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Zoedyn
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China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:08 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... s-airlines

After years of heated debates and long delays, eventually, the world’s longest high-speed rail network from mainland China will be extending to downtown Hong Kong tomorrow on Sept. 23, providing direct connectivity to 44 mainland destinations

Meanwhile, 11 of Cathay Pacific Airways’ more than 20 mainland destinations will overlap with the high-speed rail

Image

Will the HSR pose a serious threat to HK carriers for pax traffic to the mainland, esp on shorthaul routes within a 1,000 km range? Or reversely, will the HSR prove to be a colossal white elephant? Officials and rail/airline industry observers will surely keep a close watch
Last edited by Zoedyn on Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
tphuang
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:13 pm

Looks like it will be the case for some cities at least. Although high speed rail hasn’t really hurt pek to sha. I definitely won’t be taking train for pek to hkg though.
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:13 pm

Generally if its within 3 hours then high speed rail wins. The city centre to city centre is hard to beat.

Beyond that flying still tends to win as the fastest option.
 
WorldFlier
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:15 pm

Zoedyn wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-09-17/china-s-bullet-trains-are-coming-for-hong-kong-s-airlines

After years of heated debates and long delays, eventually, the world’s longest high-speed rail network from mainland China will be extending to downtown Hong Kong tomorrow on Sept. 23, providing direct connectivity to 44 mainland destinations

Meanwhile, 11 of Cathay Pacific Airways’ more than 20 mainland destinations will overlap with the high-speed rail

Image

Will the HSR pose a serious threat to HK carriers for pax traffic to the mainland, esp on shorthaul routes within a 1,000 km range? Or reversely, will the HSR prove to be a colossal white elephant? Officials and rail/airline industry observers will surely keep a close watch


Does the Beijing travel time include the at least 45 minutes to city center from the Airport, and god forbid you hit traffic.

I think HSR is clearly a winner. Imagine if the US had HSR along I-95...
 
usssla
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:39 pm

WorldFlier wrote:
Zoedyn wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-09-17/china-s-bullet-trains-are-coming-for-hong-kong-s-airlines

After years of heated debates and long delays, eventually, the world’s longest high-speed rail network from mainland China will be extending to downtown Hong Kong tomorrow on Sept. 23, providing direct connectivity to 44 mainland destinations

Meanwhile, 11 of Cathay Pacific Airways’ more than 20 mainland destinations will overlap with the high-speed rail

Image

Will the HSR pose a serious threat to HK carriers for pax traffic to the mainland, esp on shorthaul routes within a 1,000 km range? Or reversely, will the HSR prove to be a colossal white elephant? Officials and rail/airline industry observers will surely keep a close watch


Does the Beijing travel time include the at least 45 minutes to city center from the Airport, and god forbid you hit traffic.

I think HSR is clearly a winner. Imagine if the US had HSR along I-95...


It includes. Normally it causes around 3.5hr from Hong Kong to Beijing for plane.
I will take plane to Beijing for sure.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:48 pm

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
Generally if its within 3 hours then high speed rail wins. The city centre to city centre is hard to beat.

Beyond that flying still tends to win as the fastest option.


The "rule of thumb" in Japan is 4 hours. Within 4 hours it's usually advantage to Shinkansen (HSR), over 4 and planes gradually takes over in terms of train-plane shares.

Zoedyn wrote:
Will the HSR pose a serious threat to HK carriers for pax traffic to the mainland, esp on shorthaul routes within a 1,000 km range? Or reversely, will the HSR prove to be a colossal white elephant? Officials and rail/airline industry observers will surely keep a close watch


In some sense, yes, shorter-haul flights are going to be affected.

On the other hand, the frequencies out of HKG to anywhere outside of Shanghai and Beijing is almost a joke anyway. Take Changsha, right now there's only a single daily 320 on KA. Wuhan is only slightly better - 12/wk 320 on KA plus a daily 738 on CZ. Same can be said for flights to places like NNG, KWL, or ZHA (All low frequency). Quite frankly, XMN is the only airport that's somewhat 'shorthaul" and has relatively high frequency (4 daily on KA and 2 daily on MF), but trains along the Ha(ngzhou)-Fu(zhou)-Shen(zhen) HSR are slow. 5 hrs between Shenzhen and Fuzhou is not going to cut it.

Ultimately, to really see where the train vs. plane stand, just look at SZX and its frequency. SZX-SHA and SZX-PEK are as busy as ever, as is CAN-SHA and CAN-PEK. With city pair like HKG-WUH or HKG-CSX not all that busy to begin with, the "threat" is seriously minimal.
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Redwood839
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:08 pm

I have an upcoming trip where I need to get to HKG to PEK to reposition for a flight. I was well aware of the HSR being launched and decided against it because well, it's not really high speed. It takes about 9 hours to get with the trains launching in September and there's only one departure from HKG to PEK. The price was $150USD to fly and $149 for train, so yeah.. Maybe if it was like uber fast and cheaper.
 
FSflyer899
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:20 pm

Does that include the constant delays by China's ATC for unknown or "military" reasons? I have heard and believe that's a wide known issue that flights could be delayed for hours, which probably less likely for trains.
 
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zeke
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:27 pm

FSflyer899 wrote:
Does that include the constant delays by China's ATC for unknown or "military" reasons? I have heard and believe that's a wide known issue that flights could be delayed for hours, which probably less likely for trains.


If it’s chinese you can guarantee what is written on the box is not what you will get.
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:34 pm

Redwood839 wrote:
I have an upcoming trip where I need to get to HKG to PEK to reposition for a flight. I was well aware of the HSR being launched and decided against it because well, it's not really high speed. It takes about 9 hours to get with the trains launching in September and there's only one departure from HKG to PEK. The price was $150USD to fly and $149 for train, so yeah.. Maybe if it was like uber fast and cheaper.

Obviously the listed fares were selected to favor the train. For the same cost, it is where is the final destination (time has a value).

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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:36 pm

WorldFlier wrote:
I think HSR is clearly a winner. Imagine if the US had HSR along I-95...


Certainly beats getting packed into a CRJ/ATR/Q400, and all the airport security mess.
 
c933103
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:58 pm

It will mostly impact flights within 4 hours time by train from HKG to China but as CX have pointed out that their flights to cities in the area like CSX are predominately transit passengers so the influence will probably be small.
Amount of flights affected by ut should be in the range of single digit per day.
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c933103
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:03 pm

tphuang wrote:
Looks like it will be the case for some cities at least. Although high speed rail hasn’t really hurt pek to sha. I definitely won’t be taking train for pek to hkg though.

Last time I checked it seems like on the PEK to SHA route the HSR have transported about as much passengers as the flights between the two cities. However since travel demand in China is exploding so there are net gain in passenger for this air route too despite get taken up to almost half passengers by the the high speed train.
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Armaghman
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:19 pm

Got to also remember the frequency the plane can offer.

I agree with 3-4hr time. Remember people need to also travel to a train station, in Shanghai this is the same location as the train so not much difference in pre boarding fir either option.

Agree with posting that growth in travel means there is room for all
 
Kadish
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:10 pm

In Spain the train in the MAD-BCN route has over 50% of pax...so I guess the same would happen.
 
tphuang
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:45 pm

THe other thing that really hurts Airlines in china are the frequent delays due to smog or military exercises. Not issues that train riders have to worry about.
 
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:05 pm

Kadish wrote:
In Spain the train in the MAD-BCN route has over 50% of pax...so I guess the same would happen.

A problem is that there aren't many large cities from Hong Kong that are of a distance similar to MAD-BCN and accessible by trains. Many major Chinese cities like Chengdu/Chongqing/Beijing/Shanghai/Xian/Kunming/Qingdao/Jinan/Nanjing would be about 8-9 hours away by the trains so they won't be attractive enough to draw mass travellers onto them. It would be able to attract travellers travelling between Hong Kong and Nanning/Xiamen/Wuhan/Changsha/Zhanjiang/etc., but currently the travel demand between Hong Kong and those regions aren't particularly strong as can be seen by the number of flights between these city pairs.The key to the success of the rail connection will probably depends on the ability of attracting new visitors going to/from these region.
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tomcat
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:31 pm

Zoedyn wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-09-17/china-s-bullet-trains-are-coming-for-hong-kong-s-airlines

After years of heated debates and long delays, eventually, the world’s longest high-speed rail network from mainland China will be extending to downtown Hong Kong tomorrow on Sept. 23, providing direct connectivity to 44 mainland destinations

Meanwhile, 11 of Cathay Pacific Airways’ more than 20 mainland destinations will overlap with the high-speed rail

Image

Will the HSR pose a serious threat to HK carriers for pax traffic to the mainland, esp on shorthaul routes within a 1,000 km range? Or reversely, will the HSR prove to be a colossal white elephant? Officials and rail/airline industry observers will surely keep a close watch


In any case, I'm impressed that Hong-Kong - Beijing could be done in 9 hours by train. With an average speed of 140 mph, this is a true HSR. By comparison, western Europe if full of high speed trains but we're far from traveling in 9 hours by train from say Berlin to Madrid for which the best journey time is 19.5 hours and requires 3 connections. Well done China!
 
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:18 pm

zeke wrote:
FSflyer899 wrote:
Does that include the constant delays by China's ATC for unknown or "military" reasons? I have heard and believe that's a wide known issue that flights could be delayed for hours, which probably less likely for trains.


If it’s chinese you can guarantee what is written on the box is not what you will get.


What do you mean by that? The trains in China - any trains - are MASSIVELY on time. Actually, in my experience, Chinese railways' on time performance is better than in most of Europe.
 
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:54 pm

For longer-distance destinations like Beijing, the D-category sleeper trains, which have a capacity of up to 800 lie-flat berths per train, are often the preferred option, but those originate in either Guangzhou or Shenzhen. They will not be extended to Hong Kong, yet, but the new HSR line will make connections faster, and make the train much more time-efficient than any flight can possibly be, even though the train has a longer trip time. I would expect the rail share of the market to grow faster than the air share, and in the specific case of CX I would expect connections to drive the flights much more than O&D.
 
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:48 pm

workhorse wrote:
zeke wrote:
FSflyer899 wrote:
Does that include the constant delays by China's ATC for unknown or "military" reasons? I have heard and believe that's a wide known issue that flights could be delayed for hours, which probably less likely for trains.


If it’s chinese you can guarantee what is written on the box is not what you will get.


What do you mean by that? The trains in China - any trains - are MASSIVELY on time. Actually, in my experience, Chinese railways' on time performance is better than in most of Europe.

Very true, I've traveled on China's HSR dozens of times, from below an hour to about 5 hours, and they leave on schedule virtually all on the dot. Arrivals might sometimes be a little late but by just a miserably few percentage points which is practically negligible. So yes, speaking from considerable first-hand experience, its effectively "guaranteed that what is written on the box is what you will get", at least as far as Chinese HSR is concerned.
For air travel, I defer to the frequent flyers to/from Chinese airports.
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EChid
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:17 pm

I would actually assert that this may be beneficial to HK air travel too.

I've spoken with a few people that need to travel to mainland China for work, usually to oversee manufacturing processes and such (i.e, not directly to HKG). With the difference in quality between mainland Chinese airports vs. HKG, the popular preference, what with the new trains coming, is to land in HKG and take the highspeed out to their mainland destination the following day. I don't know if that will equate to a lot of traffic, but I suspect that there will be quite a few that transit to/from HK for their long-haul flights.

Plus, let's be honest, CX isn't in the shorthaul mainland market because it wants to be - it's not a huge moneymaker when you're surrounded by cheaper Chinese options eating into your market share - they're in it to drive people to their hub and onto longhauls. High speed trains won't change the demand for those longhauls, it just makes getting to the hub by other means more appealing.
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Kadish
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:34 pm

tomcat wrote:
Zoedyn wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-09-17/china-s-bullet-trains-are-coming-for-hong-kong-s-airlines

After years of heated debates and long delays, eventually, the world’s longest high-speed rail network from mainland China will be extending to downtown Hong Kong tomorrow on Sept. 23, providing direct connectivity to 44 mainland destinations

Meanwhile, 11 of Cathay Pacific Airways’ more than 20 mainland destinations will overlap with the high-speed rail

Image

Will the HSR pose a serious threat to HK carriers for pax traffic to the mainland, esp on shorthaul routes within a 1,000 km range? Or reversely, will the HSR prove to be a colossal white elephant? Officials and rail/airline industry observers will surely keep a close watch


In any case, I'm impressed that Hong-Kong - Beijing could be done in 9 hours by train. With an average speed of 140 mph, this is a true HSR. By comparison, western Europe if full of high speed trains but we're far from traveling in 9 hours by train from say Berlin to Madrid for which the best journey time is 19.5 hours and requires 3 connections. Well done China!


The answer to that is easy, different countries which have different rail systems n different companies that require changing trains...In Spain Sevilla to Barcelona can be reached in around 5h and the distance is around 850km..not bad at all.
 
workhorse
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Sat Sep 22, 2018 10:42 pm

neutrino wrote:
Very true, I've traveled on China's HSR dozens of times, from below an hour to about 5 hours, and they leave on schedule virtually all on the dot. Arrivals might sometimes be a little late but by just a miserably few percentage points which is practically negligible. So yes, speaking from considerable first-hand experience, its effectively "guaranteed that what is written on the box is what you will get", at least as far as Chinese HSR is concerned.


Not only HSR, the little choo-choo in remote areas of Northern Xinjiang is the same: (almost) always on time.
 
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lydh
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Sat Sep 22, 2018 10:57 pm

China's high-speed trains are ratchet, pretty sure I'd pay extra to be on a plane.
 
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mighluss
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Sat Sep 22, 2018 11:11 pm

tomcat wrote:
Berlin to Madrid for which the best journey time is 19.5 hours and requires 3 connections. Well done China!


These are different cases... as you say, you need lots of connections in Europe, and China has a single network (I think!). Plus you don't have high speed railways in South France.

South Eastern China HSR network is astonishing!
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neutrino
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Sat Sep 22, 2018 11:40 pm

workhorse wrote:
Not only HSR, the little choo-choo in remote areas of Northern Xinjiang is the same: (almost) always on time.

I know that. I'm just relating my personal experience as a somewhat frequent HSR user.
I have also used some normal and fast trains but not as much as the HSR
All types I've traveled on are generally bang on time but as my empirical evidence sampling are too small, I simply skipped mentioning them.
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neutrino
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Sat Sep 22, 2018 11:49 pm

lydh wrote:
China's high-speed trains are ratchet, pretty sure I'd pay extra to be on a plane.

Are you speaking from experience or extrapolating from hearsay?
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raylee67
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:48 am

I believe the impact is minimal. Without the HSR, already no one takes the plane to travel between Hong Kong and Guangzhou. The normal train is already doing the task. The 2-daily HKG-CAN flights by KA is solely there to cater connection passengers.

For O&D traffic, the routes that are more impacted would be those with the railway travel time of less than 4 hours, so Hong Kong - Shantou, Hong Kong - Zhanjiang, Hong Kong - Guilin, Hong Kong - Guiyang, Hong Kong - Changsha and marginally Hong Kong - Xiamen, Hong Kong - Wuhan, Hong Kong - Fuzhou and Hong Kong - Kunming.

Some of these routes may become like HKG-CAN, catering for connection traffic only, so we will see downguage or reduced frequencies. I don't see any other major routes being affected, simply because they are so far away by trains, even by HSR.


Zoedyn wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-09-17/china-s-bullet-trains-are-coming-for-hong-kong-s-airlines

After years of heated debates and long delays, eventually, the world’s longest high-speed rail network from mainland China will be extending to downtown Hong Kong tomorrow on Sept. 23, providing direct connectivity to 44 mainland destinations

Meanwhile, 11 of Cathay Pacific Airways’ more than 20 mainland destinations will overlap with the high-speed rail

Image

Will the HSR pose a serious threat to HK carriers for pax traffic to the mainland, esp on shorthaul routes within a 1,000 km range? Or reversely, will the HSR prove to be a colossal white elephant? Officials and rail/airline industry observers will surely keep a close watch


The train ticket price listed in the picture is ONE-WAY, while the plane ticket is RETURNED trip. Once you do the train ticket price x 2, taking a train is only about 20-30% cheaper, especially on the longer routes that the trains take much longer.
319/20/21 332/33 342/43/45 359/51 388 707 717 732/36/3G/38/39 74R/42/43/44/4E/48 757 762/63 772/7L/73/7W 788/89 D10 M80 135/40/45 175/90 DH1/4 CRJ/R7 L10
AY LH OU SR BA FI
AA DL UA NW AC CP WS FL NK PD
CI NH SQ KA CX JL BR OZ TG KE CA CZ NZ JQ RS
 
SCQ83
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:59 am

WorldFlier wrote:
Does the Beijing travel time include the at least 45 minutes to city center from the Airport, and god forbid you hit traffic.

I think HSR is clearly a winner. Imagine if the US had HSR along I-95...


Beijing-Hong Kong is about 1400 miles. So that is comparable to New Haven to Miami on the I-95.
 
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:02 am

I loved my HSR trip from Shanghai to Beijing! Would happily try a long distance one from Hong Kong.
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WIederling
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:44 am

neutrino wrote:
lydh wrote:
China's high-speed trains are ratchet, pretty sure I'd pay extra to be on a plane.

Are you speaking from experience or extrapolating from hearsay?


NIH, He does not have it at home. Must be bad :-)
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patrickw421
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Sun Sep 23, 2018 11:10 am

Reading from the news today, looks like another factor would be the baggage restrictions applied for the HSR. It seems like the rules (<20kg, total dimension below 130cm) have been strictly enforced today on the 1st day of operation with bags being tape measured and if your suitcase is over the limit (eg a 29 inch suitcase), they provide you another bag to put your stuff and store your suitcase until you are back in Hong Kong. It's a bit strange considering the limit is 160cm in China, allowing a 29 inch suitcase to board while it is not possible in Hong Kong.

Usually you would think train has an advantage over plane in terms of baggage, but seems not the case here and people are still better flying if they are going to short haul destinations or other ground transportation for ultra-short haul, if they need to carry a lot of stuff.
 
c933103
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Sun Sep 23, 2018 2:45 pm

patrickw421 wrote:
Reading from the news today, looks like another factor would be the baggage restrictions applied for the HSR. It seems like the rules (<20kg, total dimension below 130cm) have been strictly enforced today on the 1st day of operation with bags being tape measured and if your suitcase is over the limit (eg a 29 inch suitcase), they provide you another bag to put your stuff and store your suitcase until you are back in Hong Kong. It's a bit strange considering the limit is 160cm in China, allowing a 29 inch suitcase to board while it is not possible in Hong Kong.

Usually you would think train has an advantage over plane in terms of baggage, but seems not the case here and people are still better flying if they are going to short haul destinations or other ground transportation for ultra-short haul, if they need to carry a lot of stuff.

There are many rules and regulations that are in the book in the Chinese railway system that are never actually used or enforced, however with the operator in Hong Kong joining the system and start looking at and applying them literally, many different strange problems have been generated by it. They can probably get the system back to a working state in the future, but that would be some times before they can fix and change or adopt to all these rules.
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sincx
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Sun Sep 23, 2018 5:30 pm

c933103 wrote:
patrickw421 wrote:
Reading from the news today, looks like another factor would be the baggage restrictions applied for the HSR. It seems like the rules (<20kg, total dimension below 130cm) have been strictly enforced today on the 1st day of operation with bags being tape measured and if your suitcase is over the limit (eg a 29 inch suitcase), they provide you another bag to put your stuff and store your suitcase until you are back in Hong Kong. It's a bit strange considering the limit is 160cm in China, allowing a 29 inch suitcase to board while it is not possible in Hong Kong.

Usually you would think train has an advantage over plane in terms of baggage, but seems not the case here and people are still better flying if they are going to short haul destinations or other ground transportation for ultra-short haul, if they need to carry a lot of stuff.

There are many rules and regulations that are in the book in the Chinese railway system that are never actually used or enforced, however with the operator in Hong Kong joining the system and start looking at and applying them literally, many different strange problems have been generated by it. They can probably get the system back to a working state in the future, but that would be some times before they can fix and change or adopt to all these rules.

Yea, it seems like MTR staff is actually enforcing the written size and weight limits for baggage, where as on the mainland, the rule as applied is "if you can physically carry it on the train by yourself, you can bring it."
 
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zeke
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:13 am

The read in today’s SCMP is nothing much to rave about, people tried 6 different ways to get to downtown Guangzhou and the HSR won on time but not by that much.

Took 3:28 by HSR, $369, 3:41 by normal metro train $141, 3:43 by aircraft $1841, through train 3:44 $268, 4:00 by bus $114.9, bus/taxi 4:10 $674.

The HSR was the fastest, but not the cheapest. I don’t see it changing the way people travel much as it is more expensive than the normal train and not much faster.

They wrote that the HSR on other trips arrived late, and one service had a power outage on the train leaving passengers in the dark.

Where I see the appeal of HSR is for people who want to see China from the ground level without having to be surrounded by unpleasant rude locals. It should provide some new opportunities for tours of China.
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oldannyboy
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:41 am

Mmm. All of above is [to some extent] true. I can also see lots of people in a position to fly to HK and extend their stays to visit mainland China by taking the train. Win-win at best.
 
c933103
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:46 am

zeke wrote:
The read in today’s SCMP is nothing much to rave about, people tried 6 different ways to get to downtown Guangzhou and the HSR won on time but not by that much.

Took 3:28 by HSR, $369, 3:41 by normal metro train $141, 3:43 by aircraft $1841, through train 3:44 $268, 4:00 by bus $114.9, bus/taxi 4:10 $674.

The HSR was the fastest, but not the cheapest. I don’t see it changing the way people travel much as it is more expensive than the normal train and not much faster.

They wrote that the HSR on other trips arrived late, and one service had a power outage on the train leaving passengers in the dark.

Where I see the appeal of HSR is for people who want to see China from the ground level without having to be surrounded by unpleasant rude locals. It should provide some new opportunities for tours of China.

The key market for HSR would be beyond Guangzhou, however the frequency offered to those destinations are unbelievably little. Hope that will be improved in the future when they understand how to operate high speed trains.
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zakuivcustom
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:38 am

c933103 wrote:
zeke wrote:
The read in today’s SCMP is nothing much to rave about, people tried 6 different ways to get to downtown Guangzhou and the HSR won on time but not by that much.

Took 3:28 by HSR, $369, 3:41 by normal metro train $141, 3:43 by aircraft $1841, through train 3:44 $268, 4:00 by bus $114.9, bus/taxi 4:10 $674.

The HSR was the fastest, but not the cheapest. I don’t see it changing the way people travel much as it is more expensive than the normal train and not much faster.

They wrote that the HSR on other trips arrived late, and one service had a power outage on the train leaving passengers in the dark.

Where I see the appeal of HSR is for people who want to see China from the ground level without having to be surrounded by unpleasant rude locals. It should provide some new opportunities for tours of China.

The key market for HSR would be beyond Guangzhou, however the frequency offered to those destinations are unbelievably little. Hope that will be improved in the future when they understand how to operate high speed trains.


Indeed. The whole sale point for the HSR this whole time is for all the Siu Mings to go up to Guangzhou (sorry...can't help it, HKer will understand what I mean :scratchchin: ) when it is places like Wuhan or Shantou or Guilin where HSR really shines (Chaoshan area especially). But nope, only a handful of train goes beyond Guangzhou. To me, talk about short-sightness and the incompetence of HK govt to even "hard sell" the HSR (i.e. all I have seen is a bunch of "sales pitch" about how it is suppose to reduce time to go to Guangzhou, well, except Guangzhou South Station is in a galaxy far, far away from Liwan or Tianhe Districts).

Theoretically it can increase some tourism traffic to/from some "short mid haul" destinations in PRC (points beyond Guangzhou). Going to Guilin or even Zhangjiajie I believe is quicker via HSR. But good luck, bc younger generation are still just going to travel to South Korea or Japan or Thailand or Taiwan for leisure/city break.
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tphuang
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Mon Sep 24, 2018 12:13 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
c933103 wrote:
zeke wrote:
The read in today’s SCMP is nothing much to rave about, people tried 6 different ways to get to downtown Guangzhou and the HSR won on time but not by that much.

Took 3:28 by HSR, $369, 3:41 by normal metro train $141, 3:43 by aircraft $1841, through train 3:44 $268, 4:00 by bus $114.9, bus/taxi 4:10 $674.

The HSR was the fastest, but not the cheapest. I don’t see it changing the way people travel much as it is more expensive than the normal train and not much faster.

They wrote that the HSR on other trips arrived late, and one service had a power outage on the train leaving passengers in the dark.

Where I see the appeal of HSR is for people who want to see China from the ground level without having to be surrounded by unpleasant rude locals. It should provide some new opportunities for tours of China.

The key market for HSR would be beyond Guangzhou, however the frequency offered to those destinations are unbelievably little. Hope that will be improved in the future when they understand how to operate high speed trains.


Indeed. The whole sale point for the HSR this whole time is for all the Siu Mings to go up to Guangzhou (sorry...can't help it, HKer will understand what I mean :scratchchin: ) when it is places like Wuhan or Shantou or Guilin where HSR really shines (Chaoshan area especially). But nope, only a handful of train goes beyond Guangzhou. To me, talk about short-sightness and the incompetence of HK govt to even "hard sell" the HSR (i.e. all I have seen is a bunch of "sales pitch" about how it is suppose to reduce time to go to Guangzhou, well, except Guangzhou South Station is in a galaxy far, far away from Liwan or Tianhe Districts).

Theoretically it can increase some tourism traffic to/from some "short mid haul" destinations in PRC (points beyond Guangzhou). Going to Guilin or even Zhangjiajie I believe is quicker via HSR. But good luck, bc younger generation are still just going to travel to South Korea or Japan or Thailand or Taiwan for leisure/city break.


i think the traffic will be in the other direction. I'm not sure if this is already. If there is direct service from Shanghai or Hangzhou to HK, I could see a lot of business travellers taking it instead of air.
 
RvA
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Mon Sep 24, 2018 12:28 pm

Even PEK-HKG isn't a life changing difference. Most people will be at the airport more than an hour before hand so its actually closer to 3 hrs.
I'd prefer spending an extra 3 hrs traveling but being able to get up walk about a bit and likely sit in much more comfort (compared to economy class customers on the aircraft) on a train.
 
c933103
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Mon Sep 24, 2018 12:34 pm

tphuang wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
c933103 wrote:
The key market for HSR would be beyond Guangzhou, however the frequency offered to those destinations are unbelievably little. Hope that will be improved in the future when they understand how to operate high speed trains.


Indeed. The whole sale point for the HSR this whole time is for all the Siu Mings to go up to Guangzhou (sorry...can't help it, HKer will understand what I mean :scratchchin: ) when it is places like Wuhan or Shantou or Guilin where HSR really shines (Chaoshan area especially). But nope, only a handful of train goes beyond Guangzhou. To me, talk about short-sightness and the incompetence of HK govt to even "hard sell" the HSR (i.e. all I have seen is a bunch of "sales pitch" about how it is suppose to reduce time to go to Guangzhou, well, except Guangzhou South Station is in a galaxy far, far away from Liwan or Tianhe Districts).

Theoretically it can increase some tourism traffic to/from some "short mid haul" destinations in PRC (points beyond Guangzhou). Going to Guilin or even Zhangjiajie I believe is quicker via HSR. But good luck, bc younger generation are still just going to travel to South Korea or Japan or Thailand or Taiwan for leisure/city break.


i think the traffic will be in the other direction. I'm not sure if this is already. If there is direct service from Shanghai or Hangzhou to HK, I could see a lot of business travellers taking it instead of air.

It seems like point of sales in China actually sell much more tickets than point of sales in Hong Kong by now. Of course familiarity is a factor but in the long tern it will probably remain like this.

However for places as far away as Shanghai or Beijing I can't see the train gaining much business traffics. The train need 8+ hours to reach those places, even if your plane get delayed by a few hours it could still be faster than the train.
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peterinlisbon
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Mon Sep 24, 2018 12:37 pm

They are good for trips of up to about 4 hours. Longer than that I'd take the plane. I wouldn't want to be sitting on one of these trains all day long all the way to Beijing.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:14 pm

c933103 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
i think the traffic will be in the other direction. I'm not sure if this is already. If there is direct service from Shanghai or Hangzhou to HK, I could see a lot of business travellers taking it instead of air.

It seems like point of sales in China actually sell much more tickets than point of sales in Hong Kong by now. Of course familiarity is a factor but in the long tern it will probably remain like this.

However for places as far away as Shanghai or Beijing I can't see the train gaining much business traffics. The train need 8+ hours to reach those places, even if your plane get delayed by a few hours it could still be faster than the train.


Well, to be fair, PRC has 200x the population of HK :white:

But yes, if anything it may actually be a boost to HK aviation. Ride HSR to HK, walk to Airport Express station and go to HKG, and v.v.. On a related note, is the check-in facility at West Kowloon Station up and running yet?

Otherwise, HK localists are going to really appreciated the fact that HK gov't "waste" so much money to build the HSR for a bunch of mainlanders. :duck:
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tphuang
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Mon Sep 24, 2018 2:14 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
c933103 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
i think the traffic will be in the other direction. I'm not sure if this is already. If there is direct service from Shanghai or Hangzhou to HK, I could see a lot of business travellers taking it instead of air.

It seems like point of sales in China actually sell much more tickets than point of sales in Hong Kong by now. Of course familiarity is a factor but in the long tern it will probably remain like this.

However for places as far away as Shanghai or Beijing I can't see the train gaining much business traffics. The train need 8+ hours to reach those places, even if your plane get delayed by a few hours it could still be faster than the train.


Well, to be fair, PRC has 200x the population of HK :white:

But yes, if anything it may actually be a boost to HK aviation. Ride HSR to HK, walk to Airport Express station and go to HKG, and v.v.. On a related note, is the check-in facility at West Kowloon Station up and running yet?

Otherwise, HK localists are going to really appreciated the fact that HK gov't "waste" so much money to build the HSR for a bunch of mainlanders. :duck:


I think it could be a boost for CX longer range flights, but not good for their short haul flights. Then again, I'm not sure how high yielding are the long haul connection itinerary out of main land when mainland to Europe and North America fares are so low.
 
patrickw421
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Mon Sep 24, 2018 6:50 pm

tphuang wrote:

I think it could be a boost for CX longer range flights, but not good for their short haul flights. Then again, I'm not sure how high yielding are the long haul connection itinerary out of main land when mainland to Europe and North America fares are so low.


The yield is in general couldn't be worse especially in premium cabins. If you are fairly flexible on dates, it isn't difficult to get business class tickets to USA from China (I don't remember from CAN, but definitely the likes of XMN, PEK or PVG/SHA) with similar or slightly less price than PEY tickets from HKG for the same date/flights.

This opens up an interesting question, how easy is it from Guangzhou South to CAN? If it's convenient enough, it might actually hurt CX back on yield when people find out it's much cheaper to take HSR and fly from CAN than direct from HKG.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:49 pm

patrickw421 wrote:
This opens up an interesting question, how easy is it from Guangzhou South to CAN? If it's convenient enough, it might actually hurt CX back on yield when people find out it's much cheaper to take HSR and fly from CAN than direct from HKG.


It's not hard per-se to get from Guangzhou South to CAN, it just takes forever (Right now I would say the most "direct" connection will be on Guangzhou Metro, involving riding the entire Line 2, then change train to Line 3 at the terminus). There's a rail spur being built from Guangzhou North Station to CAN as part of Guangzhou-Qingyuan Intercity Railway, but I believe that won't be complete until 2022 or so.

Ultimately, there are already existing cheap tickets on PRC carriers that involved a transit through a Chinese hub (Usually PVG or PEK) that is much less of a hassle if people really want to go cheap. The transit time is no worse than having to change from one mode of transportation to another than to another just to get to CAN. If anything, if SZX continue to expand, CX would be more worry about that than some cheap flights out of CAN.
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ABpositive
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Tue Sep 25, 2018 2:10 am

Couldn't this in fact be a bonus for HK aviation by making the HKG a much bigger hub in the South China region, if it can offer better and more frequent connections, facilities and experience?
 
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FlightLevel360
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Tue Sep 25, 2018 2:32 am

I actually hate flying out of major Chinese airports, such as Beijing, both Shanghai Airports, and Guangzhou, because they are massively crowded. It takes forever to get through security, and when you enter the country, the immigration lines are depressingly understaffed; wait times are comparable to those at LHR. Furthermore, Chinese ATC always seems to be having random problems causing many flights to get delayed. By contrast the HSR (along with other regional railroads) is less hectic and more on time compared to the flights. I'm always impressed by how the Chinese get rail travel done right while here in the US Amtrak embarrasses me.
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sandbender
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Re: China’s high-speed trains are finally coming to Hong Kong, posing threat to HK aviation?

Tue Sep 25, 2018 2:58 am

WorldFlier wrote:
I think HSR is clearly a winner. Imagine if the US had HSR along I-95...


The Acela is still the best option for DC to Manhattan. And this is despite the aging rolling stock, frequent delays and the fact that Penn & Union Stations make LGA look like paradise on earth. If you need to go to the outer boroughs/suburbs there's little advantage but being able to directly step in/out of a taxi or subway can't be beat. It really needs to be spun off and out of Amtrak's shadow but that will never happen politically.

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