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planemanofnz
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SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU on 789/359 - can it be done?

Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:34 pm

Hi all,

I've heard varying things about the viability of SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU on a 789 or 359 - although the distances aren't outrageous, some say that such a flight would be limited because of factors like i) GRU airport geography (altitude, heat etc.) and ii) restrictions on how far south flights are allowed to go, close to/over Antarctica.

So - can anyone confirm whether a 789 or 359 could make SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU (if any, at all)?

Cheers,

C.
 
dcajet
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Re: SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU on 789/359 - can it be done?

Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:43 pm

NZ has said its 789s are not able to do an AKL-GRU nonstop with a profitable payload. I'd rule out SYD & MEL.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
a350lover
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Re: SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU on 789/359 - can it be done?

Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:46 pm

I am not sure about the tech specifications around this route, but surely the possibilities of Australia-South America links can go further than just SCL and EZE. Logical third route should head to Brazil. Colombia, with a large community of expats in Australia could also follow?
 
PA515
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Re: SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU on 789/359 - can it be done?

Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:59 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
I've heard varying things about the viability of SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU on a 789 or 359 - although the distances aren't outrageous, some say that such a flight would be limited because of factors like i) GRU airport geography (altitude, heat etc.) and ii) restrictions on how far south flights are allowed to go, close to/over Antarctica.

So - can anyone confirm whether a 789 or 359 could make SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU (if any, at all)?


You have asked this question before (about AKL-GRU) on the 'New Zealand Aviation Thread' and been given the reason why it is not presently flown by Air NZ with the 789. You will also be aware Air NZ have said they intend to operate either the A350-900 or 777-8 on this route from about 2022.

PA515
Last edited by PA515 on Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU on 789/359 - can it be done?

Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:05 pm

Project Sunrise could actually permit SYD-GRU, although that's not what its aim is (it's SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR nonstop) if there can be at least ETOPS 370.
 
dcajet
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Re: SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU on 789/359 - can it be done?

Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:36 pm

a350lover wrote:
I am not sure about the tech specifications around this route, but surely the possibilities of Australia-South America links can go further than just SCL and EZE. Logical third route should head to Brazil. Colombia, with a large community of expats in Australia could also follow?


We'll need to wait for the next generation of ULH aircraft before we see flights going anywhere else in South America beyond EZE & SCL with regularity. Surely an extremely premium heavy A359 or 787-9 could do SYD-GRU today, but these are not premium-heavy routes. That's why NZ is waiting for the next generation of aircraft.

As to Colombia, that would be quite the long flight from, say, SYD. 18-19 hrs - almost 9,000 miles. And no way it can be a non stop on the way back to SYD due to BOG's high altitude.

GRU is the next no-brainer from AKL/SYD; perhaps LIM in the future as a hub for traffic distribution to other Colombian cities, Panama and Ecuador?
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
jfk777
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Re: SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU on 789/359 - can it be done?

Sun Sep 30, 2018 11:41 pm

Lima as the most western airport in South America would be interesting. Since LATAM has a hub there either Qantas or LATAM could fly LIM to SYD. The next ten years in South America should bring some new routes we could only dream of 30 years ago.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU on 789/359 - can it be done?

Mon Oct 01, 2018 2:31 am

PA515 wrote:
You have asked this question before (about AKL-GRU) on the 'New Zealand Aviation Thread' and been given the reason why it is not presently flown by Air NZ with the 789.

I'm not interested in NZ specifically - I'm interested in the 789 and 359 generally. IIRC, NZ's code 1 789 configuration is denser than the usual 789 configuration, so is not a benchmark to use. There are many other potential operators, like LA (using 789's or 359's) or CZ (using 789's) - would their configurations permit an AKL - GRU routing? What about SYD or MEL - GRU? How would GRU's altitude and heat affect performance? How would route requirements close to and/or over Antarctica affect viability? It's not clear - that's what this thread is about.

Cheers,

C.
 
aryonoco
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Re: SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU on 789/359 - can it be done?

Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:11 am

jfk777 wrote:
Lima as the most western airport in South America would be interesting. Since LATAM has a hub there either Qantas or LATAM could fly LIM to SYD. The next ten years in South America should bring some new routes we could only dream of 30 years ago.


And what would be the advantage of this over SCL? QF and LA fly to SCL from MEL and SYD.
 
dcajet
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Re: SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU on 789/359 - can it be done?

Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:21 am

planemanofnz wrote:
How would GRU's altitude and heat affect performance?.


At 750 mts over sea level I am not sure GRU can be classified as a high altitude airport.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
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SFODXBFRALHRBLR
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Re: SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU on 789/359 - can it be done?

Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:32 am

dcajet wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
How would GRU's altitude and heat affect performance?.


At 750 mts over sea level I am not sure GRU can be classified as a high altitude airport.

The ICAO recommends an increase in runway length of about 7% for every 300m higher an airport is. A more than 17% increase in runway length, considering GRU is at 750m, is quite significant. Aviation is very sensitive to altitude.
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planemanofnz
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Re: SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU on 789/359 - can it be done?

Mon Oct 01, 2018 5:48 am

dcajet wrote:
Surely an extremely premium heavy A359 or 787-9 could do SYD-GRU today, but these are not premium-heavy routes. That's why NZ is waiting for the next generation of aircraft.

Does it need to be premium-heavy to make it currently? For example, could a CZ 789 (the version with Premium Economy) or SQ 359 do AKL - GRU - AKL with no penalty? Its only about the same distance as AKL - IAH - AKL, which in ULH terms, is not that long.

Cheers,

C.
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU on 789/359 - can it be done?

Mon Oct 01, 2018 9:59 am

planemanofnz wrote:
dcajet wrote:
Surely an extremely premium heavy A359 or 787-9 could do SYD-GRU today, but these are not premium-heavy routes. That's why NZ is waiting for the next generation of aircraft.

Does it need to be premium-heavy to make it currently? For example, could a CZ 789 (the version with Premium Economy) or SQ 359 do AKL - GRU - AKL with no penalty? Its only about the same distance as AKL - IAH - AKL, which in ULH terms, is not that long.

Cheers,

C.

Any South America route that heads South needs to carry additional fuel for diversion etc that is greater than what you would normally have on say AKL-IAH due to the remoteness of the route. This in turn reduces payload.
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dcajet
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Re: SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU on 789/359 - can it be done?

Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:11 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
dcajet wrote:
Surely an extremely premium heavy A359 or 787-9 could do SYD-GRU today, but these are not premium-heavy routes. That's why NZ is waiting for the next generation of aircraft.

Does it need to be premium-heavy to make it currently? For example, could a CZ 789 (the version with Premium Economy) or SQ 359 do AKL - GRU - AKL with no penalty? Its only about the same distance as AKL - IAH - AKL, which in ULH terms, is not that long.

Cheers,

C.


The nature of Southern Seas flying adds restrictions and contingency plans that are not found on routes such as the ones you mention. Hence why payload is critical on those sectors. Once you get past USH there is nothing until CHC suitable for a 787 or an A350 to land.

SFODXBFRALHRBLR wrote:
dcajet wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
How would GRU's altitude and heat affect performance?.


At 750 mts over sea level I am not sure GRU can be classified as a high altitude airport.


The ICAO recommends an increase in runway length of about 7% for every 300m higher an airport is. A more than 17% increase in runway length, considering GRU is at 750m, is quite significant. Aviation is very sensitive to altitude.


While I understand your point, GRU supports non stop service to DXB, ADD, DOH, IST, TLV and some of the longest 767 nonstop routes, such as FCO and LHR.

I suspect the nature of the South Pole route will cast a longer shadow on a potential GRU-AKL than GRU's altitude.
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aerorobnz
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Re: SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU on 789/359 - can it be done?

Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:48 pm

Not with RR powered 787s. They are stunted EDTO wise right now No insurance company would insure an airline.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
dcajet
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Re: SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU on 789/359 - can it be done?

Mon Oct 01, 2018 4:43 pm

aerorobnz wrote:
Not with RR powered 787s. They are stunted EDTO wise right now No insurance company would insure an airline.


LATAM continues to operate them to AKL & MEL from SCL.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
SonomaFlyer
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Re: SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU on 789/359 - can it be done?

Mon Oct 01, 2018 4:59 pm

dcajet wrote:
aerorobnz wrote:
Not with RR powered 787s. They are stunted EDTO wise right now No insurance company would insure an airline.


LATAM continues to operate them to AKL & MEL from SCL.


True but this route is a lot shorter than a GRU route so the fuel/cargo mix is different and likely a lot more profitable than a GRU routing which requires lots of added fuel for the distance and ETOPS.
 
dcajet
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Re: SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU on 789/359 - can it be done?

Mon Oct 01, 2018 5:17 pm

SonomaFlyer wrote:
dcajet wrote:
aerorobnz wrote:
Not with RR powered 787s. They are stunted EDTO wise right now No insurance company would insure an airline.


LATAM continues to operate them to AKL & MEL from SCL.


True but this route is a lot shorter than a GRU route so the fuel/cargo mix is different and likely a lot more profitable than a GRU routing which requires lots of added fuel for the distance and ETOPS.


Perhaps, but from a purely risk assessment from an army of actuaries at any insurance company, the risk is still there, whether from SCL, EZE or GRU - the pond has ot be crossed anyway. Even worse from SCL, as the flight goes "feet wet" not too long after take off. From GRU there are quite a big land mass to fly over until the flight goes "feet wet"!
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU on 789/359 - can it be done?

Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:53 pm

SonomaFlyer wrote:
ETOPS.

To what extent is ETOPS an issue for SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU?

Cheers,

C.
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU on 789/359 - can it be done?

Tue Oct 02, 2018 4:28 am

planemanofnz wrote:
SonomaFlyer wrote:
ETOPS.

To what extent is ETOPS an issue for SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU?

Cheers,

C.


It requires EDTO 330 for operational flexibility and no payload restrictions, The RRs are reduced to maximum EDTO 240 in addition to the increased engine maintenance and engine changes. EDTO 240 is a standard plan between NZ and SCL, but even EZE struggles with standard weather/wind conditions under 240, and this greatly increases the flight time. Add an extra 3h ontop of that to GRU and that's stretching the rubberband that bit far.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU on 789/359 - can it be done?

Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:47 am

Zkpilot wrote:
Any South America route that heads South needs to carry additional fuel for diversion ...

How much extra fuel, and how much of an impact does this have on say, SYD - EZE or SYD - GRU?

Cheers,

C.
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: SYD/MEL/AKL - GRU on 789/359 - can it be done?

Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:12 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
Any South America route that heads South needs to carry additional fuel for diversion ...

How much extra fuel, and how much of an impact does this have on say, SYD - EZE or SYD - GRU?

Cheers,

C.

Worst case would be decompression engine out at ETP with a diversion possibly up to 6 hours away. Flying low and slow with extra drag could potentially mean needing to load several tons of extra gas (remember you need to carry extra gas to fly the gas in the first place too).
Compare that with say AKL-ORD where there are multiple diversion points within 3 hours in most cases.
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