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JakubH
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Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:18 pm

Looks like CPH is not going to be served by CX in 2019.

Could there be a replacement European destination announced soon?

Selfishly, I thought PRG could be a better bet, at least seasonally, given no direct competition to HKG and much more limited Asia presence.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... ce-in-s19/
Humility is not thinking less of yourself, it's thinking of yourself less.
 
Nami
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:46 pm

It was already expected for a while after SAS made the decision to move their HKG flights from ARN to CPH starting from the coming winter season.

CX has also already announced extra frequencies to FRA so that’s probably where the freed capacity is going.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:12 pm

Not surprised at all. CX basically bolt as they know that the market is not big enough for both them and SK together, especially when SK can at least have some connection traffic.

JakubH wrote:
Selfishly, I thought PRG could be a better bet, at least seasonally, given no direct competition to HKG and much more limited Asia presence.


As nice as that would be, I'm very doubtful. I would think CX would try something like VIE (Although OS is ending that route, it has more to do with the bad timing of the flight and OS's awful long-haul fleet) or MUC (Despite the LH competition) or even ATH before PRG.
 
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DLHAM
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:11 pm

If DUS and CPH dont work, they should maybe try the middle between the two: HAM. No competition here, high passenger Volume for a route not served and 57% of the passengers travel for Business reasons (source: anna.aero). Four weekly A350s should work just fine.
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juliuswong
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:37 am

This is the second destination in Europe that CX has dropped after short period of operation. They used to be very good at researching, planning before launching a new route in their history. This has somehow changed over recent years. I understand though that the reality and prediction might not work differently. Could it be that CX has not many options left in Europe for new route? I think they can do another destination or two in Germany say Berlin or Munich or even Vienna, Austria as some have mentioned here.

Their current European network encompasses:
BELGIUM
Brussels

DENMARK
Copenhagen

FRANCE
Paris

GERMANY
Frankfurt

IRELAND
Dublin

ITALY
Milan
Rome

NETHERLANDS
Amsterdam

SPAIN
Barcelona
Madrid

SWITZERLAND
Zurich

UNITED KINGDOM
London - Gatwick
London - Heathrow
Manchester
- Life is a journey, travel it well -
 
hz747300
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:02 am

When I look at their list of destinations in Europe it is hard to argue that they are all business destinations. DUS lasted longer than I thought it would; and CPH makes sense with the switch from SK. Can we add Moscow to that list? The holes in the network are Scandinavia, Eastern, and Central Europe to HK. Not that they have to add another destination only in Europe, by why not Berlin, Warsaw, Geneva, or Budapest? Or the surprise pick, Luxembourg, if you're looking for business travel connections.
Keep on truckin'...
 
YangFeng
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:01 am

hz747300 wrote:
When I look at their list of destinations in Europe it is hard to argue that they are all business destinations. DUS lasted longer than I thought it would; and CPH makes sense with the switch from SK. Can we add Moscow to that list? The holes in the network are Scandinavia, Eastern, and Central Europe to HK. Not that they have to add another destination only in Europe, by why not Berlin, Warsaw, Geneva, or Budapest? Or the surprise pick, Luxembourg, if you're looking for business travel connections.


Hearing that they are planning something for Central/Eastern Europe. Could be WAW, BUD or PRG. What I can say is that they are definitely interested in leisure and not only looking at business destinations, they are even looking at destinations like VCE, although I do not think that particular destination is going to happen.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Fri Oct 05, 2018 5:00 am

hz747300 wrote:
Luxembourg

Not even the ME3 fly to LUX - I highly doubt CX would.

Cheers,

C.
 
jbpdx
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Fri Oct 05, 2018 5:21 am

Big beer bust.
^
 
Waterbomber
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Fri Oct 05, 2018 5:53 am

Its quite surprising that they are sticking with BRU. They had competition from Air Belgium and yet the latter is out and CX is hanging on.
CX does offer different flight timings than all the rest offering connections to/from Asia.
 
gloom
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:39 am

YangFeng wrote:
hz747300 wrote:
When I look at their list of destinations in Europe it is hard to argue that they are all business destinations. DUS lasted longer than I thought it would; and CPH makes sense with the switch from SK. Can we add Moscow to that list? The holes in the network are Scandinavia, Eastern, and Central Europe to HK. Not that they have to add another destination only in Europe, by why not Berlin, Warsaw, Geneva, or Budapest? Or the surprise pick, Luxembourg, if you're looking for business travel connections.


Hearing that they are planning something for Central/Eastern Europe. Could be WAW, BUD or PRG.


From those three, WAW seems the most likely pick. Plenty of feeds, lots of Polish going to Australia/New Zealand as transfers (I was one as well ;) ), quickly rising market. The weakness is still relative weakness of business trips. However, with 359 and its volume it could work. PRG is slightly smaller and has less feeds, but stable as well with O&D tourists, so I guess it's pretty much 50-50 there. BUD is probably too small, neither hub for transfers, not tourist/business destination, so I'd rule them out.

Cheers,
Adam
 
xorrygva
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:52 am

Anna.aero provided some stats and hints on the next possible options a year ago:

https://www.anna.aero/2017/09/01/cathay-pacific-airways-announces-service-brussels-copenhagen-dublin/

I would think that Berlin and Geneva are the most likely options.
 
sholmes
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Fri Oct 05, 2018 7:44 am

hz747300 wrote:
When I look at their list of destinations in Europe it is hard to argue that they are all business destinations. DUS lasted longer than I thought it would; and CPH makes sense with the switch from SK. Can we add Moscow to that list? The holes in the network are Scandinavia, Eastern, and Central Europe to HK. Not that they have to add another destination only in Europe, by why not Berlin, Warsaw, Geneva, or Budapest? Or the surprise pick, Luxembourg, if you're looking for business travel connections.

I wouldn't really consider Rome as a business destination. CX suffers from competition by Chinese airlines (in addition of course to European airlines): today there is no particular reason to prefer flying CX via Hong Kong rather than a direct flight offered by a PRC airline, whose service level is today also good (even though probably inferior to CX's). In case of European business destinations, CX can still have a good number of Hong Kong bound (and departing) passengers.
 
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QuawerAir
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Fri Oct 05, 2018 8:33 am

In the Nordics, I find all other capitals excluding Copenhagen possible (Oslo, Stockholm, Helsinki and even Reykjavík). KEF could be on a seasonal /charter basis.
ATL, AYT, FRA, FUE, HEL, JFK, LCA, LHR, MUC | AY, BA, DL, FH, LH, LO | A320, A321, A333, 752, 764, 772, 788
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planemanofnz
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Fri Oct 05, 2018 9:07 am

QuawerAir wrote:
KEF

The population of Iceland, and thus catchment area of KEF, is about 300,000.

No Asian airline flies there, nor does any ME3 carrier.

CX has no links with FI or WW.

I'm going to say no.

Cheers,

C.
 
hynithuchi
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Fri Oct 05, 2018 9:28 am

xorrygva wrote:
Anna.aero provided some stats and hints on the next possible options a year ago:

https://www.anna.aero/2017/09/01/cathay-pacific-airways-announces-service-brussels-copenhagen-dublin/

I would think that Berlin and Geneva are the most likely options.

I was thinking of those Anna.aero stats too when I read about CX axing CPH. They'd be welcomed with open arms at GVA but I think that PRG and BER could be more interesting for them as both cities have a considerable O/D potential and would be used as a gateway to Central or even Western Europe. Despite having an interesting market and promising yields, GVA is simply too close to ZRH. Anyway, it seems the newly available capacity has already been allotted to FRA.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:03 am

hz747300 wrote:
When I look at their list of destinations in Europe it is hard to argue that they are all business destinations.


I suppose it depends what the threshold is by which you classify as a business destination. Even LHR's traffic, which is likely to be as business heavy as any European destination, contains roughly 30% business traffic. The overwhelming majority of traffic at any location will be leisure orientated.
 
kanye
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:17 am

Maybe Stockholm then since SAS moved it’s flight to Copenhagen.
SAS changed due to a better slot which works better with scheduling the plane from Copenhagen.
 
Kikko19
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:38 am

Will cx codeshare with SK?
 
LupineChemist
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:49 am

I would think they might use the OW hub in HEL to connect to the Nordics. Suppose it would depend on how nice AY wants to play with competition on the route.
 
Mortyman
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:40 am

Oslo

Would be nice
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:51 pm

gloom wrote:
YangFeng wrote:
hz747300 wrote:
When I look at their list of destinations in Europe it is hard to argue that they are all business destinations. DUS lasted longer than I thought it would; and CPH makes sense with the switch from SK. Can we add Moscow to that list? The holes in the network are Scandinavia, Eastern, and Central Europe to HK. Not that they have to add another destination only in Europe, by why not Berlin, Warsaw, Geneva, or Budapest? Or the surprise pick, Luxembourg, if you're looking for business travel connections.


Hearing that they are planning something for Central/Eastern Europe. Could be WAW, BUD or PRG.


From those three, WAW seems the most likely pick. Plenty of feeds, lots of Polish going to Australia/New Zealand as transfers (I was one as well ;) ), quickly rising market. The weakness is still relative weakness of business trips. However, with 359 and its volume it could work. PRG is slightly smaller and has less feeds, but stable as well with O&D tourists, so I guess it's pretty much 50-50 there. BUD is probably too small, neither hub for transfers, not tourist/business destination, so I'd rule them out.

Cheers,
Adam


WAW to me is more of a LO route than a CX route, given the continuing expansion of LO to East Asia. LO can always just enter into a similar codeshare agreement like LH, LX, and OS on HKG to Australia/NZ flights, while LO codeshare with CX on Polish domestic feed along with maybe a few central Europe cities like PRG, BER, and BUD (Again, very similar to current codeshare agreement betrween LH and CX).

GVA has the finance traffic, so wouldn't surprised me if CX eventually give that a shot.

Lastly, there's LIS, a market that I would say is similar to MAD/BCN (although slightly smaller). Plus, as some said in the TP thread, can capture those (miniscule) Macau-Portugal traffic. :duck:
 
tonystan
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:54 pm

As long as DUB is safe that’s all that matters!
My views are my own and do not reflect any other person or organisation.
 
raylee67
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:24 pm

It would be fun if CX plays a cat-and-mouse game with SAS, switching the capacity to Stockholm! Although I think they have deployed the added capacity to Frankfurt already, which is a safe bet.

xorrygva wrote:
Anna.aero provided some stats and hints on the next possible options a year ago:

https://www.anna.aero/2017/09/01/cathay-pacific-airways-announces-service-brussels-copenhagen-dublin/

I would think that Berlin and Geneva are the most likely options.


This is quite interesting. I think it would be Birmingham and Geneva though.

First, CX has been quite successful in new UK routes and additional capacity/frequencies. Both LGW and MAN are hanging around and growing, given the historic relationship that is still strong. The current Birmingham number may be underestimating the actual demand too. People going to areas closer to Birmingham may be flying to London instead, since there are direct flights and more choices.

Geneva is more exotic, but it actually has heavy high yield traffic, and surprisingly in winter, many Hong Kong people go to that area to ski, so it adds some seasonal tourist traffic during the low business travel season (e.g. Christmas).
319/20/21 332/33 342/43/45 359/51 388 707 717 732/36/3G/38/39 74R/42/43/44/4E/48 757 762/63 772/7L/73/7W 788/89 D10 M80 135/40/45 175/90 DH1/4 CRJ/R7 L10
AY LH OU SR BA FI LX
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HELyes
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:57 am

LupineChemist wrote:
I would think they might use the OW hub in HEL to connect to the Nordics. Suppose it would depend on how nice AY wants to play with competition on the route.


AY and JL have that kind of close arrangement through the Europe-Japan joint venture (with BA IB), both use their own metal on HEL-NRT. Hardly happening between AY and CX anytime soon, AY will increase HKG flights to 2x daily in S19.
 
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Flying Belgian
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Sat Oct 06, 2018 7:34 am

Any hints on how they are doing in BRU at the moment ?

Rumour as it they don't do that well, as BRU is heavily Star Alliance locked, moreover Hainan Group is rather strong here in BRU.

Air Belgium has ceased HK ops, but I don't think they were an obstacle for CX.

I also think that, Cathay wise, CPH and BRU are also victims of the dirt cheap fares offered by EK and QR...
Life is great at 41.000 feet...
 
Ferryflight
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Sat Oct 06, 2018 9:56 am

Northern Europe is a hype and trend among Asian travellers. Northern light, spectacular nature, fresh air, Nordic cuisine and more.

If you look at O&D traffic and visitor bednights, they are not traveling to Denmark as their main target but, stopping by there on their way to Finland, Norway and Sweden.
For China and Hong Kong, Denmark has the least visitors in the Nordics (ex. Iceland), yet the most seats in Scandinavia.

However as a Star Alliance hub for SAS, a great numbers of passengers to and from the Nordics consollidates there because of their widspread Nordic network.

All Nordic capitals are small compared to Most European gateways. Yes, the income and travel spenning is high, but non of them can with few exceptions sustain O&D based intercontinental routes and are dependent on feed in both ends.

Cathay was doomed as a oneworld member trying to set a footprint in Scandinavia, with low population and a very Star alliance loyal local market. Regardless of SAS moving their HKG route or not. Even if the loads where ok, one could see from promotions that the yield was catastrophic.

Also the CPH-China market is far exceeding the traffic numbers and new entries need to be filled by market stimulation.

Cathay is struggling all over their network because their previously well organized network where favorable for the Europe to China traffic. With new routes from China to Europe popping up weekly, it’s difficult for Cathay to compete with a higher cost base and longer routings into mainland China via HKG.

I believe the future in the Nordic will be more tailor made routes from China targeting the travel agencies flying directly into the biggest tourists destinations in the Nordics.

With the experience of Cathay Pacific one can just imagine the consequences for Sichuan Airlines trying the same.

Sweden unlike Denmark, Finland and Norway actually have a business and trade that can sustain a China Eastern route without the need of much feed in and out of ARN.
 
airlinermiami
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:47 am

Cathay is increasing frequencies to Madrid going daily for summer 2019.
Madrid is being served with Cathay’s newest fleet addition Airbus350-1000
 
EddieDude
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:37 pm

airlinermiami wrote:
Cathay is increasing frequencies to Madrid going daily for summer 2019.
Madrid is being served with Cathay’s newest fleet addition Airbus350-1000

Wow! That is awesome!
Upcoming flights:
April/May: AM MEX-SCL 788 (J), AM EZE-MEX 789 (J).
 
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nordikcam
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:59 pm

airlinermiami wrote:
Cathay is increasing frequencies to Madrid going daily for summer 2019.
Madrid is being served with Cathay’s newest fleet addition Airbus350-1000


CX is increasing MAD...and FRA,Tokyo, Adélaïde.
 
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PerfectGriffin
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Sat Oct 06, 2018 4:18 pm

That's disappointing. I guess when there is already so much competition to a relatively small-medium sized market, one airline has to give up first.
 
Cathay777300ER
Posts: 41
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Sat Oct 06, 2018 5:21 pm

I think Edinburgh could be a good market. It has a lot of connections with Hong Kong and is the second most visited tourist city in the UK.
 
sas767
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Re: Cathay cancels CPH in 2019

Sun Oct 07, 2018 3:27 pm

I don't know what you overall agenda is, but it is quite obviously that you do not wish anything good for Copenhagen Airport. Fair enough but you are missing some important aspects in your statements.

Ferryflight wrote:
If you look at O&D traffic and visitor bednights, they are not traveling to Denmark as their main target but, stopping by there on their way to Finland, Norway and Sweden. For China and Hong Kong, Denmark has the least visitors in the Nordics (ex. Iceland), yet the most seats in Scandinavia.


They are not travelling to Denmark, Finland, Norway or Sweden alone. Mainly they travel in groups with visit to all countries with stop of 1-3 days each place - the difference between Denmark and the three other mentioned countries is that that they here mainly visit the capital while they are after the nature in for example Norway. As you probably know Chinese travelers are very found of Copenhagen and Denmark due to H.C. Andersen. However due to high cost level in Copenhagen and high hotel prices many Chinese groups have in recent years decided to stay in Malmø in connection with their Copenhagen visit. This means that the Chinese bed-nights in Sweden becomes artificially high and the opposite in Denmark.

Oh and BTW the O&D traffic between CPH and Hong Kong is the highest in Scandinavia - just check your MIDT data.

Ferryflight wrote:
Cathay was doomed as a oneworld member trying to set a footprint in Scandinavia, with low population and a very Star alliance loyal local market. Regardless of SAS moving their HKG route or not. Even if the loads where ok, one could see from promotions that the yield was catastrophic.


Cathay was as an OneWorld carrier doomed at CPH due to their way to conservative approach. They were ready to launch CPH back in 2015 when SAS decided to open ARN-HKG. This made Cathay postponing their CPH plans in order to analyse and see the effect of the SK flight from the Scandinavian market. Three years later CPH finally came online but as a summer seasonal route with poor frequency (3x weekly) and schedule (no weekend flights). This is not the way to attract the business customers and corporate contract with the higher yielding traffic. Cathay expected that the traffic on their CPH mainly would be from Copenhagen to Hong Kong and beyond, but the opposite turned out to be the case. As OneWorld and with this schedule they were not able to capture the Scandinavian market.

When SK decided to move their HKG route from ARN to CPH, CX had two options. To cancel CPH or expand to year round operation with 4-5 weekly flights. They decided for the first option.

CPH will now be in a much better position regarding the HKG traffic with SAS soon to be online year round with 5 weekly flights I am sure this flight will work from CPH despite what was the case from ARN - it is a known "fact" that the ARN-HKG was a poor performer from day one and should have been launched from CPH in the first place (but wasn't due to political reasons and push from Jacob Wallenberg). Seen in the light of this it is quite interesting that someone try to tell a story about the strong market from Stockholm compared to Copenhagen.

Ferryflight wrote:
Also the CPH-China market is far exceeding the traffic numbers and new entries need to be filled by market stimulation.


Yes stimulation of Chinese tourism to the whole of Scandinavia and the Nordic region!

Ferryflight wrote:
I believe the future in the Nordic will be more tailor made routes from China targeting the travel agencies flying directly into the biggest tourists destinations in the Nordics.


The Chinese tour operators like to consolidate their starting points in a region to a few destinations and the size of these destinations is not necessarily the important part. At the moments the preferred points in the Nordics are Copenhagen and Helsinki. Helsinki due to the intensive China network from Finnair and Copenhagen due to huge focus on the opportunities in being entry point for the Chinese tourists - focus from both Danish political side, the Danish business community and from Copenhagen Airport. A good example is the Danish-Chinese Tourism Year in 2017.

This is also the reason why you saw Beijing Capital Airlines apply for Beijing to HEL and CPH last year. However when Air China decided to go online at CPH these plans where sabotaged. Also the reason why you saw Lucky Air announce flights to HEL, despite they never materialized in the end. Also the reason why you see Sichuan Airlines starting CPH and why both HEL and CPH are on the list of planned China Southern destination from Guangzhou before 2020 - as the only destinations in the Nordics and it is not a coincidence (https://ftnnews.com/aviation/34947-abou ... -guangzhou)

Ferryflight wrote:
With the experience of Cathay Pacific one can just imagine the consequences for Sichuan Airlines trying the same.


You can not in any way compare the Cathay and Sichuan routes to CPH. Sichuan will more or less be a charter setup for Chinese tour operators with Caissa in the front. Yes the route is available in GDS but I expect that they will sell next to zero tickets in open sale. The route is also heavily subsidized by the Sichuan Province.

Ferryflight wrote:
Sweden unlike Denmark, Finland and Norway actually have a business and trade that can sustain a China Eastern route without the need of much feed in and out of ARN.


OK, so that's the reason why China Eastern have decided to suspend the PVG-ARN route for the coming winter season with an expected return end of March 2019. And no the route was not planned to be seasonal in the first place as someone like to tell in connection with the suspension.

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