iahcsr
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:19 am

flyguy84 wrote:
EChid wrote:
iahcsr wrote:
Anyone know what the penalty costs will be if that’s the ultimate decision? :scratchchin: :dollarsign: :dollarsign: :dollarsign: :eyepopping: :faint:


Well, as was mentioned, they'd have to deal with the massive cancellation costs of the contract with Rolls-Royce and, as someone else mentioned, usually the cost of cancelling a purchase contract increases when it's renegotiated (which it has been once already with Airbus) so - high, since the cancellation would be for two separate agreements. I'm not sure anybody but those party to the actual contracts would know the dollar value, but I could be wrong..

I am fairly certain that Rolls Royce will let them out of the A350 with commitments to use their engine type on another order....

If that’s the case then as mentioned in reply #86, UA had better tell Boeing they’ll buy several dozen 797s.... but only if they come with RR.. :bigthumbsup:
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intotheair
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:28 am

*Sigh* four more years of this A350 talk...

I think if UA had the option to cancel without penalty, they probably would have. But they can't, and the current deal on the books to substantially replace the 77Es is probably the best compromise.

All the people who brokered the most recent Airbus deal at UA are still there. If there's another executive shakeup that pushes Munoz and Kirby out in the next two years or so, then there might be reason to believe that a new management team might review the deal again.
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kitplane01
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:56 am

SFOtoORD wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
codc10 wrote:

UA makes orders for airplanes it can finance, to operate where it has the demand. This is in contrast to massive, costly orders which end up as albatrosses when the economy turns south and the company doesn't have enough profitable flying to deploy them and generate a ROI.

Gigantic 747/777 orders in the 90s (and the accompanying boatload of debt) were just one of a number of factors which directly led to the company's bankruptcy in 2002, wiping out tens of thousands of retirements, career prospects and billions in shareholder value. Only now is the company finally recovering.

Fortunately, this is a much more responsibly-run airline today.


All of the arguments for small, bite sized orders make sense. But I was under the impression that larger orders got a larger discount. I wonder how much more UA had to pay to order in smaller increments.


Given multiple previous 787 orders perhaps they already have good pricing.


I don't see why this would be.

If UA has options with built in pricing, then they get that price. But no one has said that yet.

Otherwise, UA seems to really need the 787s. There was no chance they were going to accept just A350s for just these nine planes. Given their lack of choice, Boeing does not have to discount as much.

Of course Boeing wants UA's long term favor, but I still bet (without real knowledge) that they would have gotten a better price with fewer, larger orders.
 
iahcsr
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Fri Oct 05, 2018 5:15 am

kitplane01 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:

All of the arguments for small, bite sized orders make sense. But I was under the impression that larger orders got a larger discount. I wonder how much more UA had to pay to order in smaller increments.


Given multiple previous 787 orders perhaps they already have good pricing.


I don't see why this would be.

If UA has options with built in pricing, then they get that price. But no one has said that yet.

Otherwise, UA seems to really need the 787s. There was no chance they were going to accept just A350s for just these nine planes. Given their lack of choice, Boeing does not have to discount as much.

Of course Boeing wants UA's long term favor, but I still bet (without real knowledge) that they would have gotten a better price with fewer, larger orders.

For all we know deals for more aircraft could already have been made.. just waiting until the time is right
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SEPilot
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Fri Oct 05, 2018 8:34 am

The situation looks pretty clear to me. UA originally ordered the A359 as 744 replacements. At the time they ordered them the A3510 did not have the range they wanted, and when Airbus increased its range UA changed to that. Then UA decided to replace the 744 fleet before the A3510s could be delivered, so they bought some 77Ws. They switched the A3510s to A359s and pushed delivery out to use them as 77E replacements, as the 77E fleet is not ready to be replaced, and the A359 is the perfect 77E replacement, as the 789 doesn’t have the capacity and the 7810 doesn’t have the range. I have no doubt that the A359s will eventually show up.
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tpaewr
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Fri Oct 05, 2018 8:55 am

It doesn’t mean an order is in the works by any means but interesting that the new wide body hanger in IAH is built to accommodate both the 77W & the 777-9
 
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:44 am

Should UA take everything they’ve ordered (including the A350) and the 737MAX’s AND the handful of A319/20 and 767’s: will their fleet size after what they retire still be less than AA or DL?
Is United shooting for largest fleet on top of all their other goals?
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mig17
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:49 am

I see a 2 type limited widebody fleet for United in about 10 years. Only 788, 789, 781 and A359. Maybe some A351. Only question mark is an hypothetical 797.

There are 127 Boeing 767 and 777 (not W) to replace in the next 10 years. For now, 45 A350 and 27 787 on order. 72 total. More of both will come.
I also think the brand new 77W will not stay to long after the lasr 77E leaves. They will still have value on second hand market and no communality left at UA.

No, I think the loosers in this new 9 787 order is the A330neo and A320neo witch were envisioned by some to be a possible 767/757 replacement at some point.
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:46 pm

I see zero reason for them not to take the A350-900.

I believe the proposed 797 will likely find a home in their fleet and make up a chunk of the need in the latter half of the decade.

I also believe we are overdue for an economic shock of some sort so this may all play out differently depending on what fate brings us next.
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gwrudolph
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Fri Oct 05, 2018 7:25 pm

SEPilot wrote:
The situation looks pretty clear to me. UA originally ordered the A359 as 744 replacements. At the time they ordered them the A3510 did not have the range they wanted, and when Airbus increased its range UA changed to that. Then UA decided to replace the 744 fleet before the A3510s could be delivered, so they bought some 77Ws. They switched the A3510s to A359s and pushed delivery out to use them as 77E replacements, as the 77E fleet is not ready to be replaced, and the A359 is the perfect 77E replacement, as the 789 doesn’t have the capacity and the 7810 doesn’t have the range. I have no doubt that the A359s will eventually show up.


Totally agree! That's just about what I wrote earlier.
 
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:57 pm

gwrudolph wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
The situation looks pretty clear to me. UA originally ordered the A359 as 744 replacements. At the time they ordered them the A3510 did not have the range they wanted, and when Airbus increased its range UA changed to that. Then UA decided to replace the 744 fleet before the A3510s could be delivered, so they bought some 77Ws. They switched the A3510s to A359s and pushed delivery out to use them as 77E replacements, as the 77E fleet is not ready to be replaced, and the A359 is the perfect 77E replacement, as the 789 doesn’t have the capacity and the 7810 doesn’t have the range. I have no doubt that the A359s will eventually show up.


Totally agree! That's just about what I wrote earlier.


Nailed the summary, SEPilot, that's my understanding of it too.
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 2:01 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
I see zero reason for them not to take the A350-900.


I can think of a few big ones:

1) Lower acquisition cost
2) Lower operating cost
3) Less capacity for better yields
4) Fleet commonality

The A359 is less and less likely to be UA's fleet the longer this plays out. This order chips away at those chances again.
 
EChid
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 2:40 am

MSPNWA wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
I see zero reason for them not to take the A350-900.


I can think of a few big ones:

1) Lower acquisition cost
2) Lower operating cost
3) Less capacity for better yields
4) Fleet commonality

The A359 is less and less likely to be UA's fleet the longer this plays out. This order chips away at those chances again.


I'm confused by some of the reasoning here.

1) Lower acquisition cost - maybe, or maybe not if you consider the costs of cancelling the order
3) Less capacity for better yields - sometimes that's what it means - sometimes it just means lost chances of flying customers and UA has a significant share of the TPAC market

But what I really don't understand is "The A359 is less and less likely to be UA's fleet the longer this plays out." - UA has updated their order and restated the delivery date, I'm not sure how that's "playing things out". Is "playing it out" just waiting for the delivery dates to arrive? Additionally, it's been pretty clearly stated by others in this thread that this order of 789s is fundamentally to replace retiring 767s, not 77Es - which is what the A359s are meant to replace.
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 2:53 am

I see no reason why the 787-9 can't replace the 772's at UA. And I'd be willing to bet that Boeing would take care of any A350 penalties for a 787 and MOM order from UA. There have been no new Airbus deliveries since the merger and United really loves their 737 and 787. Meanwhile AA is about a 50/50 fleet mix of A and B and Delta is solidly in the arms of Airbus. Delta will not be ordering any more Boeing aircraft. I could see this as an opportunity for Boeing to keep one of the world's largest airlines on their team. United would have a very efficient widebody fleet that can cover any mission with the MOM, 787, and 77W. Poor Delta will have to give up a good chunk of their international roites when the 767 gets too old. The A330 is simply too much capacity to replace many current 767 routes.
 
Max Q
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:28 am

The 359 will replace the 77E and
the 779 will replace the 77W


It makes perfect sense
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hOMSaR
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:33 am

Max Q wrote:
The 359 will replace the 77E and
the 779 will replace the 77W


It makes perfect sense


Not really.

The 77Ws were *just* delivered. In fact, I think the last one hasn't even been delivered yet. If UA is going to get the same lifespan out of those as they got out of the 77Es, you're talking 20+ years before those planes are ready to be retired. How is anyone, in any way, supposed to realistically know what widebody planes will be in production in the year 2038?
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EChid
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 4:52 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
I see no reason why the 787-9 can't replace the 772's at UA. And I'd be willing to bet that Boeing would take care of any A350 penalties for a 787 and MOM order from UA. There have been no new Airbus deliveries since the merger and United really loves their 737 and 787. Meanwhile AA is about a 50/50 fleet mix of A and B and Delta is solidly in the arms of Airbus. Delta will not be ordering any more Boeing aircraft. I could see this as an opportunity for Boeing to keep one of the world's largest airlines on their team. United would have a very efficient widebody fleet that can cover any mission with the MOM, 787, and 77W. Poor Delta will have to give up a good chunk of their international roites when the 767 gets too old. The A330 is simply too much capacity to replace many current 767 routes.


Of course Boeing wants to keep Airbus out of UA, but that won't affect UA's decision. Maybe they'll pay some cancellation fees, but that could amount to quite a lot unless the MOM does come into existence and somehow there is an RR engine option and somehow RR agrees to renegotiate. That's a lot of unknowns at this point.

Meanwhile, your suggestion is that UA have the 789 and 777W for their long-range missions. That's a jump from 252 pax to 366. Really? Nothing in between? Recall that the 78J is not suitable for long-range TPAC missions, and has been earmarked primarily for TATL routes to my knowledge. The current 772, in Polaris seat configuration, is 292 pax. The average A359 is ~300. That gives them granularity in their fleet, something they clearly use given the number of 772s flying around. Given that the 78J is not suitable as a replacement them in situations where range is required, the A359 is the only thing that can fill that gap. So, unless UA decides its good to start missing out on all those ASMs, they'll bring in the A359. Don't forget, UA currently has +70 772s in their fleet, so 45 A359s doesn't nearly replace all of them. Certainly UA may decide that a mix of the 789/J can fill in for the rest when their time comes.
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 7:19 am

EChid wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
I see no reason why the 787-9 can't replace the 772's at UA. And I'd be willing to bet that Boeing would take care of any A350 penalties for a 787 and MOM order from UA. There have been no new Airbus deliveries since the merger and United really loves their 737 and 787. Meanwhile AA is about a 50/50 fleet mix of A and B and Delta is solidly in the arms of Airbus. Delta will not be ordering any more Boeing aircraft. I could see this as an opportunity for Boeing to keep one of the world's largest airlines on their team. United would have a very efficient widebody fleet that can cover any mission with the MOM, 787, and 77W. Poor Delta will have to give up a good chunk of their international roites when the 767 gets too old. The A330 is simply too much capacity to replace many current 767 routes.


Of course Boeing wants to keep Airbus out of UA, but that won't affect UA's decision. Maybe they'll pay some cancellation fees, but that could amount to quite a lot unless the MOM does come into existence and somehow there is an RR engine option and somehow RR agrees to renegotiate. That's a lot of unknowns at this point.

Meanwhile, your suggestion is that UA have the 789 and 777W for their long-range missions. That's a jump from 252 pax to 366. Really? Nothing in between? Recall that the 78J is not suitable for long-range TPAC missions, and has been earmarked primarily for TATL routes to my knowledge. The current 772, in Polaris seat configuration, is 292 pax. The average A359 is ~300. That gives them granularity in their fleet, something they clearly use given the number of 772s flying around. Given that the 78J is not suitable as a replacement them in situations where range is required, the A359 is the only thing that can fill that gap. So, unless UA decides its good to start missing out on all those ASMs, they'll bring in the A359. Don't forget, UA currently has +70 772s in their fleet, so 45 A359s doesn't nearly replace all of them. Certainly UA may decide that a mix of the 789/J can fill in for the rest when their time comes.


Well, a 789/77W combo seems to be exactly what AA is doing. AA cancelled their A350 order.
 
Max Q
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:00 am

hOMSaR wrote:
Max Q wrote:
The 359 will replace the 77E and
the 779 will replace the 77W


It makes perfect sense


Not really.

The 77Ws were *just* delivered. In fact, I think the last one hasn't even been delivered yet. If UA is going to get the same lifespan out of those as they got out of the 77Es, you're talking 20+ years before those planes are ready to be retired. How is anyone, in any way, supposed to realistically know what widebody planes will be in production in the year 2038?



I’d put good money on an updated version
Of the 778/9 being in production 20
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VC10er
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:08 am

If Boeing was willing to pay the penalty in return for a combo of Boeing aircraft, would they really make back that hit to their bottom line?
I could see a future combination of 789, 78J, 797 and maybe even a small fleet 77X- distant future for ULH Pacific flying or west coast to a few European destinations...and the opening of some new international routes. With 737 and E175/95 covering domestic...all Boeing fleet would seem to make UA happy.
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TTailedTiger
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:31 am

VC10er wrote:
If Boeing was willing to pay the penalty in return for a combo of Boeing aircraft, would they really make back that hit to their bottom line?
I could see a future combination of 789, 78J, 797 and maybe even a small fleet 77X- distant future for ULH Pacific flying or west coast to a few European destinations...and the opening of some new international routes. With 737 and E175/95 covering domestic...all Boeing fleet would seem to make UA happy.


I'm sure they will more than make it up in support contracts and parts. Boeing gave UA a very good deal on end of the line 737NG'S. They seem to aim to please with UA.
 
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 9:03 am

Not that I have anything against Airbus, I love all their aircraft except 2 models. But it would be sort of cool to see one major airline with Boeing from small to VLA. Too bad the largest VLA won’t be a 748! Saw an LH 748 at ORD and she is absolutely the most beautiful of all. IMHO.
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EChid
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:22 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Well, a 789/77W combo seems to be exactly what AA is doing. AA cancelled their A350 order.


American is a different airline with different needs. They don't have nearly as many 772s, and don't have nearly the foothold in the TPAC market that UA does. UA clearly uses and values that aircraft size and range, and Boeing currently doesn't offer that combination.

Think about other airlines that do a lot of TPAC, like SQ or CA. They readily operate 787s, A350s, and 777s, with key roles for each type to play in their route network.
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:06 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
I see no reason why the 787-9 can't replace the 772's at UA. And I'd be willing to bet that Boeing would take care of any A350 penalties for a 787 and MOM order from UA. There have been no new Airbus deliveries since the merger and United really loves their 737 and 787. Meanwhile AA is about a 50/50 fleet mix of A and B and Delta is solidly in the arms of Airbus. Delta will not be ordering any more Boeing aircraft. I could see this as an opportunity for Boeing to keep one of the world's largest airlines on their team. United would have a very efficient widebody fleet that can cover any mission with the MOM, 787, and 77W. Poor Delta will have to give up a good chunk of their international roites when the 767 gets too old. The A330 is simply too much capacity to replace many current 767 routes.

Since we're all firing our predictions out there:
  • UA will take 35 or more A359s
  • UA will be a 797 launch customer
  • DL will be a 797 launch customer
All three of these make the most sense from a business point of view, as opposed to a fanboy point of view.
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Airlinepilot129
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:28 pm

Bald1983 wrote:
United is continuing the policy of Continental, namely fund the future. Since Bethune ran Continental, the Go Forward Plan was used and UAL adopted it after the merger. One prong of that plan is to fund the future. Continental seemed to have an ongoing program of fleet modernization and had the youngest of the mainline carriers. The old United made no orders, until the simultaneous orders for 787's and A-350's. I believe it is a good thing that UAL is continuing to upgrade the fleet.


While the fleet modernization program of Continental can be seen in a form of resemblance to what the combined company is doing now, I'd be really hard pressed to call it a continuation of Gordon Bethune's time at Continental. Let's not forget he was brought onto the board of directors for a brief short weeks before being run off. Let's also not forget that the entirety of Jeff Smisek's tenure at United still exists, too. Additionally, the Go Forward Plan terminated in 2005 after 10 years. The airline had transitioned to a focus on maintaining it's current status against an impending economic downturn by 2006/2007. I think it's also worth mentioning that airlines can still make larger orders for aircraft, it's just all about how they're financed.

As some others have said, people still dwelling on the pre-merger identities of the airline known today as United need to find a hobby, there are next to no similitiares to Continental despite a nearly identical corporate brand. What's going on at Willis today is new, and should be treated as such.
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gwrudolph
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 2:24 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
I see no reason why the 787-9 can't replace the 772's at UA. And I'd be willing to bet that Boeing would take care of any A350 penalties for a 787 and MOM order from UA. There have been no new Airbus deliveries since the merger and United really loves their 737 and 787. Meanwhile AA is about a 50/50 fleet mix of A and B and Delta is solidly in the arms of Airbus. Delta will not be ordering any more Boeing aircraft. I could see this as an opportunity for Boeing to keep one of the world's largest airlines on their team. United would have a very efficient widebody fleet that can cover any mission with the MOM, 787, and 77W. Poor Delta will have to give up a good chunk of their international roites when the 767 gets too old. The A330 is simply too much capacity to replace many current 767 routes.


Because United has many thick, longer routes which are ideal for a 777E or 359-900. The 787-9 has the range to cover the 777E missions, but is smaller. The 787-10 has the ideal size to replace the 777E, but cannot cover the distance for many United missions. The 350-9 is almost a one-for-one replacement of the 777E. It has the range and the size for those longer thicker routes.

As others have stated, I don't think this is about trying to get to an all A or all B fleet. It's about finding the right fleet mix to efficiently and effectively run the airline. I don't think 1 vs. 2 manufacturers matters as much as optimizing the fleet for your present and future route structure . . .
 
727200
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:03 pm

Except that co loves Boeing. They were an all Boeing fleet before UA, and didn't like the 320 until it was forced upon them. The only reason they are buying them now is because they are cheap and they can "use and abuse" them then dump them.

We will see, but my vote is the 350 never makes it on property.
 
tjh8402
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:03 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
EChid wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
I see no reason why the 787-9 can't replace the 772's at UA. And I'd be willing to bet that Boeing would take care of any A350 penalties for a 787 and MOM order from UA. There have been no new Airbus deliveries since the merger and United really loves their 737 and 787. Meanwhile AA is about a 50/50 fleet mix of A and B and Delta is solidly in the arms of Airbus. Delta will not be ordering any more Boeing aircraft. I could see this as an opportunity for Boeing to keep one of the world's largest airlines on their team. United would have a very efficient widebody fleet that can cover any mission with the MOM, 787, and 77W. Poor Delta will have to give up a good chunk of their international roites when the 767 gets too old. The A330 is simply too much capacity to replace many current 767 routes.


Of course Boeing wants to keep Airbus out of UA, but that won't affect UA's decision. Maybe they'll pay some cancellation fees, but that could amount to quite a lot unless the MOM does come into existence and somehow there is an RR engine option and somehow RR agrees to renegotiate. That's a lot of unknowns at this point.

Meanwhile, your suggestion is that UA have the 789 and 777W for their long-range missions. That's a jump from 252 pax to 366. Really? Nothing in between? Recall that the 78J is not suitable for long-range TPAC missions, and has been earmarked primarily for TATL routes to my knowledge. The current 772, in Polaris seat configuration, is 292 pax. The average A359 is ~300. That gives them granularity in their fleet, something they clearly use given the number of 772s flying around. Given that the 78J is not suitable as a replacement them in situations where range is required, the A359 is the only thing that can fill that gap. So, unless UA decides its good to start missing out on all those ASMs, they'll bring in the A359. Don't forget, UA currently has +70 772s in their fleet, so 45 A359s doesn't nearly replace all of them. Certainly UA may decide that a mix of the 789/J can fill in for the rest when their time comes.


Well, a 789/77W combo seems to be exactly what AA is doing. AA cancelled their A350 order.


AA’s 77Ws are much more low density than UAs, having only 304 seats (with the W refit) vs 366 in UAs. I think this reflects their different roles, with AA treating the 77W as a premium upgraded 77E, whereas they are a 747 replacement for UA. AAs 789s, OTOH, are more dense than UAs, with 285 seats, vs the 252 in UAs. so the gap between the two isn’t nearly as big, being only about 40 seats, vs the 110 seat spread between the 789 and 77W at UA.
Last edited by tjh8402 on Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
MSPNWA
Posts: 3307
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 2:48 am

Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:06 pm

EChid wrote:
I'm confused by some of the reasoning here.

1) Lower acquisition cost - maybe, or maybe not if you consider the costs of cancelling the order
3) Less capacity for better yields - sometimes that's what it means - sometimes it just means lost chances of flying customers and UA has a significant share of the TPAC market

But what I really don't understand is "The A359 is less and less likely to be UA's fleet the longer this plays out." - UA has updated their order and restated the delivery date, I'm not sure how that's "playing things out". Is "playing it out" just waiting for the delivery dates to arrive? Additionally, it's been pretty clearly stated by others in this thread that this order of 789s is fundamentally to replace retiring 767s, not 77Es - which is what the A359s are meant to replace.


"Maybes" are still reasons why they would not take the A350. It's no secret that at today's prices the 787 has a very attractive acquisition price. Airlines are not afraid to give up likely good early pricing if a better solution exists to them later (AA/A350, DL/787). Pushing back an order is never a positive sign for taking delivery, particularly when there has been a regime change.

Commonly I read the simplistic mistake of thinking that the capacity airlines fly now is exactly what they want now and in the future, leading so many to thinking that airlines need a 1 for 1 replacement in capacity. It's simply not what we see in the real world. It's very common for airlines to downgauge with newer technology that allows smaller aircraft to fly the same mission. UA is doing it right now. I suspect UA will think the same again. Do people even realize that UA's current 789s have only 17 fewer seats than the IPTE 772s? It's not a large capacity gap. I chuckle then when the same people speculate that 789s are replacing 763s, when the capacity gap between them is larger. They certainly can and do, but suddenly that 1 for 1 constraint is out the window.

EChid wrote:
American is a different airline with different needs. They don't have nearly as many 772s, and don't have nearly the foothold in the TPAC market that UA does. UA clearly uses and values that aircraft size and range, and Boeing currently doesn't offer that combination.

Think about other airlines that do a lot of TPAC, like SQ or CA. They readily operate 787s, A350s, and 777s, with key roles for each type to play in their route network.


UA has only 8 more -200ERs than AA. True about TPAC, although UA largely doesn't operate the 772 to Pacific cities where the 772's range is needed. The majority of UA's current 772 missions can be covered by an aircraft with less range.
 
mdavies06
Posts: 524
Joined: Fri Aug 07, 2009 10:28 pm

Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:25 pm

I don't think it is necessary for UA to have A350 replacing 77E. 789 and 781 can be replacement aircrafts for 77E too. UA does not need to keep capacity at the same level. A step down in capacity can help to boost yield and reduce trip cost, whilst giving some flexibility in terms of managing frequency. Some emerging markets like India and China may need the smallest aircraft there is in order to compete. On the other side of the coin, IMO only LHR and HND will stay consistently slot constrained in the coming decades for UA amongst the international ports, but for trunk routes such as those two UA still has the option to upgauge their existing flights to 77W if need be.
 
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Revelation
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:41 pm

727200 wrote:
Except that co loves Boeing.

Except CO doesn't exist any more.

It's strange to read UA will make big business decisions because they love Boeing and DL will make big business decisions because they hate Boeing.

IMHO both will do what is best for the bottom line.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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Airlinepilot129
Posts: 46
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 4:34 pm

mdavies06 wrote:
I don't think it is necessary for UA to have A350 replacing 77E. 789 and 781 can be replacement aircrafts for 77E too. UA does not need to keep capacity at the same level. A step down in capacity can help to boost yield and reduce trip cost, whilst giving some flexibility in terms of managing frequency. Some emerging markets like India and China may need the smallest aircraft there is in order to compete. On the other side of the coin, IMO only LHR and HND will stay consistently slot constrained in the coming decades for UA amongst the international ports, but for trunk routes such as those two UA still has the option to upgauge their existing flights to 77W if need be.


I don't believe the 77E has a replacement at United right now, it's just implied that a large order of A350s will replace them. I don't even think it's truly confirmed that the A350 will replace the 777-200A. A lot of it is speculation that's been taken for truth. However, I do believe the A350 could serve as a good aircraft for international expansion from hubs that could support more routes, that couldn't before with previous airplanes.
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iahcsr
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 4:41 pm

Revelation wrote:
727200 wrote:
Except that co loves Boeing.

Except CO doesn't exist any more.

It's strange to read UA will make big business decisions because they love Boeing and DL will make big business decisions because they hate Boeing.

IMHO both will do what is best for the bottom line.

Isn’t amazing how common sense doesn’t seem all that common anymore?
Working Hard, Flying Right Friendly....
 
Varsity1
Posts: 1918
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 4:45 pm

Any idea what UA paid for these 787's?
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gwrudolph
Posts: 397
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 4:55 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
EChid wrote:
I'm confused by some of the reasoning here.

1) Lower acquisition cost - maybe, or maybe not if you consider the costs of cancelling the order
3) Less capacity for better yields - sometimes that's what it means - sometimes it just means lost chances of flying customers and UA has a significant share of the TPAC market

But what I really don't understand is "The A359 is less and less likely to be UA's fleet the longer this plays out." - UA has updated their order and restated the delivery date, I'm not sure how that's "playing things out". Is "playing it out" just waiting for the delivery dates to arrive? Additionally, it's been pretty clearly stated by others in this thread that this order of 789s is fundamentally to replace retiring 767s, not 77Es - which is what the A359s are meant to replace.


"Maybes" are still reasons why they would not take the A350. It's no secret that at today's prices the 787 has a very attractive acquisition price. Airlines are not afraid to give up likely good early pricing if a better solution exists to them later (AA/A350, DL/787). Pushing back an order is never a positive sign for taking delivery, particularly when there has been a regime change.

Commonly I read the simplistic mistake of thinking that the capacity airlines fly now is exactly what they want now and in the future, leading so many to thinking that airlines need a 1 for 1 replacement in capacity. It's simply not what we see in the real world. It's very common for airlines to downgauge with newer technology that allows smaller aircraft to fly the same mission. UA is doing it right now. I suspect UA will think the same again. Do people even realize that UA's current 789s have only 17 fewer seats than the IPTE 772s? It's not a large capacity gap. I chuckle then when the same people speculate that 789s are replacing 763s, when the capacity gap between them is larger. They certainly can and do, but suddenly that 1 for 1 constraint is out the window.

EChid wrote:
American is a different airline with different needs. They don't have nearly as many 772s, and don't have nearly the foothold in the TPAC market that UA does. UA clearly uses and values that aircraft size and range, and Boeing currently doesn't offer that combination.

Think about other airlines that do a lot of TPAC, like SQ or CA. They readily operate 787s, A350s, and 777s, with key roles for each type to play in their route network.


UA has only 8 more -200ERs than AA. True about TPAC, although UA largely doesn't operate the 772 to Pacific cities where the 772's range is needed. The majority of UA's current 772 missions can be covered by an aircraft with less range.


I think you are comparing apples and oranges on the 777ER and 787-9. You are comparing a 3 cabin layout (which United is converting as fast as they can) to a 2 cabin layout and 9 abreast to 10 abreast. When the 777ERs are densified to the same extent that the 787-9s came out of the factory, they will have 15-20% more seats than the 787-9s. Moreover, when the 787-9s are fitted with the new Polaris seats, they'll likely lose a few seats in overall capacity.


They use the 777ERs on plenty of Pacific routes where the 777ER's range (and in some cases probably capacity) is necessary. ORDHKG, ORDNRT, ORDPVG, ORDPEK, IADNRT, EWRPVG, EWRPEK, EWRBOM, EWRDEL, and IAHNRT. I'm probably missing some that require both the range and capacity of the 777ER that are not currently running with the 77W. I'll also guess there's a few that they operate with the 787-9, could stand to use a 777ER-sized aircraft, the 77W is too much, and the 777ER struggles with (e. g. SFOSYD, SFOAKL) where the 359 would be perfect.

I still see the 359 as a nice eventual replacement for some of those 777ERs giving them both range and capacity. I'll bet they eventually take them and do just that.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 1262
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 5:36 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
EChid wrote:
I'm confused by some of the reasoning here.

1) Lower acquisition cost - maybe, or maybe not if you consider the costs of cancelling the order
3) Less capacity for better yields - sometimes that's what it means - sometimes it just means lost chances of flying customers and UA has a significant share of the TPAC market

But what I really don't understand is "The A359 is less and less likely to be UA's fleet the longer this plays out." - UA has updated their order and restated the delivery date, I'm not sure how that's "playing things out". Is "playing it out" just waiting for the delivery dates to arrive? Additionally, it's been pretty clearly stated by others in this thread that this order of 789s is fundamentally to replace retiring 767s, not 77Es - which is what the A359s are meant to replace.


"Maybes" are still reasons why they would not take the A350. It's no secret that at today's prices the 787 has a very attractive acquisition price. Airlines are not afraid to give up likely good early pricing if a better solution exists to them later (AA/A350, DL/787). Pushing back an order is never a positive sign for taking delivery, particularly when there has been a regime change.

Commonly I read the simplistic mistake of thinking that the capacity airlines fly now is exactly what they want now and in the future, leading so many to thinking that airlines need a 1 for 1 replacement in capacity. It's simply not what we see in the real world. It's very common for airlines to downgauge with newer technology that allows smaller aircraft to fly the same mission. UA is doing it right now. I suspect UA will think the same again. Do people even realize that UA's current 789s have only 17 fewer seats than the IPTE 772s? It's not a large capacity gap. I chuckle then when the same people speculate that 789s are replacing 763s, when the capacity gap between them is larger. They certainly can and do, but suddenly that 1 for 1 constraint is out the window.

EChid wrote:
American is a different airline with different needs. They don't have nearly as many 772s, and don't have nearly the foothold in the TPAC market that UA does. UA clearly uses and values that aircraft size and range, and Boeing currently doesn't offer that combination.

Think about other airlines that do a lot of TPAC, like SQ or CA. They readily operate 787s, A350s, and 777s, with key roles for each type to play in their route network.


UA has only 8 more -200ERs than AA. True about TPAC, although UA largely doesn't operate the 772 to Pacific cities where the 772's range is needed. The majority of UA's current 772 missions can be covered by an aircraft with less range.


Agreed. And UA can still upguage capacity on routes using the 787-9. For example a current city only served by SFO could get an additional flight via IAH or ORD. They can also have different configurations of the 789 such as premium heavy or coach heavy to match capacity needs.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9527
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 5:50 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
I see zero reason for them not to take the A350-900.


I can think of a few big ones:

1) Lower acquisition cost
2) Lower operating cost
3) Less capacity for better yields
4) Fleet commonality

The A359 is less and less likely to be UA's fleet the longer this plays out. This order chips away at those chances again.


It’ll be interesting to see which way they go. I just don’t see anything precluding them from taking theses birds.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
Bald1983
Posts: 622
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 6:31 pm

Airlinepilot129 wrote:
Bald1983 wrote:
United is continuing the policy of Continental, namely fund the future. Since Bethune ran Continental, the Go Forward Plan was used and UAL adopted it after the merger. One prong of that plan is to fund the future. Continental seemed to have an ongoing program of fleet modernization and had the youngest of the mainline carriers. The old United made no orders, until the simultaneous orders for 787's and A-350's. I believe it is a good thing that UAL is continuing to upgrade the fleet.


While the fleet modernization program of Continental can be seen in a form of resemblance to what the combined company is doing now, I'd be really hard pressed to call it a continuation of Gordon Bethune's time at Continental. Let's not forget he was brought onto the board of directors for a brief short weeks before being run off. Let's also not forget that the entirety of Jeff Smisek's tenure at United still exists, too. Additionally, the Go Forward Plan terminated in 2005 after 10 years. The airline had transitioned to a focus on maintaining it's current status against an impending economic downturn by 2006/2007. I think it's also worth mentioning that airlines can still make larger orders for aircraft, it's just all about how they're financed.

As some others have said, people still dwelling on the pre-merger identities of the airline known today as United need to find a hobby, there are next to no similitiares to Continental despite a nearly identical corporate brand. What's going on at Willis today is new, and should be treated as such.


Gordon Bethune was not run off. He was CEO from 1994 to his retirement in 2004. During the merger, it was announced that the management would be based on the Go Forward Plan. In fact, the post merger United has maintained a fleet modernization, ala the old Continental in contrast to the old United. Smizek would have reversed much of that policy at Continental had the merger no happened and would still have been terminated. I believe Smizek's imprint on the new company is being erased.
 
tjh8402
Posts: 957
Joined: Sat Jan 12, 2013 4:20 am

Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 7:23 pm

gwrudolph wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
EChid wrote:
I'm confused by some of the reasoning here.

1) Lower acquisition cost - maybe, or maybe not if you consider the costs of cancelling the order
3) Less capacity for better yields - sometimes that's what it means - sometimes it just means lost chances of flying customers and UA has a significant share of the TPAC market

But what I really don't understand is "The A359 is less and less likely to be UA's fleet the longer this plays out." - UA has updated their order and restated the delivery date, I'm not sure how that's "playing things out". Is "playing it out" just waiting for the delivery dates to arrive? Additionally, it's been pretty clearly stated by others in this thread that this order of 789s is fundamentally to replace retiring 767s, not 77Es - which is what the A359s are meant to replace.


"Maybes" are still reasons why they would not take the A350. It's no secret that at today's prices the 787 has a very attractive acquisition price. Airlines are not afraid to give up likely good early pricing if a better solution exists to them later (AA/A350, DL/787). Pushing back an order is never a positive sign for taking delivery, particularly when there has been a regime change.

Commonly I read the simplistic mistake of thinking that the capacity airlines fly now is exactly what they want now and in the future, leading so many to thinking that airlines need a 1 for 1 replacement in capacity. It's simply not what we see in the real world. It's very common for airlines to downgauge with newer technology that allows smaller aircraft to fly the same mission. UA is doing it right now. I suspect UA will think the same again. Do people even realize that UA's current 789s have only 17 fewer seats than the IPTE 772s? It's not a large capacity gap. I chuckle then when the same people speculate that 789s are replacing 763s, when the capacity gap between them is larger. They certainly can and do, but suddenly that 1 for 1 constraint is out the window.

EChid wrote:
American is a different airline with different needs. They don't have nearly as many 772s, and don't have nearly the foothold in the TPAC market that UA does. UA clearly uses and values that aircraft size and range, and Boeing currently doesn't offer that combination.

Think about other airlines that do a lot of TPAC, like SQ or CA. They readily operate 787s, A350s, and 777s, with key roles for each type to play in their route network.


UA has only 8 more -200ERs than AA. True about TPAC, although UA largely doesn't operate the 772 to Pacific cities where the 772's range is needed. The majority of UA's current 772 missions can be covered by an aircraft with less range.


I think you are comparing apples and oranges on the 777ER and 787-9. You are comparing a 3 cabin layout (which United is converting as fast as they can) to a 2 cabin layout and 9 abreast to 10 abreast. When the 777ERs are densified to the same extent that the 787-9s came out of the factory, they will have 15-20% more seats than the 787-9s. Moreover, when the 787-9s are fitted with the new Polaris seats, they'll likely lose a few seats in overall capacity.
.


The pmUA 77Es that have Polaris but not W are probably the closest equivalent to the 787s. They seat 292, which is 15% more than the 789s. It would be interesting to see what Polaris would do to a 787 seating density as the Polaris 763 is the exact same capacity and class ratio as the pmCO 763s, so theoretically it may not change much. Of course, any 787 Polaris refit would also add W, which would mix up the seating numbers depending on if they took the space for it from J or E+ (On the 77Es they take it from Y+ so they lose about 15-20 total seats getting W).
 
ord
Posts: 1403
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 1999 10:34 pm

Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:27 pm

Airlinepilot129 wrote:
I don't believe the 77E has a replacement at United right now, it's just implied that a large order of A350s will replace them. I don't even think it's truly confirmed that the A350 will replace the 777-200A. A lot of it is speculation that's been taken for truth.


A350-900s replacing the 777-200ERs is not implied and not speculation, it is fact and confirmed (of course, anything can change):

Gerry Laderman's J.P. Morgan presentation, February 27, 2018: http://ir.united.com/news-and-events/ev ... sentations
"The A350-900 & 787-10 provide a solid tag-team 777-200ER replacement solution"
"787-10 will sufficiently cover markets below 7,200sm while A350-900 will cover longer-range markets"
"Converted from the A350-1000 to the A350-900 to fulfill 777-200ER replacement needs"

Internal memo, September 2017: https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/united- ... a359s.html
"We decided to defer these aircraft (A350) until 2022 to align with the replacement of our fleet of 55 Boeing 777-200ERs, which begin to turn 25 years old in 2023"
"The A350-900 is an outstanding aircraft with the size and range to be an excellent replacement for our 777-200ERs, and we have a substantial number of options we can exercise for more A350-900s. So if we decide to make this the sole replacement for the 777 fleet, we will be able to do so on similar, very attractive, economic terms"
 
smartplane
Posts: 1024
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 9:15 pm

flyguy84 wrote:
EChid wrote:
iahcsr wrote:
Anyone know what the penalty costs will be if that’s the ultimate decision? :scratchchin: :dollarsign: :dollarsign: :dollarsign: :eyepopping: :faint:


Well, as was mentioned, they'd have to deal with the massive cancellation costs of the contract with Rolls-Royce and, as someone else mentioned, usually the cost of cancelling a purchase contract increases when it's renegotiated (which it has been once already with Airbus) so - high, since the cancellation would be for two separate agreements. I'm not sure anybody but those party to the actual contracts would know the dollar value, but I could be wrong..

I am fairly certain that Rolls Royce will let them out of the A350 with commitments to use their engine type on another order....

Part of 'exclusive' Airbus A350 engine supplier contract. Usually claw-back penalty payable to Airbus where the customer cancels the air frame and retains or model hops the engine for a different aircraft OEM. Introduced post-EK A350 cancellation. Clause also probably applies to the A380 now, following EA exit.

RR are masters of the written contract. Only engine OEM to write in penalties and rewards for engine under and over performance.
 
klkla
Posts: 799
Joined: Fri Jul 16, 2004 8:51 am

Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 9:49 pm

ord wrote:
Airlinepilot129 wrote:
I don't believe the 77E has a replacement at United right now, it's just implied that a large order of A350s will replace them. I don't even think it's truly confirmed that the A350 will replace the 777-200A. A lot of it is speculation that's been taken for truth.


A350-900s replacing the 777-200ERs is not implied and not speculation, it is fact and confirmed (of course, anything can change):

Gerry Laderman's J.P. Morgan presentation, February 27, 2018: http://ir.united.com/news-and-events/ev ... sentations
"The A350-900 & 787-10 provide a solid tag-team 777-200ER replacement solution"
"787-10 will sufficiently cover markets below 7,200sm while A350-900 will cover longer-range markets"
"Converted from the A350-1000 to the A350-900 to fulfill 777-200ER replacement needs"

Internal memo, September 2017: https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/united- ... a359s.html
"We decided to defer these aircraft (A350) until 2022 to align with the replacement of our fleet of 55 Boeing 777-200ERs, which begin to turn 25 years old in 2023"
"The A350-900 is an outstanding aircraft with the size and range to be an excellent replacement for our 777-200ERs, and we have a substantial number of options we can exercise for more A350-900s. So if we decide to make this the sole replacement for the 777 fleet, we will be able to do so on similar, very attractive, economic terms"


This is correct people. I wouldn't count on UA canceling the A350 unless something dramatic happens to the airline and/or the economy.
 
RandWkop
Posts: 179
Joined: Sat May 05, 2012 10:56 pm

Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:45 pm

If oil goes higher, for a sustained period, they may accelerate retirement of the 772s and bring the A350s in earlier.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 1262
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sun Oct 07, 2018 3:17 am

United would also have the option of taking delivery of the A350 and selling them immediately. Delta did exactly that around 2006 with 737-800's.
 
EChid
Posts: 540
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sun Oct 07, 2018 3:22 am

MSPNWA wrote:
"Maybes" are still reasons why they would not take the A350. It's no secret that at today's prices the 787 has a very attractive acquisition price. Airlines are not afraid to give up likely good early pricing if a better solution exists to them later (AA/A350, DL/787). Pushing back an order is never a positive sign for taking delivery, particularly when there has been a regime change.


Except UA very clearly stated, in plain language (see above posts) why they were pushing back the A350 and what is was going to be used for. They're not just making a vague "we don't need them yet" statement. They changed the order, changed what it was replacing, and realigned the deliveries to match the retirement schedule of that new thing. And then made a very clear public statement about all of that.

MSPNWA wrote:
Commonly I read the simplistic mistake of thinking that the capacity airlines fly now is exactly what they want now and in the future, leading so many to thinking that airlines need a 1 for 1 replacement in capacity. It's simply not what we see in the real world. It's very common for airlines to downgauge with newer technology that allows smaller aircraft to fly the same mission. UA is doing it right now. I suspect UA will think the same again. Do people even realize that UA's current 789s have only 17 fewer seats than the IPTE 772s? It's not a large capacity gap. I chuckle then when the same people speculate that 789s are replacing 763s, when the capacity gap between them is larger. They certainly can and do, but suddenly that 1 for 1 constraint is out the window.


Absolutely correct. DL and BA have both done the same thing with the A359/A35J replacements for their 744s (Qantas too), and plenty have done that in transition to the Dreamliner. But people seem to be bending over backwards to ignore statements UA have made to prove that they have no need for a ~300 pax plane with range. It could change, but that's what UA has said they want and their current fleet usage backs that up. And note: I don't think people are saying that the 789s are to replace 763s, they're theorizing that they are freeing 788s from routes that can use 789s so that the 788s can move to 763 routes.

MSWPNWA wrote:
UA has only 8 more -200ERs than AA. True about TPAC, although UA largely doesn't operate the 772 to Pacific cities where the 772's range is needed. The majority of UA's current 772 missions can be covered by an aircraft with less range.


Okay, then I'm confused or my source is wrong. Airfleets reports UA has 74 active 777-200s and 777-200ERs while AA has 47 (-200ERs only). That's not a difference of 8.
2018: DRW-PER-HKG-ICN-MEL-AVV-BNE-OOL-SYD-YYZ-YYZ-YUL-YVR-PDX-SEA-SFO-PEK-KIX-CDG-IST-NRT-HND-BKK-FAT; AC J-TK J-OZ F-DL F-TG J/F-NH J/F-CX J-VA J
 
heavymetal
Posts: 4559
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Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sun Oct 07, 2018 4:13 am

EChid wrote:
Okay, then I'm confused or my source is wrong. Airfleets reports UA has 74 active 777-200s and 777-200ERs while AA has 47 (-200ERs only). That's not a difference of 8.


UA has 19 777-200's (non-ER) and 55 777-200ER's, hence 74 total 772's but only 8 more 777-200ER's than AA.
 
GoSharks
Posts: 122
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2015 3:23 am

Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sun Oct 07, 2018 4:19 am

tjh8402 wrote:
The pmUA 77Es that have Polaris but not W are probably the closest equivalent to the 787s. They seat 292, which is 15% more than the 789s.

According to the fleet site, none of these aircraft exist anymore.
 
727200
Posts: 633
Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2017 5:31 pm

Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sun Oct 07, 2018 4:47 am

Planespoters.net says UA has 91 777s with 13 of those 777-300s. That would leave 78.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 1262
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sun Oct 07, 2018 5:33 am

People also said HA would never trade the A350/338 for the 787. We see how that turned out.

I also wouldn't rule out a performance increase for the 787-10. The fact of the matter is that Boeing seems to be doing whatever is necessary to keep United happy. AA is split
and DL is all in for Airbus. Boeing needs United.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6881
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: United Airlines orders 9 787-9's

Sun Oct 07, 2018 5:55 am

727200 wrote:
Planespoters.net says UA has 91 777s with 13 of those 777-300s. That would leave 78.


Pretty sure it’s 19 772A’s
55 77E’s
18 77W’s
92 total

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