Breaking news on Bloomberg.

Early stage talks for a possible take over of Etihad airline business by Emirates. Etihad would keep its maintenance business.

More to follow.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... st-airline

Link please.

There is much speculation on this, little fact.

Will never happen.

lightsaber wrote:

Link please. There is much speculation on this, little fact.

Edited.

This is just preliminary, so talks/deal can break down and both parties can walk away. Finally, rulers have to give their blessing (which may be part of business decision and part of an ego decision).

We have long prophesied on here of a merger between EK & EY. Lets see what happens.

Would be a real shame for an airline to go totally bust after a couple big moves by the previous CEO.

andrej wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Link please. There is much speculation on this, little fact.

Edited.

This is just preliminary, so talks/deal can break down and both parties can walk away. Finally, rulers have to give their blessing (which may be part of business decision and part of an ego decision).

More ego then business.....

danj555 wrote:

We have long prophesied on here of a merger between EK & EY. Lets see what happens.

Would be a real shame for an airline to go totally bust after a couple big moves by the previous CEO.

Indeed we have. I don't feel it's a case of EY going bust to merge with EK but the logical outcome of when DWC opens that'll only be 57 miles away from AUH.

Biggest headwind is this 150+ very costly aircraft on order that it doesn’t want, and can’t cancel.

Makes sense - there isnt room for the two of them once DWC is built.

With oil @ $80, yields are biting. FZ just reported loss. Internal comms within EK are brooding over need for cost control due $ & oil.

This might just be the right time. The flip side of $80 oil is AUH coffers fuller for a quicker move to DWC (EWC?).

It makes too much sense that even the local egos might fold...I say might.

What about the new terminal at AUH?

How many times has this nonsense surfaced up? Hope there is some substance to the news this time.

Even if they do merge, thats good. No need for four major carriers in one very small country.

xwb777 wrote:

What about the new terminal at AUH?

It's not like by merging they are moving out of AUH. They can still use their AUH facilities.

avier wrote:

xwb777 wrote:

What about the new terminal at AUH?

It's not like by merging they are moving out of AUH. They can still use their AUH facilities.

There is no room to grow in DXB. DWC is still far from reasonable completion status - for FlyDubai, other LLCs, and cargo it is OK. AUH is very close to completion, and frankly speaking the old terminal (from which Etihad operates) is horrible. There is no room, facilities are full. The new terminal is long overdue.

I don't think that if this takeover will realise, AUH operations will not cease. AUH has its status and importance for many routes to operate. However there will be cost reduction and route elimination for sure.

andrej wrote:

I don't think that if this takeover will realise, AUH operations will not cease. AUH has its status and importance for many routes to operate. However there will be cost reduction and route elimination for sure.

That is for sure AUH ops will remain. I don't know why some assume that if the two merge, everything will be shifted to a single hub - DXB or DWC as a one hub operation.

AUH will always remain atleast for some limited ops. The Abu Dhabi rulers won't let vital connections be lost out.

AirbusA322 wrote:

Biggest headwind is this 150+ very costly aircraft on order that it doesn’t want, and can’t cancel.

These can be cancelled, but very likely only at high cost: penalties and/or forfeiting downpayments.

A 'merged' EK/EY could use the 787s, probably the 777X's too, but not the A350s and A32x's.

EY on its own can use at least a large part of the 787s, the A35k's and A32x's on order. The 777X order can probably be cancelled. Seems to be the less expensive option initially, although on the long term this could be different.

This just makes too much sense to not happen eventually.

And yeah, concentrate operations in DWC, new terminal may be a mistake in retrospect...Though a high speed rail line from AUH to Dubai could easily make it viable as a secondary option for Dubai as well. That could future proof capacity for decades.

xwb777 wrote:

What about the new terminal at AUH?

Maybe the new "royal terminal" or the biggest general aviation terminal of all times..... who knows

Hahahaha what's going to happen to the new terminal in AUH? The next Mirabel? ME3 largesse at it's finest.

This seems like a great idea. AUH as a reliever hub for DXB. Still can capture the high revenue O/D and maximize connections. EK/EY/FZ could each gain from the other.

Never say never. My take on it is:
Abu Dhabi came to Dubai's financial rescue not long ago and has a lot of clout in Dubai.
The ruling families are related.
DWC is more or less in the middle (half way between Dubai and Abu Dhabi).
I could see EK/EY codesharing with total interchangeability a la AF/KL, BA/IB and in time an elimination of duplicate routes.

TC957 wrote:

danj555 wrote:

We have long prophesied on here of a merger between EK & EY. Lets see what happens.

Would be a real shame for an airline to go totally bust after a couple big moves by the previous CEO.

Indeed we have. I don't feel it's a case of EY going bust to merge with EK but the logical outcome of when DWC opens that'll only be 57 miles away from AUH.

I always thought DWC should have been closer to the boarder of the two and add a few runways on the Abu-Dhabi side to promote even better connectivity.

There is that large (probably multi-million) oil facility. Is there really anything else preventing this? Perhaps just build HS rail between the two airports?

Meh, EY was so poorly managed financially, it is doomed.

Lightsaber

They should also acquire Air Arabia then and rebrand the four merged carriers - EK EY FZ G9 - into one as UAE : United Airlines of Emirates.

How many planes will EK have parked during the runway resurfacing? It's got to bight. Many routes reduced. EK and EY working closer together makes sense particularly with QR striding ahead as it is.

Watch for EY 350 to lots of 321LR if merger

avier wrote:

They should also acquire Air Arabia then and rebrand the four merged carriers - EK EY FZ G9 - into one as UAE : United Airlines of Emirates.

Pan Emirates

Interesting. Given the state of things at EY, this really seems like a the best option.

Since DXB is maxed out of capacity, EK should operate a hub of similar size in AUH. They could run a split hub the same way LH does at FRA and MUC.

... I think this could well be time to acknowledge that the 'Swissair model' (of wanting to be big too quickly by purchasing stake in all sorts of troubled airlines) doesn't exactly work. Sometimes big isn't exactly best.

Does EY operate any routes not operated by EK from UAE?

Split hub will not be the end game. TK and it’s mega hub are one of the threats that needs to be tackled looking fwd 20-30 years.

The synergies are wasted by splitting two so close - this is a Emirates World Central vision - if it happens.

If it happens, the chances of a high speed rail link DXB-DWC-AUH being built ASAP are extremely high.

EY have a lot of metal on order.... I wonder if such a deal would (should it happen) have an impact on the EK 787-10 commitment (don't think this has been firmed yet?)

Got to be one of the worst kept “secrets” in industry. Been talked about for some time with EY crew already going over to EK.

The theories on this thread are certainly interesting... but likely remain fantasy.

https://m.khaleejtimes.com/business/avi ... -of-merger

Antarius wrote:

I wouldn't put it past having a DXB-AUH shuttle either. Before the embargo, EK was flying an a380 to DOH.

Oh come off it.

DOH is different as it can’t be reached in the same way Dubai can be reached from Abu Dhabi.

Have you ever been there? Do you know anything about the geography there? It's literally a 40 minute drive from one city to the other. There was only an A380 to DOH because there was literally no way to drive to Doha from the UAE and it was much farther.

Antarius wrote:

AUH will likely maintain key routes for business and O&D traffic. connecting traffic would be continued to be funneled through DXB.

I wouldn't put it past having a DXB-AUH shuttle either. Before the embargo, EK was flying an a380 to DOH.

Totally rubbish and will not happen

https://gulfnews.com/business/aviation/ ... -1.2280734

It would be the mother of all mergers .

Possibly both brands ands hubs could remain separate and all back functions merged for cost savings etc

worldranger wrote:

Split hub will not be the end game. TK and it’s mega hub are one of the threats that needs to be tackled looking fwd 20-30 years.

The synergies are wasted by splitting two so close - this is a Emirates World Central vision - if it happens.

Agreed. But how?

TK's new hub should be felt next year. The current IST is too crowded to form good hub waves. The new IST will allow far better competition.

EK and EY need to merge at one airport separated by minutes, not a long train. But how?

Lightsaber

Spokesmen from both Emirates and Etihad have officially denied this.

flyjay123 wrote:

avier wrote:

They should also acquire Air Arabia then and rebrand the four merged carriers - EK EY FZ G9 - into one as UAE : United Airlines of Emirates.

Pan Emirates

Pan Em? It'll never fly :p

I would like to know Sir Tim Clark thoughts about this.

ExDubai wrote:

xwb777 wrote:

What about the new terminal at AUH?

Maybe the new "royal terminal" or the biggest general aviation terminal of all times..... who knows

neomax wrote:

Spokesmen from both Emirates and Etihad have officially denied this.

Would you ever imagine they'd confirm ???

frigatebird wrote:

AirbusA322 wrote:

Biggest headwind is this 150+ very costly aircraft on order that it doesn’t want, and can’t cancel.

These can be cancelled, but very likely only at high cost: penalties and/or forfeiting downpayments.

A 'merged' EK/EY could use the 787s, probably the 777X's too, but not the A350s and A32x's.

EY on its own can use at least a large part of the 787s, the A35k's and A32x's on order. The 777X order can probably be cancelled. Seems to be the less expensive option initially, although on the long term this could be different.

EK could also just take the AUH ops and leave the broken mess behind.

xwb777 wrote:

I would like to know Sir Tim Clark thoughts about this.

Here you go:

https://www.arabianbusiness.com/transpo ... areholders

lightsaber wrote:

worldranger wrote:

Split hub will not be the end game. TK and it’s mega hub are one of the threats that needs to be tackled looking fwd 20-30 years.

The synergies are wasted by splitting two so close - this is a Emirates World Central vision - if it happens.

Agreed. But how?

TK's new hub should be felt next year. The current IST is too crowded to form good hub waves. The new IST will allow far better competition.

EK and EY need to merge at one airport separated by minutes, not a long train. But how?

Lightsaber

Actually, running dual hub of DXB and AUH is possible even without the High speed rail link. EK and EY already run multiple daily flights to a lot of destinations on both east and west. After the merger, it will probably be majority. So they can plan banks/waves in such timings to keep 1 daily each from each hubs for O&D traffic and plan the rest through either hub to better utilize the slots/runways. This way, O&D pax get their preferred timing flights and the connecting pax mostly don't care through which hub they change the aircraft assuming the duty free shops, lounges and restaurants are similar in offering. Although, given the benefit of the merger as well as the wealth of the sheikhs, they can afford to have a 30 minutes high speed rail link built in a couple of years.

The critical mass is there for a dual hub . The UAE could make it work .

Traffic between AUH and DXB can be a nightmare and they’re both well established already

Dual hub is suboptimal but as a mid-term outcome prior to consolidation at DWC it would be doable.

EY runs frequencies to some destinations - CGK, MEL, PER, BOM, DEL, CDG, FRA for example - that EK could upgauge to all-A380 and then shift some 77W ops from DXB to AUH.

Also and in the alternative, DXB has some capacity for EK to build a 4th/5th hub wave: outside of EK's 3-wave current structure, there must be some slack for more flights.

Granted, these additional hub waves would have suboptimal timing. But the system-wide revenue impact of sub-optimal hub waves versus massive EY losses should favor the former. At the very least the combined airline would shift time-allocation of pax from high to low-yielding waves. Meanwhile, AUH O&D traffic would be right-sized and/or substituted for DXB arrival.