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FSDan
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Re: LH closing SJC

Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:49 pm

Blerg wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
LH published increase of LAX for S19. FRA will be 2x 748 and MUC 1x A380.


What was the MUC schedule in S18? FRA was A380 and B748, right?


Last summer, MUC-LAX was a daily 388, and FRA-LAX was a daily 346 and a daily 748. So it looks like the upgauge is the 346 moving to a second 748.
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PSAatSAN4Ever
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Re: LH closing SJC

Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:20 pm

FSDan wrote:
Blerg wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
LH published increase of LAX for S19. FRA will be 2x 748 and MUC 1x A380.


What was the MUC schedule in S18? FRA was A380 and B748, right?


Last summer, MUC-LAX was a daily 388, and FRA-LAX was a daily 346 and a daily 748. So it looks like the upgauge is the 346 moving to a second 748.


The summer of 2017 it was a 388 and 748 to FRA and the A346 to MUC. At the time, while getting ready to fly the 748 LAX-FRA, there was discussion here about the upcoming movement of the A380's and A350's to MUC to free up some transfers at FRA, and leave that to primarily O&D.

I'm also delighted that the Queen of the Skies has found a new home with Lufthansa, who seems to be quite happy with this sub-fleet that can be moved around based on a rise in demand on premium-heavy routes!
 
mnik101
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Re: LH closing SJC

Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:23 am

What are the chances that LH comes back to SJC later on?

I think the problem with economics of this route was due to the deployment of the A343 on it. If they used something more fuel efficient, like the A333 or A359 (when more enter their fleet), the route could be more viable.

Also if they pushed out the SJC departure time out by a couple hours, say around 5-6pm, it would compliment the the existing flights from SFO, positioning in between their 3pm FRA and 9PM MUC flights, and would be more attractive to the business community.
 
mnik101
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Re: LH closing SJC

Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:04 am

Would love to see LH try SJC again, but with a few changes as I stated earlier, a later SJC departure time, on more efficient equipment like the A333 or A359, and perhaps fly to MUC instead of FRA.
 
dcajet
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Re: LH closing SJC

Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:23 am

mnik101 wrote:
What are the chances that LH comes back to SJC later on?

I think the problem with economics of this route was due to the deployment of the A343 on it. If they used something more fuel efficient, like the A333 or A359 (when more enter their fleet), the route could be more viable.

Also if they pushed out the SJC departure time out by a couple hours, say around 5-6pm, it would compliment the the existing flights from SFO, positioning in between their 3pm FRA and 9PM MUC flights, and would be more attractive to the business community.


I am not sure that an A333 (particularly the MTOW versions used by LH) has the legs to do a MUC-SJC - a 242T, sure, but those are not employed by LH. An A359, while perfect for such a route, is too premium a plane. I say if and when we see gas prices going down again we might see Lufty back in San Jose. In the current economic scenario, a SJC operation has got to be chipping away at the SFO yields. That said, I agree the A343 is not the ideal plane for the route.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
axiom
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Re: LH closing SJC

Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:51 am

mnik101 wrote:
What are the chances that LH comes back to SJC later on?

I think the problem with economics of this route was due to the deployment of the A343 on it. If they used something more fuel efficient, like the A333 or A359 (when more enter their fleet), the route could be more viable.

Also if they pushed out the SJC departure time out by a couple hours, say around 5-6pm, it would compliment the the existing flights from SFO, positioning in between their 3pm FRA and 9PM MUC flights, and would be more attractive to the business community.


Don't you think that LH, the company which invested many hundreds of thousands of dollars in this route, would have considered that?
 
mnik101
Posts: 161
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Re: LH closing SJC

Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:22 am

axiom wrote:
mnik101 wrote:
What are the chances that LH comes back to SJC later on?

I think the problem with economics of this route was due to the deployment of the A343 on it. If they used something more fuel efficient, like the A333 or A359 (when more enter their fleet), the route could be more viable.

Also if they pushed out the SJC departure time out by a couple hours, say around 5-6pm, it would compliment the the existing flights from SFO, positioning in between their 3pm FRA and 9PM MUC flights, and would be more attractive to the business community.


Don't you think that LH, the company which invested many hundreds of thousands of dollars in this route, would have considered that?



Actually I don't think they did. LH, in my opinion, opened this route in response to BA's opening of SJC-LHR, but in their haste did not plan and market it properly, particularly to the Middle Eastern and South Asian communities of the South Bay. The connections and convenience of this route would have been a great selling point. But time and again most were not aware it even existed! More effort could have been made to make it work.

At the very least fly a few Mainline A340's on the route, Seeing a giant A340 with "Lufthansa" written on the side, with the blue and yellow crane on it's tail is a great flying billboard for the route as flies over San Jose on final approach, as opposed to the black and white Star Alliance jets which never really got the word out.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: LH closing SJC

Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:49 pm

SFOA380 wrote:
Carriers may be adding flights, but other airlines are dropping flights to the Bay Area at the same time. EY left SFO, CA left SJC, LH is leaving SJC, BA left OAK, QR announced service and still hasn't started it. I'm sure I'm forgetting more.


...just like they do everywhere else

Bay Area has had more international growth than anywhere in the US over the past five years.[/quote]

No, it hasn't. We can see more recent data when the DOT releases its latest 'U.S. International Air Passenger and Freight Statistics' report ending 9/18, but for the period 12-months ending 3/13 to 12 mos-3/18, LAX had a greater increase in international passenger count than SFO+SJC+OAK.

SJC and OAK weren't listed in the report ending 3/13 (meaning they had fewer than the 198K passengers of #25 CLE).

LAX, 3/13: 16.8 million; 3/2018, 24.7 million

SFO, 3/13 9.2 million; SFO+SJC+OAK, 3/2018, 14.9 million
 
jasoncrh
Posts: 784
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Re: LH closing SJC

Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:15 pm

actually,I've worked with Lufthansa's network planning group in Germany and their sales and marketing teams in California. Their network planning group extensively modeled and remodeled and tried to make this flight work. The simple thing is that it didn't. the sales and marketing team in the SF / Bay Area worked very closely with industry, and with the VFR community. For most of the people that worked at the vaunted tech companies - the ones that generate the premium traffic-, they actually lived closer to SFO. Making flights from SFO overall more convenient for them. those VFR to India/ etc passengers just weren't interested and went with whoever hade the lowest fare. If you truly think that LH just threw a flight in, making a huge multi million dollar bet willy nilly without attempting to do homework, you're pretty naive. Also, I'm sorry. Most people sitting around Silicon Valley aren't looking up at planes flying in the air and making the determination of whether they're going to fly airline x or airline y based on something they MAY see flying at several hundred to several thousand feet. They're making the decision based on what their travel agent presents to them or what they see on the online booking channels. If you think otherwise, then further naivete.

mnik101 wrote:
axiom wrote:
mnik101 wrote:
What are the chances that LH comes back to SJC later on?

I think the problem with economics of this route was due to the deployment of the A343 on it. If they used something more fuel efficient, like the A333 or A359 (when more enter their fleet), the route could be more viable.

Also if they pushed out the SJC departure time out by a couple hours, say around 5-6pm, it would compliment the the existing flights from SFO, positioning in between their 3pm FRA and 9PM MUC flights, and would be more attractive to the business community.


Don't you think that LH, the company which invested many hundreds of thousands of dollars in this route, would have considered that?



Actually I don't think they did. LH, in my opinion, opened this route in response to BA's opening of SJC-LHR, but in their haste did not plan and market it properly, particularly to the Middle Eastern and South Asian communities of the South Bay. The connections and convenience of this route would have been a great selling point. But time and again most were not aware it even existed! More effort could have been made to make it work.

At the very least fly a few Mainline A340's on the route, Seeing a giant A340 with "Lufthansa" written on the side, with the blue and yellow crane on it's tail is a great flying billboard for the route as flies over San Jose on final approach, as opposed to the black and white Star Alliance jets which never really got the word out.
 
SFOtoORD
Posts: 1218
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2007 2:26 am

Re: LH closing SJC

Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:22 pm

Not positive it was LH, but saw two semis each hauling a cargo loader truck North on 101 on the peninsula the other night. Thought it might be LH moving the equipment back to SFO. Could also have just been a random equipment delivery.
 
jasoncrh
Posts: 784
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 10:29 pm

Re: LH closing SJC

Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:54 pm

??? they're still flying there and still flying their flights. they kind of need that equipment until the flight ends.

SFOtoORD wrote:
Not positive it was LH, but saw two semis each hauling a cargo loader truck North on 101 on the peninsula the other night. Thought it might be LH moving the equipment back to SFO. Could also have just been a random equipment delivery.
 
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SFOA380
Posts: 578
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Re: LH closing SJC

Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:52 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
SFOA380 wrote:
Carriers may be adding flights, but other airlines are dropping flights to the Bay Area at the same time. EY left SFO, CA left SJC, LH is leaving SJC, BA left OAK, QR announced service and still hasn't started it. I'm sure I'm forgetting more.


...just like they do everywhere else

Bay Area has had more international growth than anywhere in the US over the past five years.


No, it hasn't. We can see more recent data when the DOT releases its latest 'U.S. International Air Passenger and Freight Statistics' report ending 9/18, but for the period 12-months ending 3/13 to 12 mos-3/18, LAX had a greater increase in international passenger count than SFO+SJC+OAK.

SJC and OAK weren't listed in the report ending 3/13 (meaning they had fewer than the 198K passengers of #25 CLE).

LAX, 3/13: 16.8 million; 3/2018, 24.7 million

SFO, 3/13 9.2 million; SFO+SJC+OAK, 3/2018, 14.9 million[/quote]


Correct. I meant % growth and I should have clarified.
 
SonaSounds
Posts: 282
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Re: LH closing SJC

Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:32 pm

clrd4t8koff wrote:
simpv wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:
The Bay Area is over served internationally. This doesn’t surprise me at all.


I hate statements that say something is overserved or underserved, it doesn't make any sense. First, international carriers are overall expanding in the Bay Area (UA to AMS, El Al addition, additional flights with AI, AY extension, Level with BCN, two new connections to PPT...I could go on); some airlines try things and, because of uncertainty, some don't pan out. I generally believe that in an era of deregulation, adjustments to schedules and failed routes are to be expected. I end my digression.


Carriers may be adding flights, but other airlines are dropping flights to the Bay Area at the same time. EY left SFO, CA left SJC, LH is leaving SJC, BA left OAK, QR announced service and still hasn't started it. I'm sure I'm forgetting more.


LH gave a good run at SJC, but even with decent to great summer load factors they still couldn't make the flight work. SJC spent $600k of their own money marketing the flight to the local community besides what LH put in and the flight still couldn't work. As much as we want to see OAK + SJC do well in the Bay Area with international service they future argument for expanded international service seems fairly weak.

SFO has added 16 new over the water international carriers over the past 5 years (plus numerous 2nd and 3rd daily flights and a half dozen new nonstops by United) and lost only 2: AB due to the airline collapsing and EY due to bad financial investments (see AB, AZ etc). QR ended up experiencing political blockades which has made the flight paths to the USA west coast difficult + never announced a specific start date.

SJC on the other hand has added 5 new over the water international carriers and is losing 2 of them: CA due to low load factors + knee jerk response to HU and LH due to poor performance.

OAK has added 3 new over the water international carriers over the past 5 years and has already lost 2 of them: BA is cancelling due to poor performance and Level is moving over the SFO due to consolidating IAG group and chasing higher yields. DY is also on the verge of pulling out with very likely starting to push over some of their service over to SFO in S19.


The big difference between SJC/OAK and SFO is that SFO didn't lose any service due to poor performance but rather airlines collapsing or financial difficulties. SJC/OAK on the other hand are losing their service simply due to the fact the flights cannot make money. SFO gives airlines hardly anything in marketing support while both OAK and SJC give each airline $500k-$600k in marketing support alone.

In all of our heads we think SJC/OAK should work and on paper the case seems to be strong. But in actuality it has been tried multiple times and the flights do marginal at best. For whatever reason the Bay Area secondary airports continue to struggle to hold onto long haul international service no matter how much a.net thinks it should work.
 
mnik101
Posts: 161
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Re: LH closing SJC

Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:20 pm

jasoncrh wrote:
actually,I've worked with Lufthansa's network planning group in Germany and their sales and marketing teams in California. Their network planning group extensively modeled and remodeled and tried to make this flight work. The simple thing is that it didn't. the sales and marketing team in the SF / Bay Area worked very closely with industry, and with the VFR community. For most of the people that worked at the vaunted tech companies - the ones that generate the premium traffic-, they actually lived closer to SFO. Making flights from SFO overall more convenient for them. those VFR to India/ etc passengers just weren't interested and went with whoever hade the lowest fare. If you truly think that LH just threw a flight in, making a huge multi million dollar bet willy nilly without attempting to do homework, you're pretty naive. Also, I'm sorry. Most people sitting around Silicon Valley aren't looking up at planes flying in the air and making the determination of whether they're going to fly airline x or airline y based on something they MAY see flying at several hundred to several thousand feet. They're making the decision based on what their travel agent presents to them or what they see on the online booking channels. If you think otherwise, then further naivete.

mnik101 wrote:
axiom wrote:

Don't you think that LH, the company which invested many hundreds of thousands of dollars in this route, would have considered that?



Actually I don't think they did. LH, in my opinion, opened this route in response to BA's opening of SJC-LHR, but in their haste did not plan and market it properly, particularly to the Middle Eastern and South Asian communities of the South Bay. The connections and convenience of this route would have been a great selling point. But time and again most were not aware it even existed! More effort could have been made to make it work.

At the very least fly a few Mainline A340's on the route, Seeing a giant A340 with "Lufthansa" written on the side, with the blue and yellow crane on it's tail is a great flying billboard for the route as flies over San Jose on final approach, as opposed to the black and white Star Alliance jets which never really got the word out.



As someone who lives and works ins San Jose, I can tell first hand that LH did a lousy job marketing the route to people in the South Bay. If this was best that the LH sales and marketing team in the Bay Area could do, I'm sorry but they need to be fired.

It is quite odd that LH put up billboards near SFO and in San Fracisco marketing the SJC route, yet the put up ZERO !!!! around San Jose, say for a few buses and light rail cars. There was zero TV, radio, and print ads, and very anemic digital and social media marketing targeted to specifically on the South Bay.

There was very little to no out outreach to the Middle Eastern and Indian communities in Santa Clara County with regard to this route. This route was tailor made for these communities, yet it wasn't marketed to them! I have had countless conversations with friends and family who fly regularly to these regions, who live in the South Bay, and they had no idea it was available to them, and that in many cases when we looked up the fares it was CHEAPER to fly out of SJC vs SFO!

Lastly, I guess you miss where I said "At the very least" when I was referring to LH vs Star Alliance metal. If you're not going to advertise your route in the new market your flying into, the LEAST you can do is put your name on the plane when it flies into said market.
 
SANMAN66
Posts: 979
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Re: LH closing SJC

Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:01 am

mnik101 wrote:


At the very least fly a few Mainline A340's on the route, Seeing a giant A340 with "Lufthansa" written on the side, with the blue and yellow crane on it's tail is a great flying billboard for the route as flies over San Jose on final approach, as opposed to the black and white Star Alliance jets which never really got the word out.


I thought LH did fly mainline jets for a short while on the SJC-FRA route before they shifted to the Cityline jets.I never understood why all the Cityline jets had the Star-Alliance liveries and not mainline?
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rbavfan
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Re: LH closing SJC

Sun Oct 14, 2018 4:26 am

clrd4t8koff wrote:
SurlyBonds wrote:
2. The A380 to FRA, and the A340 to MUC, are both significantly roomier and more comfortable than the A330 out of SJC.


Though the A340 is a little longer, doesn't the A340 and A330 have the same cabin size. How is the A340 significantly roomier and more comfortable than an A330?


The A340-200 & A330-200 were different lengths, but the A340-300 & A330-300 are the same fuselage length.
 
mnik101
Posts: 161
Joined: Tue May 23, 2006 3:43 pm

Re: LH closing SJC

Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:26 pm

SANMAN66 wrote:
mnik101 wrote:


At the very least fly a few Mainline A340's on the route, Seeing a giant A340 with "Lufthansa" written on the side, with the blue and yellow crane on it's tail is a great flying billboard for the route as flies over San Jose on final approach, as opposed to the black and white Star Alliance jets which never really got the word out.


I thought LH did fly mainline jets for a short while on the SJC-FRA route before they shifted to the Cityline jets.I never understood why all the Cityline jets had the Star-Alliance liveries and not mainline?


Nope, was always Cityline. They were suppose to switch to Mainline on Oct. 28th, but the last day of service is the 27th.
 
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aal151heavy
Posts: 125
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Re: LH closing SJC

Sun Oct 28, 2018 4:48 am

Last flight from SJC today (Oct 27), operated by D-AIFE. She rotated early setting up a perfect shot with Mt Hamilton.

https://flic.kr/p/2b551zg
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Chasensfo
Posts: 283
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Re: LH closing SJC

Sun Oct 28, 2018 5:32 am

aal151heavy wrote:
Last flight from SJC today (Oct 27), operated by D-AIFE. She rotated early setting up a perfect shot with Mt Hamilton.

https://flic.kr/p/2b551zg

Great shot on this perfect, clear day. Damn shame to lose LH...hopefully a European leisure airline will fill their shoes.
 
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SANFan
Posts: 5490
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Re: LH closing SJC

Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:45 pm

jasoncrh wrote:
actually,I've worked with Lufthansa's network planning group in Germany and their sales and marketing teams in California. Their network planning group extensively modeled and remodeled and tried to make this flight work. The simple thing is that it didn't. the sales and marketing team in the SF / Bay Area worked very closely with industry, and with the VFR community. For most of the people that worked at the vaunted tech companies - the ones that generate the premium traffic-, they actually lived closer to SFO. Making flights from SFO overall more convenient for them. those VFR to India/ etc passengers just weren't interested and went with whoever hade the lowest fare. If you truly think that LH just threw a flight in, making a huge multi million dollar bet willy nilly without attempting to do homework, you're pretty naive. Also, I'm sorry. Most people sitting around Silicon Valley aren't looking up at planes flying in the air and making the determination of whether they're going to fly airline x or airline y based on something they MAY see flying at several hundred to several thousand feet. They're making the decision based on what their travel agent presents to them or what they see on the online booking channels. If you think otherwise, then further naivete.

Interesting comments.

My thoughts regarding LH in the western US come up a bit different. LH has failed at at least 3 western cities over the years -- PDX, PHX and now SJC. (I really don't know about the rest of the U.S.) To me, that's not a real good record. It leads me to wonder about their research in the cities they are considering for service. Perhaps these were all very viable cities when LH did their homework and made the decision to serve them, and then things changed? Nasty economic conditions? LH took some gambles back a few years ago?

I'm really not trying to be snarky but I'm not sure I understand how a company like LH could fail that many times in one region of one country in the world?

I'm also a bit concerned because of the recent launch at SAN; I certainly don't want to see another failure by LH there! I know that SAN has been trying for years to land LH at Lindbergh Field and I was sure LH did a lot of research before making their decision and I certainly hope it was a good one in our case...

bb
 
crescent
Posts: 108
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2018 3:09 am

Re: LH closing SJC

Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:35 pm

No one doubts these (SJC PHX PDX) are marginal routes in the first place - they do not exist in a static environment- when oil prices or the economy change and stop cooperating, then these are the first to have a profit problem and get cut. Even though the US economy is fine for now, the European economy (from where LH no doubt gets tons of connecting demand) has decelerated almost to a recession and up oil prices are killing European carriers who will be under more pressure to stop subsidizing marginal routes near-term.

As for the comment about a later departure time, that just doesn't work for the FRA connecting banks. There is a reason most US eastbounders arrive in FRA around 11am. LH has a bank of flights that goes onto eastern Europe around 2pm. A 6pm departure from SJC to arrive in 2pm doesn't have as many flights leaving around 430pm in FRA for connections. For example, there are 1-2pm flights to LED, ATH, IST, CAI, SOF, KBP, ZAG but no flights around 4-5pm.

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