It looks like United has 6 slots so I wonder who will want them ?

DLASFlyer wrote:

Wneast wrote:

DLASFlyer wrote:

It looks like United is pulling out of PAE. The last flight will be October 4th, leaving only AS there.

Do you think we see AS take those three slots of someone else come in ?

Nope, AS has been cutting PAE as well. That move plus United's calls into question the entire business model.

This seems really short sighted of UA, it’d be one thing to make that based on the demand of Covid didn’t happen, but since it did you essentially need to throw out March 2020 to June 2021 data as an outlier. In addition the from the March 2019 opening to March 2020 is usually considered the period for new routes to mature.

I wonder if AS squats on them to prevent anyone else from moving in. They know as soon as things get busy and driving Everett to Sea-Tac is unreliable demand should go back up. There is a fair bit of affluence north of Seattle that should value a shorter drive.

Avelo

AS isn't cutting permanently. They're due to use 13 of their 18 slots by fall and have said they're planning to be back to full strength by next spring.

AS also suspended PAE-LAX/PDX/SFO/SJC from the end of October to January according to the weekly OAG update July 6.

More transcon routes would be welcome. I’d love it if DL jumped on the PAE bandwagon. A couple flights a day to SLC and ATL would be really welcome. I know I’d take advantage of that.

Wasn’t AS going to start PAE-DAL? What’s the latest with that?

flyinggoat wrote:

Wasn’t AS going to start PAE-DAL? What’s the latest with that?

That was never announced.

flyinggoat wrote:

More transcon routes would be welcome. I’d love it if DL jumped on the PAE bandwagon. A couple flights a day to SLC and ATL would be really welcome. I know I’d take advantage of that.

ATL is a stretch, but it sure seems like SLC would be worth a try.

oosnowrat wrote:

flyinggoat wrote:

More transcon routes would be welcome. I’d love it if DL jumped on the PAE bandwagon. A couple flights a day to SLC and ATL would be really welcome. I know I’d take advantage of that.

ATL is a stretch, but it sure seems like SLC would be worth a try.

The only reason for starting PAE-ATL would be to flex on Alaska, although I almost wonder if that would be a perfect A220 route. I believe DL had planned on flying one of their SEA-ATL frequencies on the A220 prior to the pandemic.

AC4500 wrote:

oosnowrat wrote:

flyinggoat wrote:

More transcon routes would be welcome. I’d love it if DL jumped on the PAE bandwagon. A couple flights a day to SLC and ATL would be really welcome. I know I’d take advantage of that.

ATL is a stretch, but it sure seems like SLC would be worth a try.

The only reason for starting PAE-ATL would be to flex on Alaska, although I almost wonder if that would be a perfect A220 route. I believe DL had planned on flying one of their SEA-ATL frequencies on the A220 prior to the pandemic.

What you think we see happen with the slots ?

Wneast wrote:

AC4500 wrote:

oosnowrat wrote:

ATL is a stretch, but it sure seems like SLC would be worth a try.

The only reason for starting PAE-ATL would be to flex on Alaska, although I almost wonder if that would be a perfect A220 route. I believe DL had planned on flying one of their SEA-ATL frequencies on the A220 prior to the pandemic.

What you think we see happen with the slots ?

That is what we are discussing…. I do think that there is a 50% chance that SWA takes another bite at the apple. With their recent city expansion phase, PAE seems as good as JAN for a choice. Just my thoughts. Maybe only 4 slots though this time. 2 to OAK, 1 to LAS and DEN. That is my guess….

Avelo, Allegiant, Southwest, Frontier, or Breeze. PAE needs one of those to come in and fly multiple routes.

I hate to hear UA is pulling out of PAE. That flight from DEN was always pretty full pre covid

While I would love to see WN get back in the game grabbing the 6 slots.
I think Spirit,Allegiant or Frontier will jump on the slots.
Allegiant missed the boat last time because of lack of aircraft as they were just finishing winding down it’s MD fleet. Now they have ample flexibility so this might be a Golden opportunity for them. They could easily add a plethora of less than daily markets with 6 slots.

Spirit I think you would see LAS,LAX and OAK.

Frontier would probably do ONT,LAS,DEN.

Southwest would definitely be 2 OAK,2 LAS and 2 DEN.

Enjoy or Don’t
Flyguy

How many daily flights does AS have scheduled for August?

Is there any onsite car rentals as of yet at PAE, or are all of them a two mile plus shuttle bus away?

The routes from PAE that seem to be consistently successful are the sun and fun destinations, so it seems like a good Allegiant station. Spirit hasn’t taken off in the Seattle area as much. I was really expecting someone to offer a Hawai’i flight, at least over the holiday periods.

ytib wrote:

Is there any onsite car rentals as of yet at PAE, or are all of them a two mile plus shuttle bus away?

As of now there are no car rentals at PAE.

TerminalD wrote:

AS also suspended PAE-LAX/PDX/SFO/SJC from the end of October to January according to the weekly OAG update July 6.

As of a month ago, LAX, PDX, and SJC had already been dropped from their announced plans, but several previously unserved destinations were to be added. SFO was apparently still in the plans at that time.

Given how much uncertainty there is, I wouldn't count anything still on the schedule as a given, but the plan had been to try alternative destinations, not simply to cut service.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1405023&start=250#p22796125

Before the pandemic, the general understanding was that PAE traffic was good for most of the routes. Load factors were above 80% for all the AS destinations except PDX, SFO, and SJC.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1405023&start=250#p22796125

I wonder if staffing issues are a factor in either UA or AS near term plans for PAE.

ytib wrote:

Is there any onsite car rentals as of yet at PAE, or are all of them a two mile plus shuttle bus away?

As I understood it, no company had near term plans for onsite rentals - just on call shuttles. That doesn't seem like too big of a problem. Some onsite rental car facilities are more than a 2 mile shuttle ride from the terminal.

Given how badly the pandemic disrupted the rental car business, I'm sure there haven't been any plans pulled forward. I assume the terminal owner will update this page with any changes:
https://flypainefield.com/about/location

So I reached out to a reliable WN source asked if WN would entertain PAE again? The answer was a HARD NO! Apparently AW head of WN network planning felt the airport terminal had to many short comings like Lack of passengers parking areas,Terminal was too small to accommodate the everyone and The terminal management had more rules and restrictions that SNA. So AW saw more value in trading slots PAE slots for LGA slots with AS. And had long envisioned tapping into Vancouver BC via BLI since AS was jumping ship in favor of PAE.

So no PAE for WN.

Enjoy or Don’t
Flyguy

wnflyguy wrote:

So I reached out to a reliable WN source asked if WN would entertain PAE again? The answer was a HARD NO! Apparently AW head of WN network planning felt the airport terminal had to many short comings like Lack of passengers parking areas,Terminal was too small to accommodate the everyone and The terminal management had more rules and restrictions that SNA. So AW saw more value in trading slots PAE slots for LGA slots with AS. And had long envisioned tapping into Vancouver BC via BLI since AS was jumping ship in favor of PAE.

So no PAE for WN.

Enjoy or Don’t
Flyguy

As long as they start BLI-DEN, and get some glass jet bridges at BLI, they can skip PAE.

I think a DL A220 to SLC three times a day would be worth a try. One bad thing about UA and Denver was only one option a day.

DenverTed wrote:

I think a DL A220 to SLC three times a day would be worth a try. One bad thing about UA and Denver was only one option a day.

Or 3 E175s a day. The problem is Delta is trying to keep as many gates as possible at SEA and the only way to do that is to maximize flights there.

jplatts wrote:

DLASFlyer wrote:

Or 3 E175s a day. The problem is Delta is trying to keep as many gates as possible at SEA and the only way to do that is to maximize flights there.

DL does serve EWR, HPN, and SWF in addition to its LGA and JFK hubs in the NYC market, even with DL wanting to maximize slot usage at both LGA and JFK.

DL serves BUR, LGB, ONT, and SNA in Greater Los Angeles in addition to the LAX hub.

DL insists on serving DAL in addition to DFW in the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex, even though DL and WN were maxed out at DAL prior to the cuts that WN made at DAL due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Neither of these are really comparable though.

- In NYC, DL is top dog, not challenger. Very different dynamic. These smaller airports are about adding incremental value to their large local ff base.
- LA is a massive market. They simply can't afford to ignore the parts of the metro that won't use LAX. It's just too big. No comparison with PAE.
- DAL is an outstation. It's about convenience for DL's existing ff base. They've got no skin in the game beyond that. (same for CHI and the Bay Area)

And none allocate slots based on usage the way SEA does. Which is key.

jplatts wrote:

DenverTed wrote:

As long as they start BLI-DEN, and get some glass jet bridges at BLI, they can skip PAE.

BLI is close enough to Everett and points north in Snohomish County to be a viable alternative to SEA from Everett and points north in Snohomish County as BLI is approximately a 1 hour 5 min. drive from Downtown Everett whereas it can take almost as long to drive to SEA from Everett if there is traffic in Seattle or Bellevue (even with SEA being closer to Everett than BLI).

WN would also be able to offer connections to some destinations not served by AS through DEN if it adds BLI-DEN nonstop service, whereas it usually requires a double connection (including a connection onto an AA flight) to connect on AS/AA from BLI to most of the domestic destinations without AS service.

SX had previously marketed BLI as an alternative to SEA when SX operated CMH-BLI nonstop service 14 years ago, but SX never served SEA. CMH also didn't have any nonstop service to SEA until AS started CMH-SEA nonstop service 2 years ago.

It can easily take 2+ hours to drive from Everett to SEA via I-5 on a weekday afternoon, especially if there is a Mariners game or event in Seattle. I’ve done the drive from Mukilteo to the BFI area several times recently around 3pm and it’s around 1 1/2 hours. It’s gotten really bad. 405 isn’t much better.

USAirKid wrote:

I wonder if AS squats on them to prevent anyone else from moving in. They know as soon as things get busy and driving Everett to Sea-Tac is unreliable demand should go back up. There is a fair bit of affluence north of Seattle that should value a shorter drive.

Was that asserted value showing up in yields? There's a lot to be said for frequency and PAE doesn't have it.

MIflyer12 wrote:

USAirKid wrote:

I wonder if AS squats on them to prevent anyone else from moving in. They know as soon as things get busy and driving Everett to Sea-Tac is unreliable demand should go back up. There is a fair bit of affluence north of Seattle that should value a shorter drive.

Was that asserted value showing up in yields? There's a lot to be said for frequency and PAE doesn't have it.

You wouldn't just look at it in isolation though, would you. It's complementary to SEA.

I wonder who is going to pick up UA's 6 PAE slots?

https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-ai ... d-flights/

wedgetail737 wrote:

I wonder who is going to pick up UA's 6 PAE slots?

Probably no one. There were unallocated slots no airline wanted even before Covid.

DLASFlyer wrote:

wedgetail737 wrote:

I wonder who is going to pick up UA's 6 PAE slots?

Probably no one. There were unallocated slots no airline wanted even before Covid.

UA used all of their slots until they discontinued SFO-PAE service and then, of course, PAE-DEN was cut dramatically because of COVID. I anticipate AS taking those slots over...at least, it wouldn't surprise me.

wedgetail737 wrote:

DLASFlyer wrote:

wedgetail737 wrote:

I wonder who is going to pick up UA's 6 PAE slots?

Probably no one. There were unallocated slots no airline wanted even before Covid.

UA used all of their slots until they discontinued SFO-PAE service and then, of course, PAE-DEN was cut dramatically because of COVID. I anticipate AS taking those slots over...at least, it wouldn't surprise me.

What would they do with them though they cover most of the west coast from there ?

DLASFlyer wrote:

wedgetail737 wrote:

I wonder who is going to pick up UA's 6 PAE slots?

Probably no one. There were unallocated slots no airline wanted even before Covid.

I will probably get fried for this one, but I think this PAE thing turned out to be overrated. Just shy of HAV and HND on overblown hype

I actually could see AA taking two slots (1x each to DFW and PHX) with the other four going to F9 or G4. I don't foresee NK being interested in PAE and XP isn't big enough yet to sustain a third base.

alasizon wrote:

I actually could see AA taking two slots (1x each to DFW and PHX) with the other four going to F9 or G4. I don't foresee NK being interested in PAE and XP isn't big enough yet to sustain a third base.

I cannot see G4 splitting between PAE and BLI nor do I see F9 splitting between SEA and PAE, especially not for four slots. It’s not really either airline’s MO.

wnflyguy wrote:

So I reached out to a reliable WN source asked if WN would entertain PAE again? The answer was a HARD NO! Apparently AW head of WN network planning felt the airport terminal had to many short comings like Lack of passengers parking areas,Terminal was too small to accommodate the everyone and The terminal management had more rules and restrictions that SNA. So AW saw more value in trading slots PAE slots for LGA slots with AS. And had long envisioned tapping into Vancouver BC via BLI since AS was jumping ship in favor of PAE.

So no PAE for WN.

Thanks for sharing.

That fits what I suspected, especially considering they'd be serving it with 737's. Southwest needs to sell enough tickets to cover the costs for a significantly larger aircraft, so they need more confidence in the demand than Alaska did.

Frankly, I'm a bit surprised the gate area was sized small enough that it is reported as crowded even with a pair of E175's loading at the same time. They talked from the start about being able to serve 737 or A320 sized aircraft, but it sounds like that would significantly worsen the experience of using the terminal.

Alaska has a natural advantage of a huge customer base with a strong brand recognition in the area. I am disappointed UA is pulling out, but if it's not working then it's not working. Anytime I worked a PAE flight it seemed pretty full. Clearly the numbers aren't working out. If UA can't make it work out of DEN I can't see WN having the magic sauce to make it work on double the seats. UA has unparalleled connection potential in DEN.

Would AS to ORD be a long shot on an E175? There’s got to be some utilization of that route, especially with eastward connections via AA?

United leaving is surprising, but not super surprising. I would guess that demand from PAE is going to be some of the last to come back for them, and they probably didn’t want to wait it out.

One thing that DL has in it’s favor that no other airline (other than AS) has are corporate contracts and loyalty in the Seattle area. There are Microsoft and Amazon desks at SEA for both airlines, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of Microsoft employees (especially) didn’t want to leave a bit closer to home than SEA coming from the East Side or up North. Anecdotally, I know a number of people who have liked being able to come/leave from PAE instead of SEA for going to Microsoft.

Ultimately I wouldn’t be surprised if they had some trouble filling them, but if I were Avelo I’d be very curious about getting them for a good deal and seeing what sticks. Certainly with vacation demand coming back they can fill them at a low fare I would imagine.

If PAE Spokane and Boise get some traction, then I could see Missoula and Bozeman as well. Any destination that AS has four nonstops a day out of SEA is a possibility.

UA’s PAE-DEN had been high priced of late, which I think discouraged people from flying out of PAE. AS’s PAE fares can be high too.

I’ve seen this kind of thing before. Someone knowledgable in this area please explain this airline mentality. An airline jacks the price way up in a secondary market, which causes a lot of would be customers to instead drive to the bigger airport like PAE. For a family of 4, that could be a large price difference.

Then after the airline drives away potential traffic to the bigger airport, they discontinue the route stating that it wasn’t working.

I feel like this is what occurred with UA at PAE.

BoeingGuy wrote:

UA’s PAE-DEN had been high priced of late, which I think discouraged people from flying out of PAE. AS’s PAE fares can be high too.

I’ve seen this kind of thing before. Someone knowledgable in this area please explain this airline mentality. An airline jacks the price way up in a secondary market, which causes a lot of would be customers to instead drive to the bigger airport like PAE. For a family of 4, that could be a large price difference.

Then after the airline drives away potential traffic to the bigger airport, they discontinue the route stating that it wasn’t working.

I feel like this is what occurred with UA at PAE.

My choice was UA basic economy PAE-DEN for $300, or WN free bags and a decent seat SEA-DEN for $100. I like PAE, but not that much.

I think for UA's 6 slots, money will talk. Those slots will go to the highest bidder. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if AS monopolizes PAE.

Avelo BUR-PAE?

In all seriousness though, I could see AA picking up a slot or 2 for PHX and DFW with AS ceding PHX to AA

Can someone in the know please clarify for me: 6 slots available at PAE means "3 arrivals and 3 departures", or "6 arrivals and 6 departures"? I thought it was the former. In any case, it makes a difference to the ongoing discussion about what happens with the slots -- who wants and who gets them?

bb

SANFan wrote:

Can someone in the know please clarify for me: 6 slots available at PAE means "3 arrivals and 3 departures", or "6 arrivals and 6 departures"? I thought it was the former. In any case, it makes a difference to the ongoing discussion about what happens with the slots -- who wants and who gets them?

bb

It’s six slots landing and taking off I Believe because United has four daily SFO and two daily DEN.

DenverTed wrote:

BoeingGuy wrote:

UA’s PAE-DEN had been high priced of late, which I think discouraged people from flying out of PAE. AS’s PAE fares can be high too.

I’ve seen this kind of thing before. Someone knowledgable in this area please explain this airline mentality. An airline jacks the price way up in a secondary market, which causes a lot of would be customers to instead drive to the bigger airport like PAE. For a family of 4, that could be a large price difference.

Then after the airline drives away potential traffic to the bigger airport, they discontinue the route stating that it wasn’t working.

I feel like this is what occurred with UA at PAE.

My choice was UA basic economy PAE-DEN for $300, or WN free bags and a decent seat SEA-DEN for $100. I like PAE, but not that much.

Yep. My girlfriend’s son lives in Denver. She lives in Anacortes and I live in Mukilteo. Obviously DEN-PAE would be far more convenient flight for her to pick him up when he visits. But the PAE flight got so expensive, it wasn’t worth it, like you said. He would fly F9 to SEA instead.

DEN-BLI would be very convenient. Hopefully WN starts that.

Wneast wrote:

SANFan wrote:

Can someone in the know please clarify for me: 6 slots available at PAE means "3 arrivals and 3 departures", or "6 arrivals and 6 departures"? I thought it was the former. In any case, it makes a difference to the ongoing discussion about what happens with the slots -- who wants and who gets them?

bb

It’s six slots landing and taking off I Believe because United has four daily SFO and two daily DEN.

That’s correct. UA’s six slots are six arrivals and six departures. Six round trips.