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MrHMSH
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Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:59 am

So SQ is today re-launching nonstop flights to EWR with the A350-900ULR, with LAX to follow and SFO to be 'added' to the ULR network, and PR will launch JFK nonstop with their A359s this month as well. I'm glad to see that more nonstops are being launched, but is there any (updated) information on the prospects of any SE Asian carriers launching flights, or a US/Canadian carrier? VN are meant to be launching nonstops but I've not heard an update for a long time.

Do we think there's the demand/profit potential for more flights? With A350s and 787s on property the aircraft that are most able to make these flights viable seem to be in place.

 
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FA9295
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:14 am

So glad to see SIN-EWR start up again! Such a great opportunity with the A359-ULR.

As for possible future Southeast Asia to North America flights, here are the rumors that I've heard of off and on this site:
- VN looking into LAX and/or SFO
- PR looking into SEA
- Once TG has the right aircraft, nonstop to LAX and/or SFO
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:58 am

VN unfortunately still couldn't launch a nonstop to the USA even if it wanted to, due to its continued FAA Cat2 status. Not sure what their Canadian rights would be.

Nothing stopping TG from doing it today; they've got several different aircraft that could make the distance-- doubt they have any plan however, that could make money on it.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
believeinflight
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:12 am

LAX772LR wrote:
VN unfortunately still couldn't launch a nonstop to the USA even if it wanted to, due to its continued FAA Cat2 status. Not sure what their Canadian rights would be.

Nothing stopping TG from doing it today; they've got several different aircraft that could make the distance-- doubt they have any plan however, that could make money on it.


Same with MH, once they receive the A350
 
TheEuphorian
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:14 am

TG can potentially restart LAX and could potentially operate into SFO, SEA, YVR with the 787-9/A350-941
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:30 am

LAX772LR wrote:
VN unfortunately still couldn't launch a nonstop to the USA even if it wanted to, due to its continued FAA Cat2 status.

Nation's airports not airline
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
raylee67
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:27 pm

Philippines are geographically SE Asia, but MNL-US is basically about the same distance as TPE or HKG-US. PR has been flying to LAX and SFO (and now NYC) non-stop for years.

For MH, TG and GA, they probably would not have sufficient high-yield O&D traffic to make it successful. If they do fly to LAX or NYC non-stop, it would be for the prestige and they will literally pay for the prestige, until they can't afford it any more.

SIN is the only city in deep SE Asia to have large intercontinental business traffic that generates constant and large amount of high-yield last minute senior executive level business traffic with major cities in US. It would be profitable to fly to LAX, SFO and NYC non-stop. But even Singapore, anything beyond these 3 cities in US will be in doubt to generate sufficient revenue constantly to support non-stop flights, even with ultra-efficient planes like the 787 or A350.
319/20/21 332/33 342/43/45 359/51 388 707 717 732/36/3G/38/39 74R/42/43/44/4E/48 757 762/63 772/7L/73/7W 788/89 D10 M80 135/40/45 175/90 DH1/4 CRJ/R7 L10
AY LH OU SR BA FI
AA DL UA NW AC CP WS FL NK PD
CI NH SQ KA CX JL BR OZ TG KE CA CZ NZ JQ RS
 
Kno
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:46 pm

I’m surprised nobody has tried a nonstop from BKK. Thailand is an incredibly popular vacation destination from the US.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:53 pm

How many of those Americans headed to Thailand (and I have been among them) are willing to pay a premium for non-stops vs. connecting in NRT or ICN? The only plausible non-stops are LAX/SFO-BKK. Look at all the U.S. origins KE/DL can already do 1-stop xxx-ICN-BKK.
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:13 pm

Kno wrote:
I’m surprised nobody has tried a nonstop from BKK. Thailand is an incredibly popular vacation destination from the US.

Low yielding leisure traffic doesn't bring in the money.
 
BuildingMyBento
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:48 pm

Kno wrote:
I’m surprised nobody has tried a nonstop from BKK. Thailand is an incredibly popular vacation destination from the US.


TG had nonstops from JFK and LAX a number of years ago...I was on the LAX-BKK, think it was an A345 or 6. Premium economy, so not too terrible.
Still, the routes didn't exist for TG to make baht.
 
mfe777
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:00 pm

It would be nice to see Thai back in the US but as others have said, it's hard to make money on that traffic. If they did, I guess LAX and/or SFO would be their picks. Wouldn't it be an amazing pipe dream to see them RETURN to DFW? In the US, they used to serve SEA, LAX, JFK, and DFW.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:20 pm

raylee67 wrote:
Philippines are geographically SE Asia, but MNL-US is basically about the same distance as TPE or HKG-US. PR has been flying to LAX and SFO (and now NYC) non-stop for years.


Only to/from West Coast (LAX/SFO). JFK-MNL is 400nmi longer than JFK-HKG, and is longer than routes like SFO-SIN or even JFK-HAN (Using Great Circle Distance). But yes, MNL-LAX/SFO is only about 40nmi longer than HKG-LAX/SFO.

raylee67 wrote:
For MH, TG and GA, they probably would not have sufficient high-yield O&D traffic to make it successful. If they do fly to LAX or NYC non-stop, it would be for the prestige and they will literally pay for the prestige, until they can't afford it any more.


GA can't even make LHR work. Non-stop US is definitely in pipe dream only. Plus any premium pax in Indonesia is going to just fly SQ, especially now that it's a one-stop to SFO/LAX (Soon)/EWR. :scratchchin: :scratchchin: .

Kno wrote:
I’m surprised nobody has tried a nonstop from BKK. Thailand is an incredibly popular vacation destination from the US.


Between competitions with CX/HX/BR/CI/JL/NH/KE/OZ/CZ/CA/MU/3U/MF/HU/(Did I miss any other carriers? Ok, EK/QR/ET if you're on East Coast) and the fact that it's a long flight without the yield, why is it a huge surprise? SIN is basically the only airports in the region that have the yield for non-stop, or even one-stop fifth freedom (HKG-SIN was the last UA intra-Asia fifth freedom route, and only was dropped b/c UA can now fly to SIN non-stop, while DL still fly NRT-SIN), to/from US.
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
PSAatSAN4Ever
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:29 pm

raylee67 wrote:
Philippines are geographically SE Asia, but MNL-US is basically about the same distance as TPE or HKG-US. PR has been flying to LAX and SFO (and now NYC) non-stop for years.

For MH, TG and GA, they probably would not have sufficient high-yield O&D traffic to make it successful. If they do fly to LAX or NYC non-stop, it would be for the prestige and they will literally pay for the prestige, until they can't afford it any more.

SIN is the only city in deep SE Asia to have large intercontinental business traffic that generates constant and large amount of high-yield last minute senior executive level business traffic with major cities in US. It would be profitable to fly to LAX, SFO and NYC non-stop. But even Singapore, anything beyond these 3 cities in US will be in doubt to generate sufficient revenue constantly to support non-stop flights, even with ultra-efficient planes like the 787 or A350.


Agreed 1000%.

Most North America to East/Southeast Asia routes line up to overfly Japan and/or Korea. And even with the 787 and A350, places like Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City, Kuala Lumpur, and Jakarta simply don't have the non-stop demand so necessary for ULH flying. These markets are incredibly price-sensitive, and the Korean and Japanese carriers can efficiently cover this market.

I would love to see how many SAN-MNL passengers Japan Air Lines has snagged from PAL's LAX service - many of my Philippine students have flown this to MNL, and a few have transited through NRT from San Diego.
 
IAmGaroott
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:40 pm

Speaking of "Future", wasn't US Air supposed to start Vietnam service back in 2015? :scratchchin: :duck:
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yyztpa
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:17 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
raylee67 wrote:
Philippines are geographically SE Asia, but MNL-US is basically about the same distance as TPE or HKG-US. PR has been flying to LAX and SFO (and now NYC) non-stop for years.


Only to/from West Coast (LAX/SFO). JFK-MNL is 400nmi longer than JFK-HKG, and is longer than routes like SFO-SIN or even JFK-HAN (Using Great Circle Distance). But yes, MNL-LAX/SFO is only about 40nmi longer than HKG-LAX/SFO.


Philippines also fly MNL-YYZ non stop. Recall plan for JFK was to begin Oct 30 using A350.
 
flyingdoc787
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:37 am

There is a huge amount of traffic (O/D) between the Philippines and the USA/Canada. Hence, the multiple nonstops on PAL, and direct service from DL (via NRT) and UA (Via Guam).

As to the future of flights between the Philippines/S.E. Asia and the USA/Canada, here are my guesses:
1. PR to expand and include ORD, SJC, SAN, SEA from MNL.
2. PR to re-introduce CEB-USA (LAX?) NONSTOP, and perhaps bring back MNL-LAS.
3. Cebu Pacific to begin flights to HNL and the West Coast (Oakland, SJC, SAN).
4. PR and 5J to build up MNL as a hub for SEAsia/N. America traffic in terms of schedule banks, etc.
 
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Pellegrine
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:46 am

I selfishly want TG to resume JFK and MH to resume LAX and start JFK.
oh boy, here we go!!!
 
carlokiii
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Sat Oct 13, 2018 7:06 am

It’s interesting that as of October 2018, there are only eight (or nine*) non-stop ASEAN-NA routes: (direct one-stop flights excluded)

MNL-JFK (PR)
MNL-LAX (PR)
MNL-SFO (PR)
MNL-YVR (PR)
MNL-YYZ (PR)
SIN-EWR (SQ)
SIN-LAX (UA)
SIN-SFO (SQ)
*MNL-HNL (PR)

Aside from the additional SQ flight to LAX, I think that’s it in the next couple of years in terms of nonstops to North America. CEB-LAX might come back within this timeframe though.

Any new route in the mid future would surely be on direct one-stop flights for SQ and PR, and probably for TG. There are just too many East Asian airlines pulling the fares down to make another nonstop from South East Asia viable.
 
kavok
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:44 am

Alright, I have to ask it. I promise this is an honest question, and am not trying to sound like a certain poster. But is it possible DL would try DTW-MNL? And could the A350 even do it?

I ask because as we all know, it is just a matter of time (and HND slots) before the DL NRT hub (or what’s left of it) comes to an end. The two remaining DL onward flights are NRT-SIN/MNL. The fact they both remain indicates DL sees value and is making money on them still.

If DL wants to keep MNL as a destination after NRT ends, DTW is probably in the best geographic location to capture eastern US flyers on a DL route. No, there is not the OD from DTW, but there probably isn’t enough OD from any one place. And so for a MNL-EasternUSA flight to work for DL, they would definitely need that large cachement feed to collect OD from everywhere to funnel into one flight. And again, DTW does work well for this geographically.

So again, not trying to sound like a certain poster, but 1) mechanically could DTW-MNL work on a 350? And if so, 2) Could DL try it?
 
ewt340
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:08 pm

Let's be honest here. Los Angeles and San Francisco are the only 2 cities that have best possibility for airlines in Southeast Asia. Mainly because of their liberal approach on immigrations and advance economy. This created demands because of immigrants and economic advantages compared to other North American cities.

There are only few cities in Southeast Asia that could actually hold the demand for direct flights to North America.
Singapore, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh, Jakarta and Manila.

They already have direct flights from LAX/SFO to Manila. The next one gonna be from Singapore to both LAX/SFO DIRECTLY, SQ fly these routes through Seoul and Hong Kong, but it's gonna change soon.

Most possible one now is Vietnam Airlines to LAX or SFO. And a slim chance of Bangkok to LAX or SFO. Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur have troubled Airlines right now, both MH and GA are not in the best positions to do these flights.

So for now we could only count on SQ, PR, and VN for these flights to happen.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:19 pm

Why would any airline want to have a nonstop to Southeast Asia from the US when there is a bloodbath on fares between the US and airports in China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong with connections to Southeast Asia?
 
flyingdoc787
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:25 pm

I can see DL wanting to continue service to MNL after NRT closes as a hub. Their problem is the major protectionist attitude of a certain airline in the Philippines (ahem!) since said airline’s bread and butter are its MNL-USA flights.
If DL would open nonstop flights to MNL, I can see DTW as a possibility due to its strong feed from the East Coast and Midwest. Yes, it’s going to be mostly VFR traffic, but many Filipinos who have flown such routes are willing to pay extra for the added comfort of a nice bed (or extra space) on an overnight flight back home! And yes, instead of paying for their overloaded Balikbayan boxes, they’d rather spend that money on themselves and get the extra baggage allowance and have a good sleep. Of course, LAX would work without a doubt... IF they (DL) are allowed to do so! Now that would be truly a bloodbath in many ways!
The player that is often forgotten but has much potential is UA. They already are in MNL, albeit with 737 service to GUM (and Palau, I believe). Again, IF the other airline doesn’t block them, they can easily fill a 787 or 777 nonstop to SFO, LAX, and even ORD!
OTOH, it would be interesting to see if folks would be willing to endure the cramped seating of an LCC to save a few bucks...but then they’d have to pay for luggage and meals and soon they will realize they’re better off on a full service airline across the Pacific.
 
Swadian
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:28 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Why would any airline want to have a nonstop to Southeast Asia from the US when there is a bloodbath on fares between the US and airports in China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong with connections to Southeast Asia?


Finally an intelligent post. Only the Japanese and Korean carriers can compete because going to Japan or Korea via China involves backtracking. JAL could be more aggressive and improve connections through TYO.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:59 pm

[*]
Kno wrote:
I’m surprised nobody has tried a nonstop from BKK. Thailand is an incredibly popular vacation destination from the US.


High fuel prices killed BKK-JFK. Realistically, only SQ and QF have the high yield traffic to sustain such.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:05 pm

Pellegrine wrote:
I selfishly want TG to resume JFK and MH to resume LAX and start JFK.


SQ has found MAN to be a good transit stop for its SIN-MAN-IAH service. Perhaps this could be repeated if other south East Asian airlines wish to serve the USA?

With regards to TG, two of the largest unserved routes globally (measured by one stop passenger volume) are BKK-JFK and BKK-MAN. TG and MAN appear to be in dialogue about serving MAN, might this go one further and be a BKK-MAN-JFK-MAN-BKK routing?

A similar principle applies to MH, the difference being the smaller volume of passenger flows.
 
nomorerjs
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Sun Oct 14, 2018 3:19 am

flyingdoc787 wrote:
I can see DL wanting to continue service to MNL after NRT closes as a hub. Their problem is the major protectionist attitude of a certain airline in the Philippines (ahem!) since said airline’s bread and butter are its MNL-USA flights.
If DL would open nonstop flights to MNL, I can see DTW as a possibility due to its strong feed from the East Coast and Midwest. Yes, it’s going to be mostly VFR traffic, but many Filipinos who have flown such routes are willing to pay extra for the added comfort of a nice bed (or extra space) on an overnight flight back home! And yes, instead of paying for their overloaded Balikbayan boxes, they’d rather spend that money on themselves and get the extra baggage allowance and have a good sleep. Of course, LAX would work without a doubt... IF they (DL) are allowed to do so! Now that would be truly a bloodbath in many ways!
The player that is often forgotten but has much potential is UA. They already are in MNL, albeit with 737 service to GUM (and Palau, I believe). Again, IF the other airline doesn’t block them, they can easily fill a 787 or 777 nonstop to SFO, LAX, and even ORD!
OTOH, it would be interesting to see if folks would be willing to endure the cramped seating of an LCC to save a few bucks...but then they’d have to pay for luggage and meals and soon they will realize they’re better off on a full service airline across the Pacific.


They may fill ORD-MNL, but at what yields? ORD - SE Asia has been decimated by over-capacity and ridiculous low fares. The last thing ORD needs is a 90+% flight at negative yields.

Let SQ enter the market nonstop with service and yields, but I don’t see that happening.
 
nomorerjs
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Sun Oct 14, 2018 3:22 am

flyingdoc787 wrote:
I can see DL wanting to continue service to MNL after NRT closes as a hub. Their problem is the major protectionist attitude of a certain airline in the Philippines (ahem!) since said airline’s bread and butter are its MNL-USA flights.
If DL would open nonstop flights to MNL, I can see DTW as a possibility due to its strong feed from the East Coast and Midwest. Yes, it’s going to be mostly VFR traffic, but many Filipinos who have flown such routes are willing to pay extra for the added comfort of a nice bed (or extra space) on an overnight flight back home! And yes, instead of paying for their overloaded Balikbayan boxes, they’d rather spend that money on themselves and get the extra baggage allowance and have a good sleep. Of course, LAX would work without a doubt... IF they (DL) are allowed to do so! Now that would be truly a bloodbath in many ways!
The player that is often forgotten but has much potential is UA. They already are in MNL, albeit with 737 service to GUM (and Palau, I believe). Again, IF the other airline doesn’t block them, they can easily fill a 787 or 777 nonstop to SFO, LAX, and even ORD!
OTOH, it would be interesting to see if folks would be willing to endure the cramped seating of an LCC to save a few bucks...but then they’d have to pay for luggage and meals and soon they will realize they’re better off on a full service airline across the Pacific.


DTW-MNL would be toilet yields. If the US and Japan add HND flights, DL from DTW would only trail AA in DFW-HND as logical adds IMHOP. JL would take ORD and NH would get another route.
 
RainerBoeing777
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Sun Oct 14, 2018 3:23 am

Possibly after the JV between KE and DL. DL remove from Narita the MNL and SIN routes if they are not via ICN, they can be nonstop from SEA-MNL / SIN they have the Airbus A350 that can do both routes although SEA-MNL can be with the A330neo of 251T
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
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spinkid
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Sun Oct 14, 2018 5:53 am

BKK-LAX should be able to generate some premium with the Entertainment industries in both cities. It would be great, but for myself on the east coast, I will still have to make a stop before getting to BKK, so I could just as easily go JFK-NRT-BKK or a dozen other places besides NRT all priced competitively.

This is something to consider. I'm sure there is research on it somewhere, but for myself when I've traveled to SE Asia from NYC area I prefer to make a connection. Depending on the exact details it can be to nice break your flight up. stretch your legs, shower if available to you, maybe explore as much culture as you can considering you are in an airport. I did this in Taiwan. lol
 
ewt340
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:55 am

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Why would any airline want to have a nonstop to Southeast Asia from the US when there is a bloodbath on fares between the US and airports in China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong with connections to Southeast Asia?


Because they need to fill the seat with discounted ticket to break even in economy class. We all know they only make money on premium cabins. Many of these routes are for prestige OR to attract new customers for connecting flights to secondary cities in their home country or nearby international cities around the hub.

With TG being saved over and over again by Thai Government. They don't care if they lose money on it.
 
LUKAS10
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:28 am

The best thing TG can do is simply serving the North American market in cooperation with their *A partners via Northeast Asia. The same applies to MH. The yields are trash, hardly comparable to SIN.
PR can partially rely on the huge Filipino diaspora which is traditionally price-sensitive.
In the future, I would see SQ serving ORD, TG flying to MAN, MH growing in Asia/Pacific in terms of increasing the frequencies. It seems to be realistic to me.
 
luckyone
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:20 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Let's be honest here. Los Angeles and San Francisco are the only 2 cities that have best possibility for airlines in Southeast Asia. Mainly because of their liberal approach on immigrations and advance economy. This created demands because of immigrants and economic advantages compared to other North American cities.

The cities of Los Angeles and San Francisco (or the State of California for that matter) have no say over who is allowed to immigrate to the United States. That is decided entirely on a federal level, regardless of the state or city. If you’re referring to either of those municipalities’ positions as a “Sanctuary City,” that is a separate matter. And in my opinion irrelevant here because illegal immigrants are 1. Not going to have the funds to be traveling anywhere regularly, much less overseas and 2. Aren’t going to be making a great many voyages through international airports if they do leave, because immigration services will not clear them.

Your second point about advanced economies is correct—coupled with the fact that when Asian immigrants started arriving in the US they came by ship, and the West Coast was where they landed.
 
tphuang
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:22 pm

There won't be any US based on airlines flying NA to ASEAN countries. So no, DTW-MNL doesn't work. It's terrible idea.

Here is why JFK/LAX/SFO to BKK don't have direct flights. The Chinese airlines are pricing JFK to BKK R/T j at $2500 on most days. And it only adds a few more hours to the trip. In fact, that's what I would fly if I'm going NYC to BKK. So PE won't sell out because most people would fly one stop J at slightly higher fares. There is not enough corporate traffic to pay for the expensive non-stop J fares. Y fares are rock bottom due to the China competition. It's the same reason KUL and CGK don't work either. And there is much less demand imo from continental USA to Malaysia and Indonesia than Thailand.
 
EvanWSFO
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Sun Oct 14, 2018 9:25 pm

flyingdoc787 wrote:
There is a huge amount of traffic (O/D) between the Philippines and the USA/Canada. Hence, the multiple nonstops on PAL, and direct service from DL (via NRT) and UA (Via Guam).

As to the future of flights between the Philippines/S.E. Asia and the USA/Canada, here are my guesses:
1. PR to expand and include ORD, SJC, SAN, SEA from MNL.
2. PR to re-introduce CEB-USA (LAX?) NONSTOP, and perhaps bring back MNL-LAS.
3. Cebu Pacific to begin flights to HNL and the West Coast (Oakland, SJC, SAN).
4. PR and 5J to build up MNL as a hub for SEAsia/N. America traffic in terms of schedule banks, etc.


I can't see PR entering SJC. As time has passed, we've seen international services from SJC being pulled back or down. In peak season, PR has been 2x daily from SFO. SJC doesn't make sense. Same for SAN. Honestly, I don't see any of your guesses working.
I have been on this site 15 years. A unrecoverable email account led me to starting over. Those of you who call me a rookie, you may stop ok?
 
EvanWSFO
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Sun Oct 14, 2018 9:29 pm

carlokiii wrote:
It’s interesting that as of October 2018, there are only eight (or nine*) non-stop ASEAN-NA routes: (direct one-stop flights excluded)

MNL-JFK (PR)
MNL-LAX (PR)
MNL-SFO (PR)
MNL-YVR (PR)
MNL-YYZ (PR)
SIN-EWR (SQ)
SIN-LAX (UA)
SIN-SFO (SQ)
*MNL-HNL (PR)

Aside from the additional SQ flight to LAX, I think that’s it in the next couple of years in terms of nonstops to North America. CEB-LAX might come back within this timeframe though.

Any new route in the mid future would surely be on direct one-stop flights for SQ and PR, and probably for TG. There are just too many East Asian airlines pulling the fares down to make another nonstop from South East Asia viable.


You don't list them as flying to SFO at all in your above statement.. It's going double daily soon. https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... =Singapore
I have been on this site 15 years. A unrecoverable email account led me to starting over. Those of you who call me a rookie, you may stop ok?
 
J343
Posts: 249
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:27 pm

PR relies heavily on VFR traffic due to the large Filipino diaspora in the United States and Canada to a smaller scare. I am sure PR will be in the same position as TG, MH, VN and Garuda if it's not for the diaspora. PR operates 1x daily to SFO and LAX and increases it due to seasonal demands. I personally think that PR has a fair potential to make ORD work. PR and SQ are arguebly the big ASEAN carriers to N.America. Europe on the other hand, PR is a weak player.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:48 pm

tphuang wrote:
There won't be any US based on airlines flying NA to ASEAN countries. So no, DTW-MNL doesn't work. It's terrible idea.

Here is why JFK/LAX/SFO to BKK don't have direct flights. The Chinese airlines are pricing JFK to BKK R/T j at $2500 on most days. And it only adds a few more hours to the trip. In fact, that's what I would fly if I'm going NYC to BKK. So PE won't sell out because most people would fly one stop J at slightly higher fares. There is not enough corporate traffic to pay for the expensive non-stop J fares. Y fares are rock bottom due to the China competition. It's the same reason KUL and CGK don't work either. And there is much less demand imo from continental USA to Malaysia and Indonesia than Thailand.


The B788/9 as a lighter plane has really cheapened fares. This has also forced CZ to densify their planes to 10-abreast (MU's B77Ws came 10-abreast, but the A346s replaced by them already had similar Y seats). CZ is going to be in a bit of a bind here given that it's sending significantly heavier planes to North America while HU and MF are sending much lighter Dreamliners---361-seat B77Ws are going to be harder to fill than the 287-seat B789s subsidiary MF sends to LAX and JFK...and UA is flying mostly the Dreamliner to China. (MU flies mostly the B77W to North America, but they have a 316-seat configuration with 52 J seats, and Shanghai is the center of China's commerce, justifying the B77W, although it ordered 15 B789s directly from Boeing too, going to Shanghai Airlines.) These one-stop connections are why I see no way that anyone can justify a Southeast Asia to North America flight other than Singapore there, and why United only attempts Singapore in Southeast Asia...using a premium-heavy Dreamliner; you need to make money at the front of the plane to justify the flights. Other than to SIN (excluding Chinese destination), it's mostly VFR and tourism traffic - lower-yield.
 
Fastphilly
Posts: 361
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:16 pm

J343 wrote:
PR relies heavily on VFR traffic due to the large Filipino diaspora in the United States and Canada to a smaller scare. I am sure PR will be in the same position as TG, MH, VN and Garuda if it's not for the diaspora. PR operates 1x daily to SFO and LAX and increases it due to seasonal demands. I personally think that PR has a fair potential to make ORD work. PR and SQ are arguebly the big ASEAN carriers to N.America. Europe on the other hand, PR is a weak player.


MNL - Europe is weak whether it’s PR or a European carrier. With the exception of KLM that has a tech stop at BKK , European carriers pulled out of MNL years ago.
 
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spinkid
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:16 am

tphuang wrote:
There won't be any US based on airlines flying NA to ASEAN countries. So no, DTW-MNL doesn't work. It's terrible idea.

Here is why JFK/LAX/SFO to BKK don't have direct flights. The Chinese airlines are pricing JFK to BKK R/T j at $2500 on most days. And it only adds a few more hours to the trip. In fact, that's what I would fly if I'm going NYC to BKK. So PE won't sell out because most people would fly one stop J at slightly higher fares. There is not enough corporate traffic to pay for the expensive non-stop J fares. Y fares are rock bottom due to the China competition. It's the same reason KUL and CGK don't work either. And there is much less demand imo from continental USA to Malaysia and Indonesia than Thailand.


You have summed it up perfectly my friend! I have some time off coming up and have been browsing several SE Asia destinations as I usually hop around to a few cities anytime I go. Wherever I look in ASEAN I was finding prices like that in J, sometimes lower than $1400 in PE. For fares in those classes, even if there was a non stop, it would have be priced the same or less for me to choose it.

Also, in immigration patterns. The Philippines was once part of the United States. It had the same Political Status as Puerto Rico for about 50 years, hence almost not VFR or business to Europe. Philippines overall tends to get a bad rap as a tourist destination as well. Warnings about sporadic violence in the south seem to scare people off from the entire country. My friends who live there have been to beautiful resorts.

BKK still has the backpacker traveler pull that it has had for many years so there is plenty of demand there.

Additionally the VFR traffic to smaller places like Laos and Cambodia from the U.S. now sees 1 stop service through China. Until recently BKK was the only transit point.
 
zm093
Posts: 21
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:25 am

Any word on whether PR will be starting up flights from MNL to IAH via YVR in the near future?
 
lavalampluva
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:24 am

I can’t see there being nonstops to SE Asia outside of the West Coast and NYC.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:47 am

lavalampluva wrote:
I can’t see there being nonstops to SE Asia outside of the West Coast and NYC.


And what premium passengers are going to fly on them to justify a nonstop flight that verges on being a ULH flight. There are tons of connecting flights available from hubs that a nonstop would fly over.
 
tphuang
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:18 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
There won't be any US based on airlines flying NA to ASEAN countries. So no, DTW-MNL doesn't work. It's terrible idea.

Here is why JFK/LAX/SFO to BKK don't have direct flights. The Chinese airlines are pricing JFK to BKK R/T j at $2500 on most days. And it only adds a few more hours to the trip. In fact, that's what I would fly if I'm going NYC to BKK. So PE won't sell out because most people would fly one stop J at slightly higher fares. There is not enough corporate traffic to pay for the expensive non-stop J fares. Y fares are rock bottom due to the China competition. It's the same reason KUL and CGK don't work either. And there is much less demand imo from continental USA to Malaysia and Indonesia than Thailand.


The B788/9 as a lighter plane has really cheapened fares. This has also forced CZ to densify their planes to 10-abreast (MU's B77Ws came 10-abreast, but the A346s replaced by them already had similar Y seats). CZ is going to be in a bit of a bind here given that it's sending significantly heavier planes to North America while HU and MF are sending much lighter Dreamliners---361-seat B77Ws are going to be harder to fill than the 287-seat B789s subsidiary MF sends to LAX and JFK...and UA is flying mostly the Dreamliner to China. (MU flies mostly the B77W to North America, but they have a 316-seat configuration with 52 J seats, and Shanghai is the center of China's commerce, justifying the B77W, although it ordered 15 B789s directly from Boeing too, going to Shanghai Airlines.) These one-stop connections are why I see no way that anyone can justify a Southeast Asia to North America flight other than Singapore there, and why United only attempts Singapore in Southeast Asia...using a premium-heavy Dreamliner; you need to make money at the front of the plane to justify the flights. Other than to SIN (excluding Chinese destination), it's mostly VFR and tourism traffic - lower-yield.


This is quite interesting to think about. I was curious why MU was always the cheapest J fare on those one stop itinerary to ASEAN countries. I guess they are having a trouble filling all of those J seats. Good for me.
 
ewt340
Posts: 818
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Mon Oct 15, 2018 1:25 pm

luckyone wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Let's be honest here. Los Angeles and San Francisco are the only 2 cities that have best possibility for airlines in Southeast Asia. Mainly because of their liberal approach on immigrations and advance economy. This created demands because of immigrants and economic advantages compared to other North American cities.

The cities of Los Angeles and San Francisco (or the State of California for that matter) have no say over who is allowed to immigrate to the United States. That is decided entirely on a federal level, regardless of the state or city. If you’re referring to either of those municipalities’ positions as a “Sanctuary City,” that is a separate matter. And in my opinion irrelevant here because illegal immigrants are 1. Not going to have the funds to be traveling anywhere regularly, much less overseas and 2. Aren’t going to be making a great many voyages through international airports if they do leave, because immigration services will not clear them.

Your second point about advanced economies is correct—coupled with the fact that when Asian immigrants started arriving in the US they came by ship, and the West Coast was where they landed.


Uhmmm.... I'm not referring to immigration policy in the US. I'm just referring to the fact that Los Angeles and San Francisco are the 2 cities with one of the biggest Southeast Asian Diaspora. I never said that these 2 cities allowed in more foreign residence or immigrants. Hope this clear things up. I don't understand how illegal immigration comes into this conversation at all.

Los Angeles is also a touristy city. So the demand would be there anyway.
 
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TWA302
Posts: 577
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:00 pm

IAmGaroott wrote:
Speaking of "Future", wasn't US Air supposed to start Vietnam service back in 2015? :scratchchin: :duck:
Image



YES!!!!! HAHAHA!! Thanks for the laugh. Forgot about this.
 
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Devilfish
Posts: 6522
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:03 pm

FA9295 wrote:
- PR looking into SEA

zm093 wrote:
Any word on whether PR will be starting up flights from MNL to IAH via YVR in the near future?

J343 wrote:
I personally think that PR has a fair potential to make ORD work.

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
although SEA-MNL can be with the A330neo of 251T

carlokiii wrote:
CEB-LAX might come back within this timeframe though.

For PR, the 251T version of this might just be the ticket for some of these routes to happen..... :spin: .....

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amadorE175
Posts: 194
Joined: Tue Jul 18, 2017 10:25 pm

Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:53 pm

EvanWSFO wrote:
flyingdoc787 wrote:
There is a huge amount of traffic (O/D) between the Philippines and the USA/Canada. Hence, the multiple nonstops on PAL, and direct service from DL (via NRT) and UA (Via Guam).

As to the future of flights between the Philippines/S.E. Asia and the USA/Canada, here are my guesses:
1. PR to expand and include ORD, SJC, SAN, SEA from MNL.
2. PR to re-introduce CEB-USA (LAX?) NONSTOP, and perhaps bring back MNL-LAS.
3. Cebu Pacific to begin flights to HNL and the West Coast (Oakland, SJC, SAN).
4. PR and 5J to build up MNL as a hub for SEAsia/N. America traffic in terms of schedule banks, etc.


I can't see PR entering SJC. As time has passed, we've seen international services from SJC being pulled back or down. In peak season, PR has been 2x daily from SFO. SJC doesn't make sense. Same for SAN. Honestly, I don't see any of your guesses working.


SAN makes more sense than you're willing to give. PR thought enough of the route to apply to the DOT to fly MNL-YVR-SAN in 2008. A downgrade to CAT 2 put a halt to that plan but SAN has been on their radar. Since 2008, the international traffic has increased considerably from SAN and the same market PR was targeting before is still here so it's not completely bonkers that PR might be interested in SAN. I'm not saying MNL-SAN would start anytime soon since PR itself has said its looking at SEA and ORD but there's more merit to SAN than credited here.
 
Swadian
Posts: 539
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2016 4:56 am

Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:18 pm

tphuang wrote:
There won't be any US based on airlines flying NA to ASEAN countries. So no, DTW-MNL doesn't work. It's terrible idea.

Here is why JFK/LAX/SFO to BKK don't have direct flights. The Chinese airlines are pricing JFK to BKK R/T j at $2500 on most days. And it only adds a few more hours to the trip. In fact, that's what I would fly if I'm going NYC to BKK. So PE won't sell out because most people would fly one stop J at slightly higher fares. There is not enough corporate traffic to pay for the expensive non-stop J fares. Y fares are rock bottom due to the China competition. It's the same reason KUL and CGK don't work either. And there is much less demand imo from continental USA to Malaysia and Indonesia than Thailand.


There won't be? But UA is flying to SIN, and isn't that an ASEAN country? Also, DL flies there from TYO. Only AA lacks SIN, but they'd probably be better off expanding TYO again in conjunction with JL after the Olympics.
 
tphuang
Posts: 3229
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Re: Future of Southeast Asia to N. America flights

Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:25 pm

Swadian wrote:
tphuang wrote:
There won't be any US based on airlines flying NA to ASEAN countries. So no, DTW-MNL doesn't work. It's terrible idea.

Here is why JFK/LAX/SFO to BKK don't have direct flights. The Chinese airlines are pricing JFK to BKK R/T j at $2500 on most days. And it only adds a few more hours to the trip. In fact, that's what I would fly if I'm going NYC to BKK. So PE won't sell out because most people would fly one stop J at slightly higher fares. There is not enough corporate traffic to pay for the expensive non-stop J fares. Y fares are rock bottom due to the China competition. It's the same reason KUL and CGK don't work either. And there is much less demand imo from continental USA to Malaysia and Indonesia than Thailand.


There won't be? But UA is flying to SIN, and isn't that an ASEAN country? Also, DL flies there from TYO. Only AA lacks SIN, but they'd probably be better off expanding TYO again in conjunction with JL after the Olympics.


the first sentence was a little off. I should've excluded SIN from that listed. Aside from that, DL doesn't fly direct from mainland USA to SIN, and I don't see that ever changing. AA won't happen either.

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