Gasman
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:16 pm

NZ6 wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
buying off competitors... the alliance was approved by those over oversee these issues so, maybe if you actually know details of how it's worked out you may then understand it's not anti-competitive.

Is this a joke? "The alliances were approved by those who oversee these issues ... so, not anti-competitive" - yeah, eh, approved in many cases, wrongly. For example, the CX JV was predicated on a 3rd carrier being unlikely to enter AKL - HKG - yet HX did enter the market. Why then, is there a need for NZ to get the privilege of coordinating with its key competitor on AKL - HKG, when both it and CX's frequency offering on AKL - HKG hasn't really changed post-JV? Is the consumer better off? A measly 3x weekly 3-month service to CHC (which took several years post-JV approval to eventuate)? Please - spare me!

Cheers,

C.


Again, believe what you may and by all means lodge a complaint with the Commerce Commission!

Anyone who believes the Commerce Comission's charter is to provide a level playing field and protect the consumer is naive in the extreme. It exists to protect certain business interests above others and is definitely subject to political influence and bias.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:20 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
buying off competitors... the alliance was approved by those over oversee these issues so, maybe if you actually know details of how it's worked out you may then understand it's not anti-competitive.

Is this a joke? "The alliances were approved by those who oversee these issues ... so, not anti-competitive" - yeah, eh, approved in many cases, wrongly. For example, the CX JV was predicated on a 3rd carrier being unlikely to enter AKL - HKG - yet HX did enter the market. Why then, is there a need for NZ to get the privilege of coordinating with its key competitor on AKL - HKG, when both it and CX's frequency offering on AKL - HKG hasn't really changed post-JV? Is the consumer better off? A measly 3x weekly 3-month service to CHC (which took several years post-JV approval to eventuate)? Please - spare me!

Cheers,

C.


Why is it you get so defensive Planemanofnz? So NZ applies for a JV with CX, it is approved on the basis of no third carrier entering the market, HX then ‘unexpectedly’ enters which is apparently NZ’s fault, I’d say HKG-AKL for both NZ/CX was marginal to loss making a lot of the year before the JV, but allowing the carriers to work together co ordinating fares etc has made a difference along with the boom in traffic plus it’s rightly or wrongly knocked HX back, they say AKL does well despite reducing flights, must be yield which is the same for NZ/CX despite not increasing flights, as to CHC this likely wouldn’t have happened at all without the JV and like AKL before they will do ok for the peak period, it’s still a question for me as to weather CHC goes year round or AKL goes 3 daily year round first? I think both eventually.


Also,
1/ Seats haven't reduced between alliance carriers on this route :checkmark:
2/ New carriers have entered the market which adds to ASK between AKL-HKG :checkmark:
3/ He's also looking at AKLHKG in isolation where in fact CX is justing hubbing over HKG to/from Europe and other parts of Asia both of which are highly competitive markets from NZ. Many of these they are in competition with SQ/NZ on as well.
4/ By working in coordination the customer is offered more flight times and connectivity. :checkmark:

Just a hypothetical scenario.
Each carrier operates 1x daily AKL-HKG
Both carriers are happy but can't support their second flight. By pooling your selling power NZ in NZ, CX in Asia & Europe you get the additional 3rd flight.

As I've said, it's just about schedules, it's about how you get fill a flight and also make money in a comeditive market, a market such as NZ-Europe vv for example.
 
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qf789
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:20 am

First flight for first A321neo for NZ should be later today

https://twitter.com/A320Archive/status/ ... 7926405121
Forum Moderator
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:18 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Why is it you get so defensive Planemanofnz?

You call it defensive. I call it objective.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:19 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
allowing the carriers to work together co ordinating fares etc has made a difference ...

Yet you don't articulate how.

Let's look at what MOT themselves said in 2015, in reviewing the JV:

- "There is limited evidence that the alliance has improved connectivity ..."
- "... we are not convinced that the alliance has resulted in significant connectivity benefits"
- FFP benefits were "... modest"
- Ultimately, "There is no evidence that consumers have benefitted from cost savings or operational synergies"

What an endorsement! :roll:

See: https://www.transport.govt.nz/assets/Up ... dacted.pdf.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:23 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
I’d say HKG-AKL for both NZ/CX was marginal to loss making a lot of the year before the JV

In 2011 - the last full year pre-JV - CX explicitly referred to AKL as "satisfactory" in its annual report. It was boosting summer capacity to 7x weekly 744's and 5x weekly 343's. Nevertheless, the MOT application said: "... prior to the Alliance both of the Applicants had found the Auckland – Hong Kong route to be a challenging one, due in part to the significant decline in visitor arrivals from Europe, as well as increasing fuel prices and challenging economic conditions generally. This saw total passenger numbers on services between Hong Kong and Auckland decline in the years prior to the Alliance."

Therefore, I put it to you that:

1) The "decline in the years prior to the Alliance" was down to the aftermath and recovery from the recession - not something specific to AKL-HKG, and certainly not something to warrant the route being given a JV. CX was finding AKL "satisfactory," and deploying 744's here for the summers.

2) What's made a difference hasn't been the JV - it's been the fact that arrivals to New Zealand from Hong Kong, China and Europe have boomed, fuel decreased significantly for most of the past 5 years, and economic conditions also boomed (AKL and HKG seeing massive property bubbles).

Cheers,

C.
Last edited by planemanofnz on Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:46 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:43 am

Let's clear some things up!

NZ6 wrote:
Seats haven't reduced between alliance carriers on this route :checkmark:

:redflag: No - for example:

- CX (NS: -26%): used to fly 10x weekly to AKL with 343's (2650 seats), whereas now, it flies 7x weekly with 359's (1960).
- CX (NW: -1%): used to fly 12x weekly to AKL with 744's/343's (3978), whereas now, it flies 14x weekly with 359's (3920).

NZ6 wrote:
By working in coordination the customer is offered more flight times and connectivity. :checkmark:

:redflag: - of marginal/no benefit to the vast majority - see MOT's analysis above.

NZ6 wrote:
New carriers have entered the market which adds to ASK between AKL-HKG :checkmark:

:redflag: - no thanks to the JV, without which there could perhaps be even more!

NZ6 wrote:
By pooling your selling power NZ in NZ, CX in Asia & Europe you get the additional 3rd flight.

LOL - except we haven't got that 3rd daily YR flight, after 6 years of JV. :lol:

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:55 am

NZ6 wrote:
... if you're wanting to dislike NZ then you can piggy back it for go to town with it.

This is where I think you're confused - it's not about 'liking' or 'disliking' NZ, it's about objectivity.

Objectively:

- NZ does not fly to "everywhere" in New Zealand.
- NZ has mismanaged its AKL intl lounge situation.
- NZ's CX JV is of questionable value to consumers.

When I make statements like these, don't mistake it for me taking a disliking to NZ - it's just fact.

:)

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:02 am

FlyMySky has put back its start date by a week for AKL - WRE.

... the company's co-owner Keith McKenzie said last minute hitches had delayed the launch. Signs had not been delivered and engineers were waiting for a part from Canada for one plane.

Wish them a successful launch - they've got balls, for sure! :bouncy:

See: https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business ... nd-delayed.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:03 am

air2there seems to be going into liquidation, which is sad to see - hope they can make a comeback.

See: http://3rdlevelnz.blogspot.com/2018/10/ ... great.html.

Cheers,

C.
 
Deepinsider
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:27 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
... if you're wanting to dislike NZ then you can piggy back it for go to town with it.

This is where I think you're confused - it's not about 'liking' or 'disliking' NZ, it's about objectivity.

Objectively:

- NZ does not fly to "everywhere" in New Zealand.
- NZ has mismanaged its AKL intl lounge situation.
- NZ's CX JV is of questionable value to consumers.

When I make statements like these, don't mistake it for me taking a disliking to NZ - it's just fact.

:)

Cheers,

C.

When I make statements like these, ........ - it's just fact.
Wow, that's a confident assertion!
NZ/CX JV (and SQ for that matter) just happen to be really
good value to this consumer. (value not just in dollars, but
choice of extra flights, seamless through connections and
points for example) We often go to Thailand, and TG have
an erratic, often inferior hard product. The JV's give us more
choice of timings, and likeable stopovers along the way.
That's a fact.
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:32 am

planemanofnz wrote:
Is the consumer better off?

Are they worse off?? No. I don't think so at all, The fares for HKG aren't increased, in fact other carriers like TG/SQ/QFCA have really dropped their fares to HKG to compete, and the HKG based passengers are happy because they can book CX, with a better schedule offering and the AKL/CHC passengers can book on NZ which they can both pay for using their respective points generating credit cards.

You treat NZ like it is a big player with a lot of clout globally, these arrangements might get by the parochial government we have here, but in the real unregulated world would never hope to have the influence to affect the agreement within China/HK/Singapore/US governments who are economically free market capitalists.

I have said it before, and I will say it again. The net result is that NZ is a positive influence on the New Zealand market not a negative one. There are airlines that would not have remained (like UA, CA, VA and more besides) if it wasn't for NZ feed/codeshares and interline arrangements and without NZ trailblazing certain routes first(which makes new airlines pay attention to the market) we wouldn't have carriers like PR who have tested the market as a result and succeeded.

It's the same mentality as the champagne socialists who say capitalism is bad, and who forget that without it they would not have the lifestyle and the privileges they do enjoy.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:39 am

Deepinsider wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
NZ's CX JV is of questionable value to consumers.

Wow, that's a confident assertion! NZ/CX JV ... really good value to this consumer ... choice of extra flights.

I said the JV is of questionable value to consumers, and this is a fact - not an assertion. There are real questions around the extent of the benefit of those additional scheduling choices. Indeed, in MOT's case, they thought "in many cases the scheduling benefit is likely to be of marginal value." I accept that for you, the JV - and its greater schedules - may be very valuable, but you likely aren't in the majority?

Cheers,

C.
Last edited by planemanofnz on Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:07 am

aerorobnz wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
Is the consumer better off?

Are they worse off??

Arguably, yes. On price - IMO, most important - they are worse off. As MOT notes, "... the fact that the applicants have lost market share while increasing fares and reducing capacity is evidence that the attractiveness of the alliance to (most) consumers has reduced, relative to other airlines."

aerorobnz wrote:
There are airlines that would not have remained (like UA, CA, VA and more besides) if it wasn't for NZ ...

On just what basis do you assert that CA, VA and others remaining in AKL is dependent on NZ? On the contrary - how many more airlines would be here, if it weren't for NZ's JV's? I accept that there are benefits, like SQ's new flight, but equally, there are counter-factuals the other way too.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:27 am

CZ is slightly reducing frequency on CAN - AKL over the NW period - instead of 14x weekly, it'll be doing between 10x-14x weekly, depending on the period.

28OCT18 – 03NOV18 13 weekly
04NOV18 – 18DEC18 11 weekly
19DEC18 – 06JAN19 14 weekly
07JAN19 – 17FEB19 12 weekly
18FEB19 – 30MAR19 10 weekly


See: https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... f-24oct18/.

Given the short notice and small size of the adjustment in capacity, I wonder if this is related to a fleet resourcing issue, given the very small CZ 789 sub-fleet?

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 2:02 pm

Not only slightly reducing but changing the equipment back to 787 for all service. Previously wasn't it a mix of 77W and 787? Clearly the 77Ws have other markets that demand their attention more important than NZ.
Plane mad!
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 4:17 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Why is it you get so defensive Planemanofnz?

You call it defensive. I call it objective.

Cheers,

C.


Why do you object to everything then? Just because you don’t like it or disagree? You are entitled to your opinion but at times you are entitled to listen to others aswell.

planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
allowing the carriers to work together co ordinating fares etc has made a difference ...

Yet you don't articulate how.

Let's look at what MOT themselves said in 2015, in reviewing the JV:

- "There is limited evidence that the alliance has improved connectivity ..."
- "... we are not convinced that the alliance has resulted in significant connectivity benefits"
- FFP benefits were "... modest"
- Ultimately, "There is no evidence that consumers have benefitted from cost savings or operational synergies"

What an endorsement! :roll:

See: https://www.transport.govt.nz/assets/Up ... dacted.pdf.

Cheers,

C.


And yet it was re approved. Rightly or wrongly.

planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
I’d say HKG-AKL for both NZ/CX was marginal to loss making a lot of the year before the JV

In 2011 - the last full year pre-JV - CX explicitly referred to AKL as "satisfactory" in its annual report. It was boosting summer capacity to 7x weekly 744's and 5x weekly 343's. Nevertheless, the MOT application said: "... prior to the Alliance both of the Applicants had found the Auckland – Hong Kong route to be a challenging one, due in part to the significant decline in visitor arrivals from Europe, as well as increasing fuel prices and challenging economic conditions generally. This saw total passenger numbers on services between Hong Kong and Auckland decline in the years prior to the Alliance."

Therefore, I put it to you that:

1) The "decline in the years prior to the Alliance" was down to the aftermath and recovery from the recession - not something specific to AKL-HKG, and certainly not something to warrant the route being given a JV. CX was finding AKL "satisfactory," and deploying 744's here for the summers.

2) What's made a difference hasn't been the JV - it's been the fact that arrivals to New Zealand from Hong Kong, China and Europe have boomed, fuel decreased significantly for most of the past 5 years, and economic conditions also boomed (AKL and HKG seeing massive property bubbles).

Cheers,

C.


Satisfactory probably meant it wasn’t in danger of the chopping board, ie it benefits the overall network yet both airlines said it was a challenging route. CX went double daily seasonally way back in 2004/05 with 343’s, the 744’s came back between 2008/09-2011/12 always daily for a 3 month period, the year you mention 11/12 was the only year overall was less than 2 daily with 12 weekly.

planemanofnz wrote:
Let's clear some things up!

NZ6 wrote:
Seats haven't reduced between alliance carriers on this route :checkmark:

:redflag: No - for example:

- CX (NS: -26%): used to fly 10x weekly to AKL with 343's (2650 seats), whereas now, it flies 7x weekly with 359's (1960).
- CX (NW: -1%): used to fly 12x weekly to AKL with 744's/343's (3978), whereas now, it flies 14x weekly with 359's (3920).

NZ6 wrote:
By working in coordination the customer is offered more flight times and connectivity. :checkmark:

:redflag: - of marginal/no benefit to the vast majority - see MOT's analysis above.

NZ6 wrote:
New carriers have entered the market which adds to ASK between AKL-HKG :checkmark:

:redflag: - no thanks to the JV, without which there could perhaps be even more!

NZ6 wrote:
By pooling your selling power NZ in NZ, CX in Asia & Europe you get the additional 3rd flight.

LOL - except we haven't got that 3rd daily YR flight, after 6 years of JV. :lol:

Cheers,

C.


CX ran 10 weekly year round from 2003/05, it may have come back for 1-2 years much later I can’t recall. NZ in 2003/05 still ran 763’s to HKG, they may have been less than daily in NS IIRC, we now have a Daily A359 CX and daily 77E NZ.

NW as I said was generally 7 744/7 343 for CX, now it’s 7 359/ 7 77W, this will be the 77W 4th year to AKL, now 10 abreast so another 28 seats this year per day.

NZ6 has inside knowledge, it’s ok to admit he knows more than you sometimes.

You haven’t got the third daily no but CHC has a seasonal service, third daily AKL and year round CHC will happen imo,
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 4:22 pm

NZ321 wrote:
Not only slightly reducing but changing the equipment back to 787 for all service. Previously wasn't it a mix of 77W and 787? Clearly the 77Ws have other markets that demand their attention more important than NZ.


These are brand new 789’s, they are 2 class so no more F and W, overall capacity increase over 1 788/77W. Was announced some time ago. CZ have plenty of 77W’s but are realising Imo they need to focus on yield which is increasing Y capacity , removing F and W and using a more fuel efficient aircraft.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:12 pm

So we're a couple of days out from NZ/VA alliance being behind us, I heard VA on the radio promoting their 'full service' flights for the first time yesterday which was new and great to hear.

What are we expecting from VA next week? BAU? Aggressive sales campaign, more and maybe an aggressive advertising campaign? Media Release on new services or products?

Just a fresh talking point as I'm not going to respond currently on either the lounge or CX topics, it's not enjoyable for readers when we start to battle out who's opinion is right.
 
nascarnut
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:49 pm

With the 2018 close to winding up, why not look at the possibilities for 2019 and what may happen (pending fuel situation and AIAL being able to cope)

VIRGIN/TIGERAIR - is it a matter of when not if Virgin decide to throw Tiger into the market. Question is on what routes. Will they look at secondary ports in Australia to primary cities
AVV - AKL
NTL - AKL replacing Virgin depending on next months start-up success
CBR - AKL
HBA - AKL
or would they look at primary SYD cities to the smaller ports in NZ
SYD - ROT MEL - ROT
SYD - PMR MEL - PMR BNE - PMR
SYD - HLZ MEL - HLZ BNE - HLZ
SYD - DUD MEL - DUD BNE - DUD
or would they even consider both and aggressively go after Air NZ. Tiger currently operate 4 737-800's in the Australian domestic market that could quite easily operate up to 56 flights per week Transtasman

QANTAS
Don't appear to concerned with NZ market. They seem to maintain normal service with little change over the year or are they waiting for the AA JV to be approved and then look at something

JETSTAR
Do they stay reasonably stagnant or do they look at opportunities in the smaller markets.

UNITED
Already going year round, just a matter of consolidating AKL-SFO while codesharing/revenue sharing on NZ's AKL-IAH, AKL-ORD, and AKL-LAX routes.

AMERICAN
If QF/AA JV is approved, do they look at AKL-LAX year round and coordinate schedule to feed QF AKL-MEL/BNE flights. Do they consider DFW-AKL-MEL as a supplement to QF's DFW-SYD service

DELTA
Giving VIRGIN is now alone would DL consider AKL and coordinate schedule to feed Virgins BNE/MEL/OOL flights. Only option would be LAX-AKL as they would probably to ATL-SYD before AKL

HAWAIIAN
Continue to slowly increase frequency with possible change to 359 depending on delivery and importance of market

AIR CANADA
Still reviewing the SouthPac. Potential next year to add seasonal service from YVR-AKL instead of NZ. Leave NZ at 7 flights per week and AC add 3 or 4 flights per week over peak period. This is downtime in Europe and would allow additional usage of an aircraft. Or would they branch out and attempt YYZ-AKL given how popular travel between NZ and Canada is.

CHINA SOUTHERN/CHINA EASTERN/AIR CHINA
Do they branch out into additional secondary Chinese cities as they have done in Australia or do they continue to focus on CAN/PVG/PEK respectively. Are they prepared to sit back and allow a smaller Chinese Carrier to take the opportunity into AKL.
Several secondary cities to consider Haikou (HAK), Hangzhou (HGH) MU, Kunming (KMG) MU

HAINAN, TAINJAN and SICHUAN
Continue to maintain schedules, or do they increase via secondary cities from there primary city

XIAMENAIR
Chance of FOC - AKL with 788. COuld be done with 2 - 3 flights per week.

BEIJING CAPITAL, SHANGHAI AIRLINES, SHENZHEN AIRLINES
With the carriers interest to grown Internationally, how far away are they

CHINA AIRLINES
How long before the drop BNE and go non-stop to TPE, or do they add AKL-TPE service while maintaining AKL-BNE-TPE service given this is a daily/year round flight

SCOOT
Supplement AKL-SIN or leave it two SQ/NZ to run 3 flights per day unchallenged.

VEITNAM AIRLINES
Given how NZ has tried to establish seasonal market but now pulled out. Would VN consider replacing in market with 787

GARUDA/ROYAL BRUNEI/ASIANA
Possible but all have tried before and departed for various reasons but with NZ's growing popularity with tourists, would they consider a second attempt

AIR INDIA
These rumours are always present, especially with NZ growing Indian population. Will the Indian community remain happy with flying via SIN/BKK etc to connect to India or will they start to demand a Non-stop service.

THAI
Consolidate and operate single aircraft type for more than 3 months

PHILLIPINES
Gradual increase in frequency over the next few years

MALAYSIAN
Pretty well established now. Very little change seen

AIRASIA X
Is KUL-OOL-AKL doing sufficient to consider KUL-AKL nonstop or do they branch out and look at BKK/MNL with there subsidiaries

KOREAN/CATHAY/SINGAPORE
All appear to be happy with the seasonal increments each year ad reducing back during the low period. No real threat from anyone given CX/SQ codeshare with NZ, while KE has no real threat on the horizon. OZ tried and left, whether they will again.

ANA
With NZ pulling out of HND due slot and 789 issues, would NH look at stepping in and running HND-AKL. NZ continues to develop KIX-AKL. Would they consider making an agreement with NH and look at consolidating service. Give NH KIX-AKL with its domestic feed into KIX and give NZ some decent slots in HND and have NH feed into NZ's HND service.

QATAR/EMIRATES/ETIHAD
Will depend on fuel situation. Emirates already reducing services to AKL (however, they appear to be doing this system wide at the moment). Is this due to runway maintenance in DXB or are they starting to struggle. If fuel does not increase too dramatically, possibly more AKL-DXB non-stop late next year or do they look at further Asian cities to add into AKL
Qatar seems happy and quiet with AKL. Maybe increase in frequency late next year, again subject to fuel.
Does ETIHAD consider looking at AKL given available frequency in UAE AUST-NZ bilateral and possibly replace VA in a certain market to offer upscale product.

AIR NEW ZEALAND.
They will continue to defend their turf stoutly. How long before they look at additional Australian cities or go year round in others. May be a quiet consolidation period for long haul while they continue to work through Rolls Royce issues and wait for the NxGen ULR aircraft for NYC and Sth American expansion. Possible increase in current Asian markets as engine issues get resolved.

There are many more choices and am interested to see what you all think and the possibilities that exist
 
a7ala
Posts: 323
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Fri Oct 26, 2018 12:20 am

nascarnut wrote:
With the 2018 close to winding up, why not look at the possibilities for 2019 and what may happen (pending fuel situation and AIAL being able to cope)

VIRGIN/TIGERAIR - is it a matter of when not if Virgin decide to throw Tiger into the market. Question is on what routes. Will they look at secondary ports in Australia to primary cities
AVV - AKL
NTL - AKL replacing Virgin depending on next months start-up success
CBR - AKL
HBA - AKL
or would they look at primary SYD cities to the smaller ports in NZ
SYD - ROT MEL - ROT
SYD - PMR MEL - PMR BNE - PMR
SYD - HLZ MEL - HLZ BNE - HLZ
SYD - DUD MEL - DUD BNE - DUD
or would they even consider both and aggressively go after Air NZ. Tiger currently operate 4 737-800's in the Australian domestic market that could quite easily operate up to 56 flights per week Transtasman

QANTAS
Don't appear to concerned with NZ market. They seem to maintain normal service with little change over the year or are they waiting for the AA JV to be approved and then look at something

JETSTAR
Do they stay reasonably stagnant or do they look at opportunities in the smaller markets.

UNITED
Already going year round, just a matter of consolidating AKL-SFO while codesharing/revenue sharing on NZ's AKL-IAH, AKL-ORD, and AKL-LAX routes.

AMERICAN
If QF/AA JV is approved, do they look at AKL-LAX year round and coordinate schedule to feed QF AKL-MEL/BNE flights. Do they consider DFW-AKL-MEL as a supplement to QF's DFW-SYD service

DELTA
Giving VIRGIN is now alone would DL consider AKL and coordinate schedule to feed Virgins BNE/MEL/OOL flights. Only option would be LAX-AKL as they would probably to ATL-SYD before AKL

HAWAIIAN
Continue to slowly increase frequency with possible change to 359 depending on delivery and importance of market

AIR CANADA
Still reviewing the SouthPac. Potential next year to add seasonal service from YVR-AKL instead of NZ. Leave NZ at 7 flights per week and AC add 3 or 4 flights per week over peak period. This is downtime in Europe and would allow additional usage of an aircraft. Or would they branch out and attempt YYZ-AKL given how popular travel between NZ and Canada is.

CHINA SOUTHERN/CHINA EASTERN/AIR CHINA
Do they branch out into additional secondary Chinese cities as they have done in Australia or do they continue to focus on CAN/PVG/PEK respectively. Are they prepared to sit back and allow a smaller Chinese Carrier to take the opportunity into AKL.
Several secondary cities to consider Haikou (HAK), Hangzhou (HGH) MU, Kunming (KMG) MU

HAINAN, TAINJAN and SICHUAN
Continue to maintain schedules, or do they increase via secondary cities from there primary city

XIAMENAIR
Chance of FOC - AKL with 788. COuld be done with 2 - 3 flights per week.

BEIJING CAPITAL, SHANGHAI AIRLINES, SHENZHEN AIRLINES
With the carriers interest to grown Internationally, how far away are they

CHINA AIRLINES
How long before the drop BNE and go non-stop to TPE, or do they add AKL-TPE service while maintaining AKL-BNE-TPE service given this is a daily/year round flight

SCOOT
Supplement AKL-SIN or leave it two SQ/NZ to run 3 flights per day unchallenged.

VEITNAM AIRLINES
Given how NZ has tried to establish seasonal market but now pulled out. Would VN consider replacing in market with 787

GARUDA/ROYAL BRUNEI/ASIANA
Possible but all have tried before and departed for various reasons but with NZ's growing popularity with tourists, would they consider a second attempt

AIR INDIA
These rumours are always present, especially with NZ growing Indian population. Will the Indian community remain happy with flying via SIN/BKK etc to connect to India or will they start to demand a Non-stop service.

THAI
Consolidate and operate single aircraft type for more than 3 months

PHILLIPINES
Gradual increase in frequency over the next few years

MALAYSIAN
Pretty well established now. Very little change seen

AIRASIA X
Is KUL-OOL-AKL doing sufficient to consider KUL-AKL nonstop or do they branch out and look at BKK/MNL with there subsidiaries

KOREAN/CATHAY/SINGAPORE
All appear to be happy with the seasonal increments each year ad reducing back during the low period. No real threat from anyone given CX/SQ codeshare with NZ, while KE has no real threat on the horizon. OZ tried and left, whether they will again.

ANA
With NZ pulling out of HND due slot and 789 issues, would NH look at stepping in and running HND-AKL. NZ continues to develop KIX-AKL. Would they consider making an agreement with NH and look at consolidating service. Give NH KIX-AKL with its domestic feed into KIX and give NZ some decent slots in HND and have NH feed into NZ's HND service.

QATAR/EMIRATES/ETIHAD
Will depend on fuel situation. Emirates already reducing services to AKL (however, they appear to be doing this system wide at the moment). Is this due to runway maintenance in DXB or are they starting to struggle. If fuel does not increase too dramatically, possibly more AKL-DXB non-stop late next year or do they look at further Asian cities to add into AKL
Qatar seems happy and quiet with AKL. Maybe increase in frequency late next year, again subject to fuel.
Does ETIHAD consider looking at AKL given available frequency in UAE AUST-NZ bilateral and possibly replace VA in a certain market to offer upscale product.

AIR NEW ZEALAND.
They will continue to defend their turf stoutly. How long before they look at additional Australian cities or go year round in others. May be a quiet consolidation period for long haul while they continue to work through Rolls Royce issues and wait for the NxGen ULR aircraft for NYC and Sth American expansion. Possible increase in current Asian markets as engine issues get resolved.

There are many more choices and am interested to see what you all think and the possibilities that exist


Wow! Fantastic to see so many opportunities for AKL and none for the rest of the country :roll:
Last edited by a7ala on Fri Oct 26, 2018 12:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
SCFlyer
Posts: 303
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:14 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Fri Oct 26, 2018 12:33 am

nascarnut wrote:
With the 2018 close to winding up, why not look at the possibilities for 2019 and what may happen (pending fuel situation and AIAL being able to cope)

VIRGIN/TIGERAIR - is it a matter of when not if Virgin decide to throw Tiger into the market. Question is on what routes. Will they look at secondary ports in Australia to primary cities
AVV - AKL
NTL - AKL replacing Virgin depending on next months start-up success
CBR - AKL
HBA - AKL


The secondary ports in AU aren't bases for TigerAir, thus a crew base would probably be needed to be opened up in AKL.
It could be suggested that TT takes over the AKL-TBU/RAR flights as well (assuming 5th freedom transfer/paperwork would be done and cleared by NZ and the Pacific Countries), freeing up some VA 737s for either AU domestic and/or Trans-Tasman.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1224
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Fri Oct 26, 2018 1:33 am

nascarnut wrote:
With the 2018 close to winding up, why not look at the possibilities for 2019 and what may happen (pending fuel situation and AIAL being able to cope)

VIRGIN/TIGERAIR - is it a matter of when not if Virgin decide to throw Tiger into the market. Question is on what routes. Will they look at secondary ports in Australia to primary cities
AVV - AKL
NTL - AKL replacing Virgin depending on next months start-up success
CBR - AKL
HBA - AKL
or would they look at primary SYD cities to the smaller ports in NZ
SYD - ROT MEL - ROT
SYD - PMR MEL - PMR BNE - PMR
SYD - HLZ MEL - HLZ BNE - HLZ
SYD - DUD MEL - DUD BNE - DUD
or would they even consider both and aggressively go after Air NZ. Tiger currently operate 4 737-800's in the Australian domestic market that could quite easily operate up to 56 flights per week Transtasman

QANTAS
Don't appear to concerned with NZ market. They seem to maintain normal service with little change over the year or are they waiting for the AA JV to be approved and then look at something

JETSTAR
Do they stay reasonably stagnant or do they look at opportunities in the smaller markets.

UNITED
Already going year round, just a matter of consolidating AKL-SFO while codesharing/revenue sharing on NZ's AKL-IAH, AKL-ORD, and AKL-LAX routes.

AMERICAN
If QF/AA JV is approved, do they look at AKL-LAX year round and coordinate schedule to feed QF AKL-MEL/BNE flights. Do they consider DFW-AKL-MEL as a supplement to QF's DFW-SYD service

DELTA
Giving VIRGIN is now alone would DL consider AKL and coordinate schedule to feed Virgins BNE/MEL/OOL flights. Only option would be LAX-AKL as they would probably to ATL-SYD before AKL

HAWAIIAN
Continue to slowly increase frequency with possible change to 359 depending on delivery and importance of market

AIR CANADA
Still reviewing the SouthPac. Potential next year to add seasonal service from YVR-AKL instead of NZ. Leave NZ at 7 flights per week and AC add 3 or 4 flights per week over peak period. This is downtime in Europe and would allow additional usage of an aircraft. Or would they branch out and attempt YYZ-AKL given how popular travel between NZ and Canada is.

CHINA SOUTHERN/CHINA EASTERN/AIR CHINA
Do they branch out into additional secondary Chinese cities as they have done in Australia or do they continue to focus on CAN/PVG/PEK respectively. Are they prepared to sit back and allow a smaller Chinese Carrier to take the opportunity into AKL.
Several secondary cities to consider Haikou (HAK), Hangzhou (HGH) MU, Kunming (KMG) MU

HAINAN, TAINJAN and SICHUAN
Continue to maintain schedules, or do they increase via secondary cities from there primary city

XIAMENAIR
Chance of FOC - AKL with 788. COuld be done with 2 - 3 flights per week.

BEIJING CAPITAL, SHANGHAI AIRLINES, SHENZHEN AIRLINES
With the carriers interest to grown Internationally, how far away are they

CHINA AIRLINES
How long before the drop BNE and go non-stop to TPE, or do they add AKL-TPE service while maintaining AKL-BNE-TPE service given this is a daily/year round flight

SCOOT
Supplement AKL-SIN or leave it two SQ/NZ to run 3 flights per day unchallenged.

VEITNAM AIRLINES
Given how NZ has tried to establish seasonal market but now pulled out. Would VN consider replacing in market with 787

GARUDA/ROYAL BRUNEI/ASIANA
Possible but all have tried before and departed for various reasons but with NZ's growing popularity with tourists, would they consider a second attempt

AIR INDIA
These rumours are always present, especially with NZ growing Indian population. Will the Indian community remain happy with flying via SIN/BKK etc to connect to India or will they start to demand a Non-stop service.

THAI
Consolidate and operate single aircraft type for more than 3 months

PHILLIPINES
Gradual increase in frequency over the next few years

MALAYSIAN
Pretty well established now. Very little change seen

AIRASIA X
Is KUL-OOL-AKL doing sufficient to consider KUL-AKL nonstop or do they branch out and look at BKK/MNL with there subsidiaries

KOREAN/CATHAY/SINGAPORE
All appear to be happy with the seasonal increments each year ad reducing back during the low period. No real threat from anyone given CX/SQ codeshare with NZ, while KE has no real threat on the horizon. OZ tried and left, whether they will again.

ANA
With NZ pulling out of HND due slot and 789 issues, would NH look at stepping in and running HND-AKL. NZ continues to develop KIX-AKL. Would they consider making an agreement with NH and look at consolidating service. Give NH KIX-AKL with its domestic feed into KIX and give NZ some decent slots in HND and have NH feed into NZ's HND service.

QATAR/EMIRATES/ETIHAD
Will depend on fuel situation. Emirates already reducing services to AKL (however, they appear to be doing this system wide at the moment). Is this due to runway maintenance in DXB or are they starting to struggle. If fuel does not increase too dramatically, possibly more AKL-DXB non-stop late next year or do they look at further Asian cities to add into AKL
Qatar seems happy and quiet with AKL. Maybe increase in frequency late next year, again subject to fuel.
Does ETIHAD consider looking at AKL given available frequency in UAE AUST-NZ bilateral and possibly replace VA in a certain market to offer upscale product.

AIR NEW ZEALAND.
They will continue to defend their turf stoutly. How long before they look at additional Australian cities or go year round in others. May be a quiet consolidation period for long haul while they continue to work through Rolls Royce issues and wait for the NxGen ULR aircraft for NYC and Sth American expansion. Possible increase in current Asian markets as engine issues get resolved.

There are many more choices and am interested to see what you all think and the possibilities that exist


Wow! Awesome summary.

Virgin/Tiger
- I don't think we'll see Tiger next year, Virgin need to secure the Tasman under them own steam and secure enough market share before they introduce their low-cost operator.
- I don't think we'll see Tiger in the Pacific, well not until Tiger is established on over AKL. VA will want to supplement Pacific flying with some Australian connections so will hand that to VA
- New Tasman markets will be interesting. There isn't much left outside HBA and CBR, we'll like see more routes vs new destinations.

Qantas / AA
- I'd love to see Qantas commence North America flying ex AKL in addition to AA.
- See AA move to AKL-DFW and QF to pick up AKL-LAX and both to codehare

Delta
- I'd still like to see DL do ATL-AKL as ATL-SYD is a touch too long
- It could help strength VA in AKL also but also allow an AKL connection to East Coast USA

Air Canada
- Perhaps YYZ-AKL, alliance time with NZ with NZ doing YVR-AKL

Vietnam Airlines
- I hope NZ has opened the door for them.

Air India
- I don't expect anything anytime soon.

Air Asia
Direct could be interesting. They pick up a lot of traffic Tasman only. Will be interesting to see if they value that of believe they can take enough PAX direct to Asia.

Key for 2019 in my mind
- Tasman will see 3 major carriers going at it. QF group, NZ and VA
- China continues to grow
- The Middle East will flatten out
- South America will continue to status quo for LATAM and be nurtured and NZ
- USA will continue to grow hopefully by QF/AA, UA will be status quo and nothing much from NZ.
- The rest of Asia will be largely status quo
We also can't forget..
- NZ's widebody announcement
- QF fleet updates.

If I had a wish list it would be
- NZ orders A350 with options to replace 77W
- DL open ATL-AKL
- AC commences YYZ-AKL
- BA opens AKL over North America codeshare with QF/AA
- QF commences AKL-LAX codeshare with AA, BA
- NZ announces second China port (if they had a full operational fleet)
- VA picks up a solid share of the market on the Tasman and continues to establish themselves as a strong full-service carrier.
- Second Hawaii port opened
- New South East Asian leisure route opened (Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia)
 
xiaotung
Posts: 1014
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2006 7:58 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Fri Oct 26, 2018 3:47 am

On China, in a recent interview of NZ North Asia GM Scott Carr, he said they had no plan to operate from a second Chinese city. Their focus is on building double daily PVG service and working with CA to increase frequency from PEK. They have set a target of doubling daily PVG by 2022 which would then connect well with South America.

I wouldn't expect significant changes from the Chinese big 3. However, Shanghai based and Star Connecting Partner Juneyao Air (HO) just this month took delivery of their first 787-9 and they have announced intention to fly to Australia/New Zealand in 2019. Although their priority will be Australia but I do believe they are considering New Zealand otherwise they could have just said Australia. I am not sure if the NZ/CA alliance would prevent NZ from working with another Chinese airline but HO could provide that second daily PVG service right now. HO would have no problem getting slots as they could just shuffle their existing routes.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3297
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Fri Oct 26, 2018 4:08 am

On the Scoot front - some how don't see them in the New Zealand market anytime soon (as long as the NZ/SQ friendship is alive).

If anything the WLG service could of been Scoot, but got an full SQ service instead.
 
User avatar
VirginFlyer
Posts: 5262
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2000 12:27 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:22 am

a7ala wrote:
nascarnut wrote:
With the 2018 close to winding up, why not look at the possibilities for 2019 and what may happen (pending fuel situation and AIAL being able to cope)

VIRGIN/TIGERAIR - is it a matter of when not if Virgin decide to throw Tiger into the market. Question is on what routes. Will they look at secondary ports in Australia to primary cities
AVV - AKL
NTL - AKL replacing Virgin depending on next months start-up success
CBR - AKL
HBA - AKL
or would they look at primary SYD cities to the smaller ports in NZ
SYD - ROT MEL - ROT
SYD - PMR MEL - PMR BNE - PMR
SYD - HLZ MEL - HLZ BNE - HLZ
SYD - DUD MEL - DUD BNE - DUD
or would they even consider both and aggressively go after Air NZ. Tiger currently operate 4 737-800's in the Australian domestic market that could quite easily operate up to 56 flights per week Transtasman

QANTAS
Don't appear to concerned with NZ market. They seem to maintain normal service with little change over the year or are they waiting for the AA JV to be approved and then look at something

JETSTAR
Do they stay reasonably stagnant or do they look at opportunities in the smaller markets.

UNITED
Already going year round, just a matter of consolidating AKL-SFO while codesharing/revenue sharing on NZ's AKL-IAH, AKL-ORD, and AKL-LAX routes.

AMERICAN
If QF/AA JV is approved, do they look at AKL-LAX year round and coordinate schedule to feed QF AKL-MEL/BNE flights. Do they consider DFW-AKL-MEL as a supplement to QF's DFW-SYD service

DELTA
Giving VIRGIN is now alone would DL consider AKL and coordinate schedule to feed Virgins BNE/MEL/OOL flights. Only option would be LAX-AKL as they would probably to ATL-SYD before AKL

HAWAIIAN
Continue to slowly increase frequency with possible change to 359 depending on delivery and importance of market

AIR CANADA
Still reviewing the SouthPac. Potential next year to add seasonal service from YVR-AKL instead of NZ. Leave NZ at 7 flights per week and AC add 3 or 4 flights per week over peak period. This is downtime in Europe and would allow additional usage of an aircraft. Or would they branch out and attempt YYZ-AKL given how popular travel between NZ and Canada is.

CHINA SOUTHERN/CHINA EASTERN/AIR CHINA
Do they branch out into additional secondary Chinese cities as they have done in Australia or do they continue to focus on CAN/PVG/PEK respectively. Are they prepared to sit back and allow a smaller Chinese Carrier to take the opportunity into AKL.
Several secondary cities to consider Haikou (HAK), Hangzhou (HGH) MU, Kunming (KMG) MU

HAINAN, TAINJAN and SICHUAN
Continue to maintain schedules, or do they increase via secondary cities from there primary city

XIAMENAIR
Chance of FOC - AKL with 788. COuld be done with 2 - 3 flights per week.

BEIJING CAPITAL, SHANGHAI AIRLINES, SHENZHEN AIRLINES
With the carriers interest to grown Internationally, how far away are they

CHINA AIRLINES
How long before the drop BNE and go non-stop to TPE, or do they add AKL-TPE service while maintaining AKL-BNE-TPE service given this is a daily/year round flight

SCOOT
Supplement AKL-SIN or leave it two SQ/NZ to run 3 flights per day unchallenged.

VEITNAM AIRLINES
Given how NZ has tried to establish seasonal market but now pulled out. Would VN consider replacing in market with 787

GARUDA/ROYAL BRUNEI/ASIANA
Possible but all have tried before and departed for various reasons but with NZ's growing popularity with tourists, would they consider a second attempt

AIR INDIA
These rumours are always present, especially with NZ growing Indian population. Will the Indian community remain happy with flying via SIN/BKK etc to connect to India or will they start to demand a Non-stop service.

THAI
Consolidate and operate single aircraft type for more than 3 months

PHILLIPINES
Gradual increase in frequency over the next few years

MALAYSIAN
Pretty well established now. Very little change seen

AIRASIA X
Is KUL-OOL-AKL doing sufficient to consider KUL-AKL nonstop or do they branch out and look at BKK/MNL with there subsidiaries

KOREAN/CATHAY/SINGAPORE
All appear to be happy with the seasonal increments each year ad reducing back during the low period. No real threat from anyone given CX/SQ codeshare with NZ, while KE has no real threat on the horizon. OZ tried and left, whether they will again.

ANA
With NZ pulling out of HND due slot and 789 issues, would NH look at stepping in and running HND-AKL. NZ continues to develop KIX-AKL. Would they consider making an agreement with NH and look at consolidating service. Give NH KIX-AKL with its domestic feed into KIX and give NZ some decent slots in HND and have NH feed into NZ's HND service.

QATAR/EMIRATES/ETIHAD
Will depend on fuel situation. Emirates already reducing services to AKL (however, they appear to be doing this system wide at the moment). Is this due to runway maintenance in DXB or are they starting to struggle. If fuel does not increase too dramatically, possibly more AKL-DXB non-stop late next year or do they look at further Asian cities to add into AKL
Qatar seems happy and quiet with AKL. Maybe increase in frequency late next year, again subject to fuel.
Does ETIHAD consider looking at AKL given available frequency in UAE AUST-NZ bilateral and possibly replace VA in a certain market to offer upscale product.

AIR NEW ZEALAND.
They will continue to defend their turf stoutly. How long before they look at additional Australian cities or go year round in others. May be a quiet consolidation period for long haul while they continue to work through Rolls Royce issues and wait for the NxGen ULR aircraft for NYC and Sth American expansion. Possible increase in current Asian markets as engine issues get resolved.

There are many more choices and am interested to see what you all think and the possibilities that exist


Wow! Fantastic to see so many opportunities for AKL and none for the rest of the country :roll:

Perhaps the intercontinental flights to Timaru will be the following year...

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
ZKOAB
Posts: 47
Joined: Tue Jul 12, 2016 9:59 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:21 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Why is it you get so defensive Planemanofnz?

You call it defensive. I call it objective.

Cheers,

C.


Why do you object to everything then? Just because you don’t like it or disagree? You are entitled to your opinion but at times you are entitled to listen to others aswell.


Zing.
It's got to the point where I just scroll past all PMNZ posts as it is the only reason my enjoyment of this forum is deteriorating.
I value the other contributions which is why I am still here but it's getting tedious where one poster dominates this forum to the point where it looks like they are almost talking to themselves.
 
a7ala
Posts: 323
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:27 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Fri Oct 26, 2018 10:55 am

zkncj wrote:
On the Scoot front - some how don't see them in the New Zealand market anytime soon (as long as the NZ/SQ friendship is alive).

If anything the WLG service could of been Scoot, but got an full SQ service instead.


Why would you put densely configured scoot into a relatively small but business heavy market? SQ is much better aligned to wlg. Surely Scoot would be better in chc?
 
User avatar
eta unknown
Posts: 2440
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2001 5:03 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:34 am

[/quote]
Zing.
It's got to the point where I just scroll past all PMNZ posts as it is the only reason my enjoyment of this forum is deteriorating.
I value the other contributions which is why I am still here but it's getting tedious where one poster dominates this forum to the point where it looks like they are almost talking to themselves.[/quote]
+1
I got to the same point and then I discovered the foe button and the posts are hidden. I now enjoy myself here :-)
 
User avatar
QuayWeeAir
Posts: 26
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2017 12:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:57 am

nascarnut wrote:
With the 2018 close to winding up, why not look at the possibilities for 2019 and what may happen (pending fuel situation and AIAL being able to cope)

VIRGIN/TIGERAIR - is it a matter of when not if Virgin decide to throw Tiger into the market. Question is on what routes. Will they look at secondary ports in Australia to primary cities
AVV - AKL
NTL - AKL replacing Virgin depending on next months start-up success
CBR - AKL
HBA - AKL
or would they look at primary SYD cities to the smaller ports in NZ
SYD - ROT MEL - ROT
SYD - PMR MEL - PMR BNE - PMR
SYD - HLZ MEL - HLZ BNE - HLZ
SYD - DUD MEL - DUD BNE - DUD
or would they even consider both and aggressively go after Air NZ. Tiger currently operate 4 737-800's in the Australian domestic market that could quite easily operate up to 56 flights per week Transtasman

QANTAS
Don't appear to concerned with NZ market. They seem to maintain normal service with little change over the year or are they waiting for the AA JV to be approved and then look at something

JETSTAR
Do they stay reasonably stagnant or do they look at opportunities in the smaller markets.

UNITED
Already going year round, just a matter of consolidating AKL-SFO while codesharing/revenue sharing on NZ's AKL-IAH, AKL-ORD, and AKL-LAX routes.

AMERICAN
If QF/AA JV is approved, do they look at AKL-LAX year round and coordinate schedule to feed QF AKL-MEL/BNE flights. Do they consider DFW-AKL-MEL as a supplement to QF's DFW-SYD service

DELTA
Giving VIRGIN is now alone would DL consider AKL and coordinate schedule to feed Virgins BNE/MEL/OOL flights. Only option would be LAX-AKL as they would probably to ATL-SYD before AKL

HAWAIIAN
Continue to slowly increase frequency with possible change to 359 depending on delivery and importance of market

AIR CANADA
Still reviewing the SouthPac. Potential next year to add seasonal service from YVR-AKL instead of NZ. Leave NZ at 7 flights per week and AC add 3 or 4 flights per week over peak period. This is downtime in Europe and would allow additional usage of an aircraft. Or would they branch out and attempt YYZ-AKL given how popular travel between NZ and Canada is.

CHINA SOUTHERN/CHINA EASTERN/AIR CHINA
Do they branch out into additional secondary Chinese cities as they have done in Australia or do they continue to focus on CAN/PVG/PEK respectively. Are they prepared to sit back and allow a smaller Chinese Carrier to take the opportunity into AKL.
Several secondary cities to consider Haikou (HAK), Hangzhou (HGH) MU, Kunming (KMG) MU

HAINAN, TAINJAN and SICHUAN
Continue to maintain schedules, or do they increase via secondary cities from there primary city

XIAMENAIR
Chance of FOC - AKL with 788. COuld be done with 2 - 3 flights per week.

BEIJING CAPITAL, SHANGHAI AIRLINES, SHENZHEN AIRLINES
With the carriers interest to grown Internationally, how far away are they

CHINA AIRLINES
How long before the drop BNE and go non-stop to TPE, or do they add AKL-TPE service while maintaining AKL-BNE-TPE service given this is a daily/year round flight

SCOOT
Supplement AKL-SIN or leave it two SQ/NZ to run 3 flights per day unchallenged.

VEITNAM AIRLINES
Given how NZ has tried to establish seasonal market but now pulled out. Would VN consider replacing in market with 787

GARUDA/ROYAL BRUNEI/ASIANA
Possible but all have tried before and departed for various reasons but with NZ's growing popularity with tourists, would they consider a second attempt

AIR INDIA
These rumours are always present, especially with NZ growing Indian population. Will the Indian community remain happy with flying via SIN/BKK etc to connect to India or will they start to demand a Non-stop service.

THAI
Consolidate and operate single aircraft type for more than 3 months

PHILLIPINES
Gradual increase in frequency over the next few years

MALAYSIAN
Pretty well established now. Very little change seen

AIRASIA X
Is KUL-OOL-AKL doing sufficient to consider KUL-AKL nonstop or do they branch out and look at BKK/MNL with there subsidiaries

KOREAN/CATHAY/SINGAPORE
All appear to be happy with the seasonal increments each year ad reducing back during the low period. No real threat from anyone given CX/SQ codeshare with NZ, while KE has no real threat on the horizon. OZ tried and left, whether they will again.

ANA
With NZ pulling out of HND due slot and 789 issues, would NH look at stepping in and running HND-AKL. NZ continues to develop KIX-AKL. Would they consider making an agreement with NH and look at consolidating service. Give NH KIX-AKL with its domestic feed into KIX and give NZ some decent slots in HND and have NH feed into NZ's HND service.

QATAR/EMIRATES/ETIHAD
Will depend on fuel situation. Emirates already reducing services to AKL (however, they appear to be doing this system wide at the moment). Is this due to runway maintenance in DXB or are they starting to struggle. If fuel does not increase too dramatically, possibly more AKL-DXB non-stop late next year or do they look at further Asian cities to add into AKL
Qatar seems happy and quiet with AKL. Maybe increase in frequency late next year, again subject to fuel.
Does ETIHAD consider looking at AKL given available frequency in UAE AUST-NZ bilateral and possibly replace VA in a certain market to offer upscale product.

AIR NEW ZEALAND.
They will continue to defend their turf stoutly. How long before they look at additional Australian cities or go year round in others. May be a quiet consolidation period for long haul while they continue to work through Rolls Royce issues and wait for the NxGen ULR aircraft for NYC and Sth American expansion. Possible increase in current Asian markets as engine issues get resolved.

There are many more choices and am interested to see what you all think and the possibilities that exist



Would love to see some more flights to and from the Pacific started...

AKL - PPG (HA/NZ/OL)
AKL - OGG (HA/NZ)
AKL - BOB (NZ/TN)
AKL - GUM (UA/NZ/KE/JL)
WLG/CHC - APW (NZ/OL)
WLG/CHC - TBU (NZ/VA)
 
777ER
Head Moderator
Posts: 10061
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2003 5:04 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Fri Oct 26, 2018 2:25 pm

For WLG International

SQ: Expand in 2019 with additional frequencies (upto 6x weekly) and introducing either the 787 or A350. Got a feeling the A350 will be used.
OL: launching APW with a 2pw service
VA: Introducing their own branded lounge will mean dedicated VA services to WLG (MEL via SQ service or VA's SYD service). Only time TT would enter WLG will be for AKL/CHC/ZQN/DUD domestic services.
FJ: New Max -8s will be a welcome change and hopefully go to 3x weekly.
QF: Don't see them expanding much. Maybe add a BNE service now that NZ/VA are splitting
JQ: With only a OOL service left they seem to be doing well, but can't see any additional international flying

WLG Domestic:

Can't see JQ expanding much on domestic especially with the QF code now going on every non competing NZ/JQ flight. Would be nice to see further JQ expansion but won't happen and NZ services will grow with further A320s and further Q300/ATR services.


Air Chathams will be interesting to watch at PPQ
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ZaphodHarkonnen
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Fri Oct 26, 2018 2:32 pm

777ER wrote:
For WLG main trunk/international:

Wouldn't be surprised to see SQ expand in 2019 with additional frequencies (upto 6x weekly) and introducing either the 787 or A350. Got a feeling the A350 will be used.
OL launching APW if they survive.
VA introducing their own branded lounge will mean dedicated VA services to WLG (MEL via SQ service or VA's SYD service). Only time TT would enter WLG will be for AKL/CHC/ZQN/DUD domestic services.

Can't see JQ expanding much especially with the QF code now going on every non competing NZ/JQ flight. Would be nice to see further JQ expansion but won't happen and NZ services will grow with further A320s and further Q300/ATR services.


I'm still super interested to find out what Aribus discovered in their A350 testing in WLG. Best case of course would be SIN-WLG non stop and I can always hope. :p

But yeah, I'd agree the B772 replacement is an A359.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Fri Oct 26, 2018 5:02 pm

777ER wrote:
. Only time TT would enter WLG will be for AKL/CHC/ZQN/DUD domestic services.


Does make me wonder how many domestic terminals would have the ability to host TT if they were to start domestic flights? Would think that WLG probably would be one of the few that would have gate space? With maybe CHC?

AKL/ZQN are already full, TT would have to be an bus operation in AKL. JQ regional buses already depart from an detached shed, surely similar would have to happen for TT.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Sat Oct 27, 2018 1:00 am

777ER wrote:
For WLG International ...

To add, I've always wondered why NF and SB didn't give WLG and/or CHC a go, even seasonally.

Two other points:

- IMO, a Chinese carrier is a matter of when, not if (unlikely 2019).
- It'll be interesting to see whether QF or VA pick up WLG - CBR.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Sat Oct 27, 2018 1:05 am

xiaotung wrote:
I wouldn't expect significant changes from the Chinese big 3. However, Shanghai based and Star Connecting Partner Juneyao Air (HO) just this month took delivery of their first 787-9 and they have announced intention to fly to Australia/New Zealand in 2019. Although their priority will be Australia but I do believe they are considering New Zealand otherwise they could have just said Australia. I am not sure if the NZ/CA alliance would prevent NZ from working with another Chinese airline but HO could provide that second daily PVG service right now. HO would have no problem getting slots as they could just shuffle their existing routes.

You're right - under changes to the 'one route, one airline' policy this month, HO or CA could step in and provide a second daily Star Alliance PVG - AKL flight. IMO, that seems more realistic than NZ being given its ideal timings for slots for its own service.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Sat Oct 27, 2018 1:07 am

QuayWeeAir wrote:
Would love to see some more flights to and from the Pacific started...

AKL - PPG (HA/NZ/OL)
AKL - OGG (HA/NZ)
AKL - BOB (NZ/TN)
AKL - GUM (UA/NZ/KE/JL)
WLG/CHC - APW (NZ/OL)
WLG/CHC - TBU (NZ/VA)

Also:

AKL - POM (NZ/PX)
AKL - HIR (NZ)
AKL - AIT (NZ/VA/JQ)

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Sat Oct 27, 2018 1:15 am

nascarnut wrote:
QANTAS - Don't appear to concerned with NZ market. They seem to maintain normal service with little change over the year or are they waiting for the AA JV to be approved and then look at something.

It'll be interesting to see if they re-launch AKL - PER at some point, which seems to have been stopped only for fleet issues?

nascarnut wrote:
UNITED - Already going year round, just a matter of consolidating AKL-SFO while codesharing/revenue sharing on NZ's AKL-IAH, AKL-ORD, and AKL-LAX routes.

There was a rumour here about UA maybe considering DEN - AKL with 788's (as NZ's 789's wouldn't be as good for DEN).

nascarnut wrote:
DELTA - Giving VIRGIN is now alone would DL consider AKL and coordinate schedule to feed Virgins BNE/MEL/OOL flights. Only option would be LAX-AKL as they would probably to ATL-SYD before AKL

Actually, the other option is JFK - AKL - they've got 77L's and 359's which could do it. Would it be worth the effort though?

nascarnut wrote:
HAINAN, TAINJAN and SICHUAN - Continue to maintain schedules, or do they increase via secondary cities from there primary city

Under changes to Chinese aviation policy, HU could now fly PVG - AKL. I also see them considering PVG or SZX - CHC.

nascarnut wrote:
OZ tried and left, whether they will again.

I firmly believe a return to AKL is on their horizon. The market is booming, and they've said publicly they want LH growth.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Sat Oct 27, 2018 1:23 am

NZ6 wrote:
Vietnam Airlines - I hope NZ has opened the door for them

What happened to the rumour of VN doing SGN - PHE - AKL? I never thought it'd eventuate, and it seems not to have.

NZ6 wrote:
Air Asia - Direct could be interesting.

IIRC, I don't think the D7-configured 333 can do KUL - AKL non-stop? Even MH's lower density 333 struggled to AKL.

NZ6 wrote:
NZ announces second China port (if they had a full operational fleet)

NZ have said no to this, but I do wonder if they'd consider flying to Beijing's Daxing Airport, which will open in 2019.

- It is forecast that Daxing will be the world's biggest airport in the future - will be great for AKL to be linked there
- CA only flies 4x weekly to AKL, so a 3x weekly NZ Daxing service would enable daily flights to 'Greater Beijing'

However, Daxing wouldn't give NZ connections, as CA's hub is at PEK. Maybe O&D will be big enough to off-set that?

I think we should also consider the possibility of HU, CZ or MU launching Daxing - AKL, subject to traffic rights.

Cheers,

C.
 
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LamboAston
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Sat Oct 27, 2018 1:32 am

NZ6 wrote:
Gasman wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
1) 1-3 aircraft with IFE (enough to cycle WLG) - Admittingly, this isn't an overnight thing and could take some time to firstly, tender to systems but then also install them.


Is IFE even that much of a thing anymore? I can imagine it still is for families travelling with kids; but personally I'm happy to forego the screen smeared with fecal matter or Y class food (it's the same thing anyway) for the sake of watching Jurmanji 2 or Mrs. Doubtfire. These days I pre-download movies onto my phone, watch none of them, listen to spotify instead and if I turn on the IFE it's only to stare inanely at the route map.



Show me a credible international airline who doesn't have one?

Some are moving to entertainment supplied via an App. I've used this before, I can't recall the airline, but feel it was an Asian low cost one. Holding my cell phone for hours is a pain, to rest it on the tray table made it too small and far away and should an airline create some type of universal seat holder, I'd imagine this would be the same. The population with with tablets and iPads is much smaller than those with smartphones so a risk to rely on bigger devices.

My point being, while it's a low cost and very tidy proposition/alternative, I don't see it being a replacement for IFE on a 'full service' airline.

I get where you are coming from but, if your competitors are offering a premium lounge, reward points, kiosk check-in, high frequency, meals and bar service by not offering 'entertainment' per say it leaves a gaping hole in the overall product.


Gasman wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Alternatives is..
Slowly improve perception but still lack the IFE issue over QF and NZ. (Most likely course of action) and continue to sit awkwardly between LCC and Full Service.

Indeed the most likely course of "action".


I hope I'm wrong, as much of a fan of NZ as I am, I have some forward thinking concerns with NZ if they don't have a solid and full-service competitor who wants the Tasman market.

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zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Sat Oct 27, 2018 1:37 am

planemanofnz wrote:
777ER wrote:
For WLG International ...

To add, I've always wondered why NF and SB didn't give WLG and/or CHC a go, even seasonally.


Would how much of SB AKL-NOU is off-set by cargo? e.g. fresh food supplies for high end hotels and resorts would be creating a reasonable amount of freight demand ex-AKL? ex-WLG the freight capacity would be most likely restricted due to shorter runway and extra 40-60minutes flying time to NOU.

AKL - AIT (NZ/VA/JQ)


Maybe NZ or VA rather than JQ? didn't think there was too much budget friend accommodation around AIT? unless JQ started an Atoll Camping Ground?

Would AIT need some major upgraded before it could take non-stop A320 services from AKL? and could the local environment handle the additional amount of people?
 
xiaotung
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Sat Oct 27, 2018 1:46 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ have said no to this, but I do wonder if they'd consider flying to Beijing's Daxing Airport, which will open in 2019.

- It is forecast that Daxing will be the world's biggest airport in the future - will be great for AKL to be linked there
- CA only flies 4x weekly to AKL, so a 3x weekly NZ Daxing service would enable daily flights to 'Greater Beijing'

However, Daxing wouldn't give NZ connections, as CA's hub is at PEK. Maybe O&D will be big enough to off-set that?

I think we should also consider the possibility of HU, CZ or MU launching Daxing - AKL, subject to traffic rights.

Cheers,

C.


CA and Star Alliance carriers have all been assigned to stay at PEK. It's a lot closer to the city and I don't know why you want to go to Daxing if you have the rights to operate out of PEK. CA being unable to increase frequency may have something to do with their own B787 engine issues.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Sat Oct 27, 2018 1:50 am

Going past NZ's ANZES base today there was 3x 789s with windows taped over - assuming these ones are planned to be stored for a while? with another 2x 789 in the hangar.

Is it likely to improve before the Christmas/New Years peak? or is it going to become one messy hoilday period?
 
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LamboAston
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Sat Oct 27, 2018 1:52 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Over the last 5 or so years, NZ has invested somewhere over $150m in lounges.

Eh, it's about quality - not quantity, and arguably even on quantity, they could/should have done a lot more (WLG - anyone?). They've been caught out, and they admit this. The AKL debacle was their mistake (either alone, or in part - you be the judge).

NZ6 wrote:
While, yes they moved to 10 abreast in Economy that's line with most 777 operators.

NZ is not "most operators" - the average flight length of its 777 services is much longer than that of most other carriers. I'm not saying that that means they shouldn't have gone 10-abreast, but it does partly erode/distinguish your frequent comparisons.

Cheers,

C.

Another point to throw in, I've often been struggling to get seats in the Dunedin Koru lounge in the evening, which isn't even particularly busy. I would say in Dunedin around 50% of passengers on any given flight are Koru members, if not more.
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planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:05 am

nascarnut wrote:
EMIRATES - Will depend on fuel situation. Emirates already reducing services to AKL (however, they appear to be doing this system wide at the moment). Is this due to runway maintenance in DXB or are they starting to struggle. If fuel does not increase too dramatically, possibly more AKL-DXB non-stop late next year or do they look at further Asian cities to add into AKL

What about EK's CHC service - will that last in its current form, as a year-round 388 tag from SYD? I'm not sure how sustainable a 388 to CHC is - I mean, the cargo is probably good out of the South Island with exports, but when I look at BITRE passenger loadings, it's never flash. They don't seem to be able to make this a non-stop 77L service, as IIRC, the EK 77L's will no longer be doing ULH flights. A 777 flight stopping in Australia is likely not possible either, as most if not all EK Australian flights are 388 (ADL being the key exception). I doubt they'd stop in SIN (given SQ competition) too. A stop in HKG would be a significant detour. Perhaps 3x weekly via BKK? Other options?

Cheers,

C.
 
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LamboAston
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:16 am

Another note, first A321 flight is now BNE on November 26th from the info I've got. I'm on it hopefully to SYD on the 28th
AS350, B733/4/7/8, B744/8, B762/3, B77E/L/W, B789, A319, A320, A321, A332, A346, A380, AT73/5/6, Q300, Q400, CR2/7, E190, S340, B1900C/D, E110 (E for epic)
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planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:16 am

xiaotung wrote:
CA and Star Alliance carriers have all been assigned to stay at PEK.

Yes, I read about that MOU from December 2017, however I note that HO (in Star Alliance) is moving to Daxing, so it can't be an all-encompassing outright ban.

xiaotung wrote:
It's a lot closer to the city and I don't know why you want to go to Daxing if you have the rights to operate out of PEK.

It'll be more convenient to use Daxing from parts of Beijing, plus the Beijing–Xiong'an intercity railway will be excellent (getting to Daxing in as little as 11 minutes).

Also - Daxing is closer to TSN, which is arguably a tier-one city in its own right, and far less competitive (although query how many TSN people would use Daxing).

xiaotung wrote:
CA being unable to increase frequency may have something to do with their own B787 engine issues.

Perhaps, and I hope so. But I do note that while inbound tourism from pretty much all areas of China is booming with double digit growth, growth from BJS is ~1%.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:22 am

zkncj wrote:
Would AIT need some major upgraded before it could take non-stop A320 services from AKL? and could the local environment handle the additional amount of people?

Yes re the airport - it can only take up to 733's (due to runway width), IIRC - but there are plans to expand it. Re the environment - about 1 in 5 visitors to the Cooks visits AIT, so given the amount of international flights to RAR, I assume AIT could handle a low-frequency international service.

zkncj wrote:
Would how much of SB AKL-NOU is off-set by cargo?

I presume CHC/WLG - NOU would be more holiday traffic (beaches, resorts - that kind of thing), in competition with FJ's CHC/WLG - NAN services, rather than cargo in focus. It could be seasonal to start with, to reduce risk, and would benefit from reduced competition compared to at AKL?

Cheers,

C.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:37 am

planemanofnz wrote:
[
zkncj wrote:
Would how much of SB AKL-NOU is off-set by cargo?

I presume CHC/WLG - NOU would be more holiday traffic (beaches, resorts - that kind of thing), in competition with FJ's CHC/WLG - NAN services, rather than cargo in focus. It could be seasonal to start with, to reduce risk, and would benefit from reduced competition compared to at AKL?
.


Although the cargo market helps off-set the passenger cost of operating the flight, if there is limited or no cargo up-lift say in WLG then naturally the fares are going to be higher than say ex-AKL?
 
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SXI899
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Sat Oct 27, 2018 4:01 am

ZK-MVW is filed to depart TLS on its delivery flight as SXI1815 at 0540UTC.
We deliver......
 
Gasman
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2018

Sat Oct 27, 2018 4:23 am

LamboAston wrote:
Another note, first A321 flight is now BNE on November 26th from the info I've got. I'm on it hopefully to SYD on the 28th

I just don't get why there's even the remotest bit of excitement about this aircraft.

From an enthusiast's point of view, it's just another A320 - albeit one that's slightly longer with more efficient engines. From a passenger's point of view it's a ridiculously cramped single aisle aircraft with 29" pitch and only THREE lavatories for over 200 passengers. That's simply inhumane.

Massive thumbs-down for me. But I'm sure the shareholders will love it.

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