ORF Route Development

NorfolkSpotter · Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:24 am

What new Routesi i is ii do you see being operated out of ORF? I personally see Southwest adding DAL LAS PHX OAK STL TPA and maybe BOS. Delta or American could add LAX. I see American also adding PHX too. Alaska could add SEA in the near future. Maybe Spirit could add MCO. Let me know you think about these routes and what else would work.

Coronado990 · Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:56 pm

You're forgetting your biggest west coast counterpart...SAN.

rajincajun01 · Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:52 pm

Southwest will not add that many transcons quickly, or even within five years without a huge boom in the area. DEN becoming year round is most likely first. Getting BNA service would be a better choice to feed passengers to places like STL and PHX then starting the new routes.

DL and AA won’t likely add LAX because of growth limitations at LAX. They want to capitalize on high yield routes.

FL will probably be where the most growth happens in the near future.

jplatts · Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:58 pm

NorfolkSpotter wrote:
I personally see Southwest adding DAL LAS PHX OAK STL TPA and maybe BOS.

WN has more than enough room at DAL to add Saturday-only nonstop service to ORF from DAL since WN will only be operating 147 departures on Saturdays in June 2019. While I do not expect WN to add daily nonstop service to ORF from DAL with WN having limited room to expand at DAL, WN could add Saturday-only nonstop service to ORF from DAL.

SANFan · Sun Oct 14, 2018 5:46 pm

I can't even count the number of threads lately that have included discussions of service to ORF but before you go to far with this one, you need to look at the traffic stats out of ORF. I'm not taking the time to look any up right now but I would bet that, for example, ORF-LAX is nowhere near enough traffic to consider a nonstop flight.

OTOH, ORF-SAN certainly has the numbers but a majority of the traffic is military and that's a whole different ballgame. (Same with SEA btw.) Again, discussed a lot recently.

I hope this thread keeps things in perspective and real.

BTW, I visited ORF a few weeks ago and what a beautiful airport, the terminal tucked away in the trees and all. It renewed my hope of seeing ORF-SAN sometime sooner rather than later! AS, F9 or even WN or NK have to be looking at making the routé work. (The average PDEW for 2017, SAN-ORF was 145, according to DOT stats, table 1A! That is a nonstop waiting to happen.)

bb

NorfolkSpotter · Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:38 pm

Can you send me the link to the DOT stats? Thanks!

SANFan · Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:28 pm

NorfolkSpotter wrote:
Can you send me the link to the DOT stats? Thanks!

Unfortunately, they've completely changed the presentation of the pax stats and I'm still trying to figure out how to access the info I want. But I think everything is still there as XL spread sheets thru 2017. Good luck wading thru everything and here's the link to the starting page...
https://www.transportation.gov/policy/a ... are-report

Note: most of the ORF data is usually best if found in Table 1A due to ORF being considered a co-terminal with PHF. This table separates ORF and PHF. Otherwise, if you use the other main source of pax data by city pair, Table 6, you'll find 'ORF' listed but it's the combined ORF and PHF data.

bb

NorfolkSpotter · Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:29 pm

Thanks!

flybaby · Sun Nov 18, 2018 2:24 pm

Allegiant will be resuming service to JAX starting May 16. Starts off as 2x weekly (like this summer), then rises to 3x weekly starting mid-June.

Times are similar to this summer’s schedule. The flight is performed using the equipment which originates in St. Pete for the ORF-PIE flight.

dragon6172 · Sun Nov 18, 2018 2:57 pm

SWA is adding Sat and Sun service to BNA and Sunday nonstop to SAN next summer.

KICT · Sun Nov 18, 2018 3:11 pm

dragon6172 wrote:
SWA is adding Sat and Sun service to BNA and Sunday nonstop to SAN next summer.

Source? First I've heard of SAN-ORF n/s.

dragon6172 · Sun Nov 18, 2018 3:30 pm

KICT wrote:
dragon6172 wrote:
SWA is adding Sat and Sun service to BNA and Sunday nonstop to SAN next summer.

Source? First I've heard of SAN-ORF n/s.

https://www.wavy.com/news/local-news/no ... 1601171452

SANFan · Sun Nov 18, 2018 3:50 pm

KICT wrote:
dragon6172 wrote:
SWA is adding ... Sunday nonstop to SAN next summer.

Source? First I've heard of SAN-ORF n/s.

If anyone's interested, we've got a bit of a discussion going on at the SAN thread about ORF-SAN beginning June 9. Here: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1382837

bb

NorfolkSpotter · Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:54 pm

Happy New Year everyone! I thought this would be a good time to post my predictions for ORF in 2019!

American
ORF-ORD (ORD is already served by AA, although I believe this will become a sessional mainline route most likely operating with the A319)
ORF-PHL (PHL is already a destination from ORF, but just like ORD I believe this will become a mainline service seasonally)

Delta
ORF-MSP (MSP is already served by Delta, but I imagine this route will become Mainline in the summer, most likely operated by the A319)
ORF-DTW (Just like MSP, I bet this will be a new Mainline route for delta, using the A320 or 737-800)
ORF-SLC (seasonally, most likely operated by a E175)

United
ORF-SFO (this will most likely be added soon because the passenger numbers are high for this route, most likely to be operated by a 737-700 or an A319)

Southwest
ORF-STL (this seems unlikely, but I have a feeling this may happen due to relatively high passenger numbers to ORF and the growing WN hub in St Louis)
ORF-DAL (DAL is a hub for WN and has decent passenger numbers for ORF)
ORF-MSY(decent passenger numbers, WN hub)

Alleigant
ORF-LAS (most likely to be added to compeat with Frontier)
ORF-CVG (passenger numbers are decent, although I doubt this will happen in 2019)

Frontier
ORF-AUS
ORF-DAL
ORF-MYR
(All of these will be added due to decent passenger numbers)

Alaskan
ORF-SAN
ORF-SEA
(Alaska will most likely come to ORF due to the booming passenger numbers for the West Coast)

Air Canada
ORF-YYZ (this will most likely be a seasonal service, but will most likely be added as a gateway into Canada for passengers)

So what did you guys think? Some of these may be a far stretch, but still could happen! Let me know what you think below!

RL757PVD · Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:59 pm

I wonder if G4 could make PVD-ORF work with the Navy connection. The fact that its not well served from BOS could help that too.

NorfolkSpotter · Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:32 pm

I bet ORF-PVD could be added by G4 or F9

SANFan · Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:50 pm

NorfolkSpotter wrote:
Happy New Year everyone! I thought this would be a good time to post my predictions for ORF in 2019!

American
ORF-ORD (ORD is already served by AA, although I believe this will become a sessional mainline route most likely operating with the A319)
ORF-PHL (PHL is already a destination from ORF, but just like ORD I believe this will become a mainline service seasonally)

Delta
ORF-MSP (MSP is already served by Delta, but I imagine this route will become Mainline in the summer, most likely operated by the A319)
ORF-DTW (Just like MSP, I bet this will be a new Mainline route for delta, using the A320 or 737-800)
ORF-SLC (seasonally, most likely operated by a E175)

United
ORF-SFO (this will most likely be added soon because the passenger numbers are high for this route, most likely to be operated by a 737-700 or an A319)

Southwest
ORF-STL (this seems unlikely, but I have a feeling this may happen due to relatively high passenger numbers to ORF and the growing WN hub in St Louis)
ORF-DAL (DAL is a hub for WN and has decent passenger numbers for ORF)
ORF-MSY(decent passenger numbers, WN hub)

Alleigant
ORF-LAS (most likely to be added to compeat with Frontier)
ORF-CVG (passenger numbers are decent, although I doubt this will happen in 2019)

Frontier
ORF-AUS
ORF-DAL
ORF-MYR
(All of these will be added due to decent passenger numbers)

Alaskan
ORF-SAN
ORF-SEA
(Alaska will most likely come to ORF due to the booming passenger numbers for the West Coast)

Air Canada
ORF-YYZ (this will most likely be a seasonal service, but will most likely be added as a gateway into Canada for passengers)

So what did you guys think? Some of these may be a far stretch, but still could happen! Let me know what you think below!

First of all, the airline name is "Alaska". You use two different names and I know they're not in your area yet so you are forgiven for the confusion!

I think you are extremely optimistic in your predictions (wish-list) and you will probably be lucky to see maybe a couple of them happen in 2019. Have you looked at the DOT stats discussed up-thread showing the number of pax in U.S. city-pairs? I would suggest that might give you some realistic direction for your predictions.

I do hope Norfolk will see some exciting things this year, particularly a daily flight to SAN, upgraded from the current WN once-a-week service starting June 9. I appreciate your exuberance 'Spotter and I trust you'll keep us updated with what actually does happen at ORF this year!

bb

NorfolkSpotter · Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:58 pm

I’m noticed that I used Alaskan instead of Alaska after posting. I’m also aware of some of these routes probably won’t happen, but 2019 will definitely be interesting!

FA9295 · Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:00 pm

NorfolkSpotter wrote:
I’m noticed that I used Alaskan instead of Alaska after posting. I’m also aware of some of these routes probably won’t happen, but 2019 will definitely be interesting!

I've seen many people call them Alaskan. Don't worry about it.

flybaby · Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:53 am

Yeah, unfortunately I also think Spotter is overly optimistic.

The only prediction I will make personally is that ORF-JAX goes year-round on G4 at the end of the summer (although the mid-week frequency may be dropped). If this happens then G4 would be serving all of the big metros (i.e., 1.5mil+ pop) in Florida from ORF year-round.

KICT · Sat Jan 05, 2019 2:07 pm

They need to rebuild the concourses. The main terminal is actually fine, but the concourse fingers need work...

I'm old enough to remember when there was a transatlantic announcement to ORF from Kent on Monarch. Equipment was scheduled as A300, but unfortunately the flights never actually launched.

NorfolkSpotter · Sat Jan 05, 2019 3:48 pm

Definitely the concorse needs a lot of work. Another idea people have had is to close down ORF and RIC, and build a new airport halfway between the current cities. That plan in my opinion is a good idea, although there are multiple problems with it. I do remember the transatlantic service announcement when I was very young and it is unfortunate that it was never launched.

ElroyJetson · Sat Jan 05, 2019 4:11 pm

ORF has been pretty sleepy for a while. It is a military town without much of a business base. The entire tidewater area is growing very slowly in term of population (the metro grew 2.9% from 2000-2017 while Richmond grew 7.1% as an example).

There are opportunities at ORF, but I think you might be a little over optimistic.

SANFan · Sat Jan 05, 2019 4:19 pm

NorfolkSpotter wrote:
Definitely the concorse needs a lot of work. Another idea people have had is to close down ORF and RIC, and build a new airport halfway between the current cities. That plan in my opinion is a good idea, although there are multiple problems with it. I do remember the transatlantic service announcement when I was very young and it is unfortunate that it was never launched.

Nice idea but what about PHF? It seems to me that ORF and PHF need consolidation of some sort and if RIC wants in on the action as well, great -- another Tri-Cities airport.
It does seem there are way too many airports in the area and that of course affects air service levels to each one.

One multi-city airport sounds great, as long as everyone can agree on the site, financing, etc. The more serious discussions get, the more likely these great ideas get sent to the shredder!

bb

PVD757 · Sat Jan 05, 2019 4:46 pm

Still wish someone would look at ORF-PVD.

flybaby · Sat Jan 05, 2019 6:07 pm

SANFan wrote:
NorfolkSpotter wrote:
Definitely the concorse needs a lot of work. Another idea people have had is to close down ORF and RIC, and build a new airport halfway between the current cities. That plan in my opinion is a good idea, although there are multiple problems with it. I do remember the transatlantic service announcement when I was very young and it is unfortunate that it was never launched.

Nice idea but what about PHF? It seems to me that ORF and PHF need consolidation of some sort and if RIC wants in on the action as well, great -- another Tri-Cities airport.
It does seem there are way too many airports in the area and that of course affects air service levels to each one.

One multi-city airport sounds great, as long as everyone can agree on the site, financing, etc. The more serious discussions get, the more likely these great ideas get sent to the shredder!

bb

The problem, besides the distance between the Southside of Hampton Roads and either Richmond or just PHF is of course is road traffic - both getting across the water from the Southside to the Peninsula as well as within the Peninsula.

Just getting from the Virginia Beach Oceanfront to PHF takes almost an hour, and that’s without any traffic. Add a little bit of tunnel congestion and it can easily take an hour and a half. If a new airport would be built closer to Richmond it would take even longer than that.

An option might be an airport off of US460 somewhere but then I think it would be far for just about everyone.

flybaby · Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:25 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
ORF has been pretty sleepy for a while. It is a military town without much of a business base. The entire tidewater area is growing very slowly in term of population (the metro grew 2.9% from 2000-2017 while Richmond grew 7.1% as an example).

...

Unfortunately, this is kind of a self-reinforcing cycle. It was widely reported that one of the significant factors that influenced Norfolk-Southern’s recent decision to move its headquarters away from its namesake city are the limited air travel options from ORF.

ElroyJetson · Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:54 pm

flybaby wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
ORF has been pretty sleepy for a while. It is a military town without much of a business base. The entire tidewater area is growing very slowly in term of population (the metro grew 2.9% from 2000-2017 while Richmond grew 7.1% as an example).

...

Unfortunately, this is kind of a self-reinforcing cycle. It was widely reported that one of the significant factors that influenced Norfolk-Southern’s recent decision to move its headquarters away from its namesake city are the limited air travel options from ORF.

Agreed.

The are only two Fortune 500 Companies based in Tidewater. They are Dollar Tree in Chesapeake and Huntington Ingails in Newport News. There are none in Norfolk.

Richmond has eight Fortune 500 companies. The Altria Group, Performance Food Group, Car Max, Dominion Resources, West Rock, Owens & Minor, Genworth Financial and Markel.

http://www.virginiabusiness.com/news/ar ... -companies

Is it any wonder RIC has surpassed Norfolk in terms of pax numbers? The Military is the primary industry in the Norfolk area, and other than some ttraffic to SAN much of it goes up I 64 and I 95 to the DC area via car to the Pentagon or to Quantico.

NorfolkSpotter · Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:32 pm

flybaby wrote:
SANFan wrote:
NorfolkSpotter wrote:
Definitely the concorse needs a lot of work. Another idea people have had is to close down ORF and RIC, and build a new airport halfway between the current cities. That plan in my opinion is a good idea, although there are multiple problems with it. I do remember the transatlantic service announcement when I was very young and it is unfortunate that it was never launched.

Nice idea but what about PHF? It seems to me that ORF and PHF need consolidation of some sort and if RIC wants in on the action as well, great -- another Tri-Cities airport.
It does seem there are way too many airports in the area and that of course affects air service levels to each one.

One multi-city airport sounds great, as long as everyone can agree on the site, financing, etc. The more serious discussions get, the more likely these great ideas get sent to the shredder!

bb

The problem, besides the distance between the Southside of Hampton Roads and either Richmond or just PHF is of course is road traffic - both getting across the water from the Southside to the Peninsula as well as within the Peninsula.

Just getting from the Virginia Beach Oceanfront to PHF takes almost an hour, and that’s without any traffic. Add a little bit of tunnel congestion and it can easily take an hour and a half. If a new airport would be built closer to Richmond it would take even longer than that.

An option might be an airport off of US460 somewhere but then I think it would be far for just about everyone.

Building the airport of US460 is probably the best option. Even though it’s in the middle of nowhere, there’s plenty of room for a new expressway to the airport to be constructed. In addition, there is a railway that runs parallel to US460 which means an airport express could be easily built.

flybaby · Sun Jan 06, 2019 3:23 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
flybaby wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
ORF has been pretty sleepy for a while. It is a military town without much of a business base. The entire tidewater area is growing very slowly in term of population (the metro grew 2.9% from 2000-2017 while Richmond grew 7.1% as an example).

...

Unfortunately, this is kind of a self-reinforcing cycle. It was widely reported that one of the significant factors that influenced Norfolk-Southern’s recent decision to move its headquarters away from its namesake city are the limited air travel options from ORF.

Agreed.

The are only two Fortune 500 Companies based in Tidewater. They are Dollar Tree in Chesapeake and Huntington Ingails in Newport News. There are none in Norfolk.

Richmond has eight Fortune 500 companies. The Altria Group, Performance Food Group, Car Max, Dominion Resources, West Rock, Owens & Minor, Genworth Financial and Markel.

http://www.virginiabusiness.com/news/ar ... -companies

Is it any wonder RIC has surpassed Norfolk in terms of pax numbers? The Military is the primary industry in the Norfolk area, and other than some ttraffic to SAN much of it goes up I 64 and I 95 to the DC area via car to the Pentagon or to Quantico.

My gut feel is that the extra growth experienced at RIC is due mostly to PHF losing AirTran, which, coupled with RIC’s aggressive (and successful) recruiting efforts aimed at LCCs several years back meant that most of the 600K annual pax that evaporated from PHF after 2012 probably ended up in RIC.

ElroyJetson · Sun Jan 06, 2019 3:49 am

flybaby wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
flybaby wrote:

Unfortunately, this is kind of a self-reinforcing cycle. It was widely reported that one of the significant factors that influenced Norfolk-Southern’s recent decision to move its headquarters away from its namesake city are the limited air travel options from ORF.

Agreed.

The are only two Fortune 500 Companies based in Tidewater. They are Dollar Tree in Chesapeake and Huntington Ingails in Newport News. There are none in Norfolk.

Richmond has eight Fortune 500 companies. The Altria Group, Performance Food Group, Car Max, Dominion Resources, West Rock, Owens & Minor, Genworth Financial and Markel.

http://www.virginiabusiness.com/news/ar ... -companies

Is it any wonder RIC has surpassed Norfolk in terms of pax numbers? The Military is the primary industry in the Norfolk area, and other than some ttraffic to SAN much of it goes up I 64 and I 95 to the DC area via car to the Pentagon or to Quantico.

My gut feel is that the extra growth experienced at RIC is due mostly to PHF losing AirTran, which, coupled with RIC’s aggressive (and successful) recruiting efforts aimed at LCCs several years back meant that most of the 600K annual pax that evaporated from PHF after 2012 probably ended up in RIC.

Excellent points imho.

atcsundevil · Sun Jan 06, 2019 5:19 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
The are only two Fortune 500 Companies based in Tidewater. They are Dollar Tree in Chesapeake and Huntington Ingails in Newport News. There are none in Norfolk.

Richmond has eight Fortune 500 companies. The Altria Group, Performance Food Group, Car Max, Dominion Resources, West Rock, Owens & Minor, Genworth Financial and Markel.

http://www.virginiabusiness.com/news/ar ... -companies

Is it any wonder RIC has surpassed Norfolk in terms of pax numbers? The Military is the primary industry in the Norfolk area, and other than some ttraffic to SAN much of it goes up I 64 and I 95 to the DC area via car to the Pentagon or to Quantico.

I'm surprised Norfolk Southern isn't Fortune 500. I guess they aren't as big as I thought they were. They certainly fly their bizjets in and out of ORF often enough.

I think the idea of consolidating RIC/ORF/PHF into a centralized airport is a nice idea in theory. However, it would be hugely expensive, and it would inconvenience just about everyone. ORF and RIC exist separately just fine, and each have growth opportunities, RIC in particular. ORF would definitely benefit from a facelift just like RIC did ten years ago though. Enhancing the passenger experience always helps, but the biggest lift would come from increased LCC/ULCC service. Most passengers will take price over convenience or amenities. PHF's rise 15 years ago with AirTran is a testament to that fact.

Q · Sun Jan 06, 2019 5:22 am

Two or three years later British Airways may be coming to Norfolk on a B787. You never know. LOL

Q

shaneam12 · Sun Jan 06, 2019 5:25 am

atcsundevil wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
The are only two Fortune 500 Companies based in Tidewater. They are Dollar Tree in Chesapeake and Huntington Ingails in Newport News. There are none in Norfolk.

Richmond has eight Fortune 500 companies. The Altria Group, Performance Food Group, Car Max, Dominion Resources, West Rock, Owens & Minor, Genworth Financial and Markel.

http://www.virginiabusiness.com/news/ar ... -companies

Is it any wonder RIC has surpassed Norfolk in terms of pax numbers? The Military is the primary industry in the Norfolk area, and other than some ttraffic to SAN much of it goes up I 64 and I 95 to the DC area via car to the Pentagon or to Quantico.

I'm surprised Norfolk Southern isn't Fortune 500. I guess they aren't as big as I thought they were. They certainly fly their bizjets in and out of ORF often enough.

I think the idea of consolidating RIC/ORF/PHF into a centralized airport is a nice idea in theory. However, it would be hugely expensive, and it would inconvenience just about everyone. ORF and RIC exist separately just fine, and each have growth opportunities, RIC in particular. ORF would definitely benefit from a facelift just like RIC did ten years ago though. Enhancing the passenger experience always helps, but the biggest lift would come from increased LCC/ULCC service. Most passengers will take price over convenience or amenities. PHF's rise 15 years ago with AirTran is a testament to that fact.

Norfolk Southern is actually a Fortune 500 company, however, they recently announced they will unfortunately be moving their HQ from Norfolk to Atlanta.

flybaby · Sun Jan 06, 2019 4:26 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
...
I'm surprised Norfolk Southern isn't Fortune 500. I guess they aren't as big as I thought they were. They certainly fly their bizjets in and out of ORF often enough.

I think the idea of consolidating RIC/ORF/PHF into a centralized airport is a nice idea in theory. However, it would be hugely expensive, and it would inconvenience just about everyone. ORF and RIC exist separately just fine, and each have growth opportunities, RIC in particular. ORF would definitely benefit from a facelift just like RIC did ten years ago though. Enhancing the passenger experience always helps, but the biggest lift would come from increased LCC/ULCC service. Most passengers will take price over convenience or amenities. PHF's rise 15 years ago with AirTran is a testament to that fact.

Norfolk Southern is in the Fortune 500. The OP probably didn’t include them since they’ve already announced that they are moving the HQ to Megalanta (in part due to the deficiencies in commercial air service out of ORF).

ORF has done some investments in the airside recently. The restroooms and security screenings have been completely redone although personally I would have tried to reconfigure the airside in such a way as to have just one security screening area for both concourses as that is a more efficient way of handling passengers.

Yeah, a combined airport near US460 serving both metro areas would be too far from the Richmond and Hampton Roads population centers to be convenient, especially since Virginia can’t seem to get its act together when it comes to overall transportation planning (hence the debacle known as Interstate 73 (I-73).

I agree about the increased lift from LCC service being key to growth. ORF is finally starting to post some decent pax increases and I would attribute a lot of that to it finally getting some new LCC blood, which not only offers increased service and destinations but also keeps the legacies on their competitive toes. Those legacies have not treated smaller mid-sized markets particuarly well in recent years with high fares and even-greater forced funneling of most passengers through hubs, which has given an opening to the NKs, G4s, and F9s to swoop in and capture marketshare and lower prices. Allegiant has said that one of their specific growth areas is looking for underserved point-to-point routes involving mid-sized markets (at least at one end) that are being ignored by the majors. (Hopefully this will continue despite the departure of Lukas Johnson and distractions from non-core avaiation activities they seem to be getting themselves involved with.)

NorfolkSpotter · Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:20 am

I think ORF has a bright future, the only problems I can see if , if the government shutdown lasts a long time, RIC competition, and possible issues with the 2nd runway

NorfolkSpotter · Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:45 pm

G4 just announced seasonal service to CVG and CLE from ORF.

Dominion301 · Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:50 pm

NorfolkSpotter wrote:
G4 just announced seasonal service to CVG and CLE from ORF.

Wow those are surprises, but good for ORF.

NorfolkSpotter · Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:53 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
NorfolkSpotter wrote:
G4 just announced seasonal service to CVG and CLE from ORF.

Wow those are surprises, but good for ORF.

Aggreed. The airport director for ORF said “Both Cincinnati and Cleveland are high tourist origins for our region. Allegiant’s new service from these cities into Norfolk International Airport will have a direct local economic impact on lodging, dining and other services.” I can kinda see where he’s coming from but I’m still surprised. If you wanna see where he said this here you go: https://www.norfolkairport.com/sites/de ... 0FINAL.pdf

PVD757 · Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:08 am

G4 needs to do ORF-PVD too.

bigb · Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:13 am

NorfolkSpotter wrote:
Happy New Year everyone! I thought this would be a good time to post my predictions for ORF in 2019!

American
ORF-ORD (ORD is already served by AA, although I believe this will become a sessional mainline route most likely operating with the A319)
ORF-PHL (PHL is already a destination from ORF, but just like ORD I believe this will become a mainline service seasonally)

Delta
ORF-MSP (MSP is already served by Delta, but I imagine this route will become Mainline in the summer, most likely operated by the A319)
ORF-DTW (Just like MSP, I bet this will be a new Mainline route for delta, using the A320 or 737-800)
ORF-SLC (seasonally, most likely operated by a E175)

United
ORF-SFO (this will most likely be added soon because the passenger numbers are high for this route, most likely to be operated by a 737-700 or an A319)

Southwest
ORF-STL (this seems unlikely, but I have a feeling this may happen due to relatively high passenger numbers to ORF and the growing WN hub in St Louis)
ORF-DAL (DAL is a hub for WN and has decent passenger numbers for ORF)
ORF-MSY(decent passenger numbers, WN hub)

Alleigant
ORF-LAS (most likely to be added to compeat with Frontier)
ORF-CVG (passenger numbers are decent, although I doubt this will happen in 2019)

Frontier
ORF-AUS
ORF-DAL
ORF-MYR
(All of these will be added due to decent passenger numbers)

Alaskan
ORF-SAN
ORF-SEA
(Alaska will most likely come to ORF due to the booming passenger numbers for the West Coast)

Air Canada
ORF-YYZ (this will most likely be a seasonal service, but will most likely be added as a gateway into Canada for passengers)

So what did you guys think? Some of these may be a far stretch, but still could happen! Let me know what you think below!

Unfortunately I don’t think American will put mainline on ORF-PHL considering ORF is a PSA maintenance based. They have finally made the ORF-PHL a CR7 run with a a single CRJ-200 in Sunday’s. I think DCA will get a similar treatment when when the new regional terminal is completed in DCA.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

stlgph · Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:22 am

NorfolkSpotter wrote:
G4 just announced seasonal service to CVG and CLE from ORF.

Nice adds to see. If these go well, would be curious to see if IND would be brought into the mix. The two markets are right in that sweet spot for Allegiant.

NorfolkSpotter · Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:51 pm

Yeah, I wonder if they will eventually add LCK too.

flybaby · Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:44 pm

In case anyone is interested, here are the nonstop enplanement load factors out of ORF for July 2018 [number of departures in brackets]:

96% [9] St. Petersburg, FL (PIE)
94% [9] Jacksonville, FL (JAX)
92% [40] Denver, CO (DEN)
92% [40] Houston, TX (IAH)
91% [137] Newark, NJ (EWR)
90% [9] Sanford, FL (SFB)
89% [40] Orlando, FL (MCO)
89% [66] Chicago, IL (MDW)
89% [243] Charlotte, NC (CLT)
88% [207] Chicago, IL (ORD)
87% [11] Fort Lauderdale, FL (FLL)
87% [250] Atlanta, GA (ATL)
86% [122] Washington, DC (IAD)
86% [111] Detroit, MI (DTW)
85% [160] Philadelphia, PA (PHL)
83% [130] New York, NY (JFK)
82% [90] Miami, FL (MIA)
82% [84] Dallas/Fort Worth, TX (DFW)
81% [138] Baltimore, MD (BWI)
79% [31] Boston, MA (BOS)
77% [26] Minneapolis, MN (MSP)
75% [217] New York, NY (LGA)
74% [84] Washington, DC (DCA)

Just a couple of quick observations:

Looks like Denver is doing very well... IMHO just more proof that a West Coast nonstop is really needed.

JAX has the second highest LF... hard to believe it took this long for someone to restart service on this route since Southwest halted it years ago.

NorfolkSpotter · Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:57 pm

flybaby wrote:
In case anyone is interested, here are the nonstop enplanement load factors out of ORF for July 2018 [number of departures in brackets]:

96% [9] St. Petersburg, FL (PIE)
94% [9] Jacksonville, FL (JAX)
92% [40] Denver, CO (DEN)
92% [40] Houston, TX (IAH)
91% [137] Newark, NJ (EWR)
90% [9] Sanford, FL (SFB)
89% [40] Orlando, FL (MCO)
89% [66] Chicago, IL (MDW)
89% [243] Charlotte, NC (CLT)
88% [207] Chicago, IL (ORD)
87% [11] Fort Lauderdale, FL (FLL)
87% [250] Atlanta, GA (ATL)
86% [122] Washington, DC (IAD)
86% [111] Detroit, MI (DTW)
85% [160] Philadelphia, PA (PHL)
83% [130] New York, NY (JFK)
82% [90] Miami, FL (MIA)
82% [84] Dallas/Fort Worth, TX (DFW)
81% [138] Baltimore, MD (BWI)
79% [31] Boston, MA (BOS)
77% [26] Minneapolis, MN (MSP)
75% [217] New York, NY (LGA)
74% [84] Washington, DC (DCA)

Just a couple of quick observations:

Looks like Denver is doing very well... IMHO just more proof that a West Coast nonstop is really needed.

JAX has the second highest LF... hard to believe it took this long for someone to restart service on this route since Southwest halted it years ago.

I definitely agree with you! It’s amazing it took a while to get JAX service back! We are getting direct to the West Coast this summer when Southwest adds their SAN route. I also predict we’ll be getting UAL to SFO soon and possibly SEA on Alaska or Delta.

jplatts · Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:44 pm

NorfolkSpotter wrote:
I definitely agree with you! It’s amazing it took a while to get JAX service back! We are getting direct to the West Coast this summer when Southwest adds their SAN route. I also predict we’ll be getting UAL to SFO soon and possibly SEA on Alaska or Delta.

I think that AS is more likely to add ORF-SEA than DL is since (a) CVG is currently the only North American destination served nonstop from SEA on DL that isn't currently served by AS, (b) AS has recently started PIT-SEA nonstop service, (c) AS will be starting ELP-SEA nonstop service on February 19th, (d) AS will be starting CMH-SEA nonstop service on March 7th, and (e) AS is still expanding in the SEA/PAE market.

I agree that UA adding ORF-SFO nonstop service might happen since (a) UA had added nonstop service to its SFO hub from CVG, DTW, and MSN during the last 2 years and (b) UA will be starting nonstop service to SFO from CMH, PAE, and RAP this year.

NorfolkSpotter · Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:14 pm

United could definitely make SFO work, and I wonder if they are currently discussing it with the airport

flybaby · Wed Feb 13, 2019 6:28 pm

Some LCC updates...

G4: As previously suspected, JAX does appear to be going year-round. PIE and FLL are going on a one-month hiatus in September. CVG and CLE trial end in August. Depending on how they do, I suppose they might come back next year.

Meanwhile, F9, in keeping with it’s “dartboard” methodology is not extending TPA beyond April.

Southwest 1x weekly to SAN ending August 4. Wow, that was short.

flymco753 · Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:34 pm

DL currently has 4x E175 planned for ORF-DTW this summer. This is by far the most capacity this route has seen since PMNW.

BTVB6Flyer · Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:27 am

flybaby wrote:
Some LCC updates...

G4: As previously suspected, JAX does appear to be going year-round. PIE and FLL are going on a one-month hiatus in September. CVG and CLE trial end in August. Depending on how they do, I suppose they might come back next year.

Meanwhile, F9, in keeping with it’s “dartboard” methodology is not extending TPA beyond April.

Southwest 1x weekly to SAN ending August 4. Wow, that was short.

TPA was announced as seasonal from the get go. Will it come back for the winter is the question and that part is still TBD has they haven't extended their schedule that far out yet.

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