alan3
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No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:46 pm

Surprised to see that the only flight to Central or South America on any airline from any US city north of LAX is just CM from SFO-PTY.

SEA, PDX and SJC don't have a single flight to Central America or South America, and SFO just has that one flight to PTY and nothing to South America.

UA don't fly one single flight from SFO to anywhere south of Mexico...not even to the more-tourist traffic destinations like BZE, LIR or SJO. Is that because they want to drive all business to the IAH fortress?

Even Latam don't fly north of LAX.

Yes, I realize the airline business is run by supply and demand, but I'm quite surprised. Any background on this?
 
SDFguy
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:52 pm

alan3 wrote:
Any background on this?


No demand.
 
airzona11
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:55 pm

You have to overfly LAX/DFW/IAH/MIA/ATL etc to get there. Those are long flights, with little premium demand.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:55 pm

alan3 wrote:
Surprised to see that the only flight to Central or South America on any airline from any US city north of LAX is just CM from SFO-PTY.

SEA, PDX and SJC don't have a single flight to Central America or South America, and SFO just has that one flight to PTY and nothing to South America.

UA don't fly one single flight from SFO to anywhere south of Mexico...not even to the more-tourist traffic destinations like BZE, LIR or SJO. Is that because they want to drive all business to the IAH fortress?

Even Latam don't fly north of LAX.

Yes, I realize the airline business is run by supply and demand, but I'm quite surprised. Any background on this?


As far as UA is concerned, you wont see routes like SFO-EZE/SCL for the same reason you wont see IAH-HKG/KIX. Youre overflying a hub and the markets dont generate very high fares to those destinations.
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alan3
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:59 pm

SDFguy wrote:
alan3 wrote:
Any background on this?


No demand.


Hmmm. The Bay Area, the 5th most populous metro area of the United States and home to almost 9 million people including the world's primary tech hub and a major UA fortress hub, doesn't have any demand, yet you can fly to Costa Rica from Baltimore?
Last edited by alan3 on Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
steex
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:03 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
As far as UA is concerned, you wont see routes like SFO-EZE/SCL for the same reason you wont see IAH-HKG/KIX. Youre overflying a hub and the markets dont generate very high fares to those destinations.


Adding to that, the stage lengths are also fairly long into deep South America. SFO-EZE is at least as long as many SFO-Asia flights, so from an aircraft utilization standpoint, SFO-EZE on UA would have to project to operate more profitably than a potential Asian route - a tall order given UA's powerhouse position in SFO and the very high levels of demand to many Asian destinations. I don't have numbers, so forgive me if my assumption is inaccurate, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to find out there is higher demand and yield to places like Busan and Nagoya (both without SFO flights) than to Buenos Aires or Santiago.
 
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psa1011
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:15 pm

I think UA is probably happy with CM doing SFO-PTY 3x daily, and AV doing SFO-SAL 2x.
 
simpv
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:16 pm

The only adds I can foresee would be AV (or UA if they agree to a JV) SFO-BOG, which would provide another connecting point to most of South America. Perhaps Latam would restart an SFO-LIM or SFO-SCL, but again to funnel connecting passengers.

Other than that, the long stage length combined with overflying other hubs, plus the rocky economic recovery in places like Brazil and Argentina mean that it is unlikely for UA to fly SFO-South America. I would imagine UA would look more to established markets in Europe or Asia. After all, EWR-EZE was added less than a year ago. If the US were to provide an easier transfer for international connecting passengers, then UA could funnel connecting passengers from Asia to South America, but until then it seems unlikely.
 
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:18 pm

There used to be a thrice weekly 767 300 flight on SFO LIM that ended in 2014, This was ended in favor of more capacity in LAX where Oneworld has more connectivity. The loads were good and LATAM stressed at the time that it was not loosing money but clearly they could make more elsewhere.

With weakness in the economies of Brazil, Venezuela and now Argentina if they could not keep it running in 2014 this would not be the ideal time.
 
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:19 pm

alan3 wrote:
SDFguy wrote:
alan3 wrote:
Any background on this?


No demand.


Hmmm. The Bay Area, the 5th most populous metro area of the United States and home to almost 9 million people including the world's primary tech hub and a major UA fortress hub, doesn't have any demand, yet you can fly to Costa Rica from Baltimore?


Exactly. Color me very skeptical on this one. And by the "overflies a hub" logic, there should also be no service from (say) IAH, DEN, or MIA to Europe.

In the short term, they probably think the planes can be deployed more profitably to Asia, and of course there is the current emerging markets downturn. But I believe in the longer term we will see someone fly SFO-GRU, most likely, particularly if the Brazilian economy recovers.
 
jasoncrh
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:20 pm

why would United be happy with that? They dont share revenue from them, and dont get any money from those carries operating those routes? That's a weird thing to say.



psa1011 wrote:
I think UA is probably happy with CM doing SFO-PTY 3x daily, and AV doing SFO-SAL 2x.
 
IADCA
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:21 pm

alan3 wrote:
SDFguy wrote:
alan3 wrote:
Any background on this?


No demand.


Hmmm. The Bay Area, the 5th most populous metro area of the United States and home to almost 9 million people including the world's primary tech hub and a major UA fortress hub, doesn't have any demand, yet you can fly to Costa Rica from Baltimore?


"No" demand is an exaggeration, but there's an elephant in the room here - Hawaii. The fact that Hawaii is a relatively short flight from the Bay Area profoundly affects the demand to any other tropical destination. That takes care of a lot of why there are no nonstops to Central America and the Caribbean (along with the fact that the Central American diaspora is weighted towards the East Coast).

By the way, "Baltimore" in your scenario is BWI, which is pulling a lot of traffic from DC as well. I realize you're deliberately obscuring that for rhetorical purposes, but it comes across as a bit too sly.

South America is a bit more complicated, but a lot of it is distance plus the presence of hubs in Texas.
Last edited by IADCA on Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jasoncrh
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:26 pm

United "funnels" connecting passengers from South America to Asia via IAH. Their flights from GRU, EZE, GIG, and SCL to IAH connect dozens of passengers daily, from each flight, onto the airline's IAH - NRT flight. People from South America who can afford to travel to Asia can generally get a US visa, if they dont already have one.

LATAM or whoever would (re) start SFO-LIM, or start SFO -SCL - on the strength of the local market. That's how most long haul international flights work. There needs to be strength on the gate to gate sector - ie., paid premium demand - as a basis to support the nonstop flight. The "funneling" would be gravy. SFO and LIM have a large local market. The problem has always been that it generally is lower fare VFR traffic, not the higher yield biz traffic that makes a flight work. Also, SFO-SCL/LIM does, as others have mentioned, overfly many other hubs. The market is too fractured and there isnt enough premium traffic to make the nonstops work except during the very best economic environment.



quote="simpv"]The only adds I can foresee would be AV (or UA if they agree to a JV) SFO-BOG, which would provide another connecting point to most of South America. Perhaps Latam would restart an SFO-LIM or SFO-SCL, but again to funnel connecting passengers.

Other than that, the long stage length combined with overflying other hubs, plus the rocky economic recovery in places like Brazil and Argentina mean that it is unlikely for UA to fly SFO-South America. I would imagine UA would look more to established markets in Europe or Asia. After all, EWR-EZE was added less than a year ago. If the US were to provide an easier transfer for international connecting passengers, then UA could funnel connecting passengers from Asia to South America, but until then it seems unlikely.[/quote]
 
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:28 pm

People from the bay Area go to Hawaii for vacation. For them it's a quick (relatively) flight. United and the other airlines in the Bay Area only have so many airplanes to use, and have decided to follow the local demand and put them in Hawaii. For those who want to go elsewhere, United, AA, and others have convenient hubs that take them to Central America.

The Baltimore / DC region is large and wealthy, and Costa Rica is a popular vacation destination. It works.

\
alan3 wrote:
SDFguy wrote:
alan3 wrote:
Any background on this?


No demand.


Hmmm. The Bay Area, the 5th most populous metro area of the United States and home to almost 9 million people including the world's primary tech hub and a major UA fortress hub, doesn't have any demand, yet you can fly to Costa Rica from Baltimore?
 
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:29 pm

As mentioned, Copa and Avianca pretty much have it covered through PTY and SAL. Lots of frequency and plenty of connection opportunities with both. With the exception of LAN's SFO-LIM, I can't think of any previous nonstop service between SFO and South America. Even long ago, Braniff and Pan Am took you through LAX or MIA.
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:31 pm

alan3 wrote:
SDFguy wrote:
alan3 wrote:
Any background on this?


No demand.


Hmmm. The Bay Area, the 5th most populous metro area of the United States and home to almost 9 million people including the world's primary tech hub and a major UA fortress hub, doesn't have any demand, yet you can fly to Costa Rica from Baltimore?


So the Bay Area is a tech hub... how does that create business demand (one of the cohorts willing to pay a premium for non-stops) to Central or South America? Tech manufacturing is in SE Asia and East Asia, not Central or S America.

Your argument is that every carrier is doing it wrong. Prove that, wise guy.
 
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:33 pm

I think people in the United States often forget just how far East Central and South America are. To add a bit of weight behind the "no need to overfly a hub" argument, from a longitude perspective, Lima is aligned with the East Coast of the United States, and GRU the middle of the Atlantic.

A great circle mapper will show you that SFO-GRU for example flies pretty close to IAH, so combining that with the limited premium demand between the West Coast and South America is a pretty sound explanation for the lack of nonstop capacity. If AA finds success with their upcoming LAX-EZE service we might see some further adds, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

In short - geography and limited premium demand.
 
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:33 pm

For sure there is demand, and probably there is more demand to SFO than to LAX if you are talking of point-to-point traffic. The thing is that LAX provides better connection to Asian markets than SFO and so you will find direct flights to LAX, like the AV daily flight from BOG in a B787 (or A330). The thing is that if you want to serve only point-to-point traffic, is too expensive to fly a wide body to SFO, but is the only way to make it from any city in South America. So airlines like AV offer flights to SFO but using their A320 from SAL, and from SAL you can connect to most northern cities in South America, like BOG, UIO, GYE, MDE, LIM, CLO and some others, only using narrow body airplanes.
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simpv
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:46 pm

winginit wrote:
I think people in the United States often forget just how far East Central and South America are. To add a bit of weight behind the "no need to overfly a hub" argument, from a longitude perspective, Lima is aligned with the East Coast of the United States, and GRU the middle of the Atlantic.

A great circle mapper will show you that SFO-GRU for example flies pretty close to IAH, so combining that with the limited premium demand between the West Coast and South America is a pretty sound explanation for the lack of nonstop capacity. If AA finds success with their upcoming LAX-EZE service we might see some further adds, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

In short - geography and limited premium demand.


I can believe that there is limited premium demand, but does anybody actually have data on SFO-South America PDEW, such as SFO-EZE or SFO-GRU?
 
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:56 pm

Look at a map
 
RCS763AV
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:57 pm

South America also has its tech hubs (Argentina and Colombia) and large financial centers (Sao Paulo, Santiago, Bogota). It's not like we don't have advanced technology and sophisticated financial transactions down there. Also, many (maybe the majority) of the migrants from South America who have settled in the bay area are mostly educated professionals or grad students (like myself going to Berkeley right now or those who go to Stanford), which creates some premium demand as well.

The truth is the stage length is very long for a narrow body (BOG-SFO would probably be flying for 8 hours, and that is the closest south american capital) and there are just too many options to connect (MEX, PTY, SAL, ATL, MIA, IAH, LAX, DFW).

I think we'll eventually see these flights happening once the new generation of MoM aircraft enter the market.
 
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janders
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:02 pm

The lack of historic and current service levels say much about the demand profile and geographic realities.

Fact the LAN failed spectacularly at SFO-LIM even after trying multiple schedule variations is a good insight into the market.

LatinAirliner wrote:
For sure there is demand, and probably there is more demand to SFO than to LAX if you are talking of point-to-point traffic.


LAX has far more demand to Latin America than SFO. Just look at the huge foreign populations in LA. As Volaris CEO once said, Los Angeles is virtually a domestic market for Mexican carriers.
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zakuivcustom
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:03 pm

LatinAirliner wrote:
For sure there is demand, and probably there is more demand to SFO than to LAX if you are talking of point-to-point traffic. The thing is that LAX provides better connection to Asian markets than SFO and so you will find direct flights to LAX, like the AV daily flight from BOG in a B787 (or A330). The thing is that if you want to serve only point-to-point traffic, is too expensive to fly a wide body to SFO, but is the only way to make it from any city in South America. So airlines like AV offer flights to SFO but using their A320 from SAL, and from SAL you can connect to most northern cities in South America, like BOG, UIO, GYE, MDE, LIM, CLO and some others, only using narrow body airplanes.


SFO more than LAX? VFR market alone would say otherwise. Asian connection is only a small part of the picture anyway.

There's not really any large business presence, either. AFAIK most Latin America-related business with presence in California are in LA, not SF Bay Area.
 
alan3
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:05 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:

So the Bay Area is a tech hub... how does that create business demand (one of the cohorts willing to pay a premium for non-stops) to Central or South America? Tech manufacturing is in SE Asia and East Asia, not Central or S America.

Your argument is that every carrier is doing it wrong. Prove that, wise guy.


I never said every carrier is doing it wrong, but a two word "no demand" response is neither helpful nor accurate. Thankfully, a lot of other people have since provided more detailed, polite and helpful responses since then.

My point in addressing that it was a tech hub is that a lot of people in northern California and Seattle are quite comfortably off....People with money like to go on vacation, and diving vacations to Belize and Roatan and rainforest/beach vacations in Costa Rica are big business, not to the mention demand for travel to South America for various reasons, so I was surprised that in such a large metro area, there is "no demand".
 
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:22 pm

Geography and distance certainly does not help the Bay Area case, but LA basin is by far the larger local market.

Even Latin carriers that do serve the Bay Area, AM, AV, CM, Y4, etc do so with far lower frequency than they do out of LA.
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:30 pm

SFO - I could see SFO-Central & South America growing in the future. Maybe United on SFO-GRU/RIO in the future would be good opportunities for them. I think they're currently using IAH (and LAX to a much lesser extent) as a connecting point for SFO passengers to Central & South America.

SJC - Same as SFO, but with no legacy airline hub there, it would be much tougher for them to gain these sorts of flights.

SEA - Easy 1-stop connections at LAX on Alaska and then onward to Central & South America via partner airlines.

PDX - Easy 1-stop connections at LAX on Alaska and then onward to Central & South America via partner airlines.
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ScottB
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:42 pm

alan3 wrote:
My point in addressing that it was a tech hub is that a lot of people in northern California and Seattle are quite comfortably off....People with money like to go on vacation, and diving vacations to Belize and Roatan and rainforest/beach vacations in Costa Rica are big business, not to the mention demand for travel to South America for various reasons, so I was surprised that in such a large metro area, there is "no demand".


The issue isn't that the demand is zero, but rather that very little incremental demand would be generated by non-stops to BZE/SJO/RTB/LIR. United is the hub carrier at SFO so they're going to capture the vast majority of demand on connections through IAH thanks to loyalty program lock-in. They might get a few more passengers with a non-stop, but operating non-stops from SFO to Central America is expensive given that the crews have to overnight at the outstation (IAH trips can be out-and-back in most cases) and they'd need to expand their LODO Spanish crew numbers. SFO-Latin America also offers little network benefit as most markets with appreciable demand to Central & South America are already connected to IAH (and the remaining small markets don't have better service options with other carriers). Anything further than SFO-BOG would require a widebody and UA has better uses for those.
 
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:34 pm

It's not just the local traffic component. There is almost zero logical flow traffic via LAX or SFO. SEA? Shorter over IAH. PDX? SAN? SLC? LAS? YVR? All shorter over IAH.

There is virtually no major demand set for whom it would be better to fly over LAX or SFO to SAM.
 
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:15 pm

Numbers are there to support both SFO-LIM and SFO-GRU. Talks are going on as we speak to bring service from both of these markets. Bay Area is not LA from a population standpoint but for sure but GDP per capita, income per capita, Fortune 500 presence, propensity for foreign travel... by all these measures it blows LA out of the water.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:33 pm

SFOA380 wrote:
Numbers are there to support both SFO-LIM and SFO-GRU. Talks are going on as we speak to bring service from both of these markets. Bay Area is not LA from a population standpoint but for sure but GDP per capita, income per capita, Fortune 500 presence, propensity for foreign travel... by all these measures it blows LA out of the water.


LA just failed multiple times at SFO-LIM. There is no way on earth any carrier is going to fly that route anytime soon.

The last sentence is irrelevant to the Latin America equation.

SFO-GRU just isnt going to materialize. Its too long, the fares are too low, and there are way too many "along the way" options for them to use as a connecting point.

Also, income per capita may be higher in the Bay that LA, but that doesnt change the fact that LA is a much larger local market to almost every region on earth.

As Ive said before, youre not going to see SFO-LIM/GIG/GRU for the same reason you wont see IAH-HKG. SFO is the gateway to Asia, IAH is the gateway to Latin America. Too much overflying of hubs for a market that is either too small or doesnt have high enough fares and that isnt the purpose the hubs serve. In order for an airline to overfly hubs, there has to be a significant local market with significant fares. Thats why UA does so well on SFO-Europe routes. The fares are high and the markets are big.
Last edited by LAXdude1023 on Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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flyfresno
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:38 pm

Could the A321LR operate SFO-LIM?
 
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:52 pm

I think SFO to Costa Rica is a viable market. The 737MAX probably will help open up the market to LIR. The route is possible with a 737NG, but probably the plane would have weight restrictions.

flyfresno wrote:
Could the A321LR operate SFO-LIM?


Cargo is important in making Lima profitable and the A321LR is terrible at carrying cargo.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:15 pm

flyfresno wrote:
Could the A321LR operate SFO-LIM?


I would say it's on the edge of A321LR's range (SFO-LIM is about 3900nmi). In low density cabin, yes, it's doable, but is the market really THAT premium? (Yes, SF Bay Area is rich, but that doesn't mean tourism routes out of SFO automatically mean ultra high yield premium travel).

Newbiepilot wrote:
I think SFO to Costa Rica is a viable market. The 737MAX probably will help open up the market to LIR. The route is possible with a 737NG, but probably the plane would have weight restrictions.


It's well within 737NG's range. CM fly even further to PTY on 737NGs just to start (I don't know if CM takes any weight restriction, though).
 
mdavies06
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:35 pm

It is not just the issue of insufficient demand but also hub connection opportunities (flight frequency) at the southern hubs are too plentiful. Same reason why for example the East Coast (except NYC MIA) seemingly having little South America direct flights (especially deep southern cone e.g. GRU or EZE). Another example where this hub effect plays out is the US-India market - huge demand but to mostly 1-stop connecting carriers based in Europe/ME.
Last edited by mdavies06 on Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:45 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:42 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
I think SFO to Costa Rica is a viable market. The 737MAX probably will help open up the market to LIR. The route is possible with a 737NG, but probably the plane would have weight restrictions.


It's well within 737NG's range. CM fly even further to PTY on 737NGs just to start (I don't know if CM takes any weight restriction, though).


LIR has some terrain clearance requirements that can limit MTOW depending on winds and temperatures

http://vatca.net/files/MRLB.pdf

There is a requirement for 350 ft per 1nm climb. That is not prohibitive but depending on conditions can result in weight restrictions or a fuel stop
 
eamondzhang
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:45 pm

Why would they have to have every flight to every continent? Precisely where A.net has gone down to. And don't try to argue, this is exactly your logic.

Michael
 
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:48 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
SFOA380 wrote:
Numbers are there to support both SFO-LIM and SFO-GRU. Talks are going on as we speak to bring service from both of these markets. Bay Area is not LA from a population standpoint but for sure but GDP per capita, income per capita, Fortune 500 presence, propensity for foreign travel... by all these measures it blows LA out of the water.


LA just failed multiple times at SFO-LIM. There is no way on earth any carrier is going to fly that route anytime soon.

The last sentence is irrelevant to the Latin America equation.

SFO-GRU just isnt going to materialize. Its too long, the fares are too low, and there are way too many "along the way" options for them to use as a connecting point.

Also, income per capita may be higher in the Bay that LA, but that doesnt change the fact that LA is a much larger local market to almost every region on earth.

As Ive said before, youre not going to see SFO-LIM/GIG/GRU for the same reason you wont see IAH-HKG. SFO is the gateway to Asia, IAH is the gateway to Latin America. Too much overflying of hubs for a market that is either too small or doesnt have high enough fares and that isnt the purpose the hubs serve. In order for an airline to overfly hubs, there has to be a significant local market with significant fares. Thats why UA does so well on SFO-Europe routes. The fares are high and the markets are big.



You are more than entitled to your opinions as are all on this forum. I have facts and am close to the source. LA failed exactly once on SFO-LIM. I know dramatic outbursts are more fun but let's stick to the facts.
 
B752OS
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:50 pm

steex wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
As far as UA is concerned, you wont see routes like SFO-EZE/SCL for the same reason you wont see IAH-HKG/KIX. Youre overflying a hub and the markets dont generate very high fares to those destinations.


Adding to that, the stage lengths are also fairly long into deep South America. SFO-EZE is at least as long as many SFO-Asia flights, so from an aircraft utilization standpoint, SFO-EZE on UA would have to project to operate more profitably than a potential Asian route - a tall order given UA's powerhouse position in SFO and the very high levels of demand to many Asian destinations. I don't have numbers, so forgive me if my assumption is inaccurate, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to find out there is higher demand and yield to places like Busan and Nagoya (both without SFO flights) than to Buenos Aires or Santiago.


I just looked on gcmap and SFO-EZE is longer than SFO-NRT, SFO-PEK, SFO-PVG and SFO-ICN. SFO-EZE and SFO-GRU are essentially the same length as SFO-TPE.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:00 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
I think SFO to Costa Rica is a viable market. The 737MAX probably will help open up the market to LIR. The route is possible with a 737NG, but probably the plane would have weight restrictions.


It's well within 737NG's range. CM fly even further to PTY on 737NGs just to start (I don't know if CM takes any weight restriction, though).


LIR has some terrain clearance requirements that can limit MTOW depending on winds and temperatures

http://vatca.net/files/MRLB.pdf

There is a requirement for 350 ft per 1nm climb. That is not prohibitive but depending on conditions can result in weight restrictions or a fuel stop


Ahh...makes more sense now. Thanks for the info (I was looking at it from a pure distance perspective).

P.S. South America is large. A flight to BOG or LIM is certainly not comparable to a flight to "Southern Cone" + Southern Brazil (i.e. SCL/EZE/GRU/GIG). While we're at that, there's not even a LAX-EZE flight right now (I know, AA is starting that in December) for the same reason - stage length.

Quite frankly, IMHO we may see SFO-BOG and maybe SFO-SJO, but that's about it. Anything further south you're getting into widebody territory.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:06 am

SFOA380 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
SFOA380 wrote:
Numbers are there to support both SFO-LIM and SFO-GRU. Talks are going on as we speak to bring service from both of these markets. Bay Area is not LA from a population standpoint but for sure but GDP per capita, income per capita, Fortune 500 presence, propensity for foreign travel... by all these measures it blows LA out of the water.


LA just failed multiple times at SFO-LIM. There is no way on earth any carrier is going to fly that route anytime soon.

The last sentence is irrelevant to the Latin America equation.

SFO-GRU just isnt going to materialize. Its too long, the fares are too low, and there are way too many "along the way" options for them to use as a connecting point.

Also, income per capita may be higher in the Bay that LA, but that doesnt change the fact that LA is a much larger local market to almost every region on earth.

As Ive said before, youre not going to see SFO-LIM/GIG/GRU for the same reason you wont see IAH-HKG. SFO is the gateway to Asia, IAH is the gateway to Latin America. Too much overflying of hubs for a market that is either too small or doesnt have high enough fares and that isnt the purpose the hubs serve. In order for an airline to overfly hubs, there has to be a significant local market with significant fares. Thats why UA does so well on SFO-Europe routes. The fares are high and the markets are big.



You are more than entitled to your opinions as are all on this forum. I have facts and am close to the source. LA failed exactly once on SFO-LIM. I know dramatic outbursts are more fun but let's stick to the facts.


I doubt it. LA failed recently and the market dynamic hasn’t changed. The odds of UA launching these are near zero and the odds of a third party carrier aren’t much higher. I can’t tell you how many people I’ve talked to who work with airports and beg for routes they aren’t getting. I’m very skeptical of your claim for that reason.

Also, go look up the definition of outburst.
Next flight: IAH-UIO-IAH on UA in Y
 
dfwjim1
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:11 am

Remember too that a aircraft flying from SFO to deep South America is going to have sit around at its destination airport at least 12 hour before heading back to SFO. I arrived in GRU from MIA this morning on AA and it was amazing the number of European and American aircraft that were parked at remote stands waiting to return home.
 
2travel2know2
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:11 am

IMHO:
CM most likely won't want to split its capacity between SFO and SJC. Same for LAX and SNA/ONT.
CM to SEA may be doable with B737MAX, so it might happen within 2 years (my guess).
CM to PDX, in the very long term perhaps.
As for South America - SFO, at this point in time and given the existing demand: AV seasonal BOG-SFO and LATAM or even AV LIM-SFO seasonal, all wide-body routes. Seasonal being December and January.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
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FA9295
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:23 am

2travel2know2 wrote:
IMHO:
CM most likely won't want to split its capacity between SFO and SJC. Same for LAX and SNA/ONT.
CM to SEA may be doable with B737MAX, so it might happen within 2 years (my guess).
CM to PDX, in the very long term perhaps.
As for South America - SFO, at this point in time and given the existing demand: AV seasonal BOG-SFO and LATAM or even AV LIM-SFO seasonal, all wide-body routes. Seasonal being December and January.

In comparison to SEA, PDX is obviously a tad bit closer, and on long and thin routes like this, every single mile counts. With that being said, PDX probably has just as much of a chance that SEA does.
No, "FA" in my username does not stand for "flight attendant"...
 
Chasensfo
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:43 am

Being careful how I word this, LATAM has definitely considered re-entering the SFO market...but the proposed flights have never made it past the planning stage.

The problem with Copa and TACA is that only 1 flight between them normally operates on G-terminal, which is connected post-TSA to T3 where the United connections arrive from. That means pax connecting onto the 2 Copa redeye departures or TACA's redeye must find their way from T3 to A terminal and re-clear TSA, this can be a huge task when the AirTrain is down for Hotel construction(happens very often at night) and the TSA lines are huge because CX, CI, CZ, KE, ect are all leaving around the same time. Not that airlines seem to care at all about disconnecting pax, as evident by Alaska selling 45 minute connections in SFO than diverting flights to SJC/OAK because they "think" there will be delays at SFO(but not canceling the diversion when there are no delays!) and other things I see regularly, but the night time connections from United to TACA/Copa are a huge hassle. The morning TACA leaves far too early for any connections, unless it is an over-night connection.

While UA can route pax to/from SFO on these carriers, I am sure the flyers would much appreciate a UA South America option, if one were to ever materialize. But as stated in this thread, very few have tried NorCal/Pac NW to South America and none have made it work. VARIG/VASP came to SFO in the late 80s and were gone by the very early 90s, then one tried again until LAN Peru...and no one has tried again since they left in 2014.

Then again, if UA put a 788 on IAH-SYD despite Air New Zealand and the option to connect pax well thru LAX/SFO, never say never. Given UA's large Asia network from SFO, I have to wonder what the Asia-GIG/GRU/EZE ect demand is. LAX of course has historically been the stopping point for carriers between Asia/South America, but as far as UA is concerned, SFO is now far and away the prime Asia gateway. Not that I am suggesting that this traffic alone could justify a flight, but I would not be surprised to see a 788 fly to one of the mentioned South American cities in the next several years unless the economy tanks again.
 
alan3
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Re: No flights from SFO/SJC/SEA/PDX to all of South America? And just 1 to Central America?

Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:46 am

eamondzhang wrote:
Why would they have to have every flight to every continent? Precisely where A.net has gone down to. And don't try to argue, this is exactly your logic.

Michael



Actually where ANet has gone down are the increasingly sarcastic and snarky responses by ANet Nerds to reasonable curious questions by airline enthusiasts.

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