vfw614
Posts: 3801
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2001 12:34 am

Re: AA Launching PHL/ORD-EYW

Wed Sep 26, 2018 6:05 pm

evank516 wrote:
MANY people visit Key West exclusively. I know quite a few of them who will go for a week at a time and fly into EYW. Others may fly to Miami so they can experience the drive down the Keys and then fly out of EYW. I spend a week there in the summer and 5 days in the winter. I don't fly into Miami because I don't want to take that 4+ hour drive. You fly into EYW and you don't need a car, just your feet and maybe a bicycle.


Sure, I am aware of what people do there.

Nevertheless, it is not really a large place (25.000 or so in Key West, 75.000 in the Keys), hence my asking how this additional capacity can be placed on the market. My understanding is that there has been a moratorium for additional hotel accommodation in the Keys for a long time, so demand for transportation should be fairly stable - or has this cap (IIRC 15.000 for all types of accommodation) disappeared?
 
evank516
Topic Author
Posts: 1972
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

Re: AA Launching PHL/ORD-EYW

Wed Sep 26, 2018 6:39 pm

vfw614 wrote:
evank516 wrote:
MANY people visit Key West exclusively. I know quite a few of them who will go for a week at a time and fly into EYW. Others may fly to Miami so they can experience the drive down the Keys and then fly out of EYW. I spend a week there in the summer and 5 days in the winter. I don't fly into Miami because I don't want to take that 4+ hour drive. You fly into EYW and you don't need a car, just your feet and maybe a bicycle.


Sure, I am aware of what people do there.

Nevertheless, it is not really a large place (25.000 or so in Key West, 75.000 in the Keys), hence my asking how this additional capacity can be placed on the market. My understanding is that there has been a moratorium for additional hotel accommodation in the Keys for a long time, so demand for transportation should be fairly stable - or has this cap (IIRC 15.000 for all types of accommodation) disappeared?


Besides hotel accommodations there's vacation rentals, timeshares, snowbirds, not to mention flights to EYW seem to command a premium over the closest mainland airports. I'd say the catchment area for EYW is probably ranging through Marathon/Islamorada as well. Those who have homes on Big Pine, Cudjoe, and Sugarloaf Keys are much closer to EYW than they are to MIA, plus military traffic. In addition lots of the residents leave town during the slower season in Sept/Early Oct and many will fly to wherever they go. Also, the drive down US1 from Miami and Ft. Lauderdale is a single lane road that can be plagued by accidents which makes a 4 hour drive upwards of 6-8 hours according to some of the locals I've spoken with making EYW much more appetizing to avoid spending all of that time in the car. There are events nearly year round (Conch Republic Independence Day, Songwriters Festival, Hemmingway Days, Lobster Fest, Fantasy Fest, etc.) so demand is there for tourists as well.

Then there's the whole thing that flights into EYW are usually jam packed.
 
Transpac787
Posts: 1395
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2007 12:47 pm

Re: AA Launching PHL/ORD-EYW

Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:10 pm

evank516 wrote:
The aircraft has proven to be able to fly nonstop from LCY to New York. If the aircraft can handle flying from LCY to NYC nonstop off of a similarly sized runway WESTBOUND (and doesn't it rain a lot in London too?), then you can pretty much guarantee that it can make it from EYW-LGA, a route that usually has tail winds since it is a general northeast heading (to agree with GalaxyFlyer).

It's "proven" nothing.

https://www.airway1.com/cs100-complete- ... -new-york/

"Bombardier did not disclose under what conditions the CS100 performed the task", only confirming that it flew “with a representative payload.”

The article adds further: "According to the European press, the jet had a configuration equivalent to 42 passengers, or less than half its capacity."

Delta A220's will carry something like 110 seats. So, again, you asserting that because an A220 flew *once* from LCY-JFK - presumably with only 42 pax payload - that it can, therefore, "pretty much guarantee" that it'll make EYW-LGA without a problem, is again hopelessly optimistic.

evank516 wrote:
Out of the 17 total days I've spent there, I've seen rain on 2 of them. It's usually dry there.

Ahh. Clearly an expert, then! My mistake. :rotfl:

evank516 wrote:
If I have something to contribute, I'm going to post.

What you're contributing is conjecture and anecdote.

To interpolate wikipedia statistics and then brazenly declare that it can "do it without a hitch", indicates to me you have no actual operational experience.
 
evank516
Topic Author
Posts: 1972
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Re: AA Launching PHL/ORD-EYW

Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:27 pm

Transpac787 wrote:
evank516 wrote:
The aircraft has proven to be able to fly nonstop from LCY to New York. If the aircraft can handle flying from LCY to NYC nonstop off of a similarly sized runway WESTBOUND (and doesn't it rain a lot in London too?), then you can pretty much guarantee that it can make it from EYW-LGA, a route that usually has tail winds since it is a general northeast heading (to agree with GalaxyFlyer).

It's "proven" nothing.

https://www.airway1.com/cs100-complete- ... -new-york/

"Bombardier did not disclose under what conditions the CS100 performed the task", only confirming that it flew “with a representative payload.”

The article adds further: "According to the European press, the jet had a configuration equivalent to 42 passengers, or less than half its capacity."

Delta A220's will carry something like 110 seats. So, again, you asserting that because an A220 flew *once* from LCY-JFK - presumably with only 42 pax payload - that it can, therefore, "pretty much guarantee" that it'll make EYW-LGA without a problem, is again hopelessly optimistic.

evank516 wrote:
Out of the 17 total days I've spent there, I've seen rain on 2 of them. It's usually dry there.

Ahh. Clearly an expert, then! My mistake. :rotfl:

evank516 wrote:
If I have something to contribute, I'm going to post.

What you're contributing is conjecture and anecdote.

To interpolate wikipedia statistics and then brazenly declare that it can "do it without a hitch", indicates to me you have no actual operational experience.


Dude, climate data dictates that EYW is one of the driest cities in the state of Florida. Look it up. The fact that it is a small island means there is not enough land to create instability in the atmosphere to cause those pop up thunderstorms commonly seen in the summers on the mainland.

Great, the A220 can do it with 42 seats. LCY-JFK is more than twice the distance of LGA-EYW. The plane will not be full, it will not be at MTOW going from LGA-EYW. Winds aloft will also help since flights from Southwest to Northeast tend to pick up tailwinds, especially in the busy winter months with the normal positioning of the jet stream. The A220 is a lighter plane than the 73G also. The latter aircraft was previously used for the service before being downgauged to the CR7 which is already known to have more issues in EYW than the 73G is.

Taken from Airbus:
Using a takeoff field length as short as 1,220 metres, the A220 Family is ideal for hot-and-high and city-centre airport operations; in fact, the A220-100 and A220-300 are the largest aircraft able to operate in the constrained environment of London City Airport. From such challenging airports, the A220 Family has a built-in advantage.


1,220 meters is equal to about 4,003 feet. Oh, and do I see that it is ideal for hot-and-high? Isn't EYW hot? The point is the aircraft will not be at MTOW when taking off from EYW to fly to LGA. If the aircraft holds 116 pax and DL only has 110, then we're 6 seats under the max for 2 class, which means 6 bodies aren't on the plane, plus DL's 1 checked bag rule to EYW, it can certainly make the trip without problems.

And I believe I created the thread, I'll contribute as I damn well please.
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 3954
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: AA Launching PHL/ORD-EYW

Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:53 pm

You can contribute anyway you please, but you can’t cherry pick your data and make operational decisions on weak foundations. There’s a huge difference between marketing brochures and AFM charted performance. It can easily be wet at KEYW; I’ve sent many times at NAS and EYW.

Then, there’s obstacles

TAKEOFF OBSTACLE NOTES: Rwy 9, rod on antenna, dome on building, poles, and numerous trees beginning 38' from DER, 199' right of centerline, up to 75' AGL/82' MSL. Obstruction light on building, pole, and numerous trees beginning 4' from DER, 220' left of centerline, up to 38' AGL/45' MSL. Rwy 27, pole and numerous trees beginning 27' from DER, 116' right of centerline, up to 83' AGL/90' MSL. Numerous bushes and trees beginning 202' from DER, 78' left of centerline, up to 37' AGL/44' MSL.


I’d like to see a runway analysis, dry and wet, before I made any commitments. And, I’ve been there in EAL 727-100s, CL300s, Globals and Citations.

GF
 
washingtonflyer
Posts: 1511
Joined: Sun Sep 08, 2013 9:45 pm

Re: AA Launching PHL/ORD-EYW

Wed Sep 26, 2018 9:01 pm

You will understand the draw for airlines or AA by searching airfares to EYW. It is interesting a very premium airfare city. Typical weekend fares booked 2 months out (Friday to Monday or Thursday to Sunday) are $400 to $600 round trip. With an E-175 on that route, it doesn't take much to print money.
 
Transpac787
Posts: 1395
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2007 12:47 pm

Re: AA Launching PHL/ORD-EYW

Thu Sep 27, 2018 12:08 am

evank516 wrote:
Taken from Airbus: Using a takeoff field length as short as 1,220 metres, the A220 Family is ideal for hot-and-high and city-centre airport operations; in fact, the A220-100 and A220-300 are the largest aircraft able to operate in the constrained environment of London City Airport. From such challenging airports, the A220 Family has a built-in advantage.

1,220 meters is equal to about 4,003 feet. Oh, and do I see that it is ideal for hot-and-high? Isn't EYW hot? The point is the aircraft will not be at MTOW when taking off from EYW to fly to LGA. If the aircraft holds 116 pax and DL only has 110, then we're 6 seats under the max for 2 class, which means 6 bodies aren't on the plane, plus DL's 1 checked bag rule to EYW, it can certainly make the trip without problems.

So, again, your argument is based off of marketing brochures??

Manufacturers have a habit of publishing the typical operating empty weight significantly below what an actual line airplane will be, simply because it lends itself to publishing higher performance, better fuel economy, better payload range, etc etc. Why wouldn't they?? All companies do their best to make their products look as attractive as possible to their consumers. Not just aviation manufacturers, but all companies.

Second to this, manufacturers will also typically publish performance data using the largest-available engine type. Which, is most often not the actual engine chosen by the operators, simply for fuel efficiency reasons.

You, as a mere consumer, should know better than to believe every word of a marketing brochure, hook, line, and sinker.

evank516 wrote:
And I believe I created the thread, I'll contribute as I damn well please.

Arguments based in fantasy and nonsense, yes we can tell you contribute as you please. :rotfl: :rotfl:
 
cheapgreek
Posts: 566
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2017 3:57 pm

Re: AA Launching PHL/ORD-EYW

Thu Sep 27, 2018 1:23 am

evank516 wrote:
cheapgreek wrote:
Still a 4800 foot runway has limitations, high heat, wind speed and direction, etc. While some long flights can be done, there will always be factors that will make some of those flights subject to weight restrictions. EYW is a leisure destination and as such flights carry a lot of luggage and the luggage is usually subject to being left behind. I know EYW is adding 277 feet to one end of the runway, but if the runway could be extended to 5500 feet or so, long range flights could operate day in and day out reliably.


As someone who visits Key West exclusively, no you don't. 1 checked bag is more than enough. While it has its attraction for families, most visitors are adult couples who go for the water activities, food, and bar/music scene. Due to the hot weather most of the year, people pack light. If you visit Trip Advisor's Key West forum, you will see most Destination Experts saying you don't need to bring that much, and many people fit everything into a carry on. So no, despite being a leisure destination most people going to Key West do not pack heavy.

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
evank516 wrote:

I'm more going off the fact that the aircraft is certified to fly LCY-NYC nonstop.


No plane is certified to fly a route; it’s always dependent on prevailing conditions. The A220 has shown, under the conditions, that it can reasonably fly LCY-JFK in an all-business class configuration. That flight means little here as the plane will be two-class configuration, hotter temps, etc.

That said, an A-220-100 shouldn’t have any problems going to LGA, wet or dry. It’s a fairly short leg.


Gf


An aircraft has to be certified to land in LCY due to the higher than normal glide slope. The aircraft has proven to be able to fly nonstop from LCY to New York. If the aircraft can handle flying from LCY to NYC nonstop off of a similarly sized runway WESTBOUND (and doesn't it rain a lot in London too?), then you can pretty much guarantee that it can make it from EYW-LGA, a route that usually has tail winds since it is a general northeast heading (to agree with GalaxyFlyer). Believe it or not, Key West is one of the driest cities in Florida as well receiving much less annual precipitation than mainland cities. The air is much more stable over these small islands. Out of the 17 total days I've spent there, I've seen rain on 2 of them. It's usually dry there.

gsg013 wrote:
EYW is a leisure destination but at least DL restricts pax to 1 checked bag. I would assume UA and AA do the same? Also a beach destination so most of the belongings people generally bring are casual clothes and bathing suits that do not take up all that much space or weight


UA and AA do not have the same rules.


Having worked for a major airline, leisure travelers do carry much more luggage than business travelers do. A family of four can have quite a bit of checked luggage even to warm climates. When operating off a short runway that is subjected to high temperatures, every checked bag counts and many times I have seen bags off loaded even at airports with longer runways than EYW.
 
cheapgreek
Posts: 566
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2017 3:57 pm

Re: AA Launching PHL/ORD-EYW

Thu Sep 27, 2018 1:34 am

Transpac787 wrote:
evank516 wrote:
Taken from Airbus: Using a takeoff field length as short as 1,220 metres, the A220 Family is ideal for hot-and-high and city-centre airport operations; in fact, the A220-100 and A220-300 are the largest aircraft able to operate in the constrained environment of London City Airport. From such challenging airports, the A220 Family has a built-in advantage.

1,220 meters is equal to about 4,003 feet. Oh, and do I see that it is ideal for hot-and-high? Isn't EYW hot? The point is the aircraft will not be at MTOW when taking off from EYW to fly to LGA. If the aircraft holds 116 pax and DL only has 110, then we're 6 seats under the max for 2 class, which means 6 bodies aren't on the plane, plus DL's 1 checked bag rule to EYW, it can certainly make the trip without problems.

So, again, your argument is based off of marketing brochures??

Manufacturers have a habit of publishing the typical operating empty weight significantly below what an actual line airplane will be, simply because it lends itself to publishing higher performance, better fuel economy, better payload range, etc etc. Why wouldn't they?? All companies do their best to make their products look as attractive as possible to their consumers. Not just aviation manufacturers, but all companies.

Second to this, manufacturers will also typically publish performance data using the largest-available engine type. Which, is most often not the actual engine chosen by the operators, simply for fuel efficiency reasons.

You, as a mere consumer, should know better than to believe every word of a marketing brochure, hook, line, and sinker.

evank516 wrote:
And I believe I created the thread, I'll contribute as I damn well please.

Arguments based in fantasy and nonsense, yes we can tell you contribute as you please. :rotfl: :rotfl:


OEM specs are always given under the best of conditions, moderate temperatures, dry runways, favorable winds, etc. Years ago a Embraer rep said give the ERJ-145 a 4000 foot runway and it can go almost anywhere. Piedmont could not use the E145 on the HVN-PHL route due to the 5600 foot runway being too short. PSA uses a CRJ-200 on the route. EYW and its 4800 runway will always present a challenge but it does good with runway its been given.
 
soflaflyer
Posts: 172
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2008 10:35 pm

Re: AA Launching PHL/ORD-EYW

Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:33 am

LAX772LR wrote:
evank516 wrote:
http://aviationtribune.com/airlines/north-america/american-airlines-adds-new-routes-from-chicago-ohare/

Can someone explain the following statement:
named the American Airlines hub at Chicago O’Hare International Airport the best-connected U.S. airport and a leading international hub, second only to London Heathrow

No idea what they're trying to claim, and based on what parameters. It just seems like a very odd thing to say.

Anyone?


Google the report and it will explain the criteria they used to make the determination.
 
727LOVER
Posts: 8449
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2001 12:22 am

Re: AA Launching PHL/ORD-EYW

Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:53 am

PennPal wrote:
Does anyone know/remember what the restrictions were on the 727-100's Eastern used to fly on the EYW-ATL route back in the '80s??



That was to MIA, not ATL
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
User avatar
Pellegrine
Posts: 2312
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2007 10:19 am

Re: AA Launching PHL/ORD-EYW

Fri Sep 28, 2018 3:47 am

Transpac787 wrote:
evank516 wrote:
UA flights are on the E170, and I don't think those are weight restricted at all. At MTOW those airplanes need 5,394 feet of runway to take off and I'm willing to bet that a 2 class E170 does not operate at MTOW for a 1,087.01 NM flight between ORD and EYW if the maximum range is 2,150 NM and a dual class aircraft holds less pax than a single class aircraft. I don't think DL has any restrictions on their 73G flights to/from ATL either (other than the 1 checked bag rule), but I've heard of them on their CR7 flights.

You have an all-too-simplistic analysis. Simple range and takeoff performance figures don’t account for any irregular performance factors. All of which affect EYW.

Heat, humidity, routinely wet runway surfaces adversely affecting braking action, airlines using derated thrust for takeoffs, the list goes on.

You can be certain an A220 would not be able to go at MGTOW out of EYW, going all the way to LGA. Just because the wiki page says an A220-100 needs 4800ft to takeoff, and the EYW runway is 4801ft long, doesn’t mean an A220 can operate out of there “without a hitch”. Takeoff performance is not a simple if/than statement, based off of a 2-figure comparison from a wiki article.


I'm thinking who derates on a 4801 foot runway. :?
oh boy, here we go!!!

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