WaywardMemphian
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Hurricane Michael

Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:03 pm

Looks like it may Boo Foo ATL ops a bit for Delta.

Hitting with 150mph winds. Major, major storm for the US.
Last edited by atcsundevil on Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Edited spelling in title
 
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piedmontf284000
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:17 pm

I'm very surprisied that ATL is not taking more precautions and being more pro active. Outside of TLH and ECP, I think ATL is going to be the most effected by this hurricane. It's already on the verge of a Cat 5 and it is going to push well inland thru Georgia with some very serious winds that might still be hovering around 80 mph. Plus the added threat of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms that are usually associated with hurricanes and I would say this has all the makings of a very very destructive hurricane. Take cover ATL. Don't wait until it's too late.
 
joeblow10
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:36 pm

I'm supposed to be connecting thru ATL tomorrow - fairly ticked off that DL has not issued a waiver yet. They've kept adding and adding airports and have gotten as close as CSG, but they won't do ATL.

I'm not taking chances - I just rebooked on somebody else and will hope they either issue a waiver or my flight is cancelled for a refund. Thought they had gotten a little more proactive after the T-Storm meltdown a year and a half back, I guess not. Will be interesting to see how it goes over as this storm is way stronger than expected
 
joeblow10
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:39 pm

And just to add on, the wind speed probabilities just shifted more Northward (slight change in track but more so the much stronger than expected storm). Now ATL is much closer to having a big problem. Tough to see it not having a major impact - hope they act soon!

Image
 
evank516
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:40 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
I'm very surprisied that ATL is not taking more precautions and being more pro active. Outside of TLH and ECP, I think ATL is going to be the most effected by this hurricane. It's already on the verge of a Cat 5 and it is going to push well inland thru Georgia with some very serious winds that might still be hovering around 80 mph. Plus the added threat of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms that are usually associated with hurricanes and I would say this has all the makings of a very very destructive hurricane. Take cover ATL. Don't wait until it's too late.


ECP is probably going to be the worst hit by this. TLH probably will take a big hit too. PNS and VPS will be affected as well with VLD probably not looking good either.
 
flyguy84
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:12 pm

As typical of Deltas arrogance, on Twitter, they are advising people this will have no effect on their operations at ATL. We shall see...
SFO
 
Alias1024
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:47 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
I'm supposed to be connecting thru ATL tomorrow - fairly ticked off that DL has not issued a waiver yet. They've kept adding and adding airports and have gotten as close as CSG, but they won't do ATL.


Based on the forecast I’d be planning a close to full schedule tomorrow for ATL. Rain is supposed to be over except for a stray shower by 8 am. Winds gusting to 26 knots from the northwest is going to be a bumpy ride, but well within the capabilities of the aircraft and pilots.

ATL is just far enough north that as of now it looks like it won’t be more than a nuisance to operations tomorrow.
It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:13 pm

[*]
flyguy84 wrote:
As typical of Deltas arrogance, on Twitter, they are advising people this will have no effect on their operations at ATL. We shall see...


I'm sure the delta PR spin machine is about to get cranking. We’ll probably see some advertising such as this in the coming weeks.

Delta remains number 1 in on time and completion factor for 2018!*

*excluding Hurricane Michael and various IT outages.
Lighten up while you still can, don't even try to understand, just find a place to make your stand and take it easy
 
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TVNWZ
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:27 pm

Looking at the map, it probably won’t be that bad. Some delays probably, but the track is south enough where winds shouldn’t be a problem. Might change, but forecasts have been spot on so far. Their meteorologists are probably telling them this.
 
mikejepp
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:37 pm

What about CLT?
 
lavalampluva
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:44 pm

Probably a few diversions at ATL, but I don't believe it will be all that bad. They've known for a while about this one. But that aside I'm glad I live 1,000 inland.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
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litz
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:52 pm

Don't forget, ATL is also a thousand feet up in altitude, as well
 
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m0ssy
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:05 pm

litz wrote:
Don't forget, ATL is also a thousand feet up in altitude, as well


I don't know much about meteorology, how does elevation effect something like this? Thanks! :wave:
Follow me on Instagram! @eug_spotter :airplane:
 
DiamondFlyer
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:09 pm

evank516 wrote:
piedmontf284000 wrote:
I'm very surprisied that ATL is not taking more precautions and being more pro active. Outside of TLH and ECP, I think ATL is going to be the most effected by this hurricane. It's already on the verge of a Cat 5 and it is going to push well inland thru Georgia with some very serious winds that might still be hovering around 80 mph. Plus the added threat of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms that are usually associated with hurricanes and I would say this has all the makings of a very very destructive hurricane. Take cover ATL. Don't wait until it's too late.


ECP is probably going to be the worst hit by this. TLH probably will take a big hit too. PNS and VPS will be affected as well with VLD probably not looking good either.


And ABY...
From my cold, dead hands
 
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TWA302
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:18 pm

m0ssy wrote:
litz wrote:
Don't forget, ATL is also a thousand feet up in altitude, as well


I don't know much about meteorology, how does elevation effect something like this? Thanks! :wave:


Good question! My old guess is the decrease in temperature, although minimal can weaken the storm/winds faster as in moves inland.
 
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litz
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:19 pm

m0ssy wrote:
litz wrote:
Don't forget, ATL is also a thousand feet up in altitude, as well


I don't know much about meteorology, how does elevation effect something like this? Thanks! :wave:


The effects will be more pronounced across the piedmont region, and it'll help push the storm mass that way as well.

Bad news for albany, macon, and athens (and SC/NC as well), not so bad news if you're flying airplanes with widgets on the tail out of ATL.
 
CapitalAvGeek
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:38 pm

Both the National Weather Service 7 day forecast and the TAF for ATL show max sustained winds between 20-25 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH out of the northwest occurring tonight into early tomorrow morning. Airplanes can still land in these conditions, although a crosswind makes it harder. I think early tomorrow morning Delta will have some trouble landing due to strong crosswinds and thunderstorms but should be limited to the early morning (before 9 am). In my opinion, Delta is playing this right by not canceling flights. After all, Delta has about 25 meteorologists. They know what their doing.
 
wxtech
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:42 pm

KPAM 101720Z AUTO 07067G112KT M1/8SM R14/0600V1200FT +RA FG SQ M 25/25 A2723 RMK AO2 RAB1658 PRESFR SLP224 CHINO RWY32 $.....this ob has the lowest sea level pressure I could find. 922.4 millibars

KPAM 101712Z AUTO 06075G112KT 1/8SM R14/0800V1400FT +RA FG SQ M 25/25 A2741 RMK AO2 RAB1658 PRESFR SLP285 CHINO RWY32 $...this ob has the highest winds of 75 knots sustained gusting to 112 knots.
 
A388
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:47 pm

I'm traveling through Miami tommorrow, what effect will Miami get?

A388
 
axiom
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:53 pm

A388 wrote:
I'm traveling through Miami tommorrow, what effect will Miami get?

A388


MIA is fine. No disruptions from TPA south.
 
Alias1024
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:53 pm

A388 wrote:
I'm traveling through Miami tommorrow, what effect will Miami get?

A388

None

The storm will pass hundreds of miles north of Miami
It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
 
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Moose135
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:22 pm

mikejepp wrote:
What about CLT?

We should have heavy rain and winds on Thursday, but it's not expected to cause too much trouble. The worst of it should be between 10am and 3pm, maybe some flash flooding due to rain, but winds only 25-30mph. We get some delays, but it doesn't sound like a major impact.
KC-135 - Passing gas and taking names!
 
skymiler
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:06 pm

I am in TLH, in my office looking out on the storm. Max recorded wind speed that I have seen is 71 MPH

TLH airport is closed, but reopening tomorrow AM.

DL deadheaded the 2 inbound MD88's back to ATL last night. Ops will resume tomorrow.

Not a big deal here -- we were notified well in advance.

Frankly, I trust DL's weathermen (and NOAA) more than Jim Cantore. DL's dudes are for safety, the Weather Channel for media hype and selling advertising.

Wait and see ...
I love to fly, and it shows!
 
DDR
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:40 pm

Tornado warning in ATL right now.
 
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Narfish641
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:44 pm

I'm a bit skeptical. The storms path looks pretty shady, almost as it looks like it's turning north... Let's see what will happen. Also wishing and hoping the best for the panhandle of Flordia, it doesn't look too good down there unfortunately.
Flew on:
SWA 737 738
 
Chapmads
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:18 am

mikejepp wrote:
What about CLT?


Any updates on CLT? I’m supposed to fly in from PHX arriving tomorrow at 3:30p. The question is whether I should take red-eye (from N California) tonight, though a 6am arrival may be worse. Thoughts?
 
KarlB737
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:47 am

piedmontf284000 wrote:
I'm very surprisied that ATL is not taking more precautions and being more pro active.


I find this amazing!

Courtesy: Atlanta Business Chronicle

Atlanta Airport Will Continue Normal Operations, In Light Of Hurricane Michael

https://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/news/2018/10/10/atlanta-airport-will-continue-normal-operations-in.html
 
EvanWSFO
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:05 am

DL is gonna get the haters no matter what. Let's say they cancelled the majority of ATL flights for Thursday, and all they get is rain. The people would be whining that they weren't flying. I've been watching coverage throughout the say. I don't think I've heard Atlanta mentioned once.
 
tomaheath
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:19 am

Going to have some visitors here in New Hampshire.
http://www.fosters.com/news/20181010/f1 ... ne-michael
 
Atlwarrior
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:46 am

Simply amazing ATL operations was not hinder by all that heavy rain. Just wow!
 
LHUSA
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:00 am

I, too, am surprised that DL isn't offering waivers. UA offered them to ATL and a slew of other cities already yesterday. It could really bite them and their pax in the butt if the storm veers just slightly off course.
 
DeltaRules
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:08 am

I pulled up DL's late ATL-DAB flight on FlightAware and it appears the flight is operating right through the storm and its route goes not too far to the Northeast of the eye. The first 30 minutes or so could be something.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL2587
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:11 am

The Mad Dog laughs at hurricanes!

GF
 
MSPNWA
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:43 am

Not surprised that DL didn't offer waivers with ATL. They are very stingy on waivers. There's no excuse this time. Profits over customers once again.

skymiler wrote:
Frankly, I trust DL's weathermen (and NOAA) more than Jim Cantore. DL's dudes are for safety, the Weather Channel for media hype and selling advertising.


Oh how people forget the epic fail DL's weather team made 18 months ago....
 
Atlwarrior
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:19 am

Great job ATL! I didn’t see any significant delays on Flightware yesterday.
 
Atlwarrior
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:25 am

joeblow10 wrote:
I'm supposed to be connecting thru ATL tomorrow - fairly ticked off that DL has not issued a waiver yet. They've kept adding and adding airports and have gotten as close as CSG, but they won't do ATL.

I'm not taking chances - I just rebooked on somebody else and will hope they either issue a waiver or my flight is cancelled for a refund. Thought they had gotten a little more proactive after the T-Storm meltdown a year and a half back, I guess not. Will be interesting to see how it goes over as this storm is way stronger than expected


It called good management: Atlanta-based Delta is waiving all baggage fees including overweight and oversize fees and pet-in-cabin fees for flights to and from Panama City, Pensacola, Tallahassee and Fort Walton Beach, Fla.; and Mobile, Al. through Oct. 12. The airline also Tuesday expanded a waiver of change fees to more airports for passengers who have flights booked to airports in the path of Hurricane Michael.
 
Atlwarrior
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:28 am

EvanWSFO wrote:
DL is gonna get the haters no matter what. Let's say they cancelled the majority of ATL flights for Thursday, and all they get is rain. The people would be whining that they weren't flying. I've been watching coverage throughout the say. I don't think I've heard Atlanta mentioned once.


True! I was beginning to wonder if those who are complaining, if they even truly ,had a flight or just wanted to bad mouth ATL and Delta.
 
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TVNWZ
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Re: Hurricane Michael

Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:16 pm

Looks like things running pretty smoothly in ATL. Some late flights, but not many.

So, all that high dudgeon against DL is apparently baseless.
 
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william
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:31 pm

Atlwarrior wrote:
Simply amazing ATL operations was not hinder by all that heavy rain. Just wow!


Michael was never forcasted to impact ATL but skirt to the south being on the weak side of the storm.
 
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cranberrysaus
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:41 pm

william wrote:
Atlwarrior wrote:
Simply amazing ATL operations was not hinder by all that heavy rain. Just wow!


Michael was never forcasted to impact ATL but skirt to the south being on the weak side of the storm.


All we got on the north side of Atlanta was some heavy rain that we really needed.

Reading this thread though you would've thought that Michael was ready to flatten the city.
 
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litz
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:32 pm

wxtech wrote:
KPAM 101720Z AUTO 07067G112KT M1/8SM R14/0600V1200FT +RA FG SQ M 25/25 A2723 RMK AO2 RAB1658 PRESFR SLP224 CHINO RWY32 $.....this ob has the lowest sea level pressure I could find. 922.4 millibars

KPAM 101712Z AUTO 06075G112KT 1/8SM R14/0800V1400FT +RA FG SQ M 25/25 A2741 RMK AO2 RAB1658 PRESFR SLP285 CHINO RWY32 $...this ob has the highest winds of 75 knots sustained gusting to 112 knots.


It got down to 919 millibars, officially. That's actually a couple bars lower than Andrew.

Tyndale AFB measured 129mph sustained winds before the anemometer failed.
 
WaywardMemphian
Topic Author
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:55 pm

litz wrote:
wxtech wrote:
KPAM 101720Z AUTO 07067G112KT M1/8SM R14/0600V1200FT +RA FG SQ M 25/25 A2723 RMK AO2 RAB1658 PRESFR SLP224 CHINO RWY32 $.....this ob has the lowest sea level pressure I could find. 922.4 millibars

KPAM 101712Z AUTO 06075G112KT 1/8SM R14/0800V1400FT +RA FG SQ M 25/25 A2741 RMK AO2 RAB1658 PRESFR SLP285 CHINO RWY32 $...this ob has the highest winds of 75 knots sustained gusting to 112 knots.


It got down to 919 millibars, officially. That's actually a couple bars lower than Andrew.

Tyndale AFB measured 129mph sustained winds before the anemometer failed.



Have you seen photos of Tyndale. Oof.
 
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litz
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Re: Hurricane Michael

Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:31 pm

It's very reminiscent (the whole area, to be honest) of the damage Andrew left behind.

It's like someone took a butter knife and scraped the earth clean.
 
ltbewr
Posts: 13627
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Re: Hurricane Michael

Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:19 pm

There is a great drone video of Mexico Beach, FL, most homes closest to the beach wiped off their slabs, a lot of roofs blown off, a lot of 'toothpicks' left of wooden structures. Some newer structures a bit in from the shore survived, but overall, the town is pretty much gone.
 
Max Q
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Re: Hurricane Michael

Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:36 pm

Does anyone have information on damage to the Navy base ?
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.
 
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exFWAOONW
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Re: Hurricane Michael

Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:38 pm

Where are all the apologies for the histrionics about ATL up-thread? [crickets]
Is just me, or is flying not as much fun anymore?
 
wxtech
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:40 pm

litz wrote:
wxtech wrote:
KPAM 101720Z AUTO 07067G112KT M1/8SM R14/0600V1200FT +RA FG SQ M 25/25 A2723 RMK AO2 RAB1658 PRESFR SLP224 CHINO RWY32 $.....this ob has the lowest sea level pressure I could find. 922.4 millibars

KPAM 101712Z AUTO 06075G112KT 1/8SM R14/0800V1400FT +RA FG SQ M 25/25 A2741 RMK AO2 RAB1658 PRESFR SLP285 CHINO RWY32 $...this ob has the highest winds of 75 knots sustained gusting to 112 knots.


It got down to 919 millibars, officially. That's actually a couple bars lower than Andrew.

Tyndale AFB measured 129mph sustained winds before the anemometer failed.


Tyndale measured a gust to 129 mph....that is what the 112 knots in the body of the observation comes out to in mph. The Maximum sustained wind was 75 knots or 86 mph. The definition of sustained wind is the 2 minute average while a gust is the peak wind that occurred in the last 10 minutes and has a margin of 10 knots or more between peaks and lulls. Do you know what site or who measured the 919 millibars or was it an "estimate"?
 
slcguy
Posts: 256
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:01 am

[Tyndale measured a gust to 129 mph....that is what the 112 knots in the body of the observation comes out to in mph. The Maximum sustained wind was 75 knots or 86 mph. The definition of sustained wind is the 2 minute average while a gust is the peak wind that occurred in the last 10 minutes and has a margin of 10 knots or more between peaks and lulls. Do you know what site or who measured the 919 millibars or was it an "estimate"?[/quote]

The 919 millibars was reported by the National Hurricane Center and was probably measured by a hurricane hunter aircraft.
 
Atlwarrior
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Re: Hurricane Micheal

Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:43 am

cranberrysaus wrote:
william wrote:
Atlwarrior wrote:
Simply amazing ATL operations was not hinder by all that heavy rain. Just wow!


Michael was never forcasted to impact ATL but skirt to the south being on the weak side of the storm.


All we got on the north side of Atlanta was some heavy rain that we really needed.

Reading this thread though you would've thought that Michael was ready to flatten the city.


Exactly! Funny how Charlotte American hub had lots of cancellations today, but crickets are on the thread now.

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