated in media.

I think CLE fans get touchy due to repeated and publically/media supposed done deals that don't come to be like the CO intent to actually develop the CLE hub around 2007/2008, but the economy tanked and the airline drastically reducing CLE while the other 2 hub were reduced only slightly in comparison to daily route/flight cuts. And CO couldn't expand flights at CLE circa 1999 or upgrade the existing CLE-LGW 757 until a 2nd main runway was built..,,

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos