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eamondzhang
Posts: 1923
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Re: JAL returns to SEA

Thu Sep 27, 2018 5:59 am

mict wrote:
I wish they would leave a little later in the afternoon, now all 3 flights to Tokyo from SEA are all departing around noon to 2pm, a 6PM or later departure would have been nice and offered some flexibility.
Still awesome news though!

For both NH and JL late departure means nil chance making any intra-Asia transfers and hence the early departures.

psa1011 wrote:
I think ANA will be the weakest here, since AS and JL cooperate, but maybe there's enough for everyone.

I would argue not necessary - ANA's been in the market longer and got support from UA; remember ANA replaced UA's own SEA-NRT flight.

Michael
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: JAL returns to SEA

Thu Sep 27, 2018 6:08 am

neomax wrote:
That's pretty surprising. DL's network out of SEA is (really) weak for a city that has more instantly recognizable brands than any other city in the world. They have 3 TPAC routes, maybe? That won't even be enough to make a dent in standalone competitors in the Int'l arena, forget about competing with AS and their Int'l partners at SEA.

SEA has more "recognizable brands" than NYC, TYO, LON, and PAR?
....allllllrighty then, lol.

But anyway, DL serves the primary transpacific gateways for US traffic all nonstop from SEA:
NRT, ICN, PEK, PVG, and resuming KIX. It also offers LHR, CDG, and AMS on its own metal; double daily for each of those if you count JV partners.

Missing is of course the recently discontinued HKG.

Not really sure what else you expect, considering that [email protected] is the only USA competitor that offers significantly more TPAC destinations from any US gateway, on its own metal.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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neomax
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Re: JAL returns to SEA

Thu Sep 27, 2018 7:55 am

LAX772LR wrote:
SEA has more "recognizable brands" than NYC, TYO, LON, and PAR?
....allllllrighty then, lol.

But anyway, DL serves the primary transpacific gateways for US traffic all nonstop from SEA:
NRT, ICN, PEK, PVG, and resuming KIX. It also offers LHR, CDG, and AMS on its own metal; double daily for each of those if you count JV partners.

Missing is of course the recently discontinued HKG.

Not really sure what else you expect, considering that [email protected] is the only USA competitor that offers significantly more TPAC destinations from any US gateway, on its own metal.


I don't deny that NYC, TYO, LON, and PAR are home to tons of faceless finance or fashion companies, but you have to be in those industries to know shit from shinola. None of those cities are the HQ of any mega companies that 95% of people globally would know such as Apple, Google, Facebook, Twitter, Disney, Walmart, Amazon, Microsoft, Tesla, Boeing, Nike, Coke, Starbucks, or McDonalds. 4 of those companies (Amazon, Microsoft, Boeing, and Starbucks) are based in Seattle, while SF has 4 as well (Apple, Google, Facebook, Twitter) so technically that is a tie if you look at internationally recognizable brands. But if you look domestically within the US, instantly recognizable brands skews heavily in Seattle's favor with brands like T-Mobile, Costco, and Expedia while SF has Uber and maybe Yahoo. Domestically, Atlanta is strong as well with the likes of Delta, Coke, Home Depot, UPS, and Chick-fil-A and comes in third. But Seattle wins overall.

With these kind of companies, SEA is severely undersized and it is no surprise its getting so crowded. Logically, you'd expect more traffic at SEA than at SFO and as of late, it is doing a good job of closing the gap pretty quickly with the likes of new Int'l carriers like AF, CX, and JL. DL should have waaay more Int'l flights than it does right now and at least be on par with SFO. The main issue right now is lack of space and the fact that AS is a much bigger threat to DL at SEA than it is to UA at SFO.
Last edited by neomax on Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: JAL returns to SEA

Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:06 am

neomax wrote:
I don't deny that NYC, TYO, LON, and PAR are home to tons of faceless finance or fashion companies, but you have to be in those industries to know shit from shinola. None of those cities are the HQ of any mega companies that 95% of people globally would know such as Apple, Google, Facebook, Twitter, Disney, Walmart, Amazon, Microsoft, Tesla, Boeing, Nike, Coke, Starbucks, or McDonalds. 4 of those companies (Amazon, Microsoft, Boeing, and Starbucks) are based in Seattle, while SF has 4 as well (Apple, Google, Facebook, Twitter) so technically that is a tie if you look at internationally recognizable brands. But if you look domestically within the US, instantly recognizable brands skews heavily in Seattle's favor with brands like T-Mobile, Costco, and Expedia while SF has Uber and maybe Yahoo. So Seattle wins overall.

Start here:
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/subjectivity?s=t

Then continue here:
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/fallacy?s=t

...report back what you learned.



neomax wrote:
Logically, you'd expect more traffic at SEA than at SFO

Why would any logical person expect "more traffic" to the gateway for at a smaller metro, with a significantly smaller corporate base, versus one with a CSA populace twice its size, and far ahead of it in almost every aggregate measure of production?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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neomax
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Re: JAL returns to SEA

Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:13 am

LAX772LR wrote:


Care to elaborate?

LAX772LR wrote:
There are many prefaces for such a statement, but "logically" certainly isn't one of them.


It's logical enough considering that SEA's growth rate is substantially higher than that of SFO. SEA at No.9 is two spaces behind SFO at 7 and will probably pass it within the next few years as AS and DL continue to duke it out not including additional new Int'l flights.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: JAL returns to SEA

Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:20 am

neomax wrote:
Care to elaborate?

Meh, not really. I'm sure you could figure out what I'm trying to tell you--- hopefully anyway.


neomax wrote:
It's logical enough considering that SEA's growth rate is substantially higher than that of SFO. SEA at No.9 is two spaces behind SFO at 7 and will probably pass it within the next few years as AS and DL continue to duke it out not including additional new Int'l flights.

SFO grew faster than SEA did last year dude... in fact, twice the rate (+5.1% vs +2.6%), which doesn't even take into account that it's a 9million pax busier gateway.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5592
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: JAL returns to SEA

Thu Sep 27, 2018 12:31 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
neomax wrote:
I don't deny that NYC, TYO, LON, and PAR are home to tons of faceless finance or fashion companies, but you have to be in those industries to know shit from shinola. None of those cities are the HQ of any mega companies that 95% of people globally would know such as Apple, Google, Facebook, Twitter, Disney, Walmart, Amazon, Microsoft, Tesla, Boeing, Nike, Coke, Starbucks, or McDonalds. 4 of those companies (Amazon, Microsoft, Boeing, and Starbucks) are based in Seattle, while SF has 4 as well (Apple, Google, Facebook, Twitter) so technically that is a tie if you look at internationally recognizable brands. But if you look domestically within the US, instantly recognizable brands skews heavily in Seattle's favor with brands like T-Mobile, Costco, and Expedia while SF has Uber and maybe Yahoo. So Seattle wins overall.

Start here:
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/subjectivity?s=t

Then continue here:
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/fallacy?s=t

...report back what you learned.



neomax wrote:
Logically, you'd expect more traffic at SEA than at SFO

Why would any logical person expect "more traffic" to the gateway for at a smaller metro, with a significantly smaller corporate base, versus one with a CSA populace twice its size, and far ahead of it in almost every aggregate measure of production?


Actually, I tend to agree with you. The San Francisco metro area is FAR larger than the Seattle metro area, even though the SF metro area has four significant commercial airports (didn't include CCR even though they have JetSuite X service there). However, both are bursting at their seams...it will be interesting how much more either airport can handle.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6302
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Re: JAL returns to SEA

Thu Sep 27, 2018 12:39 pm

n7371f wrote:
DL has just about every major corporate contract in SEA for Intl wrapped up. Amazon. Microsoft. And so on...They'll be fine.

tphuang wrote:
a19901213 wrote:

With so many flight flying directly from various Asian cities to US cities right now I dont see how NRT-SEA can be a huge success to them.

The route itself might not struggle that bad but neither would it be a great success.

btw, I'm not saying DL will drop out. They won't do that, but things will get a lot tougher.


And they are the dominant carrier in both domestic and international in NYC, but isn't even on JFK-NRT. What does that tell you?
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 280
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Re: JAL returns to SEA

Thu Sep 27, 2018 12:55 pm

tphuang wrote:
n7371f wrote:
DL has just about every major corporate contract in SEA for Intl wrapped up. Amazon. Microsoft. And so on...They'll be fine.

tphuang wrote:
btw, I'm not saying DL will drop out. They won't do that, but things will get a lot tougher.


And they are the dominant carrier in both domestic and international in NYC, but isn't even on JFK-NRT. What does that tell you?


Surprising as it is to hear you call DL "dominant" in NYC, SEA is an apples and oranges comparison. If DL were to drop NRT from SEA, that undercuts the whole purpose of the SEA hub in ways that dropping JFK-NRT didn't do to JFK since it's primary purpose is different.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6302
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Re: JAL returns to SEA

Thu Sep 27, 2018 2:20 pm

ShinyAndChrome wrote:
tphuang wrote:
n7371f wrote:
DL has just about every major corporate contract in SEA for Intl wrapped up. Amazon. Microsoft. And so on...They'll be fine.



And they are the dominant carrier in both domestic and international in NYC, but isn't even on JFK-NRT. What does that tell you?


Surprising as it is to hear you call DL "dominant" in NYC, SEA is an apples and oranges comparison. If DL were to drop NRT from SEA, that undercuts the whole purpose of the SEA hub in ways that dropping JFK-NRT didn't do to JFK since it's primary purpose is different.


they are certainly dominant in the corporate market and NYC is a stronger hub than SEA. I think you missed my point here. The fact that they don't offer JFK-NRT shows that NYC-TYO is a very tough market for DL due to reasons already discussed. They are obviously not going to drop SEA-TYO, but it's going to become a much tougher market now that they are facing the same market dynamic there as in NYC.
 
DUSdude
Posts: 158
Joined: Tue May 08, 2007 4:20 am

Re: JAL returns to SEA

Thu Sep 27, 2018 10:45 pm

Overthecascades wrote:
Any speculation on moving to HND?


Thepointsguy posted an article yesterday referencing an article in the Puget Sound Business Journal (which I assume is the one I linked below, but which I can't read due to paywall), according to which a move to HND is planned in 2020.

See:

https://thepointsguy.com/news/japan-air ... o-flights/

And:

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... laska.html
 
kavok
Posts: 936
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: JAL returns to SEA

Thu Sep 27, 2018 11:02 pm

DUSdude wrote:
Overthecascades wrote:
Any speculation on moving to HND?


Thepointsguy posted an article yesterday referencing an article in the Puget Sound Business Journal (which I assume is the one I linked below, but which I can't read due to paywall), according to which a move to HND is planned in 2020.

See:

https://thepointsguy.com/news/japan-air ... o-flights/

And:

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... laska.html



This could set up an interesting situation. Assuming the move to HND happens, and also assuming DL is given at least one new HND slot as well (and thus the opportunity to also move their SEA-NRT flight to HND), I am guessing DL would obviously switch their SEA flight to HND.

In that scenario:
1- Does All Nippon use a coveted HND slot on SEA as well? Or do they keep their SEA-NRT flight? Or just drop SEA-TYO altogether?

2- Assuming DL adds SEA-HND, does DL drop SEA-NRT, or do they fly both? That would ultimately force DLs hand probably in making a final decision on whether to close the NRT “hub” altogether, or if still flying their own metal to NRT-SIN/MNL is worth it.
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5592
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: JAL returns to SEA

Thu Sep 27, 2018 11:48 pm

kavok wrote:
DUSdude wrote:
Overthecascades wrote:
Any speculation on moving to HND?


Thepointsguy posted an article yesterday referencing an article in the Puget Sound Business Journal (which I assume is the one I linked below, but which I can't read due to paywall), according to which a move to HND is planned in 2020.

See:

https://thepointsguy.com/news/japan-air ... o-flights/

And:

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... laska.html



This could set up an interesting situation. Assuming the move to HND happens, and also assuming DL is given at least one new HND slot as well (and thus the opportunity to also move their SEA-NRT flight to HND), I am guessing DL would obviously switch their SEA flight to HND.

In that scenario:
1- Does All Nippon use a coveted HND slot on SEA as well? Or do they keep their SEA-NRT flight? Or just drop SEA-TYO altogether?

2- Assuming DL adds SEA-HND, does DL drop SEA-NRT, or do they fly both? That would ultimately force DLs hand probably in making a final decision on whether to close the NRT “hub” altogether, or if still flying their own metal to NRT-SIN/MNL is worth it.


You all do remember that DL once flew the SEA-HND for a while. They discontinued the service due to low loads. Do you all really think they'll bring back SEA-HND? They're bringing back SEA-KIX...I guess it could happen.
 
DUSdude
Posts: 158
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Re: JAL returns to SEA

Fri Sep 28, 2018 12:00 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
You all do remember that DL once flew the SEA-HND for a while. They discontinued the service due to low loads. Do you all really think they'll bring back SEA-HND? They're bringing back SEA-KIX...I guess it could happen.


The greater Seattle metro area was a very different place business and population wise back in the day when DL dropped that route. This place has grown at ridiculous rates. You can't infer insufficient demand from that past experience. Seattle then vs. now is like comparing two entirely different cities. I'll happily take the HND flight as soon as it's offered!
 
kavok
Posts: 936
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Re: JAL returns to SEA

Fri Sep 28, 2018 12:17 am

Duplicate post
Last edited by kavok on Fri Sep 28, 2018 12:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
kavok
Posts: 936
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: JAL returns to SEA

Fri Sep 28, 2018 12:18 am

DUSdude wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
You all do remember that DL once flew the SEA-HND for a while. They discontinued the service due to low loads. Do you all really think they'll bring back SEA-HND? They're bringing back SEA-KIX...I guess it could happen.


The greater Seattle metro area was a very different place business and population wise back in the day when DL dropped that route. This place has grown at ridiculous rates. You can't infer insufficient demand from that past experience. Seattle then vs. now is like comparing two entirely different cities. I'll happily take the HND flight as soon as it's offered!


The main reason the SEA-HND flights didn’t work before was the timing of the flights. They were restricted to overnight arrival/departures at HND when business pax didn’t want to travel. It had very little to do with the economy then or now.

Given new daytime slots, SEA-HND could easily work for both airlines. Nighttime slots would still not work for today either, even with a better economy.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: JAL returns to SEA

Fri Sep 28, 2018 12:54 am

kavok wrote:
DUSdude wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
You all do remember that DL once flew the SEA-HND for a while. They discontinued the service due to low loads. Do you all really think they'll bring back SEA-HND? They're bringing back SEA-KIX...I guess it could happen.


The greater Seattle metro area was a very different place business and population wise back in the day when DL dropped that route. This place has grown at ridiculous rates. You can't infer insufficient demand from that past experience. Seattle then vs. now is like comparing two entirely different cities. I'll happily take the HND flight as soon as it's offered!


The main reason the SEA-HND flights didn’t work before was the timing of the flights. They were restricted to overnight arrival/departures at HND when business pax didn’t want to travel. It had very little to do with the economy then or now.

Given new daytime slots, SEA-HND could easily work for both airlines. Nighttime slots would still not work for today either, even with a better economy.


So if both of your arguments hold true, do you think DL will reapply for SEA-HND slots, in tandem with their existing SEA-NRT flights?
 
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FA9295
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Re: JAL returns to SEA

Fri Sep 28, 2018 1:14 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
kavok wrote:
DUSdude wrote:

The greater Seattle metro area was a very different place business and population wise back in the day when DL dropped that route. This place has grown at ridiculous rates. You can't infer insufficient demand from that past experience. Seattle then vs. now is like comparing two entirely different cities. I'll happily take the HND flight as soon as it's offered!


The main reason the SEA-HND flights didn’t work before was the timing of the flights. They were restricted to overnight arrival/departures at HND when business pax didn’t want to travel. It had very little to do with the economy then or now.

Given new daytime slots, SEA-HND could easily work for both airlines. Nighttime slots would still not work for today either, even with a better economy.


So if both of your arguments hold true, do you think DL will reapply for SEA-HND slots, in tandem with their existing SEA-NRT flights?

Doubtful. Delta got rid of LAX-NRT and MSP-NRT once they were able to launch their HND flights with better/more convenient slot times.
 
Sightseer
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Re: JAL returns to SEA

Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:24 am

tphuang wrote:
The fact that they don't offer JFK-NRT shows that NYC-TYO is a very tough market for DL due to reasons already discussed. They are obviously not going to drop SEA-TYO, but it's going to become a much tougher market now that they are facing the same market dynamic there as in NYC.

I think another issue is competition from HND. DL is in a worse position at LAX than NYC and makes LAX-HND work. JL and NH are also both on HND-JFK, with JL even dropping HND-HNL to do so. To me, that says the business market prefers HND over NRT, so I think the fact that (for now) there is no HND-SEA will limit DL's losses somewhat. (And yes, to anyone wondering, DL could make SEA-HND work if given properly timed slots.)
 
PayaLebar
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Re: JAL returns to SEA

Fri Sep 28, 2018 5:55 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Nixon was still in office when JL last served MSY. :lol:


Nixon wasn't in office when I first flew JL from JKT (then Kemayoran Airport) to my namesake airport Paya Lebar in Singapore end December 1967.

You've just outed me as an ancient relic! :lol:
 
Overthecascades
Posts: 194
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Re: JAL returns to SEA

Sat Oct 06, 2018 4:27 pm

JL745/746. Anyone know the discontinued JL SEA flight numbers back in the day? Wonder if they reused it!
 
RainerBoeing777
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Re: JAL returns to SEA

Sat Oct 06, 2018 4:32 pm

Overthecascades wrote:
JL745/746. Anyone know the discontinued JL SEA flight numbers back in the day? Wonder if they reused it!


JAL 745/746 It is used for the Tokyo Narita flight - Manila is currently operated with Boeing 767-300ER
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG - UA
 
Overthecascades
Posts: 194
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Re: JAL returns to SEA

Sat Oct 06, 2018 6:17 pm

[twoid][/twoid]
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Overthecascades wrote:
JL745/746. Anyone know the discontinued JL SEA flight numbers back in the day? Wonder if they reused it!


JAL 745/746 It is used for the Tokyo Narita flight - Manila is currently operated with Boeing 767-300ER


Thanks. My bad. I meant whether the discontinued JL SEA flight numbers back in the day were 67 and 68. Wonder if they reused it returning to SEA!

Interesting JL outbound flight number is the larger and even number vs the inbound!
 
master14225
Posts: 180
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Re: JAL returns to SEA

Sat Oct 06, 2018 6:55 pm

Next will be CA, CZ, MU, CI, and HX comparing what YVR and SFO has that SEA doesn't have.
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5592
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: JAL returns to SEA

Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:53 pm

master14225 wrote:
Next will be CA, CZ, MU, CI, and HX comparing what YVR and SFO has that SEA doesn't have.


Others I’ve heard are PR, MH and SQ.
 
master14225
Posts: 180
Joined: Fri May 04, 2018 6:38 am

Re: JAL returns to SEA

Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:07 pm

PR makes sense, however MH and SQ would probably come to YVR first than SEA. However YVR is close to SEA so it could be a test if SEA could be an additional destination.

wedgetail737 wrote:
master14225 wrote:
Next will be CA, CZ, MU, CI, and HX comparing what YVR and SFO has that SEA doesn't have.


Others I’ve heard are PR, MH and SQ.
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5592
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: JAL returns to SEA

Sun Oct 07, 2018 12:35 am

master14225 wrote:
PR makes sense, however MH and SQ would probably come to YVR first than SEA. However YVR is close to SEA so it could be a test if SEA could be an additional destination.

wedgetail737 wrote:
master14225 wrote:
Next will be CA, CZ, MU, CI, and HX comparing what YVR and SFO has that SEA doesn't have.


Others I’ve heard are PR, MH and SQ.


I only these three up because SEA has been mentioned by them in the past. SQ just because they have a partnership with SQ. SQ once served YVR.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: JAL returns to SEA

Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:37 am

Still amused that Neomax believes "Apple, Google, Facebook, Twitter" is the extent of globally-recognized brands in the SF area. I suppose he has never heard of Oracle, Intel, Cisco, HP, Tesla, Genentech and the like....LOL
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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Tabito
Posts: 103
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Re: JAL returns to SEA

Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:37 am

Overthecascades wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Overthecascades wrote:
JL745/746. Anyone know the discontinued JL SEA flight numbers back in the day? Wonder if they reused it!


JAL 745/746 It is used for the Tokyo Narita flight - Manila is currently operated with Boeing 767-300ER


Thanks. My bad. I meant whether the discontinued JL SEA flight numbers back in the day were 67 and 68. Wonder if they reused it returning to SEA!

Interesting JL outbound flight number is the larger and even number vs the inbound!


JL28 NRT 17:30 - SEA 10:05 11:25 - ATL19:00 Mo,We.Th,Su
JL27 ATL 12:00 - SEA 13:55 15:15 - NRT 17:05+1 Mo,Tu,Th,Fr

There were flight number JL65/66 (HKG-NRT-LAX) in these era (1987~).
 
Overthecascades
Posts: 194
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Re: JAL returns to SEA

Sun Oct 14, 2018 3:15 pm

Is the fare loaded? Couldn’t find it on Expedia or Google flights. Thx
 
717atOGG
Posts: 901
Joined: Fri Feb 27, 2015 2:10 am

Re: JAL returns to SEA

Sun Oct 14, 2018 4:12 pm

Overthecascades wrote:
Is the fare loaded? Couldn’t find it on Expedia or Google flights. Thx

It's not going to be available for sale until early November IIRC.
A320/321, A332, 712, 73G/8/9ER, 744, 752/3, E145, E175, CR9
 
Overthecascades
Posts: 194
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:13 pm

Re: JAL returns to SEA

Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:52 pm

What was the years when JL served SEA and its flight numbers were 27/28 as indicated above? Wouldn’t it be nice to use that again for the resumes flight in 2019?
 
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LAX772LR
Posts: 13920
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: JAL returns to SEA

Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:51 pm

Overthecascades wrote:
What was the years when JL served SEA and its flight numbers were 27/28 as indicated above? Wouldn’t it be nice to use that again for the resumes flight in 2019?

There's a chance.

JL hasn't used 027 since 2001, from LAX;
and hasn't used 028 since 2013, to HKG.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil

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