With the 2018 close to winding up, why not look at the possibilities for 2019 and what may happen (pending fuel situation and AIAL being able to cope)
VIRGIN/TIGERAIR - is it a matter of when not if Virgin decide to throw Tiger into the market. Question is on what routes. Will they look at secondary ports in Australia to primary cities
AVV - AKL
NTL - AKL replacing Virgin depending on next months start-up success
CBR - AKL
HBA - AKL
or would they look at primary SYD cities to the smaller ports in NZ
SYD - ROT MEL - ROT
SYD - PMR MEL - PMR BNE - PMR
SYD - HLZ MEL - HLZ BNE - HLZ
SYD - DUD MEL - DUD BNE - DUD
or would they even consider both and aggressively go after Air NZ. Tiger currently operate 4 737-800's in the Australian domestic market that could quite easily operate up to 56 flights per week Transtasman
Don't appear to concerned with NZ market. They seem to maintain normal service with little change over the year or are they waiting for the AA JV to be approved and then look at something
Do they stay reasonably stagnant or do they look at opportunities in the smaller markets.
Already going year round, just a matter of consolidating AKL-SFO while codesharing/revenue sharing on NZ's AKL-IAH, AKL-ORD, and AKL-LAX routes.
If QF/AA JV is approved, do they look at AKL-LAX year round and coordinate schedule to feed QF AKL-MEL/BNE flights. Do they consider DFW-AKL-MEL as a supplement to QF's DFW-SYD service
Giving VIRGIN is now alone would DL consider AKL and coordinate schedule to feed Virgins BNE/MEL/OOL flights. Only option would be LAX-AKL as they would probably to ATL-SYD before AKL
Continue to slowly increase frequency with possible change to 359 depending on delivery and importance of market
Still reviewing the SouthPac. Potential next year to add seasonal service from YVR-AKL instead of NZ. Leave NZ at 7 flights per week and AC add 3 or 4 flights per week over peak period. This is downtime in Europe and would allow additional usage of an aircraft. Or would they branch out and attempt YYZ-AKL given how popular travel between NZ and Canada is.
CHINA SOUTHERN/CHINA EASTERN/AIR CHINA
Do they branch out into additional secondary Chinese cities as they have done in Australia or do they continue to focus on CAN/PVG/PEK respectively. Are they prepared to sit back and allow a smaller Chinese Carrier to take the opportunity into AKL.
Several secondary cities to consider Haikou (HAK), Hangzhou (HGH) MU, Kunming (KMG) MU
HAINAN, TAINJAN and SICHUAN
Continue to maintain schedules, or do they increase via secondary cities from there primary city
Chance of FOC - AKL with 788. COuld be done with 2 - 3 flights per week.
BEIJING CAPITAL, SHANGHAI AIRLINES, SHENZHEN AIRLINES
With the carriers interest to grown Internationally, how far away are they
How long before the drop BNE and go non-stop to TPE, or do they add AKL-TPE service while maintaining AKL-BNE-TPE service given this is a daily/year round flight
Supplement AKL-SIN or leave it two SQ/NZ to run 3 flights per day unchallenged.
Given how NZ has tried to establish seasonal market but now pulled out. Would VN consider replacing in market with 787
Possible but all have tried before and departed for various reasons but with NZ's growing popularity with tourists, would they consider a second attempt
These rumours are always present, especially with NZ growing Indian population. Will the Indian community remain happy with flying via SIN/BKK etc to connect to India or will they start to demand a Non-stop service.
Consolidate and operate single aircraft type for more than 3 months
Gradual increase in frequency over the next few years
Pretty well established now. Very little change seen
Is KUL-OOL-AKL doing sufficient to consider KUL-AKL nonstop or do they branch out and look at BKK/MNL with there subsidiaries
All appear to be happy with the seasonal increments each year ad reducing back during the low period. No real threat from anyone given CX/SQ codeshare with NZ, while KE has no real threat on the horizon. OZ tried and left, whether they will again.
With NZ pulling out of HND due slot and 789 issues, would NH look at stepping in and running HND-AKL. NZ continues to develop KIX-AKL. Would they consider making an agreement with NH and look at consolidating service. Give NH KIX-AKL with its domestic feed into KIX and give NZ some decent slots in HND and have NH feed into NZ's HND service.
Will depend on fuel situation. Emirates already reducing services to AKL (however, they appear to be doing this system wide at the moment). Is this due to runway maintenance in DXB or are they starting to struggle. If fuel does not increase too dramatically, possibly more AKL-DXB non-stop late next year or do they look at further Asian cities to add into AKL
Qatar seems happy and quiet with AKL. Maybe increase in frequency late next year, again subject to fuel.
Does ETIHAD consider looking at AKL given available frequency in UAE AUST-NZ bilateral and possibly replace VA in a certain market to offer upscale product.
AIR NEW ZEALAND.
They will continue to defend their turf stoutly. How long before they look at additional Australian cities or go year round in others. May be a quiet consolidation period for long haul while they continue to work through Rolls Royce issues and wait for the NxGen ULR aircraft for NYC and Sth American expansion. Possible increase in current Asian markets as engine issues get resolved.
There are many more choices and am interested to see what you all think and the possibilities that exist
Wow! Awesome summary.
- I don't think we'll see Tiger next year, Virgin need to secure the Tasman under them own steam and secure enough market share before they introduce their low-cost operator.
- I don't think we'll see Tiger in the Pacific, well not until Tiger is established on over AKL. VA will want to supplement Pacific flying with some Australian connections so will hand that to VA
- New Tasman markets will be interesting. There isn't much left outside HBA and CBR, we'll like see more routes vs new destinations.
Qantas / AA
- I'd love to see Qantas commence North America flying ex AKL in addition to AA.
- See AA move to AKL-DFW and QF to pick up AKL-LAX and both to codehare
- I'd still like to see DL do ATL-AKL as ATL-SYD is a touch too long
- It could help strength VA in AKL also but also allow an AKL connection to East Coast USA
- Perhaps YYZ-AKL, alliance time with NZ with NZ doing YVR-AKL
- I hope NZ has opened the door for them.
- I don't expect anything anytime soon.
Direct could be interesting. They pick up a lot of traffic Tasman only. Will be interesting to see if they value that of believe they can take enough PAX direct to Asia.
Key for 2019 in my mind
- Tasman will see 3 major carriers going at it. QF group, NZ and VA
- China continues to grow
- The Middle East will flatten out
- South America will continue to status quo for LATAM and be nurtured and NZ
- USA will continue to grow hopefully by QF/AA, UA will be status quo and nothing much from NZ.
- The rest of Asia will be largely status quo
We also can't forget..
- NZ's widebody announcement
- QF fleet updates.
If I had a wish list it would be
- NZ orders A350 with options to replace 77W
- DL open ATL-AKL
- AC commences YYZ-AKL
- BA opens AKL over North America codeshare with QF/AA
- QF commences AKL-LAX codeshare with AA, BA
- NZ announces second China port (if they had a full operational fleet)
- VA picks up a solid share of the market on the Tasman and continues to establish themselves as a strong full-service carrier.
- Second Hawaii port opened
- New South East Asian leisure route opened (Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia)