catiii
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Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:06 pm

Dan Reed theorizes here http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielreed/ ... 62949d701f that JetBlue is threatening to fly TATL as a sign to the Big 3 that it wants one of them to buy JetBlue. The theory is that they'll be so scared of the incursion they'll be compelled to make an acquisition.

This is a bad, bad take on a number of levels but chief amongst them is that he also hypothesizes that there is no connectivity at JFK for B6 to make TATL work, but at the same time does not mention once that BOS is a strong focus city with a number of business contracts that could make TATL work in short order. Oh, he also says the A321, "as a stretched single-aisle plane" is "a significantly less-than-ideal aircraft for serving such long-haul routes."

Thoughts?
 
Prost
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:09 pm

Thoughts are somebody is trying to goose B6 stock price.
 
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enilria
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:15 pm

catiii wrote:
Dan Reed theorizes here http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielreed/ ... 62949d701f that JetBlue is threatening to fly TATL as a sign to the Big 3 that it wants one of them to buy JetBlue. The theory is that they'll be so scared of the incursion they'll be compelled to make an acquisition.

This is a bad, bad take on a number of levels but chief amongst them is that he also hypothesizes that there is no connectivity at JFK for B6 to make TATL work, but at the same time does not mention once that BOS is a strong focus city with a number of business contracts that could make TATL work in short order. Oh, he also says the A321, "as a stretched single-aisle plane" is "a significantly less-than-ideal aircraft for serving such long-haul routes."

Thoughts?

I think that's totally false. I think they *WANT* to buy AS and this is their play to build themselves to a point where they are the acquirer and not the acquiree. Also, it makes logical sense for their network. Harder for AS to go transpac.

I also don't think AA/DL/UA would be allowed to buy them (I pray). WN maybe, but then the Europe argument is moot.
 
GalebG4
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:35 pm

I think that there is no consideration on horizon for a long time in US. AS has spent a lot on Virgin so B6 probably wan’t consolidate for long time or be consolidated. B6 has a good product that people generally like so I personally don’t think there’s need for any consolation when they are doing business great. Jet Blue has good fleet, product, CASM that is lower than US big 3 and good order book. Interjet is for sure somebody who needs to be consolidated, but if it is time to sell JetBlue then it’s today because whoever try’s to consolidate them will pay big buck.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:37 pm

I don't think Reed's piece is very compellingly argued. Among the weaknesses:

Any move to long trans-Atlantic service likely would require JetBlue to locate a number of longer-range aircraft on relatively short order, and to launch service to even more U.S. cities from New York, where it currently lacks the capacity add lots more flights.

He doesn't think there's O&D from NYC and BOS, along with all the cities that are presently connected to JFK and BOS?

P=0 on the Feds allowing Delta or United to buy B6 and keep the JFK assets -- they're already big in NYC.
 
catiii
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:49 pm

enilria wrote:
catiii wrote:
Dan Reed theorizes here http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielreed/ ... 62949d701f that JetBlue is threatening to fly TATL as a sign to the Big 3 that it wants one of them to buy JetBlue. The theory is that they'll be so scared of the incursion they'll be compelled to make an acquisition.

This is a bad, bad take on a number of levels but chief amongst them is that he also hypothesizes that there is no connectivity at JFK for B6 to make TATL work, but at the same time does not mention once that BOS is a strong focus city with a number of business contracts that could make TATL work in short order. Oh, he also says the A321, "as a stretched single-aisle plane" is "a significantly less-than-ideal aircraft for serving such long-haul routes."

Thoughts?

I think that's totally false. I think they *WANT* to buy AS and this is their play to build themselves to a point where they are the acquirer and not the acquiree. Also, it makes logical sense for their network. Harder for AS to go transpac.

I also don't think AA/DL/UA would be allowed to buy them (I pray). WN maybe, but then the Europe argument is moot.


I firmly believe JetBlue's leadership when they say the airline is not for sale, and that they want to grow organically. Reed also glossed over the idea that the reason they haven't committed to the 321LR yet is because, as Robin stated today at Investor Day, they're focused on bringing the A220 into the fleet over the next 15 months.
 
flyingcat
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:55 pm

In theory AS and B6 would be a stellar network combination but this belies the problem over who will run the show and how. AS management is great at running a great financial ship but they now little about competing for premium passengers and even less about setting up and running a TPAC or TATL network.

Of the big 3 DL is the best fit, strong JFK presence and they are very open about wanting to grow in BOS, DL gave up on BOS after 9/11 and missed out on B6 growth.

AA would be second, JFK feed could revive their more O&D oriented market and like DL they also gave up on BOS after 9/11 but have never publicly stated they want to grow their share now that the market has recovered,
 
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BN727227Ultra
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:55 pm

catiii wrote:
Dan Reed theorizes here http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielreed/ ... 62949d701f that JetBlue is threatening to fly TATL as a sign to the Big 3 that it wants one of them to buy JetBlue. The theory is that they'll be so scared of the incursion they'll be compelled to make an acquisition.

This is a bad, bad take on a number of levels but chief amongst them is that he also hypothesizes that there is no connectivity at JFK for B6 to make TATL work, but at the same time does not mention once that BOS is a strong focus city with a number of business contracts that could make TATL work in short order. Oh, he also says the A321, "as a stretched single-aisle plane" is "a significantly less-than-ideal aircraft for serving such long-haul routes."

Thoughts?


Every company is for sale--it is a board's fiduciary duty to get the best return for shareholders, and it that means a sale, so be it.
 
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Super80Fan
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:17 pm

AS is also recovering from the VX takeover, and that was small fish. I doubt they would want to deal with taking over/merging with someone the size of B6 at the moment.

I do agree with him though, B6 is not long for this world. They will either buy someone out or be bought out.
RIP McDonnell Douglas
RIP US Airways
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:28 pm

I see B6 as more likely to buy out AS than the other way around, with the desire to build up a presence on the West Coast and Alaska, and possibly give AA a challenge at DFW, especially on domestic services. That would give the USA five major national domestic airlines.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:35 pm

Big changes are coming to JetBlue.

From someone that knows a bit more… I honestly don’t see a path forward as a standalone entity with this management team in place.

They are too cautious, risk-averse, and slow to respond and execute.

The net result is a fleet of planes and a LCC product better positioned for 2010 then 2020.

What is JetBlue today?

A small southwest?
A legacy wannabe?
An ULCC in the making?
The next Alaska?

This is the internal struggle. This is not a net fodder. It is very real.

They don’t know what they want to be.

They don’t know how to get to the place they want to be.

Their stock price reflects this as Wall Street is averse to uncertainty.

It is not too late for them to turn this around… But they have to do something already! Something, anything! And they have to do it in a timely manner.

The article rightly points out...The company could no longer sit in its current position
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:38 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I see B6 as more likely to buy out AS than the other way around


I see the opposite; more than one person has privately shared the long-term vision of B6 eventually being a wholly-owned subsidiary of Alaska Air Group. And to be clear, while it would be an acquisition, the thought would be to allow full codesharing between the two, harmonization of routes between the two, and growing each brand where it made sense, acknowledging that the B6 franchise on the East Coast and the AS franchise on the West Coast should and could be grown while respecting the brand equity each already has.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
LAXBUR
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:53 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
I see B6 as more likely to buy out AS than the other way around


I see the opposite; more than one person has privately shared the long-term vision of B6 eventually being a wholly-owned subsidiary of Alaska Air Group. And to be clear, while it would be an acquisition, the thought would be to allow full codesharing between the two, harmonization of routes between the two, and growing each brand where it made sense, acknowledging that the B6 franchise on the East Coast and the AS franchise on the West Coast should and could be grown while respecting the brand equity each already has.


This makes sense. They compliment each other well enough. Only “problem” is the middle of the country. At the very least a codeshare/partnership on each coast would be nice. As a Mileage Plan member there’s still a lot of dots to connect. Losing even the meager earn rates from DL and some of AA has been frustrating.

Running two very different brands under the same umbrella would seem like a difficult feat.
 
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:03 pm

Today’s investor call was kind of like this entire year. A lot of talking and no action. I don’t really fault them for basic economy or increased bag fees. Everyone is moving there. But it’s agonizing to watch a management that can’t make a decision.

They are not going to merge with as. The pilots want wn or ua who would have much more money to win any kind of bidding. Why would a union with full scope protection and merger protection want to get bought by one that has none? It’s crazy talk. As management can keep dreaming.

A merger with b6 would patch up the biggest weaknesses that wn has. It’s hard to imagine wn pass up buying b6 at a reasonable price.

But here is the thing, just because the people running the show is overly cautious, that does not mean it’s going to be bought. At present valuation + a 50% premium that would be required to get stockholders to agree to a buyout, that would be about $10 billion. Who is looking to buy at that kind of prices?
 
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:06 pm

catiii wrote:
Dan Reed theorizes here http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielreed/ ... 62949d701f that JetBlue is threatening to fly TATL as a sign to the Big 3 that it wants one of them to buy JetBlue. The theory is that they'll be so scared of the incursion they'll be compelled to make an acquisition.

This is a bad, bad take on a number of levels but chief amongst them is that he also hypothesizes that there is no connectivity at JFK for B6 to make TATL work, but at the same time does not mention once that BOS is a strong focus city with a number of business contracts that could make TATL work in short order. Oh, he also says the A321, "as a stretched single-aisle plane" is "a significantly less-than-ideal aircraft for serving such long-haul routes."

Thoughts?

The Only Legacy that could want JBLU is United, because United is the only one that's not into JFK with the other Star Alliance carriers. Hell ! We fly A320's and A319's as well and work on and with the CFM-56 engines, and I don't see much of any problem in having them come aboard. However!! That's NOT to say this is anything more than a Rumor! I'd take this with a "Grain of Salt" first..
 
boeing737max
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:11 pm

enilria wrote:
catiii wrote:
Dan Reed theorizes here http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielreed/ ... 62949d701f that JetBlue is threatening to fly TATL as a sign to the Big 3 that it wants one of them to buy JetBlue. The theory is that they'll be so scared of the incursion they'll be compelled to make an acquisition.

This is a bad, bad take on a number of levels but chief amongst them is that he also hypothesizes that there is no connectivity at JFK for B6 to make TATL work, but at the same time does not mention once that BOS is a strong focus city with a number of business contracts that could make TATL work in short order. Oh, he also says the A321, "as a stretched single-aisle plane" is "a significantly less-than-ideal aircraft for serving such long-haul routes."

Thoughts?

I think that's totally false. I think they *WANT* to buy AS and this is their play to build themselves to a point where they are the acquirer and not the acquiree. Also, it makes logical sense for their network. Harder for AS to go transpac.

I also don't think AA/DL/UA would be allowed to buy them (I pray). WN maybe, but then the Europe argument is moot.

No way the big three would be allowed to buy them. AA would be too big, while also capturing one of their weak areas (North East). DL would control nearly all of JFK, while also solidifying BOS as a major hub. UA would have complete control of the New York area with acquiring JFK slots. No way... But I truly hope I am correct.
 
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:15 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
I see the opposite; more than one person has privately shared the long-term vision of B6 eventually being a wholly-owned subsidiary of Alaska Air Group. And to be clear, while it would be an acquisition, the thought would be to allow full codesharing between the two, harmonization of routes between the two, and growing each brand where it made sense, acknowledging that the B6 franchise on the East Coast and the AS franchise on the West Coast should and could be grown while respecting the brand equity each already has.


This was also a suggestion when AS bought VX because the Virgin brand supposedly had such a following. The AS pilot contract requires all mainline flying to be done by pilots on the AS seniority list. They simply can’t run a separate operation flying mainline sized aircraft. The AS pilot group would be fools to allow it. Talk about a whipsaw! No matter how many people have privately shared this long term vision, it’s not feasible.

The combined B6/AS network would look a lot like the old HP/US network. Coastal heavy, without any real network in the SE or SW. Not big enough combined. Both will be gone inside 10 years, like it or not.
A300/A310/A319/A320/A321/A332/A333/707/712/727/732/733/734/735/738/739/752/753/762/763/764/772/789/DC8/DC9-10/30/40/50/MD81/83/87/88/90/L1011-/250/500/CRJ200/440/700/900/EMB135/140/145/170/175/190/328Jet/F70/SF3/BE1/J31
 
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:23 pm

As someone in mid sized airport America, what difference does it make? Neither are connecting us to the coasts. They just keep competing with the Legacies on the same old routes. I'm a no nothing no body but I'd give BOS-MEM-FLL-MEM-BOS a try on one of the embraers.
 
hiflyeras
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:30 pm

toltommy wrote:
The combined B6/AS network would look a lot like the old HP/US network. Coastal heavy, without any real network in the SE or SW. Not big enough combined. Both will be gone inside 10 years, like it or not.


I don't think people realize how much AS has built up their flying from the west coast to mid-America. Some of it on E175's operated by OO or QX but much of it mainline from SEA, PDX, SAN as well as SFO, SJC and LAX to places like OMA, OKC, IND, MCI, MKE, STL etc. That's where B6 has missed the boat but they're busy defending BOS much like AS in SEA from DL. If AS were to take over B6 then that's where their A220's would be flying...BOS and JFK to middle America..
 
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:35 pm

Blue Hawaiian is the only logical one. Hawaiian could start Atlantic flights in 6 months. JetBlue has the domestic feed.

Why would SWA want anything to do with B6. Two different airlines.

AS would be to much of a hassle right now. Maybe in 5 years.

UA would be interesting just for the JFK slots. But the government would ask for to much divestment to make it worth it.

Delta and AA wouldnt pass antitrust.

So that leaves HA. With a very dark horse of Spirit.
 
727200
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:37 pm

Hey UA,

-Since your the only one not flying into JFK.
-Since you both fly 320s and 319s.
-Since you are short of DL and AA by 150 and 200 aircraft, and B6 has 189 planes.
-Since they have hubs where you don't and would compliment your existing ones, plus give you a Southern one you have been looking for.

Any questions who would be the major candidate for their purchase?
 
rbavfan
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:39 pm

Funny as Hawaiian noted they can operate 2 A321neo's for lower seat mile cost than 1 A330. including crew. So how is it less-than-ideal on a TATL flight.
 
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BroadwayLimited
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:01 pm

BN727227Ultra wrote:
Every company is for sale--it is a board's fiduciary duty to get the best return for shareholders, and it that means a sale, so be it.

As someone who just recently retired, trust me, this quote is extremely accurate.

Now, don't get me wrong, none of us know what is going on, (if anything), inside the Jetblue headquarters, but for the right price, all companies are for sale, and when these sales happen, the executives of the selling company usually get a major financial windfall when the sales is complete. Why do you think so many companies these days sell, just to sell. Easy, the executives, make a fortune when these sales happens, and they then go on to their next venture.

In my working career I worked for two major companies who got bought out, by competitors. Us worker-bees got the usual line, that this sales is the greatest, no change etc. All this was BS. In both cases, the executives of my two companies, got extreme bonuses, once the sale was complete, and they were out the door two minutes after the sales closed. They looked after themselves. They could of cared less about their former workforce.

Now I am not saying in the least this might be happening at Jetblue but folks, this is how the business world works a lot these days. Stay tuned.
Signed up for Delta and Eastern Frequent Flyer Programs August 31, 1981.
 
impilot
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:01 pm

727200 wrote:
Hey UA,

-Since your the only one not flying into JFK.
-Since you both fly 320s and 319s.
-Since you are short of DL and AA by 150 and 200 aircraft, and B6 has 189 planes.
-Since they have hubs where you don't and would compliment your existing ones, plus give you a Southern one you have been looking for.

Any questions who would be the major candidate for their purchase?


Minor correction...JB will have 253 planes at the end of this year with 85 A321NEOs on order over the next 6 years.
130 A320
63 A321
60 E190
 
RL757PVD
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:02 pm

I think the only legacy scenario is one that involves a major divestment

AA - Dumps B6 FLL assets and likely some BOS, gains JFK hub
DL - Dumps B6 JFK assets and some BOS
UA - Dumps JFK (keeps small presence), grows FLL, shrinks BOS (from B6, but boosts their presence overall)

Looking at this AA/UA split of B6 is the best scenario for the big 3
JFK - AA gets hub to rival DL and notable domestic NYC presence
BOS - DL gets to own the market, UA boosts their presence
FLL - UA gains SE hub/focus city

How would it work with employees if two or more airlines wanted to split assets?
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:14 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
toltommy wrote:
The combined B6/AS network would look a lot like the old HP/US network. Coastal heavy, without any real network in the SE or SW. Not big enough combined. Both will be gone inside 10 years, like it or not.


I don't think people realize how much AS has built up their flying from the west coast to mid-America. Some of it on E175's operated by OO or QX but much of it mainline from SEA, PDX, SAN as well as SFO, SJC and LAX to places like OMA, OKC, IND, MCI, MKE, STL etc.


There are new destinations but minimal frequency. Map AS seats per day by airport, sizing the dots to reflect seat count, and you'll see AS is very much a West Coast airline. 600 seats a day out of MCI, 320 a day out of DTW... don't really change that.
 
adtall
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:27 pm

I'll reask the question, what does UA get out of merging with B6 that they want? FLL is not a southern hub, it's a Florida/Caribbean/Latin America hub. Nice to have, but worth $10 billion when IAH exists as an ok substitute, not to mention the Caribbean and Latin American coverage from EWR and IAD? Speaking of, UA already has EWR and IAD in the northeast with absolutely no need for a JFK hub or a BOS focus city/hub. BOS, I'm not sure they care anyways. Fleet similarity has been shown to not be a big factor. Measuring contests also are not good reasons to merge. What is the $10 billion reason for UA to buy B6?
 
flyguy84
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:41 pm

adtall wrote:
I'll reask the question, what does UA get out of merging with B6 that they want? FLL is not a southern hub, it's a Florida/Caribbean/Latin America hub. Nice to have, but worth $10 billion when IAH exists as an ok substitute, not to mention the Caribbean and Latin American coverage from EWR and IAD? Speaking of, UA already has EWR and IAD in the northeast with absolutely no need for a JFK hub or a BOS focus city/hub. BOS, I'm not sure they care anyways. Fleet similarity has been shown to not be a big factor. Measuring contests also are not good reasons to merge. What is the $10 billion reason for UA to buy B6?

None. If anything I see United buying Frontier. Take out a ULCC competitor. You get pilots and a lot of airbus as well as orders. F9 is slowballing the pilot negotiations which could play into this.
SFO
 
Samrnpage
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:46 pm

UA would make such a perfect case for a takeover, but would it ever be allowed? By that I mean competition laws etc?
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:48 pm

On "middle of the country"...could MCI or STL be developed into a middle-of-the-country hub for either entity? What about AUS? This is where the A220 could be useful (with the smaller A221 being for the JFK regional network). Austin Bergstrom, despite the dogfight there, seems like an area where a nice 50-75 flight operation could be built up with the A223...WN has the biggest presence there with about 30 destinations. None of the US3 fly to AUS except from a hub. This is a potentially untapped opportunity.

As for a buyout or buying, AS keeps getting brought up because that's the only suitor with whom a transaction would be vertical. AA would not be allowed to buy B6 because it would be horizontal in the NYC market (AA was driven off a lot of routes by B6). DL, with its second-largest operation being in NYC with more than 500 daily flights from the market, would consolidate too much power, and UA, which has a fortress hub at Newark, would have too much market share too. That leaves AS. Now, AS has the larger market cap, but B6 has the slots that would command a higher price at a slot-restricted airport (JFK).
 
727200
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:57 pm

adtall wrote:
I'll reask the question, what does UA get out of merging with B6 that they want? FLL is not a southern hub, it's a Florida/Caribbean/Latin America hub. Nice to have, but worth $10 billion when IAH exists as an ok substitute, not to mention the Caribbean and Latin American coverage from EWR and IAD? Speaking of, UA already has EWR and IAD in the northeast with absolutely no need for a JFK hub or a BOS focus city/hub. BOS, I'm not sure they care anyways. Fleet similarity has been shown to not be a big factor. Measuring contests also are not good reasons to merge. What is the $10 billion reason for UA to buy B6?


You do not see the big picture.

BOS is close to CT; especially Greenwich where a lot of investment bankers live or have business. Plus with the gates you can start Int'l flying to the major centers of Europe. Not make it a 'hub' but a focus city that commands high fares.
Now drop over to JFK and the corporate contracts that do not want to go to EWR. Plus, with all due respect to EWR, it is not NY.
Now go down to FL and its 'focus cities' that people from the NE would rather fly to non-stop than what their present options are. And IAH is half-way across the Country to make any influence on FL.
As for common fleet, tell that to both AA and UA on their last earnings call both stating they wanted to cut the number of different types of aircraft in their fleets for decreased costs including crew training.

As for regulators, they can be manipulated. Take some of B6 assets and sell them off to a competitor to make the fed's happy.

Any deal is doable, the question is are the parties willing to do it?
 
RL757PVD
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:31 am

727200 wrote:

You do not see the big picture.

BOS is close to CT; especially Greenwich where a lot of investment bankers live or have business.


You may want to consult a map... BOS is not even the 10th closest commercial service airport to Greenwich, CT...
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
Cointrin330
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:36 am

flyingcat wrote:
In theory AS and B6 would be a stellar network combination but this belies the problem over who will run the show and how. AS management is great at running a great financial ship but they now little about competing for premium passengers and even less about setting up and running a TPAC or TATL network.

Of the big 3 DL is the best fit, strong JFK presence and they are very open about wanting to grow in BOS, DL gave up on BOS after 9/11 and missed out on B6 growth.

AA would be second, JFK feed could revive their more O&D oriented market and like DL they also gave up on BOS after 9/11 but have never publicly stated they want to grow their share now that the market has recovered,


Actually, the best fit would be AA. That would solve AA's JFK and NYC issue more broadly. The DOJ probably would OK it. DL/B6? I don't see the DOJ approving that one.
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1670
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:38 am

I've said it before and I will say it again. If JetBlue is up for sale SOUTHWEST will be the ones buying them.
JetBlues overall value is 75% more than what AirTran brand gave WN in Revenue synergies.
With BOS,JFK,FLL,SJU, Caribbean and Additional LGA,DCA slots Theirs no way WN going to pass on it.



Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
tphuang
Posts: 3002
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:40 am

BroadwayLimited wrote:
BN727227Ultra wrote:
Every company is for sale--it is a board's fiduciary duty to get the best return for shareholders, and it that means a sale, so be it.

As someone who just recently retired, trust me, this quote is extremely accurate.

Now, don't get me wrong, none of us know what is going on, (if anything), inside the Jetblue headquarters, but for the right price, all companies are for sale, and when these sales happen, the executives of the selling company usually get a major financial windfall when the sales is complete. Why do you think so many companies these days sell, just to sell. Easy, the executives, make a fortune when these sales happens, and they then go on to their next venture.

In my working career I worked for two major companies who got bought out, by competitors. Us worker-bees got the usual line, that this sales is the greatest, no change etc. All this was BS. In both cases, the executives of my two companies, got extreme bonuses, once the sale was complete, and they were out the door two minutes after the sales closed. They looked after themselves. They could of cared less about their former workforce.

Now I am not saying in the least this might be happening at Jetblue but folks, this is how the business world works a lot these days. Stay tuned.


exactly. Agreed 100%.

727200 wrote:

You do not see the big picture.

BOS is close to CT; especially Greenwich where a lot of investment bankers live or have business. Plus with the gates you can start Int'l flying to the major centers of Europe. Not make it a 'hub' but a focus city that commands high fares.
Now drop over to JFK and the corporate contracts that do not want to go to EWR. Plus, with all due respect to EWR, it is not NY.
Now go down to FL and its 'focus cities' that people from the NE would rather fly to non-stop than what their present options are. And IAH is half-way across the Country to make any influence on FL.
As for common fleet, tell that to both AA and UA on their last earnings call both stating they wanted to cut the number of different types of aircraft in their fleets for decreased costs including crew training.

As for regulators, they can be manipulated. Take some of B6 assets and sell them off to a competitor to make the fed's happy.

Any deal is doable, the question is are the parties willing to do it?


You are also missing a very critical part. In LGA/JFK and south beach, B6 is the second or third largest player. They make it work due to their low cost, not because they generate overall revenue premium over the leading legacy carrier. UA cannot possibly be profitable generating the revenues that B6 generate right now at those stations.

UA at FLL would die a slow painful death against AA's power house at MIA. If it couldn't beat AA at MIA. What makes you think it could at FLL with limited number of gates and strong competition from WN/NK?

at LGA/JFK, UA would be a second behind DL and have far less LGA slots than AA. They need 20 or 30 slots to complement. They don't need 180 slots. If they want to beat DL in NYC, they need some of DL's LGA slots and limited number of JFK slots. Again, B6 makes JFK within perimeter work with their low cost. DL makes it work with their connections to international flying. UA doesn't have B6's cost and it's not going to add large number of European flights to compete with its operation at EWR. So it can't make the within perimeter stuff work.

at BOS, they would be the largest, but is that worth $10 billion?

mint gives UA nothing new. Neither does the island flying that B6 is so good at.

The airline that would get by far the most is WN, followed by AA.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:50 am

I know nothing about whether B6 is going to be sold, merge, or whatever. But B6 going transatlantic has nothing to do with it. It is a completely logical move for an airline with two of its biggest bases in BOS and JFK. Some may argue it is overdue.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:51 am

jfklganyc wrote:
Big changes are coming to JetBlue.

From someone that knows a bit more… I honestly don’t see a path forward as a standalone entity with this management team in place.

They are too cautious, risk-averse, and slow to respond and execute.

The net result is a fleet of planes and a LCC product better positioned for 2010 then 2020.

What is JetBlue today?

A small southwest?
A legacy wannabe?
An ULCC in the making?
The next Alaska?

This is the internal struggle. This is not a net fodder. It is very real.

They don’t know what they want to be.

They don’t know how to get to the place they want to be.

Their stock price reflects this as Wall Street is averse to uncertainty.

It is not too late for them to turn this around… But they have to do something already! Something, anything! And they have to do it in a timely manner.

The article rightly points out...The company could no longer sit in its current position
It sure looks like a legacy wannabe.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 435
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:55 am

jfklganyc wrote:

What is JetBlue today?

A small southwest?
A legacy wannabe?
An ULCC in the making?
The next Alaska?

This is the internal struggle. This is not a net fodder. It is very real.

They don’t know what they want to be.


With the plan they've laid out, The Next Alaska is the best they have come up with. A middle size airline with a loyal regional following. This is what we get until the inevitable merge or take over.


EA CO AS wrote:
I see the opposite; more than one person has privately shared the long-term vision of B6 eventually being a wholly-owned subsidiary of Alaska Air Group. And to be clear, while it would be an acquisition, the thought would be to allow full codesharing between the two, harmonization of routes between the two, and growing each brand where it made sense, acknowledging that the B6 franchise on the East Coast and the AS franchise on the West Coast should and could be grown while respecting the brand equity each already has.


You have lost your mind if you think B6 should operate independently under the AAG. The Unions would never allow it, and you'd be doubling your efforts supporting two brands while dealing with the wastage of two separate fleets that could NOT be crewed by the each other's work force.

It would be a hard pill to swallow to see the jetBlue name go away, but level headed people would allow that to happen if a new merger name came about for the greater good of all. I hope the people in Seattle understand that Alaska cannot remain the name of a new national carrier. If jetBlue can give up its much more valuable and recognized brand name, then Alaska sure can. How about Blue-Horizon Airways? That sounds pretty and can pay homage to the great northwest but would have world wide appeal too. "Alaska" in London, Paris, or Hong Kong (or NYC) won't work, sorry.

Those people want something that sounds sophisticated, worldly and culturally rich, they don't want their friends thinking they are boarding a flight to Anchorage or Fairbanks.
Last edited by CobaltScar on Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
N649DL
Posts: 517
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:21 pm

Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:56 am

Maybe it all goes back to those rumors about UA buying B6 out. They'll be able to return to JFK and have a southern hub in FLL. They would have to drop routes and gates at EWR which might work in their favor as it's the most captive NYC airport.
 
izbtmnhd
Posts: 840
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:06 pm

Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:57 am

727200 wrote:
adtall wrote:
I'll reask the question, what does UA get out of merging with B6 that they want? FLL is not a southern hub, it's a Florida/Caribbean/Latin America hub. Nice to have, but worth $10 billion when IAH exists as an ok substitute, not to mention the Caribbean and Latin American coverage from EWR and IAD? Speaking of, UA already has EWR and IAD in the northeast with absolutely no need for a JFK hub or a BOS focus city/hub. BOS, I'm not sure they care anyways. Fleet similarity has been shown to not be a big factor. Measuring contests also are not good reasons to merge. What is the $10 billion reason for UA to buy B6?


You do not see the big picture.

BOS is close to CT; especially Greenwich where a lot of investment bankers live or have business. Plus with the gates you can start Int'l flying to the major centers of Europe. Not make it a 'hub' but a focus city that commands high fares.
Now drop over to JFK and the corporate contracts that do not want to go to EWR. Plus, with all due respect to EWR, it is not NY.
Now go down to FL and its 'focus cities' that people from the NE would rather fly to non-stop than what their present options are. And IAH is half-way across the Country to make any influence on FL.
As for common fleet, tell that to both AA and UA on their last earnings call both stating they wanted to cut the number of different types of aircraft in their fleets for decreased costs including crew training.

As for regulators, they can be manipulated. Take some of B6 assets and sell them off to a competitor to make the fed's happy.

Any deal is doable, the question is are the parties willing to do it?


Greenwich is literally in the NYC Metro area. What are you talking about? Not all of New England is based around Boston.
 
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STT757
Posts: 13832
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:59 am

Regarding UA as a potential buyer of B6, I say there's a better alternative for UA. I say NK would be a better acquisition for a couple reasons:

Smaller company than B6, Airbus commonality with UA's, FLL hub, a work force that would love to work for UA (no issues with brand loyalty for Spirit), they're not at JFK but they do have more LGA slots than B6.

UA acquiring NK reminds me of CO's acquisition of PeoplExpress, taking an ultra LCC with a not great reputation for customer service and integrating into a full service carrier. NK has sort of focus cities in UA hubs ORD, IAH, CLE, LAX which can be easily merged into UA's hub operation. Plus NK has focus cities in DFW, LAS, BWI, ATL, MYR, ACY, MCO that UA can experiment with to see if they are valid with their cost structure.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 13832
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Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:04 am

727200 wrote:
adtall wrote:
I'll reask the question, what does UA get out of merging with B6 that they want? FLL is not a southern hub, it's a Florida/Caribbean/Latin America hub. Nice to have, but worth $10 billion when IAH exists as an ok substitute, not to mention the Caribbean and Latin American coverage from EWR and IAD? Speaking of, UA already has EWR and IAD in the northeast with absolutely no need for a JFK hub or a BOS focus city/hub. BOS, I'm not sure they care anyways. Fleet similarity has been shown to not be a big factor. Measuring contests also are not good reasons to merge. What is the $10 billion reason for UA to buy B6?


You do not see the big picture.

BOS is close to CT; especially Greenwich where a lot of investment bankers live or have business. Plus with the gates you can start Int'l flying to the major centers of Europe. Not make it a 'hub' but a focus city that commands high fares.
Now drop over to JFK and the corporate contracts that do not want to go to EWR. Plus, with all due respect to EWR, it is not NY.
Now go down to FL and its 'focus cities' that people from the NE would rather fly to non-stop than what their present options are. And IAH is half-way across the Country to make any influence on FL.
As for common fleet, tell that to both AA and UA on their last earnings call both stating they wanted to cut the number of different types of aircraft in their fleets for decreased costs including crew training.

As for regulators, they can be manipulated. Take some of B6 assets and sell them off to a competitor to make the fed's happy.

Any deal is doable, the question is are the parties willing to do it?


Greenwich is 35 miles from NYC, Greenwich is 181 miles from Boston.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
mjzair
Posts: 392
Joined: Tue Nov 30, 1999 12:10 pm

Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:12 am

Point of order.. A "legacy" is an airline that was in existence prior to deregulation in the US.
So unless Tech Ventures comes up with a time machine, Jetblue will never be a legacy.
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1670
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:23 am

Maybe B6 should buy NK strengthen it's overall network in turn killing off ULCC.
BENZ on the JetBlue board after all he knows a thing or two about Spirit.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
LAXBUR
Posts: 260
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:50 am

CobaltScar wrote:
Those people want something that sounds sophisticated, worldly and culturally rich, they don't want their friends thinking they are boarding a flight to Anchorage or Fairbanks.


What did the State of Alaska or Alaska Airlines do to you exactly? lol

People get on a Southwest plane to fly from the Midwest to New England. For years folks didn’t get on Northwest planes only going to a dated geographical reference. Promiscuous persons get on Virgin planes.

Alaska has been used for 75 years. They’ve flown from California to Mexico, then Hawaii and Costa Rica. Their buggiest hub isn’t even in Alaska. The airline isn’t even based in Alaska.
 
flyby519
Posts: 1413
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:31 am

Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:15 am

wnflyguy wrote:
Maybe B6 should buy NK strengthen it's overall network in turn killing off ULCC.
BENZ on the JetBlue board after all he knows a thing or two about Spirit.

Flyguy


Not the craziest idea. The NK/B6 combo would lock down FLL and leave F9 without a merger partner (not that they need one, but everyone has already assumed F9/NK would happen)
 
Sancho99504
Posts: 635
Joined: Sun Dec 11, 2005 2:44 pm

Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:17 am

CobaltScar wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:

What is JetBlue today?

A small southwest?
A legacy wannabe?
An ULCC in the making?
The next Alaska?

This is the internal struggle. This is not a net fodder. It is very real.

They don’t know what they want to be.


With the plan they've laid out, The Next Alaska is the best they have come up with. A middle size airline with a loyal regional following. This is what we get until the inevitable merge or take over.


EA CO AS wrote:
I see the opposite; more than one person has privately shared the long-term vision of B6 eventually being a wholly-owned subsidiary of Alaska Air Group. And to be clear, while it would be an acquisition, the thought would be to allow full codesharing between the two, harmonization of routes between the two, and growing each brand where it made sense, acknowledging that the B6 franchise on the East Coast and the AS franchise on the West Coast should and could be grown while respecting the brand equity each already has.


You have lost your mind if you think B6 should operate independently under the AAG. The Unions would never allow it, and you'd be doubling your efforts supporting two brands while dealing with the wastage of two separate fleets that could NOT be crewed by the each other's work force.

It would be a hard pill to swallow to see the jetBlue name go away, but level headed people would allow that to happen if a new merger name came about for the greater good of all. I hope the people in Seattle understand that Alaska cannot remain the name of a new national carrier. If jetBlue can give up its much more valuable and recognized brand name, then Alaska sure can. How about Blue-Horizon Airways? That sounds pretty and can pay homage to the great northwest but would have world wide appeal too. "Alaska" in London, Paris, or Hong Kong (or NYC) won't work, sorry.

Those people want something that sounds sophisticated, worldly and culturally rich, they don't want their friends thinking they are boarding a flight to Anchorage or Fairbanks.



Since when did the names British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, Air France, Joon and Cathay Pacific become sophisticated, culturally rich and worldly? I mean, you could name it shitbird airways and people will flock to them if the prices are right.
kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out-USMC
 
aerohottie
Posts: 804
Joined: Mon Mar 29, 2004 3:52 pm

Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:20 am

Maybe a three-way B6/F9/NK.... then a future merge with Alaska to create a 4th major (5th if you count Southwest)
What?
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 435
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:22 am

LAXBUR wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
Those people want something that sounds sophisticated, worldly and culturally rich, they don't want their friends thinking they are boarding a flight to Anchorage or Fairbanks.


What did the State of Alaska or Alaska Airlines do to you exactly? lol

People get on a Southwest plane to fly from the Midwest to New England. For years folks didn’t get on Northwest planes only going to a dated geographical reference. Promiscuous persons get on Virgin planes.

Alaska has been used for 75 years. They’ve flown from California to Mexico, then Hawaii and Costa Rica. Their buggiest hub isn’t even in Alaska. The airline isn’t even based in Alaska.


If you've been around 75 years and your claim to fame is dominating three low population sates, its time for a marketing make over.

Fact is style matters. You can get away with more , for less, with slick marketing and style. (like at jetBlue). We can't be a slave to tradition and fly into cosmopolitan world capitals with a name that conjures images akin to Siberia and other wastelands in peoples minds, and a picture of E.T. on your planes tail.
 
alitis
Posts: 245
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2000 11:20 pm

Re: Forbes' Dan Reed: "JetBlue is For Sale!"

Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:27 am

STT757 wrote:
727200 wrote:
adtall wrote:
I'll reask the question, what does UA get out of merging with B6 that they want? FLL is not a southern hub, it's a Florida/Caribbean/Latin America hub. Nice to have, but worth $10 billion when IAH exists as an ok substitute, not to mention the Caribbean and Latin American coverage from EWR and IAD? Speaking of, UA already has EWR and IAD in the northeast with absolutely no need for a JFK hub or a BOS focus city/hub. BOS, I'm not sure they care anyways. Fleet similarity has been shown to not be a big factor. Measuring contests also are not good reasons to merge. What is the $10 billion reason for UA to buy B6?


You do not see the big picture.

BOS is close to CT; especially Greenwich where a lot of investment bankers live or have business. Plus with the gates you can start Int'l flying to the major centers of Europe. Not make it a 'hub' but a focus city that commands high fares.
Now drop over to JFK and the corporate contracts that do not want to go to EWR. Plus, with all due respect to EWR, it is not NY.
Now go down to FL and its 'focus cities' that people from the NE would rather fly to non-stop than what their present options are. And IAH is half-way across the Country to make any influence on FL.
As for common fleet, tell that to both AA and UA on their last earnings call both stating they wanted to cut the number of different types of aircraft in their fleets for decreased costs including crew training.

As for regulators, they can be manipulated. Take some of B6 assets and sell them off to a competitor to make the fed's happy.

Any deal is doable, the question is are the parties willing to do it?


Greenwich is 35 miles from NYC, Greenwich is 181 miles from Boston.


And Greenwich pretty much has an airport, HPN

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