Updates on Paine Field Commercial Passenger Service

https://www.heraldnet.com/business/new- ... e-service/

https://www.heraldnet.com/business/what ... n-everett/

Thanks for the link to the updates.

The777Man

Did we already know that Southwest was planning 3 OAK flights and 2 LAS flights? I don't remember them announcing which cities were going to be served for the 5 daily flights.

SeaDoo wrote:

Updates on Paine Field Commercial Passenger Service

https://www.heraldnet.com/business/new- ... e-service/

https://www.heraldnet.com/business/what ... n-everett/

The777Man wrote:

Thanks for the link to the updates.

The777Man

Yeah, but viewtopic.php?f=12&t=1393247 gives us:

3. As this is a discussion forum, do not post links, news stories or press releases without adding your own comments to them.

So, please, ...

PAE would be a nice alternative for those flying out of YVR just like BUF is for YYZ as PAE is much closer to Vancouver than SEA.

master14225 wrote:

PAE would be a nice alternative for those flying out of YVR just like BUF is for YYZ as PAE is much closer to Vancouver than SEA.

I’m thinking you are confusing it with BLI. PAE is in Everett and is only 37 miles from SEA, but YVR is well over 100 miles away, across a border.

so going East UA to DEN would be about it , or possibly AS thru PDX but that too is limited

RJNUT wrote:

so going East UA to DEN would be about it , or possibly AS thru PDX but that too is limited

Depending on where you’re going, LAS might be a decent connecting spot. People do it over PHX on AA all the time.

RJNUT wrote:

so going East UA to DEN would be about it , or possibly AS thru PDX but that too is limited

AS flies east from PDX to BOS, JFK, EWR, BWI, DCA, ATL, MSP, MCO, ORD and more.... and to every major Hawaiian island. Depending on the departure time from PAE it sounds like an excellent connection point and not having to deal with the awful drive to SEA.

AS is probably hitting 60-70% of the cities most Snohomish County residents would be looking at. I’ll be intrigued at the pricing of PAE vs. SEA. If PAE flights were $25 more I think knowledgeable travelers would jump on that in a heartbeat. The question is, how many travelers are know.edgable?

Thanks for the link.

Besides the new WN information (where & how often), the number of flights to each destination by AS was also new to me. Nice to know.

I, along with the airlines I'm sure, anxiously await the final approval and schedule release, and of course, the start of service!

bb

No, I know BLI exists, just PAE has better flight offerings and not everyone wants to fly Allegiant. BUF is also a 2 hour drive from YYZ but 50% of pax is from Toronto GTA so why wouldn't it be similar if Vancouver to Everett drive is 2 hours?

PlanesNTrains wrote:

master14225 wrote:

PAE would be a nice alternative for those flying out of YVR just like BUF is for YYZ as PAE is much closer to Vancouver than SEA.

I’m thinking you are confusing it with BLI. PAE is in Everett and is only 37 miles from SEA, but YVR is well over 100 miles away, across a border.

Revelation wrote:

SeaDoo wrote:

Updates on Paine Field Commercial Passenger Service

https://www.heraldnet.com/business/new- ... e-service/

https://www.heraldnet.com/business/what ... n-everett/

The777Man wrote:

Thanks for the link to the updates.

The777Man

Yeah, but viewtopic.php?f=12&t=1393247 gives us:

3. As this is a discussion forum, do not post links, news stories or press releases without adding your own comments to them.

So, please, ...

Thanks. I thought I had a topic deleted because I posted the links and commented on them.

I would have written something referring to the frequency of service to specific destinations. One of the links was also the first time I had been aware of where WN (Southwest) was going to be serving PAE.

Prost wrote:

AS is probably hitting 60-70% of the cities most Snohomish County residents would be looking at. I’ll be intrigued at the pricing of PAE vs. SEA. If PAE flights were $25 more I think knowledgeable travelers would jump on that in a heartbeat. The question is, how many travelers are know.edgable?

I think the market here is pretty savvy. It's also been highly publicized - the general public is quite aware of PAE and, outside of some of the nearby residents, have wanted passenger flights for a long time. Nobody but nobody is a fan of driving through that traffic to get to SEA.

FedEx is also tentatively planning on opening a cargo ramp at PAE in the 2020 time frame.

master14225 wrote:

No, I know BLI exists, just PAE has better flight offerings and not everyone wants to fly Allegiant. BUF is also a 2 hour drive from YYZ but 50% of pax is from Toronto GTA so why wouldn't it be similar if Vancouver to Everett drive is 2 hours?

PlanesNTrains wrote:

master14225 wrote:

PAE would be a nice alternative for those flying out of YVR just like BUF is for YYZ as PAE is much closer to Vancouver than SEA.

I’m thinking you are confusing it with BLI. PAE is in Everett and is only 37 miles from SEA, but YVR is well over 100 miles away, across a border.

I misread your statement - sorry about that. I read it as PAE is closer to YVR than PAE is to SEA.

Sounds like AS will be at gate 1 and WN and UA will share gate 2.

Speculation and Rumor on gate times are as followed.

ALASKAAir gate #1
...................(1) 06:00 SJC
Tow.............(1) 07:00 PDX
Tow.............(1) 08:00 LAX
PDX 08:20 (1) 09:10 PDX
SJC 09:20 (1) 10:10 SFO
LAS 10:20 (1) 11:10 SNA
PDX 11:20 (1) 12:10 LAX
LAX 12:20 (1) 13:10 PHX
SFO 13:20 (1) 14:10 PDX
SNA 14:20 (1) 15:20 SFO
PHX 15:45 (1) 17:00 LAS
PDX 17:30 (1) 18:20 SJC
LAX 18:45 (1) 19:40 PDX
SJC 20:30 (1) ...........Tow
SFO 21:15 (1) ...........Tow
PDX 21:45 (1) .................

United & Southwest gate #2
.................(2) 06:00 SFO (UA)
Tow...........(2) 07:15 OAK (WN)
Tow...........(2) 08:35 DEN (UA)
OAK 09:45 (2) 10:40 LAS (WN)
SFO 10:55 (2) 11:45 SFO (UA)
LAS 12:10 (2) 13:00 OAK (WN)
DEN 13:35 (2) 14:25 DEN (UA)
OAK 15:10 (2) 16:00 LAS (WN)
SFO 16:20 (2) 17:10 SFO (UA)
LAS 17:30 (2) 18:20 OAK (WN)
SFO 18:45 (2) 19:35 SFO (UA)
DEN 20:25 (2)............Tow (UA)
OAK 21:05 (2) ............Tow (WN)
SFO 21:45 (2)..................(UA)

Enjoy Flyguy

There might be more revenue potential using Embraer’s for SNA than SAN. AS already has their customer‘s data and they may know more Snohomish/N. King Co. residents would use a SNA than a SAN flight.

wnflyguy wrote:

Sounds like AS will be at gate 1 and WN and UA will share gate 2.

Speculation and Rumor on gate times are as followed.

ALASKAAir gate #1
...................(1) 06:00 SJC
Tow.............(1) 07:00 PDX
Tow.............(1) 08:00 LAX
PDX 08:20 (1) 09:10 PDX
SJC 09:20 (1) 10:10 SFO
LAS 10:20 (1) 11:10 SNA
PDX 11:20 (1) 12:10 LAX
LAX 12:20 (1) 13:10 PHX
SFO 13:20 (1) 14:10 PDX
SNA 14:20 (1) 15:20 SFO
PHX 15:45 (1) 17:00 LAS
PDX 17:30 (1) 18:20 SJC
LAX 18:45 (1) 19:40 PDX
SJC 20:30 (1) ...........Tow
SFO 21:15 (1) ...........Tow
PDX 21:45 (1) .................

United & Southwest gate #2
.................(2) 06:00 SFO (UA)
Tow...........(2) 07:15 OAK (WN)
Tow...........(2) 08:35 DEN (UA)
OAK 09:45 (2) 10:40 LAS (WN)
SFO 10:55 (2) 11:45 SFO (UA)
LAS 12:10 (2) 13:00 OAK (WN)
DEN 13:35 (2) 14:25 DEN (UA)
OAK 15:10 (2) 16:00 LAS (WN)
SFO 16:20 (2) 17:10 SFO (UA)
LAS 17:30 (2) 18:20 OAK (WN)
SFO 18:45 (2) 19:35 SFO (UA)
DEN 20:25 (2)............Tow (UA)
OAK 21:05 (2) ............Tow (WN)
SFO 21:45 (2)..................(UA)

Enjoy Flyguy

I think you’re close, but I’d say the morning DEN on UA will have as early of a departure as possible as it is going east, and I’m sure they’d like it to connect to the 1030am departure bank going east. 835am will have it miss that bank completely, and the middle of the day is dead at DEN. (12-3pm)

Coronado990 wrote:

There's always that! However, I recall SAN being on the original list and that is why I questioned it.

It was. https://blog.alaskaair.com/alaska-airlines/news/paine-field-destinations-announced/

Coronado990 wrote:

There's always that! However, I recall SAN being on the original list and that is why I questioned it.

Both were on the list. It appears one daily flight to SAN is missing on that schedule. Either they are waiting on it, dropping it, or it's an error.

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Coronado990 wrote:

There's always that! However, I recall SAN being on the original list and that is why I questioned it.

Both were on the list. It appears one daily flight to SAN is missing on that schedule. Either they are waiting on it, dropping it, or it's an error.

I think the second SJC flight must replace SAN. IIRC, there was only 1x SJC flight announced originally.

I live in Mukilteo. I’m personally looking forward to this.

BoeingGuy wrote:

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Coronado990 wrote:

There's always that! However, I recall SAN being on the original list and that is why I questioned it.

Both were on the list. It appears one daily flight to SAN is missing on that schedule. Either they are waiting on it, dropping it, or it's an error.

I think the second SJC flight must replace SAN. IIRC, there was only 1x SJC flight announced originally.
[threeid][/threeid]
I live in Mukilteo. I’m personally looking forward to this.

The second link in the op says:

Portland (3); Los Angeles (2); San Francisco (2); San Jose (2); Las Vegas (1); Orange County, California (1); Phoenix (1); San Diego (1).

It looks like a fourth PDX flight is listed instead. I just don't know if that's incorrect based on "speculation and rumors" or if they changed their mind. To me, 4 PDX makes a lot of sense.

PlanesNTrains wrote:

BoeingGuy wrote:

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Both were on the list. It appears one daily flight to SAN is missing on that schedule. Either they are waiting on it, dropping it, or it's an error.

I think the second SJC flight must replace SAN. IIRC, there was only 1x SJC flight announced originally.
[threeid][/threeid]
I live in Mukilteo. I’m personally looking forward to this.

The second link in the op says:


Portland (3); Los Angeles (2); San Francisco (2); San Jose (2); Las Vegas (1); Orange County, California (1); Phoenix (1); San Diego (1).

It looks like a fourth PDX flight is listed instead. I just don't know if that's incorrect based on "speculation and rumors" or if they changed their mind. To me, 4 PDX makes a lot of sense.

With WN planing 2 LAS I think AS would be smart to drop the 1 LAS in favor of 1 SAN. Keeping 4 daily to PDX feeds way more connections included LAS flights than just 3 daily.
2 SJC definitely caters to the Technology sector.
I'm actually surprised with WN doing 2 LAS over 2 SJC instead. I'm also in agreement Earlier DEN by UA would catch more system wide connections.
Again this is just a few fellow Airline nerds predicting flight schedules.
With only 5 daily slots WN could easily just not RON a aircraft at all in PAE and have just 5 turns.

Another Rumor has JAN 12 as opening day for PAE. Pending final approval.

Flyguy

Prost wrote:

AS is probably hitting 60-70% of the cities most Snohomish County residents would be looking at. I’ll be intrigued at the pricing of PAE vs. SEA. If PAE flights were $25 more I think knowledgeable travelers would jump on that in a heartbeat. The question is, how many travelers are know.edgable?

The parking fee difference alone would probably save that in 2-3 days, and I also just priced Uber and saw a $30 difference from a south Snohomish County location.

Combine that with a shorter drive, less traffic risk, and I'm strongly hoping less time needed to get from drop-off or parking to the gate, and it's worth well over $25 to me.

But I presume lease and landing fees will be lower, which should offset some of the worse economy of scale of the smaller operations at PAE. In that case, if the ticket prices are significantly more than SeaTac, it's probably due to really strong demand.

HPRamper wrote:

I think the market here is pretty savvy. It's also been highly publicized - the general public is quite aware of PAE and, outside of some of the nearby residents, have wanted passenger flights for a long time. Nobody but nobody is a fan of driving through that traffic to get to SEA.

FedEx is also tentatively planning on opening a cargo ramp at PAE in the 2020 time frame.

The opponents have given the commercial service plans tons of free publicity. The region is well-aware this is coming, and it's a viable option even for many north King County residents, in addition to Snohomish, Skagit, and possibly even Whatcom County residents.

This is the first I've heard about FedEx. Interesting.

Holy Schmoly.

There's going to be a lot of additional capacity to LAS, with 2x 737 and a EMB170. That's in addition to Alaska's, Southwest and Spirit's service from SEA (36 mi S), and Allegiant from BLI (74 mi N). I am kind of surprised there's no GEG service, and that WN are not flying to DEN

That certainly rings the death bell of AS returning their BLI-LAS service. (which was 10x weekly at one point). I suppose when the price of oil goes up, the C$ goes up, and then Canadians will start travelling to the US in larger volume; so probably 1-2 yrs out until that's a possibility.

wnflyguy wrote:

Sounds like AS will be at gate 1 and WN and UA will share gate 2.

Speculation and Rumor on gate times are as followed.

ALASKAAir gate #1
...................(1) 06:00 SJC
Tow.............(1) 07:00 PDX
Tow.............(1) 08:00 LAX
PDX 08:20 (1) 09:10 PDX
SJC 09:20 (1) 10:10 SFO
LAS 10:20 (1) 11:10 SNA
PDX 11:20 (1) 12:10 LAX
LAX 12:20 (1) 13:10 PHX
SFO 13:20 (1) 14:10 PDX
SNA 14:20 (1) 15:20 SFO
PHX 15:45 (1) 17:00 LAS
PDX 17:30 (1) 18:20 SJC
LAX 18:45 (1) 19:40 PDX
SJC 20:30 (1) ...........Tow
SFO 21:15 (1) ...........Tow
PDX 21:45 (1) .................

I don't know how concrete your speculation is, but the LAS timing seems unlikely. Right now AS have no EMB170 service to LAS , and it seems unlikely they'd park one at LAS from 1930(ish) until a 745 departure the next day, they really don't have the gate space at LAS to do that.

wnflyguy wrote:

Speculation and Rumor on gate times are as followed.

[...]
LAX 12:20 (1) 13:10 PHX
SFO 13:20 (1) 14:10 PDX
SNA 14:20 (1) 15:20 SFO

[...]
OAK 09:45 (2) 10:40 LAS (WN)
SFO 10:55 (2) 11:45 SFO (UA)
LAS 12:10 (2) 13:00 OAK (WN)
DEN 13:35 (2) 14:25 DEN (UA)

Boy those are some tight schedules. Wonder what happens if a flight is running more than 20 minutes late? Or the plane breaks at the gate?

Yes, 24 flights thru 2 gates is definitely going to be tight. It can certainly be done if everything is always on time and the weather is clear and beautiful in the Seattle-area. That being said, good luck to the 2-gate airport operations!

It's getting near and exciting; I can't wait 'til the flights begin - especially the one to SAN!

bb

SANFan wrote:

Yes, 24 flights thru 2 gates is definitely going to be tight. It can certainly be done if everything is always on time and the weather is clear and beautiful in the Seattle-area. That being said, good luck to the 2-gate airport operations!

It's getting near and exciting; I can't wait 'til the flights begin - especially the one to SAN!

bb

Yes it's going to be quite entertaining especially when SFO on a Ground delay program. Hopefully since it's a private run terminal they will have rules ,requirements and restrictions in place so nobody can hold a gate hostage for ATC flow reasons.
SNA pre Terminal C had huge issues with this during it's shared gate situation. I remember the Airport wouldn't get involved saying it's up to the Airlines to work it out.

Other PAE rumors saying AS will have SAT/SUN Hawaii service.

Flyguy

chrisair wrote:

wnflyguy wrote:

Speculation and Rumor on gate times are as followed.

[...]
LAX 12:20 (1) 13:10 PHX
SFO 13:20 (1) 14:10 PDX
SNA 14:20 (1) 15:20 SFO

[...]
OAK 09:45 (2) 10:40 LAS (WN)
SFO 10:55 (2) 11:45 SFO (UA)
LAS 12:10 (2) 13:00 OAK (WN)
DEN 13:35 (2) 14:25 DEN (UA)

Boy those are some tight schedules. Wonder what happens if a flight is running more than 20 minutes late? Or the plane breaks at the gate?

It's going to be tight, but I also don't think the last flight out will be 1940. I could see departures as late as 2030 or 2100 and maybe a 0530 first departure for DEN. This will allow more wiggle room throughout the day. Also, does an E175 really need 55 minutes of turn time? I understand the times listed above are just speculation. I also question what's the plan if flights are delayed. Will they have airstairs and allow flights to deplane/board that way so aircraft don't get stacked up waiting for delayed flights to vacate the jetway?

SANFan wrote:

Yes, 24 flights thru 2 gates is definitely going to be tight. It can certainly be done if everything is always on time and the weather is clear and beautiful in the Seattle-area. That being said, good luck to the 2-gate airport operations!

It's getting near and exciting; I can't wait 'til the flights begin - especially the one to SAN!

bb

WN is actually in a similar situation at DAL where WN shares Gate 15 with DL at DAL, and there are usually at least 7 to 8 WN departures along with 5 DL departures a day out of Gate 15 at DAL (at least on weekdays and Sundays).

Would an AC flight to YVR be in the realm of possibilities in the future?
Also looks like airport is at capacity even before opening, could they theoretically build a third gate?

mict wrote:

looks like airport is at capacity even before opening, could they theoretically build a third gate?

I've been wondering the same. Of course, it remains to be seen how all of these new flights do, but I have to think DL in particular and perhaps AA, F9, etc. may be interested in serving PAE too (let alone the possibility of AS, UA and/or WN wanting to add more flights). It's going to be awfully hard to offer a high end boutique experience with this many flights out of 2 gates, especially when so many of them are to/from chronically delayed SFO...

Or just a "walk gate" where passengers can walk to the plane instead of using a jet bridge and board using stairs. This exists in YYZ and BRU for exemple. Would prevent a cascade of delays if an airplane were to block a gate. Less convenient than the jet bridge for sure but far better than a bus gate.

Since ATS at AE does work on WN aircraft, be easy to schedule a bird that is going to get worked on and have it as the last WN flight in. Switch off with a returning plane. Be easier than the scheduling of SEA-PAE mx flights that they do.

master14225 wrote:

No, I know BLI exists, just PAE has better flight offerings and not everyone wants to fly Allegiant. BUF is also a 2 hour drive from YYZ but 50% of pax is from Toronto GTA so why wouldn't it be similar if Vancouver to Everett drive is 2 hours?

PlanesNTrains wrote:

master14225 wrote:

PAE would be a nice alternative for those flying out of YVR just like BUF is for YYZ as PAE is much closer to Vancouver than SEA.

I’m thinking you are confusing it with BLI. PAE is in Everett and is only 37 miles from SEA, but YVR is well over 100 miles away, across a border.

Because YVR fares are actually cheaper than SEA on many long flights.

mict wrote:

Would an AC flight to YVR be in the realm of possibilities in the future?
Also looks like airport is at capacity even before opening, could they theoretically build a third gate?

I wouldn't think this would he real high up. The airport is north of Seattle, somewhat at the edge of where the horrible traffic ends. According to Google, Seattle to Vancouver is 142 miles. PAE is north of Seattle. Everett to Vancouver shows to be 114 miles. I would't think there would be much of a market when one can drive or take the train. I would think someone flying to Hawaii would come before someone flying to Canada.

I live in the area and feel PAE will not be the godsend everyone thinks.
Traffic will be tough, with a lot of traffic lights from I5 to Airport Rd. Boeing shift changed also clog up local streets. Uber prices will go up. Certain times of year the fog doesn't burn off until 9-10AM.
Travel weekly, getting to SeaTac from greater Everett isn't impossible. 1 hour for 38 miles is not tough compared to other cities.

Is there an agreement on curfew times/ Hours of operation for the PAE scheduled airline service?

Flyguy

It's a shame that one of those three WN OAK flights isn't flying to SMF instead!

mict wrote:

Would an AC flight to YVR be in the realm of possibilities in the future?
Also looks like airport is at capacity even before opening, could they theoretically build a third gate?

Unlikely, I would think most Canadians would drive to PAE, as that part of the highway is pretty good (it only gets back just a little south of PAE).

The reason Canadians fly from BLI, BUF, etc, is on US destinations, you avoid international airline taxes. It's often quoted that Canadian taxes are high and that's why Canadians drive across the border, but it's actually the US taxes levied on international arrivals; for example on this flight from YXX/Abbotsford) to LAS there's $17 in CA fees/taxes but $45 in US fees/taxes. Driving across the border is free, and basically saves you $45 on your ticket.

Air transportation charges $96.06
CA Air Travellers Security Charge (ATSC) $12.10
CA Goods and Services Tax (GST) $5.41
US transportation Tax (International)$23.79
US APHIS User Fee $5.15
US Immigration User Fee $9.10
US Customs User Fee $7.50

SeaDoo wrote:

mict wrote:

Would an AC flight to YVR be in the realm of possibilities in the future?
Also looks like airport is at capacity even before opening, could they theoretically build a third gate?

I wouldn't think this would he real high up. The airport is north of Seattle, somewhat at the edge of where the horrible traffic ends. According to Google, Seattle to Vancouver is 142 miles. PAE is north of Seattle. Everett to Vancouver shows to be 114 miles. I would't think there would be much of a market when one can drive or take the train. I would think someone flying to Hawaii would come before someone flying to Canada.

I can't imagine AC being remotely interested in this. They're already in a spot where their SEA routes are subject to alterations and so far as I know, PAE isn't planning on customs/pre-clearance. For that matter, if you're willing to deal with the border driving to YVR, you might as well roll down to SEA.

Are there going to be remote stands next to or near the terminal? This I think is going to be pretty important considering 24 flights out of just two gates.

On a related note, starting next Spring, the PAE terminal will be just a short walk away from a Swift Green Line stop:
https://www.communitytransit.org/swiftgreen

So heard the hours of airline operations at PAE will be from 05:00-23:00 7 days a week.
Each airline will be allowed 2 RON aircraft each. With first rights to gate RON aircraft going to AS and UA.
UA has elected to give up it's Gate RON assignment to WN.
Sounds like WN will have 05:15 to OAK and 09:00 tow on to LAS. Between 5:30-8:15 UA will tow on a 06:30 DEN then a 07:45 SFO flight.

Sounds interesting.
Flyguy

Those hours are going to raise some additional controversy.

Previously, there had been an expectation among some local leaders, although mistaken, that the hours of operation were limited to 7AM to 10PM.

The actual last status I can find is that the county was asking Propeller to seek voluntary agreements with the airlines to limit flights outside that window to no more than 4 per night. I don't know if agreements were actually implemented.

Fortunately, it looks like just a single E175 and 737 flight each. Looking back through Flightaware, on the other hand, it appears departures before 7AM are currently not common.

I have mixed feeling about this whole thing...I live in Lynnwood, and it will be great to not suffer the drive to SeaTac, but once light rail is out this way, I think the shine will wear off PAE. Also, the powers that be have NOT addressed the increased traffic and parking for this expansion. And northbound I-5 traffic from the U District to Everett is bad all day now. So unless ligh rail has a stop at Boeing/ PAE, it is gonna be a mess. As for passenger traffic, they can add all the gates they want, flights are limited by the NUMBER of flights/day..I think it is set at 24 right now.

The PAE setup is to attract Canadians to fly out of there, otherwise I don't see this setup working efficiently. A much more reason to fly out of PAE than YVR or BLI. It is like BUF and how it's for those who don't want to fly out of YYZ.