User avatar
Zoedyn
Topic Author
Posts: 724
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:46 pm

Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:42 am

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ub-project

Highlights of Poland's planned new airport per the Bloomberg article:

• Poland to pour $9.4 billion by 2027 into the building of a new airport 45 km away from Warsaw with a 45 million pax capacity, aiming to create a key European gateway to Asia by taking advantage of Poland's geographic edge

• To be the biggest airport in central/eastern Europe, as well as being the biggest undertaking in Poland’s modern history

• Planned later extensions would make it compare with UK's LHR, with a goal of adding 2 more runways and 2 terminals to serve 100M pax eventually

• The govern't to tap budget resources, debt and EU funds, looking for Asian partners for financing, with great interest from financial institutions

• Deputy Infrastructure Minister suggested it as potentially "a geopolitical project due to its sheer scale"


Impressive

Really rare and greatly surprised to find such phenomenal big-stroke aviation projects coming from areas outside the Asia-Pacific, let alone from a relatively small European country

Kudos to Poland

This is probably the first planned new airport in Europe that AFAIK has boldly declared a 100M pax as its envisaged target, sth that is virtually the norm rather than exception in many Asia-Pacific countries

Also the idea of building a European gateway hub to Asia is nothing new (eg, HEL, MOW), but a Polish version is certainly new and interesting. Will Warsaw pull it off? And how?

On financing, wondering whether Poland would jump onto China's much-hyped One Belt One Road initiative for cooperation in a connectivity-centered project like this one, as it seems to be fully in line with what OBRB claims to be promoting
 
a320fan
Posts: 772
Joined: Fri May 01, 2009 5:04 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:05 am

Sounds like a pipe dream. Hubs are quite cemented by now and whilst I'm sure LOT could slowly grow, to do so to such a large scale in any sort of semi rapid time frame would take a lot of $$$ and changing of consumer behaviour. They only have 11 long haul aircraft with 4 on order.
A319, A320, A321, A330-200, A350-900, A380, 737-700, 737-800, 777-200ER, 777-300, 777-300ER, 787-8, Q300, Q400
 
konkret
Posts: 283
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:26 pm

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:12 am

By what measure do you consider Poland a “relatively small European country”? By area it is larger than Italy or the UK, by population it is bigger than the Netherlands, Belgium and Sweden combined.
 
WPvsMW
Posts: 2062
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:30 pm

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:21 am

IST ... same concept, almost completed.... and an airline with the right fleet hubbed there.
Interesting corollary ... admission to Shengen is more important to IST than Turkey joining the EU (the former is possible, the latter unlikely).
 
enzedder
Posts: 71
Joined: Tue Aug 09, 2005 11:32 pm

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:25 am

more a pipe dream of their more and more autocratic government.

cheers enzedder
 
Blerg
Posts: 2186
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:30 am

Truth be told this is nothing new. LO and WAW have been doing this for years but their expansion has been limited due to space constraints at the airport. From what I remember LO announced plans to launch DEL and IKA while its SIN and ICN flights have proven to be highly successful where both received additional frequencies.

That said, maybe it's time to start reevaluating their relationship with Star Alliance. oneworld would be a much better fit.
 
User avatar
QuawerAir
Posts: 851
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2017 9:44 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:32 am

a320fan wrote:
Sounds like a pipe dream. Hubs are quite cemented by now and whilst I'm sure LOT could slowly grow, to do so to such a large scale in any sort of semi rapid time frame would take a lot of $$$ and changing of consumer behaviour. They only have 11 long haul aircraft with 4 on order.

Yeah, LOT is a pretty small airline and I don't see it growing rapidly. If the airport will handle up to 100,000,000 pax, shouldn't LOT fleet include at least 300 aircraft, including several aircraft with high capacity (like A380 and 777)?
ATL, AYT, FRA, FUE, HEL, JFK, LCA, LHR, MUC | AY, BA, DL, FH, LH, LO | A320, A321, A333, 752, 764, 772, 788
The word "Quawer" means nothing but it looks great.
 
User avatar
KrustyTheKlown
Posts: 347
Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2016 3:45 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:44 am

The new Istambul airport will seriously undermine the Polish proposal as it has a planned capacity of 200M passengers/year and already has a major airline based there. Politics may play a role in stunting IST growth if Erdogan keeps being.. Erdogan, but even so it will remain an important competitor for the same market that the new Polish airport seeks.

Turkish Airlines already has a fleet of over 300 aircraft while LOT currently has 73 so the latter's owners will have to invest heavily to build a EU-Asia hub.

Another factor is that both airlines are in Star Alliance.
 
vahancrazy
Posts: 164
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2007 5:54 pm

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:01 am

With Istanbul South and Helsinki north as edtablished Europe-Asia hub + similar goal from Aeroflot, it look crazy but amazing for us avgeek.
I don't know if transit in MOS an ld IST are easy but you can expect Europeans to prefer a transfer within the Schengen area if the price is the similar (or better).
 
airzona11
Posts: 1518
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:44 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:02 am

Poland has some positive economic direction and geographically is in a good location for East West hub. The airline industry is changing, ULCCs growing and Legacy carriers are shifting. Look how different it is from 10 years ago. There is no reason aviation cannot spur lots of growth for Poland. Aviation hubs are pivotal to economic development, why wouldn’t Poland pursue this? Sure their 100m goal might be lofty, but directionally, big is better for Poland and Europe. Poland is one of the more promising locations for Asian capital infusions, might as well trying and dip into the honey pot!
 
pdp
Posts: 171
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:14 pm

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 6:44 am

konkret wrote:
By what measure do you consider Poland a “relatively small European country”? By area it is larger than Italy or the UK, by population it is bigger than the Netherlands, Belgium and Sweden combined.


It's a reasonably big country yes, but the spending power is still generally lower than Western Europe.

I'd love a big Polish airport, aviation there is growing because the terrestrial public transport is pretty awful and a hub would do well. There are a couple of issues that I can see though :

1. It's not really that near Warsaw in public transport terms
2. Chopin and Modlin seem to be adequate for now, certainly not $100bn spending required bad!
 
mxaxai
Posts: 1091
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 7:25 am

Zoedyn wrote:
• The govern't to tap budget resources, debt and EU funds, looking for Asian partners for financing, with great interest from financial institutions

On financing, wondering whether Poland would jump onto China's much-hyped One Belt One Road initiative for cooperation in a connectivity-centered project like this one, as it seems to be fully in line with what OBRB claims to be promoting

It wouldn't be the first airport that is bought or built with Chinese money, certainly. But any kind of external financing would make polish politics even more confusing:

They're mortally afraid of Russia, but wouldn't seem afraid to partner with China. (if financed by china)

They hate the EU's interference with their path to autocracy, but would happily take EU money. (if financed by EU)


If they decide to keep Chopin & Modlin open, they could also run into a situation like Milan: The hub airport cannot attract O&D passengers and the O&D airport is not large enough to support a proper hub. Warsaw is not London or NY, who can easily support two hubs or more.
 
c933103
Posts: 3805
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:28 am

.... Even Serbia seems to be more likely than Poland to succeed for what they're now planning
When no other countries around the world is going to militarily stop China and its subordinate fom abusing its citizens within its national boundary, it is unreasonable to expect those abuse can be countered with purely peaceful means.
 
Milka
Posts: 162
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 7:45 pm

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:13 am

This project is a populist joke, its only purpose is to gain support in the next elections slated for 2019. This airport is never going to get built, its supposed to open in less than 10 years time and still no final location has been chosen or any studies conducted let alone any project proposed. I have been observing Polish aviation for 10 years now and I am 100% sure this will never get built.
 
Kikko19
Posts: 525
Joined: Sat Apr 22, 2017 4:45 pm

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:06 am

If WAW, Why not LED as gateway? or RIX? It's money and politics all over. meanwhile HEL grows and become more efficient.
 
Bricktop
Posts: 1375
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:04 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:10 am

Let's stick to the airport issue, and not violate a.net dogma that the EU is perfect in every aspect.

Warsaw as a hub is a horrible idea. There are already hubs in the Gulf, soon Turkey and even in Helsinki that can do the same job. Are the Kazakhs trying the same deal in Astana? Maybe there's a play based on the Turkish political situation, but those things change. How much time is saved if you have weather issues? (same for HEL I would say). Money pit.
 
Aither
Posts: 1206
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:43 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:39 am

High chances this would be funded by the Chinese under the one road one belt policy.
Never trust the obvious
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 17910
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:01 pm

With the EU3 maxed out at the times people want to fly, there is a need for a we'll placed hub to North Asia.
The new IST and ME3 will handle SE ASIA and West Africa growth. ET for Africa. DUB and US3 for TATL.

Seriously, reading Friedman's The World is flat and Bernstein's Trade, a solended exchange should be required reading for all. The EU is outsourcing aviation.


airzona11 wrote:
Poland has some positive economic direction and geographically is in a good location for East West hub. The airline industry is changing, ULCCs growing and Legacy carriers are shifting. Look how different it is from 10 years ago. There is no reason aviation cannot spur lots of growth for Poland. Aviation hubs are pivotal to economic development, why wouldn’t Poland pursue this? Sure their 100m goal might be lofty, but directionally, big is better for Poland and Europe. Poland is one of the more promising locations for Asian capital infusions, might as well trying and dip into the honey pot!

I think there is great potential.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
rlwynn
Posts: 1386
Joined: Fri Dec 15, 2000 3:35 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:23 pm

I do not get this hub to Asia from Europe thing. Why does there need to be a hub to Asia when you can get to almost anywhere in Asia from almost anywhere in Europe.
I can drive faster than you
 
User avatar
PerfectGriffin
Posts: 534
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 7:35 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:35 pm

It's going to be difficult competing with IST, as well as CDG, AMS, FRA and even DXB, DOH and AUH for the same traffic. Unfortunately Poland is a decade too late.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 17910
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:56 pm

rlwynn wrote:
I do not get this hub to Asia from Europe thing. Why does there need to be a hub to Asia when you can get to almost anywhere in Asia from almost anywhere in Europe.

Growth.

There are billions of people in Asia clawing to enter the middle class. Travelers want to travel when they desire (usually while sleeping during the flight).

There is unmet demand as the ME3 growth shows.

Air travel Europe to Asia should double over the next 20 years. The current hubs cannot meet that demand. They certainly cannot at the times people want to fly.

Europe is short on hub capacity at the desired times. One doesn't tell customers when to fly. They go online, find a flight time that suits them and they fly.

Asia is most of the economic growth.
I can name plenty of cities in Asia with poor connections where customers would pay more.

The era of bridge hubbing (two or more connections) is coming to a close. Only the most populous cities in Asia have good connections. That leaves a large number of high population cities. e.g. South Philippines, South Japan, Eastern China, Vietnam, Cambodia, China North of Beijing and most of Russia has bad connections.

There is unmet demand. As I said before, I do not understand this need to deny there is a market which means outsourcing.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
kanye
Posts: 96
Joined: Thu Jun 28, 2007 3:32 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:05 pm

PerfectGriffin wrote:
It's going to be difficult competing with IST, as well as CDG, AMS, FRA and even DXB, DOH and AUH for the same traffic. Unfortunately Poland is a decade too late.


Exactly my thought. Plus you have more minor hubs like Copenhapen, Helsinki, Vienna, Zurich which are constantly growing as well.




How is it with A321LR, will it have possibility to fly Europe - Asia?
 
User avatar
aemoreira1981
Posts: 2824
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:17 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:07 pm

The real competition here would be AY. But AY is already well established as a brand in the Far East. The question now remains if AY can garner additional overflight rights over Russia. Among European airlines to India, if I'm not mistaken, they also have the only departure to Europe in the morning (while everyone else departs at or just after midnight); their flight to DEL is a red-eye. I don't see how LO, not really established as a busimessman's airline, can compete against AY.
 
hoya
Posts: 546
Joined: Wed Jun 23, 2004 2:25 pm

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:38 pm

Will Russia grant LO the overflight rights to/from Asia? When LOT restarted their Asia flights - I believe NRT was first - Russia did not grant overflight rights initially. And we all know what Polish-Russian relations are like these days. Now, imagine if Polish President Duda actually convinces President Trump to build a permanent U.S. military base in Poland (Duda jokingly called it 'Fort Trump' at a press conference earlier this week), say bye-bye to any good cooperation with Russia. As others have said, this isn't a well thought-out proposal. It is fully contingent on LH Group, AY, TK, and others not growing, and LO growing immensely. A ton of money was poured recently into WAW (new terminal, new train station, etc), WMI, and LCJ (new airport would be between Warsaw and Lodz), and looking at Google Maps there seems to be some room to grow.
Hoya Saxa!!
 
UpNAWAy
Posts: 518
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:42 pm

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:52 pm

enzedder wrote:
more a pipe dream of their more and more autocratic government.

cheers enzedder



Really, Poland is now one of the most free places on the planet.
 
klakzky123
Posts: 653
Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2016 4:05 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:56 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
IST ... same concept, almost completed.... and an airline with the right fleet hubbed there.
Interesting corollary ... admission to Shengen is more important to IST than Turkey joining the EU (the former is possible, the latter unlikely).


The former isn't likely either. Turkey still hasn't gotten Schengen visa free travel for Turkish citizens. There's no way they'll get actual entry into Schengen. I'm not even sure you can join Schengen without implementing most of the EU Single Market (I think the Swiss have the most limited implementation of the Single Market and even their implementation is quite extensive).

In order to get into Schengen without joining the EU, they'd probably need full single market membership and with the whole anti-immigrant fervor in Europe, there's zero chance of that happening. The best Turkey can hope for is visa-free access to Schengen and vice versa.
 
BestWestern
Posts: 8313
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2000 8:46 pm

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:07 pm

More likely Exeter will get the go ahead first.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
raylee67
Posts: 687
Joined: Mon Oct 24, 2011 11:06 pm

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:25 pm

We have DXB, DOH, AUH, HEL and IST basically here to entirely serve this Asia-Europe connection function already. And also SU is entering the market in full force utilizing SVO. How many more do we need?
319/20/21 332/33 342/43/45 351 388 707 717 732/36/3G/38/39 74R/42/43/44/4E/48 757 762/63 772/7L/73/7W 788/89 D10 M80 135/40/45 175/90 DH1/4 CRJ/R7 L10
AY LH OU SR BA FI
AA DL UA NW AC CP WS FL NK PD
CI NH SQ KA CX JL BR OZ TG KE CA CZ NZ JQ RS
 
ORDfan
Posts: 548
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2007 6:02 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:42 pm

rlwynn wrote:
I do not get this hub to Asia from Europe thing. Why does there need to be a hub to Asia when you can get to almost anywhere in Asia from almost anywhere in Europe.


Amen... I could not agree more. Even smaller Euro capitals, like ZAG, are getting their own direct flights now to ME and Asia. In fact, I just read that ICN-ZAG is now one of KE's best performing European routes (cabin occupancy). So why does Central Europe need another mega-hub exactly?

Don't get me wrong, I love visiting and traveling to Poland, and I have an affinity for LOT based on years of flying with them. But I have to agree with many posters that this seems like some old-fashioned, political jockeying by the government, rather than something born out of necessity.
 
jmmadrid
Posts: 341
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:00 pm

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:03 pm

The problem is that we are seeing things black and white (what LOT and Warsaw are now, vs. the super ambitious 100 million passenger plan). If we also look at LOT's discreet order book, it makes the whole thing unbelievable. LOT should start growing steadily, ordering more planes, adding new destinations, creating a strong hub, (even at midnight if Chopin is congested), and THEN we would start believing it.

I'd much prefer transiting through Warsaw rather than through IST, DXB, DOH or AUH.
 
mxaxai
Posts: 1091
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:17 pm

lightsaber wrote:
There are billions of people in Asia clawing to enter the middle class. Travelers want to travel when they desire (usually while sleeping during the flight).

There is unmet demand as the ME3 growth shows. Air travel Europe to Asia should double over the next 20 years.

The majority of that growth will be domestic or regional, just as it has been in the past. Hence why narrowbodies have so much higher production rates.
Traffic also tends to concentrate on a few large destinations. Most of the ME3 destinations in Europe are already well served by other long-haul carriers. Especially those where they use the large equipment to. There are exceptions, e. g. HAM or BHX, but few.
lightsaber wrote:
The era of bridge hubbing (two or more connections) is coming to a close. Only the most populous cities in Asia have good connections. That leaves a large number of high population cities. e.g. South Philippines, South Japan, Eastern China, Vietnam, Cambodia, China North of Beijing and most of Russia has bad connections.

There is unmet demand. As I said before, I do not understand this need to deny there is a market which means outsourcing.

Lightsaber

Several of those areas are either sparsely populated (Russia east of Moscow, parts of China) or too poor to spend much on travel (Cambodia, Vietnam, Phillipines). Several European legacies have attempted to serve secondary Chinese and Russian destinations, often struggling to make a profit. Meanwhile, fares between China and the US are extremely low: I can get a flight tomorrow (!) ORD-PEK, return next week, for as little as US$ 550, or BOS-PVG for US$ 650.
That doesn't look like a huge untapped market to me.
 
lhrsfosyd
Posts: 209
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 4:57 pm

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:42 pm

Another vanity project triggered by national pride rather than a business case, reminds me of that airport near Madrid that never saw a single aircraft.

LO should focus on connecting North America/Western Europe with first and second tier Eastern European/Central Asian cities and for that they do not need a new airport.

Perhaps they can add HKG and PVG but there's no money to be made for a little niche carrier outside major Asian financial hubs.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 17910
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:42 pm

We will find out if there is demand for transfer traffic to Asia. Poland needs a new airport, so the first stage could just be for local O&D.

I perceive see many routes we're Planning 2P won't work and a hub is needed.

As I've noted many times before, the way to defeat the ME3 is to bypass them. One way is a better located and better timed hub (for certain destinations).

Congratulations to Poland for thinking ahead.

Does anyone have a list of Poland's current air service rights?

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 2774
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:50 pm

lhrsfosyd wrote:
Another vanity project triggered by national pride rather than a business case, reminds me of that airport near Madrid that never saw a single aircraft.


Ciudad Real Airport is anything but "near" Madrid. It's almost 200km away from central Madrid. From Warsaw that's like building an airport in Lublin or Lodz and call it an airport for Warsaw. 200km is the distance between Indy and Cincinnati, or Philly to Baltimore; and is further than Philly to Manhattan.

The distance between the proposed airport to central Warsaw (45km) is more comparable to MXP to Milan (~50km). Yes, if they don't close down WAW or WMI, then the new airport would be wasted (like MXP), but if they do, then it's just one of those airport that are far from the city, but with a lot more space to expand.

Ultimately, yes, it's ambitious, and yes, it has white elephant written all over it. But for an aviation market to take the next step, they have to start somewhere. Anyone thought 15 years ago that EK would be as big as they are right now?
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
B777LRF
Posts: 2460
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 4:23 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:09 pm

rlwynn wrote:
I do not get this hub to Asia from Europe thing. Why does there need to be a hub to Asia when you can get to almost anywhere in Asia from almost anywhere in Europe.


In reality there's but a large handful to European airports offering direct services to large parts of Asia; BA's coverage is abysmal and many smaller legacies also only serve a few destinations. Same in the opposite direction. So unless you live near HEL, FRA, AMS, CDG, LHR or MUC, you're pretty much looking at a connection anyway. Could be in Europe, could be in Asia, but if you're going from e.g. Birmingham, Dusseldorf, Marseilles, Copenhagen or Barcelona to e.g. Osaka, Taipei, Manila or Jakarta, you're going to have to connect somewhere.
Signature. You just read one.
 
User avatar
HELyes
Posts: 1637
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 4:26 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:12 pm

Bricktop wrote:
How much time is saved if you have weather issues? (same for HEL I would say)


The weather seldom is any big issue for the airports in Northern Europe, we are prepared for winters up here, I assume in Poland as well. In HEL the major delays because of weather are rare, the last time HEL was closed because of the weather was in 2003, the closure lasted for half an hour.
Last edited by HELyes on Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
holcakker
Posts: 116
Joined: Tue Sep 26, 2017 11:47 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:24 pm

The polish government wants to chase all operators away from WAW/WMI to protect state owned LOT. It would include Ryanair, Ryanair Sun, Wizz, Enter Air, Small Planet, Travel Service etc etc (which are basing another 20+ aircraft in Warsaw beyond the 62 a/c LOT currently operates - not all from WAW though). Wizz itself will have 8 A321s based there from March which generates siginificant traffic yet the government wants everyone out to Radom, Lodz, Lublin or a new airport, they don't care as long as LOT can survive. The state company operating WAW is blocking basically all developments in WMI (being an owner of 25% there as well), FR already compained to EU and even offered financial contribution (though the offer was more of a joke but still).
Building a new airport and move everyone at once to maintain a level field was still better than forcing competition out of WAW to give a chance to LOT. LOT nearly went bust for over-expansion a few years ago, survived on state money and narrowly avoided the fate of Malev. Got the chance to re-structure (instead of liquidation and re-paying illegal state aid) eventually which they did but now they want to do the same again a few years later. They more long-haul aircraft they need, leasing them out an even opened a base in BUD offering longhaul (with a B-787 on paper) but already developed a reputation in Hungary for lousy customer care and operating cramped wet-leased A-330 (Air Europe) and B-767 (EuroAtlantic) instead of the state-of-the-art 787 advertised. Not a good start to build a hub there (rumor says they want to base short-haul a/c in BUD as well to feed long-haul).
Airport-related state investments are always happening very slowly in Poland. The country did not have a single CAT III runway until 2018 despite having 10+ commercial airports with frequent low-visibility and some 40 million citizens. Even the revolutionary CAT III ILS in WAW could not be used for ~ a year after it was completed as the authorities did not appove it for being "too dangerous"... The state agency (PANSA) for ATC and navigation services is still ran as a communist era organization with serious "manana" approach to all airport issues. E.g. now there is no ILS available at all in Poznan (1.8 mio pax in 2017) for 5 months already due to construction (estimated deadline is October, possibly November which is already serious fog-time in Poland). The ILS/approach lights of Katowice damaged by the Air Europa B-737 nearly crashed in 2007 were not repaired for more than a year. WMI even bought themselves an ILS to fight low-visibility but it was not approved by PANSA as "this type of ILS was not operated in the country before". If they will be a part of building the new airport Finnair has nothing to fear of this new hub to Asia for another 30 years. :-)
 
User avatar
holcakker
Posts: 116
Joined: Tue Sep 26, 2017 11:47 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:33 pm

HELyes wrote:
The weather seldom is any big issue for the airports in Northern Europe, we are prepared for winters up here.

Except for the 20-30 commercial airports operated with low-category (CAT I-II) ILS in Scandinavia versus the frequent fog happening (like NYO, MMX, TRF, KRS, SVG, TKU, HAU, AES, TRD, VXO, TOS, basically all the places except Helsinki, Stockholm-Arlanda and Oslo). You might excel in snow cleaning and de-icing (hands down) but that's not everything unfortunately.
 
User avatar
LAXdenizen
Posts: 46
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 6:46 pm

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:41 pm

This proposal is to capture the Chinese tourists. Eastern Europe has not reaped the benefits/ onslaught of Chinese tourism money currently being spread through Western Europe.
 
User avatar
HELyes
Posts: 1637
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 4:26 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:48 pm

holcakker wrote:
HELyes wrote:
The weather seldom is any big issue for the airports in Northern Europe, we are prepared for winters up here.

Except for the 20-30 commercial airports operated with low-category (CAT I-II) ILS in Scandinavia versus the frequent fog happening (like NYO, MMX, TRF, KRS, SVG, TKU, HAU, AES, TRD, VXO, TOS, basically all the places except Helsinki, Stockholm-Arlanda and Oslo). You might excel in snow cleaning and de-icing (hands down) but that's not everything unfortunately.


You are right but as you said the hubs like HEL ARN OSL seldom have these problems, relevant to the Europe-Asia connections.
 
SurlyBonds
Posts: 338
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:24 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:16 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
lhrsfosyd wrote:
Another vanity project triggered by national pride rather than a business case, reminds me of that airport near Madrid that never saw a single aircraft.


Ultimately, yes, it's ambitious, and yes, it has white elephant written all over it. But for an aviation market to take the next step, they have to start somewhere. Anyone thought 15 years ago that EK would be as big as they are right now?


Yes, people did. EK was a prominent carrier 15 years ago. And Dubai is near the population center of Eurasia. Poland is not. Moreover, what Dubai lacked 15 years ago was nearby competitors (AUH, DOH), only one of which, DOH, really seems to rival Dubai. WAW has plenty of nearby hubs: the obvious LHR/CDG/FRA/MUC/AMS/IST, plus ZRH, HEL, SVO.

Poland might be able to create some niche routes, in the way that Finnair has, but it will not be the next DXB.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 17910
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:32 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
lhrsfosyd wrote:
Another vanity project triggered by national pride rather than a business case, reminds me of that airport near Madrid that never saw a single aircraft.


Ciudad Real Airport is anything but "near" Madrid. It's almost 200km away from central Madrid. From Warsaw that's like building an airport in Lublin or Lodz and call it an airport for Warsaw. 200km is the distance between Indy and Cincinnati, or Philly to Baltimore; and is further than Philly to Manhattan.

The distance between the proposed airport to central Warsaw (45km) is more comparable to MXP to Milan (~50km). Yes, if they don't close down WAW or WMI, then the new airport would be wasted (like MXP), but if they do, then it's just one of those airport that are far from the city, but with a lot more space to expand.

Ultimately, yes, it's ambitious, and yes, it has white elephant written all over it. But for an aviation market to take the next step, they have to start somewhere. Anyone thought 15 years ago that EK would be as big as they are right now?

In 2003 EK shocked the world with an order for 71aircraft at Paris after severe financial trouble in 2002 (talks of A380 order cancellation).

How about EK in 1998? Before the A345 order and flights to JFK. Before the 2nd runway but talks of building it.

If the inner airport is kept open, this is another Mirabel. If not, it should work.

This is an opportunity to put Warsaw on the map a la Singapore, Hong Kong, or Dubai.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
SRQLOT
Posts: 319
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:05 pm

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:55 pm

holcakker wrote:
The polish government wants to chase all operators away from WAW/WMI to protect state owned LOT. It would include Ryanair, Ryanair Sun, Wizz, Enter Air, Small Planet, Travel Service etc etc (which are basing another 20+ aircraft in Warsaw beyond the 62 a/c LOT currently operates - not all from WAW though). Wizz itself will have 8 A321s based there from March which generates siginificant traffic yet the government wants everyone out to Radom, Lodz, Lublin or a new airport, they don't care as long as LOT can survive. The state company operating WAW is blocking basically all developments in WMI (being an owner of 25% there as well), FR already compained to EU and even offered financial contribution (though the offer was more of a joke but still).
Building a new airport and move everyone at once to maintain a level field was still better than forcing competition out of WAW to give a chance to LOT. LOT nearly went bust for over-expansion a few years ago, survived on state money and narrowly avoided the fate of Malev. Got the chance to re-structure (instead of liquidation and re-paying illegal state aid) eventually which they did but now they want to do the same again a few years later. They more long-haul aircraft they need, leasing them out an even opened a base in BUD offering longhaul (with a B-787 on paper) but already developed a reputation in Hungary for lousy customer care and operating cramped wet-leased A-330 (Air Europe) and B-767 (EuroAtlantic) instead of the state-of-the-art 787 advertised. Not a good start to build a hub there (rumor says they want to base short-haul a/c in BUD as well to feed long-haul).
Airport-related state investments are always happening very slowly in Poland. The country did not have a single CAT III runway until 2018 despite having 10+ commercial airports with frequent low-visibility and some 40 million citizens. Even the revolutionary CAT III ILS in WAW could not be used for ~ a year after it was completed as the authorities did not appove it for being "too dangerous"... The state agency (PANSA) for ATC and navigation services is still ran as a communist era organization with serious "manana" approach to all airport issues. E.g. now there is no ILS available at all in Poznan (1.8 mio pax in 2017) for 5 months already due to construction (estimated deadline is October, possibly November which is already serious fog-time in Poland). The ILS/approach lights of Katowice damaged by the Air Europa B-737 nearly crashed in 2007 were not repaired for more than a year. WMI even bought themselves an ILS to fight low-visibility but it was not approved by PANSA as "this type of ILS was not operated in the country before". If they will be a part of building the new airport Finnair has nothing to fear of this new hub to Asia for another 30 years. :-)


Well few things. First is yes PPL wants all low cost and LLC carriers to be based at Radom so WAW can get more room for all mainline carriers and widebody aircraft. Problem with WMI is that Ryanair is paying couple of Zlotych compared to what other airlines would have to pay around 40Zlotych, so no other airline will have a chance against Ryanair. There is no reason to expand WMI for the benefit of one airline, and yes FR wanted to help WMI in form of a financial loan (a joke).

LOT got in trouble because they held on to 767s for too long, not upgrading the interior, the 787 was years late, high fuel prices,and the economy around the world basically crashing. LOT received a state loan that was approved by the EU in exchange for LOT cutting routes, that also hurt. Other airlines also received gov sponsored loans, or are receiving loans, in the US airlines went thru bankruptcy protection and started fresh from debt so why LOT couldn't???

RR engine issues. Yes it is hurting LOT and aircraft substitutions had to happen. I think BUD is still happy to have the routes available, and hopefully soon the service will improve. LOT had to deal with aircraft substitution out of WAW too.

Airport issues are probably because nobody really expected for aviation in Poland to grow so much so fast.

I wish WAW would be expended. Remove one runway and build another terminal, if anything build another parallel runway as close as possible for emergencies.
LO LH CL BA AZ WN UA DL AA B6 NK
WAW KRK FRA LGW FCO ORD MDW LAS DFW ATL RDU BNA BHM BOS DTW FLL MCO RSW TPA SRQ
717 737-300/700/800/900/MAX8 747-400 757-200/300 767-300 787-8 319 320 321 330-300 MD-90 BAE146 CRJ900 Q400 E195 Piper Archer Cessna 152
 
davidjohnson6
Posts: 336
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2016 10:10 pm

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:34 pm

It is perhaps worth mentioning that a megahub has geography on its side for flights between Europe and North Asia / China in a way that IST and DXB simply do not (assuming Russia gives overfly rights). There is likely also long term to be a greater demand for non-LCC flights between the rest of Europe and Warsaw than there is to Helsinki. Unlike Helsinki, Warsaw also has sizeable population in all directions.

This may all be pie-in-the-sky, but the geography behind a WAW super hub for Europe to North Asia / China is compelling.
 
User avatar
chunhimlai
Posts: 444
Joined: Wed Jun 03, 2015 11:03 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:44 pm

To be honest a 30km2 size airport in not so large when compared to Greenfield airport in China/USA/India
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 17910
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:21 am

Interesting analogy:
[i]Since 2012, more seat growth has come from new airport pairs than from pre-existing routes[i]
Since 2012, more seat growth has come from new airport pairs than from pre-existing routes

davidjohnson6 wrote:
It is perhaps worth mentioning that a megahub has geography on its side for flights between Europe and North Asia / China in a way that IST and DXB simply do not (assuming Russia gives overfly rights). There is likely also long term to be a greater demand for non-LCC flights between the rest of Europe and Warsaw than there is to Helsinki. Unlike Helsinki, Warsaw also has sizeable population in all directions.

This may all be pie-in-the-sky, but the geography behind a WAW super hub for Europe to North Asia / China is compelling.

I think there needs to be a Europe to North Asia hub.

mad-waw-ctu is 4,970nm
jmad-dxb-ctu is 5,638nm or 568nm longer. That is 90 minutes more crew pay, fuel, and costs on the aircraft (e.g., maintenance based on hours).

There is huge potential here. MAD-WAW-NRT is 1,482nm shorter than via Dubai. In other words, WAW, if a well setup hub with banks a la DXB, should be able to take over Europe to North Asia (China, Korea, and Japan as well as a few others).

Go to www.gcmap.com and compare any route you fell like.
What surprised me is MAD-DXB-BKK is only 92nm shorter than via WAW. So there is a good portion of SE ASIA in contention too.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
User avatar
TWA772LR
Posts: 6801
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2011 6:12 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:46 am

lightsaber wrote:
The era of bridge hubbing (two or more connections) is coming to a close.

Lightsaber

I normally dont disagree with you, but here i do. Bridge hubbing is still alive and well. Until places like Fresno, Alice Springs and Wuhan start getting connected to hubs not within their country/region, then the need for bridge hubbing will remain. In fact it's Star Alliances stated goal of connecting every city on Earth with 2 stops or less.
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
avier
Posts: 897
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:38 pm

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:18 am

Poland though in Eastern Europe, they still much up north and very close to the big hubs like Germany, etc.

An eastern Europe country like Bulgaria/Romania/Hungary more geographically closer to IST would be ideal for bridging Asia to Europe as that would eliminate a lot of the back-tracking by say flying all the way up to Poland or Germany from Asia and then having to fly back down to the many smaller Eastern and south eastern countries in the continent.

So yes, this doesn't sound very realistic. I rather feel Hungary has a better chance at bridging the two continents and hope WizzAir can find suitable airline partners for such an arrangement.

The best would however be Bulgaria/Greece for Asia-Europe connections, but they don't have such a robust economy or airline to support such an arrangement.
 
User avatar
Lilienthal
Posts: 135
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 11:47 pm

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:52 am

LAXdenizen wrote:
This proposal is to capture the Chinese tourists. Eastern Europe has not reaped the benefits/ onslaught of Chinese tourism money currently being spread through Western Europe.



I'd love to see the business plan that justifies building a major airport to capture Chinese tourism. Air China (4/7, A332) and LOT (3/7, B788/9) are both flying to Beijing from WAW, and that's it... Not really an indication for a lot of demand from China.
 
ExpatVet
Posts: 101
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2018 4:35 am

Re: Bloomberg: Poland Wants Its Planned Airport to Be a European Gateway to Asia

Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:27 am

avier wrote:
Poland though in Eastern Europe, they still much up north and very close to the big hubs like Germany, etc.

So yes, this doesn't sound very realistic. I rather feel Hungary has a better chance at bridging the two continents and hope WizzAir can find suitable airline partners for such an arrangement. .


That would be great for me, but BUD airport still has work to do to come up to WAW. It's going to need some serious expansions, at peak times it's not good there.
L101, 733/4/5/8, 741/2/3 (never managed 744!), MD 80/2/3/8/90, MD11, DHC8/3/Q4, E170, E195, 757, 77W, 763/4, Travel Air 2000. A300/310, A319/320/321, A333, ATR-72, probably a few others I forget. Passenger, not pilot, alas! BUD based.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos