User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 15798
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:15 pm

United857 wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
Many people tend to focus on unit profit these days, and in the process forget that:
Total profit = unit profit x volume


In finance (yes I am a finance major), while total profit is looked at, another very important metric used is your profit margin. Large profits that are built on razor thin unit profits at high volume are extremely risky for investors because the low unit profit means that a very small change in market dynamics (seasonality, recession, etc.) will immediately put the airline into a loss-making position. What investors really care about is getting a balance between the two, enough volume/market share to generate large total profits, but at a safe profit margin so that changes in market dynamics do not immediately generate massive losses for the airline.

This is why I see more 779 and 787-10 in EK's future.

Profit margins in a good year in aviation are double digits. EK must also subsidize Dubai. I calculate more total profit per 779 flight than A388 flight...

As an enthusiast, I hope this order is recovered. But there is a reason other airlines haven't ordered enough A388s. Unless that dynamic changes (NEO and stretch), it is time to discuss options.

This must be done off cold hard numbers if Dubai is to thrive. A bad decision that puts EK into going forward loss isn't just a company and the employees, it is the viability of the city state.

So this decision is a big one. The EK c-suite must earn their pay.

Lightsaber
You only have the first amendment with the 2nd. If you're not going to offend someone with what you say, you don't have the 1st.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 19102
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:30 pm

lightsaber wrote:
This is why I see more 779 and 787-10 in EK's future.

Profit margins in a good year in aviation are double digits. EK must also subsidize Dubai. I calculate more total profit per 779 flight than A388 flight...

As an enthusiast, I hope this order is recovered. But there is a reason other airlines haven't ordered enough A388s. Unless that dynamic changes (NEO and stretch), it is time to discuss options.

And now A380 is captured in the vicious cycle of record low volume for its production run means higher production costs, whereas 787-10 is in the virtuous cycle of near record high volume (and soon to be increased) for a wide body means lower costs, and 779 is to be determined.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has it's beaches, it's homeland and thoughts of it's own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has it's seasons, it's evenings and songs of it's own
 
Waterbomber
Posts: 783
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 11:51 am

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:37 pm

ScottB wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
BA already has an intensive schedule with the B744 wnd would probably be able to do the hourly service with a very premium A380 instead of B744 and gain market share.
Replacing the B744 by B787-10 will result in a capacity reduction and a loss of market share.

Many people tend to focus on unit profit these days, and in the process forget that:
Total profit = unit profit x volume


BA doesn't really want or need to gain market share between NYC & LON because most of what's up for grabs (i.e. not tied down under corporate contracts) is low-yielding traffic in the back of the aircraft. They can't just replace the high-J 744 with premium A380s and maintain the schedule because the market for premium seats in that city-pair is still finite. Because the A380 is ~50% larger than the 744, they'd either need to put in another 150 or so Y seats or reduce schedule by 1/3, which would give them less of an advantage against DL/VS and UA.

Unit profit isn't as simple as you make it out to be in a market like air travel where the suppliers engage in heavy price discrimination and there is high risk of spoilage of product. One of the key reasons why the 77W and 779 (not to mention A359 and A35X) are so attractive against the A380 is that the unit costs are nearly the same, but rather than having to find 450 to 500 customers to fill the aircraft, you really only have to find the 300 to 400 of those who are willing to pay the highest fares -- and that's pretty much why you have a revenue management department. When you're using a smaller aircraft, the unit profit can be higher because you don't need the trash fares sold at near break-even or a loss to fill the seats. If BA has to sell a $399 JFK-LHR round-trip in the low season to fill empty seats in the back of the A380, they're probably better-off operating something smaller.

So in the case of the smaller plane, you may end up with higher profit because the unit profit is sufficiently high to make up for the lower volume.


Your argument is not rational.

If you look at the other players on the LON-NYC market, there is more for grabs than "low-yielding traffic at the back of the aircraft".
DL/VS have 8 daily service with A330/A340 and UA 5 daily with B767.
BA could easily take premium traffic away from any of these flights and gain market share. For instance, they could easily push UA out of the market and take over a large chunk of their corporates.
11 daily with A380 vs 5 daily B767, and BA would have UA for breakfast and DL would struggle too.

Now lets suppose that BA downgrade their B744's to B787-10's, what do you suppose will happen?
UA is going to upgrade to B777's and increase frequencies, DL/VS will increase frequenciea and start eating BA's lunch.

And sorry but 6-7 hours hops are not what the B777X will do best. Plus the B777X is not cheap to acquire and whatever marginal fuel and maintenance cost saving vs. the B744 will disappear in capital cost.
 
Waterbomber
Posts: 783
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 11:51 am

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:00 pm

lightsaber wrote:
United857 wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
Many people tend to focus on unit profit these days, and in the process forget that:
Total profit = unit profit x volume


In finance (yes I am a finance major), while total profit is looked at, another very important metric used is your profit margin. Large profits that are built on razor thin unit profits at high volume are extremely risky for investors because the low unit profit means that a very small change in market dynamics (seasonality, recession, etc.) will immediately put the airline into a loss-making position. What investors really care about is getting a balance between the two, enough volume/market share to generate large total profits, but at a safe profit margin so that changes in market dynamics do not immediately generate massive losses for the airline.

This is why I see more 779 and 787-10 in EK's future.

Profit margins in a good year in aviation are double digits. EK must also subsidize Dubai. I calculate more total profit per 779 flight than A388 flight...

As an enthusiast, I hope this order is recovered. But there is a reason other airlines haven't ordered enough A388s. Unless that dynamic changes (NEO and stretch), it is time to discuss options.

This must be done off cold hard numbers if Dubai is to thrive. A bad decision that puts EK into going forward loss isn't just a company and the employees, it is the viability of the city state.

So this decision is a big one. The EK c-suite must earn their pay.

Lightsaber


EK's real issue is not unit cost but overhead costs.
The A380 gives them the critical mass that enables them to spread out the overhead. Although their paper profits may be achieved through subsidies, they're viable and thriving thanks to the critical mass.

If we'd leave it up to airliners.net, everybody should be replacing A380's by A321neo's. If so, why not go all the way, forget about the B787-10 and let BA operate half-hourly A321neo service on LHR-JFK/LGW-JFK?
If schedule was really everything, that would be the way to go.
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5167
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:52 pm

neutrino wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
Me. As an avid Boeing fanboy I seek out 777s. And since I am likely to be flying to the Philippines at least once a year for the foreseeable future I expect to fly on a lot of them.

I like the 777 too. Yes, a little louder than others but I like. My most recent flights on the T7 were on SQ to and from Manila in February.
Is that your baby in your avatar? Cute. How young? He or she?

Yes, it is my baby. She is now 2-1/2; I think she was about 1 in that picture.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
ScottB
Posts: 6278
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:36 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
If you look at the other players on the LON-NYC market, there is more for grabs than "low-yielding traffic at the back of the aircraft".
DL/VS have 8 daily service with A330/A340 and UA 5 daily with B767.
BA could easily take premium traffic away from any of these flights and gain market share. For instance, they could easily push UA out of the market and take over a large chunk of their corporates.
11 daily with A380 vs 5 daily B767, and BA would have UA for breakfast and DL would struggle too.


That's simply not true. Much of the premium DL/VS traffic is being driven by NYC and LON corporate contracts, so simply throwing A380s into the market isn't going to draw that traffic away when a company's NYC-based passengers also need non-stops to SEA, IAH, DEN, BNA, AUS, FLL, FRA, FCO, AMS, etc. By the same token, BA isn't going to take much, if any, of UA's passengers since very few high-value customers on the NJ side are going to make the time-consuming and aggravating drive to JFK just to get an A380. And I really doubt BA wants to start a price war for premium cabin travel as they'd have the most to lose from it. Top-tier flyers on DL and UA aren't going to switch to BA for the A380, especially given that the newer J product on both is easily equal to BA or better.

Waterbomber wrote:
Profit margin relative to revenues is pretty irrelevant in an industry where half or more of the revenues disappear under several major cost centers: fuel cost, capital cost, airport fees.
Also, I doubt that airline managements care about stock market desirability. All they care about is to have a reason to pay themselves a good fat bonus.


And what drives bonuses for most airline managers are things like stock performance, operating margin, and return on invested capital. Chasing market share and low-margin flying improves none of these.
 
EChid
Posts: 323
Joined: Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:00 am

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:11 am

neutrino wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
Me. As an avid Boeing fanboy I seek out 777s. And since I am likely to be flying to the Philippines at least once a year for the foreseeable future I expect to fly on a lot of them.

I like the 777 too. Yes, a little louder than others but I like. My most recent flights on the T7 were on SQ to and from Manila in February.
Is that your baby in your avatar? Cute. How young? He or she?


I mean, the 777 is a great plane but it is the worst of the widebodies for Y pax. 10 abreast means the tightest seats, and the difference in humidity and noise is noticeable on long hauls compared to the 787/A380/A350. Even the 787 has preferable economy comfort. And even the old A330 has a leg up because you can get 2-4-2 seating, making it easier to get up. Other than a 767, it's the plane I least celebrate getting on for a mid to long haul.

Anyway, back to the topic at hand...
2018: DRW-PER-HKG-ICN-MEL-AVV-BNE-OOL-SYD-YYZ-YYZ-YUL-YVR-PDX-SEA-SFO-PEK-KIX-CDG-IST-NRT-HND-BKK-FAT; AC J-TK J-OZ F-DL F-TG J/F-NH J/F-CX J-VA J
 
xwb777
Posts: 249
Joined: Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:13 pm

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Thu Nov 01, 2018 10:29 pm

Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batch of A380s will be powered by the Rolls Royce Trent 900s.

Source: https://www.airlineratings.com/news/emi ... tim-clark/
 
LewisNEO
Posts: 177
Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:08 pm

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Thu Nov 01, 2018 10:54 pm

xwb777 wrote:
Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batch of A380s will be powered by the Rolls Royce Trent 900s.

Source: https://www.airlineratings.com/news/emi ... tim-clark/


That is great news, but when you read the article, he mentions also his views on the engine manufacturers and states the rising fuel costs are weighing more and more in. (I mentioned this in another thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1407019

Sir Tim Clark states later on in the article:
“Engine manufacturers were moving too quickly to try to meet specifications. When it came to innovation they did little and sat on their hands, they overpromised and what we see now is the result of that.”

He urges manufacturers to dopt the LEAP en GTF innovations into the wide body engines. At the same time he states they still have flaws but believes they will be worked out eventually. Maybe that is one of the things they aren't adopted by manufactures of widebody engines, besides those aren't the same manufacturers which produce the engines of the single aisles planes. I am no engineer but I guess there is much more to it than just copy and paste innovations to a larger widebody fan and engine.

Moreover he states he takes the frames, but their schedule slipped to later dates. I wonder if that's the real reason, given al his other arguments.
You are the wind beneath my wings.

Fokker 27, Bombardier Dash 8, Embraer 175 & 195, 727-200, 737-200 & -300 & -400 & -800, 747-400, 767-300, 767-400, DC 10-30, A320-200, A330-200, A330-300, A380.
 
User avatar
Erebus
Posts: 711
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 2:40 am

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Thu Nov 01, 2018 11:09 pm

LewisNEO wrote:
He urges manufacturers to dopt the LEAP en GTF innovations into the wide body engines. At the same time he states they still have flaws but believes they will be worked out eventually. Maybe that is one of the things they aren't adopted by manufactures of widebody engines, besides those aren't the same manufacturers which produce the engines of the single aisles planes. I am no engineer but I guess there is much more to it than just copy and paste innovations to a larger widebody fan and engine.


With regards to widebody engines, the GTF is not quite there yet but doesn't the GE9X use some technology derived from the LEAP?
 
User avatar
Channex757
Posts: 2064
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:07 am

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Thu Nov 01, 2018 11:17 pm

RR will use a sort-of GTF architecture for the Ultrafan engine. Not as straightforward as the Pratt gearbox, but a definite move away from the three shaft system that their large commercial engines have used so far.

Therein lies a story and several lawsuits between Pratt and Whitney and Rolls.

The Trent 900 is a fairly exhausted design now anyway. It is based on a Trent 500 core and that's how old...?
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 15798
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Thu Nov 01, 2018 11:57 pm

xwb777 wrote:
Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batch of A380s will be powered by the Rolls Royce Trent 900s.

Source: https://www.airlineratings.com/news/emi ... tim-clark/

Well done RR. Obviously you can Chuck my speculation...

Lightsaber
You only have the first amendment with the 2nd. If you're not going to offend someone with what you say, you don't have the 1st.
 
User avatar
Matt6461
Posts: 2835
Joined: Wed Oct 16, 2013 9:36 pm

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:16 am

lightsaber wrote:
xwb777 wrote:
Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batch of A380s will be powered by the Rolls Royce Trent 900s.

Source: https://www.airlineratings.com/news/emi ... tim-clark/

Well done RR. Obviously you can Chuck my speculation...

Lightsaber


It seemed logical, though, that EK could suffer some consequences if an arbitrator/court could reasonably conclude that EK was responsible for production-damaging delay.
Given Airbus' recent delivery compression - of which I was unaware - maybe EK was able to trade penalties for Airbus current delivery delays against future penalties for EK-induced delays.
Then maybe EK used that breathing room to try to play hardball with RR.
As I said upthread, though, I never thought EK had any credibility in a threat to walk away from the A380 so RR was probably able to just wait them out.

----

It's also interesting that Clark is now saying higher fuel prices killed his bottom line in the first half. In past years, he's blamed low fuel prices for headwinds.
What might have changed? Well EK is nearly alone now in flying no plastic twins; its fleet costs skew more heavily towards fuel than, say, EY and QR.
The last time fuel was $100+/bbl the A380 and 77W were the most fuel-efficient things flying in any meaningful numbers - dear fuel gave EK a competitive edge back then.
This dynamic is only going to get worse as 787/A350 become increasingly dominant and A380/77W fuel inefficiency puts EK further behind the market.
It won't be until the middle of the next decade that 777-9 deliveries begin to materially change that picture, though A380 will remain the dominant type by capacity.
I don't see a way for EK to maintain its scale besides heavy A380-reliance, but I also could see EK facing serious long-term, structural headwinds if fuel rises.
 
musman9853
Posts: 267
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:30 pm

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:30 am

xwb777 wrote:
Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batch of A380s will be powered by the Rolls Royce Trent 900s.

Source: https://www.airlineratings.com/news/emi ... tim-clark/



interesting, throws a lifeline back to the whalejet. still dont see a long term success for this plane though.

slightly off topic, they're still having tons of issues with pilots right? is it a good idea to continue accepting deliveries of new planes, when relatively new planes are stuck on the ground?
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 7758
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Fri Nov 02, 2018 2:19 am

[threeid][/threeid]
xwb777 wrote:
Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batch of A380s will be powered by the Rolls Royce Trent 900s.

Source: https://www.airlineratings.com/news/emi ... tim-clark/


That article speaks about 36 more frames, while the Airbus bookkeeping shows 20. 20 makes, together with the 142 earlier ordered frames, 162 A380 ordered by Emirates. 36 would bring that to 178. That is more than any other type that Emirates has ordered. AFAIK the 777-300 tops out at 156 ordered and the first ones are being retired while the last ones are being delivered.
So there are still 57 to 73 A380 to be delivered to Emirates.
 
moa999
Posts: 222
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Fri Nov 02, 2018 2:58 am

Fuel is only part of it though.

The initial 380/777s are effectively paid off/ lease expired (certainly I suspect you can re-lease A380s pretty cheaply given lack of alternative)
 
aaexecplat
Posts: 440
Joined: Tue Sep 29, 2009 2:49 pm

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Fri Nov 02, 2018 3:03 am

mjoelnir wrote:
[threeid][/threeid]
xwb777 wrote:
Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batch of A380s will be powered by the Rolls Royce Trent 900s.

Source: https://www.airlineratings.com/news/emi ... tim-clark/


That article speaks about 36 more frames, while the Airbus bookkeeping shows 20. 20 makes, together with the 142 earlier ordered frames, 162 A380 ordered by Emirates. 36 would bring that to 178. That is more than any other type that Emirates has ordered. AFAIK the 777-300 tops out at 156 ordered and the first ones are being retired while the last ones are being delivered.
So there are still 57 to 73 A380 to be delivered to Emirates.
It was 20 firm and 16 options?

Sent from my SM-T810 using Tapatalk
 
jagraham
Posts: 583
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Fri Nov 02, 2018 3:14 am

If a Trent 1000-TEN is fixed (the article does not state absolutes as is usually the case) and is in the same thrust class as a Trent 900, why not just certify the Trent 7000 on the A380 and be done with it?
 
JayBCNLON
Posts: 314
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2013 1:13 pm

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Fri Nov 02, 2018 3:18 am

So is the title going to be changed? It is now quite misleading. Or will the entire thread be locked ?
 
jagraham
Posts: 583
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Fri Nov 02, 2018 3:24 am

ScottB wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
If you look at the other players on the LON-NYC market, there is more for grabs than "low-yielding traffic at the back of the aircraft".
DL/VS have 8 daily service with A330/A340 and UA 5 daily with B767.
BA could easily take premium traffic away from any of these flights and gain market share. For instance, they could easily push UA out of the market and take over a large chunk of their corporates.
11 daily with A380 vs 5 daily B767, and BA would have UA for breakfast and DL would struggle too.


That's simply not true. Much of the premium DL/VS traffic is being driven by NYC and LON corporate contracts, so simply throwing A380s into the market isn't going to draw that traffic away when a company's NYC-based passengers also need non-stops to SEA, IAH, DEN, BNA, AUS, FLL, FRA, FCO, AMS, etc. By the same token, BA isn't going to take much, if any, of UA's passengers since very few high-value customers on the NJ side are going to make the time-consuming and aggravating drive to JFK just to get an A380. And I really doubt BA wants to start a price war for premium cabin travel as they'd have the most to lose from it. Top-tier flyers on DL and UA aren't going to switch to BA for the A380, especially given that the newer J product on both is easily equal to BA or better.

Waterbomber wrote:
Profit margin relative to revenues is pretty irrelevant in an industry where half or more of the revenues disappear under several major cost centers: fuel cost, capital cost, airport fees.
Also, I doubt that airline managements care about stock market desirability. All they care about is to have a reason to pay themselves a good fat bonus.


And what drives bonuses for most airline managers are things like stock performance, operating margin, and return on invested capital. Chasing market share and low-margin flying improves none of these.


An A380 loaded up with premium beyond the 90 to 100 seats in the most common configurations dramatically drives up CASM. Besides the corporate contracts issues, would BA really get that many more paying business class customers? Besides BA's LHR to JFK flights are split between 772s 77Ws, and 744s so they already have a lot of seats.
 
jagraham
Posts: 583
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Fri Nov 02, 2018 3:36 am

2175301 wrote:
Noshow wrote:
Very short international business trips are a reality for many people. Like those 24 hours at your destination mentioned. Nobody has the time to stay longer than necessary for a presentation, event, congress or similar.


I would concur with you on this. As such, these people focus on schedule more than people with longer trips.

I have never done an international business trip (outside of Canada from the USA). However, the first thing I look for is what schedules work well (or best). While I tend to use Southwest more often than others, I will instantly book on the other airlines if they have a better schedule. Which airline, which aircraft, is not a concern. I do book premium economy or business if I can. For long flights I try for business if available (I do not book lowest cost; but, will not just pay highest either).

My wife periodically fly's to Europe as she is from Ukraine - and again we look at schedule for when she leaves and would get home. Most of her flights are on 777's from/to Chicago across the Atlantic (I believe she has done 747 & 767 as well, and has routed through Atlanta and other east coast USA cities from time to time).

I did look at one international business trip last year - where I likely would have ended up on a A380 between Los Angeles to the Middle East as the main leg; but, the trip never happened.

I tend to find that most other business travelers do the same. Choosing an A380 would be towards the end of higher priority things such as schedule if we have that choice.

I cannot imaging many business people substantially sacrificing schedule just to fly an A380 or any specific aircraft, or insist on flying though a specific hub.

I cannot imaging many business people in other countries having a different priortiy on schedule vs aircraft/hub either. Time saved and schedule is Important.

Thus, the A380 does not command loyalty... not at the number that exist; except perhaps between a few hubs in the world. That has been the A380 problem all along. It only makes sense between a limited number of hubs. Please note that is not a new position of mine - it is an argument that I made when I joined A-net. That the business case did not add up and was based more on ego and fantasy. Back then I think I was one of only 2 or 3 people who withstood the intense criticism of the majority here at the time with that position... How things have changed and my original predictions have all proven out. The A380 is a niche aircraft and only suitable between a limited number of hubs. Few now doubt that.

I do not see a bright future for the A380. That does not mean that certain airlines may not be able to operate it on specific routes for a couple more decades successfully.

Have a great day,


I would say that the natural growth of air travel favors A380 sized aircraft - if they can last that long. The A380 is probably before its time.
 
juliuswong
Posts: 1102
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:22 am

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Fri Nov 02, 2018 4:17 am

mjoelnir wrote:
[threeid][/threeid]
xwb777 wrote:
Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batch of A380s will be powered by the Rolls Royce Trent 900s.

Source: https://www.airlineratings.com/news/emi ... tim-clark/


That article speaks about 36 more frames, while the Airbus bookkeeping shows 20. 20 makes, together with the 142 earlier ordered frames, 162 A380 ordered by Emirates. 36 would bring that to 178. That is more than any other type that Emirates has ordered. AFAIK the 777-300 tops out at 156 ordered and the first ones are being retired while the last ones are being delivered.
So there are still 57 to 73 A380 to be delivered to Emirates.

Correct! Currently Airbus O&D sheet is showing 105 have been delivered, balance 57.

The 20 order was firm order, 16 options to be confirmed at later date. This will bring the total firm order to 162 frames for now. If EK is to confirm the 16 frames, total will be 178 frames, not sure if they will operate all 178 frames at the same time.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... 0s-445801/

I have some problem grappling their B77W numbers though. Boeing O&D states they have 120 order: 113 delivered: 7 pending. However they are currently collectively operating 139 B77W (some are stored), wikipedia (not the best source I know) has 138 with 7 pending.
- Life is a journey, travel it well -
 
parapente
Posts: 2875
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:42 pm

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Fri Nov 02, 2018 6:26 am

Of the 178 aircraft we believe they will be taking,how many are replacements?Some ( but not all) were talked on 12 year leases if I remember correctly,particularly the earlier ones.That 12 year period must be coming up soon -2020? However the early delivery rate was quite slow back then as they were delivering to a lot of customers.
Perhaps they are finding more and more destinations can use them.I noted Hamburg joined the list last week.
One assumes that these aircraft will come with the new Premium class in the front /lower deck.
 
RB211trent
Posts: 91
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2017 11:35 am

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Fri Nov 02, 2018 7:19 am

Channex757 wrote:
RR will use a sort-of GTF architecture for the Ultrafan engine. Not as straightforward as the Pratt gearbox, but a definite move away from the three shaft system that their large commercial engines have used so far.

Therein lies a story and several lawsuits between Pratt and Whitney and Rolls.

The Trent 900 is a fairly exhausted design now anyway. It is based on a Trent 500 core and that's how old...?

It’s not based on a Trent 500 core at all. If you compare it to that you may as well compare it to T700 and 800s too.
 
xwb777
Posts: 249
Joined: Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:13 pm

Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

Fri Nov 02, 2018 7:29 am

As the news regarding the next batch of Emirates A380s engine option is now official, its time for a new thread.

Emirates CEO, Sir Tim Clark, has made it clear that the next batch of the ordered A380s will be powered using the RR Trent 900 engine.

Sir Tim Clark has also criticized how the engines manufacturers are giving promises and over promises and when the time comes to act, they stand still and do nothing.

Quote:

" Engine manufacturers were moving too quickly to try to meet specifications. When it came to innovation they did little and sat on their hands, they overpromised and what we see now is the result of that.”"


Source: https://www.airlineratings.com/news/emi ... tim-clark/
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 7758
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:06 am

parapente wrote:
Of the 178 aircraft we believe they will be taking,how many are replacements?Some ( but not all) were talked on 12 year leases if I remember correctly,particularly the earlier ones.That 12 year period must be coming up soon -2020? However the early delivery rate was quite slow back then as they were delivering to a lot of customers.
Perhaps they are finding more and more destinations can use them.I noted Hamburg joined the list last week.
One assumes that these aircraft will come with the new Premium class in the front /lower deck.


We do not know when the first A389 will be retired, the 12 years is still a guess But if A380 will be retired, the replacement will be newer A380. There are now 50 destinations where the A380 is used. Even if Emirates has more passenger 777, 150 frames, than A380, 105 frames, in use, more passengers are flown on the A380.
 
User avatar
LaunchDetected
Posts: 59
Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2012 4:42 pm

Re: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:21 am

The article states that Emirates ordered 36 A380, but 20 of them are firm orders and 16 are options, and all of these 36 are a MoU.

I hope they will sign the order just to put an end to all this intentional PR confusion.
Caravelle lover
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 7758
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:44 am

LaunchDetected wrote:
The article states that Emirates ordered 36 A380, but 20 of them are firm orders and 16 are options, and all of these 36 are a MoU.

I hope they will sign the order just to put an end to all this intentional PR confusion.


Something can either be a firm order or an MoU. The 20 are declared as firm, both by Airbus and Emirates, what was unclear was what engine would be ordered. That is now cleared up, RR engines it will be.
 
User avatar
LaunchDetected
Posts: 59
Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2012 4:42 pm

Re: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:49 am

mjoelnir wrote:
Something can either be a firm order or an MoU. The 20 are declared as firm, both by Airbus and Emirates, what was unclear was what engine would be ordered. That is now cleared up, RR engines it will be.


Don't want to derail a thread about the engines. But Airbus and Emirates both declared, in their articles (not in their headlines), that it was only a MoU.
https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/e ... 16-billion
https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... a380s.html
Caravelle lover
 
juliuswong
Posts: 1102
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:22 am

Re: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:08 am

Airbus has included the 20 in their O&D Sheets, bringing to a total of 162.

Total Order: 162
Delivered: 105
Pending: 57

https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/ ... eries.html
- Life is a journey, travel it well -
 
WPvsMW
Posts: 1289
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:30 pm

Re: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:08 am

"Many a slip between cup and lip". IIRC, a "firm order" under an MOU between operator and manufacturer (as opposed to governmental and non-profit MOUs) typically has multiple conditions precedent, which distinguishes it from a binding contract. Sounds to me like STC has a few conditions precedent... or perhaps the "firm orders" are in fact legally binding but with performance penalties. More likely, the former. Why would EK commit before tasting the pudding?
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 16151
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:18 am

WPvsMW wrote:
"Many a slip between cup and lip". IIRC, a "firm order" under an MOU between operator and manufacturer (as opposed to governmental and non-profit MOUs) typically has multiple conditions precedent, which distinguishes it from a binding contract. Sounds to me like STC has a few conditions precedent... or perhaps the "firm orders" are in fact legally binding but with performance penalties. More likely, the former. Why would EK commit before tasting the pudding?


Regardless, Airbus booked a firm order for 20 x A380 for Emirates on the 11th February 2018. So it clearly met the requirements for it to be booked.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
OMAAbound
Posts: 164
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2016 12:43 am

Re: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:37 am

It seems a bit of a captive market for the RR engines, lets say, STC announced that they didn't want the RR motors, then what? Nobody else in current form, manufactures an engine for the A380...

Or perhaps STC was thinking that with all the parked 777's, they could bolt a few GE90's onto those A380 wings!

OMAA
Right hand seat of a 787. Also can be found eating sandwiches, drinking coffee and attempting to understand Chinese ATC!
 
User avatar
LaunchDetected
Posts: 59
Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2012 4:42 pm

Re: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:43 am

OMAAbound wrote:
It seems a bit of a captive market for the RR engines, lets say, STC announced that they didn't want the RR motors, then what? Nobody else in current form, manufactures an engine for the A380...

Or perhaps STC was thinking that with all the parked 777's, they could bolt a few GE90's onto those A380 wings!

OMAA


Engine Alliance GP7270?
Caravelle lover
 
OMAAbound
Posts: 164
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2016 12:43 am

Re: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:49 am

LaunchDetected wrote:
OMAAbound wrote:
It seems a bit of a captive market for the RR engines, lets say, STC announced that they didn't want the RR motors, then what? Nobody else in current form, manufactures an engine for the A380...

Or perhaps STC was thinking that with all the parked 777's, they could bolt a few GE90's onto those A380 wings!

OMAA


Engine Alliance GP7270?


I believe they lost interest in the programme and stopped making them, hence why EK now have RR powered A380's

OMAA
Right hand seat of a 787. Also can be found eating sandwiches, drinking coffee and attempting to understand Chinese ATC!
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 7758
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:05 am

OMAAbound wrote:
LaunchDetected wrote:
OMAAbound wrote:
It seems a bit of a captive market for the RR engines, lets say, STC announced that they didn't want the RR motors, then what? Nobody else in current form, manufactures an engine for the A380...

Or perhaps STC was thinking that with all the parked 777's, they could bolt a few GE90's onto those A380 wings!

OMAA


Engine Alliance GP7270?


I believe they lost interest in the programme and stopped making them, hence why EK now have RR powered A380's

OMAA


Engine Alliance seems to have offered the unchanged GP7270. No PIPs. I assume the piped T900 seems to have won out, even if Emirates seems not to have been completely satisfied with them on the birds they already received.
 
User avatar
PM
Posts: 4962
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 5:05 pm

Re: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:05 am

OMAAbound wrote:

I believe they lost interest in the programme and stopped making them, hence why EK now have RR powered A380's

OMAA


I believe they lost interest and stopped making them because RR won that order.
 
smartplane
Posts: 273
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:06 am

LaunchDetected wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Something can either be a firm order or an MoU. The 20 are declared as firm, both by Airbus and Emirates, what was unclear was what engine would be ordered. That is now cleared up, RR engines it will be.


Don't want to derail a thread about the engines. But Airbus and Emirates both declared, in their articles (not in their headlines), that it was only a MoU.
https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/e ... 16-billion
https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... a380s.html

You quotes are ancient, now overtaken by the engine announcements.

Reason for MOU, is the orders were conditional on engines, finance, and a few other matters.

The 20 are now close to unconditional. The 16 have a milestone somewhere in 2019/2020 where they will either go unconditional, be deferred or cancelled.
 
User avatar
PM
Posts: 4962
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 5:05 pm

Re: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:09 am

Implications for the EK 787-10 order?
 
juliuswong
Posts: 1102
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:22 am

Re: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:13 am

If the other 16 are firmed out, EK will have 88 RR powered Vs. 90 EA powered. However I don't think they will operate all 178 at the same time.
- Life is a journey, travel it well -
 
juliuswong
Posts: 1102
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:22 am

Re: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:13 am

If the other 16 are firmed out, EK will have 88 RR powered Vs. 90 EA powered. However I don't think they will operate all 178 at the same time.
- Life is a journey, travel it well -
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 2287
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

Re: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:21 am

juliuswong wrote:
If the other 16 are firmed out, EK will have 88 RR powered Vs. 90 EA powered. However I don't think they will operate all 178 at the same time.

Who is starting the petition for this flypast?
Image
 
Noshow
Posts: 641
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:28 am

So the A380 is still on go. That's the important news.
 
smartplane
Posts: 273
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:40 am

No mention of RR v EA competition, so EK had Hobson's Choice.

So the million dollar question. Did RR stand firm, and offer nothing to EK by way of additional concessions or promises? So no future A380 engine PiP's or re-engine? And no interlinked deal with the 787 purchase?

EK comments regarding engine OEM performance isn't good news for either GE or RR. For instance, it suggests the EK 777X order will go unconditional at the last possible moment, when reliable data is available, supported by firm performance guarantees. And other customers will take their lead from EK.

The 787 engine decision can be delayed until late 2020.

Best option for Airbus is to improve the capability and availability of the A350 and A330NEO, in case there are any 787 / 777 issues, or if EK wants 787-sized aircraft sooner.
 
smartplane
Posts: 273
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:57 am

PM wrote:
Implications for the EK 787-10 order?

Did RR stand firm, and offer nothing to EK by way of additional concessions or promises? So no future A380 engine PiP's or re-engine? And no interlinked deal with the 787 purchase?

EK comments regarding engine OEM performance isn't good news for either GE or RR. Suggests the EK 777X order will go unconditional at the last possible moment, when reliable data is available, supported by firm performance guarantees. And other customers will take their lead from EK.

EK 787 engine decision can be delayed until late 2020, by which time Boeing and Airbus may have acquired GE and RR respectively.

Financiers, airline customers and air frame OEM's are dissatisfied with current engine OEM performance. A & B believe their project management skills are superior. The perfect storm to persuade regulatory authorities acquisition will ensure the required investment to make quantum improvements to fuel efficiency and emissions.
 
User avatar
frigatebird
Posts: 1498
Joined: Thu Jun 05, 2008 7:02 pm

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Fri Nov 02, 2018 11:06 am

xwb777 wrote:
Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batch of A380s will be powered by the Rolls Royce Trent 900s.

Source: https://www.airlineratings.com/news/emi ... tim-clark/


Glad this has been settled now, and indeed within the timeframe mentioned by STC earlier (end of October the decision).
STC mentions in the article he would like to have this year's A380 deliveries sooner: "Unfortunately, quite a few of the A380 deliveries have slipped and they are all compressed in the back end of the year in the next two months, so we are taking them now.”

Thought Airbus slowed deliveries on EK's request, but STC says differently. Strange.

aaexecplat wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
[threeid][/threeid]
xwb777 wrote:
Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batch of A380s will be powered by the Rolls Royce Trent 900s.

Source: https://www.airlineratings.com/news/emi ... tim-clark/


That article speaks about 36 more frames, while the Airbus bookkeeping shows 20. 20 makes, together with the 142 earlier ordered frames, 162 A380 ordered by Emirates. 36 would bring that to 178. That is more than any other type that Emirates has ordered. AFAIK the 777-300 tops out at 156 ordered and the first ones are being retired while the last ones are being delivered.
So there are still 57 to 73 A380 to be delivered to Emirates.
It was 20 firm and 16 options?

Yes, and if/when the 16 options become firm orders these will be RR-powered too. That's 144 more T900s for RR!

Erebus wrote:
LewisNEO wrote:
He urges manufacturers to dopt the LEAP en GTF innovations into the wide body engines. At the same time he states they still have flaws but believes they will be worked out eventually. Maybe that is one of the things they aren't adopted by manufactures of widebody engines, besides those aren't the same manufacturers which produce the engines of the single aisles planes. I am no engineer but I guess there is much more to it than just copy and paste innovations to a larger widebody fan and engine.


With regards to widebody engines, the GTF is not quite there yet but doesn't the GE9X use some technology derived from the LEAP?

Yes, more ceramics are applied.

jagraham wrote:
If a Trent 1000-TEN is fixed (the article does not state absolutes as is usually the case) and is in the same thrust class as a Trent 900, why not just certify the Trent 7000 on the A380 and be done with it?


It still will cost a lot of money, and the return on investment is currently not there. Airbus will need a lot of commitments from other airlines too, to increase production to a profit making level again. SQ would be very interested, but BA and LH amongst others are not ready to replace their current fleets with A380neo's yet.

smartplane wrote:
The 787 engine decision can be delayed until late 2020.


It can, but now that EK and RR have reached an agreement on the A380 I expect the 787 order to be firmed soon too - before the end of this year.
146,318/19/20/21, AB6,332,333,343,345,388, 722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9, 742,74E,744,752,762,763, 772,77E,773,77W, AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E75/90,F50/70
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 6275
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

Fri Nov 02, 2018 11:11 am

It is possible STC come to terms that 970B is the best choice.. EK doesn't need 972B and RR has no incentive to improve 972B.
 
TropicalSky
Posts: 153
Joined: Fri May 05, 2017 1:37 pm

Re: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

Fri Nov 02, 2018 11:17 am

If any of the engine OEM's are acquired by A/B that would be huge......it would definitely mean every project moving forward would have exclusive GE/RR motors beneath their wings without options for a second.....if this happens PW would be done

smartplane wrote:
PM wrote:
Implications for the EK 787-10 order?

Did RR stand firm, and offer nothing to EK by way of additional concessions or promises? So no future A380 engine PiP's or re-engine? And no interlinked deal with the 787 purchase?

EK comments regarding engine OEM performance isn't good news for either GE or RR. Suggests the EK 777X order will go unconditional at the last possible moment, when reliable data is available, supported by firm performance guarantees. And other customers will take their lead from EK.

EK 787 engine decision can be delayed until late 2020, by which time Boeing and Airbus may have acquired GE and RR respectively.

Financiers, airline customers and air frame OEM's are dissatisfied with current engine OEM performance. A & B believe their project management skills are superior. The perfect storm to persuade regulatory authorities acquisition will ensure the required investment to make quantum improvements to fuel efficiency and emissions.
 
User avatar
Channex757
Posts: 2064
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:07 am

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Fri Nov 02, 2018 11:17 am

RB211trent wrote:
Channex757 wrote:
RR will use a sort-of GTF architecture for the Ultrafan engine. Not as straightforward as the Pratt gearbox, but a definite move away from the three shaft system that their large commercial engines have used so far.

Therein lies a story and several lawsuits between Pratt and Whitney and Rolls.

The Trent 900 is a fairly exhausted design now anyway. It is based on a Trent 500 core and that's how old...?

It’s not based on a Trent 500 core at all. If you compare it to that you may as well compare it to T700 and 800s too.

"It is also the first member of the Trent family to feature a contra-rotating HP spool and uses the core of the very reliable Trent 500."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolls-Roy ... (Trent_900)

RR used the Trent 500 core with a larger fan section, upping the thrust. It was an interesting story at the time as both sides used repurposed designs; the Engine Alliance motor using the lower thrust variant of the GE90 and the fan from the PW4000 series as donors.
Last edited by Channex757 on Fri Nov 02, 2018 11:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 11910
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

Fri Nov 02, 2018 11:20 am

Another Bloomberg Airbus A380 Doom & Gloom article debunked.

Not? Judge yourself: https://www.google.nl/search?q=bloomberg+A380&rlz=1C1GCEA_enNL772NL772&oq=bloomberg+A380&aqs=chrome..69i57j0j69i61l2j0.4560j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Great job Bloomberg !
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos