2. JetBlue is looking to get into the trans-Atlantic market. My suspicion is that they will run their flights out of Boston to the European continent (Dublin, London I suspect are the first places). That would give a prospective traveler from England/Ireland to Hawaii a one stop option in the same terminal at BOS to fly to Hawaii. Match the times right and it could be a record breaking run to London from Hawaii.
Coordinating the BOS-HNL flight times to connect with Europe departures & arrivals would result in poor connectivity for HA with its neighbor island flights at HNL; the flight would have to depart BOS around 1600 at the earliest which would result in an arrival in the neighborhood of 2100 local. Plus that's a really crummy arrival time if you're trying to capture O&D from Boston; no one wants to arrive at their hotel in Hawaii at midnight or later, feeling like it's 5 or 6 AM, and paying for an expensive extra hotel night.
Here's what could feed the route (BOS-HNL leg) based on Monday's B6 (includes codeshares) arrivals into Logan with 1 hr MCT: EWR, SYR, PVC, PIT, ACK, BWI, SDQ, STI, DCA, BHB, MVY, ACK, RKD, LGA, RDU, CLE, DTW, LEB.
You sure about that? The HA flight will depart BOS at 0800. DTW arrives at 0748. LGA arrives at 0741. DCA arrives at 0724. RDU arrives at 0753. CLE arrives at 0741. MVY arrives 0727. LEB arrives 0755. BHB and RKD don't connect without an overnight stay. The amount of feed from PVC/ACK/SDQ/STI would be negligible. The EWR & SYR connections work. PIT & BWI would probably be OK as they arrive between 0700 and 0710.
I also think its a shot across Southwest's bow as I think SWA is marketing to the East Coast for their Hawaii operations. They know they can't get good market share if all they are marketing to is the West Coast, which is saturated.
I don't think Southwest is marketing Hawaii to the East Coast at all
. They want to take what they view as their natural share of the West Coast-Hawaii market based on their existing market share in their large California stations; i.e. they have nearly 40% market share at SAN, 55% at SMF, and 73% at OAK, so they likely feel they can capture a commensurate share of traffic from those airports to Hawaii. Moreover, average fares to Hawaii tend to show an appreciable premium over routes of comparable stage length from those airports to markets in the contiguous U.S., so there's room to underprice the existing players.
Southwest has very few transcon flights which would be suitable for feeding Hawaii flights at the California gateways they've announced and exactly zero flights from California to BOS. Maybe HA is trying to send a message to WN, but if they are, they fundamentally misunderstand WN's plans for Hawaii and I can't believe they'd be that blind.
4. The pricing that they are proposing is somewhat attractive - sub $700 for economy, sub $2,000 for first class. Someone is thinking that if they come in big on discounts it might dissuade someone else, like American from Pittsburgh or Charlotte to get into the nonstop market to Hawaii.
These are promotional fares. I don't think HA wants to be in the business of 6-cent RASM in economy on long-haul.
Will the 330 from JFK be routed to HNL via BOS to pick up the passengers?
Almost certainly not, given that (1) there will already be passengers waiting in JFK and almost certainly only a handful of empty seats, if any, and (2) the flight crews probably can't do JFK-BOS-HNL and stay legal in terms of duty time limitations.